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Cole Hamels Rumors: Sunday

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The Angels, Dodgers, Rangers, Pirates, Tigers, Marlins, and Giants were reportedly among the teams with scouts in attendance for Cole Hamels' start against the Rockies this afternoon, though keep in mind that a scouting presence does not always imply trade interest in a particular player.  The lefty didn't disappoint, dealing eight innings of one-run ball at Coors Field. The Rangers sent Don Welke, the senior special assistant to GM Jon Daniels, to Denver and Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com reports Texas wants Hamels bad. Here are the latest rumors on the prized left-hander with the latest up top:

  • Hamels doesn't seem concerned about his uncertain future, telling reporters after his victory, "That's the least of my worries."
  • The Phillies' forthcoming offer to Hamels is "expected to be in the ballpark that they know the left-hander will want, this close to free agency," tweets ESPN's Buster Olney.  I'm guessing Hamels would have his eye on a contract worth $23-25MM annually over six-plus years, if he reaches free agency. – Tim Dierkes
  • The Phillies are still "trying like heck" to sign Hamels, reports Salisbury.
  • The Dodgers and Phillies have had discussions about Hamels, but the Phillies aren't thrilled with the players they would receive in return, according to Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com. The Dodgers could become more aggressive in their pursuit with news that Chad Billingsley is suffering from elbow issues.
  • The Phillies have a scout attending the Angels–Yankees game fueling speculation the Halos could be in on Hamels, writes Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. Heyman lists 10 teams that could be interested in Hamels, as well as the Brewers' Zack Greinke.
  • In the same piece, Heyman quotes one official who says there's a 30% chance the Phillies sign Hamels to a long-term extension.
  • Outside executives believe the Phillies will work feverishly to extend Hamels rather than trade him, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Sherman provides three reasons for such a theory, including that it's harder than ever to land a commensurate package for a star in his walk year given the rule changes in the new collective bargaining agreement. 

Quick Hits: Sheets, Athletics, Twins

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After missing two years due to elbow injuries, righty Ben Sheets made a triumphant comeback start today as a member of the Braves, tossing six scoreless innings against the Mets for the win.  Should Sheets manage a dozen decent starts for the Braves, the minor league signing will stand as a shrewd under-the-radar move by GM Frank Wren.  Today's shrewd, under-the-radar links:

  • "I feel like myself. That's one thing I can say I never felt like in Oakland," Sheets told reporters today including Carroll Rogers of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.  Sheets signed a one-year, $10MM contract with the A's prior to the 2010 season despite missing all of '09.
  • "It's just as necessary for the Yankees to have young players with a few years of control as it is for the Twins or the A's," GM Billy Beane explained to Tyler Kepner of the New York Times yesterday.  The A's GM has been trading away players further from free agency lately, but this year Beane's club is surprisingly in the mix for a wild card spot.
  • Scouts from the Yankees, Blue Jays, Braves, Mets, Reds, Padres and Nationals have attended recent Francisco Liriano starts, report Phil Mackey and Darren Wolfson of 1500ESPN.com, though some of those clubs may have had other interests.  Slugger Josh Willingham would require a lopsided offer and seems likely to stay put, as we've heard before.  Willingham is signed through 2014 and is interested in staying with the Twins beyond his current contract.
  • Yankees scouting director Damon Oppenheimer had Mike Trout second on his board for the 2009 draft, after only Stephen Strasburg, writes John Harper of the New York Daily News.  The Angels had two consecutive picks at 24 and 25, with the Yankees at 29, and Oppenheimer thought he might get Trout once the Halos took another high school outfielder in Randal Grichuk at 24.  Of course, Angels scouting director Eddie Bane took Trout at 25.  Trout told Harper he's motivated by all the teams that passed on him.
  • The Diamondbacks signed Dominican shortstop Sergio Alcantara, according to Baseball America's Ben Badler.  BA says Alcantara draws praise for his defense, and the D'Backs had been favored to sign him.  BA ranked Alcantara 18th overall in the July 2nd class.

Mariners Aim To Retain Ichiro

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Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik expects to keep right fielder Ichiro Suzuki past the July 31st trade deadline, and also expects the 38-year-old back with the team in 2013, he told Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.  Ichiro remains a "franchise player" in Zduriencik's eyes despite a .260/.286/.348 line so far in 2012.  Ichiro seems to be entering the most difficult phase of a superstar's career, coming up for a new contract as his game declines across the board.  I imagine his $17MM salary would have to be more than cut in half, but if Ichiro's struggles continue, even a starting role will be a debatable choice.

As for Felix Hernandez, Zduriencik continued to hammer home the ace's unavailability.  Instead, Morosi reminds of us Jason Vargas' trade candidacy, noting that "Zduriencik is expected to look for offense in return" for the lefty.

Trade Targets Who Could Bring Draft Pick Compensation

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Recently, Joel Sherman of the New York Post talked to an NL GM who said he does not expect a robust market for rental players this summer.  Under the previous collective bargaining agreement, players acquired in their contract years could still be more than rentals due to draft pick compensation.  But due to a rule in the new CBA, a rental is truly a rental for the 2012 trade deadline: traded players are not eligible for draft pick compensation.  As Sherman notes, that adds extra appeal for someone like Matt Garza — a team acquiring Garza can enjoy him for the rest of 2012 and all of 2013 and then receive a draft pick as compensation if he departs as a free agent.

Keep in mind that for a team to receive draft pick compensation for a departing free agent after the 2012 season, a qualifying offer in the $12.5MM range must be tendered.  Since that amount represents an average of the top 125 salaries, it will increase every year.  It could be dangerous to surrender quality prospects for Garza now partly due to the assumption that he'll be worthy of a $13-14MM qualifying offer after the 2013 season.

Still, take a look at our list of players who, like Garza, project to be eligible for free agency after the 2013 season.  Which could be acquired with a partial eye on draft pick compensation after '13?  Chase Utley has a good amount of no-trade protection, and given time missed due to injury and reduced production, it'd be optimistic to expect a qualifying offer.  Hunter Pence, on the other hand, is a decent bet for such an offer.  Among position players, Corey Hart also has a shot.  Both outfielders figure to be part of their team's 2013 plans, however.

Aside from Garza, Josh Johnson is a starting pitcher to consider.  Johnson has been uncharacteristically hittable this year, but he has been healthy and stands as a candidate for a qualifying offer after '13, should the Marlins decline to extend him again.  Despite their all-in offseason, the Marlins appear a long shot for the playoffs, it is possible they could move Johnson for MLB-ready players.  Jason Vargas has been a hot name on the trade market.  While I think GMs would find it appealing to control Vargas for 2013, I doubt they would have any expectation of making him a qualifying offer afterward.

We haven't discussed Justin Upton types, players who are under control beyond 2013 and seem to be reasonable candidates for future draft pick compensation.  Those are rare players.  Looking only at trade targets eligible for free agency after 2013, the qualifying offer will be a pretty high bar, and future draft pick compensation can't be a primary consideration for an acquiring team. 

Poll: Will The Phillies Extend Cole Hamels?

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The Phillies are reportedly preparing a large extension offer for 28-year-old southpaw Cole Hamels, who shut down the Rockies today at Coors Field in a well-scouted game.  We've heard Hamels expects to be paid as an elite pitcher, so his next contract is surely headed north of $100MM.  In recent months Matt Cain and C.C. Sabathia both chose extensions over the open market, signing five-year contracts worth $112.5MM and $122MM in new money, respectively.

The Cain and Sabathia contracts include reasonable sixth-year vesting options, but that fully guaranteed sixth year is probably what both pitchers sacrificed by signing prior to full-blown free agency bidding wars.  The Phillies already have one starting pitcher megadeal on the books, having created the template by signing Cliff Lee for five years and $120MM plus a vesting option in December 2010.  A year and a half later, a Lee/Cain/Sabathia-type contract would be a reasonable offer from the Phillies for Hamels, but he may want more.  The clock is ticking, because if they can't extend Hamels, the Phillies' best path is probably to trade Hamels for a nice bounty this month.  How do you see it playing out?

Cubs Rumors: Garza, Barney, Wood, Stewart

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Pitching amid trade rumors yet again, 28-year-old Cubs righty Matt Garza blanked the Diamondbacks at Wrigley Field this afternoon, lowering his ERA to 4.02 while being scouted by the Yankees, Blue Jays, Rangers, Tigers, Dodgers, and Pirates, according to ESPN Chicago's Doug Padilla.  With just over two weeks remaining until the trade deadline, Garza may have only a handful of starts remaining as a Cub.  The latest on the club:

  • "The rumor mill can wait," Garza told reporters, because his wife is due in less than a month.  Garza knows he can't control the trade rumors, but noted that he is open to an extension. 
  • According to Padilla, the Tigers have asked about Garza, second baseman Darwin Barney, and starter Ryan Dempster.  Padilla says the Tigers' interest in Barney began over a month ago.  Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports first reported on that situation on July 6th, adding that "talks didn't progress." 
  • "It's nice to know people are interested but I want to be here," Barney told reporters including Padilla after powering the Cubs' victory today with his fourth home run.
  • Fan favorite Kerry Wood visited the Cubs' clubhouse today, telling MLB.com's Rowan Kavner and other reporters he's enjoying his first summer off in 25-plus years.  Wood says his kids are still too young for him to ponder a coaching career.  The former strikeout artist hung up his cleats in May this year.
  • Third baseman Ian Stewart also made an appearance, expressing relief to reporters that a surgeon finally found the cause of his persistent wrist problems.  The solution involved removing a bone from Stewart's wrist, and he currently has no timetable for his return.  The 27-year-old's salary would likely remain in the $2.2MM range if the Cubs decide to tender him this winter and try again in 2013.  Including Stewart, Cubs third basemen have tallied a dismal .223/.297/.374 so far in the post-Aramis era.
  • It "wouldn't be cool" to see rotation-mate and mentor Dempster traded, Jeff Samardzija told Rick Morrissey of the Chicago Sun-Times yesterday.  The Cubs are best-served trading Dempster now to clear a path for a Garza deal later this month, opined ESPN's Buster Olney earlier today.

MLBTR Originals

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A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR this past week:

West Notes: Upton, Colon, Bloomquist, Billingsley

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Colorado is the epicenter of scouting activity this afternoon as Cole Hamels starts against the Rockies. The Angels, Dodgers, and Rangers are scouting the Phillie left-hander, according to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports (Twitter links). The Tigers are on hand taking a look at Marco Scutaro, tweets Tracy Ringolsby of Root Sports.  Here's the rest of the news from the AL and NL West with the most recent up top:

Justin Upton Rumors: Sunday

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Yesterday, Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers told reporters that he spoke with Justin Upton about the trade rumors surrounding him and said that he would let him know if a deal is near.  Could a trade for the outfielder be around the corner?  Here's today's news on Upton with the latest up top..

  • There's "nothing serious" with Upton, tweets Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. Heyman also hears the Pirates are "probably not a fit" because they will not include Cole or Taillon.
  • The Yankees are scouting the Diamondbacks and Cubs this weekend, tweets Jon Morosi of FOX Sports.
  • The Pirates‬ have a scout watching Upton in Chicago this weekend, tweets Morosi.
  • The Pirates are serious about Upton and are sending signals they could include Starling Marte in an Upton deal, but not Gerrit Cole or Jameson Taillon, tweets Jayson Stark of ESPN.com.
  • The Athletics were on Upton's no-trade list at one point but are no longer one of those four teams, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.  The Yankees are now on his list but the other three clubs are not yet known.  Oakland may not be a perfect fit for Upton but Rosenthal expects GM Billy Beane to inquire on him.

Cashman On Cano, Granderson, Trades, Outfield

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Yankees General Manager Brian Cashman spoke with reporters prior to today's game against the Angels and Marc Carig of The Star-Ledger has the goods..

  • Cashman implied that the Yankees might break policy and explore contract extensions early this winter with both Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson.  The Yankees hold club options in 2013 for both Cano ($15MM) and Granderson ($13MM) but may be motivated to extend both before they hit the open market.  The Yanks want to get their payroll below $189MM in 2014 to avoid stiff penalties and could make the numbers work if they lock in both players early.
  • Cashman doesn't want to overpay to make improvements at the deadline that will only be "marginal."  He wouldn't rule out some activity before the July 31 but he's "very skeptical" about the chances of finding something worthwhile on the market.
  • The GM said that he wanted to avoid wearing Raul Ibanez and Andruw Jones thin by playing them in the outfield but he seems content to wait on Brett Gardner's return rather than overspend for an outfielder via trade.

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