The Diamondbacks are willing to listen to trade offers for Justin Upton, the 24-year-old outfielder who finished fourth in National League MVP voting a year ago. Teams are already checking in on Upton, and interest is said to be “huge.” Here’s the latest on the Diamondbacks and their right fielder:
- The Diamondbacks are seriously open to the idea of trading Upton, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic confirms. The organization has outfield depth in the Majors and minors, so the club could replace his production in the short term. Some decision makers in the organization don’t seem crazy about Upton, as the recent comments of managing general partner Ken Kendrick suggest.
- The Diamondbacks would be looking for a third baseman, shortstop or top-of-the-rotation starter if they trade Upton, Piecoro reports.
- The Pirates are interested but they don’t match up well with Arizona, Piecoro writes. It’s possible the Blue Jays could be a fit, however. The Diamondbacks are known to like shortstop prospect Adeiny Hechavarria, though he wouldn’t be enough to tempt the Diamondbacks.
If the Reds could get him without giving up Billy Hamilton I’d be all for it.
I would like to have Upton to and love Billy Hamilton but how many other REDS fans would trade Hamilton for Upton just to say bye bye to Stubbs!
Upton isn’t a CF. Hasn’t played the position since 2007 in AA. There are plenty that would give up Hamilton though regardless, but most of those place minimal to no value on prospects even though there are times the entire Reds starting team with the exception of Phillips were produced by the farm.
Keep Hamilton, I think they could still clear the farm and offer a solid deal for Upton without him. Something like Corcino, Gregerious, Lotzkar, and Heisey.
By this time 2013 this could be the starting lineup if that happend
Hamitlon-CF
Phillips-2b
Votto-1B
Upton-LF
Bruce-RF
Fraiser-3B
Haniraco-C
Cozart-SS
That being said I don’t see how the Pirates don’t match up with the D-Backs if they are after pitching.
Arizona has some of the best pitching depth in the minors (they’re in a group with the Pirates and Mariners). What they need are position players. That’s why they don’t match up as well with the Pirates.
Id give anyone up aslong as it meant bye bye to Stubbs lol. actually just about anyone in the minors except hamilton. that kid is going to break ricky hendersons SB record if he steals bags like he is in the minors.
I would trade castellanos and porcello to get this done for the tigers
No
lol that wont happen. the tigers need pitching not offense. you guys are really trying to be the new york yankees/boston redsox of the future lol.
A lot of people are split on what the tigers need. We need offense/defense more than pitching. Fister is having a rough year because well he is a gb pitcher and if you watch the games the runs he allows are usually from ground balls that just get through the porous infield. We are at -30 runs saved this year, second worse in the bigs. We have verlander, scherzer, porcello, fister, smyly, turner, and crosby. Teams that are this bad defensively have usually made up for it with great offense which we dont have at the moment(see 2005 Yankees). I mean yea I would want hamels or greinke, but the package to get them probably is only a little cheaper than it would be to get upton, and upton is cost controlled and probably the best rf in the game. I would take him and have a mean 345 of upton/cabrera/fielder, or put upton at 2.
bah my post needs approval! Essentially I said the tigers have a terrible defense which is hurting their staff. Their pitching is fine, but you need to either have amazing offense(2005 yankees) or improve the defense while maintaining your offensive punch(2004 red sox). I mean the tigers have verlander, scherzer, porcello, fister, smyly, crosby, and turner. They will be fine with pitching. I mean unless they get cole, which I think woudl require almost as much as a package for upton and in that case just get upton as he is controleld for 3 more years. upton/cabby/fielder? Yes please.
3rd time is the charm! I think we need hitting over pitching. In order to combat our defense we need to overpower it with offense or get a good defensive 2b/ss which I dont think are available atm. Upton would jumpstart our offense, look at the 2005 yankees with a bad runs saved and they still made the playoffs because their offense was that good. We have verlander/scherzer/porcello/fister/smyly/crosby/turner. Yea geting hamels would be good but he is probably going to cost as much as upton, or close to it and I would rather have upton for a few more years.
Are the Jays really a fit? The team has a logjam in the outfield and Gose on his way.
They are a fit according to a Dbacks writer cause they have the pieces the Dbacks covet. And Upton is good enough that even teams with crowded outfields should have some level of interest. Hell the Padres should be interested, hell I am sure they are, even if there isn’t going to be a trade of Upton within the division.
Realistically though, he could be a great fit for the Blue Jays, I just don’t see AA giving up anywhere near the kind of package the Towers and the Dbacks would want.
I see what you mean. Anyway, I highly doubt Adeiny is on the block, considering the organization’s weakness at 2B, which it lost to Arizona in Aaron Hill. Unless AA does the magical multi-team shuffle he’s so fond of, I don’t see it happening.
I don’t think it’s about whether Hech is available or not. I think it’s more about improving the overall talent level of the team. While Hech looks like he could be a solid MLB middle infielder there are still major questions about his bat at the next level. His value may be at it’s highest while he still has that “unknown” factor as to whether he will be a star or just an average player. I think if you can turn him + into a legitimate team controlled star it’s a pretty solid get.
There are big question marks surrounding Hech’s bat and whether it will play as a SS. Pretty sure, there is definitely not enough in there to slot it into 2B (unless maybe you had a SS lighting it up…They don’t).
Except we have a very good defender in Yunel Escobar, who has proven he can hit career .285BA, and is signed to a team friendly deal. I am ok dealing Hech
I am sure AA will find a way to make room for a 5 to 6 WAR outfielder who was baseball’s number 2 prospect. He might have to swallow hard and move Rajai Davis. But, I am sure AA is up to the task.
i just don’t think it’s the best use of resources. they should make a big splash in the trade market, but probably not for a bat
well you could send gose/snider the other way and solve the problem. add hechavarria and one of sanchez/syndergaard/nicolino.
Paxton, Nick Franklin…good starting point for a starter and shortstop. Probably doesn’t get done without Hultzen or Walker though, sadly.
Ok. I know being 24 and being in the majors for your 6th year makes you unique. And I know the kid is a star when he’s on his game. But when you go from a breakout year to hitting league average, I tend to be a little wary. Considering the price tag will probably be astronomical, I’m just not sure he’s worth it.
Well, he put up more than 14 WAR over the last three years (his age 21-23 seasons) and it’s kinda hard to say that last year was a “break out” year because the only real difference between his 2011 and his 2009 was that he played in 21 more games last year.
He’s obviously having a bad year, but that happens sometimes and it doesn’t necessarily mean that you aren’t as good as people thought you were (look at Pedroia and Gonzalez this year)
Actually, Pedroia is a pretty reasonable comparison (despite the fact that he’s four years older). They both have 3 years of control left after this year, they have both been considered amongst the best at their respective position, they both had career years last year, and are both hitting slightly below league average this year; we both know that despite his struggles this year Pedroia is still one of the best 2B in the game, and it would take an unbelievable amount of talent to pry him away from Boston (and rightfully so) – the same can be said of Upton.
This might be the first post I have ever seen from you that I agree with.
I’m so happy
happy enough to do a happy dance?
DBacks get: Iglesias, Ranaudo, Bogearts or WMB
Red Sox get: Upton, B level pitcher
I know the love fest with WMB right now. I really like him too. But you gotta give something to get something. The Sox will keep WMB or Bogearts so they win either way for third baseman of the future.
I feel like the Sox and DBacks match up real well given what both teams are looking for. The Sox could really benefit from a young power right handed bat and the Dbacks want 3 quality prospects that the Sox have and can afford to give up for a player like Upton.
given the sox situation with injuries, they really cant afford to give up anyone. Sweeney was almost on the DL again after sunday nights head collision in center field against the wall. and whos to say ellsburry and crawford dont end back up on the DL. Middlebrooks is proving he can hit in the majors, can that be said for bogearts? Ranaudo? now going back to injuries you want to trade another SS when their thin as it is in the middle IF and pedroia seems to have caught the injury bug after he was out the season couple years ago, now he cant stay off the DL. I mentioned it in a post a few months ago when the sox traded lowrie to the stros. it was going to come back and bite them because their team has ahistory of being on the DL alot. aside from Agonz, and Ortiz no one can really stay healthy for most of the season on that team.
what im saying is it is just dumb to trade away your farm for a guy who for some odd reason is being basically forced out o f arizona. no one can say its cause he is having a bad season, every player goes through a bad year atleast once in their career. he has had lingering shoulder problems in his throwing arm according to what i have read on here a few days ago. thats just another DL stint for an OF waiting to happen
If that happens the Red Sox fans will really no longer be able to deny the comparisons to the early 2000 yankees. Sell off the future for the present.
That’s not true at all. Upton would be a bigger part of that future than any of those guys (other than potentially Bogaerts if it’s him going and not Middlebrooks). You yourself pointed out that he’s under team control beyond this year (through 2015 to be precise), Iglesias isn’t certain to hit enough to stick in the majors (and there are a ton of guys behind him now who are going to be pushing for his job even if he does get it), and Ranaudo is looking more and more like a future reliever/back end starter (or career minor leaguer).
You can be sure that if this deal happened it would be middlebrooks going because he is a mlb ready 3b. They would be selling their prospects off for a big star. That is really all I was saying. The arguments you stated would be more for if they should do it or not.
I would agree WMB would have to be included, but its not like they are mortgaging away their future for a win now scenario. Upton would be around for 3 yrs locking up right field. We have peices to shift around to cover 3rd base.
I would say this is more of a building for the future, as I would expect Upton will be more valuable in the next 3 yrs compared to WMB, and the rest of the prospects are just that. You never can be sure they will make it, but you are certain that Upton can be scary good and still possible hasnt reached his ceiling.
Selling off prospects and selling the future are two completely different things. Any team who trades for Upton is going to be “selling prospects,” so that would also have to be said of any of them. Selling the future would be trading prospects who are an important part of the teams future, which it doesn’t appear that either Iglesias or Ranaudo are.
“Sell[ing] off their future for the present” is not at all what that trade would be doing.
This kind of goes with post made few minutes ago and upton.. Sorry if it is confusing..
*If* Boston decides to try and rebuild some as another topic here suggests and that WeEI article.. Aviles is a fine piece to move and thought he had decent value on the market. Ross would have value at that point, if they rebuild some as a chip and Shoppach is a guy they should move anyway as he is not resigning after reestablishing his value in a bleak world of catchers out there.
Those are the guys the team can move easily. Still move Middlebrooks in an Upton trade as was suggested if the slide Punto to 3b rest of the year and fill in with another “body” from Pawtucket. LaRoche, Spears, Gomez etc..
That way they would get back at least from people they have, what they had lost 9counting hopefully Ells over the Winter) and get Upton now. It would be the final nail in the season and IMO.. They should go ahead and tell CC to get the surgery on his arm now and be ready for next year..
That would seem logical. team is beat up. pedey is crippled, Crawford’s arm is damaged and needs surgery badly.. Hang it up and get fixed.
don’t throw in the towel of course and massive sell off.. Never ever do that, but pieces for sure that can be moved between now and december:
Avilles
Shoppach
Ross (maybe if they don’t wanna sign)
Middlebrooks (for Upton perhaps)
Sweeney
I still think if Boston is willing to leave themselves this exposed by giving out so much to acquire Upton that they ought to just go for the gusto, dial up Boras and make one of those ‘take it or leave it” 24 hour offers of like 6 years and 120m before they do anything like the offer Stanley proposed where WMB could be included.
*Not* that WMB is so great, but because they are so bleak at the position since they gave away Youk and nothing between Boston and high ball remotely looks like a prospect since they refuse to promote Cecchini from Greenville. Maybe they should even try Travis Shaw back at 3b even since 1b is blocked for sure.
vitek is just blocking 3b at Portland, DL and all.
Call Boras about Ellsbury you mean? Upton is a lot more of a “sure thing” than Ellsbury, and would cost less (money) than Ellsbury.
Personally I think Upton in RF, Iglesias at SS, and Aviles at 3B would be at least as productive as Ross in RF and Middlebrooks at 3B has been this year. Plus it would free things up to make other potential trades – Ross could be traded (or moved to CF and Ellsbury traded if he actually comes back and gets his value back to where it should be; unlikely, but maybe not impossible), Kalish would be available to be moved in another trade at some point, Ellsbury being moved in the offseason or next trade deadline (since his value being back up before this deadline is pretty unlikely) wouldn’t hurt nearly as bad.
See your point, but Ells for 1 season (coming back hurt) Ross for 2 months do not bring back what acquiring Upton does and signing Ells LT is pretty much the same player as Upton.
Save the prospects and go for a top of the rotation pitcher in the off season if they choose by resigning Ross. Offense isn’t really the problem if the have Ells and CC (should he delay TJ again)
I understand some want Upton like this, but when they can get the same thing with what they have?? Why waste precious resources in prospects to get it? Ells for 1 year isn’t going to bring tons back, probably even if he comes back and hits 3/4 of what he did in 2011.
This isn’t the crush ’em offensive teams of years ago, that part of the team will be decent when even CC is back, or Ells. Just 1. Lets try to make a move on a legit Ace if they are inclined so badly to move prospects.
Ellsbury really isn’t the same player as Upton, especially long term.
I don’t think either of Iglesias or Ranaudo have enough value right now to make that deal happen.
I’m glad you said something because I really don’t see Iglesias or Ranaudo having any real prospect value to attract Upton.
Iglesias might interest them, but he would have to be the 3rd or 4th best player in the trade, not the second. I also think Boston would likely want to hang on to him if Middlebrooks is part of the trade, so they could play him at SS and move Aviles to 3B.
Ranaudo probably adds absolutely zero to a trade at this point though.
They might like Iglesias but as you mentioned, as the 4th best piece. Right now, his value is as a great glove making mlb minimum for a few years. Outside of that he would be a defensive specialist on most teams.
I don’t see any reason why the Dbacks can’t get at least 2 top 75 prospects who are unblemished.
Yeah, agreed.
(in my best Daniel Bryan impression) Lindor for Upton? YES! YES! YES! YES!
I don’t think you understand how Kevin Towers operates. He said listen and “if a team is willing to make OUR deal” aka he wants the moon. If I am thinking its Bogaerts and Barnes and another lower level arm.
Edit: Was supposed to be in reply to StanleyHudson
It all depends on if he’s just doing due diligence or if he is under instructions to move him. He’s going to say the same things either way, because to do otherwise is to reduce his own leverage, but if he has instructions to move Upton he’s going to take whatever the best deal is regardless of if it’s “the moon.”
Remember the last guy who didn’t listen to the D’Backs ownership? He was half way through year three of an eight year (!!) extension and got canned because he wouldn’t fire his manager. If Kendrick said to move him–and yes, that is mere speculation at this point–he’s gone for whatever they can get.
What helps the Diamondbacks is the fact that Upton is signed for 3 more years, That he’s produced two excellent years (2009 and 2011), and the fact that with his age he may not have reached his peak yet.
What hurts them is the fact Upton is signed for 15 million a year each of those last two years and at his current rate of production isn’t worth half of it, and this isn’t just a blip in his career either since 2010 was similar. The fact that the owner has publicly come out against him and the team being reported as eager to remove him from the club house doesn’t drive up the price as well.
Before this year I felt that Upton was one of the more safer bets to give a massive contract to (I believe my final group was Kemp, Upton, Votto), but that was with him at his 2011 level. Where he is at now there are plenty of players that can produce similar numbers for significantly less cost.
I believe Upton if traded will return the biggest return package of any deal this year outside of maybe Latos but I don’t think he gets a top 25 MLB prospect.
They could absolutely get one if he were playing at his 2011 level, but in a catch 22 I highly doubt he’d be available if he were.
Great commentary!
upton was a 3.5 WAR player in 2010. at age 22
most of the prospects towers would be happy to take for upton haven’t yet (or have only recently) played that well above A ball
you can’t take for granted the value of top prospects based on assumption that they will get better while refusing to assume the same about a guy in upton whose tools and development track put his potential a mile above most of the rest
3 WAR was a “bad year”. his good year, last year at age 23, was worth more than 6. and no one was surprised when he put up those numbers. just think about that
The only reason that teams will offer what they will for Upton is because they feel he is the player he was in 09 and 11. The reason they won’t offer more is because he could also be what he was in 10 and 12.
The only real reason that Arizona is even thinking about dealing him is because they don’t want to risk him being the even year player and pay him 15 million for their trouble.
If he was the outstanding player he was in the odd years then this wouldn’t even be a discussion. He’d be the player Arizona builds around.
Arizona will get a haul for him, but it won’t be the haul they would have gotten for him before the start of this year.
I also believe that Upton will take being traded as a sign of massive disrespect and will go on a massive tear with his new team just to prove that he’s a elite player.
However Upton wouldn’t be the first player to have a few great years at a young age and become rather average. Take his brother for instance.
He also wouldn’t be the first to have a few down years at the start of a great career either.
Upton is a elite talent, one that I would give up a lot to get, but smart GMs also won’t give up as much as they would have at the start of this year with the way Upton is playing down.
GMs have been fired for making a system clearing deal for a player that turned out to be average but had a contract that was anything but.
Chase Headley and Mike Darnell. You get your 3B and outfielder (Darnell can play both left and 3B) and we get a superstar to keep the turnstiles in motion with the new ownership. Towers gets two guys he drafted.
I know, I know, it won’t happen. But San Diego needs to make a splash for the future. We have a strong system. We just need a bona fide power hitter that we can build around.
I think you mean James Darnell
Yeah I realized that a minute ago. I work with Mike Darnell..lol
Any chance the Mets would be interested? They have pitching depth in the minors and their lineup has a desperate need for a right-handed presence other than DWright. I would love to see an offer of Matt Harvey, Lucas Duda, Wilfredo Tovar, and maybe a lower-tier prospect like Reese Havens or Jack Leathersich.
Dbacks will look to target SP, SS, CF or 3B for J-Up. So players would need to fit one of those positions.
The Dbacks have no need of a CF, nor really any OF position player. Their biggest hole is 3B. Anything other than a solid 3B bat or solid rotation pitching is not going to cut it for Upton. Upton is going to cost a king’s ransom, or KT will just hold on to him and continue to enjoy the nice WAR.
Have you been watching? Chris Young has been abysmal for the Dbacks this year (offensively). Kubel can hold down LF, Parra can play all 3 OF positions, so in essence he could move into CF, so RF would leave a blank if Upton is moved.
Drew will be a FA after this season because the Dbacks will not pick up the option for 2013, so there is a hole at SS as well. Yes, 3B is the MAIN hole as Ryan Roberts, Josh Bell and whoever else they insert at 3B has not been the answer this season.
While our SP is deep, thanks in part to a great farm system, injuries to Saunders & Hudson have opened another spot potentially.
A buddy of mine, who’s a die-hard Cardinals fan, is infatuated with Upton. He said he’d offer David Freese & Beltran for Upton. That sounds awfully tempting. Freese is a stud and upcoming star at 3B and Beltran is having a very solid year for the Cards. But a) the Cards would never go for that, no matter the upside & potential of Upton and b) part of me still wants more. (shelby miller, i’m looking at you).
Sure i’m a dreamer, so be it.
Bottom line is that KT WILL ask for a kings ransom because we don’t NEED to move Upton. And something tells me, we won’t. I just don’t see a team offering enough.
I think Towers is looking for a crazy deal. Like an “empty your farm system” deal. WMB + Boegarts + Barnes/Ranaudo or whatever. not saying Boston shoudl do that, but i think thats what Towers is looking for.
I don’t see how the Pirates aren’t a fit. Taillon and Hanson that is a top of the rotation starter and a SS.
DBacks are only 4 games back, so they would probably want to stay in it. It still baffles me why they are moving him. I think its time for Bucs to move on from this.
No way I trade Hanson.
I think most of these “small market” teams are so full of it when it comes to the “we want to lock up our star” extensions. It seems that his 2012 season, as bad as it is, isn’t bad enough to just want to vanquish him. Unless he’s a miserable club house presence then I think it’s a horrible idea to trade him, which seems like it’s absolutely going to happen, one way or another.
he’s getting booed at his home park for what amounts to a league average offensive season. that isn’t something that happens in new york or boston, let alone other markets
no idea what AZ’s problem with the kid is, but their loss will be someone’s gain
Could you imagine Pedroia getting booed in Fenway for the year he’s having?
No, me either.
because people assume Upton is gone get more in a trade than just those 2. Willingham is cheaper both money and prospects wise. I wantto see what Marte does before we see if we need a impactbat or just a rental type.
Hey Dbacks fans, Im a fan of an AL east coast team, but I grew up in a small town in CT, and went to the same high school that one of your prospects went to. His name is A.J Pollack, and if im not mistaken he was taken 1st round in the ’09 draft. What does ownership/ the fans think of him? Like is he a future OF for this club? I know that he hit pretty decent avg. with low power, but speed and D. I believe he was called up earlier and hit a HR.
Pollack is actually just waiting right now. He got a call up earlier while CY was hurt. He looked bad until he got used to the better pitching, then he started putting together some good at-bats. He’s still top 10 in the farm system and will be called up the second Upton is traded (if he is). Parra would be a full-time starter and Pollack a solid 4th OFer until the Dback OF opened up some more or he just out-played CY or Parra.
The combination of Parra in the bigs and Pollack waiting is a big part of what makes Upton a moveable piece.
AJ Pollock to me is a platoon 4th OF, IMHO. I think Adam Eaton has a brighter future as an everyday OF for the organization. If the Dbacks could move CY, I’m sure Eaton and/or Pollock is on the short list to be the one to replace him. Both are solid defensively and can hit for average. Eaton is currently hitting .383 this season for Reno with 23 SB’s. Pollock is hitting a respectable .335. Granted, its the PCL.
The Dbacks AAA team in Reno is loaded with players ready to move up including Pollack. Check out the stats and be impressed! That is why Upton , Young, Drew and Saunders are available and why Dbacks don’t neeed prospects. They need 3B and RP.
Check out the stats but remember it’s the PCL. Numbers get inflated to make Cody Ransom look like an All-Star.
Since I think Josh Hamilton signs elsewhere, Texas should trade for Upton as long as Profar isn’t involved, because of Upton’s down year he won’t be.
Mike Olt (3B), Leury Garcia(SS), Neil Ramirez(P), Tanner Scheppers(P), and Cody Buckel(P) for Justin Upton and Willie Bloomquist. Maybe throw in David Murphy or Craig Gentry
Two Midseason Top 50 prospects in Olt and Buckel, and two former top 50 prospects in Scheppers and Ramirez. Garcia is the second best SS in our system. This could get it done.
That actually doesn’t sound crazy. It it expensive for the Rangers, but *insert saying*
Where do you think Hamilton will sign?
I can see the Dodgers, Phillies, Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Giants, and of course the Rangers being serious bidders. I think LA has the two biggest threats to Texas.
If Ruben even thinks about signing Hamilton I will throw up.
As a Texas fan who hoped we’d keep Cliff Lee, I’ll never ever count the Phillies out of anything.
I know you don’t want Profar involved… but as a Dbacks fan I think it would have to be something like Profar and Olt (and maybe Ramirez?). You don’t trade a guy who has 12 WAR in the last 4 years (ages 21-24) for less than Olt and Profar.
You don’t trade a 24 yr old with 12 WAR over the last 4 yrs at all. But since the DBacks are looking to move him, you’re not getting Profar. There’s only been two position player prospects above Profar the last year and a half, and that was Bryce Harper and Mike Trout. I think my trade was fair for both sides, but I do see the DBacks being greedy, understandably. But I feel like you’re not getting much more from the Rangers.
If Profar isn’t involved that Andrus will probably have to be.
Lol nice try, but you’re not getting our all star shortstop for him, unless it’s straight up and I doubt you guys do that.
But you do trade a 24yr old 12 WAR if it brings you a haul and you can replace him. Dbacks won’t be budging for anything less than a king’s ransom. They can always keep Upton.
I get that, but it seems that they want to move Upton, which is totally different than other teams just coveting him. I think they won’t get a king’s ransom..
by the way, I just looked it up, its 15.4 war over 3.5 seasons. And while I agree that they want to move him, they won’t unless the return is extremely high (such as Olt+Profar). Smoak was the #13 prospect according to Baseball America after 2009… he still hasn’t panned out. I get that Profar is a different player, but still, it makes sense that the Dbacks should get Olt, Profar, Ramirez so that they can salvage the deal if one of the three doesn’t work out. However, if one of Profar and Olt doesn’t pan out, this would likely be viewed as a huge mistake on the dbacks part.
You’re asking for two of the top 11 prospect in all of baseball, not gonna happen for anyone short of Clayton Kershaw. He’s not the top outfielder in baseball or in the NL or in the NL West, and hasn’t played as the top outfielder on his team. Don’t take that as me saying he’s not a franchise player, because he is. But you’re askin for two potential franchise players for one, plus at least one potential #2 pitcher in Ramirez. If he wasn’t being shopped or this was last year or he was having an All Star season then maybe you’d have a case, but none of those are the case so no Profar.
I just don’t understand how the return is will not be enormously greater than the Cliff Lee deal. On the top propect lists, Olt is currently #11 and Smoak was #13 according to BA. The difference is we are talking about a franchise player signed through 2015 on a reasonable deal. Lee was a rental pitcher who could only contribute one out of every 5 days. Thus, you could make the argument that trading profar and Olt for Upton would be justified on both parties, as the return MUST be much greater than the return for Cliff Lee. The Dbacks must be “dazzled” to trade Upton and the Profar/Olt probably would dazzle them. If Texas really wants to get significantly stronger for this year and the next few, they could make this offer and know that they still have Andrus and Beltre. Otherwise, I’m sure there will be a team that will top the above offer (or the Dbacks can hold on to him and let him regain his value by having his usual excellent second halves). The Dbacks will treat this as if he is performing at a superstar level and will not just trade him just to trade him.
You’re comparing apples to oranges. Seattle was never in the race and Cliff Lee wasn’t their franchise player. Justin Smoak was expendable because of the depth we had at the position in Moreland and Davis both being ready. If you wanna take a look at old trades why don’t we reference an Arizona trade that shipped off a player with 3 yrs of control left, Dan Haren, for Joe Saunders, Pat Corbin, and Tyler Skaggs. While Skaggs is a top prospect now, he wasn’t highly regarded in the Angels system, same goes for Corbin. Saunders was the prize, which wasn’t alot then either. Neither Skaggs nor Corbin were a top 25 prospect. That’s why expecting 2 top 11 prospects is ludacris.
I agree Lee was only a rental, not the franchise player for the Mariners. However, the Mariners still netted the #13 prospect in baseball for Lee. Upton is worth far more than Lee as Upton is signed for 3 more years and makes an impact every day (Lee made an impact every 5 days.) Olt is #11 on BA’s current prospect list, so it is reasonable to say his value now is about what Smoak’s value was at the time of the Cliff Lee trade. Since Upton is worth so much more than Lee, it is only fair (unless you want a lopsided trade) to include Profar to compensate for the difference between what the Mariners got for Lee (Smoak and other decent prospects) and Upton’s value. Moreover, the Rangers have similar depth at 3b and SS to what they had at 1b when they traded Smoak. They have Beltre/ young for 3b and Andrus for SS. I understand if you don’t want to make this deal… but this is fair based on Upton’s value and the Rangers’ front office’s most recent blockbuster trade. Otherwise the Dbacks wouldn’t get fair value for someone who has proven himself in MLB and still could develop into a HOF player. Remember, the Dbacks are still in contention and would be accommodating another team for the stretch run and should get quite a haul for that. Otherwise, they should keep him for their own stretch run, reestablidh value and get a wonderful haul this off-season.
They should keep him until his value higher, otherwise they’re selling low. Which is part of the reason for no Profar. And I get your cliff lee vs Justin Upton value argument, which is why the package I offered is MUCH better than what Seattle got. But frankly you’re not getting a top 7 prospect unless it’s for one of the top 7 players in baseball, which sadly he’s not. I know I might be overvaluing prospects but that’s just how it seems to be.
I think that Texas probably would be overpaying some with Profar/Olt deal. Arizona will only trade for a similar deal to what he would have yielded during the height of his performance. The Dbacks could get this deal, maybe, if Upton tears it up for the next few weeks or if Texas really fears Hamilton will leave and wants to make a run this year and still have a true franchise player in case Hamilton leaves. Maybe the Pirates, Rangers, Blue Jays, etc. will overpay for Upton’s potential. Upton’s market value will be determined based on the high amount of demand and maybe this demand, along with a small supply of outfielders on the trade market would cause a frenzy and net the Dbacks and ideal “gem” of a deal, similar to the Olt/ Profar idea.
I don’t think they’d accept any trade from the Rangers without Profar being involved. Unless of course you offer Andrus with a plethora of legit B prospects.
While we may not get Upton, realistically Texas won’t trade the #2 prospect in baseball. Same goes for Andrus, a 23 yr old All Sar shortstop. But Olt is more than consolation prize, and more than enough to build a package around.
Something tells me that KT would want both Olt AND Jurickson Profar. Thats snagging two very high prospects right off your farm (#1 being Profar). In addition, he’d probably want a SP that could play now. I doubt the Rangers would part with that.
I’ve watched the majority of Upton’s at-bats throughout his career. What he’s lacked is a hitter in the lineup to protect him. If Upton had a Prince Fielder-type hitter behind him in the lineup he can put up Ryan Braun type numbers, but he’s never had that. Does Miguel Montero really scare you? No. If you put Justin in the position of being the 2nd best hitter in a line-up he would thrive.
Goldschmidt and Kubel each could fit that bill
Goldschmidt and Kubel HAVE been doing that. Upton has loads of raw talent, but he gets lazy sometimes. His performance in AZ has still been good, but not where it should be in year 6. He’s still exceptionally valuable though. So sell high. The Dbacks have talent waiting.
because the evidence shows that “protection” makes much of a difference.
I can’t understand why Arizona is even considering trading Upton at the deadline.
The Dodgers and Giants are NOT juggernauts by any stretch of the imagination. The DBacks can very easily grab the NL West or a wildcard spot.
Unless he’s hurt or about to break down, this makes no sense whatsoever.
I obviously don’t have anything specific to base this off of, but after what their owner said about him I wonder if he’s forcing the issue.
The Dbacks have the talent to replace Upton waiting already. The potential power numbers might be down a bit, but the average and the defense will still be there, if not more. And by moving Upton now, they can add on to an already strong farm system or bolster their rotation. If they are ever going to move Upton, now would be the time, while they can sell high.
If by replace, you mean they can put players in his position and hit to around league average, then sure, they could replace him. However, if you mean that they could replace his production, then you’re definitely overestimating your system.
They’re concerned about his health to be honest. His thumb injury from earlier this season combined with his rushed return has sapped all the power from him.
Is it me or are both Upton’s under achieving head cases? At least this far in their careers.
why in the world are the Giants not interested it makes no sense? what have we needed since jeff kent? a power right handed bat. we could offer tommy joeseph, francisco peguero, nate shierholtz and clay hensley for upton and a throw away. Once we re sign melky, have pagan and get upton the of is set for years. if we dont get upton we better sign bourn.
Its going to cost an awful lot more than that for Arizona to trade their franchise player within the division.
Because they know it’s not happening. They know there is no way in hell. If Kevin Towers traded Upton in the division, people would be calling for his head no matter who he got.
A) because there is no way Upton is getting traded in-division.
B) because the package you suggested comes nowhere near the type of package it would take to land Upton, especially if you look at part A.
Hultzen, Franklin and Seager for Upton.
Upton to the Cubs for Matt Garza. Maybe expand the players to make both sides happy. Maybe include Tyler Skaggs from the Dbacks side, and Josh Vitters or? from the Cubs side …
Haha this is why the cubs are in last place, they think they can make stupid trades that make no sence for the other team. Garza isnt that good and isnt on contract as long as upton as well as diamondbacks dont need more pitching. PLUS you want us to add skaggs???
Skaggs?!?!?!
Uhm, he’s WAY more untouchable than Upton EVER was. With BAuer in the bigs now, Skaggs is the #1 Prospect in the system! He’s not going anywhere. And to trade him basically straight-up for Vitters? No thanks.
“Uhm, he’s WAY more untouchable than Upton EVER was”
no
I am just throwing some names in there, not sure what it would take to get the deal done. I know that Vitters is ranked pretty good in the Cubs system and Skaggs the Dbacks + the Dbacks seem to want a 3B and Vitters is 22 years old in AAA. I expect the Cubs to also trade Reed Johnson and David DeJesus, so they might be of interest as well.
After looking at Upton’s road/home splits over his career and especially recently…I don’t want him for the Mariners. Michael Saunders has played basically as well as Upton would given the way he’s hit on the road this year, and his defense. And he’s free for the next four or five years. Upton would come to Seatte and hit .250/.300/.400 at home. And he would cost us Paxton or Walker to acquire. No thanks.
If D-Backs, for whatever reason, decide they must move Justin Upton, this will be a classic “buy low” opportunity for AA. It will be very similar to the St. Louis situation last year with Colby Rasmus. Toronto certainly has the assets to repeat a similar acquisition. It might involve a three-way deal with Padres for Chase Headley.
All these people are throwing out potential deals for Upton, but people seem to be forgetting they are only 4 games out in the NL West and fancy themselves legit contenders in the NL (no matter how misguided). Knowing how Towers works, he’s not going to just dump Upton with his team in the NL West hunt.
I don’t think any deal centered around prospects will get it done. That’s a near impossible sell from a PR stand point. Remember, the DBacks entered the season among the favorites in the NL, some had them winning the World Series. How does management sell trading Upton for prospects when they’re four games out? No way they can raise the white flag in July like that.No, if Towers trades Upton it’s going to be for a package that he thinks wins them the division. That means he’s likely to be hunting for an immediate and long term solution at 3B first and foremost. He will probably also need to find some approximate way to replace Upton’s production in RF.People think I am crazy, but I am telling you the most logical trade is one involving Chase Headley and Carlos Quentin if Towers wants to win now. Consider this; Towers is notorious for being overly loyal to “his” guys (see: Blum, Geoff) AND he drafted Headley. If you stop talking about Upton’s potential and just look at what he is, he and Quentin are very similar players who produce in very similar ways. They also share some of the same short comings. Adding Headley and signing him to a 3-4 year extension AND potentially extending Quentin for 2-3 years is about as good of a haul as they can get and still remain relevant. It’s a smart baseball move, it’s a smart business move if they’ve decided Upton isn’t their man, and it’s a brilliant PR move. It really makes too much sense.
Were exactly will Profar play with the Rangers? They already have one of the games best SS in Andrus, and Kinsler is locked up long term at 2B. Seems like a waste to put a solid SS at one of the corners. If they aren’t moving him to CF I think I would offer Profar straight up for Upton.
I really feel like the Dbacks need Olt too. You don’t give 15.4 WAR over the last four years away for only one top prospect. You can’t know for sure if either Profar or Olt will pan out (see Justin Smoak from the Cliff Lee deal as an example of a top prospect who hasn’t really turned out what people thought he would be).
I read somewhere recently that due to his health issues, Kinsler would be moved to the OF. That would open up a spot. EDIT: And by moved to the OF, I mean eventually, not immediately.
I haven’t read anywhere that Boston or Seattle are even slightly interested in trading for Upton, why is 3/4 of this thread suggesting trades between those teams and Arizona? Did I miss something?
Boston has tried to trade for Upton more than once in the past, and they line up reasonably well with what Arizona would be looking for.
Replace Tallion with Cole and it would probably go through.
this is depressing
If we are going to end up trading Upton then I hope it is to texas. I think that a Justin upton and stephen drew for elvis andrews as well as mike olt and some one high to mid prospects would be good for both sides. Texas gets upton and a one year SS in drew while dbacks get cheaper andrews along with a top third base prospect.
Face it people if Bautista wants to play RF he will play RF, stop suggesting he will simply move to 1B, he is much more valuable in RF. Upton for Snider + Hech + Davis would be a trade, it would give Arizona the best defensive SS in the league, and a LF who is highly touted and just needs to be given a chance. Also Davis brings more value in the NL as a pinch hitter/runner and a pretty good 3rd/4th OF.
I would like to see Gose come up as the 4th outfielder/pinch runner for the jays, and have Thames in AAA as a injury call-up until the next crop is ready.