10:16pm: Ethier has let the new ownership group know that he's willing to discuss a contract extension during the season rather than wait until the winter, writes Heyman. Industry chatter says the outfielder could command a contract in the six-year, $90MM range.
3:01pm: The Dodgers’ new ownership group has been in place for a matter of hours, and they aren’t close to signing their right fielder to a long-term deal. But Andre Ethier could be in line for a contract extension before long.
The chances of a deal “improve drastically” with Guggenheim Baseball Management in place, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (on Twitter). Bill Shaikin of the LA Times points out that Dodgers GM Ned Colletti met with Ethier’s agent Friday and suggests a contract could be the new owners’ first order of business (Twitter link).
Ethier, 30, is a client of Nez Balelo of CAA Sports. He earns $10.95MM in 2012 and is on track for free agency this offseason. In seven MLB seasons, he has a .291/.363/.481 batting line with 114 home runs. MLBTR's Dan Mennella examined Ethier's free agent stock last month.
Mike Axisa contributed to this post.
hopefully a 4 year deal but i doubt that
I think ethier he’ll sign before June or be gone after the season
Ethier is a terrific glove and probably could duplicate his ’08, or ’10 numbers in a even neutral offensive stadium, but really LA fans.. Do you think Ethier can put up good numbers at LA for say.. 5 years and probably Drew money (75m) it will take to keep him and make the contract be a wash?
Not saying he isn’t worth it, cause really think that Ethier in a place like Arlington (Hamilton replacement) would be a tremendous offensive +defensive machine, same at memorial stadium and a few places that wouldn’t spend the cash.. Philly, Boston etc… Just not sure this is a wise expenditure for his talents perhaps in LA.
Good comparison to drew, but I bet Ethier is looking for 6 or 7 years! Dodgers should let him walk unless they get him for $12m a year, anymore than that is an overpay and just new ownership making a splash and showing they committed to surrounding Kemp with top talent
I don’t care about the money since I won’t be paying, but as a fan I’d be concerned with any contract with any player lasting longer than five years.
The reason you should care about the money is that it if more money is going to Ethier, that means less potential money for other free agent signings, draft picks, and international signings.
As if any of us have even the slightest clue how much the new ownership is prepared to spend on payroll. I’m more concerned about things that matter to me, such as the quality of the team they put on the field. I’ll let management watch payroll. I prefer to watch the team.
I have an idea that they will spend somewhere between 100 mill and 200 mill per year on the team’s payroll. Furthermore if as a fan I don’t think Ethier or any other player signed long term will be good for the lifespan of a contract…then I have reason to be concerned. I don’t want my team to be stuck playing a bad player just because he’s highly paid (think Alfonso Soriano, or Barry Zito)
Way to go out on a limb – “100 mill and 200 mill”…
BlueSkyLA has it just right. I’m pretty sure signing Ethier to a 5/70 deal or whatever, will not prevent them from going after a guy like Cole Hamels should he hit the open market. Ethier is already making $11 million a year, so why would an extra $3 million a year devoted to RF prevent a team that just spent $2 billion to buy the team, prevent them from spending internationally? Why would it prevent them from upgrading the pitching staff, first base, third base, etc.?
Also, there is a cap on the draft bonus pool, so your point there is moot.
If he agrees to move to 1st or we get a legitimate RF and put him in left resign him. But that 6/$90MM is insane.
A factor of 100%? I could probably guess closer to the actual, but it seems like such a pointless exercise. I agree with you on contract length. It is far easier to estimate the impact of player who stays too long than try to guess their impact on total payroll.
Considering the new spending limits (or more accurately, penalties) on draftees and international signings, pretty much all you have to worry about is other free agent signings. And I guess it all comes down to whether or not they think Ethier is the best suited for them in that free agent class…
Ethier is not a terrific glove, he’s average at best
He’s been well above average the last couple years after working hard on his routes to flyballs with the coaching staff in Glendale.
And still has Frank Thomas’ arm. You forgot that part.
If Ethier averages as a 3 WAR player then 5/$75m is market value for free agency. I’d take that.
$5MM/win sounds high.
It was $4m/WAR a few years ago. I believe it’s just under $5m/WAR at fangraphs.
On the open market, that is.
I think Admiral Ackbar said it best… “It’s a trap!”
Ethier is 30 and will want a huge five year deal. Will he ever hit 30 home runs in a season again? Doubt it.
More and more, I see these huge contracts paying players for what have done in the past, not what they can do in the future. Albert’s contract was more of a reward for past performance and a hope that he will be able to replicate it in the future. …which at best is highly unlikely.
Contracts are never about what the player will do in the future because nobody knows what is going to happen in the future. Well, I do, but I’m not telling.
Contracts are always about what a team THINKS a player will do in the future. If the Dodges think Ethier can do this, they’ll give him 5/75:
2013: 3.3 WAR
2014: 3.2 WAR
2015: 3.0 WAR
2016: 2.7 WAR
2017: 2.4 WAR
Yeah might be a little bit of an overspend, but if they think he can do that, no chance they let him walk.
If they think he’s a lefty Vernon Wells, they will bid farewell.
“If the Dodges think Ethier can do this, they’ll give him 5/75:”
I’d be careful asking for so little WAR for that 5/75m proposal, unless you thought Drew’s 5/75m was a good deal:
2007: 2.7
2008: 2.7
2009 5.2
2010 2.5
2011 -0.5 (yeah, he was hurt)
Drew if u look at his stats show he was worth it, but ask many Sox fans and he was pretty average.
Then those many sox fans are wrong. If he produces, he produces, regardless of the perceptions surrounding how the production comes.
He’s on pace for 30 this year, so we’ll see. Regardless, he doesn’t have to hit 30 homers for a 5/75 type deal to be worth it.
Just blogged out this. I said 4/60 plus two options years. Could be mutually beneficial if he really wants to stay in LA.
He’s probably going to push for 5-6 years. Of course just 4 would be ideal
I think they’d be better off allocating their money elsewhere. They have needs at C, 1B, and SP as is, and I’m assuming they’ll give at least 18M per year (if not more) to one of the top SP’s. Signing a cheaper option like Swisher to fill the RF option would still leave them with some money to go for a C (Montero, Napoli) or 1B (again Napoli).
Don’t look now but AJ Ellis is kinda good
Yeah don’t see them spending big on a catcher this winter when they already have a guy playing solid defense with an OBP well over .400 (also very good in that area in the minors). Plus they still have Federowicz in Triple-A.
This is a team now with money to spend. Locking up Ethier isn’t going to prevent them from making a run at Napoli, particularly given Loney’s $6 million salary would be off the books.
Napoli at 1st, Swisher on RF, to move Dre to LF. I like it. I pretty much disagree with everyone else.
Right now Colletti is drooling over a potential 30 year old being locked up for his prime years…which he considers to be 38-40.
No kidding.
I wouldn’t do this if I was the Dodgers even if I had the money and knew it wouldn’t hurt anything outside of it. I kind of hope they shoot for a shorter deal say maybe 3/40 million or try using Gordon’t contract as leverage. I would try to go as low as I can on years. I don’t think it makes sense financially because its going to be an overspend. Ethier is an above-average player or worse. So it comes down to will they commit to him or go with another outfielder on the free agent market?
I would hate to be making that decision, but hopefully Ethier is willing to discuss a around 4 years. That minimizes the risk and still makes it decent deal for the Dodgers.
From Ethier’s perspective, there is literally zero chance he signs a 3-year extension with the Dodgers without first testing free agency. With the recent trends in contracts given out, 5/75m is probably a best case scenario for them. After what they just gave Kemp, hard to imagine Ethier signing a below market deal this close to free agency. I’m thinking he’ll find some team willing to give him 16/17m yr for 6 years.. free agency is kind of wacky like that.
The Dodgers will pay whatever it takes and it’s likely a lot of people will whine and complain that he was overpaid. Ethier is going nowhere. If you don’t realize what a PR nightmare it would be for the new ownership group to fail to lock him up, then I don’t know what to tell you. No, he’s not going to be worth $16 million a year five years from now, but five years is a long time away and either way, it’s not our money.
To me Eithier will command Drew money. 5/75. We’ll see though.
Kemp, ethier, hamilton sounds very nice coming next season