Five MLBTR writers give 2012 predictions! Click here to see postseason and award picks from Tim Dierkes, Ben Nicholson-Smith, Mike Axisa, Mark Polishuk, and Steve Adams. Make your predictions in the comments and we'll check back here in November.
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Brett Lawrie lost rookie eligibility, correct?
Sadly.
Seeing no red sox on the list made me slightly more happy.
no red sox and no braves. the recency bias is strong in these ones
5 different NL cy young predictions is pretty cool though
Huh. Always thought you might have been a Pedroia fan.
The amount of pessimism in RSN is astounding.
Very true, but that doesn’t mean that its totally unfounded.
Lot of faith there guys in the -0- offense and all pitching Rays to not just make the playoffs, but even advance. This isn’t the early-mid 70’s Orioles rotation, nor do they have a Frank Robinson/Boog Powell style bat, backed up with GG people in Belanger,Brooks Robinson, Paul Blair even to bail them out.
Maddon has his work cut out getting this team to win even 90 games this season.
they all have the rays making the playoffs, but only two to the ALCS and none to the WS. interesting
I
guess a couple figured that pitching could only carry them so far. Like
through 1 game series and the lack of offense would show up.
Kind of odd would think if the Rays could send David Price out there
in a 1 game series one would think they would stand a very good chance
of advancing, unless it was vs Detroit and against Verlander. Then
noticed 1 has the Rays over Detroit.
Anything can happen in a 1 gamer.. Shame fall is not warmer nation
w8ide so they could play longer series..Say at least a 3 gamer. 1 game
series is just not right. That 1 game series from 78 still sticks
sickeningly in my mind from a Sox fan point of view.
With longoria, upton, Jennings, Pena, Zobrist, and Scott I think they’ll have a pretty underrated offense this season.
This is my fear. They aren’t punchless again. They aren’t GREAT, but they aren’t the Phillies offensively.
The Phillies aren’t the Phillies offensively.
That is just it.. Scott they have to hope is back from his shoulder woes and IF he is? Kills Boston and will give super protection to Longoria.. Upton nobody fears and hasn’t hit for 4 seasons, Pena is power only and a GG winner. Longoria is a true threat, Zobrist is good and Jennings is a blue chipper rookie they are pinning their hopes on.
This lineup is just full of holes.
I’m kind of sad that Henderson Alvarez isn’t a rookie anymore… he could have made a good push for ROY.
Then again, Yu Darvish is a “rookie” this year.
That chart is funny. Marlins and Nationals will not make the postseason. They both look good on PAPER but if either make the postseason I will wear their jersey every Friday for the next year.
AL East-Red Sox
AL Central-Tigers
AL West-Rangers
AL Wild Card 1-Yankees
AL Wild Card 2-Angels
ALCS-Red Sox over Yankees
NL East-Phillies
NL Central-Reds
NL West-Diamondbacks
NL Wild Card 1-Cardinals
NL Wild Card 2-Nationals
NLCS-Diamonbacks over Phillies
World Series-Red Sox over Diamondbacks
AL MVP-Miguel Cabrera
NL MVP-Justin Upton
AL ROY-Matt Moore
NL ROY-Drew Pomeranz
AL Cy Young-Jon Lester
NL Cy Young-Clayton Kershaw
(some of these are iffy choices)
lemme guess, red sox fan?
(some of these are iffy choices)
You left out Bobby V as manager of the year.
I never really thought about it before, but winning the AL MVP will be that much more difficult with the additions of Pujols and Fielder. Talk about a stacked field.
Poor Jose Bautista… he’s never going to win it now…
I was thinking the same thing about Pedroia’s chances for a second.
If Bautista pops another 50 and they take the division he’d have a good chance still, I’d think.
Um.
So what you’re saying is that he’s never going to win it now?
Pedroia shouldn’t have even won an MVP in 2008. He’s a good player, but MVP worthy? He deserved to be in the discussion last year (mostly from his defense), but not in any other year previous IMO.
They already don’t allow DH’s to win.. Ortiz ’06 when Morneau won it with entirely inferior statistics as an example.. What’s the difference with Pedey winning in ’08 with a down year all over offensively in the AL?
No different than Ortiz crushing Morneau in ’06 and the writers refusing to give it to a DH. Why not refuse to give the Cy Young to a reliever, or MVP to any pitcher? That just makes no sense.. Sorry about that as generally don’t have a real issue with your posts.
I think in 2008 Grady Sizemore should have won it, but that’s me.
I am not sure I understand the NL Central predictions. Other than the Tigers and Phillies, I think that Cards are the next most likely to win their division.
It seems to me that Milwaukee is a worse team than last year and that Cincinnati is better, but they had a long way to go and are planning on giving 190 precious innings to Arroyo and only 70 or so to Chapman (an absurd decision).
The Cards on the other hand:
1) Lost Pujols
2) Added Wainwright
3) Lose Carpenter for 2 to 3 months
4) Added Beltran
5) Moved Berkman to 1B
6) Have a real bullpen for the entire season
While Pujols is a HUGE loss, I think that Wainwright could return to being one of the best pitchers in the NL and the other moves mean they are about equal in the end.
The other thing that surprises me is the pick of Mesoraco for NL ROY. This is hard to win for a catcher because of playing time and catchers rarely hit when then first come up. I think he is talented, but I am not sure I put him in the Posey/Mauer level of talent. More the Wieters level of talent, AKA… popular pre-season ROY pick that doesn’t hit enough to get there.
Harper, Belt, Bauer, Cozart, Shelby Miller, Pomeranz, and maybe Brett Jackson. Come to think of it, Belt might have lost eligibility.
Trying to hide my bias here:
AL East-Yankees
AL Central-Tigers
AL West-Angels
AL Wild Card 1-Rays
AL Wild Card 2-Blue Jays
ALCS-Blue Jays over Tigers
NL East-Phillies
NL Central-Brewers
NL West-Giants
NL Wild Card 1-Nationals
NL Wild Card 2-Reds
NLCS-Phillies over Nationals
World Series-Phillies over Blue Jays
AL MVP-Jose Bautista
NL MVP-Joey Votto
AL ROY-Matt Moore
NL ROY-Bryce Harper (I think he’ll get called up mid May and just blow everyone away)
AL Cy Young-Ricky Romero
NL Cy Young-Stephen Strasburg
how do you see Strasburg as Cy Young this year?
His stuff is fantastic.
He’s gotta have a “break through” year eventually
absolutely. probably not a year in which he has an innings limit, though
But relievers have won Cy Youngs and they put out much fewer innings
Eric Gagne won with 88 IP
And 55 saves
So if Strausburg puts up 2003 Gagne numbers… but has 0 Saves, he shouldn’t win?
Correct. If a starting pitcher pitches 70 innings then no, he shouldn’t win.
Apples and oranges.
The voters just don’t give it to a SP with under 200ip.
The Eck!
Pitch 160 innings…win CY Young. Definition of a beast!
Ha ha ha ha good one there, hiding your bias, ha ha ha
Hey now, I could have easily been mistaken for a Nats fan…
What is this “Nats fan” you speak of? They appear to be extinct in my neck of the woods.
I think the Nats can win this year and I feel they will contend. My question is this the Nats have an inning limit on Stras, why not DL him early in season and bring him up in May? This way you limit his innings during cold damp April as opposed to September when you will really need him ?
Because without him in April they probably WON’T need him in September. Gio/Jackson/Zimmermann are all decent, but they’re not going to be there without Stras every 5 days.
IMO they’ll grow this season, probably end up above .500 which is a GREAT thing for them. Next season, watch out.
But if they can’t get to September without him in April, how can they get to October without him in September
That’s why I don’t think they make it this year.
AL East- Yankees
AL Central- Tigers
AL West- Angels
ALWC1- Rays
ALWC2- Red Sox
ALCS- Yankees over Rays
NL East- Phillies
NL Central- Reds
NL West- D’Backs
NLWC1- Cards
NLWC2- Mets (just kidding- Marlins)
NLCS- Reds over Phillies
World Series- Yankees over Reds
AL MVP- Pujols
NL MVP- Tulo
AL ROY- Yu Darvish
NL ROY- Mesoraco
ALCY- King Felix
NLCY- Halladay
Way to have some guts writers……Not. No dark horses at all this year?
Edit: With the AL picks i mean.
Who were they supposed to be? Any team in the AL East (other than the O’s) could make the playoffs. There just is no other team in the Central, or West other than Detroit, Anaheim, or Texas with really a remote chance if you look at it realistically and not trying to sound mean, nor slam the fans of those teams here.
Exactly. The only real “dark horse” would have been the Jays, and they’re so dark that they blend perfectly into space.
Well they were so spot on with their free agency picks…
No one picked Harper for ROY. Interesting.
I love how everyone of these writers has over looked the Braves…OK…seems like these guys have that ESPN bias…all the typical bandwagon teams were picked…
Yeah I’m sure they are all Braves haters Jerry.
They all left the Cubs off to.. Shame on them 🙁
At what point does it become embarrassing to admit that you’re a cubs fan?
They’re the bandwagon for a reason. They’re the best teams.
No A’s picks!?! how dare they!!11!! they’re all anti-oakland!!
but really, a lot of those are the picks I would’ve made too
AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Tigers
AL West: Rangers
AL Wildcard 1: Rays
AL Wildcard 2: Angels
NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Reds
NL West: Diamondbacks
NL Wildcard 1: Nationals
NL Wildcard 2: Cardinals
ALCS:Angels over Rangers
NLCS:Reds over Phillies
World Series: Angels over Reds
AL CY Young: CC Sabathia
NL CY Young: Josh Johnson
AL MVP: Prince Fielder
NL MVP: Matt Kemp
AL Rookie of the Year: Yoenis Cespedes (have to have a homer pick in there)
NL Rookie of the Year: Trevor Bauer
Wow, three of you picked the Brewers to win the NL Central? And you all picked the Phillies to win the East? I hope you guys don’t put money on stuff like this. I’ve got my dollars on the Cardinals winning the NL Central. Phillies fans are in for a lot of heartbreak this year, I think. Not enough offense.
Liking this Steve guy (Go Halos!). Seriously though, seems like everyone, not just the writers, are in agreement about the contending AL teams. NL, on the other hand, is pretty much up for grabs. Should be some interesting races in those divisions.
Nobody picks the Red Sox for even a #2 wildcard? Or Verlander for a Cy Young?
Perhaps due to the Red Sox pitching problems, both at the end of the rotation and in the later innings now.
I would not be surprised to see them miss out on a wild card.
same, they have a somewhat decent team, but are they better than the rangers, angels, rays, yankees?
NO WAY
their only luck is injuries
Are you a Boston fan? Good Lord, they aren’t THAT bad. They’re basically the same team that crushed the AL for 135 games last season. The entire pitching staff is somewhat thinner, but they aren’t terrible.
I just don’t think you can go along an entire season with this thin a staff. And the minors certainly don’t seem to be offering them any relief.
With the Sox its all about how their front 3 starters preform and hold up over the course of the season. That ‘pen is awfully thin to make up for even the 2 pitchers they’ll probably have to, but if they also need to make up for the deficiencies of one of the “reliable” guys….
As good as their offense can be its hard to rely on that over the entire course of a season. We shall see.
Thank God for Steve, picking the Rays for the AL East! As for everyone else picking the Yankees harrumph! Since I am a contrarian, I am picking the field to win the Al Central. The one surprising thing no one picked the Nationals for anything. The other surprising thing no one picked Verlander to repeat for Cy Young. Boy, Verlander gets no love from Kate Upton in the commercial and gets no love from the MLB Rumor staff. It’s funny last year what was he 24-5, I think I watched all 5 of those losses, I never saw him when he was pitching his best.
then stop watching him pitch & he’ll win 30 games
Its hard to win back to back Cy Youngs. His win total was the most dominant thing about his case, especially going into September, and that is not a stat that seems to carry too much weight with the staff here. The competition will probably be fierce again this year.
I’m still calling it for the Cubs no matter what anyone says. If we get off to a good start we have nice reinforcements waiting in the wings in the minors.
I think you hope for too much: 1) that the Cubs get off to a good start with their sub-par team; and 2) that somehow players that are currently in the minors are going to come up and make the team better THIS year. They should have a better record than the Astros though… so that’s something.
What do you like about the Cubs? Their pitching staff doesn’t look like it will be very good behind Garza. Their offense also appears pretty bad. While anyone can win that division, I just don’t see them on the same level of the Brewers, the Cardinals, or my pick for the central division winners, the Reds. Like I said, anyone can win that division, but I’d be pretty shocked if the Cubs beat out the other non-Astro teams. It might be a tight race between the Cubs and Pirates for 4th, and I think I like the Pirates in that race.
AL East-Yankees
AL Central-Tigers
AL West-Angels
AL Wild Card 1-Rays
AL Wild Card 2-Rangers
ALCS-Tigers over Angels
NL East-Phillies
NL Central-Reds
NL West-Diamondbacks
NL Wild Card 1-Marlins
NL Wild Card 2-Nationals
NLCS-Diamonbacks over Reds
World Series-Tigers over Diamondbacks
AL MVP-Brennan Boesch
NL MVP-Matt Kemp
AL ROY-Matt Moore
NL ROY-Drew Pomeranz
AL Cy Young-Justin Verlander
NL Cy Young-Clayton Kershaw
Boesch for MVP?!?!?!?!?
He’s so good, he could be traded to the NL in July and win the MVP in both leagues.
He hit something like .380 in front of Cabrera last year in the 3 hole. Batting in front of Cabrera and Fielder means he could have a MONSTER year (even if he was pretty lousy at the plate today).
I find it interesting for thsoe who are picking the Wild Card team as the World Series winner or as a team in the World Series. Reason I find interesting is that once they win the Wild Card, their season could end in just 1 game. And you’re basically picking who’s going to win a 1 game playoff
Certainly this all can happen. I just find it a bit interesting that while picking the wild card team as the World Series winner, you’re also picking them to win a 1 game playoff.
I like these predictions. ESPN preditions are in . 18 of them picked the Angels to win it all, the next highest was the Rangers and Rays tied with 7 each.
Feel free to disagree, but with a pretty weak bullpen for now, I don’t see the Angels getting far in the playoffs if they make it (I think they will take at least a WC spot though). Yes they have the starters to go 7+ innings, but there’s always the possibiltiy of one getting hit hard in the playoffs (especially Wilson and Santana)
If anyone did not know, the Tigers and Cards both threw more innings in the LCS’ from their bullpens then their starters. The Rangers, who were 1 strike away from winning the WS, had only 1 quality start all postseason (And that wasn’t until Game 4 of the WS)
Also their offense even with Pujols is still a lot weaker than Boston, NY, Detroit and Texas.
Out of the 6 contending teams, the Angels have one of the worst bullpens and I’d say the only team they have a better offense than is the Rays. Fortunately these 2 teams easily have the best rotations in the AL.
Let’s see what happens though. Can’t wait for baseball to start in about 7 hours 🙂
The rs took a big hit with their closer out for 4-5 months, and bard moving into the rotation. I also expect aceves to take a step backwards, he lost a rotation spot and threw 120 innings relief last year. and they lost papelbon.
Correct. I think they are hurt in the back end of the pitching department and back end of the bullpen.
If Beckett and Buchholz miss any signifcant amount of time and if their bullpen is still struggling, I can then even see the Jays passing the Red Sox.
I know this wont be taken seriously by a lot of people, what with me being a Red Sox fan and all, but people are seriously WAY too down on the Red Sox this year. “If Beckett and Buchholz miss any significant time” = “If Kuroda and Pineda miss any significant time” or “If Shields and Hellickson miss any significant time” and if that happens the Yankees/Rays are sunk too.
They prepared for Bailey going down by bringing in Melancon, and he’s still just a reliever; losing a 1-2 win player doesn’t take you from a contender for the division to a 4th place team, it just doens’t.
They had the best offense in the game last year and will have better production out of 3B, RF, and LF. They are also very very likely to have better pitching this year overall as well. For more than half of the year last year they had Wakefield as their #3, Miller/Weiland as their #4, and the 6.00+ ERA version of Lackey as their #5, and they still won 90 games.
I’m sure you heard by now, Aceves is now the closer, not Melancon.
The reason I mentioned Beckett and Buchholz is because both have a injury history. Kuroda had suffered an injury once but he’s pitched fully well the last 2 seasons. Pineda won’t be out long.
Beckett has averaged ~30 starts per season since joining Boston and Buchholz has missed more than a couple weeks due to injury exactly once in his career.
Buchholz has only started 42 games the past 2 seasons. Beckett has never had back to back very good seasons in Boston (note I said very good, not just good). From 2006-2011, the highest WAR he’s produced in back to back seasons was 8.0 (Which means obviously a 4.0 WAR average in 2 straight seasons, and this was 2008 and 2009). Last year his WAR was an incredible 6.2. Now chances are I”m sure his WAR will be higher than 1.8 this year, but he is far from being an ace pitcher anymore
“Buchholz has only started 42 games the past 2 seasons” is a very disingenuous statement. Buchholz missed two weeks in 2010 because of an injury he got running the bases in an interleague game; he made 28 starts (29 if you include the one rehab start) that year, so the only reason he has only made 42 starts the last two years is because of the single serious injury that I already mentioned.
And, outside of one year, Beckett has been the same pitcher since 2007, so I don’t know how you can say that he isn’t as good as he used to be.
I think the Rays may actually have a better offense than Anaheim. Other than Albert, they don’t have much of anything going for them.
Maybe what’s wrong is that you think without knowing anything about the Angels!
Morales 30 + HR’s – Trumbo 30 + HR’s – Wells 25 + HR’s
Hunter 20 + HR’s – Kendrick 20 + HR’s – Iannetta 15 + HR’s
The Angels will be in the top 5 in the AL in offense this year with Redsox, Yanks, Detroit and Texas.
AL East – Yankees
AL Central – Tigers
AL West – Rangers
AL WC – Rays
AL WC – Angels
AL MVP – Miguel Cabrera
AL Cy Young Award – Jered Weaver
AL ROTY – Yu Darvish
NL East – Phillies
NL Central – Cardinals
NL West – Diamondbacks
NL WC – Braves
NL WC – Brewers
NL MVP – Justin Upton
NL Cy Young Award – Cole Hamels
NL ROTY – Devin Mesoraco
ALCS – Yankees and Rangers
NLCS – Phillies and Cardinals
WS – Yankees over Phillies
Don’t exactly agree with your nl results, but i can live with your ws prediction. 🙂
My biggest problem with these predictions was how many people didn’t pick the reds. They have a very good team, and with fielder and pujols out of division, and bringing latos in they should be at top of division.
Oh and i think the nats and marlins have a better shot of wc than the cards. Idk about philly either, if any of their front 3 go down then they are in for a long year, and one of the above can sneak in.
They do have a very good team, but for now I’d call them a sleeper pick (like the Jays in the AL) because there are much better teams in the NL in my mind.
I think these picks just reinforce the idea that the NL Central is pretty much a toss up and that the East is so full of possibilities that no one knows what the heck is going on.
AL East-Yankees
AL Central-Tigers
AL West-Rangers
AL Wild Card 1-Blue Jays
AL Wild Card 2-Angels
ALCS-Texas over Blue Jays
NL East-Phillies
NL Central-Reds
NL West-Diamondbacks
NL Wild Card 1-Giants
NL Wild Card 2-Nationals
NLCS-Diamonbacks over Nationals
World Series-Texas over Diamondbacks
AL MVP-Brett Lawrie
NL MVP-Joey Votto
AL ROY-Yu Darvish
NL ROY- Stephen Strasburgh
AL Cy Young-Brandon Morrow
NL Cy Young-Tim Lincecum
Marcos is a Canuck. Surprised you didn’t pick the Montreal Expos !
No Rays winning it all? Shame on you
Probably due to not much of a great bullpen and not a great lineup. Which basically what happens with the Angels except their lineup is better than the Rays. I see the Angels and Rays as very similar teams with a slight edge to the Angels due to the lineup and the more Experienced pitching.
AL East-Yankees
AL Central-Tigers
AL West-Angels
AL Wild Card 1-Redsox
AL Wild Card 2-Rangers
ALCS-Angels over Tigers
NL East-Phillies
NL Central-Brewers
NL West-Giants
NL Wild Card 1-Rockies
NL Wild Card 2-Braves
NLCS-Phillies over Giants
World Series-Angels over Phillies
AL MVP-Miguel Cabrera
NL MVP-Justin Upton
AL ROY-Jesus Montero
NL ROY-Trevor Bauer
AL Cy Young-Dan Haren
NL Cy Young-Zack Greinke
Man looking back on that is kinda Depressing. I wish I could have picked some better sleepers for division winners too.
Not having the Diamondbacks in there seems wrong but I think they played way above thier heads last year.
AL East – New York, Tampa (WC), Boston, Toronto, Baltimore
AL Central – Detroit, Kansas City, Chicago, Minnesota, Cleveland
AL West – Los Angeles, Texas (WC), Seattle, Oakland
AL MVP – Mark Texiera
AL Cy Young – Jered Weaver
AL ROY – Mike Trout
NL East – Miami, Philadelphia, Washington, Atlanta, New York
NL Central – Cincinnati, St. Louis (WC), Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Houston
NL West – Arizona, San Francisco (WC), Colorado, Los Angeles, San Diego
NL MVP – Hanley Ramirez
NL Cy Young – Matt Cain
NL ROY – Brett Jackson
World Series – Yankees over Reds in 6
My personal predictions:
Al central: Tigers
Al east: Yankees
Al west: Angels
Wild cards: Rangers, Rays
Nl central: Cardinals
Nl east: Phillies
Nl west: Diamondbacks
Wild Cards: Reds, Brewers
ALCS: Tigers over Angels
NLCS: Phillies over Diamondbacks
World Series: Tigers over Phillies (I gotta do it)
Al mvp: Jose Bautista
Al cy young: Justin Verlander
Al ROY: Yoennis Cespedes
Nl mvp: Justin Upton
Nl cy young: Roy Halladay
Nl ROY: Bryce Harper
AL East-Yankees
AL Central-Tigers
AL West-Angels
AL Wild Card 1-Rays
AL Wild Card 2-Rangers
ALCS-Angels over Yankees
NL East-Phillies
NL Central-Brewers
NL West-Diamondbacks
NL Wild Card 1-Nationals
NL Wild Card 2-Rockies
NLCS-Diamonbacks over Nationals
World Series-Angels over Diamondbacks
AL MVP-Albert Pujols
NL MVP-Troy Tulowitzki
AL ROY-Yu Darvish
NL ROY-Yonder Alonso
AL Cy Young-Dan Haren
NL Cy Young-Clayton Kershaw
What the hell, I’ll join in. This should be fun..
AL East: Rays
AL Central: Tigers
AL West: Rangers (I’ll be bold with this one)
WC1: Angels
WC2: Yankees (taking out the Blue Jays in mid-September)
NL East: Nationals
NL Central: Cardinals
NL West: Diamondbacks
WC1: Phillies
WC2: Giants
AL MVP: Evan Longoria
AL RoY: Matt Moore
AL Cy: Felix Hernandez
NL MVP: Matt Kemp
NL RoY: Bryce Harper
NL Cy: Madison Bumgarner
ALCS: Rays over Rangers
NLCS: Phillies over Nationals
WS: Rays over Phillies in 6
Rays are just too dangerous this year.
Also, just to note, I’m a Jays fan.
AL East- Yanks
AL Central- Tigers
AL West- Angels
AL Wild Card 1- Rangers
AL Wild Card 2- Rays
ALCS- Angels over Rays ( It’s all about pitching and defense)
NL East- Braves
NL Central- Reds
NL West- Giants
NL Wild Card 1- Phillies
NL Wild Card 2- Nats
NLCS- Giants over Braves
World Series- Angels over Giants in 6
AL MVP- Pujols
NL MVP- Kemp
AL CY Young- Weaver
NL CY Young- Kershaw
AL ROY- Moore
NL ROY- ???? Toss UP
You won’t find anyone else besides me that is picking TREVOR CAHILL for the NL Cy Young Award. You heard it hear first.
Braves will be better than the Nationals and Marlins. I don’t care how many stories you read about the Nats and Marlins, or how many times they talk about it on TV. And if you think there is not a bias against the Braves, I would love to hear the writers opinions of the Braves. Probably can only remember the last month.
You heard it here first! Trevor Cahill will win the NL Cy Young!