The Diamondbacks have an eviable amount of young pitching both at the Major League and minor league level, but don't expect two those young arms to sign long-term contract extensions anytime soon. GM Kevin Towers told reporters (including Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic) that he doesn't expect to get deals done with Ian Kennedy or Daniel Hudson (Twitter links).
"I don't anticipate anything happening with them before the start of the season," said the GM according to Jack Magruder of FOXSportsArizona.com (on Twitter).
Kennedy, 27, currently has a better case for a large payday than the 25-year-old Hudson thanks to his 21-win season and fourth place finish in the NL Cy Young voting last year. Advanced metrics see very little difference between the two, however. Kennedy had a 2.88 ERA in 2011 but a 3.22 FIP and 5.0 WAR in 222 innings. Hudson's 3.49 ERA was backed by a 3.28 FIP and 4.9 WAR in the exact same number of innings, 222.
Towers said he might look into extensions for his two young hurlers earlier this month. Kennedy is under team control through 2015, Hudson through 2016. We've looked at both players as extension candidates in the past.
Kennedy had one of the biggest turn around seasons in years and had to have been a surprise, but I agree with the DBacks here on rewarding him with a 4-5 year deal in the 30m+ range. I have to see him at least repeat 60% of what he accomplished in 2011 before giving him that kind of security and see he is a #2-3SP long term. Now if he is a #1 like he showed last year and costs a few million more? They still have team control 3 additional seasons to figure out which way to go, but in his case (kennedy) it maybe safer this way.
IMO, neither is as good as they pitched last season. It definitely would be a wise choice for Towers to wait it out for now, and see if the likely inevitable regression comes. Both of these guys are most likely 3s, possibly 2s. And with Arizona having some potential legitimate #1’s in the minors, I think its definitely best to not commit the money right now.
Hudson has more upside than Kennedy in regards to pure talent. Hudson underachieved last season and had trouble in the first inning in a majority of his games.