Pitchers and catchers have reported for Spring Training all across the league, but Roy Oswalt remains unemployed. That could change soon, as ESPN's Jim Bowden reports (on Twitter) that the veteran right-hander could make a decision about his next team as soon as tomorrow.
The market for the 34-year-old Oswalt has faded in recent weeks, as several teams have come out and said they don't have interest in signing him. The Red Sox, Rangers, and Cardinals all showed interest in him at one point, but it's unclear if they have offers on the table at the moment. Oswalt could end up being the bargain of the offseason at this stage of the game.
Shame the phillies couldn’t have gotten rid of Blanton, that would have been our only chance of re-signing him.
Phillies need to concentrate on signing Hamels to an extension. You can’t eat what many think is $6M+ to trade Blanton, then sign Oz to a $7M+ deal. If Blanton is healthy he will get his wins and do what we need him to.
Worley scares me the most in the rotation. I do not see him repeating what he did last year. Unless he came up with an “out” pitch this off season, he will struggle to get out of innings, and be out of games after 6-7 with 100+ pitches. I like the kid but my expectations are very low at this point. Guess I will be the least disappointed if he struggles.
I loved Oz when he was here and wish he could pitch this season for us. Unfortunately he will be somewhere else.
Even when healthy, Blanton is barely worth $6 million a year.
Cardinals for very cheap
Angels for 25mm
Mystery team.
Back to the Stros for dirt cheap, then traded again at the deadline.
i think so to its been like that all offseason
So basically expect Ruben Amaro to trade Blanton tomorrow, and then sign Oswalt… You heard it here, first!
I’m with you, either the Phils or the Cards. It’d be cool to see him back in Philly.
jim bowden reporting this? i think i’ll wait until someone along the lines of rosenthal or olney are reporting this….
and that’s really saying something with how much olney’s been swinging and missing this offseason
I’m sorry I LOL’d because Bowden is so awful that he makes Rosenthal and Olney seem bearable.
cardinals best fit
redsox to much pressure
Please stop using the internet.
Discount this season- get paid next season– Go Cards!
Think Redsox will land him.
When Oswalt makes a decision I think he will chose the Cardinals. If he’s going to pitch for less money and years then he originally wanted why not at least pick the team you wanted to play for in that case.
Because he wouldn’t even have a spot in their rotation. I feel like there may have been just a little bias in your opinion by hoping, I mean predicting, that he doesn’t end up in Boston.
No bias my friend. Just the way I see it. I just happen to think that at this stage of his career comfort in where he pitches is probably the more important thing to him. I also happen to think that if he were going to pick Boston he would have already done so. But I could be wrong. It wasn’t so much that I was predicting he doesn’t end up in Boston, as it was suggesting he would pick the Cardinals. I thought based on fairly decent logic.
I’m not all that familiar with the Cardinals rotation once you get past Wainwright, Carpenter and Lohse but who knows maybe for the right price the Cardinals might find a spot for him in the rotation.
I’m pretty sure we would willingly move Westbrook to the pen if that scenario came to fruition.
His coming to Boston would increase their odds of winning ten-fold. It would actually make it a pretty decent off-season, too.
I doubt he comes to Boston. If he was going to come to Boston I feel like he would’ve signed already. If he does however I will drink in happiness.
He could go there, but he turned down $10 million a year from the Tigers who are a better team than Boston (not by much though). Boston is offering him the most money if I’m not mistaken of the remaining teams, but if he turned $10 mil from the Tigers, then it’s not about the money. However Boston is the only team among those interested that he has a 100% chance of being a SP. If he wants to be a starter, Boston is probably the best place to go.
Whatever his reason was he did turn down Detroit (at $10M) and did not turn down Boston (at $5-6M), so his turning down Detroit isn’t relevant.
I’m also not seeing how Detroit is a better team than Boston.
I don’t see how Detroit is a better team than Boston, but I definitely think they have a better chance of making the playoffs.
Definitely agree with that
Didn’t he turn down Detroit because they were too far away from his home in Mississippi? That’s probably the same reason why he did not yet accept Boston’s offer. I think Detroit is better because I give them an edge in pitching (both SP and bullpen) over Boston. I’m not saying they are better by a landslide or anything, don’t get me wrong.
I don’t know if that was the reason, but he didn’t outright turn down a lesser offer from Boston, so he obviously would prefer Boston to Detroit.
And I don’t see how Detroit has better pitching: Detroit only had two pitchers with ERAs 4.40 or lower and one of those two had a major breakout year, so there’s no certainty that he can replicate anything close to what he did last year (and his stats suggest at least some regression). The Sox might not have a pitcher of Verlander’s caliber, but they have three who could be better than the second best pitcher on the Tigers. And the Sox bullpen was considerably better than the Tiger’s ‘pen last year and the drop from Pap and Bard to Melancon and Bailey wont be enough to give the Tigers the edge this year.
1 of those pitchers with an ERA above 4.40 is gone (Penny) and they are replacing him with a top prospect in Turner. I also don’t expect Verlander to repeat his year but clearly he’s the best pitcher amongst the 2 teams. The keyword though you said with the Red Sox 3 pitchers is “could”. Beckett is not consistent enough and Buchholz has had 1 good season under his belt. Don’t forget Boston’s current #4 pitcher has made a total of 9 career starts and #5 pitcher has made a total of Zero starts. The only question mark about the Tigers rotation is Porcello, possibly Jacob Turner too if he makes the rotation. Even Buster Olney put the Tigers rotation as the 7th best in baseblal. Boston did not even make the top 11 (this was posted on Dec. 27th so I’m sure it could have been updated by now)
Yes you have Melancon/Bailey but I just can’t see them being as effective in Boston’s bullpen as Bard/Papelbon was, and I’d certainly take Benoit/Valverde over them. Don’t forget AA in Detroit’s bullpen too whereas Boston has to rely on Morales who I’m not saying is bad by the way.
Even leaving Penny out of it they had Scherzer (4.43), Porcello (4.75), and Coke (4.82) – I’m not sure which top prospect you are talking about them adding to the rotation, so I can’t really speak to that (don’t they have 5 starters left from last year). Beckett most certainly is consistent enough, I know people claim otherwise, but it’s not the case and I’ve pointed it out on here more times than I care to count; the Sox have two pitchers who would be the #2 on that staff and a third who legitimately could be.
The Red Sox got 4.5 more WAR out of their ‘pen than the Tigers, and they wont lose that much from last year (also, Benoit and Valverde were only worth 0.6 WAR more than Melancon and Bailey last year). I’m not sure what you mean about the Sox having to rely on Morales, I’m not convinced that he will even be on the team come opening day – they have much better options.
Coke wasn’t even a starter. He started until May. The top prospect is Jacob Turner.
I was just going off of what I saw on fangraphs; he made 14 starts for them so I assumed he was a “starter,” but if he isn’t then that’s fine.
Turner is the prospect I”m talking about, and I don’t use FanGraphs WAR for Pitching. On Baseball-Ref there WAR was very close. Only way I can separate BP from SP though as far as I know is adding them individually.
In total, Boston pitching had an 18.0 WAR and Detroit’s had an 18.3 WAR.
Coke is not even in their rotation anymore.
Beckett definitly has more consistent years than inconcsistent years but he’s not a lock to get a low 3’s ERA nor is he a lock to stay healthy, which is why I said there are ?’s surrounding him. Don’t take it as if I am not saying he isn’t a good pitcher by the way.
When I said relying on Morales, I was referring to a 7th inning relief pitcher.
Half of Beckett’s “inconsistent” years are completely consistent aside from his ERA.
Morales is hardly a guy they have to rely on for the 7th inning; they have Aceves, Bowden, Doubront, and Jenks when he returns who would all be better options than Morales, as well as possibly one of the options they brought in for the back of the rotation who doesn’t make it.
(not really related, but mentioning Jenks reminded me of a picture I saw of him about a week ago; he looks like he has seriously lost 80 pounds or so – no exaggeration)
Aceves is in the rotation as of now isn’t he? Not sure how you consider Doubront a better option. I did forget about Bowden but I see he’s never thrown more than 20 innings in a season. Not sure if he has injury history or not. I also did forget about Jenks too.
No way is Aceves in the rotation. It’s looking like Padilla or Cook, with an outside shot for Doubront if he shows something in ST.
You clearly are just thumbing through stat pages to make your arguments, and you have no knowledge of how to use those stats.
Men lie, women lie, stats don’t. Not sure how I have “no knowledge”. If you can explain how Doubrunt is better than Morales, I’d like to hear how.
I never said that Doubront was better than Morales. But the idea that Boston is relying on Morales is absurd.
I came off a little strong back there, but what I’m saying is that you don’t have as good a sense of Boston’s depth chart as MaineSox and I, and you’re wrong about Boston’s bullpen relying on Morales. He’s being relied on as no more than a lefty-killer (and they have other options besides him if he can’t do that). If he can improve and become a 7th inning guy, great, but Boston is by no means relying on that.
Further, looking at ERA for Beckett is a common mistake made by people who are looking at stats (as they should!) but looking at them without taking in further contextual stats. ERA varies wildly year to year, even with the same underlying performances, due to the vagaries of balls in play, defense, and bullpen support. Beckett’s xFIP, which shows the pitcher’s underlying performance, has only varied from 3.08 to 3.63 the last five years, with the exception of his injury-riddled 2010.
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Doubront has much better command and control than Morales.
Aceves is competing with like 10 other guys for two spots in the rotation, and most assume it wont be him and Bard, rather, it will be him or Bard (they wont likely convert two relievers at the same time because of innings limits and such).
Bowden has been bouncing between AAA and MLB since ’08 (he does well in AAA as a starter but could never carry the success to MLB, so he was converted to a reliever last year), but he threw 72 innings last year, 121 innings in 2010, 142 innings in 2009, and 149 in 2008.
Finally someone besides me that uses baseball reference rather than Fangraphs!
Boston was far better in terms of runs scored and runs allowed last year. Their pitching only allowed 26 more runs than Detroit’s staff, while scoring 88 more runs. They finished 5 games behind Detroit due to terrible clutch performance (which tends to regress) and playing a much harder schedule.
Detroit gained Fielder, but lose Victor, so they’re improved, but not by leaps and bounds. Meanwhile, Boston improves simply by not having half their starts go to guys with ERAs over 5. The back of their rotation is hardly the best (it’s got upside, but still, hardly the best), but it just needs to be not abysmal to be a few wins better than it was last year.
I’d agree with MaineSox and jred above: Detroit’s a bit behind Boston, but if Oswalt’s only concern is making the playoffs, he’s better off with Detroit.
Of course, there’s been no talk that making the playoffs is a concern, let alone his only.
I was never talking about offense. I think Detroit has the 2 best hitters amongst the 2 teams lineups, however Detroit also has the worst hitters amongst the 2 teams, so I give Boston the edge in offense for sure.
If Oswalt went to Boston and if they moved Bard back in the bullpen, I think I might change my mind on which team is better, and keep in mind from the beginning, I said slightly better. I’m not acting as if Detroit is a superior team compared to Boston. They are still 2 very good ballclubs.
Not to interrupt you two but Id say Gonzalez>Fielder but perhaps that’s just my bias. What did he hit like .340 last year?
Lol you’re not interrupting. I think Gonzalez is definitely overall better than Fielder. Actually by a good margin. But with the bat I’d give the edge to Fielder, but it’s close. Gonzalez had a much better BA but Fielder’s wasn’t that low. Plus Fielder edged Gonzalez in OBP which I believe is better than BA.
Keep in mind that the Sox bullpen lost their closer and moved their set up man to the rotation. They replaced them with a good set up man, but still a downgrade, and a closer with a large injury history.
Right, but the difference in bullpen value was considerable last year, so even with the downgrade at both positions the Sox ‘pen should still be better.
I’m not saying that the Tigers are better, but I’m not saying that Sox are better either. I think that they are pretty close to being equal. The Yankees and Angels are in that same boat. I think that we’re in for a historic October.
Too bad all can’t make the playoffs. The AL has 6 teams that could be easily be 90-95 win teams.
There is a huge gap between really good and really bad in the AL. The only team that I can see being somewhat competitive outside of the big six, is Toronto. And it will take a miracle for them to leapfrog Boston, New York, and Tampa.
Agreed about Toronto.
The Angels have an amazing pitching staff, but even with Pujols their offense is lacking.
In fact, all of the top teams in the AL have very real concerns. If you asked me who the top 6 teams in the AL were I could probably tell you, but if you told me to put them in order I don’t think I could do it. It wouldn’t surprise me at all for them to finish the year in any order.
This I agree on. Although it’s not just the top teams in the AL that have concerns. Every single team in baseball has some concern one way or another. And as I said all 6 I can see winning 90-95 games, maybe with some of them winning as much as 100.
Yeah, I agree that every team in baseball has concerns, I was just singling out the top AL teams because we had mentioned most of them to this point.
Since you won’t be able to read my reply for the other one because it’s trimming by the post:
“Doubront has much better command and control than Morales. ”
That wasn’t the case last year. Maybe in the minors yes but Morales pitched okay for Boston. Since Doubront only pitched 10 innings, I’ll let it slide, but he hasn’t shown control at all yet.
Small sample but Morales’ most effective inning last year was indeed the 7th inning.
I am not saying Morales will have a better year, but there’s no way as of now I can say Doubront is better.
Before last year Doubront had not, at any level, walked as many as 4 batters per 9 innings at any point in his career; Morales has averaged almost 5 per 9 and has (many times) walked 6 or more per 9. Similarly, before last year, Doubront had only once, at one level, had a BB% as high as 10% while Morales has only had a BB% below 10% once (twice if you count his 9.8% last year), at one level, and has been as high as 17% twice.
Doubront can also make spots starts if you need him to or he can go several innings in relief if needed; Morales can do neither.
I looked up the WAR for the Tigers pitchers and the Sox, and through the first four, the Tigers have advantages against each pitcher. It’s not fair to look at the number five spot, since neither team is really sure what to expect. I think that it’s safe to say that Detroit has a better rotation.
Yes, but Boston has a better bullpen, better defense, and better offense. I’d say Boston has the advantage overall, if not by more than two or three wins.
You’re using WAR from last year in which Bostons 2 best relief pitchers minus Aceves are not relief pitchers for this year. Detroit’s back end is better than Bostons. Defense and offense I would definitely give to Boston.
I’m not using WAR at all. I’m looking at other stats and saying that Bailey and Melancon are better than Valverde and Benoit. But if you want to talk WAR projections, Bailey/Malancon are projected through FG’s crowdsourcingfor 2.1 WAR, Benoit/Valverde for 1.7.
This makes intuitive sense when you look at their stats; Benoit and Bailey have very similar track records, with Melancon a half-step below them due to not having quite as pinpoint control, and Valverde a full step below that due to his poor control.
Detroit wants him to be a starter. They would then put Turner in AAA for a year.
But he already turned down an offer from them which is why I said of Boston, Texas and St. Louis, he’s only guaranteed to land a SP spot in Boston.
He’s never been made an offer from Boston, to my knowledge. They have only had talks. Detroit offered him a contract.
Hmm, I could have sworn Boston offered him something like $5 or $6 million. My mistake then.
The last report was that Boston was the only team with a valid offer still on the table. This was a week or two ago, so who knows if the offer is still valid, but they definitely did have a real offer on the table at one point. And while he didn’t accept the offer, he didn’t outright say no either; he wanted to see if one of the teams he preferred would/could make room for him.
He would fit PERFECTLY with the a’s, they need a 5th starter (he’d push godfrey/ross/milone back to #5) for while braden and anderson are injured and until parker and peacock are ready
however, sadly, i give that a 1% chance of happening
At least I’m already kind of frustrated with Oswalt to the point where bad news won’t crush me.
Never say never with Redsox.
I am going with “Upset Specials” all Dark Horses.
Oswalt signs with the Mets. I would be interested in seeing Santana and Oswalt in the same rotation.
Oswalt signs with the Royals. That would be sweet.
Oswalt signs with the Nats. Nats trade Lannon and they pick up Oz. That would be interesting as well.
I don’t see the Red Sox or Cards, because I think it would have happened already.
The A’s as a few have stated…. nah. No Rangers either.
Why not the Indians since Garland left maybe, but probable not.
Let me recap
Mets
Nats
Royals
PS Dan Duquette you smell! :p
And you thought I wouldn’t get a lick on O’s management. I waited till the last to do it!
I agree with you, I think it will be someone out of left field. I doubt the Mets though, and the Nationals should be content with their rotation. The Royals I could see. I get the feeling that the Indians and Blue Jays both probably reentered the picture quietly, because, let’s be honest, if the Cardinals or Rangers had any interest, they’d have done it already.
I’ll take Houston as the long-shot. Yeah, he’ll only win three games, but he’ll be back where he started and even three wins is enough to pass Niekro as the all time Astros leader. Two seasons, and he gets the 273 K’s he needs to pass Nolan Ryan for first on the Astros strikeout list
and if he wants to win he will sign with the Tigers. =)
I wouldnt be surprised if all the talk from the reds in not being that interested if at all was just a ploy to make them selves out on oswalt and then they end up signing him for like 6 or 7 million.
Padres $6MM with $4-5MM in incentives which padres won’t have to worry about since they will flip him at the break. He can pitch its a matter of his back being healthy so why not pick a park where his abilities will be maximized? And on the off off chance Pads are in it he is well worth having for the full year
Mystery team will get him which is the tigers cause he already turned us down so no one will expect it
why would he want to live in Detroit?
Who said he has to live in Detroit he could rent an apartment in Ann arbor for all you know
Apparently naming a ton of great cities around Detroit is against the rules of this website, because it’s telling me that it needs to be aproved, in others word, it won’t be looked at.
Point is, Birmingham, Grosse Pointe, and Ann Arbor are rich communities around the city that players live in.
Sheesh why does this type of comment have to come up in every Detroit related free agent topic? Hate to disappoint you, but Tiger players don’t live in the slums of Detroit, nevermind that Comerica and midtown is actually a good part of the city.
People base all of their opinions on what they see on the news. No one that says Detroit is awful has actually been there. If they say they have, they’re most likley lieing.
Why would he want to live in Detroit? (kidding)
I feel that the Pirates could be the mystery team. They have 8-10 million to spend. And a rotation of Burnett, Oswalt, Bedard, J Mac, and Morton would be decent. Or it would be a train wreck with injuries. But hope springs eternal…so it would be really solid. Maybe he reconsiders since they acquired another veteran?
Oswalt to the Pirates is actually an intriguing idea. The NL Central is up for grabs and the Pirates were actually contenders around the all star break last year. Burnett could be a better pitcher in a less stressful environment and a pitcher with Oswalt’s skill could help tip the balance of power.
Not saying it would make them an instant contender, but with a little luck it could keep them as a darkhorse.
I think Oswalt should go to St. Louis and the Cardinals should clear space for him by sending Chris Carpenter to Boston, just so we can finally get the guy mlbtr keeps linking us to 😉
Boston already got Chris Carpenter as compensation for Theo.
Boston almost got Carp after the trading deadline. Deal was in works but he got claimed on waivers. With Carp Bosox would be flying championship banner for 2011.
???
White Sox? KW under the radar….
That’s be a bad move by KW, which is why it woulnd’t surprise me. The White Sox need to rebuild. Until they get out of nuetral, they will be a .500 team.
Doesn’t Atlanta make a lot of sense? They got a couple starters with health issues last year and Atlanta would be close to home.
Brewers
If his asking prices haven’t dropped by now, he might as well just retire. Oswalt can’t afford to be picky about contract wants because a lot of teams are already backing away because of his back problems.
With the Cards for $7 million with incentives could reach 9. Cards send Westbrook to Indians along with $4 million. Cards then send McCllelen to A’s.
If only it would be that easy. Westbrook has a no-trade clause and is owed a lot this year. Although he might accept a trade back to his former team, its unlikely to happen. Also McClellan to the A’s is just flat out random.
Neither of these deals will likely happen and if Oswalt are to sign with the Cards, it will be on a really low salary unless Mo has found a trade partner for McClellan
i’ve actually been saying mclellan to the a’s for a while, it makes a lot of sense.
he’d be a perfect spot starter while braden/anderson are rehabbing and while parker/peacock are developing (i’m just going by b-ref, says he made a bunch of starts last year), and then he’d move back to the bullpen when the rotation is filled out, unless there’s another injury.
something like brandon allen/daric barton plus maybe a lower tier prospect? i dunno what the a’s have that the cards would want
but yeah, mclellan fits in with the a’s
I don’t believe that the Cardinals would worry to much about what they get in return, as long as the other team takes the salary (which is hardly anything because he’s only in arbitration at the moment) so they can sign Oswalt. I think the Cardinals have moved on from Oswalt and are fine with what they have in the rotation/bullpen. But then again, there are lots of surprises that happen in the baseball world
Michael Taylor would be a nice fit. Cards need RH bat off the bench with some power and speed. Kmac would do well in that park and could be a good trade chip at the trading deadline.
It would be funny if Roy ends up back in Houston as the de facto ace of that staff, but if he wants to win, he’ll go whack one of the Rangers pitchers’ knees.
A lot of talk about Oswalt not having a spot in St.Louis. I’m a huge Cards fan, and can say without a doubt he has a spot. Busch has been known to be a pitchers park, so it’s a safe pick for him (so he can up his numbers and go at it next year. The AL west is suicide for a pitcher trying to come back. example John Smoltz). That being said Oswalt and his injury issues is better than Westbrook on any day. Oswalt could be the #4 behind the lefty Garcia and before Kyle Lohse, with Westbrook either waving his no trade and leaving (not sure who would take him..Houston?) or becomes a long reliever/6th starter with somebody like Kyle McClellan being sent out. 12 in 12 baby!
I agree with ya. The main issue though is money, not finding him a spot. Finding room for him is actually quite easy as you mentioned. The key to getting Oswalt signed would have to be trading McClellan I assume, then moving Westbrook to the pen to take over McClellan’s role. Then there will be a few extra million available to add on to a chunk higher amount of money to get Oswalt in the Cardinal Rotation. Having a rotation of Wainwright, Carp, Garcia, Oswalt and Lohse could be very scary
I didn’t want to over kill on my comment, but you’re exactly right. It’s all about the money. If Mo’ can shuffle around the payroll like he’s been wanting to AND get Roy at the Cardinals price or somewhere near, it should be a done deal. I’m not banking on the fact that Oswalt will lower the price, but he has to realize this isn’t 2005 and he’s on the wrong side of 30.
I didn’t want to over kill on my comment, but you’re exactly right. It’s all about the money. If Mo’ can shuffle around the payroll like he’s been wanting to AND get Roy at the Cardinals price or somewhere near, it should be a done deal. I’m not banking on the fact that Oswalt will lower the price, but he has to realize this isn’t 2005 and he’s on the wrong side of 30.
The SF Giants need another starter and Roy Oswalt could be the one to put them over the top. The Giants need a big righthanded bat and an outfielder with power.