The two biggest free agent contracts handed out by NL East teams this offseason went to Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle of the Marlins. They signed deals worth $106MM and $58MM, respectively, in December. Here are the latest links from the division…
- Bob Nightengale of USA Today previews the 2012-13 free agent market and explains that Cole Hamels and B.J. Upton project as two of the top available players. Nightengale suggests Johan Santana’s $137.5MM contract could be a target for Hamels, who has had some talks with the Phillies about a long-term extension. The Phillies aren’t expected to offer the left-hander more than five years, Nightengale writes.
- Now that the Marlins have officially missed out on Yoenis Cespedes, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com examines the team's center field options. Emilio Bonifacio figures to start in center with Aaron Rowand, Chris Coghlan and other players in the mix for reserve roles.
- Frisaro doubts the Marlins will make a last-minute push for Ivan Rodriguez.
- Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com suggests Braves right-hander Jair Jurrjens could draw trade interest this spring if he appears to be healthy.
B.J. Upton not Justin!
Yeah, I looked at that and was really confused.
calling it now, BJ upton will get overpaid by a MILE by the Nationals… 6 years 80 million (whether he’s traded there first or not.)
Maybe if the Nats have a good year they do not have to overpay. The reason the had to for a guy like Werth is cause that is the only way they can draw the big FA right now. Its not like the Yankees, who while they throw money around too could offer significantly less cause they contend almost every year.
He’ll be just 28-years-old in August and he’s averaging 4 wins a year. That’s an overpay, but not by a mile….
I got so excited that I missed that Justin was going to be a free agent, then equally disappointed when I remembered it was BJ.
As a Phillies fan they better be ready to go more then 5 years for Hamels or they will lose him.
The Lee deal would be more than fair for him.
When Lee signed, he was 32. Hamels will be three years younger, and he’s just as good. He’d be a fool to sign for the same money as Lee when it’s practically guaranteed that several teams will offer him more than that.
Lee was also better.
Key word: was. If you think Cliff Lee will continue to be better, from ages 33-38, than Cole Hamels from ages 29-34, then you’re in a distinct minority. A minority that doesn’t include any MLB GMs, I might add.
Not really. Cliff’s four years older than Cole. I don’t see him settling for less than six unless they blow up the AAV like they did with Howard.
Could be wrong but I’d think 6 years $22 million per is where they’ll end up.
Phillies can afford to pay Hamels whatever he wants. Their new TV deal is going to be something like 5 billion dollars.
Where are you getting that number from? We’re a smaller market than LA, and the Angels didn’t get one that big even after signing Pujols.
Also, let’s not forget that the Phillies have a minority stake in CSN Philly.
Their TV deal is up in 2015 and if they keep receiving the fan support they’re receiving, Comcast is going to have to pay up.
We’re the highest rated (locally) team in MLB or somewhere in the top 3.
MLB local ratings are a percentage-based statistic. Even having 80% viewership (which is ridiculously higher than what that number really is, guaranteed) of the ~6 million residents in the greater Philadelphia metropolitan area would only put us slightly above a similar percentage viewership in the greater Boston area (4.6 million pop, but add in the rest of New England, for the most part), and significantly less than the greater NYC (22M) or LA (18M).
That it hits a higher percentage than other areas is handy for reaching target consumers in a particular market, but the lower overall number of viewers means that national advertisers won’t pay as much to market during Phillies games as during Angels/Dodgers/Yankees/Mets/Red Sox games. That leads to a smaller (monetarily) contract.
You have no idea what you’re talking about. Read Gelb’s article from today. Phillies are in line for a 5Billion dollar deal.
Actually, you’re the one who doesn’t know what s/he is talking about. If you actually read the Gelb article, you would see that what was actually said was:
“So, yes, we are talking about a possible $5 billion dollar infusion beginning in 2016.”
That’s not “in line for,” but rather a Philly-area writer stating that the contract could be worth as much as 3 times that of the Padres, because our local ratings are 3 times stronger (Pads signed a 20-year deal “possibly worth as much as $1.5 billion,” which is likely a lot longer than the Phils are willing to go). Of course, the greater San Diego metropolitan area is smaller than Philly (a little more than half the size), but there also aren’t any other games in town, because it’s not like there are any other baseball teams as close to San Diego as the NYC teams or Orioles are to Philly.
You’ll also notice (in the very article you cited) that Scott Boras indicated that the new owner of the Dodgers will net $4-5BB for their regional sports rights. If you think that the number of eyes watching Dodgers games in the LA greater metro area is inferior to the number of eyes watching Phillies games in the Philly greater metro area, you obviously haven’t crunched the numbers very thoroughly.
If you were a national sports broadcasting company, with local affiliates geared towards individual markets, would you shell out as much to reach the potential 6 million fans in the Philly region as to reach the potential 18 million fans in the LA region?
finish him
Babality?
More like “you’re full of yourselfality”.
Oh snap! You sure showed me!
San Diego is actually exactly as far from Los Angeles as Philly is from the Bronx, and Anaheim is as close to SD as Philly is to Baltimore — plus you don’t have to drive through Newark!
Wait, were you being sarcastic? I can’t tell. Either way, I’m not disagreeing with your overall point.
The Phils will also have to resign Halliday in 2014. I still can’t believe the Phils haven’t won with Halliday and Lee. If they don’t win this year they become the biggest failure next to the Braves. They have been picked to win the series the last 4 years. I see they have an option on Halliday in 2014 which gives them 3 years to win the series again. You would think that Halliday would start to deminish in skill soon, he’s in his mid 30s. I see Hamels resinging with the Phils, 6/128.
They were not picked in 2008 and they were not picked in 2009. And they were not outright favorites in 2010 or 2011.
Assuming the Phillies want to re-sign Halladay in 2014 (for the 2015 season – he’s got an option for 2014 he’s almost guaranteed to manage). If so, either his skills won’t have declined as much as you indicate, or he’ll sign for less money.
Either way, it works out.
So the Philly area ends outside the Philly borders? You do realize there are millions of viewers in DE/MD/NJ as well. I’ll take a well-respected newspaper writer’s view over yours, thank you very much.
You notice I said “the greater Philadelphia Metropolitan Area,” right? The city of Philadelphia on its own only has about 1.7MM residents. The greater Philadelphia Metropolitan Area includes significant swathes of Delaware, NJ, and East-central PA.
Beyond that, it doesn’t matter, because they won’t be served by any Philly regional sports network, so the games will either be broadcast solely on specialty services (MLB Extra Innings, MLB.TV, etc.) or national broadcasts (NBC, ESPN, FOX) whose contracts don’t factor in to the rights contract that comes up in 2015.
Philly has had the best local ratings in all of baseball I believe.
What about the 189 cap in 2014?
If Coghlan really has come back, I see Coghlan being in the reserve role. Beyond that, I’m not so sure Rowand has a chance of making the team. The Marlins already have two better and younger choices for outfield reserve in Scott Cousins and Bryan Petersen. They’ll have one of these guys as outfield reserve, and Dobbs as infield reserve. Probably one more will be added for insurance, and unless the Marlins feel a veteran presence is necessary, or one or two of Coghlan, Cousins, and Petersen get injured, Rowand probably will not make the team.
The thought of Bonifacio as the starting CF scares me.. If had seriously thought the FO was contemplating that??? I would have been all over this board.. Hammering away for Beinfest to sign Crisp and no dice intended at Bonifacio’s bat.. He just is not a defender at any position really and they should consider hiding him anywhere else but one of the most critical defensive positions on the field..
Yes.. I understand he has the arm and yes..The speed, but other than 3b.. This is his worst defensive position he has played and poor Emilio gets some of the worst jumps on balls of anyone I can recall for years..
This is a disaster in waiting, maybe not as bad as when they tried him as a 3b a couple years back, but CLOSE….
Edit:
Maybe should add that possibly some of the ‘read” issues can be worked out, not altogether in ST of course and can be improved upon.. But I fully expect an awful lot of Tommy Hutton acts of disbelif over his defense at the beging of the season at the very least if Bonifacio is the starting CF. Granted.. They dearly need his speed and hustle in the order…
The reality is that the Marlins are more than willing to let a guy develop at a new position in the Majors. Chris Coghlan is a natural 2B, but they put him in CF. Logan Morrison is a natural 1B put they put him in LF. Even this season, Hanley is being moved from SS to 3B.
However, Bonifacio isn’t going in completely inexperience at CF. He plays the outfield, including CF, in winter ball. Last season, he played CF when the Marlins used Dobbs at 3B. His improved offense is worth risking his defense. With him and Reyes at the top of the lineup, they’ll definitely trip the pitcher up with their speed and stolen base threat, and make hits easier for Hanley and Stanton. I think Bonifacio will provide a higher net run total than other possible CF, such as Crisp. He might allow a few more runs by getting poor jumps (something that he can learn, just like he learned how to hit and steal properly), but the runs he’ll produce for the Marlins will make up for it.
And it won’t even be close to when they tried him at 3B. Now THAT was a disaster. He didn’t even hit well to compensate. I was one who wrote him off after that and kept asking myself why the Marlins would play him when he’s so bad, but he managed to turn it around last year and turned my opinion as well.
Trader Jack IMO helped him get his career back on track, as he was still somewhat out of whack after that 3b debacle and jack even finally got him to use his speed as you know and don’t be afraid of getting caught stealing.
Was not saying in the above post to remove Bonifacio entirely.. but there just has to be somewhere they can hide his glove.. or get him to work at *1* position in winter ball, XST, something and have him focus entirely on that position. Was why thinking Crisp would have been a good choice now (looking back) since he is one of the best CF gloves in the game and brings pretty much everything else Bonifacio has to offer, except crisp has nothing for an arm..
One thing we have.. it should be an exciting season.. Just hope JJ stays healthy and as we have discussed before.. Lock up Anibel SOON.
I’m just not sure they can hide his glove. The Marlins probably won’t sign Crisp just so Bonifacio can have some extra time to develop in XST. Plus, they definitely do not need ANOTHER outfield reserve. All the other positions are locked up, so Bonifacio must play CF. His speed at the top of the lineup is too valuable to me. Also, Trader Jack is still with the organization as an advisor. I’m sure they can ask him to talk to Bonifacio if he stumbles out of the gate.
And yep, it will definitely be an exciting season.
Jair Jurrjens for Wil Myers.
Why would Royals do that? JJ is not worth prospects like Myers..who is the category below Trout and Harper with G Brown and Gose.
I think the Braves might need to kick in a B prospect like a Zeke Spruill or JJ Hoover to make it happen, but that is one of the few trades for JJ that makes sense to me.
I’d do Hanson for Wil Myers+ a B prospect though.
Then again, I think Beachy has more potential then Hanson, so I think it would be selling high on Hanson.
They aren’t trading a top 10 prospect for JJ. Maybe Atlanta could trade a top pitching prospect for him. Maybe Cain…not Myers
Let me guess. Your reservations about Hanson are his ability to hold runners. Did you think of that all by yourself? Reports are he has switch to a more traditional delivery and focusing more on using his legs as opposed to all arm to try to keep his arm healthy. It should also allow him to hold runners better to.
Selling high on Hanson?! What?! The man didn’t even the finish the year with the club. Hanson has ace written all over him while Myers is hitting minor league pitching well. Who cares? We’ll have the money in 2013 freed up to go after OF upgrades if we need to, but we won’t ever have the money available to go after what Hanson will be — a top-tier pitcher. He’s refined his pitching motion.
They’ve already talked about it, and KC declined. I don’t know why they’d revisit it. KC has the youngest everyday lineup in baseball, and they’re content to let their SP prospects develop rather than dealing away one of the top hitting prospects in baseball for a pitcher who gets hurt every other year.
Moore has already said he wants to have the room for his top-tier prospect arms to show what they’re capable of. With that said, he said further back that he’s inclined to give up any prospects for top-tier pitching, unsure if he includes JJ in that top-tier.
He does not include JJ in that tier. Nobody does.
And yes, he said he’d give up prospects, but almost in the next breath he said they were “not inclined” to include Wil Myers in ANY deal.
I think you underestimate MLB GM’s. I’m sure there’s someone out there who sees Jurrjens as a legit #2 starter and if this toe thing really is true and he has a good first half, I can see a desperate team flipping a prospect like Myers for him. It won’t be Myers, but we’ve all seen some insane trades these past 5 years…
From what I’m hearing the Royals are the team that most of the people inside of baseball think are ready for a break out year.
That USA Today article was pure garbage… has he never heard of club options? BJ Upton should have no problem getting well over $100MM but Victorino gets thrown in with Carlos Lee? REALLY? Dan Haren won’t be a FA but he’s an ace. Just shockingly bad. He mentions David Wright has an option but acts like Shields/Soria/Haren don’t have any. And we all know Mariano Rivera is going back to the Yankees or retiring.
How about sending Jurrjens to Florida for Bonafacio and Dominguez?
Doesn’t make much sense for the Marlins….
Braves don’t need Dominguez. They’ve already got guys who can’t hit.
Zip it Knobler. I mean really, enough is enough. He’s pitching for the Braves this year, you’re about 3 months behind on the trade rumors, time to move on. Now whether or not he gets traded at the deadline is another story.
Knobler will report Tigers signed Fielder in 2013.
And if you read the article he doesn’t actually say anything at all. It’s pure speculation because there is nothing else to write about. He isn’t even referencing an old rumor. It’s exactly like the Prado/Colorado rumors that kept popping up.
I agree, teams are almost set at this point in the off season, just a few tweeks and their ready to go.
underpay/overpay? seth smith, grant green plus a lower tier prospect for jair jurrjens, no idea what the braves wants/needs are
Seth Smith gets traded and STILL he is connected with ATL. Unbelievable. The Braves NEEDS are whatever Smith isn’t. The only reason he was a part of a trade involving JJ was because he was the 2nd piece in a deal for CF Tim Wheeler, which they wouldn’t do.
With Hudson’s opening day status in limbo, no way they trade Jurrjens unless they’re overwhelmed with a package(which would be hilarious to see). I think Hudson’s gonna miss some time, so the rotation should look something like Hanson, Beachy, Jurrjens, Minor, Teheran/Delgado.
Supposedly the cause of Jurrjens knee issues these past two years have been a shorter than normal ligament in his right big toe. They fit him with orthotics and he claims the pain was completely gone a couple of weeks later. If true, that’s some really encouraging news. Considering the hauls teams have been getting for guys like Gio Gonzalez and Mat Latos, Jurrjens having a strong first-half could land them a pretty decent package/player. Jurrjens isn’t as good as either of those two, so expecting the same package wouldn’t be reasonable. But with such a pitching-starved market, I think he’ll be moved if he’s healthy at the break and one or two of these young arms are ready to take his spot.
Haha that Jurrjens article is like, five paragraphs of “The Braves might try to trade Jurrjens if he is healthy. He wasn’t so they couldn’t, but if he is they might.”