The Red Sox obtained Andrew Bailey and Ryan Sweeney from the Athletics yesterday, sending Josh Reddick, Miles Head and Raul Alcantara to Oakland. Here's the latest on the Red Sox as reaction to and analysis of the trade continues…
- Ryan Kalish says he had left shoulder surgery in November in addition to his September neck operation, according to Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. Kalish may be ready for game action by May or June, but he doesn’t have a clear timetable. The Red Sox have Sweeney and Darnell McDonald in right, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see them pursue other options.
- The Red Sox never got the sense that Ryan Madson’s price was going to drop enough to make him a viable option, tweets Rob Bradford of WEEI.com.
- Bailey would have been traded to Texas if the Red Sox hadn't included Reddick in the deal, Peter Gammons of MLB Network tweets.
- The Red Sox are now shooting for a starter, tweets Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. Heyman lists Hiroki Kuroda, Matt Garza, Roy Oswalt, Joe Saunders and Edwin Jackson as possibilities.
- Red Sox director of player development Ben Crockett told FanGraphs' David Laurila that Head can hit despite the fact that "he's not going to win any beauty contests." Jim Callis of Baseball America told Laurila that Head's stocky frame makes him difficult to project. "I do think he can hit, but he’s limited to playing first base and you just don’t see that many 5'10", 5'11" first basemen in the big leagues," he said.
- ESPN.com's Keith Law says Oakland got fair value for Bailey, whose health is an unknown, and Sweeney, whose raw power hasn't translated during games. Reddick provides the Athletics with additional years of control and Head and Alcantara could also prove useful. However, the Red Sox aren't likely to miss the trio of players they gave up and they obtained a proven closer.
I like the deal for both sides. We get a Bailey and a solid OF in Sweeny who could turn it up at Fenway. Miles head was soooooo blocked it isn’t even funny so keeping him was pointless, he was a perfect prospect to deal.
You will like Sweeney – solid – time to forget Big Papi
How does Papi have anything to do with Sweeney? Yeah Sweeney is a solid player but Papi is still a much better bat and they in no way conflict with each other. This is either the worst joke ever, or a puzzle wrapped in a mystery laced with an enigma that Tom Hanks will be hired to decode in the future.
Sweeney isn’t a solid player, he has a total of 1.0 WAR over his last 180 games in the bigs, thats terrible.
Bailey is solid and cheap but has a history of arm troubles. I think a lot would have to go wrong for this deal to look bad for Beane.
I completley acknowledge Baileys arm troubles but apparently he is 100%. So unless Reddick repeats, and at least one of those prospects starts regularly its a Sox win. But I think as of now its pretty even.
“Solid” you say.
Not a week ago you were saying “Bailey is a lights out borderline elite closer, not just a reliever.”
Adding in “All of these prospects can easily fizzle out or get hurt, WSN got the known quantity, which is an all star who can be relied on for 20+ QS and 200+ IP.
If you are talking about what team is going to get the best minor league numbers out of it, you are correct. But no one cares about that”
That was said in regards to Gonzalez, but the lack of consistency in your argument is pretty compelling. The Red Sox got an “all star” and all the A’s got back was a few prospects who can “easily fizzle out or get hurt.” Sure, maybe they’ll light up the low minors, “But no one cares about that.”
On paper, this isn’t as much of a steal as I’d like to say, but by and large the Red Sox got him relatively cheap. Reddick’s got potential, but as I said weeks ago, I don’t see him as a good fit for Oakland considering his poor plate discipline. As for Head and Alcantara, good pieces, but Head was never going to play for us and Alcantara’s projectable, but a lot has to go right for this to work in Beane’s favor. It’s a very high risk, high reward return.
Greetings from the future. It is I, Tom Hanks! I hold the answers! Without further delay, here we go…he roots for a team that wanted Ortiz, possibly. He’s hoping the Sox will dump Ortiz so his team (I am guessing the A’s) will get Ortiz.
I admire your effort Tom Hanks.
Check Ortíz’s splits at Fenway and away… yeah, that’s why he quickly accepted whatever deal the sox offered to him, he is no stupid.
BWAHAHAHAAHAHAHA
Why is a guy who wasn’t even a starting OF for the A’s the last 2 years being called “solid” now?
Red Sox Hype Machine FTW.
Sweeney’s going to be a bench player. A guy who can come off the bench, draw a walk and play good defense is “solid,” no one’s expecting him to make the All Star team (Or even crack 300 plate appearances for that matter).
Crisp, DeJesus and Willingham were the CF, RF & LF respectively. While I’m abit at odds with ANOTHER left handed hitter he is a guy who the Sox think can slap 2b off the Wall with some consistency if he lands the starting RF job. 2Cents!
there goes the Red Sox , continuing to empty their farm for a quick fix..
Yeah.. they really emptied the farm on this one by getting rid of two guys in low A, one of which was an international free agent signing..
Every time I come on here I find some reasonable, intelligent Yankees fans (shout out to Yanksfansince78 and a few others I can’t remember off the top of my head). I also find a bunch of idiots like you, often Yankees fans, that give your fanbase a bad name. Get your head out of the gutter.
Is this sarcasm? I really can’t tell.
In case it isn’t sarcasm: You realize that they gave up a 1B prospect who has a decent ceiling but is far from reaching it (and they have one of the games best 1B already locked up for the next 7 years), a 19 year old pitcher with plus-potential-stuff who has no command and mid-rotation starter potential (also a long way from reaching potential), and an average-ish RF (with occasional All-Star potential if he learns plate discipline).
One was not ranked, one was the #21 prospect, and one was the #23 prospect; hardly emptying their farm…
seriously?
I have never seen Miles but I am picturing Kirby Puckett playing 1b.
Well watch Prince Fielder or old footage of John Kruk or heck even Billy Butler when he can find his glove and the Royals allow him to play 1st!
PS Butler is like 6’2 though, still some say he plays 1st like he’s 5’11 =P
Miles Head shrunk two inches in the same article
He’s listed at 6’0″, 215 lb, since when is that “short and stocky”? Seems kind of normal to me.
Also pretty funny reading this article about how he’d never amount to anything more than a 1B, and then reading that the A’s immediately told him that he’d be playing 3B next year.
Dustin Pedroia’s listed as anywhere from 5’7″-5’10”. Sometimes height listings are generous.
Listed weights and heights are rarely correct (Pedroia isn’t 5’9″ or 180), and 6’0″ is probably a little generous for Head and he’s probably a little more than 215. If I had to guess I’d say he’s closer to 5’10” 230, but it’s just a guess.
I don’t blame the A’s for trying him at 3B, it can’t hurt anything and if it works out they are better off because of it. But the fact that he was already moved to first base because he defense at 3B wasn’t deemed passable, and the fact that scouts are saying they don’t expect him to be able to play there, should both suggest that the chances are pretty slim that it works.
For Oakland’s sake (and for Miles’ sake) I hope it does. I honestly do, I hope his defense is good enough to stick at 3B and I hope he becomes an above average 3B in the majors, but the chances of his defense being passable at 3B are slim.
Chances are slim, but Miles could slim down to have better chances.
I wish the Rays would’ve manned up here and dealt two or three prospects to get Bailey. We couldve easily dealt Archer(#3 prospect) and Brandon Guyer with one more B- prospect and Bailey couldve been had, probably with Sweeney who is pretty much Matt Joyce without the power boost. Great deal for the Sox
There should have been more teams in for Bailey, that’s the most surprising part.
The as aparently were worried about his elbow wouldnt be too surprised if other teams were as well
If it wasn’t In-Division the Sox and Rays match up well for trading. Sox have catcher,1B,and SS (Exposito,Lars,Iglesias(examples)) trade chips and the Rays have the 4th starter types to deal (Wade Davis).
LOL at Wade Davis being worth those type of prospects, even one of them would be funny.
And the Red Sox still have holes with a 170 mil payroll….
They only have holes to fill because Matsuzaka and Lackey went down with TJ… both of whom count towards that 170M last time I checked…
They would have holes if they hadnt gone down.
Like what?
Like what?
So does every other team who’s payroll is more or less than theirs.
There’s no perfect team.
Nope there isnt, but 170 mil should give you replacement level players at every position and be able to field a starting 5 with backups.
They have players who are at least replacement level for every position, as well as back ups for every position. If they have ‘holes’ it’s because they are trying to replace some of those players with better ones.
If you think I’m wrong, give me a position where they don’t have a “replacement level player” to fill the position.
They have players who are at least replacement level for every position, as well as back ups for every position. If they have ‘holes’ it’s because they are trying to replace some of those players with better ones.
If you think I’m wrong, give me a position where they don’t have a “replacement level player” to fill the position.
Troll.
Yankees don’t satisfy that with even a higher payroll.
By holes you mean we don’t have an stud at every position. Looks like we are a rotation signing and some depth signings away from finished and being completely ready to compete with anyone.
Well when most teams run out 5 man rotations and your team has 3 I would consider that a hole…..I just find it laughable that the Rays spend a quarter of what the red sox do and they have a full rotation.
If we lost for a decade in a row we would have a top prospect pitcher for every season too. Its not rocket science. Try competing every year and still having draft success, thats difficult. All people talk about is this extra bonus crap meanwhile we are turning out MVP candidates with picks nowhere near the top ten.
Try having a sub 50mm payroll. Seriously how is that possible? 170mm and only 3 starters?
Oh and good job turning out MVP candidates because thats all that matters. Have fun finishing third in your division again with 3 top 10 mvp finishers.
We had to have a collapse for the Rays to slip in dont forget that the overwhelming majority of the season we ran the league. So good luck to the Rays finishing 4th behind the Jays and not getting more top picks to bail them out. I don’t give praise to small payrolls just because. In reality they are just owners who don’t think its worth it to spend the money, not anyone’s problem but their own. And again we don’t just have three starting pitchers we are likely to have a strong top four and a solid 5th starter when the dust clears.
Lol you guys won what 90 games last year? Forget the collapse, you only won 90! That will not win the AL east and will have you finish in third again. The Rays were a 90 win team all year long and were just consistent, you guys were just really really really inconsistent. Nice to go off on a tangent about small market teams, point is you spend 3-4 times them and they have a much better rotation without holes. Just funny.
yeah 90 because we have over 30 games in the crap gutter of a collapse. Anymore brain busters?
Check who was in 1st the majority of the season until injuries happened….no ill wait.
Every team deals with injuries, you guys had no depth with a 170mm payroll. That is laughable.
We do have depth and we just don’t have depth that matches the quality of the pitchers that went down. No team ever really does unless they have a top prospect waiting to step in at the position.
Lol you cant match dice k? That should tell you something about your farm that is far worse than anything I am saying.
Yes, it tells us that we need to come in dead last almost every year for 10 years in a row to stockpile talent like the Rays did, right? Boston actually has fans that go to see the games. People would actually notice if the Sox were bad. The Rays have the advantage of having a perpetually empty stadium to lose in while they amass their considerable talent base.
small boxes….see above posts about hellickson/moore picked after the 4th.
Ya if the sox had a higher pick in th 13th round they could have taken moore.
And that is why Theo is the most over-rated GM in MLb
I don’t expect him to save the Cubs.
Have fun admiring all of the WS Championship trophies the Rays own. Oh, wait….
The amazing thing is that the Rays were THAT bad for THAT long. It really took them 10 straight years of losing 90+ games to stockpile the talent to compete?
jennings, moore, and hellickson all picked after the fourth.
And none of them the reason for the Rays recent success.
And none of them the reason for the Rays recent success.
Chuck LaMar and the old ownership did them no favors.
”
I just find it laughable that the Rays spend a quarter of what the red sox do and they have a full rotation.”
The Rays have a full rotation, but at the expense of multiple gaping holes in their offense (Their wOBA was smack dab in the middle of the pack last year and they were just BARELY not the worst offense in the AL East thanks to a career year from Casey Kotchman). They have no DH and no first baseman. Additionally, their bullpen is an even bigger question mark than the Red Sox’.
The Rays have done an admirable job putting together a fantastic team with minimal resources, but the truly laughable thing is that people act like they don’t have any holes. Pretty much the only thing the Rays are all set at is their rotation.
I never said the Rays didnt have holes, they do. But you dont think they coudl fill those holes with 130 extra million bucks? Oh wait the sox cant….
Also you can find dhs/1b on the cheap on the FA market just about every single year.
No I don’t think they could fill those holes. There’s no perfect roster in the league no matter how much teams have spent. Even the Yankees don’t spend enough to guarantee top performance from every position. Guys get hurt, under-perform, etc. Bottom line is they still have to play the game no matter how the roster looks on paper. The Rays would never even pay an extra 130 mil so this is pointless.
with 130 mil extra they couldnt fill the holes at 1b/dh/ss? Okay……….someone is drinking before noon.
But you’re assuming it’s just that simple. The Rays just aren’t going to go out and spend that much money. There’s a reason why they have a good team right now with such a low payroll. It’s not just completely because they’re that good at scouting. They’ve also benefited greatly from years of losing and penny pinching and wouldn’t have such a roster at this price if they had spent like that. And with their ownership, if they increased payroll that much, you would start seeing holes in their lineups in years to come too. I see your point about the sox having those holes, but all teams do. All teams can say that because there’s no perfect system. If teams like the sox and yankess have shown anything, it’s that you can’t win by exclusively spending big or exclusively developing prospects. It takes a balance of both to sustain a winning franchise, and even then WS rings are no guarantee. That’s why it’s news when the yankees or red sox don’t make the playoffs, whereas it’s news when the Rays do make it. If the Rays had been spending that much they wouldn’t have all those prospects who are hitting the big leagues now. They all have holes in their rosters for completely different reasons. Except some continue to put out teams that win each year and some don’t.
Filling holes with money isn’t so easy as all that. The market has to suit your needs and right now the needs the Rays have aren’t in generous supply.
And yeah, you can find DHs and 1B cheap on the FA market, but finding a good one is the point. The Rays could certainly throw a warm body out there just as easily as the Sox could decide to try Joe Iglesias as their fifth starter, but neither move fixes said glaring hole.
Frankly speaking, fixing an offense that has maybe three or four sure bets to produce above replacement level is harder than finding one back of the rotation starter and a fourth outfielder.
One back of the rotation starter? You mean two because they needed to convert bard, and clay/beckett are both question marks.
So what you are saying is the rays couldnt fix their holes in their lineup with dhs/1b for 135 mil? Jeeze with that money they could sign both fielder and had gotten pujols! Finding good ones yes but the rays get value from the positions like kotchman, yes it backfires(burrell) sometimes but I trust them to get quality again this offseason and compete with a full year of jennings/moore. I dont care what people think bard can do, moore’s ceiling is much much higher and jennings/moore contribute more to a team than anythign the red sox just got.
Also bottom of the AL east in offense is nothing, they still were a middle of the pack offense in the league which is fine. As the giants proved, thats all you need.
Bard fills the hole meaning they’re only looking for one. Whether they’re question marks or not past that is entirely your opinion, but the fact of the matter is that adding Bailey pretty much cements Bard in the rotation breaking ST, meaning they currently have four starters.
For every “question mark” the Red Sox have, the Rays have one. Will Farnsworth repeat, or will he revert to type (And repeat this question for essentially their entire bullpen)? How many runs is an offense whose best hitter has never pulled an OPS over .900 and who has more question marks than viable contributors (Longo, Jennings, Zobrist, ?), what’s Upton going to do? Heck, will he be with the team come ST?
Maddon’s going to coax some overperformances out of some players, but that’s a team that could just as soon resemble the 2011 Giants as the 2010 Giants.
So yeah, the Sox have some holes, but so does everyone else. Live with it and underestimate them at your own peril.
Just admit is pathetic that they have holes and uncertainty with so much money to throw around.
It’s not pathetic though, every team has holes and uncertainty (including the Yankees who spend considerably more money), sometimes player don’t work out like you think they will or are injured (Lackey and Dice-K) and the money has nothing to do with it.
Money allows you to fill holes with established veterans.
Lackey was an established veteran when they signed him.
As soon as you admit you’re talking out of your backside with absolutely nothing to back up the nonsense you’re spewing.
Come on you dont find it at all funny that the Red Sox and Yankees spend about 400mm a year and havent been to the world series in 2 years? Thats almost half a billion dollars and they werent even the best teams in the AL!
That depends, how hilarious did you find the Tigers finishing as a sub-.500 team in 2008 despite having the MLB’s second highest payroll?
Injuries happen and the playoffs are a crapshoot. Spending large quantities of cash isn’t going to guarantee much more than a .500+ finish, unless you’re the Tigers, of course.
Bard fills the hole meaning they’re only looking for one. Whether they’re question marks or not past that is entirely your opinion, but the fact of the matter is that adding Bailey pretty much cements Bard in the rotation breaking ST, meaning they currently have four starters.
For every “question mark” the Red Sox have, the Rays have one. Will Farnsworth repeat, or will he revert to type (And repeat this question for essentially their entire bullpen)? How many runs is an offense whose best hitter has never pulled an OPS over .900 and who has more question marks than viable contributors (Longo, Jennings, Zobrist, ?), what’s Upton going to do? Heck, will he be with the team come ST?
Maddon’s going to coax some overperformances out of some players, but that’s a team that could just as soon resemble the 2011 Giants as the 2010 Giants.
So yeah, the Sox have some holes, but so does everyone else. Live with it and underestimate them at your own peril.
And the Yankees have a bigger rotation hole than the Sox do (as I mention again).
They also have an awful bp.
First of all, it’s only December… Secondly, Bard/Aceves will be the 4th or 5th starter, leaving only 1 spot to fill… and lastly, they have two of their five starters on the DL with TJ surgery. I don’t know what you expect them to do, and it’s really not that big of a hole. They will just fill it with a cheap free agent or let Doubront, Tazawa, and Miller fight it out.
Again lackey/dice k are holes even when healthy. 2 of your three have an injury history and the fourth is a converted reliever. If you are happy and content then Peter Gammons and ESPN have done their jobs.
Actually, after adjusting to the division, Lackey put up pretty strong numbers in the second half of 2010. A lot of reports indicate that Lackey probably should have had the TJ surgery back in April, which raises questions about how effective Lackey really would’ve been.
If the report is bunk, Lackey’s fallen off the table. If it’s true, we have no measure of his true talent level going forward, but his numbers were trending in the right direction past the 2010 ASB.
As for Matsuzaka, he’s been a better than league average starter when healthy, contrary to popular belief. Unfortunately for him, he hasn’t really been healthy for any lengthy stretch since 2009.
Have you ever thought that one of the reasons Lackey and DiceK weren’t performing well is because their elbows were messed up? DiceK was far from a hole when he was healthy. That doesn’t mean he wasn’t hard to watch. He drove me crazy. Still, I would take a healthy DiceK as my 4th starter any day.
Have you ever thought that the red sox training staff is just terrible? Seriously they dont diagnose this and their team has had major injuries the past 2 years.
Actually, the Sox training staff supposedly suggested surgery for Lackey in April, but he said no. If that’s true it’s on Lackey, not the staff.
Actually, the Sox training staff supposedly suggested surgery for Lackey in April, but he said no. If that’s true it’s on Lackey, not the staff.
The training staff may or may not be terrible. I’ve never seen one of them in a single game. Maybe it’s because, as a high payroll team, the Sox are an older team and with age comes more frequent injury. Who cares. The fact is, if a pitcher has a hurt elbow, they tend to not pitch as well.
In DiceK’s case, his injury might have started during the WBC in which case you can hardly blame the Sox staff.
So, by your logic here, the Sox should be fine now, considering they already gutted the strength and conditioning and medical staff.
Have you ever thought that the red sox training staff is just terrible? Seriously they dont diagnose this and their team has had major injuries the past 2 years.
Daisuke went 18-3 in 2008 with an ERA sub 3. That was when he was truly healthy. People wrote him off because of the injuries he dealt with over the past few seasons but when truly healthy he is no hole. I’ll take an 18-3 fourth or fifth starter any day of the week. Too bad about his injuries.
So… the Yankees have a rotation of two reliable pitchers (Sabathia, and Nova who is still questionable) and you haven’t said anything about them.
Actually I addressed the yankees.
People seem to forget the Sox had one of the best offenses in MLB last season with little too nothing from the RF position. It will be next to impossible for the Sox to produce that little again in in 2012. People also see Scutaro as a liability and I think he is under appreciated. His bat is very steady and he has managed to get big hits at big times. His defense is average at best but he works well with Dusty turning two. Give Sox one more starter and maybe one more righty bat and they are good-to-go
I think what I like best is Red Sox fans kidding themselves that they have a better team than last years. Your bullpen was outstanding from may to august, how are you going to replace that with bailey?
Because Bard has wayyyyy more potential than any converter reliever in a long time including CJ wilson so if he pans out which is likely to happen its gonna be big. Having more quality starts equals less need for over working the pen. Paps was great but we got in house guys and bailey/melancon/Aceves who are very very solid.
Did Petter Gammons tell you that?
If you have ever watched Bard pitch and seen his pitches you would reneg that statement. One of the nastiest sliders and fastballs in the league.
It takes at least 3 pitches to be a viable starter. That slider wont get him as far as a starter as it did as a reliever.
Randy Johnson says hi.
I think a 6’11” power sidearmed lefty can be an exception to the rule
Which goes to show the “rule” is just wrong. It’s about knowing how to pitch and having good pitches, not about the number of pitches.
lol true, I was talking about mortals.
Oh, in that case there’s not much to argue 🙂 Though it took RJ time to figure out how to pitch, so it’s not impossible. We’ll just have to see if Bard can perform as a starter first.
Oh, in that case there’s not much to argue 🙂 Though it took RJ time to figure out how to pitch, so it’s not impossible. We’ll just have to see if Bard can perform as a starter first.
He can get away with it for a few years (Cole Hamels 07-08) but he’ll need to refine them eventually.
Bard also throws a decent change up that he rarely used as a reliever because he didn’t need to with his plus fastball and plus slider. I have to hand it to you, you are a pretty good troll.
He’s also got a change up that he still uses occasionally but hasn’t needed much out of the ‘pen, and when he came into the system he had 5 pitches in his arsenal.
Well in that case I guess it’s a good thing he has a cutter, changeup, and 2 seamer that he can throw but didn’t need to use as a reliever. Add that to his plus fastball and slider (which can also be thrown as a slurve) and he should be a decent 4th/5th starter.
Well in that case I guess it’s a good thing he has a cutter, changeup, and 2 seamer that he can throw but didn’t need to use as a reliever. Add that to his plus fastball and slider (which can also be thrown as a slurve) and he should be a decent 4th/5th starter.
He has somewhat of a change. It isn’t able to get used often when you’re just trying to get outs quickly in the 8th inning.
He doesnt have more potential as sp then joba did, and that fastball wont be 100 mph in the rotation
I don’t see anyway you can say that with any certainty. And of course it won’t ever consistently be 100MPH but he can always dial it up.
No, but 96-97 with movement (and not just a little), a wipe-out slider, and a change up is more than enough to be a successful starter.
Wont get an argument from me if anyone has the potential to be a starter go for it.
No, but 96-97 with movement (and not just a little), a wipe-out slider, and a change up is more than enough to be a successful starter.
Aceves has waaaaay more potential as a starter in 2012. The most innings Bard should throw as a starter is 120 and even that is asking for arm troubles in 2013 and beyond. Bard will take 3 years as a starter before he should finally have no innings limits. The Sox should sign Oswalt and move Aceves to the rotation and their pitching is all set (until someone gets hurt)
Aceves has the potential to throw more innings, but he doesn’t have the potential to throw better innings than what Bard could potentially throw (even ‘good’ Aceves, and good Aceves was out-performing his peripheral stats by an insane amount).
That may be true that Bard has the potential to throw 120 somewhat better innings than Aceves but how much better has yet to be seen. If he takes some oomf off of his fastball to allow him to pitch 5+ innings a game does it flatten out and become crushable? Does throwing his curveball for 5 innings blow up his elbow in june? Even if we are lucky and he stays healthy for 120 innings, who pitches the other 100+ innings? Doubront? Tazawa? Someone from the minors? Average that in with whatever Bard can get you and I’m putting my money on Aceves being the better choice.
Aceves isn’t going to pitch 200 innings either, 150 is probably more likely, so those guys are going to have to fill innings that he doesn’t throw as well. And moving Bard to the rotation isn’t just about next year, it’s as much about future years and he has the potential to be a very good starter in the future. There is also a very real chance that Aceves is absolutely terrible as a starter (his peripherals were similar to Lackey’s last year).
Aceves has a history of arm injuries, too. I doubt he could last a full season as a starter.
What fifth starter do you know who’s throwing 220 innings?
120-150 innings will get Bard to August or so if they’re conservative with him (Skipping him when possible, using off days in the schedule to give him extra rest) and that means Matsuzaka will be back from TJ and ready to replace him and you won’t even need that fifth starter in the playoffs should we get there. Whether you’re pleased with that idea or not is another matter entirely, but 120-150 should be enough from Bard.
Aceves has the potential to throw more innings, but he doesn’t have the potential to throw better innings than what Bard could potentially throw (even ‘good’ Aceves, and good Aceves was out-performing his peripheral stats by an insane amount).
That’s why you let Bard be the starter and keep Aceves in the bullpen to relieve AND spot start to keep Bard’s innings in check. Aceves can do both — Bard can’t.
Wow. You really think a team that needed an epic injury-fueled collapse (to the point where they had to keep throwing John Lackey out there with only half an elbow) in order to sink all the way to 90 wins is going to be worse next year? Because… what, they’ll be MORE injured?
Team’s got a ton of upside, and last year was their floor.
No I think they will be worse because their rotation/pen arent as good and papi will not have as great of a year.
So their rotation was filled with holes last year due to injury but… it’ll be worse this year?
Regression works both ways. Papi won’t be as good, Gonzalez could be even better, Ellsbury won’t be as good, Crawford and Youkilis and Scutaro will be better, etc.
Pretty reasonable to suspect they’ll be where they were last year.
I agree, where they were last year. 3rd place.
I wasn’t clear. I was talking about their offense being where they were last year.
You got me, though!
Unless we get slammed with injuries there is probably no way that happens. Sorry.
So let me get this straight:
Lackey and DiceK are holes even when they are healthy, but replacing them makes the rotation worse? Solid logic.
Gaining a full season of Buchholz isn’t going to have any affect on the rotation?
Ortiz is going to have a worse year because why? Because you want him to?
Will Crawford have a better year in your fictional scenario? My guess is no…
The bullpen wont be more than solid with Melancon and Bailey at the back end of it?
Yes lackey and dicek are holes and replacing them with bard and at the moment no one else are holes too. See theres more than 2 pitchers in the game with holes.
Clay will help if healthy, but hes coming off surgery, this isnt mlb the show.
I just think he will regress, not a contract year and hes getting older.
Crawford will probably do better if the media backs off of him.
The bullpen last year for the sox was great, sorry I dont have the confidence in bailey and melancon yet.
Clay is coming off of a minor surgery in which he could have pitched at the end of last season (but hadn’t pitched for several months so it would have had to have been out of the ‘pen), so he will be fully healthy long before spring training.
“Thinking” someone will regress, without anything substantive to back it, is not something you can say so definitively will make them worse.
Crawford will almost certainly be better next year; his decade worth of sample size prior to last year is more than enough to assume he didn’t suddenly forget how to play baseball.
Still Clay is a young pitcher coming off an injury and he needs to prove he can still be dominant, I think he will but still a question mark.
So the fact that players do better in contract years and the fact that is getting older and still out of shape and that body type typically breaks down isnt substantial? What reasons do you need? He decided to bat right handed with a twig?
Eh Crawford’s problems are mental, like I said if your media can back off of him he will do fine.
It’s not even close to a fact that players do better in contract years, he had his best season in years and attributed it to working with Gonzalez on his opposite field swing and his approach to hitting lefties, it wasn’t just a coincidental good year, there was a reason for it.
Okay then what about is body type? Age?
If he was on a long term deal you could be worried about the future with him, or if he were tailing off at the end of last year you could be worried about this year, but he literally showed nothing to suggest that he is breaking down. So saying that he will next year is nothing but an assumption based on guessing.
Clay is coming off of a minor surgery in which he could have pitched at the end of last season (but hadn’t pitched for several months so it would have had to have been out of the ‘pen), so he will be fully healthy long before spring training.
“Thinking” someone will regress, without anything substantive to back it, is not something you can say so definitively will make them worse.
Crawford will almost certainly be better next year; his decade worth of sample size prior to last year is more than enough to assume he didn’t suddenly forget how to play baseball.
Injuries are part of the gm every team has them you dont think the rays and the yankees had injuries last yr?
Every team has injuries. Few teams have the injuries Boston struggled with last year.
That said, of course, Boston has now struggled with massive injuries two years in a row, so it’s reasonable to think they could struggle with more injuries than the average team in 2012. But I’d say it’s still unlikely they’re as extremely unhealthy as they were last year, and with that comes regression upwards.
No im pretty sure the yankees had more injuries they lost hughes right away, lost arod for a significant portion, lost jeter for a few weeks, martin got injured, soriano was out for a month, joba was out for a while, felciano never played, and garcia and colon both missed some time with injuries.
So they lost a couple of their back-end relievers and back-end starters. Plus an old, mediocre Jeter. None of them missed significant time except for the poor relievers.
For it to be comparable, they would have had to have Nova pitch only 80 innings, Burnett to pitch through a torn elbow, and Colon to miss most of the season.
Offensively, Scutaro and Salty lost more time due to injury than their Yankee counterparts of Jeter and Martin.
The only position where the Yankees were less healthy was 3B, and then only by 100 PAs, since Youk missed time too.
My disclaimer about struggling with massive injuries two years in a row still stands, though.
Soriano and joba are back end relivers. Phil hughes is a bace end starter? Colon was having a great year when he got hurt and even at the end of the year his fip was great and his xfip was the same as becketts at the end of the year does that sound like he was a back end starter? Not too mention clay wasnt having a great season before he went down.
Perhaps calling Soriano a back end reliever is an exaggeration, but Joba hasn’t been a good reliever since 2008, and Hughes has never had a good year as a starter.
Anyway, my point with the relievers, though poorly stated, was that no injuries happened to the Yankees’ top two relievers, so they were fine. The Yankees had injuries to fewer major players than Boston, and most of their injuries were for a far shorter duration.
Look at the playing time on the rosters, man.
Joba was a great reliver for the past two years look at his fip, xfip and seirra. Clay was only major injury last year if you want to cancel arod and youk out which is a bit unfair as arod was having the better year but whatever. At no point last year even before the injuries was the sox staff outperforming the yankees btw.
The Red Sox are better. Adrian, Pedroia, and Youk can do full work outs this winter and won’t wear down at end of the season like last year. Crawford will do better in 2012 then in 2011, that being said the offense will be very scary. Add another starting pitcher and things look very good.
Yeah except we have pitchers for 4-5. Bard (High Celing, nasty nasty slider, can dial up to 100 with his fastball) and a competition between Miller, Doubront, Tazawa, or another FA for the 5 spot. Most teams would beg for the “Holes” the Sox got. Top offense, good D, solid pen with good internal candidates to improve it (I see Bowden becoming finally useful here), and a great front three rotation with a very strong possibility of having a Bard become the fourth. Yeah we are just Swiss cheesed up everywhere.
Not to nit-pick but Bard and a bag of nails is an improvement to Dice-K and Lackey but that doesn’t mean it isn’t still a hole (weakness worth exploiting).
Offensively they’re as good as it gets. Wasn’t Boston’s bullpen a sore point last year though?
Not really. Paps was locked in, Bard too, Albers was excellent like 75% of the season, Morales was solid, Wheeler was solid, Jenks was a disaster from the start and barely played, and Aceves was useful everywhere. Like the entire team the pen wore down last year because we had injuries in our SP and Lackey leaving games after giving up 8 runs in 2innings and they got overworked. Cherrington will make sure we have good depth, and Bard has huge starting potential with his repertoire. Yeah thats a question mark but so isn’t Yu Darvish and he isnt a hole in the Rangers rotation is he. At least Bard has gotten out the best MLB has to offer in a hitters park what can Yu say. Not hating on Yu at all but you see my point we have people at the position with very big potential otherwise they wouldn’t be doing it. So its not as if its not a quality solution. Then we have many internal candidates capable of pitching like 5 starters and bullpen arms, and free agents still on the market.
Bard has done that as a reliever, not as a starter. I would feel safer with Yu, at least he can handle a workload and not implode from being overworked. You cant argue with the fact that beckett is injury prone and clay is coming off a big injury. Bard is unproven as a starter, and your fifth starter will get wins because of the offense but wouldnt be a fifth starter on any mediocre team. Also youre bullpen has only gotten worse, Papelbon could pitch in boston very well and the other closers are question marks.
Pen is slightly worse but still gonna be very solid. Bard has come a long way and if he is stretched out im sure they will skip a start here and there to keep him fresh for an entire season. Beckett is injury prone latley and our offense is gonna get everybody wins not just the 5 starter. If we are healthy we are going to be in the playoffs guaranteed. And Yu is not a safer bet because they pitch every seven days now he has to adjust to a five day rotation so its not as if he wont be making adjustments, plus Bard has dominated pitchers he hasnt even faced before. All in the toughest division in baseball.
“If we are healthy we are going to be in the playoffs guaranteed.” lol I heard that last year.
What I meant by the get the fifth starter wins is that they will make him look better then he really is, like miller. Have fun finishing 3rd again. A 90 win team probably.
And they weren’t healthy. Where’s he going wrong exactly?
Bard has never pitched over 77 innings. Ever. Yes, that includes the minors.
Are you sure he can start?
Ogando had never thrown more than 41 innings before this year. Ever. Yes, that includes the minors.
No, I’m not sure Bard can start, but you never can be under these circumstances. That doesn’t mean you don’t do it, and with a (more than) solid top three all they need is someone to fill the 4th spot and Bard in the 5th will be more than fine. Depending on who they get for the 4th spot it could actually be very, very good.
Bard has never pitched over 77 innings. Ever. Yes, that includes the minors.
Are you sure he can start?
Albers has been pretty bad for most of his career and 64 innings isnt too much work
Lets live in the present. Presently until some regression occurs he had a solid season in the AL East at Fenway and is a solid option until proven otherwise. Good enough for me.
I am living in the present and from what i can see 2011 was not the first year in baseball history so i will look at albers career, which is more significant than limited success in a half season of work that eventually led to a fip of 4.
Paps and Bard won’t be there. Albers was “excellent like 75% of the season” is another way of saying he wasn’t that good (4.73 ERA with 1.43 WHIP), Wheeler was just as bad. Statistically, Boston was at best run of the mill with an elite closer.
I guess if you, or anyone feels Bard and a #5 can increase their quality appearance rates I see the same holes to exploit.
If they can add Oswalt which I’m guessing they will, then this is much less of an issue.
“statistically” being ERA and WHIP? Statistically the Red Sox bullpen was the best in the league last year.
Get back to me when Beckett gets injured again. So you have three proven starters, 2 with injury histories, a converted reliever who hasnt started in awhile, and a bunch of AAAA pitchers to round out the rotation. Sounds great……..
Injuries are what they are but with health we are going to be a great team this year. You better pray Bard doesn’t work out because if he does your gonna be eating your words in a major way. Yanks made the playoffs with a two great starters you don’t think we can do it with a solid pen, a top three offense, and four great starters. Who are you kidding? Pray we get injured.
Yankees have the best bullpen in the game. Four great starters?!?!?!!?!? Are you kidding me?!?! Bard hasnt started a game and hes already great? Jeez. Clay hasnt pitched since the back injury! But okay four great starters. Jeez.
Actually, when you take the different parks into account, Boston’s bullpen was better than New York’s last year.
Pretty sure Boston isn’t going to have four great starters, but his point, though he got carried away with it, is that you don’t need four aces (or even two) to win the world series, as ’11 and ’09 proved.
Right and boston’s pen isnt going to be nearly as good.
Ehh. Replace Papelbon and Bard with Bailey and Melancon isn’t much of a downgrade. The rest of the bullpen will likely regress upwards. If it’s worse, it’s not by much, and now it’s younger and cheaper.
Bard and Papelbon could handle boston very well, can bailey and melancon? Can bailey stay healthy? There are just too many things that need to go right for the sox pitching next season for me to have any confidence in them.
So, a pair of known quantities in the MLB shatter your confidence because they’ve never pitched in Boston.
Yet, you have complete confidence in the Rays to topple them despite their bullpen essentially being constituted currently by J.P. Howell and then mystery?
The Sox have holes, we get it. The Rays have more holes, though, as do the Jays and Orioles. The Yankees have about as many holes themselves.
The division is basically wide open between the Sox, Yankees and Rays (And only by virtue of the fact they can never be counted out, they have a much weaker team right now than either of the others) right now, but on paper, the Red Sox (Despite having a worse team ON PAPER than last year) are still a better team than the Rays.
Your entire argument boils down to the fact that the Sox only won 90 games last year in actualized performance and now have a worse team on paper while ignoring the gigantic elephant in the room that is the fact that the Sox went into 2011 with, by far, the best team in the AL by a wide margin on paper effectively proving that the games are not played on paper.
The Red Sox may not, in fact, make it into the playoffs next year. Anything can happen, but they’re at worst the second best team in the division as currently constituted. The Red Sox have gotten worse, but so has everyone else in the division except MAYBE the Blue Jays.
If you think the Rays have gotten worse you kidding yourself. The Jays have gotten better and will be great wiht a full season of lawrie and the rays have moore/jennings for a year. I still think the red sox will do good, 90 wins is good, but that will get them 3rd place because either the rays or the jays will win more than that.
The Rays have neither a first baseman nor DH. That’s worse and worse is that magical 90 win cutoff you’re assuming the Red Sox would be lucky to top, sorry.
The Jays are improving, but they’re still a few years away from being a contending team and I’m sorry, but a full season of Lawrie plus Santos isn’t going to magically give them another nine wins.
The Rays have neither a first baseman nor DH. That’s worse and worse is that magical 90 win cutoff you’re assuming the Red Sox would be lucky to top, sorry.
The Jays are improving, but they’re still a few years away from being a contending team and I’m sorry, but a full season of Lawrie plus Santos isn’t going to magically give them another nine wins.
So every Ray is taking a step forward and they are getting by with that offense. I am not buying it.
Yea young players come to your teama nd help it. Also longoria had a bad year and will rebound.
Longoriaunderperformedminimally,hewasstilloneofthebest3BintheMLBlastyear.Hewouldn’tjusthavetoreboundtosignificantlyimprovetheiroffense,he’dhavetooutrightuphiscareerOPSbyabout50-100points.
Yea young players come to your teama nd help it. Also longoria had a bad year and will rebound.
All speculation that doesn’t help your argument at all because its completely rooted in the unknown. As players they are very good and solidify our bullpen. Thats like me arguing that James shields really enjoyed bouncing back and possibly faltering is enough to possibly make him do it so now he is somehow a quesiton mark.
Both of our arguments are speculation. Bailey has an injury history sowwy!
Its not speculation to assume a player that is currently healthy will produce if healthy sowwwwy.
So injury history and new environment get thrown out the window? See crawford and lackey.
Assuming they wont have an effect makes exactly as much sense as assuming they will
I think what I like best is Red Sox fans kidding themselves that they have a better team than last years. Your bullpen was outstanding from may to august, how are you going to replace that with bailey?
So injury history and new environment get thrown out the window? See crawford and lackey.
How do you regress upwards?
It’s called regression toward the mean whether you are above or below the mean.
How do you regress upwards?
Obviously you don’t read well. I said you better hope Bard doesnt work out because if he does he is gonna be great. Secondly I know the Yanks bullpen is amazing and I never mentioned it. I mentioned their rotation exclusively because rotations with five studs seem to be the only ones that makes playoffs according to you. The Yanks exceptional front two last season is a perfect example of how wrong you are.
No, you can make the playoffs with an offense however the red sox offense will go up against the yankees and well the yankees will most likely win that battle. Your offense can get you to 90, but not 95+.
We have a better rotation than NY without Bard. And on any given game the Yanks and Soxs offense are a draw so I don’t see how we are most likely to lose. Especially since we beat them plenty last season. Your very bias. Your still mad about that season the Tigers got Willis and Cabrera and didnt get that WS they were supposed to be a lock for.
Biased* Not likely to lose as in under .500, just 3rd in a competitive division without a true elite team.
Actually I am more mad about renturia for juirjens.
Biased* Not likely to lose as in under .500, just 3rd in a competitive division without a true elite team.
Actually I am more mad about renturia for juirjens.
Ask the Yankees about playing us. Up until the collapse we had there number all season.
Their*
mature
Considering the downward spiral of his argument has been steeper than the drop in the Red Sox’ playoff chances last September, calling his maturity into question is the least of his concerns.
haha, true
Umm. Most teams have weak back of the rotation starters. And most teams would be jealous of Beckett and Lester at the top.
Beckett has only missed more than 1/8 of a season once in his Red Sox career. And that once wasn’t last season.
Right but he has had injuries off and on and pitched through them and well stunk. I am jealous of lester, not of beckett.
Ehh. Everyone has good months and bad months. He must have been pretty great during the good months if pitching through injury got him to a sub-3 ERA in 190 innings.
I’d take that season again. I’d take 4 out of his last 5 seasons.
I’m not too worried about Beckett. Most teams who aren’t Philadelphia would love him at the front of the rotation.
Even last year he was a 3.57 fip and a sub 5 war for the second straight season. You might be happyw ith that at the top but I am not.
Aren’t very many teams that get a 3.57 FIP out of their second starter. I’m pretty happy with that, yes.
Also his k rate is dipping, hes getting older and not staying in shape with an injury history that is not good.
FIP already takes K rate into account. It’s slipping only a bit, and that from a very high level.
You can do this with any team. What fun!
The Yankees have a fat pitcher who’s thrown way too many innings the last few years, a young guy who can’t strike anyone out, an over-the-hill soft-tosser, a converted reliever who pitched 75 innings last year (look at that!), and A.J. Burnett.
See how I can focus on the negative to the exclusion of the positive too!
ROFL do it with the rays.
BTW your assessment of the yankees is laughable, they have holes but not as much as the sox.
Do you even watch baseball?
Wait I thought this was crickettraderumors….
Are you kidding me……CC, Nova, ?, ?, ?. Thats three right there add Jeter, and A-Rod and you got a solid amount of questions. Rays……Desmond Jennings (Pitchers now adjusted to him?????), 1B?, catcher???, DH?????, Most of the entire bullpen??????? Should I keep going I could that for any team.
You forgot hughes who is also coming off injury after a good year before like clay. Garcia/Colon/Burnout for the last 2. Yes a bargain shop team has holes at places that are in abundance on the FA market oh no!!!!!! They dont have holes where replacements cost an arm and a leg. They are fine.
Yea you could do it for a lot of teams, but teams with 170mm to spend shouldnt have that many holes.
The point is that all high-payroll teams have holes. You can’t fill all the team’s needs with free agency. So no, teams with $170MM shouldn’t be in some way embarrassed to not have 25 all-stars.
Its not about having 25 all stars, its about not having a rotation with any depth.
Wait a minute, did you just argue that the Yankees’ holes aren’t really holes because they can be filled easily?
They have the exact same holes as the Red Sox! Does not compute.
Apparently he dislikes the Red Sox more than the Yankees, so the Red Sox situation is naturally worse.
Actually I dislike the Yankees more.
Then you just plain don’t know what you’re talking about. the Red Sox have Lester, Beckett, Bochholz, ?, Bard; the Yankees have Sabathia, ??, Nova, Burnett, Garcia.
Having an ace, no #2, and three #5 pitchers isn’t more of a sure thing than what the Red Sox have.
They have better pitchers and just need to work out which ones that all pitched well last year will start. Different.
They do? News to me and probably most Yankee fans.
(Seriously, even the most delusional of Yankees fans on this site would admit that the Yankees’ rotation is extremely questionable after Sabathia)
Head “isn’t going to win any beauty contests”?
Well, Beane isn’t selling jeans out there, Mr. Callis.
As a Sox fan, all of those starters sound good to me. Except Saunders, although even he’d be fine if the price was really low.
I love (LOVE!) the fact that apparently the big tipping point that landed the Sox Bailey rather than the Rangers was Josh Reddick. JOSH REDDICK! I mean the guy lit it up for a couple months then spiraled down steadily
the red sox spiraled down rapidly! he was a rookie
he started his spiral around june/july; the Red Sox rapidly plummented starting Sept. 1
he started his spiral around june/july; the Red Sox rapidly plummented starting Sept. 1
All the message board trolls are terrified of Bard becoming as good of a starter as he has been as a reliever. Virtually no one is giving him a chance to even be as good as a replacement player.
You had better hope his arm falls off, because if he is good and the rest of the rotation stays healthy, that’s a scary front 4 to go with an awesome offense. Keep the counterpoints coming, but the truth is, no one knows how this experiment will work out.
Next year if he even is good he will be babied and be on an innings count, so no I am not scared of him because in the game he might do good but he will be out by the 6th-7th and I can get into that questionable swiss cheese pen.
The pen should be solid. Your posts are selling everyone short on the Red Sox. Your bias is making you look like a fool.
lol last year I was scared to death of the red sox as a tigers fan! This year I am not, sorry not biased to always go after the red sox. Pen is not nearly as strong and the rotation is worse.
Keep on kidding yourself. The rotation is stronger simply by the subtraction of John Lackey and his historically bad season. There’s no reason to think that the front three won’t be healthy and solid and we won’t miss Dice-K either. The Sox will pick up a respectable #4 in January and Bard/Aceves will fill #5. The pen has several question marks, I’ll give you that, but on paper, it looks to be above average.
No reason? Clay was injured last year and is coming off back surgery and becket has an injury history. Sorry I think that is reason to be skeptical.
Buc had a bone bruise and was advised to rest it. He never got back surgery.
Really? thought he did. Oh well I am not always right. That worries me more though, makes me wonder if it will come back.
Pretty sure Leonard is actually wrong. They originally thought it was a bone bruise, but they found out it was essentially a bone spur, which they removed, and he was actually ready to come back for the last couple weeks or so of last season, but they just had him shut it down at that point.
Really? thought he did. Oh well I am not always right. That worries me more though, makes me wonder if it will come back.
Buc had a bone bruise and was advised to rest it. He never got back surgery.
More like two weeks, really. Check it out.
I wasn’t aware that Sweeney even had raw power. He’s a little old to call a player with potential power.
I said this last year and its probably more true this year. Have a team era of 4.50 or below and this team’s offense will win you over 100 games. It’s not hard to pitch for the Sox throw 7 and give up 4 and you probably win 14-15 games every season.
I would suggest the Rangers as a trading partner for the Red Sox, since they will likely have a starter to trade, but they would have to wait til Darvish signs and then the Red Sox don’t have anything to trade the Rangers since the Rangers would have wanted Head to play first base…
The rangers have their own rotation to worry about
Head is still at least 2-3 years away from the big leagues.
Yea I think the Rangers are fine on offense and with feliz a question mark and oganda a question mark past july I would hold on to the starter depth, too many sps is never a problem!
If it’s a 1b for next year they want they would go after Lars and not Head.
For all these worthless comments against the Red Sox you are deceiving yourself if you think they won’t make the playoffs. They have a top offense, a rotation that will post solid numbers next year and a solid bullpen. Red Sox are title contenders.
Did you copy and paste that from December 2010?
Wow NY are we having a moment haha……why cant we be friends (Repeat).
Wow NY are we having a moment haha……why cant we be friends (Repeat).
Holy Cow, eat more chicken!
This comment is efficient because you could use it at this time last year.
I love the arguments here, subtracting papelbon/bard from a great bullpen and replacing them with injury prone bailey will get you back to 90+ wins again? Having an aging ortiz and trading away your best utility guy and ellsbury’s friend on the team in lowrie will help you? Having Bard come out of the bullpen to pitch in the rotation will be flawless? Yea it has worked before but as has been shown by Joba its hardly a science. Relying on clay to bounce back from back surgery makes you confident? Jeez what type of spin can you put to these to make this good for the Red Sox? Sorry if you think I am biased, I just look at that and dont see a team that scares me like last years team did. Too many question marks and too much needs to fall into place. Yea Crawford wont repeat but do you think Elsbury will? He will probably do good still but last year was truly amazing and a drop off isnt out of the question.
The AL east is only getting better, the Rays have a better staff and can put up runs against whatever AA pitcher will be pitching for the Red sox in july. The Blue Jays arent done and will have a full season of rasmsus and lawrie. Also dont count out the AL West team to get the wild card.
Seriously, go troll somewhere else.
I love when people cant refute an argument they scream troll. Classic. Okay go cuddle with Peter Gammons about how great the Red Sox will be with all these question marks. Maybe you should double your payroll.
I’ve been refuting your “argument” all day, but when you start saying that every single thing is going to go wrong for the Red Sox, and every single thing is going to go right for everyone else in the division you’re not worth arguing with anymore, you’re just trolling. You also say in your little rant there that the Jays aren’t done yet while simultaneously refusing to acknowledge the fact that the Red Sox aren’t either – trolling.
Im not saying every single thing will go right for everyone else or that every single thing will go wrong for the Red Sox. Stuff could be a split, but they need just about everythign to go right to compete and that is not happening. The Red Sox arent done but have stated that they dont want to go over the cap, whereas the blue jays say they would spend if the opportunity presented itself and have been linked to fielder for instance and have a better package for garza.
Nothing is absolute, but on paper I would take the yanks/jays/rays over the Sox, and heck they might not even get the WC, the west might!
You name every single thing that could possibly go wrong for the Red Sox while skimming over (or outright ignoring) all of the likely improvements, while simultaneously naming every possible improvement for those other teams while completely ignoring all of their likely downgrades and things that could go wrong.
If you want to sound reasonable, and you’re going to name all of the possible problems for the Sox, you do it for the other teams too; if you’re going to name all the things that could go right for those other teams, you do it for the Sox too. Otherwise your argument is biased against the Sox and you don’t get taken seriously.
Ech double post kinda?
So its a thread about the Sox but I should go into great detail about the other teams too? I only brought them up to show that the Red Sox arent in a good position in their own division.
Okay let me start. Joey bats could trip over a rock and break his leg, rasmsus could start hitting with a noodle, lawrie decides to go to africa to be a minister, longoria decides to hold out for more money and him,price,shields, and upton all flee to play in cuba.
You said name all the things that could go wrong. I figured you know the obvious things so Iw ill point out the nonobvious.
Point is I dont see ANY improvements from the sox. Losing bench depth for a bullpen that wasnt as good as last years isnt an improvement in my book.
You should go into as much detail if you’re going to make the case that the Sox are going to be worse than them because of these things, and you should also hold them to the same standard – if the Rays and Jays still have time to improve so do the Sox – If the Sox are going to suck next year based off of their current rosters, so are the Rays, Jays, and Yanks. It’s that simple.
If the season starts right now the Sox have questions in the back of the rotation; the Rays have no one to play 1B, no DH and no bullpen; the Jays have meh pitching and a pretty good offense but no one who can get on base with any regularity. They all have holes right now, and they all have two months to fill them with plenty of options still available for them.
Yea there is no way friedman goes and bargain shops a bullpen, 1b, and dh. He has no experience with that. Ever.
Ugh the sox are not going to suck, but they will not be one of the top 2 teams in the deepest division in baseball. 90 wins is not sucking.
Again, you’re assuming things work out for the Rays and not for the Sox. Chances are pretty slim that they piece together a bunch of nobodies and have everything go perfectly for them again.
And the Sox seriously underperformed to reach that 90 games last year; they were expected to be the best team in baseball going into last year, but things fell apart, so all they really needed to do was keep their team the same and they would compete for the division this year.
Yes I am assuming it is easier to get a 1b/dh than 2 SPs and a young pitcher to come back from back surgery. Silly me.
No, silly you because you keep stating things that simply aren’t the way you say they are.
The Sox need ONE starting pitcher, and Buchholz is already back from his surgery.
Hes not back until he can prove he can pitch like he used to in a game. They need two sp, right now they have bard to try and a question mark.
Or you could simply acknowledge the eight million things that others have provided that could go even not perfectly right, such as:
The Rays could maybe not manage to build an elite bullpen from scraps again.
Maybe their annual act of building an offense from spare parts and reclamation projects won’t pan out as it didn’t in 2009 and, honestly to a lesser extent 2011, the 2011 Rays were not a “great” team (Great pitching, lousy offense), people forget, but not only did the Sox have to collapse for the Rays to make it, the Angels did too. The Angels were dangerously close to coming out of nowhere too. Frankly, I’m much more frightened of the Rangers or Angels making a run for the WC spot than I am of the Rays.
Maybe Lawrie and Rasmus don’t account for the extra ten or so wins it would take for the Jays to be competitive. I can’t even believe I’m dignifying that one with a response, but I was already typing.
Rays bullpen wasnt elite, it was just good enough. With as many closers on the market you tell me that they wont get someone who can be quality?
Longoria had a badyear and they have a full year of jennings who from hsi small sample size proved that he could be the next Crawford. Yea the Rays could collapse, as could any team, but I think the Red Sox have a higher chance of just collapsing due to their question marks.
Longoria played 133 games instead of the 150 he’s played the last couple years, but he played pretty much to his career averages when he was on the field, so all they’re really going to gain from him next year is about 15 more games; not really better production.
”
Stuff could be a split, but they need just about everythign to go right to compete and that is not happening.”
In order to NOT compete, not only does everything have to go wrong for them, everything has to go right for everyone else involved. That essentially boils down to “saying every single thing will go right for everyone else or that every single thing will go wrong for the Red Sox.”
trollololol
Actually it really really doesnt. Sox are a 90 win team with no real improvements this offseason. Rays/Jays improved. Oh snap….
You are easily winning the crown for most infuriatingly clueless member of this forum. I’m done arguing with a brick wall and I suggest MaineSox give up, we’ve obviously been appropriately brow-beaten by your overwhelming ineptitude.
Lol okay, no improvements means over 90 wins and improvements means over 90 wins is unlikely. Anything can happen, but on paper the Red Sox are in trouble.
How do you not understand that just because they won 90 last year doesn’t mean that they “are a 90 win team?” Everyone expected them to win several more games last year, and everyone said that they were a disappointment last year because they underperformed.
Well they were a 90 win team and they did not improve. I dont care what people expected, its what they actually did and they won 90 games and havent improved this offseason.
They’ll improve by not underperforming their talent level next year. God you’re dense.
The talent level is what they can produce on the field, and as evident last year they failed. I fail to see why it would be different, its like you guys think just because you splurged you are entitled.
I’m not seeing the issue. Remember that this team’s 2011 hitting and pitching stats translated to 100 wins, and that they were the worst team in MLB at translating those stats into wins, which is something that has almost no predictive power, especially after changing managers. The likelihood of that reoccurring is 1 in 250, so regression to the mean would dictate the Red Sox GAIN wins by default. If we’re conservative and say they were a 94 win team last year, they’ve still GAINED WAR over last year’s output. Right now, without a #5 starter, and a warm-bodied Lackey in the rotation. It’s impossible to see Bard being WORSE than Lackey and even a reclaimation project like Francis or Maholm being worse than the sub-replacement level value they got out of their rotating #5 spot in the rotation. Even pessimistic projections probably have this team at 96-98 wins. There’s simply no statistical case for this team being poor unless we see another anamoly and the team simultaneously explodes.
AT no point last year should anyone predicted 100 wins for the sox.
Here is what you are expecting:
Repeat seasons by ortiz/ells
Crawford improvement
Bailey=Papelbon
Mel=Bard
Bard=CJ Wilson
Rays get worse with better players
Blue Jays dont improve with better players
5th starter owns face.
Don’t put words in my mouth
I never said Ellsbury would repeat (I’m certain that he wont)
I said you had no reason to expect Ortiz to fall apart because you don’t
Bailey isn’t as good as Papelbon but closers are overrated and a slight downgrade isn’t going to hurt the team demonstrably
I also never said Bard was going to be as good as Wilson, I don’t think he will, but he doesn’t need to be for the pitching staff to be a good one
The Rays don’t have a real bullpen or offense, and while their starting pitching will likely improve, their offense looks worse (unless they make moves to improve it between now and opening day)
And who have the Jays added to get better this offseason? Mathis? Valbuena? A full season from Lawrie will help, but other than that I don’t see how they are any better next year.
I dont think Ortiz will fall apart, but I also dont think he will repeat.
Mel does not equal bard, the bullpen will be hurting unless they sign someone.
The rays needs 1b,dh, and rp. All of which are available in surplus on the FA market. Easy fix, bargain shoppers wait.
They added a closer and are getting a full year of rasmus and lawrie which will really help their offense.
Obviously you have more trust in Beckett not screwing up again and Clay rehabbing flawless than I do. The thing is where is the depth on this team? When one guy goes down who can step up? Anyone?
The Rays need 1B, DH, and RP and you say ‘hey, no problem, they can just add those players, no biggie;’ the Sox need a starting pitcher and could use a better RF and it’s the end of the world and they’ll be lucky to get 4th place? Again, you’ve got two sets of standards: one set for the Sox, and one set for everyone else in the league.
I do have trust in Beckett, since ’09 (which includes his terribly horrible ’10) he has been the 3rd most valuable pitcher in the AL East (behind CC and Lester), and since ’07 he’s been one of the top ten most valuable starters in baseball.
I also have trust in Buchholz because his “injury” was a bone spur and he is already back to full health.
I know Melancon isn’t as good as Bard, but a back of the bullpen consisting of Melancon and Bailey is still better than a lot of teams have.
The sox need bard to come through, clay to stay healthy, becket to stay healthy, and another starter. No its called supply/demand. How many teams are looking for a DH? 1b? Also theres a ton of RP on the market for the Bargain shoppers. More hitters on the market than teams that need them. To say 2 sp spots to fill is equal to finding a dh/1b is just ridiculous.
Oswalt, Kuroda, Jackson, Maholm, Saunders, Garza, Floyd all being available makes it pretty easy to find as many starters as a team could need right now. And they don’t need two starting pitchers, they only need one; Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, Oswalt, Bard for example, would be a better starting 5 than 90% of teams in baseball, and having Aceves, Doubront, Wilson, Miller, Bowden (and maybe Wake), along with possibilities in Haeger, Tazawa, Pimentel, and Balcom-Miller gives them plenty of depth.
If the Sox didnt already say they didnt want to go over the tax then I would give them a chance of signing one of those starters.
They have said that they are going to go over the tax this year. They are going to. One more time, they are.
They had hoped to stay under, but after Ortiz accepted arbitration they came out and said that they would be going over the luxury tax this year.
We will see if its enough to go out and get one of the starters you named, I highly doubt it though especially with the yankees/jays probably bidding for services as well.
And now you’re guessing about how much they’ll be willing to spend. I’m done until you have something more than bias and assumptions to argue with.
Yea, silly me thinking decreasing their talent and depth will make them worse.
They have been reluctant to go over the tax, thats what I am basing my assumption off of. I love how Red Sox fans assume that they are entitled to things and theres nothing else thats possible. I miss the fans pre 04. They were great.
*there’s
ROFL touche!
The Sox had the best pitching on paper last year, and look what happened. There is one way to analyze pitching in that way. You need six good starters and then you go from there. None of the Sox pitchers have the track record of pitchers like CC, Halladay, or even Shields.
The Red Sox have two pitchers with a better track record than Shields actually. This time of year you can only go on what the team looks like on paper, and on paper you could make a pretty easy case for the Red Sox being the best team in the division. Expecting injuries or ineffectiveness for the Sox players works exactly the same as expecting injuries or ineffectiveness for Yankees players or Rays player or anyone else’s players. If you temper expectations for Sox players because they might get injured or be ineffective you temper expectations for everyone else’s players for the same reason.
“Kalish may be ready for game action by May or June, but he doesn’t have a clear timetable.”
Paaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaniiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiic tiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiime.
I’m going to pop some popcorn and stop by the Boston Globe boards, real quick. There is no way half of the Boston media doesn’t collectively mess itself over this one.
Kalish may not be the answer, he only hit .260 in a small sample.
He only had a league average batting average over a ~50 game sample as a 22 year old? Oh no, he’s doomed! …
“small sample”
His minors numbers are solid. He hit for good average, got on base and had some good power. He’s a good fit for a corner outfield spot and he can play CF in a pinch. He lost a year of his development last year, but he’s still only 23 (Will turn 24 just before the season). If he rebounds from offseason surgery, he’s got better upside than Reddick.