Once again, the A's have traded away one of their top starters in exchange for a package of prospects. Two weeks after shipping Trevor Cahill to Arizona, Oakland sent Gio Gonzalez and pitcher Robert Gilliam to the Nationals for right-handers A.J. Cole and Brad Peacock, left-hander Tom Milone, and catcher Derek Norris.
Billy Beane & Co. parted ways with Cahill and Gonzalez with an eye on building a team that can compete in a brand new stadium in a few years. Most seem to agree that the A's got a considerable haul by landing three high-level pitching prospects with Cole having the highest ceiling of the trio.
The Nationals were reluctant to part with both Peacock and Milone in the swap but ultimately decided that Gonzalez was worth the price. The bidding for the left-hander was understandably high as the Red Sox, Rangers, Marlins, Yankees, Blue Jays, Tigers, and Mariners were all linked to the 26-year-old this winter.
While the benefits of the deal are clear for both sides, who do you feel got the better end of the swap?
Ask the question again at the end of the 2014 or 2015 season…since you’re dealing with prospects, that’s about when we’ll be able to evaluate the trade.
no, i cant wait til 2015…i might be dead by then! ask it now!
You’ve been dead since 1991 you big dummy!
Wow…it was 20 years ago? Doesn’t seem like it. Foxx, Pryor, Carlin and Patrice O’Neal……yet….Bod Saget lives on.
Yeah…while it’s interesting to contemplate, it’s a lot like asking which team won their division before spring training even starts.
Yeah, but the fun is in speculating.
Not the way it works. You can’t evaluate business decisions in hindsight.
I don’t think you’ll have to wait anywhere near that long for the Nats to regret this trade. I say try back in 2013 and possibly as soon as the second half of next year. I still can’t believe the Nats gave up two B+, a B and a B- prospects with 3 of them in the upper minors.
If some of you thought the Reds overpaid for Latos, you must be going crazy with this trade.
I would rather have one proven starter then four “prospects”. You can look back at a couple of “can’t” miss prospects, Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes, for example. Yankee fans, and apparently the Yankees front office, turned down several trades that would have helped them only to end up with a couple of middling pitchers. The list of can’t miss and off limit “prospects” that fizzled out or were absolutely average is huge. Hope the best for the prospects that the Nats sent out west, however I would rather at this point in the teams development have a known quantity.
Where do you think proven starters come from? None of them were ever prospects of course.
Very brilliant remark. Most successful players were prospects. Most prospects never become successful players.
Hindsight will tell who won this trade in reality, but the chances are highly in Oakland’s favor, considering even a proven starter is still a risk and the chances just 1 of the 3 top prospects given up becomes what he’s touted to be. You can also factor in $ cost too.
You know the A’s actually lost the Haren deal, right?
Not really. In terms of what the A’s actually got for Haren, it was awesome. CarGon and Anderson make that deal pretty even.
In terms of Beane making his worst move ever and trading for Matt Holliday, that was failtastic and a huge loss. But that doesn’t change what happened with the Haren deal.
You are right in terms of WAR is pretty even, since 2008:
Haren 23.4
Robertson: -0.1
23.3
Anderson 7.5
Cargo: 13.8
Carter: -1.3
Eveland: 3.5
Smith: 1.4
Cunningham: 0.7
25.6
But was this deal necessary? In retrospect, no. To be honest, as an A’s fan I’d rather we kept Haren and gotten more for him as he got better, like the Rangers getting that absurd package for 2 years of Teixeira. I get the feeling we might be saying the same about Gio.
Why are you not factoring in that Haren would have been gone after the 2010 season, if the A’s had kept him? We both know there’s no way they could have afforded to re-sign him once he hit the open market. And we both know that he, alone, couldn’t have carried the A’s to the playoffs in 2008, 2009 or 2010. Trading him when he had 3 years of team control left was absolutely the right thing do. The longer they would have waited, the lesser the package they would have received.
And if the only way you’re willing to evaluate that trade is through hindsight, via WAR, then you have to subtract Haren’s 2011 WAR, because he was never under contract with the A’s through that season. And you also have to wait and see how Anderson and Carter perform during the remainder of their stints with the A’s. Carter just turned 25 less than a week ago. He still has time to fulfill his potential. And no one should be surprised if Anderson is as good as ever when he returns from Tommy John surgery.
Also don’t forget that Aaron Cunningham was half (and the main piece) of the package that brought over Kouzmanoff, who produced a 3.0 WAR for the A’s in 2010.
And don’t write off Michael Taylor yet, either – who is essentially what trading Carlos Gonzalez turned into (via Holliday and Wallace).
I don’t believe that any trade should be evaluated strictly through hindsight. But if you’re stuck in that mindset, and want to measure everything correctly via WAR, then you’re gonna have to wait a lot longer, and consider other variables of that trade before you’re ever gonna know who truly got the best end of the deal in terms of production.
Don’t forget cost. Haren has earned over 32 million in salary since 08, while the others have combined to earn about 6 million.
That’s a really impressive haul considering none of the players Oakland received have played more than 2 full seasons or hit their prime yet, while Haren is leaving his.
You are the 29%. You can’t get all your players from trades and free agents, you have to get some players from the farm system.
The Nationals have developed a very good farm system with good scouting and a financial commitment to build through the draft. Trades and free agent signings though are certainly a good compliment to building from within.
Johan Santana…..that was the guy we missed out on. Yes, prospects are absolutely risky. But holding on to guys like Bernie Williams, Andy Petite, Derek Jeter, Mo Rivera, Robbie Cano, Brett Gardner, etc are examples of when it pays off. You simply can’t review all the semi-failures/complete flops without looking at the examples of when it works in your favor.
Bottom line is, prospects serve a purpose. Some we keep, some we trade, some succeed here or elsewhere and some don’t. It’s all a matter of figuring out how each one best suites your teams purposes.
An excellent post even if it is from a Yankee’s fan.
Oh come on, no one has ever tried to trade for Jeter. He was a Yankee for life as soon as he first stepped on the field, I’m not even a Yankees fan at all and I knew that, everyone did.
Whats funny is that if you look at the package gotten for Johan, all those “top prospects” were massive failures, just as was the prospect packages for Tim Hudson, Mark McGwire etc etc. Too often the team who gets the known quantity wins. Sure the Mulder and Teixeira deals turned out in terms of the prospects, but it really shows that untested players shouldnt be seen as absolutes. Far too many posters throw around the “untouchable” tag when the reality is an absurdly tiny amount of prospects deserve that. Harper & Trout for sure, but anyone else? Get off your high horse, all-star or everyday players are better than any prospect.
You do realize the Mets would have been much better off without ever trading for Johan? So far the Mets are about 30 million in the hole on Johan and still owe him another 50 million.
logical discussion as always. except try and tell that to all the Frank Costanzas: “Jay freakin’ Buhner?!”
Funny how you left out that other guy, Ian Kennedy.
it’s ironic (and I hope it shuts up my fellow Yankee fans) that IPK might end up being the best pitcher of the three that were so touted.
as a yankee fan im glad he figured it out
I don’t get anyone who doesn’t realize the strategy the Yankees used in the early to mid 90’s and the strategy they didn’t use from 2001-2006 and then the strategy used present day and not see the obvious writing on the wall.
Spending money on some pieces available, developing prospects is key.
Assuming a 25 year old Hughes is a bust is a bit of a reach…
Gio isn’t an Ace, so clearly the As.
Both teams likely win because of the objective that they sought. The A’s get more talent for their hopeful new stadium in a few years. The Nationals got more legit in the present to compete in 2012. The only way this becomes a wash is if Gonzalez and some of the prospects have major injury issues.
Stop making sense.
Are you sure Gonzalez outperforms Milone and Peacock in 2012? I’m not.
No, I’m not sure. But I think both teams met their objectives.
A’s won. But if Gio gets his walks under control then I’ll call it even.
Even if the A’s get less than 100 IP from those 3 pitchers? Where are all these people getting their crystal balls from?
And if Gio pitches less than 100 innings? Point is I like the trade from the A’s perspective
in terms of the results the nats will win. a’s got a ton of good players, but billy beane will either trade them or let them hit FA before it means anything. nats will be in the playoffs within the next few years, the a’s will be at the bottom of the al west with a bunch of new AAA players on the field.
It’s pretty clear that most people overvalue prospects in trades. Milone is not a major league caliber starter, not with only two real pitches, one of which is a 87 MPH fastball. A.J. Cole is 19. Way too far away to be called a certain thing. Good stuff, but a lot can go wrong for him in the next few years, and that often happens with prospects. Derek Norris needs to prove he can hit. Hitting 210 in AAA is bad enough, but you can expect that to go down against more experienced pitchers who have better stuff. He’s still a long way away from being major league ready. Peacock also has only two pitches and he has awful mechanics. He’ll end up being a reliever, which is pretty worthless in a rebuilding trade, especially since he’s still a minor leaguer. The Nats put themselves in a position to win in the next year or so, and actually got a sure thing. Gonzalez has a very solid SIERA, tERA, and xFIP, so his stuff is legit. In three years, it’s very possible that the only player with a major league career will be Gio Gonzalez.
I can’t wait to see Milone continue to silence the haters
mo rivera only has one pitch and he’s been around for an awfully long time. oakland had to do what it had to do to keep up
Option C: Every other team that didn’t get Gio
A’s by a long shot. I really like A.J Cole’s upside as a power-righty. I wish the Jays nabbed him in 2010. Great K and BB rates (which is how I mostly judge pitchers in the low minors). They also get a solid lefty in Milone, highly touted catcher Norris and another solid prospect in Peacock.
Beane made a great steal here as he needs more highly touted pitching prospects to pitch in their pitcher friendly park.
If the Nats want to get value back for what they lost, they better hope Gio lowers the walk rate as there’s more long balls being hit out of Nationals Park than O.co Coliseum. Plus, he faces an arguably tougher division this year than what he had to face last year.
I’m going to have to say the A’s.
If I didn’t hate Gio, I would say both teams as of now. But those walks are just bad, and he cannot pitch against good teams. Of course, this opinion can change depending on the next few years. Its unfair to judge any trade that has to do with prospects within a week, it takes time.
Why are you so focussed on walks? Did you know he had this line last year:
6.0 IP 2 H 0 ER 6 BB 6 K
How is that a bad start? He gave up 0 runs over 6+. Walks arent that huge a deal because they dont hurt his game. End of story.
The walks will only become a real issue if his K rate start to decline. He’s keeping lots of batter of base himself right now.
That means he had a .167 BABIP and 0.0 HR/FB ratio, along with a 100% LOB. Not one of those numbers is remotely close to sustainable. He was incredibly lucky that day.
Walk issues aren’t an issue. What league are you watching? Great teams feast on pitchers that walk everyone and knock them out of games by the third inning, if they last that long. Doesn’t anyone ever look at the competition they are facing? You walk 6 batters in 6 innings against the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, etc and you are walking a tightrope that one hit doesn’t explode in your face. That is why they are successful and win many games. Gio in the AL feasted on teams with a .210 batting average, with hitters swinging at everything. Against the best teams, he sucked plain and simple.
As with all good trades, there wasn’t a loser here. I thought Beane was going to get fleeced again, but he was able to walk away with Cole. Every player Oakland got fits their scheme and can help them, but IMO, only Cole will really be missed by the Nats. Well worth a young number 3, who can pitch like a number one on any given day.
I say Nats won the trade and I’m an oakland diehard…gio is a legit #2 on the cusp of being a #1 in my eyes…his walks are being overblown..people that actually watch his starts are not worried bout the walks..he scatters them and no longer has emotional blowups like he used to two years ago…gio is also an amazingly humble and likable human being that will be a fan favorite…Nats win big here for adding the complete package for at least the next 4 years.
Right now, I love this trade for the A’s, and understand it for the Nats.
Gio’s controlled through 2015. The Nats will definitely be contending through most of those years; not necessarily in 2012, but definitely in 2013-15. They have a deep farm system. This trade makes sense.
Considering the stadium situation and the Angels/Rangers, the A’s aren’t going anywhere until 2014 at the earliest, or whenever they’ve got a new stadium. In other words, the A’s totally needed to tear down the team, and they’re doing it pretty well. That’s how the Royals got their farm system, and how the Rays (and Rangers—how did they get Teixeira) got good.
However, Edwin Jackson is arguably the same, if not better, pitcher. If Edwin Jackson gets a lower than expected deal (I’ll say anything less than 50MM total or a 13MM AAV), then I’m really inclined to instantly give this to the A’s.
It makes more sense to give up money than prospects, especially when you’re in the Nats’ market (and have insta-draws Strasburg and Harper in the wings).
Definitely agree, no idea why contending teams made trades when Jackson and Oswalt are out there, both those guys aren’t going to cost prospects and are going to give you similar if not better results to guys like Cahill and Gio.
I really am starting to think think Jackson ends up signing a 1 year deal with someone.
Considering that Latos, Cahill, and Gio all got traded before Jackson signed, Jackson isn’t really drawing market interest. Older pitchers like Kuroda/Oswalt are drawing more interest. I would love for it to be the A’s. 1 year + player option, high dollar, prove yourself type deal in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball. Go put up inflated numbers, get traded to a contender at the deadline, and then set up for a bigger deal next offseason. A team like the Mariners or the Padres would also make sense.
I could also see Boras advising EJax to do something daring like sign a Soriano type deal with the Yanks. A 1 year deal with 2 player options. Go prove yourself in the worse circumstances for a pitcher. If he succeeds then he can enter the market having proven he can pitch anywhere. If he struggles then he choose the player option and makes the same money.
2012: $13 mil
2013: $13 mil option
2014: $13 mil option
True, but I really question Oswalt’s ability to pitch an entire season with a tricky back issue. His back concerns aren’t going to go away. Degenerative discs are permanent.
Both teams.
Second poll like this within a week that lacks a correct answer.
Glad you saw this too.
Nats overpaid. Trip to the NL should help gio though.
Does it matter who won or lost?
The Nationals wanted him and they got him!
Nationals Won! 2 Thumbs Up! End of Story!
I doubt the Nats will win anything for quite a while.
they have the making of a scary team coming up very very soon. If werth rebounds and strasburg is healthy along with the continued production from moorse, and ryan add to that the possibility of Harper this is going to be a very good team, even better if they add fielder…a 3-4-5-6 of Zim-fielder-bryce-werth(only have bryce 5th because of his age, once he is comfortable he is instantly their #3) thats a good line up to go along with good pitching…and with the phillies getting older and older, the mets being bad and the braves being in their own way( anyone else think the marlins are nothing special besides me) the nats could be the top team very soon
I’m just happy the tigers didn’t lay down turner to get him
too early to tell…as of right now the Nats won because not one of those prospects were slated to start the year with the big league club. They traded 4 minor leaguers for a young good pitcher, not great but not bad either. BUT and its a big but….if just two of those prospects pan out to be what they should be, the A’s win without a doubt. They get a good power hitting catcher(more rare than a crafty lefty) and 2 top ten pitching prospects….This is a win now for the nats and a possible win later for the A’s
The A’s are moving into a new park and need to restructure their roster. These guys will either play a role by playing for the A’s or getting oved. A’s got the most value which is crucial for the position they’re in.
well actually peacock and milone are major league ready and 1 or both would have started the year in the nats rotation which means they sure as hell can crack oaklands
Obviously at this point both sides won. Washington didn’t need these prospects for next years team (Norris is had a very down year so Nats sold high) Milone is just like Lannan and can two similar pitchers who suceed through luck and the collective willing of their fans really be depened on within the same rotation, prob not. Also Oakland didn’t need Gio, they weren’t competing so why spend the extra couple million if you don’t have to.
AJ Cole though will be huge though, I can’t underwhelm anyone about Cole. Just watch him pitch, he’s very good and he can spin a breaking ball, not very well so far, but once he gets more practice that slurvey curve will shape up and bend in a more then show-me-pitch fashion. With his change and strong fastball and a developing curve he should be atop of the A’s rotation when he makes the show in a couple more years.
Washington has a deep farm and since it chose a bunch of college guys last couple drafts Cole becomes a luxury.
Great trade by both teams. Washington just goes and shows everyone that it made more then good sense to spend 2 mil on Cole in the fourth round, because if your willing to trade future prospective value all your really losing is your initial investment. The Nationals are getting solid value now from Gio and will benefit from his skills this year. The prospective value inherent in these prospects may never actualize for the nats and these guys may end up never having played for washington so saying that the Nationals actually gave up a lot is a stretch since what they gain is actual and real, is Gio a true #1 or 2? who cares! WAR gets overblow when you project minorleague numbers to the majors, so while these prospects are very good, they just may not translate their skills to the majors.
Gio will pitch next year in washington, throw 200 innings and will help them win while Milone and Peacock may pitch 150 innings in the majors next year between them both.
This is a rather foolish thing to ask, considering the poll didn’t have an “win-win” option; also considering the fact that the A’s and the Nats are focusing on different faucets. The Nats are obviously tooling up to make a run for the playoffs this year. The A’s aren’t necessarily doing the same.
the better question is what does trading Gio Gonzalez do for the A’s regardless of the prospects? – just another sign that they are rebuilding again and an even better signal that the A’s should be in a different city.
It’s hard to say who won the trade. I think Washington overpaid, I think Cole can be a lot better than Gonzalez and Norris is going to be very good also, and Peacock and Malone are good, mid-to-backend pieces which should be ready to start in Oakland’s rotation.
I would never, ever have given up even half of that haul for Gonzalez, but the Nationals capitalized on the opportunity they had to contend, and if they end up winning the World Series fans in Washington aren’t going to bemoan about “what could have been”.
Norris was blocked by Flores (hope he gets back to his 2009 form) and Ramos. He’s going to be good, but people have been expecting him to be traded for a while now just because the Nats have 2 ML capable catchers already.
Losing Cole does suck though. He’s the one prospect I was hoping wouldn’t be in the deal. And it hurts (this year at least) that the Nationals lost 2 pitchers with options who could be called up if someone gets injured.
Why has gio gonzalez, first round pick been traded 4 times this early in his career?
I say the A’s win not because Gio is overrated because he is definitely a solid number two pitcher though you have to be concerned about a large pitch count from a curveball pitcher but because the A’s got two or three kids who could easily produce at the same level. A.J. Cole had a 108/24 K/BB in 89 innings, Tom Milone was 155 to 16 and Brad Peacock is the best of the bunch. Milone and Peacock could be in the big leagues this year so it’s not even like these are single-a what-if kids, I would take that package any day over Gio Gonzalez.
it`s hard to tell or rather we wont know until who get to the major from the players the As got if no player emerge from that group.. but as of now the national got the advantage
Which team just got closer to competing for the division?
won ????
or , lost the least ?!?!?!??!?!?!?!?
organ grinder meets chimp