Cole Hamels turns 28 today and by the time he turns 29 there’s a good chance he’ll have signed a new contract — either with the Phillies or as a free agent. The left-hander is one season away from hitting free agency for the first time in his career, so an extension with the Phillies is possible. Hamels has said he’d like to stay in Philadelphia and the Phillies have the need and resources to keep him in place.
Hamels was born nine months before Matt Cain and drafted eight spots before the Giants right-hander. Both have distinguished themselves from the competition at the Major League level over the course of the past six seasons, but the question of which pitcher is more effective remains unanswered, as this comparison of their career stats shows.
Cain, the harder thrower, has more innings to his name, more 200 inning seasons and a slight edge in career wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference. Hamels, who has the shinier win-loss record, induces more ground balls and has struck out more hitters per inning while allowing fewer walks.
When MLBTR’s Luke Adams examined a possible extension for Cain two days ago, he pointed out that the going rate for elite arms on long term deals falls in the $20MM per season range. Hamels hasn’t won a Cy Young Award like teammates Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay, so a contract north of $20MM may not be realistic at this point, when only one team — the Phillies — can bid. However, the Phils had the biggest payroll in the National League this past season, so it’s not as though they’ll have to ask Hamels for a hometown discount.
The Giants and Phillies valued Cain and Hamels similarly when they drafted them eight spots apart from one another nearly a decade ago. Even though the two high schoolers have since become some of the game’s best pitchers, their value relative to one another remains similar. A five-year, $100MM contract could work for Hamels and the Phillies, just as it could work for Cain and the Giants.
MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz estimates a 2012 salary of $14MM for Hamels through arbitration. Four free agent seasons at $20MM per year and a $5MM buyout for an option year would bring the value of a possible deal to the $100MM range. It’s probably less than what Hamels, a John Boggs and Associates client, could obtain on the open market if he delivers another strong season in 2012. But it would provide the left-hander with security and the opportunity to hit free agency again at the age of 32 — the same age Lee was when he signed for $120MM last offseason.
If there's one pitcher who's more comparable to Hamels than Cain, it's Jered Weaver, the Angels right-hander who signed a team-friendly five-year $85MM extension during the 2011 season. Baseball-Reference says Hamels and Weaver are each other's top statistical comparables, which means the Phillies can argue Hamels should earn $17.5MM per free agent season, just as Weaver will. However, Hamels has bargaining power since he's closer to free agency than Weaver was last summer and is starting from a higher 2011 salary. Plus, Hamels is a year younger than Weaver and his resume includes 13 excellent postseason starts and a World Series MVP award.
Hamels’ injury history could give the Phillies pause. He struggled with injuries as a minor leaguer and early in his MLB career, spent time on the 15-day DL this August due to left shoulder inflammation and had a hernia repaired and loose bodies removed from his pitching elbow after the season. To his credit, he has averaged 31 starts and 206 innings since 2007, his first full season in the Phillies' rotation.
While the Phillies might balk at the possibility of a rotation that includes three $20MM pitchers, GM Ruben Amaro Jr. spent upwards of $65MM on Philadelphia’s rotation this past season, proving his willingness to commit to starters. The club won 102 games behind a historically good pitching staff in 2011, so it won’t be a surprise if ownership is willing to spend on future rotations.
Now that the Phillies have addressed most of their offseason needs, the front office can focus on the possibility of an extension for Hamels over the course of the next few months. Don’t be surprised if five years and $100MM works for both sides. If not, Hamels will enter the 2012 season with the chance to become the most coveted pitcher of the 2012-13 offseason.
Photo courtesy Icon SMI.
WisBrave
He’ll look good in Yankee pin stripes.
BLEACHER_CREATURD
I concur. If it were get darvish, or sign Hamels I’m glad they put their eggs in the Hamels basket. Even if they don’t get him… They should be able to get a decent pitcher next FA season either way.
melonis_rex
You fail at being an imposter.
The Rangers won the bidding for Darvish. ONLY the Rangers can sign him this season. He’s either Rangers or Japan.
All Day Réy
Oh god!
WisBrave
Although he’ll need a hair cut first.
Phillies_Aces35
$120 million bucks > long hair (for sane people)
I think he cut it this year though so he should be good.
Phillies_Aces35
Part of me, as a fan of his, thinks that might be good for his career. Get him with an offense that will actually put up runs behind him, not for the middle reliever that comes in right after him.
The Majority of me never wants to even think about it.
The_BiRDS
Trade Hamels mid season for young offense
Phillies_Aces35
The offense is fine, just not when he pitches. Longterm, Hamels is the best option for the Phillies. They have enough trade chips left to get a real left fielder if Mayberry doesn’t pan out.
Guest 5507
philly is one of those teams that in about say 2 years are very close to being wore out, dogged out, nothing left in the tank……it would maybe do some good to get young offense……
Phillies_Aces35
I’ll worry about that when it happens.
There isn’t a trade possibility out there that makes sense for the Phillies. Who’s going to trade a young third baseman or a young left fielder for half a season of Cole Hamels, who will be looking for a Johan Santana/Cliff Lee/CC Sabathia/Roy Halladay type contract.
The history of teams trading aces in contract years, quite frankly, isn’t very good: (Cliff Lee, Johan Santana, CC Sabathia, among others). None of those teams got fair value back.
The Phillies will need pitching in 2 years too.
I think they’ll be fine. This is an organization with one of the best scouting departments in the league. Even if they fall on their faces in two years, they’ll rebound faster than they did in the 1990’s. I’m personally excited about some of these pieces they drafted this year (Larry Greene, Roman Quinn, Tyler Greene, and Mitchell Walding) I think they’ll hit on at least two of them.
Guest 5483
if the oppritunity presented itself at the trade deadline for a complete rip-off of someones farm, would you do it??….assuming the phils were out of contention??{playing devil’s advacate}
Phillies_Aces35
It’d have to be a major league ready piece like a Brett Lawrie (not a serious suggestion Toronto Fans, don’t worry, I know he’s not available). Who could come in and have an impact.
It’d also depend on how Trevor May develops. Is he regressing or is he dominating?
There’s factors that would have to fall into place for me for a deal to make sense. I’d rather just take a shot in the post season with Halladay/Lee/Hamels again.
hscphillyboy
A.) Hamels isn’t going anywhere
B.) You can have the Whirling Darvish
C.) See Irabu, Matsuzaka, et all…………….
Phillies_Aces35
He hasn’t signed a contract so anything’s possible next year. I think it’s a very slim chance he leaves but who knows how these negotiations are going to go, he’s not going to give a discount, he really has no reason too.
dylanp5030
I’m sure he’d look good in any uniform (except Marlins of course), but I can’t see him leaving Philly. Rube will offer a 5/100 with a 25 mill option.
jagteq
Hold on, now. As a Yankee fan, yes I’d love to see him pitching for NYY, but he has to hit free agency first, and there’s a lot in the way of that. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if PHI extended him, he’s so good and such a key piece for them. If he goes to free agency, I expect a CC Sabathia-style full-court-press for him from Cashman’s front office though.
ibleedorangeandblack
wow, a yankees fan who thinks logically. hoenstly, it’s a rare thing (at least from what i’ve seen). i will now put on my hat and tip it to you
MB923
Yes, not all Yankee fans are alike.
East Coast Bias
The contrary.
If anything, there is a lot in the way of him getting an extension. (Boras as agent, money already locked up on Doc/Lee/Howard) I mean, the only significant contract coming off the books is Blanton (8.5m) and that’s not enough to lock up Cole Hamels long term. He can get more than double that with some other team.
I mean, the real question is, what is Philly comfortable spending? Their payroll has jumped from 98m in 2008, to 113m in 2009, to 138m in 2010, to 165m in 2011. That’s a huge leap!
Projected payroll for 2012 is around 175m. Luxury tax cutoff is 178m. Are they willing to give Cole the money and start paying lux tax? I don’t think so. That’s why I think it’s almost a certainty Hamels will be a free agent next year, and will not sign an extension with Philly. They simply can’t afford him.
East Coast Bias
Actually, scratch that. I forgot a few things. Victorino will be coming off the books, don’t know if they re-sign him. Hamels’ salary should also be added. Total money to play with will be over 30m. That’s definitely in their range, given they continue to be a large payroll team flirting with the lux tax.
jagteq
I also meant that more as a “there’s still a year to go and a lot can happen” kind of thing. He may well get extended, he may get injured and be unappealing in free agency, he may fall off a cliff and suck going into his walk year, he may even get traded and extended. Obviously some of those possibilities are less likely than others, but my point was the Yankees shouldn’t be counting on him as a free agent acquisition until he’s actually a free agent.
Muggi
Boras isn’t his agent. John Boggs
FillyPhan
Significant contracts coming off the books? There will also be Contreras and Polanco’s contract expiring thats another $8.5mm so added to Blantons $8.5mm, gives $17mm plus the ~$14mm he is currently making adds up to ~$31mm available to spend on Hamels. Give him the $20mm and you still have $11mm to play with to get a new third baseman and 4-5th starter (If phillies don’t just bring up from minors for league min) I know Kendrick is up from abr next year and Victorino’s contract is also going to be up, so there is more than enough room.
CC 2
The yankees try to buy a championship team. They want all of the biggest players so the seats get filled. Who leads in attendence? PHILLIES!!!!
East Coast Bias
Who else tries to buy a championship team? PHILLIES!!!!
and everyone else who signs free agents
!!!!
Lunchbox45
Marlins!!!1111
FillyPhan
Phillies are not comparable to Yankees when it comes to spending. The Phillies care about the Luxury Tax. If they didn’t then they would be the Yankees. The Phillies are just working with the money that the recent baseball surge in the city has given them. If the Phillies were trying to buy their ring, don’t you think they would have made a bigger splash this offseason. They would have bought another pitcher (Darvish or Gio) . They are currently at $170mm and could have plenty of room to spend if they wanted. You know they have the resources with the highest attendence in the bigs.
Michael Nguyen
This is a idiotic comment. Your saying the Phils are using the baseball money because of the surge in spending well the Yankees are the most profitable team and even though they don’t sell out they sell more merchandise and have their own tv Network (YES Network). Well the Yankees use their baseball money and they have alot more to not care about the luxury tax.
Phillies_Aces35
Yes they are. They both built a core of players that they use their resources to overpay and supplant them with all star talent.
Every team buys their ring, just some spend more money than others.
If the Phillies had the resources the Yankees do (which they don’t and aren’t even close to because they don’t have a TV network and Philly isn’t as big as New York) the Phillies wouldn’t care about the luxury tax either.
The Yankees are starting to care about the luxury tax, it seems.
wayne_gomes
There’s seriously a question about which pitcher is more effective? I appreciate not being overly reductive about Cain’s FIP and incurring the wrath of McCovey Chronicles denizens, but…c’mon now
Amish_willy
I don’t know, Cain’s: .227/.298/.362 line against is quite compable to Hamels mark of: .237/.288/.395. With one pitcher having a much more friendly home park. it’s only 102 PA’s against, and admittadely the Phillies have had some pretty damn good hitter’s, but a .502 SLG% at CitizenBank ballpark for Cain isn’t terribly encouraging. If those two were to switch teams I’d imagine their lines against would look something like:
Cain – .239/.310/.385
Hamels – .225/.276/.362
Over the last four seasons Hamels has averaged 211.5 IP/yr to Cain’s 220. I thought Cain would have a bigger gap prior to checking. So yeah, there is really a question about which pitcher is more effective.
Guest 5506
also: cain and hamels both have been huge in postseasons…point is you can’t go wrong with either
Phillies_Aces35
Cain only did it once though (and all of his starts were at home). Hamels was money 4/5 years and is dominant on the road in those games.
Guest 5452
but my point is that cain is better than most of the rubbish pitching now…..as a nats fan i see hamels often and i hate seeing him…..he’s a fine pitcher…point is cain can help someone in dire need
jb226 2
I’d have to think that if Hamels and/or Cain aren’t signed to extensions, that the Cubs would be in strong on both. It’s a major area of need (and only going to get worse next offseason), and with Zambrano and Dempster coming off the books after this year that’s $32MM to play with from starting pitching alone.
Michael Nguyen
you’ll need at least 40mil to get int he market for both.
jb226 2
As I said, Dempster and Zambrano free up $32MM just for the two of them. I am sure the Cubs would consider upgrading from Dempster and Zambrano to Hamels and Cain for an extra $8MM a year to be an absolute steal. They would definitely be in on both. The bigger question is whether either of them will even reach free agency.
sam_lammert
oh what i would do to get hamels on the cardinals…whoever said too much pitching is never a bad thing didn’t have the contracts of kyle lohse and jake westbrook
East Coast Bias
That may work…
One more season until Lohse and Westbrook are gone, and roughly 20m freed.
sam_lammert
imagine that, waino, hamels, carp, jaime, and hopefully miller, scary
NYBravosFan10
from what I’ve heard about Cole Hamels I wouldn’t be surprised if he wants it to go Hamels then Waino or else no deal.
sam_lammert
wouldn’t bother me in the least bit…then if hamels first i would definitely move jaime to 3rd, gotta keep the lefty righty switch going
emayer
Because of all those whiny comments from Cole about being behind Halladay and Lee… ?
NYBravosFan10
no need to jump down my throat, just voicing my opinion based on what I’ve read
Lunchbox45
made up
dylanp5030
I read that….in a book. Lol.
I love when people post things, but dont post a link.
Phillies_Aces35
Cole doesn’t really care as long as he wins. The Phillies used to start Brett Myers of all people over him on opening day (for whatever reason, Charlie doesn’t always make sense).
Guest 5505
since you seem to know about the phills answer me this: why did Charlie always want to find an excuse to send werley back to the minors? He kept saying he hoped blanton would get back healthy last year…..
dylanp5030
He was sent back because he wasn’t needed because of an off day, they could skip the 5th starter and keep an extra arm in the BP and he could get a start in AAA for confidence after hen got shellacked by the Mets. Also, Victorino was coming back and they needed a spot for him.
Charlie doesn’t really make those moves.
Guest 5476
understood….the kid is a good pitcher
Phillies_Aces35
What dylan said.
Also: Charlie Manuel has a strong preference for veteran ball players, guys who have done it for him in the past. He let Brad Lidge set the record for blown saves in 2009 (for instance).
The_BiRDS
Well if and when Waino comes back healthy the Cards need to put money toward locking him up and NOT paying Hamels 20MM a year.. ya that would be a great line up but the Cards have plenty of pitching depth and have studs in the minors coming up who will be under team control for a while.. why pay tons of money for just pitching when you could have great, cheap pitching and money to spend elsewhere?
sam_lammert
trust me i agree completely, i’m just dreaming
Pawapuro
I love the idea. Though, locking up Molina is a much bigger priority than signing Hamels.
sam_lammert
agree 100% on that one
East Coast Bias
Happy birthday Cole. No birthday present this year, but next year, Cashman got you covered!
KJ4realz
I see Ryan Howard’s albatross of a contract traded to another team before I see Cole Hamel in a starting rotation other than Philadelphia. He has to be their number one priority.
User 4245925809
1st have got to find someone willing to tolerate 125m over 5 years for a 32YO 1B.. No tall order when there are at least 3, maybe 4 better and all but 1 make a lot less.
KJ4realz
My point was, and this is to the rest as well, that the Phillies have the most immovable contract in the game and the likelihood of it getting moved is so minute that I’m comparing it to the likelihood that Hamels doesn’t stay in Philly. So basically, I think the least likely thing in ALL of baseball will happen before we see Hamels put on a different jersey.
User 4245925809
Understand now. I really hope for his own sake he produces at least the next 3-4 seasons.
That can be a pretty unforgiving city toward ball players. Ask Burrell, Drew..
Peter G
If Vernon Wells contract could be moved Howard’s most definitely can.
Lunchbox45
so wrong
Michael Nguyen
Vernon Wells annual avg was 23mil per season. Howard is only 25mil and he still a big run producer and still hit 30+HR. While Wells is just flat out pathetic hitting like .220 or so.
Lunchbox45
yah that was after the trade.
the year before wells hit 31 HR while playing CF.
KJ4realz
Vernon Wells also was taken in by an incompetent GM that resigned shortly after. Also, Ed Wade is currently with the Phillies again so that’s 2 GMs right there that can no longer trade for Howard.
Howard’s contract is the most immovable thing in the world.
Phillies_Aces35
Should have traded him to the Angels when we had a chance… too bad AA got to them first.
Guest 5515
Word on the street was before he ruptured his Achilles they were going to trade him and eat a chunk of his salary and get in on the Pujols/Fielder bidding, which would’ve been courtesy of John Middleton. If you don’t know who he is, look him up. Regardless of Howard, there will be money for Cole.
Lunchbox45
made up
Guest 5514
what a strong retort. at least bleacher creature writes in full sentences.
Lunchbox45
you make up bogus rumours and want full sentences as a retort..
How exactly do you retort made up rumours…
‘word on the street’… give me a break
Phillies_Aces35
Never heard that. Besides, one of the main reasons they signed Howard was they were afraid of the 1st baseman’s market in terms of years.
It took a 10 year contract to sign Pujols and will probably cost 8 to sign Fielder.
I’m with Lunchbox though.
Lefty
I am going to try this little jingle I heard on the radio tonight catering it to Cole Hamels!
The one thing you can’t say about Cole Hamels is that he’s “Wishy Washy”!
Well , maybe he’s “Wishy” when blowing out the “Birthday” candles and “Washy” when he’s in the shower after a tough game, but never both at the same time!
Happy Birthday Cole!
Leonard Washington
Sox or Yankees if he leaves Phillies….hopefully the Sox. I can see Hamels leaving Philly. If he has to compromise a ton to stay he will be saying his goodbyes. So hope Ruben is ready to pony up offers at least in the ballpark of everyone else or sign him to an extension before the season starts. He isn’t staying on some huge discount imo.
NYBravosFan10
Now obviously I can’t truly judge his character because I don’t know the guy but from what I’ve read about him he’s very well aware of his skills and wants to be treated as such and that’s putting it lightly and professionally. He’s already said the Phillies will not get a a hometown discount and he wants his money. The point is that whichever team signs him will probably be required to do some serious high maintainance
Paul Boyé
—
Phillies_Aces35
He used to be a diva type, his mind set has definitely changed since he’s been around guys like Halladay and Lee and his humbling season in 2009.
Cole’s almost as intense as Doc is when he’s on the mound. He’s a perfectionist.
RobM
I don’t see him going for anything less than 6/135 on the open market. No reason for him to take any less from the Phillies now that he’s within one year of free agency.
ACMilan
For those who are saying that the Phillies do not have the money to sign Hamels, I give you the following:
$8.5 M coming off for Joe Blanton
$3.5-$4.5 coming off for the likely non-tendering of Kyle Kendrick
Couple that with the existing $14-$15 M Hamels will command this season and you have your $20 M per season for Hamels’ contract.
That would have a 2012 rotation of:
1. Halladay
2. Lee
3. Hamels
4. Worley
5. May
You also have $2.5 M coming off of the books with Jose Contreras’ ridiculous deal finally expiring with MLB minimum players capable of replacing him. Polanco’s contract will also be expiring, which is another $6 M. He will likely be replaced by Freddy Galvis for another all glove player; that too is the MLB minimum.
The Phillies have the money, the need, and the desire. Just get it done.
wayne_gomes
Pretty sure Galvis, a guy whose bat is a huge question for SS, is not going to replace our starting 3B next season. Also would be shocked if they moved May that quickly. But I agree with your premise that the money would be available to sign Hamels, the only real issue would be lux tax exposure, but in terms of real money spent they could just pay 10mm in year one of an extension like they did with Lee’s deal
Guest 5513
Agree with you on May and Galvis. May is a late season call-up in 2013. I’m not sure where Galvis fits in the grand scheme of things, but it certainly isn’t starting at SS or 3B. He might fill the super-utility IF role that Valdez currently has once he can hit as good as Valdez.
ACMilan
Polanco was worth .6 oWAR last year, which if you exclude the first month of the season, would be close to zero. Galvis provides nearly the same level of offensive ineptitude and defensive ability.
Don’t be shocked if May moves quickly…I’ve been VERY impressed with him. Remember how quickly Cole moved through the system when he showed durability.
As for the rotation…there are three legitimate options who are in the lower minors. That lets the Phillies take a 1 year veteran contract if the arms are not ready.
Phillies_Aces35
I don’t see Trevor May anywhere close to being ready to contribute any earlier than September of 2013… still has command issues to work out.
Joe Schmoe
Joe Blanton makes $8.5 million this year. Next year (2013)…
– $3.5 million of it goes to Cliff Lee in the form of a raise from $21.5
million to $25.0 million
– $2.0 million of it goes to Jonathan Papelbon in
the form of a raise from $11.0 million to $13.0 million
– $1.3 million of it goes to Carlos Ruiz in the form of a raise from $3.7 million to $5.0 million
– $1.0 million of it goes to Placido Polanco in the form of a
buy-out
– $0.5 million of it goes to Jose Contreras in the form of a
buy-out
– $0.2 million of it goes to Laynce Nix in the form of a raise
That’s 8.5 million right there, none of which can be given to Hamels.
hgr900
Saw Hamels out at the bars a few weeks back…that is all
Rory K
Realize I’m late to this discussion; however, the Phils should pay the man his money. If Hamels ever had any run support, he’s probably have 2 Cy Youngs by now – plus, he’s still very young for a MLB pitcher. Getting rid of Oswalt & hopefully Blanton frees up enough $’s to sign Hamels to a Halladay-Lee type contract. If Worley continues with his rookie form, signing Hamels for some big bucks would make the Phils rotation ‘The Fearsome Foursome’ for the next few years.