10:56pm: Darvish's father told Japanese news service Sponichi that his son's decision regarding posting may not come till mid- or late January, according to Rosenthal, which could substantially limit the number of bidders because many Major League teams – chiefly the small- and mid-market clubs – have their budgets set by then.
8:20pm: Darvish and Hokkaido haven't yet agreed on a posting fee, a scout tells Rosenthal.
“The player, I am told, is very quirky with a huge ego. Apparently, he will feel disrespected if the post is less than Matsuzaka’s was with Boston," the scout said.
A different scout who covers Japanese players tells Rosenthal that Hokkaido wants Darvish to depart so that it can collect the posting fee. The scout adds that the team was planning to post Darvish last year and "had to scramble" to work Darvish's $4.2MM salary into its budget.
1:50pm: Yu Darvish will likely be posted by the Nippon-Ham Fighters after next week's Winter Meetings, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. There are still some issues to be worked out, but Darvish's divorce is not a factor, Rosenthal adds.
While Darvish ranked behind only C.J. Wilson among starting pitchers on MLBTR's list of the top 50 free agents, there was no guarantee he would in fact be available this winter. Yahoo's Jeff Passan wrote last month that executives of some clubs were beginning to doubt whether the Japanese right-hander would be posted, and Darvish's father said a few days later that the odds were "about 50-50."
If Darvish is posted, bidding for his services figures to be very competitive. When MLBTR's Tim Dierkes polled agents in October, they predicted an average posting fee of $45MM and a total commitment of over $100MM to obtain the 25-year-old. The Yankees, Blue Jays, Nationals, and Rangers are among the many teams expected to have interest, and according to Rosenthal, new Red Sox manager Bobby Valentine "loves" Darvish, having managed against him in Japan.
That’s what I’m talking about finally some big news
And here we go…
I’m convinced the Yankees will overpay and win the bidding. It may or may not work out, but it’s less of a risk for them – and more necessary. It might lead to a chain reaction including seeing them eat a lot of the rest of AJB’s contract.
The Yankees will certainly put in a bid, but remember Valentine coached against Darvish in Japan, and “loves the guy.”
He may “love the guy”, but that doesn’t mean the Sox will go all in with Darvish like they did with Daisuke.
Well for that matter will any team “go all in”? We are dealing with speculation, even to the point that we don’t know if he will be posted at this point.
Well if he is posted I think you will see a few teams try to go all in for him. I just don’t expect the Red Sox to be one of those teams.
Well unless they win, we will likely never know…
You’d be very surprised by just how little cash the Yankees would need to send if they found a new spot for AJ. He’s certainly not a $16mm per year pitcher, but with a severe drought in experienced and healthy (emphasis on healthy and innings) AJ would be valued at $8mm or $9mm in this market. If he were a free agent right now, present day, I could see several teams going 2 years for $20mm and under. I mean Wilson is seeking $100mm more than that with three additional years. Rumors have it that Oswalt could get 2 years and perhaps $25mm and his back is about to split in half. You choose? It’s really not as far fetched as people make it seem and despite AJ’s not great, borderline horrible numbers, he’s actually not that bad of pitcher. And me being the optimist, I expect AJ to have a great season next year whether its with the Yankees or not.
I wouldn’t bet against AJ having half a bounceback year, especially if it’s not in NY.
No way AJ gets traded this year, he’s owed over 32 million.
Yeah, Burnett isn’t a bad pitcher. He just pitches like one.
Lowe was worth $5mil. AJ worth more then that?
The question is will his posting fee exceed Daisuke’s when he was posted?
Based on what we currently know, it seems very unlikely.
Agree. Dice-K and Igawa cost Nippon money.
I call BS on that. I will be shocked if the posting fee isn’t WAY more than $45 million — unless it’s because Darvish makes it known that he will only sign a much more expensive contract.
Journalists are singing the same old lullaby they sang when Matsuzaka was posted: “Go to sleep, go to sleep, go to sleep little Yankees. Go to sleep, go to sleep, you won’t have to pay much.”
And I’ll be shocked if the same thing doesn’t happen with Darvish that happened with Matsuzaka — that Boston will bid big (at least $60 million and probably closer to $80 million) and win (assuming neither Texas nor Washington bids even bigger). I also expect the Yankees to buy the nonsense that everybody’s spouting, bid low and be caught napping again. The only way the posting fee won’t be north of $60 million is if Darvish makes it known — and everybody believes him — that he won’t take less than $15 million a year.
Everybody seems to expect Darvish’s posting fee and contract to total $100 million at MOST. But given his resume, I expect the total of his posting fee and contract (assuming the winning bidder signs him to a six year contract) to be closer to $150 million.
And the journalists will be just like the casino operator in Casablanca — shocked, absolutely shocked, that Boston posted such a high bid and the Yankees were caught napping. Who says history doesn’t repeat itself…
All of that said, if I’m Darvish, I either make it known I’m not signing for a penny less than $15 million (or even more) a year or wait until I’m a free agent and pocket tens of millions of dollars more than I would by going through a process where $60-80 million of my market value goes to my current team instead of me.
You are so off-base it’s really not all that funny. I can’t quite figure out if you’re joking or not. You keep thinking about $150 million, and everyone else will be rational.
You understand I mean closer to $150 million than $100 million TOTAL — including his contract, I assume. Right, John?
Matsuzaka was a lightweight compared to Darvish. Has there ever been a starting pitcher in Japan with Darvish’s statistics?
You really don’t think any GM in the U.S. with money will either expect his 1-something ERA to translate into a 2-something ERA or that they’ll just have the balls to overbid and block other teams from getting him?
What would a starting pitcher in his 20’s with an expected ERA in the 2’s be worth as a free agent — especially if half or so of his contract wouldn’t count in computing whether you paid a 40% tax and, if so, how much, and you didn’t have to give up any draft choice(s) for him? I think it OBVIOUSLY translates into $20+ million per year.
Tell me what YOU think that translates to in terms of posting fee and contract. I estimate $75-85 million in posting fee if you’re assuming a six-year contract of $12 million per year. You do the math and tell me what YOU come up with.
But we’ll soon find out whether it’s you or I who is correct. If the total cost including posting fee is closer to $100 million, then you’re right. It doesn’t sound like we’ll have to wait long — although I do think there’s a good chance that somebody (like the Red Sox) makes a huge, ballsy bid on the posting fee and lowballs on the contract offer (caring more about blocking other teams than signing him) and that Darvish stays in Japan and gets posted another year or doesn’t come to the U.S. until he’s a free agent. It’s hard for me to imagine him taking much less than $12 million per year in any case.
But again, John, I’ve given you my rationale. Let’s hear yours including specifics and numbers explaining exactly where you believe it’s not logical or rationale.
What you say might be true, but lets not confuse the fact that Dice-K and Darvish have very little in common outside of the fact they both pitched in the Nippon league.
I agree though, the Red Sox with Bobby V. and the Yanks are the two big guns who will be in on Darvish.
I tend to agree with you, I think the Sox and Yanks are in on Darvish BIG TIME. For Big money.
@BLEACHER CREATURE — if you’d like to put parameters on your definition of “similar” I’d take some of that action.
Will Darvish ever post on this again
why would he post on mlbtraderumors?
Come on, Angels, “lose” Wells’ paycheck and have it turn up in Japan…
I’m not sure if i’d like to have a pitcher who’s already stated he would rather stay in Japan than come over here. To me that could cause problems with motivation.
Sounds more like leverage-building from the Darvish camp. The same way free agents in the MLB say they want to resign with their previous teams, but so teams would offer more money to “pry” them away to their clubs.
But once he’s posted, the leverage really benefits his team a lot more than him. I think KyleB has a point.
edit: I’m not saying it doesn’t benefit Darvish.
It’s not his decision whether or not he’s posted though. Once he’s posted, he can choose to refuse or accept the contract, or stay and pitch in Japan for another season until he’s posted again.
Darvish would be a beter option for the sox then overpaying for CJ
Totally agree on that statement, especially with Bobby V. as manager.
Watch for the Angels to be darkhorses in this process. Especially if they can find someone to take on half of Abreus contract.
Are you aware of DiPoto’s stated payroll limitations, and how they can’t exceed $140 million? If you think the Angels can somehow shoehorn Darvish + the AAV of his posting fee into their payroll, you should consult Dipoto’s statements.
October, they predicted an average posting fee of $45MM and a total commitment of over $100MM to obtain the 25-year-old. The Yankees, Blue Jays, Nationals, and Rangers.. also you can add the Red Sox and Angels to the Yu Darvish Party Train. I hope all those teams knock themsleves out by competing for him. I am thinking the Orioles should make a go for Oswalt and that’s it. If they don’t get Oswalt, maybe they should consider trying to “Outslug” the AL East. Go get Reyes, Aoki, Cespedes and so on. Also, trade for Andrew Bailey. The biggest problem wasn’t good pitching, the problem was getting them (pitchers) to last until the 6th or 7th inning and getting there in good shape. To many early exits last year!
I am of the mind Boston would go with the safer and short term sign of
Oswalt 1st over Darvish. They have a “front 3” already set in stone who
are pretty darn good and oswalt would be a more than solid short term
addition, allowing Ranaudo, Barnes and possibly even Drake Britton time
to fully develop.
Signing Bobby V. changed their mentality. If I was to bet on who gets Darvish, my money is on Boston. Bobby V. loves Japanese players.
Might be cash flow in play there some however.
ortiz and his arbitration acceptance/decline come 12/7 is an important date. if he refuses they should have more money to spend in better ways than on him, who they can replace in house with Youk, Lavarnway, or maybe even spend some of it towards someone like Willingham and then add a little bit of the average to a guy like Kuroda, possibly Darvish, Saito etc…
I am with you on Bobby v being an immense help toward ex NPB players, yet another way he should be able to help, not to mention he should be able to help with Tazawa come ST who is a tad over a year back from TJ surgery and has his velocity back, just some control problems he did not have before the surgery. bobby should be able to help more with communication problems there.
There might be a connection there.
If the Orioles’ success hinges on “outslugging” NY, Boston and Toronto, you guys are in for many more dark years
That might be true. However, I don’t really see that many free agent pitchers that can help us. So why not try an offensive approach with a solid bullpen?
Not sure about what your guys’ farm system is like, but I’d consider upgrading through trade since guys like Gio Gonzalez, Jair Jurrgens (this one is tricky), etc. are on the market. The Jays tried to slug it out and it didn’t work. Tampa built the best rotation in the division and it did. That’s what I’m basing my comments on
I wouldn’t trade even a decent prospect for Jurrjens. Damaged goods. Can’t pitch on one leg…
Very true, pitching wins in baseball, but it is also the most unpredictable part of the game.
There is the next NYY pitcher and why Cashman was not willing to talk to Wilson’s agents.
NY needs a proven #2 and Cash can hope his NPB performance will translate. Why not gamble. Georgie’s boys have his cash and of course will give it to him (unless they go out and give it to Wilson 1st) and NY has a need.
Because he could get hamels for simmilar money next year is why.
The Yankees are not a “next year” type of team. I bet that they will try and grasp Darvish and then try for Hamels next year.
Johan/CC
..because Hamels is guaranteed to be available in F/A next year?
No, of course, you’re right, all those extension talks are going great so far.
NY does need another pitcher, but they did finish last year with the 3rd best ERA in the AL last year, and over all one of their best pitching in the last 10 year.
Toronto has a big Asian and Middle Eastern community. If Anthopolous thought he was worth ~100 million total, I think he could convince Rogers to make a strong bid given his marketing potential here. If this guy is everything people expect him to be, I hope the Jays strongly consider it
Beeston stated they are very “Luke Warm” to the posting fee’s route for
Japanese players, i highly doubt they make a big enough bid if any. Dont get your hope’s up.
the policy there is not to divulge any info..that just just as easily be misdirection…lul teams into thinking you arent going for it and then BOOM. just bc they didnt announce they were going to go balls out doesnt mean they wont be in the mix. bc they will.
Whatever keeps your hopes up. Be prepared for disappointed though.
Cmon man, let us fans dream!!
Lol am i being a dream squasher? Yes i am , i just dont think it’ll happen, but thats why we are on this site, because ya never know!!!
I honestly don’t think the Jays will go after him, but man if they did. UBERBONAR
edit
I don’t Understand how Darvish is right behind Cj in the top 50 free agents..I don’t understand how he is even a top free agent..This guy has proved nothing at all
At least Darvish has performed in “the best league outside of North America.” Cespedes has barely any information available and he’s going to command a similar contract if you take away Darvish’s posting fee
Cuban players are more of a coin toss than Japanese players. At least there is media about Darvish. Anyone seen Cespedes play outside of the WBC?
I’d rather have Bryce Harper as one of my outfielders than Shelley Duncan.
Yeah and I’d rather have Albert Pujols as my first baseman than Lyle Overbay.
I think his point is that Harper is as unproven as Darvish is, probably more so, but people aren’t as skeptical about Harper.
Or means Bryce Harper is Japanese and Shelley Duncan is Cuban.
You are right. He is not a free agent and will be under some team’s control for at least a few more years no matter what happens.
What other international free agent starting pitcher has ever had so many consecutive years of a 1-something ERA and been so young? If there has ever been one, I don’t know who it’s been.
Idk either but what i do know is that MLB pro’s have smashed on majority of these Asian player’s..Wont be surprised if the same is done to Darvish
I can’t see the Yankees going all in on Darvish. Will they bid on him? Sure. But I doubt they bid $45MM plus just to negotiate with him and on top of that pay him $50MM plus over 5 years or so. I just don’t see the Yankees tying up about $100MM on someone who have never pitched 1 inning in the Major Leagues.
Just my opinion but I suspect they would rather use that money for someone in the FA class next year that has a track record in MLB.
If the piece is right we’ll find out soon enough what he goes for and where he goes.
If the Yankees don’t do it there aren’t too many other teams that will. I think it’s either the Yankees or another big market team. For some reason my gut keeps leading me to the Dodgers, Hmmmm.
Don’t count out the Blue Jays. They have a lot of payroll flexibility.
Beeston stated they are very “Luke Warm” to the posting fee’s route for Japanese players, i highly doubt they make a big enough bid if any.
Been hearing about this ‘payroll flexibility’ for years. They Jays will be ~$75 mil. Doesn’t leave much space for anything but more talk from the FO…
Well if they don’t have it now after unloading Wells and extending Bautista for a fraction of what he would get on the open market then they never will have it. BTW, both Cot’s and Baseball Reference have the Jays at about $40MM for 2012 in “committed” salaries. Now obviously that doesn’t include arbitration cases and filling out the roster. But that still should leave them “funny” money if they have an interest.
The Jays are going to have to make a move soon, they are starting to look like the Marlins of a few weeks ago.
The Jays might need Darvish more than the Sox or the Yanks. There pitching wasn’t too good last year.
Three teams most likely to win the Darvish sweepstakes:
#1 Boston (because they have the balls to bid super high and offer super low)
#2 Texas
#3 Washington
#4 Yankees (and maybe I’d put them even lower)
Why would you put them lower?
Let me remind you that they have the need and cash to perhaps go all out for Darvish. Not saying they will but that they can.
Why do I put them lower, NYPOTENCE?
Two reasons:
(1) Politics. They’re sensitive to looking bad by buying championships. And they know that lots of journalists and other Red Sox fans will never let them hear the end of it if they’re the high bidder — even if somebody else only bid a penny less.
(2) Personality. Cashman is measured and civil and civilized and, in my estimation, would be very unlikely to bid very high planning to make a lowball offer — both because he would be sensitive to the idea that it would be a bad faith offer and because he knows the media would bash him over the head with that accusation and others — like insulting the entire nation of Japan.
By contrast, the Red Sox did exactly that with Matsuzaka and the media not only didn’t accuse them of making a bad faith offer to him, but I recall reading at least one respected journalist suggest that Dice-K would be humiliating Japan and disrespecting his team by not accepting far less than anyone had expected him to sign for before the Red Sox won the bid and afterwards. The Red Sox know that they’ll get creampuff treatment in the media on that score again if they do the same thing and that Darvish will be treated the same way in the press, whereas Cashman knows that it would be exactly the reverse were the Yankees to post the high bid.
Just my opinion… We’ll know soon enough if I’m right.
P.S. If I were Cashman, I’d be bidding what I thought was VERY high — $88 million, maybe even more. And I wouldn’t be at all sure that I’d be the high bidder even then. I’d have no confidence whatsoever that Boston and Texas wouldn’t bid higher.
There is no garantee with Darvish. It’s like the Phils the last 3 years they had the best pitching with nothing to show for it. Let’s not forget the Braves of the 90s.
It’s the same reason why the Red Sox virtually always malign their players (and apparently coaches) on the way out the door and the Yankees don’t — because the Red Sox figure they can, so they do, and the Yankees know they can, but they don’t because it’s low rent.
The Red Sox also know that except in extreme circumstances (like with Francona) the media will let them get away with serial character assassination and barely utter a peep about it. By contrast, Cashman knows that if he even correctly questions the value of one of his players who he’s only offering 50% above market value to for twice as many years as anyone else would and invites him to get a better offer when that player is maligning the Yankees (cough Jeter cough) that the media will hang him by his toes.
Can you spell m-e-d-i-a d-o-u-b-l-e s-t-a-n-d-a-r-d?
I’ve yet to hear one thing from “the Red Sox” about a departing player/employee; it always comes from the media itself and then is tenuously linked to Lucchino, by that same media. Saying that the Boston media is ravenous and full of hacks isn’t going to be a shock to anyone though.
Agree, but not with the order and I would include any west coast team bc of the length of the trip from the East Coast to Japan.
I think you make an important point, CircusFresh. But that seems to me to be more relevant to where Darvish might WANT to pitch, not who would be most likely to win the bidding.
So if he were to wait and become a free agent, I think we’re talking about that becoming a more important factor.
I bet you didn’t pick too many winners in the top 50 free agents. Let’s remember if the Yanks want him they will be the highest bidders, otherwise they will let someone get him. If Cash is bidding I think he will have a ceiling, but if the owners want him like they wanted Soriano, he’s a Yankee.
Your “gut” is very unreliable then.
Not wanting to stir ugly NYY memories… But exactly how much was the total for Kei Igawal, with far less credentials than Darvish again?
$46,000,194MM total (posting fee and 5 year contract). No question Darvish has a better resume then any of the previous pitchers coming over from Japan. The question is how does that relate or transfer to the rigors of the ML’s.
History tells us that Japanese pitchers have not faired all that well over time. One year, two years yes but after that they generally tend not to be worth a huge outlay of money. At least that’s my opinion.
NO argument on past history.. I knew the total.. Was just a “jolt” kind of there..
The need now for a #2 for the NYY, with nova not cemented as a proven yet is still there. IMO, Darvish will still go cheaper than Wilson and is still going to end up better over the long haul of a 5 year contract that whoever wins his bid will probably end up giving him.
If Cash has not yet targeted solid starter via trade, am pretty sure he has one in his sites for next year. Maybe it is a veteran to bridge the gap for his core of youngsters, who should be ready (at least 1) by the end of 2012, or maybe 2013?
No telling yet, with lots of news so far in that regard not leaking out, but I would think more flux with the rotation, other than the return of Freddy Garcia.
I think the problem is less pitchers from Japan not doing well as it is pitchers that are acquired at the end of their prime. Japanese pitchers come here after they’ve pitched in Japan for years, and have racked up more than a thousand innings on their arm.
If the standard is Japanese pitchers vs. young MLB aces in their mid 20’s, then yes, they’re inferior, but compare Japanese pitchers to MLB pitchers in free agency, then it’s an entirely different picture.
Darvish is a different type of pitcher. First off he is only half Japanese, half Iranian. He is 6’5″ and 25 or 26 years old. Also he has a HOT singer girlfriend who probably wants to live in NYC or LA or close to either.
Dice K or Kei will not stop teams from signing Darvish. Almost all of the top free agent pitchers in the last 5 years have been busts, except for CC and Lee.
That was not my intention to say those 2 would slow down the posting for Darvish there.. I also think he will bring major $$$. Maybe not quite Matsuzaka posting fees, but his salary after the fee might equal out the 100m total Matsuzaka ended up costing over 5-6 years total.
Well, I at least know Theo will stay away from Darvish. Thanks, Daisuke.
Yeah bc its crazy for Theo to offer Dice-K a contract after his expires with Boston. LOL dream on brother, he signed Dice-K. Cubbies are funny.
Huh? I don’t understand anything about your response. Anything.
I wouldn’t be so sure Theo won’t be in on Darvish — although I know absolutely nothing about the Cubs’ finances.
Clearly, my semi-sarcasm font doesn’t work. The Cubs have a fairly decent sized amount of money to “play with” and starting pitching is definitely a need, but I don’t think Theo would go near Darvish. I said this (somewhat sarcastically) because of the mostly failed experiment that was Daisuke. Maybe after ’12, when the Cubs would only have $30 in commitments, but I can’t see Theo going for someone who isn’t quite a proven commodity right now. I’d rather he throw whatever available money for big FA at Prince.
I don’t think the Yankees or Red Sox will win the bidding, having been burned on Japanese pitchers before. I think it is the Rangers who will bid on and win Darvish.
Clearly biased, but do see them as an option.
I don’t think it’s bias, I think he’s just stating a broad opinion. I agree with him and I have a feeling the Rangers will win the bidding by surprise. That doesn’t mean, as a Rangers fan, that I want him here though.
If anything, I’m still unsure about how I would feel if my team got him.
Texas and Boston are logically most likely to be the most aggressive bidders. My money’s on Boston — especially with Valentine now knowledgeable about Darvish and cheerleading for him.
totally agree with the Bobby V. comments. Its why Ill put my money on Boston.
I want the Red Sox to get this guy. Let Reddick/Kalish play the outfield, and spend the money that came off the books with Drew etc. on PITCHING.
I would say it will require 45+m for posting fee plus 6/70~80m. Darivsh has all the leverage in the world. Darvish earned 7m in 2011, and if he wins arb then will make 9~10m in 2012. Probably 11~12m in 2013, 13~14m in 2014. Plus he has been saying ever since he was 20, that he doesn’t have strong desire to play in MLB instead he wants to be a HOFer in NPB. He will be FA after 2014 season and still be just 28.
He will never give discounts. This guy simply doesn’t care about going to MLB. Whoever offers him the best money will earn his service. Total of 120~130m would be required to get his service as he would not mind playing at Japan another 3 years, making 35m through 2014, then test FA market. He would be still 28 and easily earn 5/80m.
I’m not saying any teams will spend 120~130m to get 6 years of service. So probably a team will win posting but both sides won’t make an agreement.
I agree with you about the minimum contract that Darvish might even consider and I agree with you that there’s a good chance he doesn’t take whatever the winning bidder offers. But I can’t imagine the winning bid being only $45 million. As Vizzini said in the Princess Bride, to me that would be inconceivable.
That’s why I wrote 45+. 45M would be the bottom line and may accelerate over 50. Wonder how many teams would go for it.. This guy is at another level comparing to Dice-K. Easily the best Japanese player ever given his size, stuff, and stats. But 120~130m for unproven player? meh…
Is Darvish really unproven? Or have Japanese player’s stats translated to the U.S. with an adjustment factor?
If you adjust Darvish’s ERA up by 50%, that would still make him one of the handful of the best pitchers in the game, in his 20’s, who wouldn’t cost you any draft pick(s), and much of whose compensation wouldn’t count in the luxury tax calculation. What is all of that worth? When I play around with the numbers, I come up with it being worth more than $50-60 million plus $12 million per year for six years. I come up with more like $75-85 million and $12 million per year — or $145-155 million.
And again, if I’m a GM, why don’t I bid high and lowball the contract offer to block my rivals from getting him? That’s a flaw in the system, but it’s there for now. I would be shocked if the Red Sox don’t take advantage of it and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rangers did either.
Look at NPB pitchers number man.. there are like dozens of pitchers who has 1.XX era. I’ve watched his pitching number of times but I don’t think he has that much dominant stuff comparing true elite pitchers in big league. Can you believe there is only “1” player in NPB whose average is above .300?
Pittsburgh will win the bidding… 5 years/$15M
This is how the bidding will play out
Yankees – bid 67.777mil
Blue Jays – bid 56mil
Rangers – bid 54mil
Marlins – bid 45mil
Phillies – bid 44mil
Mariners – bid 40mil
Nationals – bid 38mil
Cubs – bid 36mil
Angels – bid 35mil
Red Sox – bid 25mil
Orioles – bid 20mil
Mets – bid 18mil
Indians – bid 15mil
Yeah, I don’t see the bid going any higher than 45 mil
lol I just can’t see that happening. I guess we’ll find out shortly.
We’ll never know the losing bids. But I agree that the winning bid will be north of $60 million and probably closer to $80 million. Only I don’t think it will be from the Yankees. More likely the Red Sox or the Rangers…
the Red Sox? Bobby V won the lottery or what?
Were you just implying that the Sox couldn’t afford that kind of money, or am I reading this wrong?
yeah, that was my point. I could be totally wrong on this but that’s what I thought when I read that “their (Red Sox) ability to sign him (Kuroda) would be contingent on gaining financial flexibility through other moves.”
The only place money is “tight” is the amount before they hit the luxury tax threshold. They could drop $60M on the posting fee and not blink an eye because it doesn’t count toward the luxury tax, so the very fact that they need “financial flexibility” (toward the luxury tax) makes Darvish much more likely than a guy like Wilson. And if they could get him on a $10-12M per year contract they would still have some room to fill out their other needs.
thanks for explaining this. I guess I was very wrong and I’m the first one to admit that.
No problem, it’s easy to get that out of what was reported if you don’t already know the Red Sox financial position.
Perfectly stated, MaineSox.
I highly, highly, highly, highly, highly doubt the bidding is even more than $60 million, much less close to $80 million.
I agree. I’d be surprised if somebody tops 50.
Numbers? Rationale?
I could see the bid pushing $60M, he would supposedly be offended if his posting fee was lower than Daisuke’s and Daisuke’s posting fee was $51,111,111, so I could see a team going for it and not only keeping from “offending” their potential future player, but also pretty much ensuring they win the bidding by bidding in the $55-$60M range.
EDIT: I don’t see $80M though, no way.
Numbers? Rationale?
uuuhh… That’s exactly what my post was, numbers and rationale.
MaineSox, what I was trying to ask was what made you think the bid could get up near $60 million as opposed to any other number, higher or lower — in other words, the thinking process of the team in bidding that amount and not more or less.
Well, my whole post was about why I don’t think it’ll take less than $55-60M, and I don’t think it will get up around the $80M that was suggest because teams wont think they need to bid that high. There is a lot of talk about people being weary of pitchers from the Japanese leagues, there are other options that are less unknown, and specifically if he waits until January to post there aren’t going to be a lot of teams bidding for him.
I gave you my rationale, John. What’s yours?
I’d appreciate hearing your logic with specific numbers included rather than a simple statement of what you think the number will be. I gave you my logic and my numbers. Where do you think my logic is flawed? Why? Numbers and specifics would be appreciated.
The Phillies would never bid $44 million or anything above or even close to below it. They don’t spend big money internationally.
They really need a good starting pitcher though…
The Mets and Indians bids are cute.
Ed Reed – I think you’re winning “bid” is very accurate. Remember, all these bids are “sealed” there is no direct cross bidding – like at an auction. One bid – winner takes all. Who ever gets him – assuming he signs – has him for at least 6 years – 7 if they don’t bring him up opening day 2012 – before he’s eligible for Free Agency.
In retrospect – Darvish will be the BEST move ever by the team that gets him – or the greatest “What were they thinking” moment in baseball history. I suspect it’ll be closer to the former than the latter.
$68 million to get the rights – 7 year $80 million dollar contract with a $10 million signing bonus. $158 million spread over 7 years = $23(ish) million per annum. He’ll be entering his age 33 year when it expires.
Rich – no question – but would you have signed Halladay for 7 years and that money when he was 25?
“but would you have signed Halladay for 7 years and that money when he was 25?”
In retrospect, sure… but you don’t have that luxury with Darvish. And would you have signed Hallady to a 7/$158M contract when (at that time) he had made all of 49 starts and had an ERA of 4.95?
he’s not roy halladay
There isn’t a snowballs chance in hell that any major league team will invest $158MM to sign this guy. Be it for 7 years or whatever.
Given a choice to spend 100M, I would rather use that money (and some more money) to sign one of the best hitters in the game in Pujols or Fielder. It makes more sense for the teams like Blue Jays.
Bautista + Fielder + Rogers center = >15WAR + >100 HR’s + more sense
Just saying, but shouldn’t it be =more sense?
gonna take a whole lot more than 100mil for either, unless you do something wacky like 3years 100mil.
Really hope Boston is as agressive this time around as they were when Dice-K was posted. People write off Dice-K, but minus his injury laden seasons he had a few good years with Boston.
I agree with you about Dice-K, dc21892. And I fully expect Boston to be even MORE aggressive with Darvish — and to leave the Yankees tens of millions of dollars in the dust. The only question is whether Texas or Washington or Toronto or some dark horse bidder bids more.
So minus 3/4 of his results he has been pretty good huh?
More like 4/5.
According to FanGraphs, before Dice-K got injured, in his first two years with the Red Sox, his WAR made him worth $15.8 million and $14.9 million, respectively. And most American pitchers signed to six-year contracts flame out, too.
During his time with the Red Sox: He’ll have gotten Tommy John surgery. He’ll have missed long periods of time for the DL. He’ll have only pitched 200 innings once. He’ll have only had an ERA under 4 once. He’ll never have had a WHIP under 1.325. He’ll have a career post season ERA of 4.79.
If you think pitchers flame out when they sign those kinds of contracts, why would you want to sign another pitcher to the same type of contract?
WHIP and postseason ERA. i’m no fan of matsuzaka, but change your name to cherrypicker3346
It’s unfortunate that when you add the posting fee to his contact he cost the Red Sox $17.17MM per year. Besides I’m not exactly sure Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is the panacea for a players worth.
Just one other comment. Even if we take your last comment at face value. Most American Pitchers don’t cost a team $100MM having had absolutely no MLB experience. In fact I would feel very comfortable saying NO American pitchers cost a team $100MM having had NO MLB experience.
Only there’s no reason to add the posting fee to his contract; it doesn’t go to the player, and it doesn’t count toward the luxury tax threshold.
I wasn’t talking about the impact on the luxury tax. If you notice I said “he cost the Red Sox…” and like it or not the posting fee is part of the cost to the Red Sox as it would be to any team.
Don’t fool yourself teams consider the cost of the posting fee when deciding whether or not to bid on a Japanese player. If they didn’t every team in the Major Leagues would be bidding on Darvish for roughly the $50 or $60MM over the next 5 or 6 years it would take to sign him.
Of course teams consider the posting fee when deciding whether or not to bid on a player, they do it in exactly the same way they consider the talent cost when they trade for a player. But you don’t take either into consideration when you are evaluating whether a player was worth his contract or not.
Why would the Red Sox be more aggresive as Dice-K was more of a failure than success & they have a ton of money tied up already to Dice-K, Lackey & Beckett next year (as well as increases in Lester & Buchholz’s salaries).
The money tied up in those guys is actually a reason to be aggressive with Darvish (not a reason not to) as the posting fee isn’t counted toward the luxury tax.
Yes but they already have some bad contracts on that team. More bad contracts aren’t going to fix the team, it’s only going to hurt the team more.
I’d rather wait & give money to a proven pitcher in MLB & not another bust like Dice-K.
Any pitcher can become a bust (Lackey says hello), so that risk is there whether they sign Darvish, or Wilson, or Buehrle, or…
Darvish makes more sense for the Sox than Wilson if for no other reason than for the luxury tax savings, and he makes more sense than Buehrle because there is a real chance that he is a better pitcher (now and in the future) and wont cost any more money per year.
Very well stated, MaineSox.
BC he is the 2nd best pitcher available. Which is the same logic used for Lackey. SO they have a 50/50 chance.
So do I, with Bobby V. and his love for Japanese players, I expect Darvish will be on the mound in Fenway.
In 5 seasons with the Red Sox he has had an ERA under 4.40 only once and that was in 2008 and he has never had a WHIP under 1.32
He’s had one good year 2008 out of 5 years. Not what you would expect or hope for a $103MM investment.
Despite the higher ERA he actually pitched better, and stay on the field longer, in ’07 than in ’08, and aside from a lower K/9 he actually pitched better in ’10 as well.
Keep that thought. You forget to mention he gave up more HR’s in 2007/09/10 then in 2008 in relation to innings pitched. He also had a higher BAA in each of those years than in 2008. As for him staying on the field longer in 2007 than 2008 he started exactly 3 more games in 2007 than 2008 but gave up 25 HR’s versus 12 in 2008. As for your comment about 2010 versus 2008 in 2010 he pitched less innings but allowed more runs, he allowed more HR’s and he had an ERA 1.79 points higher (4.69 versus 2.90) than in 2008. Where I come from those are not real good numbers.
I never said he was a good pitcher in any of those years, just that he was a better pitcher in ’07 and ’10 than in ’08. And telling me that he gave up more runs is simply re-stating the fact that his ERA was higher, which I already covered when I said “Despite the higher ERA he actually pitched better.”
How is it being a better pitcher than 2008 when he gave up more HR’s, had a higher BAA and he didn’t just have an higher ERA he had a higher ERA in those years by a considerable about. Sorry, but that’s not pitching better in those years by any definition.
You’re confusing results with process, he was extremely lucky in ’08, and unlucky in ’07 and ’10. He pitched better and got worse results.
And? His first year was okay considering his transition straight into the AL East. He’s not as bad as people claim. He has helped this team. At times, he has probably hurt them quite a bit, but he has done well, also.
Why wouldn’t Darvish Just wait till next year so he can get like 80 million to himself of the open market? I really don’t see any teams total investment coming in much more than 80 million anyway. Then like 30 million would go to Darvish.
my guess would be because he’s under contract in Japan through 2014…
Well, he is still supposed to make 12 million next year so why not wait?
I totally disagree with your numbers. (As I’ve posted repeatedly, I expect the total number to be closer to $150 million.) But I agree with your conclusion. I don’t understand why Darvish wouldn’t wait until he’s a free agent and he gets all of the value in his pocket instead of half of it or less.
One way around waiting would be to telegraph that he’s not signing for less than a certain amount per year (say $15 million per year) so that teams adjust their bids accordingly. But then, because of the flawed structure of the posting process, one ballsy, aggressive team could block him from coming to the U.S. by bidding high and lowballing him on his contract offer.
Nobody is spending 150 million, not even close.
“The player, I am told, is very quirky with a huge ego”
Exactly what Boston needs. A pitcher with a huge ego. [/sarcasm]
has red flags alll over it
Not sure which way I’m supposed to take this; do I make a sarcastic remark about not having other pitchers with huge egos, or not having players in general with huge egos, or not having a manager with a huge ego?
Hint: I wasn’t referring to the manager.
Gotcha. In that case, maybe Beckett can teach him how to be humble.
Understand that Japan is not the US and a big ego in NYC or LA or Boston is not the same as a big ego in Tokyo or Nagasaki. Dont be an ignorant American and think everyone is like us. Some people dont buy into the BS/Capitalist/celebrity crap that goes on in the US. Darvish might have an ego but no greater than say Matt Kemp or A-Rod.
I’ll ignore what you’re suggesting about America and Americans because that debate is better left for another forum, but I don’t think ego is even the right word. Japanese culture is very heavy on honor, and he probably sees it as a dishonor if he is viewed as worth less than a guy who, by all accounts, is and was a lesser pitcher; to the extent that he’s willing to risk having to take a smaller contract than he could otherwise get because he wants a higher posting fee.
…ARod has a huge ego, that’s quite clear from every time he’s opened his mouth. I never suggested Darvish had a larger ego. I simply quoted a statement and used it to make a joke. The fact that you turned it around to make a point you can mention to some freshman in a global cultures course shows that you just felt like making a statement without caring why.
Do us all a favor, stop pretending Americans are the only idiots in the world. Most of the world’s people are idiots regardless of their citizenship.
A huge ego? Wow, sounds like a real winner.
“The player, I am told, is very quirky with a huge ego. Apparently, he will feel disrespected if the post is less than Matsuzaka’s was with Boston.”
And, apparently, the player has a rather poor grasp of economics. A high posting fee hurts him financially. I guess we should chalk that up to his quirky nature.
I think this is all made up by the MSM. I follow Darvish for quite some time now and I don’t think he’s the type of guy that says something like that or even thinks that way. He’s one of the good guys.
A huge ego…in New York? If he can’t pitch worth a damn that will get deflated real quick.
Does he really have a choice? The posting system is exempt from the restrictions on international free agent spending, so this is his best bet to get a big pay-day.
Mabe the Marlins will give him huge money and the Tigers can get get Cespedes a little bit cheaper.
I see the Marlins winning the bid with $50m+, failing to sign him, and reassuring the fans “at least we were in on him!”
I think there’ll be plenty of other bidders on Cespedes besides the Tigers and Marlins.
Darvish may be a fool if he feels the size of the posting fee would disrespect him. He should be more concerned about how much goes into his own bank account and not the club’s.
Why is “divorce” used? Is Darvish getting a divorce and why would that affect the Pork Fighters?
it would affect Darvish because his wife wants half of his money. So if he gets posted next year or whenever that wouldn’t be a factor. Maybe it even isn’t this year, I don’t know.
Will the Atlanta Braves be in on Yu Darvish even if they could afford to make a bid?
Two words: Kenshin Kawakami.
NOT EVEN CLOSE to the same player. LOL, its not Darvish’s fault you bought low.
It’s generally a bad idea, commenter3346. And your question is an excellent one. Why indeed?
I guess it’s because aces are one of the rarest commodities in baseball. And if you’re ever going to pay for one and you have the money, the chance to bid for one who’s 20-something, who won’t cost you any draft picks, and half or more of whose compensation won’t count in the luxury tax calculation is about as good as it gets.
And I think Darvish will have a higher average WAR in the next six years than C.C. — who I think was a very questionable signing given his knee issues.
But your question is a great one.
You ask a great question, commenter3346.
The best answer I can give is that EVERY long-term contract with a pitcher is crapshoot, that Darvish is still in his 20s, and that I think he’s a better risk than C.C. (for whatever that might be worth).
But again, I think your question is a very good one.
I don’t think Darvish is any less risky than CC. At least CC has proven himself in the majors…look at Dice-K!
C.C. has proven himself. But he’s also proven that his knee can’t hold his weight without repeated surgeries. And I haven’t seen two many successful one-legged pitchers.
It basically doesn’t matter WHY it happens or even WHO is responsible for it. The fact is that it happens. And the Red Sox ownership and management know it.
Likewise, Cashman knows that if the Yankees offer a player 50% more than they’re worth for twice as long as anyone else would sign them and then invite them to shop the deal if they’re not happy with it that they’ll be excoriated in the media. Again, it doesn’t matter WHY it happens or WHO’s responsible for it. No matter why it happens or who’s responsible for it, it’s a fact of life. And it’s something he has to factor into his actions which the Red Sox ownership and management not only generally doesn’t have to think about, but which they can count on to cover them almost no matter what they do.
It basically doesn’t matter WHY it happens or even WHO is responsible for it. The fact is that it happens. And the Red Sox ownership and management know it.
Likewise, Cashman knows that if the Yankees offer a player 50% more than they’re worth for twice as long as anyone else would sign them and then invite them to shop the deal if they’re not happy with it that they’ll be excoriated in the media. Again, it doesn’t matter WHY it happens or WHO’s responsible for it. No matter why it happens or who’s responsible for it, it’s a fact of life. And it’s something he has to factor into his actions which the Red Sox ownership and management not only generally doesn’t have to think about, but which they can count on to cover them almost no matter what they do.
(Apologies for the double posts. I tried to delete them but seem to have failed.)
if darvish waits until january to decide, he will be the biggest troll in baseball history
Why does he use his dad as press secretary?
It doesn’t take much to figure out that eliminating the small market teams won’t be a coincidence. This guy is starting to look like a bit of a jerk. Maybe he should check his ego before he comes to America and gets it checked for him.
great minds think alike I guess 😉
apparently lol
Seriously dam Asian thinks he is smart..I Hope Yanks and all the other teams that have $ this year pass out and this fool stay’s in Japan
I’d like him to either stay in Japan or land on the Red Sox, Yankees, Marlins or Nationals and bust worse than Hideki Irabu, Kei Igawa, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Kenshin Kawakami combined
That would make my baseball year if he is just a complete bust oh man that would be pretty amazing to see
Why in heaven’s name would you wish failure on someone? You don’t even know the guy. It’s not as though his goal in life is to be a serial killer or something, he wants to be a great pitcher, and in that I hope he excels.
It makes him sure he will have the best chance to get 2 things:
1) Most money
2) best chance to win
think about it?Who is going to be bidding (in all likelihood) of the biggest market teams? 1st will be the NYY for certain and *maybe* boston, both of which have been perennial playoff at least contenders for 2 decades.
THAT is the definition of a *jerk*, leaving his homeland and trying to leverage his best chance to win? Is it really different than just declaring himself a FA?
Your whole point is..For loss of words really..Ludicrous..
I don’t think he has a whole lot of room to mess with things the way he’s doing. The success rate among Japanese imports (especially pitchers) isn’t sparkling clean so what makes him think teams are going to gamble unreal amounts of money just to be allowed to offer him a contract? Pitching in Japan is unbelievably different. Smaller ball and longer rest
I get u on NPB players and pitchers coming to the states and being more than “cannon fodder” as players, then Darvish is supposedly a Matsuzaka type star in the NPB league and we saw what Boston upped the ante for on him..No telling what say the NYY would be willing to go with a very SP short FA market this off season and exorbitant prices teams who have SP for trade are wanting.
As a Sox fan..It makes me happy they have 3 decent starters at the front and feel they have little need to gamble so heavily on someone like this. Don’t feel the NYY have this luxury however and they will be heavily involved with Darvish. the later the posting of him is, the more likely he is in pinstripes in 2012 IMO.
3 decent starters? That doesn’t sound like a Red Sox fan to me. Beckett, Lester and Buchholz are one of the best front three in the league. Anyway, seeing as how two of the posterboys for the Japanese failure I mentioned (igawa and irabu) have ended up on the Yankees so I somehow don’t think it matters to them. They go high roller territory on a single number while the rest of the teams play it safe and put the minimum bet on red.
Exactly, NYBravos10. Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz are way better than decent. But that won’t stop the Red Sox from trying to lock up a young ace — especially one who helps them stay below the luxury tax threshold and may keep their archrival, the Yankees, from getting him themselves.
Strategically, they may view it as a quadruple benefit to sign Darvish: (1) They get a young ace. (2) The Yankees don’t get him. (3) They get a huge advantage in terms of being able to compete while still staying below the luxury tax threshold. (4) They keep the Yankees paying a 40% tax on more dollars since the Yankees spend the equivalent dollars, all included in the luxury tax calculation, for an ace (whether it’s Hamels or Hernandez or Johnson or Lincecum, you name it) down the road.
So for the Red Sox, it would be win/win/win/win.
“3 decent starters? That doesn’t sound like a Red Sox fan to me.”
No offense there, but have been a hard core sox fan since before the Impossible Dream team of ’67..
Will under estimate positive things regarding the front 3 sometimes, only because some will prefer to instigate negative comments regarding Bucholz coming back from his back injury and some insist Becket is an every other year starter for some reason… so safer to just say “decent”…
I understand it is impossible to remember every single poster on here. LOL have been yacking here myself since Tim started this blog.
If CJ Wilson is looking for $120M, why wouldn’t you heavily consider paying less for Darvish? I don’t like Japanese imports, but in my mind he’s less of gamble than more money on Wilson – not that Wilson is guaranteed to get $100M. And when you consider that the next best available free agent is Kuroda, Oswalt or Edwin Jackson, I can see why Darvish is getting attention. It’s either that or overpay with prospects for players like Matt Garza, Jurrjens or the like.
This may be more of a “I’m still in the middle of a divorce” kind of move.
“Darvish’s father told Japanese news service Sponichi that his son’s decision regarding posting may not come till mid- or late January”
Most teams won’t be willing to wait until January just to enter the bidding gamble and/or have allocated their budget by then. This should limit his suitors to big market teams and I think that’s no coincidence.
Will it though? I’d offer that the Red Sox and Yankees are more likely to have their rosters set by then. You think a team in a “win now” position like the Red Sox or Yankees would be willing to pass on all the free agent pitchers and trade possibilities just to wait for a guy who may or may not sign with them?
You think the Red Sox or Yankees would pass on putting in a serious bid for a twenty-something pitcher if they think he could pitch to a 2-something ERA, could be had without costing a draft pick, and half or more of his compensation wouldn’t count against the salary cap just because they signed one of the top free agent pitchers a month earlier?!
If they want him, they’ll have the funds to bid. Again, as I understand it, the Red Sox owner ALWAYS has hundreds of millions of dollars of liquid assets at his fingertips at the ready in his day job. And the Yankees always have access to cheap money based on their sterling credit if they want it/need it.
It’s not about having the money, or being willing to put in a serious bid, it’s about having the roster space. If their roster is full they either have to cut someone or be out of the bidding because they wouldn’t have any place to put him.
I don’t disagree with you, but does it really matter in the end? It’s not like there are any small market teams that will challenge the clubs with more money. We all know that the only clubs that will make a big offer are probably the Yankees, Jays, Red Sox, and Rangers. The only “small-market” team that I see making a push would be the Nats…and it’s not like D.C. is that small of a market.
BREAKING NEWS : Houston Astros acquire Maicer Izturis from the LA Angels for a PTBNL or Cash
ugh, why?
That’s not a good deal lol but they may need more cash (the Angels) to get FA’s
I understand where you’re coming from but how the heck much money are they gonna get for Maicer Izturis. It’s like someone selling that old rusty bike that’s been in their garage for 15 years at a garage sale for 5 bucks.
This move might look corny on the outside. But it makes a lot more sense once you give it some thought. Most big ticket pitchers will be off the market by the time Darvish is posted. Leaving teams like the Nationals( Go Nats! ) in a desperate position , willing to overpay. What do you folks think?
I know the starting pitching market is slim and Darvish has looked great on the grandest scales, but how many teams have that kind of money to allocate to essentially a wild card? It’s going to take $90M plus to sign this guy, and that could be money to sign Jose Reyes, by some accounts.
I agree unless your a team like the Yankees and Red Sox who can use a starter and have no interest in Reyes. Think if your the Yankees and you get Darvish and he is as good as he was in Japan and in the WBC. Now it is October and your in the ALCS against the Red Sox and the Red Sox gotta face Game 1: CC Sabathia, Game 2: Yu Darvish and Game 3: Ivan Nova. It could be 3-0 going into Game 4 making that money spent well worth it.
Based strictly on his Japan nimbers: 40M posting fee 4/55 contract
Based on Japan and WBC: 48M posting fee 54/60 contract
Add incentives that could make the contract 4/75