The latest Red Sox rumors, courtesy of Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald…
- The Red Sox are expected to explore signing free agent Grady Sizemore as a right field option, a team source tells Silverman. Sizemore would not rule out playing a corner outfield position for the first time in his MLB career, said agent Joe Urbon. An incentive-laden contract for Sizemore would likely include a player option, writes Silverman. Sizemore ranks 26th on my top 50 free agents list.
- Predict which top free agents the Red Sox and other teams will sign in our new contest for a chance to win awesome prizes.
- In declining Dan Wheeler's $3MM option yesterday, new Red Sox GM Ben Cherington said, "We didn’t feel like we could commit to that money this early in the offseason."
- Cherington hinted that the team's shortstop surplus could be helpful on the trade market.
- The Red Sox made no offer for Derek Lowe, said Cherington.
- The Red Sox were "expected to go after C.C. Sabathia hard, if only to drive his price tag in New York higher," hears Silverman. Sabathia completed a contract extension last night.
- Though Commissioner Bud Selig could step in as early as today to resolve the Theo Epstein compensation talks, Silverman doesn't think it's a hard deadline.
Signing Sizemore is a dumb idea. He just adds another left-hand bat to an already lefty lineup. While his .OBP was high in the past, he’s never hit above .300 and the past two seasons he was horrible. I’d rather have Beltran if he comes cheap.
Beltran won’t come cheap though
Beltran is older and about as big of an injury concern AND he’ll command multiple years.
The lefty thing isn’t the issue people make it out to be. For one, the Sox hit lefties fine last season and for two, if Ortiz walks, his replacement would be a likely combo of Youk and Lavarnway, both of whom are righties.
If Sizemore could be gotten on a one year deal, I’d definitely scoop him up. If he doesn’t work out, Kalish/Reddick makes for an adequate plan B.
And one of the main reasons that the Sox hit LHP so well was because of Ortiz. He hit .329 with a .989 OPS against LHP. So replacing him with a RH bat is not going to improve this team in terms of hitting against LHP. Ortiz was basically a RHH hitting from the left side last year in terms of splits.
Because clearly the offense needs to be upgraded from last year.
Where did I say that it needed to be upgraded? All I said was that by losing Ortiz, this team does not become any better against LHP. In fact, it becomes worse.
I’ve said it from the beginning. If I’m Cherington, I sell high on Ellsbury in a deal for a guy like Dan Haren. Sign a guy like David DeJesus to play a corner OF spot, move Crawford to CF where you can actually use his defense, and stick Kalish or Reddick in the other corner spot. It would be a downgrade in offense, but an enormous upgrade in pitching, and lets face it. This team’s pitching was the polar opposite of it’s hitting.
Ellsbury for Dan Haren? C’mon man don’t bogie that thing- puff and pass, man, puff and pass.
Yeah. I guess a 27 year old, cost controlled, 9.4 WAR player isn’t a good trade chip.
Umm, yeah, my problem was clearly with the Ells part of that deal. Seriously man, how many bong hits have you had?
Not for Haren – try Ellsbury, Bard, and Kalish for Quintin, Danks, and Thorton
Euw, no. Ellsbury put up more WAR than the three of them combined on his own last year and Thornton’s the only one signed past 2012. I understand the odds of him repeating next year aren’t good, but that’s a terrible deal.
LOL
That trade would make the Red Sox considerably worse.
yah, angels are totally interested in outfielders right now, totally .
Yeah. Because their offense last season was amazing.
What does that have to do with defensive positions…
They have Trout, Bourjos, Wells, Hunter, Abreu… and you think that they would upgrade their outfield?
Seriously, no chance, terrible trade idea.
REALITY IS NOT A FACTOR
“So replacing him with a RH bat is not going to improve this team in terms of hitting against LHP.”
smh….
Read all of the posts. The first post was talking about how this team struggles vs LHP. The post I responded to was talking about how we would be LH heavy if we replaced Ortiz with Lavarnway/Youkilis.
Then, I said “Replacing Ortiz with a RH bat is not going to improve them” meaning they won’t by any less LH heavy because of his splits.
The post you responded to did not say that they would be leftie heavy if they replaced Ortiz with a RH bat, in fact it said just the opposite. Obsessions was saying that signing Sizemore wouldn’t be a problem because the team hits well against LH pitchers even with all the lefties that are already on it, so when you came on and said that replacing Ortiz with a RH bat wouldn’t make them any better against lefties it came across as you saying that signing Sizemore would be a problem because of the too many lefties thing.
What you were really trying to say I don’t know, but surely you can see how what you said would seem to suggest that, given what Obsessions’ comment was really saying.
Bang on. People are just enamored with Beltran and his NL past, while both Sizemore and Beltran have both had injury histories.. Age and contract length, plus total cost would both swing in favor of Grady and he is not a Boras client as most know, meaning a quicker sign more than likely if he truly is amendable to playing a corner OF position.
Just about every thing swings in favor of Sizemore. Once again it is hard to understand why so many would favor Beltran over Grady.. My only problem is the price dropping on him low enough, as see him getting more$$$ per season, even if only 1 year than Beltran.
I disagree. Sizemore will be nothing but a waste of a signing. I’d rather rely on Kalish/Reddick than waste money on a struggling outfielder who just couldn’t hit the last two years. If he’s not going to be better than Reddick/Kalish, then what’s the point? At least Beltran proved his case last year, and now that he’s dropped Boras we may have a chance to sign him cheaper.
Sizemore is another declining player that MIGHT have a good year. In the last 3 years he averaging just over a .227 avg…. do we need another Cameron. Let the youngsters (Reddick/Kalish) platoon right. Save the Beltran money and resign Pap and Ortiz, and for the love of GOD get some pitching!!!
It depends on how much and how long, I’ve been hearing his knees are shot, however hes younger than Beltran, If they can get him short term, with an incentive laden contract so if his heath does not hold up he won’t cost too much, why not?
Again, rumors have got to make sense. Do you honestly think the Sox are going to pursue a relatively expensive and quite mediocre additional left-hand bat for their line up? Do you think the Sox are going to push their outfield payroll up above $35MM per season? Silverman and his source must be off their respective rockers.
What makes you think Sizemore will be expensive?
I said relatively expensive, as in $5MM or so per season, when we have Kalish and Reddick ready to step into the role at approximately $450K each.
I hope Silverman is right, personally. I would love it if the Sox took a chance on Sizemore; he has tons of potential, and like it says, they would likely try to get him on an incentive-laden deal.
adrian will teach the crap out of him
Only if it’s god’s will, though
He’s a career .270 hitter whose had 2 abysmal, injury plagued years in a row. I know he was an all-star-caliber beast several years ago, but that guy is long gone after 5 operations in the last 3 years. What kind of upside does he offer that Kalish and Reddick don’t already offer at salaries that are probably one-tenth of what Sizemore will want on a per annum basis? The last thing we need is another injury-plagued left-handed outfield bat, and a mediocre one at that. I’d much rather spend $8-$10MM per year for a guy like Cuddyer, who is mostly healthy, a right handed bat, has consistently above average numbers, and is extremely versatile in terms of his ability to switch positions. I think Sizemore is a very poor choice for a low-risk/high-reward turnaround.
There is no actual evidence that “that guy is long gone,” simply conjecture. In fact, given his age, I think there would be a better chance that that guy is still there.
Him being a .270 hitter is absolutely meaningless; he’s got a ≈ .360 OBP for his career, and that’s including his last two injury plagued years. He showed (in limited time) this year that he still has the pop he used to, hitting 10 homeruns in less than 300 PA (which would be about 25 HRs given a full season). He has played well above average defense in CF in the past, and even while injured has played about average defense in CF, so he would likely be above average for a right fielder.
Sure, Cuddyer is more versatile than Sizemore, but he is also older, plays considerably worse defense, doesn’t have nearly the potential upside of Sizemore, and doesn’t even hit as well. He’d also probably want more guaranteed money and a longer contract.
The way I look at it is: the worst that can happen with Sizemore is you spend, say, $5mil on him and he’s hurt and doesn’t play most of the year and you end up with Kalish in RF, while the best that can happen is he comes back healthy and gives you a huge year (a la Beltre last year).
The worst that can happen with Cuddyer is you give him 2-3 years for $8-10mil per year and he spends a bunch of time on the DL and you waste 4-6 times more money than you would have on Sizemore, the best that can happen with Cuddyer is you get 2-3 WAR out of him for a couple years.
You’re not addressing the biggest problem on this team, character. Cuddyer is a notoriously great presence in the clubhouse and inspires camaraderie, just what the doctor ordered. Sizmemore on the other hand, is yet another quiet, “to him self” guy, no solution to our problem. With that being said, I don’t see the sox going hard after either one of them for more than a year. Kalish and Reddick are both viable starters given the offense this lineup produces. Kalish and his health status is the real wild card, that’s why I see Sizemore as more of a possibility. Sign him to one of those “Beltre contracts”, allow Kalish to develop and prove his durability and address the situation next year. Not only can you make a more informed decision on Kalish, but there will also be more options on the free agent market for outfielders. A real difficult decision for Cherrington, but I would take the cheaper of the two options, don’t want to continue the poor spending habits Theo developed over the past 5 years. He is most likely looking for a 2003 offseason, not 2011 offseason.
Character isn’t the biggest problem on this team, injuries and everyone deciding to suck for a month is what was wrong with this team. I don’t buy all of the BS coming from the Boston media about character and chemistry and all that crap, these guys are too talented to play like they did in September, it’s that simple. They could put exactly the same team on the field next year and I would be confident that they would make the post season.
Whether Reddick is a viable starter is up for debate (he cooled off pretty hard after his hot start), but Kalish definitely has the talent to be a solid regular in Boston. However, as you noted, Kalish lost last year to injury and needs to show that he is healthy; that’s just another reason that Sizemore would be a perfect fit for Boston, they can probably get him on a one year deal giving Kalish time to get back up to speed.
An added bonus with Sizemore is that he has massive upside (way more than either of Reddick or Kalish), so if he has a huge year for them, and they believe that he is finally healthy, there is always the option to extend him making the other two expendable.
Nobody’s going to give Sizemore multiple guaranteed years at this point. If he could be gotten for Beltre’s 2010 contract, I’d do it in a heartbeat. The guy was one of the MLB’s top players three seasons ago and he’s not even thirty yet. He’s a risk, but a risk any sensible GM would take.
Didn’t Beltre get $10mil from the Sox in ’10? I wouldn’t be surprised if Sizemore could be had for half that (probably plus incentives).
no compensation picks on the back-end, but i’d still go for it. package reddick in a trade and let kalish get himself back on track in pawtucket
“Didn’t Beltre get $10mil from the Sox in ’10? I wouldn’t be surprised
if Sizemore could be had for half that (probably plus incentives)”
That would be slick as snot. Even if the incentives added up to say…500PA and another 5m on a sliding scale??
I respectfully disagree. The entire left side of this guy’s body is reconstructed, along with his right knee. He has mediocre hitting stats, except for slugging percentage. He struggled to play 101 games over the last 2 seasons. I don’t see him as a viable reclamation project. And good G-d, we don’t need another left handed bat.
“The entire left side of this guy’s body is reconstructed, along with his right knee.”
Indeed. He’s more machine now than man, twisted and evil.
Okay, now that that’s out of my system, mediocre hitting stats? Good god, are you nuts? We’re talking about a guy who probably should have won the 2008 MVP (And I love Pedroia). His OBP in his last full year was .374 (OPS .876) which is plenty, even for a corner outfielder and a sight better than Reddick or Kalish is going to do this season. If he’s available on the cheap, his upside makes him a fantastic buy-low candidate.
We are not living in the distant past. What he did in 2008 would be relevant to our discussion if there wasn’t this intervening car crash called his health. 5 operations, both knees, very mediocre hitting numbers, excepting his slugging percentage. Sizemore’s career slash line: .269/.357/.473; Drew’s career slash line: .278/.384/.489. Drew is widely regarded as mediocre to a disappointment, but he’s been a better performer than Sizemore. So why chase a guy who hits worse than Drew, plays defense worse than Drew, and misses more games than Drew? Even at half the money, he’s gonna be a bad disappointment.
I agree with you that this makes no sense. Reddick and Kalish already bat left-handed. Why would you want 3rd lefty to play RF?
Because he has 10x more potential than either one of them?
That would be true if he had at least a 50/50 chance of getting healthy. Its more like a 10% chance he will be healthy enough to play 82 games. And even then, his skill level has been drastically depleted from the fond memories you have of one who was a perennial all-star. I disagree with you and agree with Lars.
Again, there is absolutely zero evidence to back up what you are suggesting.
Not so. Over the last three years, he’s played 200+ games, about 70 per season on average. Over the last 2 years, he’s played a total of 101 games, an average of 50.5 games per season. So EVERYTHING, factually speaking, points to him continuing to decline in terms of ability to play games.
Less than a season’s worth of games over two seasons in which he was injured even when he was on the field is your evidence for him not being any good even when he’s healthy?
The fact that he has a concerning injury history is a legitimate point (but one that would be worth the risk in my opinion); “And even then, his skill level has been drastically depleted” is in no way a defensible point. Even it turns out you are right, there is no evidence to support that claim at this point.
No, I said he can’t and won’t get healthy. I didn’t use the stats as examples of how good or bad he would be if he got healthy. But even his best projection, made by Bill James, was for J.D. Drew-like batting performance for a full 2011 season. Marcel came much closer to actual performance in his projection, and still overestimated Sizemore’s performance. That’s not a ringing endorsement for the “high reward” side of the risk equation.
There isn’t an important statistic concerning Grady that isn’t trending downward. His UZR/150 has fallen off the map. His batting has continued to plummet, with the exception of slugging percentage and home run rate. His number of games played trends downward, below 51 per season, on average. I admit he’s a low-risk proposition, but the reward side is just not there, in my opinion.
And what, pray tell, do you have in the way of objective statistics or facts that support your theory as to how such a signing might play out? What makes you think that Sizemore, once signed, will suddenly become “magically delicious”? ™ Lucky Charms.
Let’s assume, just for a moment, I’m right. Now, let’s carry our minds back to the Brad Penny experiment. Do you remember how maddening it was to watch Penny pitch 2 or 3 wonderful innings, then proceed to dissemble on the mound around the 3rd or 4th inning of every outing? Obviously, you don’t get the same “instant” feedback on the performance of an outfielder as you do with a starting pitcher. But would you want to risk having that kind of let-down from your right fielder, given that you should be able to get performance about half as valuable as Sizemore’s best projected performance out of either of Kalish or Reddick, for about a tenth of the minimum cost to sign Grady?
I’d be right there with you, calling for us to sign him, if there was any reasonable hope (50% probability or above) that he could return to playing at 2/3 the level of his 2008 performance. But there is nothing that objectively says that is possible. If I’m missing it, please show me.
I don’t even know what you’re trying to do anymore, you start out saying that he’s not going to be healthy and even if he is healthy he’s just not good anymore; now you’ve changed your argument to just that there isn’t any chance of him being healthy, and you want me to prove that he’ll be healthy. How exactly am I supposed to prove that he’ll be healthy? You can’t prove that any player is going to be healthy, stuff happens.
But as far as your last paragraph; how can you even pretend that it isn’t possible that he returns to 2/3 of his ’08 performance? Of course it’s possible, he’s done it before, so unless the talent isn’t there anymore, he is capable of doing it assuming he stays healthy. So now we’re back to your original argument that he isn’t capable of putting up those numbers anymore even assuming he’s healthy, and two injury plagued years still isn’t evidence that he has lost any actual talent. You’re arguing in circles now.
Let’s just avoid your game that you play of complaining about the argument when you have no basis in fact. I’m not asking you to prove anything. We are talking about the SUBJECTIVE judgment of making a projection on a risk-reward basis. There will never be proof. Its an educated guess. So, point me to one thing, other than Sizemore’s 2008 and prior peformance, that should give us any hope he will play more than 82 games per season in the future, at a level that at least equals that of J.D. Drew’s career numbers. My point is, you can’t. There is no “logical” basis on which to pin such a hope. Its a complete wing and prayer signing. You’d be hoping that he can defy everything that has come to pass over the last three years – his 5 surgeries, his awful defensive decline, his mediocre offensive performance – and its nothing but a pure hope. There’s not a single fact out there that could bolster that hope into a reasonable risk judgment.
I know that there isn’t a single fact out there to “bolster the hope” that he stays on the field and is productive, but the point is that there isn’t any more proof that it can’t happen than that it can; it’s a risk, that’s why it’s called that.
It isn’t any different than taking a risk on any other injury prone guy who has shown tons of potential, it’s like the Bedard signing last year; there was a risk that he would end up hurt and wouldn’t be able to play, but he had shown the talent in the past to make the risk worth it; it’s the same exact story with Sizemore. If the price is right (and especially when you have quality back up options) the risk is worth it every time, just on the off chance that he is healthy and productive.
You keep forgetting to show any proof that he simply doesn’t have the talent even when he is healthy though. That’s something that should actually have some evidence to back it up if there really is anything to suggest that it truly is the case.
Bedard is a totally different situation. He’s a guy who has had some injury downtime, but currently gives a team innings with a sub-4.00 ERA. That’s a risk with a potential upside. There are 5 surgeries and 3 years separating Sizemore from solid performance. All of the statistical trends point downward on his performance levels. His agent is dropping suggestions in the media that he’s open to a corner position if he can get the approximate $9MM/Yr., over multiple seasons, that was just turned down in his option. That’s a ton of money to risk, with no indicia of a glimmer of promise for improvement, for someone who doesn’t really fit the Sox needs (lefty bat, center fielder, not a character guy/clubhouse leader). Like I said, this is a purely subjective projection analysis, so there’s never going to be “proof” in either direction. But his statistical trends (not the statistics themselves) over the last 3 seasons are the best objective indicia we have to evaluate where he’ll be, going forward. The trends indicate he will be a sub-50 game player, who hits 10 homers and 20-30 doubles, with a circa .265 batting average, at best. Those trends militate the conclusion that Sizemore is a poor risk. He could prove me wrong, but the best guess, based on the best evidence available, is that such a signing would have a very high probability of failure/disappointment.
You know how the Sox fanbase is. If Cherington were to take this flyer, and it fails, it would be like an albatross around his neck, vis a vis, J.D. Drew was to Theo. If you were him, would this be one of your first F/A signings?
That’s why I’ve said all along that the price would have to be right, I certainly wouldn’t give him $9mm guaranteed, and I wouldn’t give him multiple guaranteed years either. But if he could be had for half that (maybe plus incentives to bring it to where he would want to be, if he plays well enough) I wouldn’t hesitate for a second to make him one of my first signings if I were Cherington, especially knowing I had a backup plan in Reddick/Kalish.
Even at $9mm he wouldn’t be anything like J.D. Drew though, and he showed just last year that he can play good baseball when he’s healthy; he played absolutely out of his mind for two months last year when he wasn’t playing hurt. It was an extremely small sample size, so it should be taken with a huge grain of salt, but if the talent just weren’t there anymore he likely wouldn’t have been able to play at that level, even for two months.
Aside from what his agent is floating, even at half the price for one year, its not a good risk. Its not true that he had 2 lights out months. He had a great April, and a good July, mixed with very poor performances in May, June and September. He basically sat out August. He had the very worst 5 defensive months of his entire career. If he had actually had 2 great months in a row, before shutting down, I might have a different opinion in this case. There’s no consistency, no trend to the positive, nothing to pin good hopes upon. I just don’t see where you find a potential upside here.
he was also injured if ya didnt notice.
1: Beltran will not be cheap, that much has been made clear.
2: Sizemore might well be cheap, and makes a lot of sense, he is still young and can still be good if he can get healthy
Thats a big IF regarding his health…IF he agrees to an incentive laden contract then he’d be worth the risk but I wouldn’t bank on him playing close to a full season so there better be a player ready to fill in….
Well Reddick/Kalish starting the season platooning (or just one of them taking the starting position) was always a discussed option, so they would be the fill-ins in the case that Sizemore goes down.
That’s the reason Sizemore might make sense- you have Kalish and Reddick to step in when he gets hurt. Too bad he bats left also though. I’d be for anything that helps improve the pitching staff…if Sizemore means Reddick then gets flipped for an arm, I be for it.
Agreed, but I don’t think Reddick brings back much of an arm (unless you meant Reddick as part of a package).
forget RF for Sizemore… gotta sign somebody to occupy that DL spot.
Yes please. Sizemore on a 1 year deal for 5M + incentives up to 7.5M! Then he’ll just be 1M short of what his option would have paid him. Sizemore is good when he plays. If they don’t sign Ortiz, it’ll be nice to have the DH spot to rotate Youk, Sizemore, Gonzalez, Lavernway into. I’d take the risk on a 1 year deal to Sizemore.
We definitely do not need another left handed bat in the lineup. Or another JD Drew (injured more than he plays). What we need in RF is a strong right handed bat, above average defensively and a relatively strong arm. Also, a good clubhouse type personality. There are several options on the market now to chose from.
Forget Reddick. He is too erratic in the field and inconsistent at the plate.
“There are several options on the market now to chose from.”
No, there aren’t. There aren’t any options available that are decidedly better than Sizemore. Beltran’s as big of an injury risk, Crisp doesn’t have the arm for right field, Cuddyer’s subpar defensively and he hasn’t put up enough offense in his career to offset it rather than going with Kalish, Willingham is J.D. Drew without the defensive ability.
So yeah, the sensible option would be to take a flyer on Sizemore and use Kalish should that not work out.
“Crisp doesn’t have the arm for right field”
Crisp doesn’t have the arm for a CF, nor a LF even if you really get down to it.. He just flat out can run down any ball hit to the OF and is one of the best at positioning, plus getting reads on the ball off of the bat, but as far as arms go, maybe Damon’s arm was better even and that is bad.
Cuddyer is a better option. And far more versatile.
Dude, what? Cuddyer, while not bad, is a definitive step down from Drew in every conceivable way outside of his health. He’s a poor defender, he’s got mediocre plate discipline and he’s going to cost something to the tune of 3/$30MM plus. Considering one of our best prospects is an outfielder, we’re much better off not signing a guy to a multi-year deal.
he’s also a type A i.e. type F that
Does anybody else think there is a possibility that Crawford will move to right. Then Cuddyer will make a suitable rf in Fenway. Not to mention Carl’s athleticism is being wasted in lf. Hopefully the next manager will notice that
Crawford doesn’t really have the arm for RF, plus he has never played RF (to my knowledge anyway) and the only way you move a guy like Crawford (ie a “star” player getting paid a ton of money) is if you are bringing in another “star” player, not a borderline starter like Cuddyer.
All we need is an all-star right fielder. Pleeeenty of options.
We really don’t though. We need some actual pitchers, who can actually get outs. F al this talk about position players, our current situation in the field and lineup is great.
I believe this is all posturing on the agents parts (Urban, Boras). Every free agent wants Boston and New York in the mix to get more money.
Actually considering Sizemore and Beltran does not make a lot of sense for the Sox. Not because of the left handed thing because the sox did better against lefties than righties this year, go figure. But rather the cost and year commitment issues. We have Reddick and Kalish and why block both of them when in all likelihood they will both be getting better as Sizemore and Beltran are getting injured and have already peaked.
And also, Hitting was not the Sox problem, Pitching, Pitching, and more pitching.m.
That argument makes perfect sense for Beltran, not so much for Sizemore. Sizemore isn’t 30, so it’s unlikely he’s “already peaked”. He’s been on the DL the last few years as you said, and that track record is definitely going to hinder him in trying to get multiple years. Of course, if his price tag does go up to multiple years, Boston is out. But it would not surprise me if they could nab him for 1 year 5m/with incentives. It would a Beltre-esque deal, where Sizemore gets the year to prove himself again and line up for a nice payday next year if he rebounds.
I am not convinced Sizemore gives you more than Kalish. Sizemore although much more talented before injuries, he is not what he was. His 2010 numbers were not particularly pretty and didn’t he end the season on the DL? I also believe Cherrington is going to be ultra conservative in FA considering some past experiences from another GM?
Conservative in years, not in dollars. Sizemore’s a perfect low risk, high reward candidate.
I see the Sox signing him to a 1 year deal. If he performs well, he could end up as a Type A and net them 2 picks. The Sox do have a strong record doing this.
I like that thought process with the two picks.
he played 30 games last year. elias rankings are based on the previous two seasons. he won’t be a type B, let alone a type A
see josh beckett’s 2010 on why you can’t make solid projections based on performance while injured. sizemore hasn’t lost ability, he’s just been too forked up to get back on track. he showed flashes of that same ability last year
When are you switching to soxin11?
Yea, thought about that. Wish I had thought about it before I created the name.
you can just change it
I think given Sizemore’s talent level and past, past production, teams will zero in on him as a low risk/high reward type of sighing.
Because of this I can foresee a team giving Grady a 2 year deal with incentives,, but I doubt the Red sox are one of those teams.
Boston probably would be willing to give him a one year w/incentives deal though, and would likely be willing to go for a higher one-year salary than the 2 year deal would offer. It all depends on what Sizemore wants; I think it’s likely he’s trying to emulate Beltre with Boston two years ago, and thus he may even -prefer- the one year deal
I worry about the incentive deal in a 1 year contract for him though.. it might cause him to play a bit injured, hide pain etc just to get the PA’s so that he gets more money..
If you spread the incentives over 2 years, it would hopefully negate that.
Time will tell though.. I could totally see him getting a 2/8 + incentives.
tough to call it. a lot of it is going to come down to his medicals, which only the indians have seen at this point
He’s honestly probably better off with higher dollars on one year. He needs to prove he can stay on the field and having a two year deal would actually be counter-productive for him. He’ll be thirty next offseason, if he gets a one year deal right now and goes out and plays like the Sizemore of old, he’s looking at a five or six year deal. The worst thing for him would be signing a two year, short money deal and absolutely killing it this year and getting hurt again in 2013. If he signs a one year deal and bombs it, there’ll still be teams out there willing to give him a shot next year.
This one’s going to come down to dollar figure and showcase potential. If he can latch on with a likely playoff team, that’s his best bet.
admittedly don’t know a ton about the red sox line up or team but I know there has long been talk of singing Ethier after 2012.
any thoughts from BoSox fans on somebody of equal value to the organization that could fill a possible Dodgers hole in the infield?
I just don’t see it happening unless the Dodgers want a deal centered with Lowrie. The Sox have limited trade chips and my bet is all of them go towards finding pitching first.
The only reason Ethier has been mentioned in connection with the Sox is because he is friends with Pedroia; I don’t see Ethier as being a realistic fit for Boston.
that, the loss of JD Drew, the fact that Ethier is a pretty good baseball player and the Red Sox tend to like guys like that, and the fact that Ethier has made it pretty clear that he doesn’t want to be in LA
Ethier is a terrible defender, and is working his way toward becoming a perfectly mediocre overall hitter. He’s never put up more than 3.5 WAR in a season and is going to be paid way too much money.
The Red Sox need a right fielder, they don’t need Ethier. They have two guys on their roster who can play a better right field (and better overall) and be paid way less money.
I don’t get why they would want Sizemore when the motive in signing a RF and not playing Kalish and Reddick everyday is to avoid a left handed bat being in the lineup every day
The motive for not playing Reddick and Kalish everyday has more to do with:
Reddick has yet to prove he can be a full time starter. He cooled off dramatically after a hot few weeks.
Kalish lost a year of his development due to shoulder problems this year. A stopgap to give him time to get back on track would be a good idea.
We don’t NEED a right handed starter. One may be beneficial, but we’d be just as well off getting Sizemore for a year while Kalish gets back on track and finding a right handed fourth outfielder.
Angles already have a CF on Peter B. and others others who can Play 1B/DH/OF. Just sign like Pat Burrell or even Albert P. because he acn play OF.
hate you
What’s up with all the Angles posts the past few days. Did I miss another round of expansion?
Root for the right team, root for the Angles.
How Burrell lands on ANY team is beyond me…..
Sizemore’s 3-year WAR: 1.9.
Beltran’s 3-year WAR: 8.5.
Beltran is the far superior and healthier talent. He’s worth paying quite a bit more for.
If sizemore had played consistently during that period you have a point.
I’m not sure I understand your point. We should give Sizemore credit for the games he didn’t play? Even if we did, he was replacement level the last two years, so more playing time wouldn’t actually help him.
the injuries obviously affected his play..
You swing from your legs, with out a strong foundation you don’t have much of a chance up there. not to mention that sizemore will be a 1-2 year flyer where beltran is seeking 3-4 years and double the salary of sizemore.
Agreed the injuries affected his play. But I’m not sure why we should expect him to be healthier and better moving forward.
you can’t expect anything, but its a chance that any team is going to have to take that wants his ceiling..
Him vs Beltran is just 2 completely different signings, thats the only thing I was disagreeing with you on. One is going to be a 40 million dollar commitment to an aging star.. and one is going to be a 3-6 million dollar commitment for a super star who was derailed by injuries.
I don’t see what ceiling you’re projecting for Sizemore. The guy has had 5 operations in the last 3 years. He’s never again going to be the all-star caliber player that he once was. My fear is that he’s reached his ceiling of 100 games every 2 seasons, with mediocre numbers and an in ordinate number of doubles.
lots of players come back from multiple surgeries.. there were lots of people who felt dustin mcgowan would never pitch again. I’m not saying its for sure, but the skill set is still there. it could be worth a shot for a lucky team, or you could be right and he could become a complete has been
you’re omitting several factors. this isn’t just about dollars, but years. and they aren’t both in their prime – only sizemore is. beltran, who also has an injury history himself, is more than two years past his prime and will be seeking a multi-year commitment for probably twice the salary
Prime ages != prime. Sure, Beltran is likely to decline, but Sizemore is already at replacement level when he can even get on the field.
I didn’t just say “dollars per year,” though I can understand interpreting it that way. I was talking about total cost, which includes years. I’m guessing that Beltran will get something like 3/$30MM. Does that sound about right to you? For Sizemore, I’d guess only something like $5MM with another $4MM in PA incentives. So yeah, Sizemore is a LOT cheaper. But considering how much better Beltran has been, he’s more than worth the extra investment, in my opinion.
I guess what I’m saying is that Sizemore is most likely to play poorly even when he’s on the field, so him being cheap is not particularly helpful. Beltran is likely to miss some time but to play excellent all-around ball when he’s there, which makes him more than worth an extra investment.
And considering Boston’s mostly wise despite being more costly expenditure on a very similar player in J.D. Drew, it seems a better fit, to me.
“Sizemore is already at replacement level when he can even get on the field.”
there’s no strong evidence for this. what we have is a 100 games over two injured seasons. the last time he played regularly, injury-free, he put up 2 WAR in 106 games. assuming he’s healthy (whether that’s a safe assumption is a separate question), that’s where his floor appears to be. his ceiling is much higher
in light of the season beltran just had and the fact that he will not require a draft pick, i can see boras extracting 3/$36M-ish for beltran
even assuming equal salary, both players carry significant risk. in 2012, when healthy, beltran’s floor is much higher. their ceilings are about the same. but after 2012, the team is free from any risk with sizemore. with beltran, it’s committed to 2/$24 (more, if backloaded)
despite the differences in their recent histories, beltran represents much more risk by virtue of the price he’ll command. maybe you’re okay with that – that’s reasonable. but i’m looking at a 2012 club that doesn’t need offense and thus has no reason to assume such risk. a high-upside stop gap is a perfect fit for boston in 2012
The strong evidence is 100 games over two injured seasons in which he was, in fact, replacement level.
But I agree with your general point, even if we clearly value things differently. The very high floor for Beltran makes him far far less of a risk, to me. I’d prefer to invest 3/$36MM in a guy whose last good year was… last year, rather than invest a pittance in a guy whose last good year was 2008.
Boston can afford to spend $36MM spread out over three years (and backloading is BETTER, remember), and there’s no reason for them to instead save money and go with a near-sure replacement level player with the unlikely possibility of hitting the same ceiling.
that isn’t strong evidence of what a healthy performance would be like. healthy, he’s x. injured, he’s y. you have evidence for what both x and y will look like, but you have to distinguish the two. they’re signing him to be x; y is the risk
“backloading is BETTER, remember”
in general, remember. that benefit is offset by decline, which could be quite sharp in beltran’s case
“there’s no reason for them to instead save money”
really? the red sox do not have an unlimited budget and they have many needs more pressing than right field. the money saved by going with sizemore instead of beltran can be better spent on those needs
again, boston really is uniquely positioned to take on a guy like sizemore. in the event he is injured or unproductive, they have two in-house alternatives who are MLB-ready. both reddick and kalish project to be major league regulars, so long-term right field is simply not a weakness (and neither is offense, beltran’s biggest contribution). that makes a one-year commitment ideal
the reason to save money seems clear to me and pretty smart. beltran on the other hand screams unnecessary risk for a luxury they’d be perfectly fine without
Forget Beltran and Sizemore, play Reddick/Kalish, sign Edwin Jackson, let Dubront be the 5th starter, sign Ramon Hernandez to back up Salty, either resign Papi or sign Derek Lee to DH, not sure if Bard is ready to close so resign Papelbon
no
Did I just read that the Red Sox have a SS surplus?
Yeah, it’s kinda weird to read considering what is generally assumed, but in reality they have Scutaro, Lowrie, and Aviles on the major league roster, with Iglesias in AAA (not to mention several relatively promising guys below AA ball). It really is a surplus at this point.
I guess it’s just nothing I ever expected to hear is what I mean.
No, I don’t blame you. I think it’s the first time I’ve ever actually seen it printed.
No, I don’t blame you. I think it’s the first time I’ve ever actually seen it printed.
I’d rather they trade Lowrie and keep Aviles as a superutility. At this point, I think we see what we have in Lowrie. I doubt he’d net anything in a trade but he’d some add value as part of a package trade.
Here’s hoping Iglesias progresses on track.
I think that’s what you call it when you have 4 people on your active roster who could be starting shortstops..
Edwin Jackson is a classic cannot find the plate from one game to the next and would turn into another brad Penny in Boston. They do not need that guy at all. He needs to park himself on some 2nd tier NL team and stay there. If they were to sign hernandez, or pick up a DH then they would not be able to carry Ryan Lavarnway next year who has let the Sox minors in production/HR the last 3 seasons and is also a catcher, he also would be taking the place of the non hitting/throwing Jason Varitek
If the Sox sign Sizemore, most likely bye Papi and bye Kalish/Reddick
I don’t see that Sizemore would have anything to do with the Ortiz decision, and they would likely want to keep at least one of Reddick and Kalish in case Sizemore were to go down with another injury (it would also be a short term deal so they would want someone for RF if/when Sizemore left).
I just don’t see them keeping Papi with Sizemore on the team. Sizemore would most likely also DH with maybe Youk and Lavarnway. Reddick/Kalish may platoon and would most definitely be backup in RF. The other, would be part of a trade package. Papi brings in two draft picks, this team now NEEDS draft picks. The farm system has taken a hit, and I am sure Cherrington would like to improve it now.
I don’t think Sizemore would do much DHing really. I think if they were to sign him it would be with the hope that he could play in the field regularly; he’s good offensively when he’s healthy, but he’s not really DH good.
I think there will be a lot of DH rotation instead of a full time DH. Youk’s hip is only getting worse.
Yeah, I can definitely see a rotating DH in the future (in fact I’ve advocated it on here), I just think they will sign Sizemore with the intention of giving him any considerable amount of time there.
I don’t think Sizemore would do much DHing really. I think if they were to sign him it would be with the hope that he could play in the field regularly; he’s good offensively when he’s healthy, but he’s not really DH good.
It seems to me that Grady SIzemore might be too much of a liability because of injury bug; and his production does look good the past few yrs. I need to look up Carlos Beltran’s stats the last few yrs; but hasn’t he been getting hurt the last few yrs? and will cost a bit more? I looked up Josh Willingham’s stats; look good. ( I thought he was a right fielder, not left.) I wonder if he’d be cool with learning Fenway’s right field? HE could DH and had REddick/Kalish start in Right. SLugger right fielder who can DH, let Ortiz walk, save some cash…….AND THROW IT AT PITCHING! Just some thoughts. (Don’t get me wrong, I love what ORtiz has done for the Sox, but…?)
Beltran just seems like JD Drew redux and despite his potential, the Red Sox really don’t need to get involved in another oft-injured-too-many-years-aging-player.
Theo always liked those low risk / high reward signings that most think Sizemore falls into but they’re always underwhelming. I’d rather just go with Kalish (Reddick as 4th OF) and see how he fares for a couple months.