Here's a look at some news out of the AL East..
- The Rays are concentrating on upgrading at first base, DH, and landing two relievers, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post. They want to hang on to their pitching depth, but that would change if Joey Votto of the Reds became available.
- More from Sherman (via Twitter) on the Rays as he writes that the club is always open to anything, but have it in their budget to keep David Price at $4-$4.5MM as a Super Two. Price could earn $7-8MM in 2012 through arbitration according to MLBTR's projections. Sherman adds that it would take a gigantic return for them to move him.
- As expected, the Yankees intend to follow up with Freddy Garcia’s agents once more, a person with knowledge of the situation, told Marc Carig of the Newark Star-Ledger. Yankees GM Brian Cashman has already talked with Garcia’s representatives, even before the right-hander was a free agent.
- Dale Sveum is interviewing again Wednesday with the Red Sox and GM Ben Cherington is unsure if they will bring back anyone else for an interview, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today.
- Talks between the Red Sox and Cubs over compensation for Theo Epstein will continue this week but Commissioner Bud Selig is likely to settle matter, Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald tweets. Cherington says that Selig hashing things out is probably what's best for both parties.
Uhh yeah sure, the Reds are gonna trade Joey Votto to the Rays, hahahaha. The NY Post is a TABLOID, it’s written for Jr. High School dropouts that have to watch out for crack needles in their school stairwells.
“Studied at Seattle Central Community College”
k.
Im not hip to crack needles can you fill me in
Crack needles? WOW! Can’t believe how badly your ignorance is showing. Don’t have to do drugs to know they smoke crack not shoot it. What a fool.
Are you saying you DON’T use a crack needle? Clearly you aren’t part of the New York public Middle School System. Come on now..
Matt Moore and Alex Cobb for Votto?
Would that be a fair and good deal for both teams?
The Rays would be fools to trade Moore.
Tampa isn’t going to trade Moore and for SURE not David Price.
That dolt who calls himself a reporter, sherman IMO dreams up some outlandish scenario every 2-3 weeks to feed a super player some team (usually TB) cannot afford for some reason and the next week he writes some hilarious and meaningless story to get NY fans in a frenzy about how they will acquire them.. he is the national Enquirer of sports reporters if there ever was one, as in -0- credibility and full of BS.
If Tampa has ANY inclination to trade one of there rotation and NOT get back a young and PROVEN bat in return, it is going to be James Shields and NOT David price who would be the #1 on 25+ teams in the game and Tampa can control for 3 more seasons, not to mention Moore who they have been grooming a rotation spot for..
Wade Davis? Perhaps, but it would cost, same with Shields. friedman does not give people away.
People here laugh at Gammons, but the one they should use to line the doggie bed with is anything Sherman uses for print, cause that is what it’s worth is.
Hell, I’d take Matt Moore and his multiple years of team control to Joey Votto. Guy is a huge productive force at 1st but I think we wouldn’t need him as much if we have pitchers like Matt Moore playing for us. Alonso would work at 1st.
james sheilds for votto no….. matt more or jeremy hellickson for votto maybe
find a way to make sean marshall work you fools
also, james shields + hak-ju lee + alexander colome for joey votto. still works
Shields would not be a good fit in Cincinnati with his very poor road numbers.
With all this easy no-problem talk about Joey freaking Votto being trade bait Yonder Alonso better come into the majors and blow everyone out of the water
Votto should be a great leader and willing move to LF. Everyone knows that Alonso can’t play everyday in the OF. He’s probably their 2nd-5th best bat so what are they to do with him but trade him or Votto? Obviously Alonso has question marks and won’t bring a mammoth return. Votto is an elite everyday player. He’s so good that the Reds have basically said, we’re not moving him or trading him; but if the Rays say they’ll only deal their top line pitching for him, do they listen and make an offer? Everyone knows the Reds need pitching and if the can add Price or Moore plus a starter don’t they have to consider? Even for Votto.
You don’t need a top rotation in the NL Central, plus they have one of the best bullpens in baseball with Arredondo and Chapman plus their closer and setup guy. They only need a few guys who can go 5 innings and Cueto almost lead the NL in ERA, Arroyo eats innings. The team is gonna challenge for the division next year. They don’t need to trade Votto to the Rays even if it was for Longoria, and Upton.
I think you do need a rotation in the NL Central. The Cards are the Champs, the Brewers made the playoffs, the Pirates can only hit, and the Cubs are rebuilding. If the Reds could get Sheilds, Price, Hellickson, or Moore, plus a starter than why not explore? Especially if they could get two of those guys.
Moore is Strasburg good and would immediately be their best player. Him or Price would be great but I’d take Moore or Hellickson (if I had my choice). They’d pay Moore less than 500k, and if they also got Cobb they would pay him less than 500k. The Reds also would have a sick 1-2 between Moore and Cueto if they made the playoffs. With someone like Cobb plus what they already have, they would have a very formidable staff to go along with their pen. The biggest challenge for them isn’t getting the ball out of their ballpark but keeping it in. Alonso could also replace Votto; and if they really know how to deal than they can also try to swing back a corner OFer. Obviously they should ask for Jennings, but the Rays have a deep farm and have at least 1 corner OFer that could work for both teams with two SP? I’ve convinced myself that the Reds should bring the Rays some proposals.
The Rays are cheap but I think Votto like Longoria is the kind of player they’re interested in long terming. The Reds love Votto and probably won’t trade him; but I believe under their current course they’re never going to win. Maybe they should take a chance.
Tampa Bay does have good pitching, so if you want a Reds bat, nobody talks about James Shields, he is a good pitcher, we would take him for a young Reds hitter such as Heisey. There is no way the Reds are trading Votto to the Rays, TB has no such leverage. The Rays are the team that is “Never going to win” The Reds will be better than the Brewers next year and probably better than the Cardinals, who will have Mike Matheny as a rookie skipper, that means they won’t win the Division and Milwaukee is losing Fielder. The Reds, I predict, will win the NL Central.
That whole post is laughable.
think you guys would take yonder for shields ?
Pretty sure that the Reds would move Votto for Longoria. If you can get an all-world 3B with that contract for a 1B, it probably makes sense. Obviously the Rays (and any other team) would never do it.
The Rays should trade Shields for Votto. It’s a pretty even trade
That actually would be a decent trade, but as cashmoney stated previously, the Rays cannot afford to extend Votto.
Yup, the Rays are a farm team, always will be. They only UFA they sign are people like Fred McGriff, Wade Boggs, Jose Canseco, in the final year or two of their career. The team really should move to Nashville, Maybe Portland. Oh yeah, and Dwight Gooden, Carlos Pena, Tino Martinez, Johnny Damon, and Manny are their other UFA signings. Problem is that all the players mentioned were about 38 years old.
I’m sure it’s dissapointing to true Rays fans. They have better pitching than the Phillies in my opinion (when Moore is starting next season), but they have hardly anything resembling power.
They still make me extremely nervous…we’ve met them two years in a row in the ALDS and they are a scary team with that staff. Although we’ve managed to beat them both years, I never like seeing them in a 5 game series.
Is this post dated from 2005 or something?
This is a joke right? An MVP/all star 1B for a pitcher with an up and down track record?
Votto has a 19.4 WAR in 4 seasons. Shields has a 17.7 WAR in 6 seasons (On B-R). And on Fangraphs, Votto has a 22.8 WAR and Shields has a 21.0 WAR, so the difference is about equal.
And in 4 full seasons, Votto was 2nd in ROTY, on an MVP ballot in his 2nd year, the MVP and an all star in his 3rd year, and an All Star and Gold Glover this year.
Shields resume – Nothing but 1 all star appearance this year.
Sorry but if the Rays want Votto (with the Reds paying some of Votto’s contract), I’m sure they would have to start with Price or Moore.
come on, the Rays have plenty of other desirable pieces after Price and Moore that could center a trade for Votto. I agree though that a Shields-Votto swap is not the best deal the Reds could probably find for their long term interests.
I never said the Rays didn’t have the pieces. Of course they do, they have more than enough! My main point was what you said in the end. A Shields-Votto swap is flat out Ridiculous.
Apparently people do not know that Shields in his career Away has a 4.67 ERA and has a HR/9 of 1.42 Away. Now imagine him in GAB?
Also I’m sure people are unaware that Votto has a better BA, OBP and Slug% Away than at GAB.
shields+lee+colome is a sweet deal for the reds
your notes on shields’ volatility are fair, but he’s pitched 200+ innings every full season of his career, has never posted a SIERA above 4, has #1 potential that he realized last year while pitching in baseball’s toughest division, threw 4 shutouts and 11 complete games in 2011, and has a friendly contract with three club options
lee is a top 100 (at the least) shortstop prospect and colome is a top 10 organizational prospect in an org loaded with talented arms. if anything, that’s too much for two pricey season of votto. but i think it’s close to fair
I’m not familiar with Lee and Colome, but Shields for Votto straight up is flat out Lulz, and Shields would definitely pitch worse in Cincinnati at Great American than he does at the Trop. If you check the difference in his Home and Road splits, you will see.
If the Reds want to improve their rotation (by next year that is) James Shields is not the answer.
For Votto, they should ask no less for Moore or Price.
I’m sorry but you guys are acting like Shields is Halladay and Votto is Daric Barton
your entire reply is his home/road split? alrighty then
I meant if you check for yourself, I didn’t post the numbers up in that post, but if you are asking is it a big difference? Umm, yes, look at the differences and you will see he cannot pitch all that good outside of the Trop. And I think it’s fair to look at career numbers considering this guy has a track record of very good years and sub par years
ERA
Home- 3.35
Away- 4.67
FIP (for you)
Home- 3.47
Away- 4.42
BAA
Home- .246
Away- .271
HR allowed
Home- 69 in 658 innings
Away- 90 in 569 innings
i’m just surprised you think it’s a big deal, in light of all the other data. you know where he plays the vast majority of his away games (and against which offenses), right? and you know he was perfectly good away from the trop in 2011, right?
i’m not disregarding those numbers, but you seem to be weighting them really heavily if that’s your only objection here
1) most players perform better at home in general
2) every non-trop division park he plays in is both hitter-friendly and home to a strong-to-best-in-baseball lineup
to illustrate, you suggested price instead of shields. his career:
home 2.86 ERA
away 3.96 ERA
home 3.32 FIP
away 3.99 FIP
3) depsite all of that, shields was still good away from home in 2011, his breakout year
i think a better argument is that you’re skeptical of his consistency as a pitcher in general. that’s an easier case to make, at least. but even then, a move to the NL Central from the AL East is likely enough to offset whatever regression you forecast
1 – I have to disagree with this a bit. Ballparks are to be considered hitters park (Coors Field, YS) or pitchers park (Safeco, AT&T park) with a maybe a couple being neutral (Wrigley, depending on the wind). I also provided the stats on Votto showing that he hits better Away despite even him hitting in a hitters park, same for Robinson Cano. I’m not using these 2 players to make my point though, but I think it all depend on what park you play in and obviously if you’re a pitcher or hitter. I think for the most part it evens out.
2- Fair to say
3- That I am not arguing with at all, but as I said previously in my first post, he is an up and down pitcher, kind of like how Beckett has been.
you’re right about them, but those players are exceptions that prove a general rule. the important point is that we shouldn’t expect home/road splits to be identical; we should expect (in general) slight improvement at home. this isn’t theoretical; it’s the general trend around the league
so a bit of a differential is expected; when all of the away division parks are hitter-friendly and loaded-lineups, a larger differential is expected; and the most recent season shows him pitching well anyway
again, we shouldn’t disregard the trend. i just think your case should be less about home/away and more about 2010 & 2009 in general. those were not #1 (or #2) seasons. 2007 & 2008 were #2 type years and 2011 was an ace year
it seems fair to expect some regression if he stays in tampa. how much? hard to say. how much would he gain pitching against the brewers and cards instead of red sox and yankees (and pirates and cubs instead of jays and orioles)? hard to say. but i think a #2 season is very reasonable for 2012, and we know he has the potential to be a #1
on top of that, we know he’s very durable, which is a rare and valuable trait in and of itself
on this we agree: shields for votto is nonsense. but shields headlining in a deal for votto that includes the players i mentioned (or others, the rays have a lot) is among the best deals the reds could get. they don’t need a huge load of prospects – they need established frontline starting pitching (and a SS and a LF) to contend now
A #2 season is a good prediction, I’d say more so of #3, but regardless if you don’t expect an ace, you shouldn’t swap an MVP/All Star player for a #2-#3 pitcher. Yes I know you included those additional prospects but I’m more so referring to the guy who went Votto for Shields straight up.
Are the players you mentioned ML ready or no? If not, then I still say bad trade for the Reds
uh no
Maybe the Rays should focus on trading for a prospect like Alonso and keeping their staff intact? Maybe they could get him for Neimann, Cobb, or some lesser deal?
Other teams like the Padres have Rizzo, Blanks, and Guzman. If the Rays choose to seek power through a trade they might be better served than paying for Albert or Prince.
I think they should also look into trading for Guzman.
To get Alonso the Rays would have to give up something of value and the only thing the Reds would value is a top of the rotation pitcher like Shields or Price. Problem there, Alonso would not be a big enough return for either of those guys. It would have to be Alonso packaged with 2 other Reds top ten prospects in return.
I’m sort of starting to lean towards a Votto for Bautista trade, with some extras for both sides. Gets us a younger player and clears some space in the outfield.
Gosh Rays and Jays fans are dreaming, Votto for Bautista, will NEVER happen. You kids need to grow up and get realistic. Reds are going to win the NL Central, MIL is losing Fielder, and STL has a rookie skipper.
Which is why I said and extras, Reds fans we’re agreeing to that trade not too long ago. They don’t miss a beat by trading Votto for Bautista and Alonso can play 1B where he should be. Also fielder wasn’t even the Brewers MVP this year, they’ll drop off but not by much.
STL gets back an ace they won the world series without and may well keep pujols, but they lost tony la russa so they’re out? sounds legit
you do know that the Reds should be jumping for joy if they could get Bautista straight up for Votto, right?
no they shouldnt….a young votto for an old bautista,no thanks
It’s a beautiful thought but the Rays are not getting Votto, he is one of the few guys in baseball who Shields wouldn’t be enough for.
Thank you, at least someone understands that lol
Sure, but, of anybody they definitely have the pieces to get him, it just doesn’t really make sense given their modus operandi.
As I said above, I agree. They certainly do have the pieces. But James Shields and his HR/9 of 1.42 Away from the Trop, is no fit whatsoever for GAB
hey its not a sexy addition and probably isn’t any bit better than Kotsey but if James Loney is non tendered i wonder if Rays take a good look. He would be cheap, young and able to hold the position down. IDK just throwing a name out there
No way the Rays trade anything significant for Votto, they won’t even be able to afford him in 2013
Reds will not trade Joey Votto this offseason. Never gonna happen because the Reds know that they would lose their fan base. We all still remember that we traded Josh hamilton for Volquez & Daniel Ray Herrera.
Trades that make sense for both teams are as follows:
1) Yonder Alonso for James Shields (Rays unload salary while upgrading @ 1B and clear rotation spot for Moore whereas Reds get top tier SP)
2) Yonder Alonso & Yasmani Grandal for BJ Upton, Wade Davis & Alex Cobb. Along w/ Alonso, Grandal is blocked at his position here in Cincinnati and would provide TB w/ elite up and coming talent @ 1B & C. Moreover, the Reds get a right handed bat to play LF to bat between Votto & Bruce along with 2 pitchers that strengthen their depth @ SP allowing further trades of Volquez & Homer Bailey to be viable options.
As a Reds fan I don’t like either senario (trading those two doesn’t excite me), but I must say the second is realistic and help both teams. The only question is… who will play 1st base in Cincinnati in 2013?
As for Alonso for Shields, The Rays would be crazy to make that deal. They’d need more than just Alonso to make that work.
1) makes no sense at all for the Rays
2) seems to be a little too much from the Reds side, but I could be wrong.
Trading for Shields makes no sense … he is just getting expensive at the same time Votto is … same as Price is over the next 3 seasons … and the whole reason for trading Votto would be for cost. A trade with the Rays only makes sense if the Reds are getting back equal value at a lower price. A trade around Moore makes more economical than any of the established ML players being tossed about in this thread
no, that’s not the reason for trading votto. you trade votto because you can’t afford to extend him after this contract, not because you can’t afford him over the next two years. you trade him now because his value is sky high and you have enough offense but desperately need quality starting pitching
Wrong. Votto’s contract hits $17M next season. With a 80-85M payroll, that is not an amount a small market team can afford when you consider the raises in the contracts of players like Bruce & Cueto. Griffey Jrs contract hindered the Reds ability to add better players over the course of his contract as will Votto’s. Shield’s or Price’s contract demands will be no different. Its simple economics.
i wonder if we should factor in money coming off the books (about $21M) in “simple economics”
i wonder if it matters that shields’ club option is for $10M less than votto’s salary in 2013 ($3M less in 2012) in “simple economics”. or that shields has an additional affordable club option for 2014
no, you’re right. let’s keep it simple. very, very simple
Glad you aren’t my accountant … finding all this free money without taking into account just the couple of the raises I mentioned earlier … not to mention all the arb guys we have to deal with. But please, feel free to omit Phillips $5M raise also, plus the fact that a good chunk of that mysterious $21M we suddenly have will get eaten up trying to either resign our closer or another. Heck, we might as well sign CJ Wilson, Pujols & Fielder while we’re at it under your budget lol
why would i mention what you had just said? the point of the comment was to add what your “simple economics” omitted
phillips’ raise doesn’t have anything to do with 2013, which is the year you brought up. i see you aren’t even following along at this point. but for everyone else, phillips ($12M), rolen ($8M), and cairo ($1M) are $21M in savings. votto’s price goes up about $10M that year. bruce and cueto get ~4.5 in raises, leaving $5.5M for arb if they kept payroll exactly where it is
of course, the reds have increased payroll almost every season since 2004 and reported very healthy profits last year so if they’re contending in 2012 it’s unlikely that they’ll be stuck with the same budget anyway, but nevermind inconvenient facts
now onto shields, who doesn’t make sense because he’s “expensive like votto”. forget an accountant, you just need a calculator here. votto costs $30M over the next two seasons; shields costs $16M
what’s $14M in savings to a small-market club? only about 20% of the payroll. no big deal, hey? and we definitely don’t care that shields can be retained for an extra year in 2014 by an affordable club option. non-factor!
“it’s simple economics”, he says
Glad I could inspire you to expand on your xbox economics … its really ironic the length someone will go to feel like that they have to be right about everything … while I could easily pop holes in your xbox budget theory … like most arm chair gms …its not worth the effort … enjoy debating with yourself from here on out … cuz just like your last post …. I wont bother wasting me time reading fiction lol
six lines of words to say dotdotdot i have nothing to say
I was just looking at the available FAs and reached the depressing conclusion that Raul Ibanez will be a Ray in 2012.
I saw somewhere in the posts that someone thought Matt Moore and Alex Cobb where a good trade for Votto. That does sound like a good deal for either team. Two minor leagues do not equal an MVP who has yet to hit his prime. Votto had another good year which was overshadowed by a bad 2011 Reds team. Nor does it make sense to trade two VERY promising pitchers for a 1st baseman.
If I was either GM, I’d pass.
Rays totally should sign a non-tendered Dodger named James Loney.