Links for Sunday evening as the Brewers have jumped out to a 1-0 lead over the Cardinals in the NLCS..
- The Reds need to ask themselves if they believe that they can pay Joey Votto a market-value contract after 2013, writes Buster Olney of ESPN.com. If the Reds don't believe that they can pay him, Olney writes that history says that they should move him between now and July 31, 2012.
- The Red Sox could use Lars Anderson as a trade chip this offseason, writes Brian MacPherson of The Providence Journal. The 24-year-old first baseman is stuck behind Adrian Gonzalez and MacPherson identifies several teams who would be interested in the youngster. Anderson was nearly shipped to the Athletics in a deal for Rich Harden in July.
- Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times doesn't expect to see the Dodgers make many changes this winter. If Ned Colletti & Co. don't sign a bopper in free agency, that leaves trading for a big bat and the club doesn't have much to offer in return.
- Tigers closer Jose Valverde represents yet another ex-Astros player achieving success elsewhere, writes Stephen Goff of Examiner.com.
- Brewers right-hander Shaun Marcum sees a bright future for his former teammate, Cardinals lefty reliever Marc Rzepczynski. Marcum, who will start Game 2 of the NLCS on Monday, played with Rzepczynski in Toronto.
Get whatever you can for Lars, Theo… err, I mean, whoever the GM is. :/
I have to admit I missed it when Anderson became a hot trade commodity.
I wonder what his value is at this point. I don’t think he would bring back anything more than a mediocre right handed middle reliever.
Am I wrong?
No, probably not.
He brought back Rich Harden. The Red Sox nixed the deal due to medicals.
No, it was him and a PTBNL, they didn’t want to give up the PTBNL and used Harden’s medicals as a way out of the deal.
I think Lars Anderson is clearly a bust at this point….
You mean they can’t trade Casey Kelly again? Try a Leo Nunez type ruse. Might work.
How has Lars Anderson become a bust at this point when he hasn’t been given the opportunity to play with Youk being at 1st all these yrs up until this yr now that Adrian Gonzalez is there…?
by not impressing in the minor leagues…?
The new Otis Foster of the Red Sox minor leagues. All hype and no production, only Foster couldn’t field 1B very well. Jack Baker was not good with the glove either around the bag, Rocky Alburtis.. They had a lot who fell into the draft em with potential to hit for a lot and never produce littered with hype.
At this point he is a 0.260 hitter at AAA, who averages a homerun per every 10 games played… defensively he averages about an error per ever 11 games played… so, you’ll end up with someone commiting almost the same amount of errors than the homeruns he hits, wich would be ok for an average shortstop, but awful for a first baseman (the best first baseman, Texeira averages an error per every 36 games, Adrián commited the same amount in more games and more chances, though he averages less chances per game than Teixeira, making Teix the one with the better range factor… though UZR punished Teix heavily because of the lack of double plays and because fangraphs rated him worst than Adrián, which is baffling since Adrián can barely move at either side wich is noted in less chances and less plays made per inning than those made by Teix).
Texeira is the best 1st baseman? Based on errors & homeruns? Nothing else matters? Pujols, Gonzalez, Votto, & Fielder might have something to say about that.
Fielder?
“How has Lars Anderson become a bust at this point”
Simple, by having your name attached to a potential trade for Rich Harden. Says all you need to know.
I’m sorry. Are you telling me Matt Murton and Eric Patterson are busts?
I don’t see the correlation btw the two?
They were traded for Rich Harden.
being turned down for a one on one trade for Harden. Look for a PTBNL for Anderson.
Are you kidding??? he was given every opportunity to prove himself after two call ups and he did jack squat….He was supposed to be the 1B DH of the future for the red sox…Even with A-Gon there, the sox would be so happy to replace Papi with him and get younger
Wonder what it would take to get Votto from the Reds; Ethier, Eovaldi and maybe Chris Withrow or a similar pitching prospect? I’d do it, given that Votto is signed through 2013. Eovaldi I’d hate to give up, but would do it given the pitching depth in the Dodger system; Ethier is the type of player to be dealt before reaching his 30s, is about to be overpaid, and has begun to show a growing propensity for getting dinged up. Ethier shouldn’t be resigned, so is gone after 2012 anyway if the Dodgers are smart, so you’re basically giving up Eovalid and (say) Withrow for an additional year (at least, if you don’t resign him – and you should immediately) of Votto. I think that’s worth it.
no way the reds would do that…why would they want eithier? any talks with the dodgers would have to start with zach lee
Agreed with Baconz. Our position of need is LF and SP. You have Kemp and Kershaw. Let’s work something out.
If the Dodgers are trading for Votto, than they are trying to compete now. If you trade away Kemp or Kershaw, that’s a pretty good way to hurt the team in the present, not help it.
Leaves the Dodgers short at least one starting outfielder, but who’s counting? Next suggestion: how they can plug those gaps with minor leaguers and scrap-heap journeyman and call it an improvement.
i think you can re-sign Rivera & Loney and have an outfield of Sands/Rivera, Kemp, & Loney. Especially w/ Votto at 1B.
First off, Loney doesn’t need to be re-signed since he’s under team control. Second, he has played exactly three games in the outfield in the majors and not much more outfield in the minors. You might as well have him pitch. Third, Rivera is just the sort of scrap-heap journeyman I was talking about. He played well for the Dodgers last year but pencilling him into a starting lineup next year is not a plan but a desperate measure. Finally Sands is still unproven, but we’re probably going to see him anyway. Big trades don’t make sense when they create more holes than they fill.
I wouldn’t mind Rivera coming back. Especially as a Platoon w/ Sands who isn’lt quite ready. Sure, he over played this year, but there are going to be holes in this lineup no matter what.
and in 1 of the 3 games James took one off the face….lol
There are more than a few one or two year deal options for outfielders that will be nearly as productive as Ethier and cost less; Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer (who also would give depth at 2b)…you could even offer Carlos Beltran a two or three year deal at $8-10mm per and not lose too much sleep over playing him in left. Assume the Dodgers could do Ethier/Eovaldi/Withrow (I don’t think Lee is being dealt, and can assure you that neither of Kemp or Kershaw are) for Votto and sign Beltran for 2/$20mm:
1. Gordon (ss) ($420,000)
2. Beltran (lf) ($10,000,000)
3. Kemp (cf) ($13,000,000)
4. Votto (1b) ($9,500,000)
5. Sands (rf) ($420,000)
6. Uribe (3b) ($8,000,000)(ugh)
7. Ellis (c) ($435,000)
8. Sellers/DeJesus ($420,000)
You either nontender Loney or have him start three days a week (twice in the OF spelling Sands and Beltran and once at 1b to spell Votto) and hope you can trade him. You’re working with an active roster payroll of about $88mm, so a normal Dodger team could take a swing at CC if he opts out, but we’re more likely to see Kuroda come back for one more year or sign a retread with hope like Harden or Javy Vazquez (which I’d like to see anyway – Vazquez was lights out during the second half and would be fierce in Chavez Ravine).
Your plan sounds better than trying to stick Loney in the outfield, but it does rely on signing a retread outfielder — and at half of what he’s currently paid besides. I don’t get much into figuring out what a team should be spending if only because I’m not privy to their budgeting, but for that matter Rivera would fit the same bill for less dollars than Beltran. Anyhow, I’m about 100% convinced that Ethier will be back. Coming off an injury and arbitration eligible he’s got little trade value, but if he returns to pre-injuries form he’s certainly capable of being an impact player. I wouldn’t scramble everything up just to find a way to move him. We’re already having to put a lot of stock into Sands. If he doesn’t make good progress the rest of the exercise is academic.
Is Beltran really a retread? He had the 9th best OPS among all MLB outfielders during 2011 (I was surprised as well), putting up a .910 ops and playing 142 games. Spot him to 140 for next year and he’s an ideal batter for that lineup, which figures to be OBP challenged outside of Kemp.
He is arguably one of the better retreads available, but still a stopgap and not a real solution IMO. If the Dodgers could sign him for a year, maybe two, I’d say do it and use him in left instead of Sands, not as a replacement for Ethier. That could be a very productive outfield.
I’d agree with this at the very least – Beltran/Kemp/Ethier in the OF, with Sands getting two starts a week spelling Andre and Beltran, plus another one or two at first base spelling Loney? I’d dig that.
1. Gordon (ss)
2. Beltran (lf)
3. Kemp (cf)
4. Ethier (rf)
5. Loney/Sands (1b)
6. Uribe (3b)
7. Ellis (c)
8. Sellers/DeJesus (2b)
1. Kershaw
2. Billingsley
3. Lilly
4. Kuroda or Eovaldi
5. Eovaldi or Pitching Retread #7
I’d agree with this at the very least – Beltran/Kemp/Ethier in the OF, with Sands getting two starts a week spelling Andre and Beltran, plus another one or two at first base spelling Loney? I’d dig that.
1. Gordon (ss)
2. Beltran (lf)
3. Kemp (cf)
4. Ethier (rf)
5. Loney/Sands (1b)
6. Uribe (3b)
7. Ellis (c)
8. Sellers/DeJesus (2b)
1. Kershaw
2. Billingsley
3. Lilly
4. Kuroda or Eovaldi
5. Eovaldi or Pitching Retread #7
this sounds like a Christmas list dude.
first of all, and i’m not totally 100% up to speed on Dodgers’ operations and finances, but there isn’t a chance in hell that they’re taking on Beltran AND trading for Votto AND keeping/extending Kershaw & Kemp. do they even have the money? there isn’t a chance in hell that Cincinnati even takes that trade when they could get more elsewhere.
you lost me completely when you suggested signing CC.
From a dollar perspective, you’re essentially netting out on the spend even with signing Beltran – Ethier is going to make 9-11mm via arbitration this year and they’re cutting a ton of salary loose, even considering extensions (hopefully) for Kemp and Kershaw.
RE: CC, note that I said “a normal Dodger team” – given the ownership situation this is not “normal”.
Salary cuts:
Kuroda – 10mm.
Broxton – 7mm.
Rivera – 5.25mm
Barajas – 3.25mm.
Carroll – 2.3mm.
Padilla – 2.0mm.
That’s nearly 30mm in salary off the roster.
The team is under the conservatorship of MLB, which guarantees player salaries. How much the team has to spend this offseason is a bit of a mystery but I think it’s clear that MLB’s purpose in operating team is maintaining the value of the franchise, and starving it doesn’t fit with that goal. Everyone should understand that the Dodger are not inherently bankrupt, and that under new ownership and media contract could easily be a profitable $150m salary team.
it guarantees CURRENT players salaries….I doubt it will cover this seasons new signings if they cause the team payroll to exceed what they have now….
That is true until Jaime takes half his $$$ and that is the reason Selig is blocking the Fox tv deal….if he signs a deal prior to the divorce and the team hasn’t been determined who is the “owner” that means the tv deal could end up funding his divorce more then the team…w/ all the BK talk everyone seems to forget Jaime is still trying to take the team…of get a HUGE A$$ buy out
MLB will not under any circumstances allow players to not be paid. I’m sure that’s engraved in stone somewhere, probably in the contract with the union. There’s also no reason whatsoever to think that MLB has put any ceiling on the Dodger’s team salary.
MLB will not under any circumstances allow players to not be paid. I’m sure that’s engraved in stone somewhere, probably in the contract with the union. There’s also no reason whatsoever to think that MLB has put any ceiling on the Dodger’s team salary.
Votto to the Nationals might make some sense. A package including their young 1B Marrero and Drew Storen would make a whole lot of sense to me. Votto,Zimmerman,Harper and umm, Werth would be a pretty potent little offense.
Why would we (Reds) want ANOTHER 1B prospect? We already have Votto, Yonder Alonso, and Danny Dorn. If Votto leaves, 1B is Alonso’s job to lose. Looking at how Alonso hit this year at MLB without having a consistent position, he won’t be going anywhere anytime soon.
If TB could figure out how to fit Votto’s salary onto the team, dealing him for some of their pitching is a good fit. TB needs offense, Votto’s a heck of a hitter and Cincy wouldn’t have to face him regularly in the AL.
Totally doesn’t fit there way of doing things though. It would just leave them with nothing in two seasons. That is not the sustainable process they employ.
not so sure about that
shields makes $7M next year; upton around $5M. if shields+a SS or OF brings back votto and upton gets changed in for a prospect, they’ve saved around $3M in 2012
in 2013 he’s got an extra $8M to account for, but that hardly breaks their bank and he’s a lineup-changing MVP candidate
Interesting thought. A couple things I might say though:
1) I don’t think that is enough for Votto.
2) I wasn’t as much concerned about the money that the Rays could or couldn’t afford this season and next. I thought that it didn’t fit with their MO in that I think Friedman has decided he needs to unload really good players near free agency for as much young talent as possible in order to keep the farm super-stocked. To be the competitive the Rays need to be able to keep bringing up players like Jennings, Hellickson, Price, etc. In order to do that repeatedly you need to keep restocking the farm.
1) i can’t read jocketty’s mind, but shields is a #1 starter from the AL East with up to 4 years of affordable (except to the rays) control left. votto is an MVP, but he’s only got two years left and not at a great discount. if the supplemental player(s) with shields are good enough – the reds really need a SS or a LF – i think it’s about as close to equal value as two teams can get
important to note that the reds aren’t looking to rebuild. getting back an established top starter would be way better than just a prospect haul in terms of their current time preference
2) that’s sort of true, although they didn’t unload e.g. carl crawford or rafael soriano. friedman doesn’t unload talent that’s useful to a contending team, which votto absolutely would be. two years of a bat that can totally change that lineup (and he’s also a good defender), and then collect the 2 picks in 2014
friedman’s better at this than i am, so maybe there are reasons dfor them to rule it out. but at first glance, it looks viable to me
cf – jennings
2b – zobrist
1b – votto
3b – longoria
rf – joyce
lf – guyer
dh – batman
c – lobaton
ss – brignac
price
hellickson
moore
davis
niemann
do not want (to play against)
Stat-wise, Lars Anderson looks like a Casey Kotchman clone with less contact. Can he at least play good defense? I can’t picture a weak hitting 1b bringing back much of a haul. Harden wasn’t going to be a huge improvement, or any improvement, really, at this stage of his career he’s just a body, and a body that gets hurt almost every month.
The Kotchman comparison is dead on in my opinion. Well done.
Lars averages 1 error per every 10 games… now keep in mind that Kotchman averaged 0.268 in BAbip, and this year he had a 0.335 BAbip, contributing heavily to his +0.330 most of the season, when his BAbip dropped from 0.360 to 0.335, his batting average dropped to 0.306 (final stat), so, unless he puts up another +0.330 BAbip, i don’t see him batting above 0.300 in 2012… and i think he’ll experiment a regression to his lifetime BAbip average.
who talks about BABIP but doesn’t talk about OBP, which is a trillion times more important than batting average and is anderson’s strength? anderson had a 14% walk-rate in AAA this year
the only thing missing from his game is power, and unfortunately for him that’s a bit of a dealbreaker for everyone not named billy beane
Yeah, I actually think Anderson could be more valuable than people are giving him credit for (though I still don’t think he’s terribly valuable); I could see him becoming a Youkilis (a la 2007), or what people thought Barton could be, type of first baseman.
The Oakland A’s are ranked 4th in the AL behind the Yanks, Sox and Rays over the last 5 years in team BB%. Let that soak in. They are also 12th out of 14 in team OBP over the same 5 year period. Why? Because they are dead last in team batting avg over the same period as well. Drawing walks is very important but can we PLEASE stop acting as if the ability to hit for average is not just as important please?
Bat avg is NOT the best way to evaluate a hitter but diminishing the ability to hit for average has become perhaps the greatest travesty of the “money ball era”.
Also, drawing 12% walks in AAA is a good thing but in the majors he will face pitchers with a much better command of the strike zone and if he can’t hit for avg in AAA then he probably won’t hit for avg in the majors and if he isn’t drawing as many walks in the majors (because pitchers are throwing strikes) then his OBP will be less than it has been in AAA.
“can we PLEASE stop acting as if the ability to hit for average is not just as important please?”
no. because it isn’t. not complicated: high OBP without high average? valuable. high average without high OBP? not valuable. analysis complete
cutesy to be like “well we’ll see if he can walk so much against better pitching” as if that doesn’t apply tenfold to every guy who hits .330 in the minors. yes, it’s harder to a productive hitter against better pitching. the point was/is that hitting for average is not the only (or necessarily the best) way to be a productive hitter
what you seem to be driving at is that walk-rate is not massively more important than average, but no one disagrees with that. it’s a more reliable way to get to a high OBP, but it’s the end (OBP) itself that is paramount – not the means
Anyway the Jays can get Votto without including D’arnaud?
Reds already have two top catching prospects, I think they would want pitching, more pitching, and, maybe an infielder.
Right. I wonder which pitchers the Reds might have their eyes on. Presumably they would want at least two of Alvarez, Hutchinson, and/or McGuire.
Jose Bautista for Votto straight up. Seriously. Votto moves back to his hometown, Toronto gets a perennial All-Star, the Reds get a power-hitting LF’er to pair with Bruce and Stubbs or Heisey. The Reds do not need another catching prospect. In 2012 we’ll have Hanigan (MLB), Mesoraco (MLB), Grandal (AAA), and Tucker Barnhart (A). Barnhart was the ONLY catcher selected in the MiLB for the Rawlings Gold Glove. We’re stacked when it comes to catchers.
Ya there is no way that happens. Besides Bautista being better, his contract is a lot nicer.
i was about to bet the world that you are a Reds fan. then i read “we’re stacked when it comes to catchers” and it was confirmed.
there is absolutely zero reason why this trade would ever happen. Bautista is better and cheaper, and despite Votto seeming like a good guy, i’d bet that Bautista is a better clubhouse presence. keep dreaming.
Congrats, dude. You successfully nailed my fanboy-ism. I’m a Reds fan. That being said, there were pretty rampant rumors of a potential Votto/Bautista trade around this year’s deadline and the Blue Jay’s had scouts looking at Daniel Corcino, one of our better MiLB pitchers.
And WTF does, “i was about to bet the world that you are a Reds fan. then i read “we’re stacked when it comes to catchers” and it was confirmed.” even mean? The Reds ARE stacked when it comes to catchers, I fail to see how anyone can debunk that. Tucker Barnhart was the ONLY catcher in all of MiLB to receive a gold-glove for his position. Out of a lot of MiLB players, that’s pretty impressive. Not to mention Devon Mesoraco is a Top-5 prospect in all of baseball. Personally, I think you’re just kinda dumb.
lol, or maybe i know the Reds are stacked at C, and therefore could confirm you were a Reds fan since you said “WE” are stacked. also, if the Blue Jays are scouting one of your prospects for a trade, that wouldn’t exactly be a “Bautista for Votto straight up” trade, would it?
personally, i think you’re kinda dumb.
So this is just trade speculation, I have never heard or seen this anywhere so I am just going off of what I think might work.
However could you see the Giants trading lincecum for votto? Personally I feel like Lincecum will tail off eventually because of his delivery, however could you see them building a package around these 2 and the reds/giants agreeing on a trade? The giants need offense badly and have pitching to spare and the reds could relaly benefit from lincecum.
The Reds aren’t going to trade someone about to make a ton of money to acquire someone. . . about to make a ton of money.
Right but it depends on what they would rather allocate their money to. Do they want to overpay for votto when they have a replacement right there? Or do they want to pay a smilir price for an ace pitcher which they do not have.
Id rather let Ramon Hernandez be dealt to the Giants. Im not sure of Buster Posey’s timetable to return/be back to full-health, but a veteran backstop with good stats could certainly help shore up the Giants lineup.
“The Red Sox could use Lars Anderson as a trade chip this offseason, writes Brian MacPherson of The Providence Journal. The 24-year-old first baseman is stuck behindAdrian Gonzalez and MacPherson identifies several teams who would be interested in the youngster. Anderson was nearly shipped to the Athletics in a deal for Rich Harden in July.”
Now that’s what I call value..
Yeah it was reported that teams were offering a bag of batting practice balls and two fungo bats for him.
the jays aquiring votto would almost certainly involve D’arnaud…even if he doesn’t go directly to CIN we could easily involve a 3rd team with catching needs. that’s not a stretch.
the one guy i’d absolutely refuse to part with is Alvarez. deal breaker right there.
the votto for bautista trade is dumb for several reasons. while they are comparable talents jose is signed long term (5 more years) at a reasonable 13M per while Votto is only under contract for 2 more years and then you could be looking at paying him double what Jose makes. Jose’s value is through the roof…not only is he the undisputed leader of the jays and arguably the best all around player in baseball but his pricetag makes him unbelievably valuable and darn near untradeable.
every fan wants votto for their team should be interesting to see what happens. my guess is that if CIN doesn’t get off to a fast start in 2012 he’ll be shipped at the trade deadline…
to Toronto!
Bautista is not that much better than Votto….. but yes that would not be a bad trade straight up.
I would rather it be Votto to TB for Shields, Hellickson and Cobb. Maybe the Reds throw in Volquez and/or Wood.
I hate to lose Votto and his .383 BA with RISP…. but Reds starters are a bunch of #3/4’s…besides Cueto, who is about a #2, who could be a #1.
Might as well just keep playing Fantasy trade baseball…. Votto, Volquez, Nick Masset and Yasmin Grandal to TB for Shields, Hellickson, Cobb, Brandon Gomes and Tim Beckham (SS in AAA)
I really dont see the rays going for votto, he is going to demand a lot of money and they will not want to pay that, plain and simple. The rays would be better suited going for michael morse.
votto doesn’t get to demand anything until 2014, and they’ll just take the draft picks when that time comes
there may be better candidates for tampa, but votto isn’t a bad one. can they get more for shields by going the prospect haul route? theoretically. but they are in competition mode right now and are not short of prospects by any stretch. what they are short on is offense