Once the Orioles sort out the uncertainty in their front office, they'll have to improve a disappointing rotation and add balance to their promising lineup.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Nick Markakis, OF: $43.23MM through 2014
- J.J. Hardy, SS: $22.25MM through 2014
- Brian Roberts, 2B: $20MM through 2013
- Mark Reynolds, 3B: $8.33MM through 2012
- Kevin Gregg, RP: $5.8MM through 2012
Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)
- Jo-Jo Reyes, SP: $1.5MM (non-tender candidate)
- Brad Bergesen, SP: $1.4MM (may miss super two cutoff)
- Alfredo Simon, RP: $1.3MM (may miss super two cutoff)
- Jeremy Accardo, RP: $1.3MM (non-tender candidate)
- Willie Eyre, RP: $700K (non-tender candidate)
- Robert Andino, UT IF: $1.2MM
- Adam Jones, OF: $6.6MM
- Jim Johnson, RP: 2.0MM
- Jeremy Guthrie, SP: $8.2MM
- Luke Scott, OF/DH: $6.4MM
Free Agents
- Vladimir Guerrero (Type B DH), Cesar Izturis (unranked IF)
The Orioles' next GM has one of the toughest assignments in baseball: pass the up-and-coming Blue Jays, the deep-pocketed Red Sox, the perennially competitive Rays and the powerhouse Yankees. This job will take more than one year.
At this point, it's not clear who will be leading the Orioles' baseball operations department going forward. President of baseball operations Andy MacPhail has stepped aside, so Baltimore will search for a new general manager. We do know manager Buck Showalter will remain in the dugout next year.
It will take a skilled general manager with a long-term vision to mold the Orioles into a contender. They are short on pitching and entered the season with the weakest farm system in the division, according to Baseball America. The Rays provide hope, since they have three playoff berths in the past four years despite having a lower payroll than the Orioles and a far worse stadium. Success on a budget is possible in the AL East, but even MacPhail couldn't turn the franchise into a contender.
The Orioles experienced many disappointments in 2011 and the biggest letdown of all occurred in the starting rotation, where young, promising pitchers failed to develop as swiftly as expected. Baltimore finished last in MLB in rotation ERA (5.39), innings (881) and quality starts (60) and they weren't particularly close to the 29th ranked team in any of those categories.
Brian Matusz had a 10.69 ERA in 12 starts; Jake Arrieta struggled, then underwent elbow surgery in August; Chris Tillman's season stats were disappointing; Zach Britton had an up-and-down season. The Orioles need better pitching in 2012 and they're in a difficult position since they can't rely on their young starters, but it's too early to give up on them.
Though Jeremy Guthrie led the league in losses again, he was a steady presence in the rotation. His durability (three consecutive years of 200+ innings) sets him up for a generous arbitration payday of $8MM or more. He's eligible for free agency after 2012 and could be trade bait this winter. If the Orioles part with the durable 32-year-old without getting pitching back, their rotation will look even thinner. Along with Matusz, Arrieta, Tillman, and Britton, pitchers Tommy Hunter and Brad Bergesen are internal candidates to start in 2012.
The Orioles will likely pursue starting pitching in trades and on the free agent market this offseason. Free agent C.J. Wilson would have appeal, though squeezing his salary into the payroll won't necessarily be easy. Assuming the front office brings back Jones, Johnson, Guthrie, Bergesen, Simon and Andino through arbitration, the Orioles will have about $64MM in commitments for 2012 (a figure that doesn't account for minimum salary players). They've worked with payrolls of $74MM and $87MM in the past two seasons, so they figure to have $10-25MM to spend, depending on how much owner Peter Angelos has budgeted.
Wilson isn't the only prominent free agent who could fill a void for the Orioles. Prince Fielder would instantly become the team's best hitter and strengthen an offense that finished seventh in the American League with 708 runs scored. The Orioles would have to commit $100MM to a player for the first time in franchise history and surrender their second-round draft pick in 2012 to obtain Fielder.
Baltimore's first base plan will also affect the future of Mark Reynolds, who may be better off at first or DH than at third. Chris Davis is another free swinger who played both corner infield positions down the stretch and may start in 2012.
Vladimir Guerrero probably won't be back and it seems unlikely that the Orioles will offer arbitration after his so-so season. Luke Scott, another DH option, missed the final two and a half months of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery. He's a non-tender candidate, but the Orioles figure to have interest in retaining him on a one-year deal if his recovery goes well. Nolan Reimold has earned consideration in left field, Scott's primary defensive position, after posting a .973 OPS in September. The Orioles will also have to determine how many roster spots they can devote to powerful hitters who strike out a lot and don't play premium positions such as Scott, Davis and Reynolds.
Brian Roberts' injuries make second base difficult to project (Roberts is now recovering from a concussion). Robert Andino filled in admirably in 2011 and he'll be back next year, possibly with 24-year-old Ryan Adams, another candidate to play the position. The Orioles can't be expecting much from Roberts, who has played just 98 games in the past two seasons.
Four position players – J.J. Hardy, Nick Markakis, Adam Jones and Matt Wieters — form the Orioles' unofficial core, as they're all under control through 2013 or beyond. It won't be surprising if Baltimore explores extensions for Jones and Wieters at some point in the offseason. There figures to be more urgency to lock up Jones, who would be eligible for free agency after 2013.
There's work to be done in the bullpen, where Jim Johnson's standout season helped mask Kevin Gregg's disappointing one. Both are likely back in the bullpen next year, although there has been talk about making Johnson a starter. Other holdovers include Jason Berken, Chris Jakubauskas, Clay Rapada, Alfredo Simon, Troy Patton, Pedro Strop and non-tender candidates Jo-Jo Reyes, Jeremy Accardo and Willie Eyre.
From a statistical standpoint, the Orioles had a below-average bullpen this year, but no manager relied on his relievers more than Showalter, who needed 565 2/3 innings of relief because of the rotation's struggles. An improved rotation would lessen the strain on the bullpen in 2012. The Orioles have spent on relievers in recent years (including some regrettable deals) and it makes sense for them to restore bullpen depth and add relievers this offseason.
For the Orioles to progress, their rotation has to improve significantly. Baltimore figures to be in the market for starters and relievers this offseason as they look to improve upon the disappointment of 2011. They need position players, too, and could shop for help at first base, DH and left field and move the likes of Davis and Reynolds around depending on who they obtain. But offseason acquisitions can only do so much for the Orioles, who need to see their homegrown pitchers evolve from prospects to contributors if they are to start their ascent in the American League East.
Nice analysis Ben. Honestly, I think the team is closer to competing than many think. I know that’s been a common thought among O’s fans recently but I look at it this way:
The offense was relatively decent despite starting guys like Andino, Davis, Fox (for part of the year), Scott (with a torn labrum), lee, etc. I think a realistic timeline to compete is 2014 when Machado, Schoop, Klien (if his shoulder heals), Bundy, etc will be MLB ready (or close). I hate to say this but I know Roberts isn’t a part of the future, and Markakis may not either. I know this is an excercise in futility, but I’ll throw out a potential lineup / rotation for 2014 (which I acknowledge is incredibly pointless, however this is how I cope. Don’t you judge me).
C – Wieters
1B – Reynolds
2B – Hardy
3B – Schoop
SS – Machado
LF – Reimold
CF – Jones
RF – Markakis
SP – Bundy
SP – Matusz
SP – Britton
SP – Arrieta
SP – Tillman
SU – Johnson
CL – Klein (again a HUGE if)
Oh here we again, someone not showing any love for Andino
And Bundy as our # 1? Who’s the pitching coach that’s going to develop this kid?
He might be good, but he’s not Kershaw. Schoop as third base that should be interesting, I don’t think he has the power for 3rd base. Also, I am curious who’s going to help Reimold with his defense?
Shaking my head with all the wishing going on there, but hey as I said before I am not always right and maybe you are in this case….
I have love for Andino. He’s a great utility guy, just not a starter.
Yes. Bundy profiles as a #1. Without a doubt. Maybe not in 2014 but he has that potential.
Schoop definitely has the power for third from what most scouts are saying.Reimold is not an ideal LF but this is the real world and I can’t just put Justin Upton there hoping we trade for him.
As I said above, this is all heavily based in speculation and hopes/dreams. I think the team has potential (there’s still growth for Matusz, Tillman, Wieters, Britton, Jones, etc). I don’t think this is unrealistic, and sure it assumes guys reach their potential but isn’t that what everyone wants (even if it’s not 100% realistic)?
Andino is Util. If he starts next year we have serious problems.
Tillman is in that rotation and not Britton? I think Britton is the only one who has a decent chance of being there in 2014, honestly. I don’t see us _competing_ in the next 3 to 5 years, but a run at .500 would be nice.
Britton should be third. I was blanking on his name for some reason. That’s my bad.
While I don’t know how much we can get for Markakis’ on his contract trading him this offseason needs to be considered. Maybe he gains more than gap power, but probably not. If they can get a near ready pitching prospect and a young OF type it may be worth it.
Just throwing out a completely random idea, as it is the most fun thing to do on this website, but maybe Geraldo Parra and Tyler Skaggs for Markakis? DBacks can move Nick or Upton to LF.
If the Nats offered you Espinosa, Marrero and Lannen, would you take it?
that would be kind of dumb for both teams, considering lannan is meh, espinosa is unfortunately in a spot we already owe money, and he is another high K, low OBP guy with power. And for the nats I think they are looking for a CF, as the other two positions are spoken for for the next 6 years
Yes, I’d even due Markakis for Espinosa straight up. Though I would try to haggle for a young reliever like Rodriquez in addition.
No. Just no.
Are we trying to set a record for strikeouts by an infield? 200+ each from Reynolds and Davis and another 160+ from Espinosa. Hardy might be the only saving grace there.
I wouldn’t mind trading Markakis, but this winter isn’t the time to do it. No one is going to trade much of anything for a .280 hitter who doesn’t hit for much power or steal many bases. Especially since that guy is guaranteed $44MM over the next four seasons.
Let’s hope that Nick bounces back to at least an .800 OPS in 2012, or that he starts off real hot and can bring in a nice haul at the trade deadline.
Interesting would you trade me a diamond for the hunk of grass I just picked out of the ground?
no dandelion no deal
While I don’t know how much we can get for Markakis’ on his contract trading him this offseason needs to be considered. Maybe he gains more than gap power, but probably not. If they can get a near ready pitching prospect and a young OF type it may be worth it.
Just throwing out a completely random idea, as it is the most fun thing to do on this website, but maybe Geraldo Parra and Tyler Skaggs for Markakis? DBacks can move Nick or Upton to LF.
They need to get some better contact/ walk rate guys. They hit a shitload of HR but no one is ever on base.
And whoever comes in better not waste more money on relievers. As seen in Zona this year, you can improve a bullpen in a hurry if you are actually a decent team. Wasting money on a reliever again would be asinine. Berken, Johnson, Gregg, Schoop, Bergy, Tillman, and Patton are enough for now.
I agree with your ideas about the bullpen to a point. I feel you need to have a solid, dependable closer at the end to anchor the pen. While I feel closers in general are a bit overvalued, I feel it is important for a team to have that 1 reliever they no they can count on, the one given that you don’t need to worry about. That may you can mix and match your other relievers into roles that fit their strengths. For teams like Boston, Texas, or the Yankees, a closer is less importanct because they have depth in the bullpen with relievers who are established. The Orioles have bodies, but not depth. I have no faith in Gregg and I would rather not have Johnson close (I can’t explain why, I just don’t see him as being a shut down type reliever). I would like to see them bring in someone like Heath Bell (a second tier guy, without a history of injuries) who you know what he is going to give you.
It will be a buyer’s market for closers this year. I just hope they go after someone reliable like a Bell instead of the occassionally good, injury prone, or getting it down with smoke and mirrors type closers they’ve brought in the last few years (like Gonzalez, Gregg, Uehara, Baez, etc.).
disagree, jim johnson is straight up dirty nasty. And the only thing that is a bad thing is is K%, but that should return back to normal as his Sw-Str% is around the same. And my point is rather they should spend on a closer when they are closer to the competition. joakim soria did nothing for the royals’ except give them a slightly worse draft pick every year.
Uehara was actually really good. The rest of them sucked though. Gonzo did get lefties out though, I’ll give him that. And I’ll never forget that one game he had against the White Sox in May.
Aroldis Chapman and Yonder Alonso to Baltimore
Matusz and Nick Markakis to Cincinnati
Won’t happen for a variety of reasons.
I’m curious why?
Reason #1: Markakis and Matusz are both coming off career worst seasons.
Reason #2: Markakis is guaranteed $44MM over the next four seasons. The Reds aren’t a big market team, and they’re probably more interested in hanging on to Joey Votto than paying big money for a .280 hitter with little power and not much speed.
Reason #3: Alonso is most likely the backup plan if the Reds can’t keep Votto. If they trade Votto before he gets real expensive ($17MM in 2013), they’ll move Alonso back to first base.
Reason #4: They’ve invested a lot of money in Chapman as well. And, at this point, he’s got much more potential than Matusz.
Is that enough?
haha i wish
Thanks for the laugh, fella.
I’d even re-sign Izturis to throw him in to the trade.
I’d even re-sign Izturis to throw him in to the trade.
As much as I’d love for that trade to happen… no.
A lot of kool aid drinking going on in here. Fact is the orioles are atrocious. They stink on offense, they stink on defense, and their pitching is an embarrassment. Matusz looks like Olson reincarnate, Tillman is batting practice fodder, and Arrieta can’t throw strikes. Their international scouting efforts are a joke, their farm system is a perpetual wasteland, and no free agent worth anything will come to Baltimore.
Playoffs? Wildcard? Too funny
if you think 99% of free-agents are after anything more than $, your crazy
And that’s why no free agent worth anything will ever come to Baltimore.
Even since the O’s got burned by Albert Belle’s bum hip, they haven’t been willing to spend on top free agents – the one exception being Miguel Tejada in 2004. Since then, they’ve never been the team to offer the most money and when guys sign elsewhere, they wonder why.
I actually like the Orioles bullpen for next year if they can manage to get rid of Kevin Gregg. Jim Johnson could be a very good closer. Doesn’t have a sexy strikeout rate (5.74 per 9 innings), but his 61.5 GB% (groundball percentage) is tailor made for success at a park like Camden Yards. Pedro Strop has the stuff to be a solid setup man. Alfredo Simon belongs in the pen, and should be a reliable middle reliever. Patton looked solid in the pen, could also become a starter too. Bergesen is fine for a long reliever. Phillips is a lefty who can actually pitch respectably against righties (small sample size). Maybe sign a few low-risk high-reward guys like Joel Zumaya.
For second base, the Orioles could look at Kelly Johnson or Aaron Hill. Johnson will be the more ideal fit since the Orioles do need some left handed bats. Chris Davis and Andino can platoon at third.
Here’s what happens.
Orioles sign:
Prince Fielder at 7 yrs/$122mm
C.J Wilson at 3yrs/ $31mm
Trade for Kelly Johnson (Roberts comes back thats a bonus.)
IF The young pitchers can return to form. would = Chance of wild card birth.
BECUASE
C.C is leaving NY, Rangers have already said there after him, and will throw him ”stupid money” why would he stay- No supporting cast, and old team that got knocked out of the playoffs. The red sox are going to have a real bad year trust me, Beckett will be traded. Thats leaves lester? come on. Ortiz is already saying ”SIGN ME YANKEES!”. Then youve got Ellusibury and A.G. The whole rest of the lineup is a ”?”.
i like it, but maybe you are a tad too optimistic.
you really think wilson would sign for only $31 mil?? that’s crazy
Thats 11 Million/per with Incentives? for 3 years. He isnt gonna find a better offer. Plus he like B more and showwalter.
As the Oriolio’s get worse and worse and the Nats get better and better … it’ll be interesting to see what Angelos does or does not do. As it is his new GM looks pretty lame. Showalter would have been better but I guess he’ll have a say on talent from the dugout.
Me thinks the O’s are in deep, deep trouble. No, they are not like Tampa Bay with the best farm system in all of baseball …. lots of young starting pitchers to replace the guys they trade as they become too expensive. It really starts there. The Rays lineup keeps getting weaker as a result but … they can use the older more experienced and expensive pitching to trade for near major-league ready prospects to fill those holes.
The Orioles have very little to bargain with … and with the Nats now providing real competition for popularity and ticket sales, playing traditional non-DH baseball?
Looks like lose, lose, lose at Camden Yahds.
But B’more does still have the Ravens … 😉