The Rangers on are the verge of winning their second American League pennant in as many years, and after the season they'll have to deal with the free agency of ace C.J. Wilson. A number of important players, like Nelson Cruz and Mike Napoli, are set to earn substantial raises through arbitration, as is Elvis Andrus.
Andrus, 23, just completed his third season in the big leagues and will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter. He's a defense-first shortstop but also offers some offense. He's hit just 11 homers in three years but has stolen no fewer than 32 bases each season. He makes enough contact (.272 AVG last two years) and draws enough walks (.345 OBP) to ensure he can use his speed. UZR loves his glovework, rating him the fifth best defensive shortstop since he broke into the league.
The Rangers signed Ian Kinsler, Andrus' double play partner, to a five-year contract worth $22MM before the 2008 season, but that was one year before the second baseman was eligible for arbitration. Alexei Ramirez inked a four-year, $32.5MM deal with the White Sox this past February, after his first three years in the majors. He was starting from a higher base salary ($1.1MM) than Andrus will be because of the contract he signed out of Cuba before the 2008 season. Both deals could serve as a frame of reference in any potential talks between the Rangers and Andrus.
Before the season we heard that Texas was willing to explore long-term deals with several players before the end of Spring Training, but nothing came of it. Andrus' skill set (speed and defense) is typically undervalued in arbitration, and our projections have his 2012 salary in the $2.6-3.2MM range. There's certainly no urgency to get a deal done, but the sooner the Rangers act, the more money they're likely to save.
Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.
I’m not sure if they should just let him ride out arb and say see-ya when he hits free agency and bring up their other start short stop, who has more power.
Other short stop? Who are you referring to?
Jurickson Profar….right now arguably a top-5 overall prospect.
Cool! We will take Andrus.
– every GM from every other team
Which means he’ll be a valuable trade deadline chip in a couple years.
And I will take you. What would it take for my favorite Rangers team to pull this trade off?
It’s really unfair to profile Andrus as a “defense-first shortstop.” Andrus is a good offensive shortstop while still being a whiz with the glove. Just because he’s an above average defensive player is no reason to sell his offense short.
he isn’t a good offensive player. he has never even been an average one
You clearly don’t get it, notsureifsrs. Andrus turned 23 during this season, an age where top draftees out of college barely reaching Double A, and this is his 3rd major league season, where he’s continued to show consistent improvement while providing above average offensive production relative to his position (along with plus defense).
Elvis Andrus is a top 5 SS already at age 23 (if you want to get more specifc, he was 22 up until the last month of the season) with projection still to develop into an even better player. One could argue he’s barely scratched the surface. Andrus is already an above average SS at this stage of his career.
That’s true. I’ve edited the post.
I prefer Andrus to Kinsler, so maybe history repeats itself and the Rangers could ask Andrus to switch over to 2B like they did with Young as soon as Profar is ready. If Kinsler is around at that time, then maybe he becomes trade bait. Although Kinsler and Andrus both have mental lapses playing defense, I prefer Andrus’s youth and speed.
kinsler would bring back a good haul. he’s a much, much better player
Will be curious to see hwo the presence of Jurickson Profar through the minors affects those plans
I don’t know how people can even consider him a great defensive shortstop when he committed something like 25-30 errors. He needs to learn how to throw the ball to 1st base before I can consider him among the best.
Looking just at errors is a terrible way to judge a player defensively.
UZR is highly flawed too, even when it says it is pitcher independent, it doesn’t take into account the type of pitchers he’s playing behind (Rangers have pitchers that induce more balls to be hit toward the area Andrus patrols) and the type of defenders he’s playing alongside (third and second, if he plays along good 3Base and 2Base teammates he’ll get less chances in fielding).
So yeah, basically he’s a shortstop who commits 25 errors a season (this year he was the leader in the AL), 60% of his errors are while fielding (15), 28% due to throw (7), and allowed 22 players to reach on errors. His double plays stats are also higher due to his second basemen starting 40 double plays (4-6-3), while the league has way lower stats, and in double plays started by him, he’s just about average, even if you compare him to last year’s Gold Glove winner (because lots of people said Andrus got robbed), Jeter, Derek took part in 700 less plate appearances than Andrus, and Jeter still had only 5 less double plays initiated by him when compared to Elvis.
I don’t know about people but i want my shortstops to make the less possible errors while fielding, to allow the less possible people to get on base, and to initiate the most possible double plays.
that what was on long post, you could have just said this…
I don’t understand UZR there for I don’t like it.. I would much rather my SS not get to balls then get to balls and make errors.
ridiculous. you know who doesn’t make a lot of errors, derek jeter.
That’s why Jeter’s a GGer. :/
because he lacks range and usually makes minimal errors.. and thats what GG’s are not taken as serious achievements
Oh I know, I wasn’t seriously advocating that Jeter was a good defensive SS.
By doing what John is suggesting they would be losing out on a ton of potential value. Instead of him being a FA after 2014 with Profar ready (for example purposes), he could have another year of control for say 8m (would be 1st FA year) with a 10m option the following year. In other words the Rangers could be in a position to demand a kings ransom in trade. Or keep him and make it work with both (CF). An extension, IMO, is a no-brainer and waiting any more would be a bad play.
Hey MLBTR, really love these pieces! I’m sure the teams themselves aren’t too crazy about having the “opinion” out there before the fact, but us fans sure get a kick out of them. I’d really enjoy ones for Mat Latos & Cameron Maybin. It’s been a month-and-a-half short of four years since the Padres have given out anything longer then a two-year deal, the 3-52m Peavy deal. I personally think it’s in the Padres best interests to get those done this off-season. In a years time Maybin will be at the point when the Dodgers were only able to get Kemp to sign a two year deal covering his first arb years. That is an extreme example in Maybin’s case, but he’ll have much more incentive to sign a team-friendly extension now versus in a years time.
A lot of young starters have gotten extensions in the past two years. Think Latos should be one of the next. A 5 year deal paying him between 25-30m (along with 2 options) would be a possibility at this point. Wait a year and it might be 4/30m with 1 option, and that’s if they’re lucky because that would make him #1 on a contract for a pitcher with 3 years of contol, surpassing Kazmir’s guarantee, so there is no guarantee Latos wouldn’t say ‘nah’ to 4/30m and wait a year and try to get the patented 5/75m, hence the importance of signing him now. It’s a gamble, he could get hurt, but if he develops as hoped, stays healthy, not getting a deal done now would be a swift kick in the rear in a year or two’s time.
I don’t understand how teams that can give out big free agent contracts, some even to fringe players, but are hesitant to lock up their young studs that look like evolving stars sooner. Colletti is the point in hand example in that one. Think the Kemp blunder will hurt big time, either a 150m extension that wouldn’t have been necessary at this point if he still had 2-3 more years of control, to letting Kershaw get another year to show the world how awesome he is.
With Kemp, after he had two full years of time in the majors (after ’08) he owned a .299/.342/.474 line with 103 xbh’s and 51 sb’s. For whatever reason they didn’t get him signed at the time so they settled on giving him his two year deal the following off-season. Teams like AZ with Upton (6/51m), or Cin with Bruce (6/51), as well as Col with Gonzalez (7/80m) jumped at the opportunity while the Dodgers decided to wait. That same off-season in question for Kemp the Dodgers gave out 92m in extensions to guys like Furcal, Ramirez & Blake. Bruce and Gonzalez would have three more years of control if they were where Kemp is now service time wise, with Upton having two more years. When figures start getting exchanged with Stewart for Kemp the size of the blunder will really take size.
The Padres can’t afford to wait like the Dodgers due to having a payroll about half the size for the time being, not that its particularly smart to do so even if you can. Neither Hoyer or Black have been around enough to realize that Maybin is the best CF they’ve had since Petco opened. The average age advantage over a chunk of the others is about 10 years. That’s a big part of it. Not that they cant see that they’ve got the perfect man manning CF out there. Would expect the contracts between Maybin and Latos to be similarly structured with Latos getting slightly more.
Just saying, but I didn’t really suggest anything. I said I wasn’t sure what the Rangers would do in that situation. I would love to keep Elvis a little bit longer, since as you say, there is a decent chance that Profar wouldn’t even be ready by the time Andrus hit free agency.
by saying “I’m not sure if they should just let him ride out arb and say see-ya when he hits free agency” your at least planting a discussion piece. I think that would be a mistake on the Rangers part. He turns into a 5-6 win SS over these next two years the Rangers would be kicking themselve regardless of what Profar is doing, it’d be a missed opportunity. Considering he’s already a 4-win player, I’d feel confident in making the decision now.
So basically he’s “defensive only” shortstop who commits 25 errors a season (this year he was the leader in the AL), 60% of his errors are while fielding (15), 28% due to throw (7), and allowed 22 players to reach on errors.
All that on a team with pitchers who induce more grounders and plays towards Elvis’ area, giving Andrus more plays than the average shortstop, which in turn helps his UZR even if he doesn’t have as good hands (make the most plays TOTAL, it doesn’t matter if in the proccess you make the most errors in the majors).
His double plays stats are also higher due to his second basemen starting 40 double plays (4-6-3), while the league has way lower stats, and in double plays started by him, he’s just about average, even if you compare him to last year’s Gold Glove winner (because lots of people said Andrus got robbed), Jeter, Derek took part in 700 less plate appearances than Andrus, and Jeter still had only 5 less double plays initiated by him when compared to Elvis.
I don’t know about people but i want my shortstops to make the less possible errors while fielding, to allow the less possible people to get on base, and to initiate the most possible double plays.
With fast/rangy shortstops you have the error factor of those kind of players reaching balls and either making a bad throw on the play or bumbling it on the transition, with errors being called a chunk of the time. With a less rangy SS it’s a hit to cf he doesn’t even come close to getting to. Considering he’s going to make some of the plays he gets, versus being sure thing hits, you live with some additional errors. Wouldn’t be surprised to see them cut down as he matures at the position.
Now if you’ve got an error-prone SS that’s a little stiff in nature, not the kind of guys stealing 35+ bases, then your spot on about the error part.
Within a couple of years Andrus should be traded. See him as a poor man’s Starlin Castro; solid regular with great D and a strained offensive game. Texas has Profar down in the farm and will probably attempt to raise Andrus’s value before trading him.
Yeah he’d be a great fit on the Yankees in about two years 🙂 With Kinsler a FA in two years, when he’ll be 32, I’d put my money on both Profar and Andrus playing together for at least a while, and possibly several years.
Will be interesting to see how quickly Profar moves through the system. Talent is there for that to be some time in 2013.