The White Sox are next as we continue our series looking at each team's arbitration eligible players.
- First time: None
- Second time: None
- Third time: John Danks, Carlos Quentin, Tony Pena
Pena is a non-tender candidate. Though he could be retained with no raise on his current $1.6MM salary, he may need Tommy John surgery and might not be able to contribute much in 2012.
Quentin has solid production in the categories arbitration favors: home runs and RBIs. That should lead to a salary in the $7.5MM range.
Danks is an interesting case for arbitration nerds. He missed around four starts for an oblique strain this summer, at a point in his career where an inning is worth about $24K and a win around $80K in salary. He's likely to come in under 180 innings and 10 wins. There are few recent comparables for a five-plus service time starter like Danks, but Jeremy Guthrie and Matt Garza are current-year comparables whose fates will be intertwined. A vintage Danks year might have resulted in a $10MM salary, but we see him closer to $8MM for 2012.
Retaining Quentin and Danks could put the White Sox around $105MM in commitments for 2012. That's well below this year's $128MM payroll, but with attendance down the team may pull back spending.
Matt Swartz contributed to this post.
I bet the white sox try this trade Carlos for a pitching prospect. Vicedio takes over full time in right. Try and trade rios for literally abything. If history tells us anything he will play well after being traded. And let deaza play center. Maybe let Pierre walk and have lilibridge start in left. That clears about 20 mill give or take some depending on how much of rios’ contract is taken on by the sox. And maybe see if anyone will take on peavy could clear another 10 mill off payroll. Again the sox may have to take a bad player in return. Rios and peavy at half their price would be decent pick ups for other teams. They could easily get the payroll under 100 mill. Maybe even find a taker for Dunn at half price or even dare I say it trade konerko. And have aj and flower split time at catcher and dh and maybe even at 1st depending on who bwtween konerko or Dunn is traded.
No chance they can trade Rios- he’s dead weight. Dunn is probably just as much of a long shot, a team may take a chance but you’d have to take back an awful contract (Vernon Wells comes to mind?) so I think you’d be better off rolling the dice with Dunn again. Quentin probably gets traded, possibly Thornton too. Pierre won’t be back- De Aza probably will be in left and leading off. The big question I’d have is do they have the money to re-sign Buehrle or do they try to swing Sale into the rotation?
Sale should and probably be in the rotation. The question is who does he replace, buehrle, danks, Floyd, peavy? All viable people to not be there next season. Rios plus 75% possibly more of his contract with either deaza or lili replacing him at league minimum still is a positive for the sox. Some gm would take a chance on Dunn at 50% but it may be smarter for him to try it again for the sox. Peavy could be a smart pick up at a discounted rate for a team. He has shown flashes of greatness and a full year away from surgery will do him good. Again it might be smarter for the sox to keep him but if money if a big issue and a team will take him assume he is as good as gone. Wouldn’t be surprised to see aj and konerko on the trading block as well.
I do not see any of those things happening. Nobodys going to take Rios or Dunn without the Sox eating up 90% of the deal. Even Tony Reggains isn’t that dumb.
I was with you until that last sentence.
At the right price, I wouldnt hate to see Carlos brought to Cincinnati for LF. Probably a slightly better hitter than Heisey over the long haul. Especially being in GABP should help those numbers more.
jake peavy and bullpen guy to the yankees plus $7-10 million cash for brett gardner…that saves the sox about $10 million and gets them a lead-off hitter for next year…while the yankees get another pitcher who could potentially help out their rotation.
Considering his ability to get on base, ability to steal, and his high UZR I think you’re kidding yourself if you think the ChiSox will get Gardner so easily.
Change it to danks and a pullpen guy for Gardner and maybe. Danks and Thornton for Bret
what about a mega-trade? floyd, danks, quentin to yankees for gardner and other players…just so the sox can save money and go after a starting ace in the near future
Or peavy+ Thornton+ prospect for Bret. Could work for both teams
I think you’re seriously overestimating Peavy’s value.
Clearly.
Peavy has negative value at this point. Even if the Sox pay 70% of his contract. We’re talking about a guy who’s owed $21 million during calendar year 2012.
Yankees do not trade good players like Gardner. They buy them. You have to play the hand you are dealt and actually the Sox are not that far off even this year. I would actually play Dunn the rest of this year to see if there is even a glimmer. If not tell him he will sit on the bench for two years or accept a settlement of say 60 percent. He might take the 60 percent. Rios does not seem to mind sitting on the bench, but Dunn seems too. So for Rios there is enough talent to maybe give it one more shot.
Rios should stay, he would have a good season next one, maybe a 30 30, trade dunn and a starter or two, we can add sale pr stewart to the rotation, then the lineup:
1. De Aza LF
2. Beckham 2B
3. Konerko 1B
4. Quentin RF
5. Viciedo DH
6. Piersinzky C
7. Rios CF
8. Ramirez SS
9. Morel 3B ( or a free agent 3B)
the thing is that we still wouldn’t have a powerful left-handed hitter which we were counting on dunn to do this year…unless reinsdorf hikes up payroll so we could bid for fielder and trade for a starting ace we’re going to be in rebuild mode for at least the next 3 years.
the thing is that we still wouldn’t have a powerful left-handed hitter which we were counting on dunn to do this year…unless reinsdorf hikes up payroll so we could bid for fielder and trade for a starting ace we’re going to be in rebuild mode for at least the next 3 years.
The lineup looks fine but I’m not sure the top part makes sense.
Not unless you think De Aza has suddenly channelled his inner Ricky Henderson.
looks fine? that could really easily be a big pile of suck. 3 of the same 4 black holes as this year, plus De Aza who is absolutely unproven.
looks fine? that could really easily be a big pile of suck. 3 of the same 4 black holes as this year, plus De Aza who is absolutely unproven.
The lineup looks fine but I’m not sure the top part makes sense.
De Aza is a 27-year old prospect, with 93 plate appearances this year. Like Lillibridge, he is a guy not likely to sustain this high level (.877 OPS) as an everyday guy.
Sox are most likely stuck with all the big contracts. Thing is, if Dunn produces even halfway to the back of his baseball card (26 HR 80 BI .340 OBP?), this team looks a lot closer to Detroit. They have to presume Dunn will be better next year, and that the window is still open, while shaving off salary where they can, and promoting young players where they can. How about this:
let Pierre go, sign Buerhle (or at least offer arby) at $15m and Danks long-term at $12. Trade Quentin and Floyd. That gets you to around $115m salary. If it needs to be lower, think about trading Thornton, Frasor, AJ or maybe getting Danks or Buerhle to defer some salary until the Peavy deal is off the books in 2013 (a la Konerko and AJ deals last winter). Those moves could bring the salary under $100m (though you’d have to spend up to rebuild the pen . . .)
When trading guys like Quentin and Floyd, the goal should be supersub types who can put the heat on faltering veterans who can’t be moved–Dunn and Rios–and on young players who may be too expensive to upgrade–Beckham, Morel.
while i do agree with you 15 mill for buehrle is a bit much. Considering he has stated more than once he is either going to A- pitch for the sox, B- pitch for the cards or C retire. So there really isnt going to be a huge market for him when teams know he only wants to do those few things. 12 mill for danks i think is a good offer….maybe 8 with buehrle for a year with incentives and an option for 12 mill for 2013. But he may take a bigger discount considering he is getting older and he knows darn well why he has been soo good this year was because of the extra rest from the 6 man rotation. I think trading floyd and carlos are true options that would clear close to 20 mill from the cap.
If the sox decided to trade frasor, thornton and AJ it would save another 15+ mill right there. And they wouldnt have to spend much to replace them considering crain is there as the primary set up man and the guy that pitched in place of thornton earlier in the year(santiago maybe?) seems ready to step in as the lefty right away. Also Wil Ohman has turned his season round so there is no real need for a 3rd lefty in the pen. Trading Floyd clears a spot for Sale. and I truly think Buehrle wont be back clearing a space for humber or Stewart. the rotation next season will look something like this….Danks-Peavy-humber- sale- stewart.
With carlos gone it frees up a spot for Vicedio full time and Deaza and Lili can platoon in Left(best option because either of them full time could be bad) AJ could be moved because Tyler Flowers seems to finally want to stay in the bigs and that clears a good amount of money off with either Lucy or Phigley being the back ups. I still think keeny might try to find takers for Peavy(eating up to 50% of his deal) and rios eating up to 75% of his deal) and Dunn eating less of his deal….teams getting peavys, rios, and dunn and huge discounts could work out…i mean rios at 25% of his contract would be rios at 8 mill total over the next 3 years is easy for a team to take a chance on.
De Aza is a 27-year old prospect, with 93 plate appearances this year. Like Lillibridge, he is a guy not likely to sustain this high level (.877 OPS) as an everyday guy.
Sox are most likely stuck with all the big contracts. Thing is, if Dunn produces even halfway to the back of his baseball card (26 HR 80 BI .340 OBP?), this team looks a lot closer to Detroit. They have to presume Dunn will be better next year, and that the window is still open, while shaving off salary where they can, and promoting young players where they can. How about this:
let Pierre go, sign Buerhle (or at least offer arby) at $15m and Danks long-term at $12. Trade Quentin and Floyd. That gets you to around $115m salary. If it needs to be lower, think about trading Thornton, Frasor, AJ or maybe getting Danks or Buerhle to defer some salary until the Peavy deal is off the books in 2013 (a la Konerko and AJ deals last winter). Those moves could bring the salary under $100m (though you’d have to spend up to rebuild the pen . . .)
When trading guys like Quentin and Floyd, the goal should be supersub types who can put the heat on faltering veterans who can’t be moved–Dunn and Rios–and on young players who may be too expensive to upgrade–Beckham, Morel.
FWIW, the link to Tony Pena goes to the wrong player named Tony Pena… it should go to this link:
www baseball-reference com / players / p / penato03 shtml
Tim you might want to update. According to scott merkin the beat writer for the sox in a article he wrote yesterday the whitesox have under 90 mill committed to 2012