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Millwood Hopes To Sign This Week

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Veteran righty Kevin Millwood "would like to have his situation resolved this week with some big league team," tweets Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun.  Connolly says Millwood can't talk to teams for 24 hours after opting out of his Yankees contract yesterday.  Said the pitcher, "I am waiting to see which teams have interest, if any. That's pretty much it.  I'm ready. I definitely still want to pitch."

The Orioles have "mild interest" in reuniting with Millwood, according to Connolly.  The 36-year-old posted a 5.10 ERA, 6.2 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.4 HR/9, and 37.2% groundball rate in 190 2/3 innings for Baltimore last year, earning $12MM on the last year of a contract signed with Texas in December of '05.  That $60MM contract was earned on the heels of an ERA title for the Indians, but the first-place Tribe does not plan to pursue him now despite having Carlos Carrasco and Mitch Talbot currently on the DL, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.

Millwood averaged 89 miles per hour on his fastball last year but was around 85 in his first couple of starts for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees, according to Jayson Stark's sources.  He seems unlikely to jump directly onto a team's 25-man roster.

Offseason In Review Series

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Last month I finished up my Offseason In Review series, a labor of love that unfortunately took two months to complete.  I am especially proud of the series this year because I was able to talk to executives from more than a dozen teams, which often added angles I had not considered.  Next year we'll aim for an even 30 and also try to wrap it up before Opening Day.  Each article discussing the 2010-11 offseason is linked below.  Special thanks to Ben Nicholson-Smith for editing all of them.

AL East

AL Central

AL West

NL East

NL Central

NL West

Discussion: How Many Aces In MLB?

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A week ago I kicked off a discussion among MLBTR writers about how many true ace starting pitchers there are in baseball.  I was surprised to find that my own off-the-cuff list totaled 18, with another eight falling into my "borderline" group.  My list of aces, in no particular order:

Adam Wainwright
Roy Halladay
Cole Hamels
Roy Oswalt
Cliff Lee
C.C. Sabathia
Dan Haren
Jered Weaver
Josh Johnson
Justin Verlander
Felix Hernandez
Jon Lester
David Price
Tim Lincecum
Chris Carpenter
Clayton Kershaw
Matt Cain
Tommy Hanson

My borderline group:

John Danks
Yovani Gallardo
Brett Anderson
Ricky Romero
Zack Greinke
Ubaldo Jimenez
Francisco Liriano
Trevor Cahill

I didn't crunch any numbers here – just good old-fashioned gut feelings.  But could there really be almost 20 ace starters in MLB?  Let's see your list in the comments.

Lincecum’s Historic Arbitration Case

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The Giants avoided a historic arbitration case with ace Tim Lincecum last year, agreeing to a two-year, $23MM deal.  That contract just delayed the inevitable, as Lincecum will still be arbitration eligible after the 2011 season and the Beverly Hills Sports Council client is in line for an unprecedented payday.

Lincecum

No Comparables

When you talk to agents about Lincecum's upcoming arbitration case, you hear phrases like "uncharted waters" and "lands unknown."  There is no arbitration comparable; the 26-year-old already has two Cy Young awards.  Said one agent, "They will use all of the free agent numbers here, including C.C. Sabathia (even if he opts out), Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay and everyone else with an impressive, cool silver and black plaque hanging in their basement.  This negotiation will transcend arbitration and will be a mini free agency discussion."

The Raise Argument

All the agents I spoke to pegged Lincecum's 2012 salary in the $19-22MM range assuming he has a "normal" year.  That's normal by Lincecum standards – something like last year's 3.43 ERA.  That kind of season easily lends itself to an argument that Lincecum deserves much better than the $5.9MM raise Carlos Zambrano received in 2007, based on both platform year and career bulk.  Lincecum is coming from a $14MM salary in 2011, so his agent Rick Thurman could demand a $7MM+ raise.

Assuming cases for pitchers such as Jered Weaver, John Danks, and Matt Garza are settled first, they could have a bearing on Lincecum.  Most agents put Weaver in the $14-15MM range, but if he finds his way to $16-17MM, Lincecum's agent could argue for a bigger raise.

Another Cy Young?

Only eight pitchers have won three or more Cy Young awards, and none of them accomplished the feat by their fifth season.  If Lincecum wins the award this year, he has a good case to be the highest-paid pitcher of all time.  That means a salary beyond Lee's $24MM, perhaps well beyond.  If Lee is worthy of five years at $24MM per, how much extra would it be worth to reduce the risk to a one-year deal?  If Lincecum were a free agent after '11, coming off a Cy Young and limiting himself to a one-year deal, something like $28MM would be within reach.  Multiple agents believe another Cy Young would propel Lincecum to $25MM or more for 2012.

Thinking About 2013

Lincecum is a Super Two player, meaning he's eligible for arbitration four times.  If he lands a $25MM salary for 2012, the stakes would get even higher for '13.  At that point even a .500 year in '12 would almost have to result in a $5MM raise, putting Lincecum at $30MM and putting the Giants in a tough spot. 

Long-Term Possibilities

Lincecum might have been earning close to $20MM this year had the Giants not signed him to a two-year deal in February of 2010.  The team figures to be motivated to attempt another multiyear deal.  Lincecum, having already earned more than most pitchers who sign extensions during their arbitration years, might not be looking for the maximum number of years on an extension now.  How about four years $90MM – $18MM in '12, $22MM in '13, and $25MM in '14 and '15?  That'd allow Lincecum to reach free agency at age 31 and go for his first $100MM deal.

If he did try to maximize the term on a new contract, Lincecum could look for eight years.  No matter how you slice it, an eight-year deal would exceed Sabathia's $161MM and be the largest contract ever for a pitcher.

Conclusion

The 2011-12 offseason is packed with fascinating storylines, led by possible free agency for Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Jose Reyes, and Sabathia.  But we may still have plenty to talk about in January and February, with all eyes on Lincecum's contract situation.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

2012 Contract Issues: New York Mets

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The Mets are next in our 2012 Contract Issues series.  Here's what the team faces after the 2011 season:

Eligible For Free Agency (9)

  • Jose Reyes has spent his entire career with the Mets, and Beltran has been with them since the '05 season.  There seems little chance of either player being re-signed.  Both are playing well on the young season and should do well in free agency.  They're also midseason trade candidates, with Reyes expected to fetch more given his lower salary.  At $18.5MM, Beltran might be mostly a salary dump even if he's healthy and hitting.
  • Sandy Alderson imports Chris Capuano, Chris Young, Tim Byrdak, Jason Isringhausen, Scott Hairston, and Willie Harris are up for free agency again, as well as Ryota Igarashi.  Several of the pitchers may be traded this summer if healthy and pitching decently.

Contract Options (1)

  • Francisco Rodriguez: $17.5MM club option with a $3.5MM buyout.  Guaranteed with 55 games finished.  K-Rod needs 47 more games finished to cause his option to vest.  It can be done; he finished 57 from May onward in 2009.  The Mets will either have to trade him to a team with an established closer or be very careful about his usage.

Arbitration Eligible (4)

Pelfrey has posted one good start in six tries this year.  A lousy platform year might hold down his arbitration raise, but he could still reach $6-7MM.  The Mets could consider trading or even non-tendering the 27-year-old righty.  Pagan has been brutal and Paulino has been out of the picture, though Buchholz has been a nice find.  For the sake of argument, I could see Pelfrey, Pagan, and Buchholz earning $14MM in total in 2012.

2012 Payroll Obligation

The Mets' 2012 payroll obligation, according to Cot's, is $66.83MM, including Rodriguez's buyout.  If the Mets save $10MM+ by unloading Reyes, Beltran, and Rodriguez at the trade deadline, will that money go to next year's payroll?  Will Pelfrey be worth keeping around next year at $6-7MM?  Even if the Mets' financial problems result in a payroll drop to the $100MM range, Alderson should still have $20MM to play with.  A minority stake in the team could be sold by July, but Mets ownership will likely still be embroiled in a billion-dollar lawsuit when the 2011-12 offseason arrives.  When the Mets finally have a clean financial slate, there should be a lot of payroll space to work with.

Pirates, McCutchen Discussing Extension

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The Pirates are discussing a long-term contract extension with center fielder Andrew McCutchen, reports Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.  Kovacevic adds that "there is no sign that an agreement is imminent."

McCutchen

Talking to Kovacevic, McCutchen gushed about Pittsburgh and his willingness to remain with the Pirates for his entire career.  McCutchen, who is represented by Steve Hammond of Aegis Sports Management, seeks a deal that "reflects potential future performance," in Kovacevic's words.

McCutchen, 24, owns a career line of .281/.362/.454 at the moment in 1,264 plate appearances.  He's a couple weeks away from reaching two years of service time.  He'll be at two years and 123 days of service after the season, which would have resulted in Super Two status using last year's cutoff.  However, if CAA's early prediction of a 2.146 cutoff is anywhere close to accurate, McCutchen will not be a Super Two player.  In that case he would be arbitration eligible after the 2012, '13, and '14 seasons.  Regardless, he's eligible for free agency after the '15 season.

MLBTR's Luke Adams discussed McCutchen's extension candidacy in December, noting comparables Justin Upton and Jay Bruce.  Since then another big name outfielder was extended in Carlos Gonzalez.  Upton is the best comparable – he was extended between two and three years of service time and is not a Super Two.  Bruce's deal would match up if you were to drop the fourth arbitration year; one other difference is that his included a club option on a third free agent season.  CarGo's deal, of course, is the gold standard for those in McCutchen's service class.  To line up Gonzalez's contract with Upton's, we could lop off the final-year $20MM salary and think of it as six years and $60MM.

If this gets done, I expect a six-year term for McCutchen, buying out two free agent years.  Career bulk is a major factor in the arbitration process, so it should be important in a multiyear deal as well.  A healthy 2011 season from McCutchen would give him a 100+ games played advantage over Upton, so I don't see why McCutchen would settle for less than $52MM.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Quick Hits: Feliz, Oswalt, Dodgers

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A few items to close out this weekend..

  • Given his recent mind-changing history, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (via Twitter) suggests not reading too much into Neftali Feliz's thoughts on starting next season.  Earlier today, Feliz said that he wants to continue finishing games for the rest of his career, before backtracking later on.
  • Buster Olney of ESPN tweets that of all the players he has ever written about, he would say that Roy Oswalt is among those most likely to leave baseball whenever he felt it necessary.
  • Tom Schieffer is a good pick to oversee the Dodgers, writes Olney.  Olney writes that Schieffer is, by all accounts, a tough negotiator and someone who will make budgetary decisions and stick to them.

Feliz Might Not Want To Start Next Season

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Earlier today, Rangers closer Neftali Feliz said that he wants to continue finishing games for the rest of his career in an interview with USA Today's Jorge L. Ortiz.  After Texas faced the Athletics today, Feliz backtracked from that statement, writes T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com.

"Right now, I'm focused on being healthy and getting back to being the closer," said Feliz, who will turn 23 years old tomorrow.

Rangers general manager Jon Daniels told USA Today that the team intends to keep Feliz as its closer for the rest of the season, then consider his role for 2012 in the offseason.  If Feliz does stick to his guns and decide that he wants to continue to close, Daniels says that they'll weigh that in their decision.

"We'll take his feelings, as well as team need and other factors, into consideration over the winter,'' Daniels wrote via e-mail. "He actually makes a pretty good case for starting by suggesting relieving is more physically demanding. We'll look at that in the offseason.''

Before the start of the season, the Rangers considered moving Feliz into the 2011 rotation.  Recently, Daniels said that the organization definitely believes that the youngster has the stuff to start.  A March MLBTR poll showed that readers were pretty evenly split on whether or not Feliz should start.

MLBTR Originals

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Here's a rundown of MLBTR's original content from the past week….

Pedro Martinez On His Way To Retirement

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Right-hander Pedro Martinez has virtually ruled out a return to the major leagues and says he is on his way to retirement, according to the Associated Press.  In an interview that was broadcast today in the Dominican Republic, Martinez said that he has stayed in shape, but not with his eye on a return.

"I keep active because I have not announced my retirement, because that is something that takes time and you have to plan it. Plus, it is something that the Dominican people expected," the three-time Cy Young award-winner said.

Just three weeks ago, Martinez seemed to hint that he was looking to return to baseball and preferably for the Boston Red Sox.  However, the Dominican hurler now says that his comments were misinterpreted.  Martinez also dropped the Yankees in conversation, but the Bombers probably wouldn't have been interested in him anyway.

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