Ryan Braun's $105MM, five-year contract extension through 2020 seemed like it came out of nowhere, but a ton of other young stars also appear to be in line for new deals, writes Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated. Heyman runs down the 20-somethings that could get hefty contract extensions and touches on a few other things in today's column..
- Giants ace Tim Lincecum won't be a free agent until after the 2013 season, but San Francisco would be wise to lock him up before his arbitration numbers get out of hand. A third Cy Young season could potentially bring Lincecum from $14MM into the $25MM range and possibly to $30MM in '13. Heyman expects a deal to get done, even if it costs the club a fortune. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes touched on the Lincecum situation here and here, and will have much more on the topic next week.
- Similarly, there's no reason to think the Yankees would let Robinson Cano leave in the prime of his career. The Bombers have options for 2012 and '13 at $14MM and $15MM, respectively, and will obviously exercise them. Look for the Yanks to get a deal done with the second baseman, but only after the Scott Boras client files for free agency.
- Reds slugger Joey Votto will hit the open market after 2013 and it would be wise for the club to lock him up as the youngster continues to improve. This winter he signed a three-year, $38MM to take care of his arbitration years, but his rate will presumably rise after that deal is up. Heyman believes that the Reds will lock up Votto, just as they did with Jay Bruce. This winter, Cincinnati signed the right fielder to a six-year, $51MM deal.
- Even though the Marlins' poor attendance would seem to indicate that the club doesn't have the funds to sign Josh Johnson to a new deal, they are on their way to a brand-new facility in the near future. Putting that aside, they're still in the black. His $39MM, four-year deal goes through 2013 but his next contract should easily top that.
- If you're a Halos fan looking to purchase a Jered Weaver jersey, you may want to reconsider. Heyman writes that the right-hander is all but a goner in two years. Agent Scott Boras is talking his client up and the Angels don't have a history of keeping their top free agents anyway. It's possible that the next Dodgers owner, assuming there is one, could talk the Simi Valley product into a homecoming.
- It may come as a surprise to some, but Heyman predicts that Andre Ethier will remain with the Dodgers beyond 2012. GM Ned Colletti is believed to want to lock up Ethier along with Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw. Even though the Dodgers' situation is probably too messy for anything to get done right away, they have to act fast to keep the 29-year-old.
- You can also expect the Dodgers to work something out with Kemp, who is also a free agent after 2012.
- Of the 33 players that Heyman profiles, he expects most to get new deals done with their respective clubs. Some of the players that we may see elsewhere: John Danks, Shin Soo-Choo, Jonathan Sanchez, Justin Morneau, Grady Sizemore, and Shaun Marcum.
- TV magnate Burt Sugarman is one name believed to be in the mix among potential buyers of the Dodgers. Investment banker Jason Reese and billionaire Ron Burkle are also in the mix. Burkle is teaming with former Dodgers great Steve Garvey.
Gonna be hard for the Giants to keep everyone around. If one of thse 4 pitchers has to be let go/traded, Sanchez should be the one, especially with another young lefty (Bumgarner) already in the rotation
Well realistically, if they make the playoffs again payroll should go up another notch plus after 2012 Rowands 12MM comes off the books and after 2013 Zito’s 24.5MM and Huff”s 11MM come off the books so they’ll have some money, but not a ton after arb years for Posey and Sandoval.
We just won a world series. Right now, I’m still enjoying the moment. Can discussions about 2013 wait another year?
HAHA I’m still living it! Even when we lose, it doesn’t bother me.
I doubt the payroll will jump up again, hell I doubt they keep it at this level in 2012. Maybe once they need to pay Timmy and Cain
Those are some big guys to lock up. Are you saying the Yankees will decline Cano’s two club options, rendering him a Free Agent, then lock him up as such for longer or that they will wait until after the 2013 season when his $29MM worth of options have run out?
As for Lincy…$30MM for one year seems insane. That’s absolutely insane and way unrealistic, IMO.
But not impossible. Arbitration could bring him up a notch north of $20 million after this season. If he wins another Cy Young award (or two) that year or the next, his raise after for 2013 could bring his salary to, or at least close to, $30 million.
The highest single year guaranteed pitcher salary in history is the $25.5MM (or 31MM guaranteed when buy out is factored in) for the final guaranteed year of Johan Santana’s contract, which now looks terrible. Granted, he’s much older, the Mets are a way worse team and he’s injured. But still.
$30MM for one year just seems insane. How could anybody justify what would at this point be a $16+MM raise in a single season without yet hitting FA?
As for Cano…what do people think the Yankees will do? They don’t normally put in two separate options like that so they’re in a weird place. Seems like it would make more sense to void them and go long term like 6-8 years at $18MM per (just to be sure he breaks the record for a 2nd baseman’s contract since they are the Yankees and Cano’s being groomed by Boras)
It’s not a $16 million raise for a single season. He’s arbitration eligible for two more years. After the 2011 season and after the 2012 season. He’s a free agent after 2013.
Remember, he already broke records with his $14 million salary, which is a raise of about $5 million. Typically, players of Lincecum’s stature get bigger raises every year through arbitration.
If all goes well for Tim and he puts up semi-Tim numbers, he could see a $6 million raise after the this year and $7 million the next, bringing his total salary for 2013 to $25 million. A Cy Young award or two could bolster that number approaching $30 million.
Again, not likely, but not impossible.
There has not many been players that have produced at Lincecum’s level at his age.
Geeze I hope he is right about Votto. All of us Reds fans would hate to see him leave. If I were the team I’d basically give him a blank check. Out of all the people in the game I know that Votto would make good on his deal. Plus the kid has gotten better every year. I know I can’t expect him to get better into his 30s but a cerebral, patent player like him is smart enough to be a great hitter late into his career.
I hope he stays with the Reds. Teams and fans need a homegrown star to stick around. I hope the Reds enjoy many more years with Votto in the lineup.
If Johnson would hit the market! At a young 30 years old He would get at least 19mil a year, from the typical teams Yankees, Redsox, Angels etc.. But I can see my Marlins hanging on to him, He is a true Ace.
No they can’t. The Marlins won’t give one player half of their salary.
jon heyman taking a page from tim dierkes and getting paid much more to do it much worse
seriously the title of this post should be “Heyman on How He Would Do an MLBTR Post”
at least then i would have known not to bother with it
Hold on. The Dodgers – who are broke, now managed by the league and may or may not have a new owner lined up any time soon – will retain Ethier, Kemp and possibly add Weaver in two years because it’s his “true hometown team”? That’s a lot of money to spend for a team with no cash and whose current steward is an agent of the league (and therefore, the owners of the 29 other teams that compete with the Dodgers).
Pretty sure the Weaver comment was supposed to imply that the dodgers would not be being run by the MLB at that point.
Which, at this point, is far from guaranteed.
Im not bying this Weaver thing just yet. Who says the Angels don’t offer a 6yr 130yr offer?
Just because a team is getting a new stadium doesn’t mean their payroll will be increased. If the Marlins and Rays cannot bring fans in while they are winning they won’t be able to when they get a new stadium.
Seemed to help the Twins raise their payroll. Also, sometimes the new location of a ballpark might help in attracting more fans.
if steve garvey wants to play businessman, he ought to talk to trump about getting to compete on the apprentice.
I think Tim’s happy in SF and the Giants don’t want him to leave I think Neukom and Sabean are trying to come up with a contract extension to lock up Timmy. In the winter Tim will be locked up and probably cheaper than most people think, he even said it himself he doesn’t want to leave he’s comfortable and happy in San Francisco.