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2011 Rotations

The Orioles’ 2011 Rotation

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The Orioles' 2011 rotation will likely feature many familiar faces, but the results could be noticeably different if Baltimore's young starters continue adapting to the challenges of the American League East. Because of baseball's unbalanced schedule, the Orioles face four of baseball's top ten offenses on a regular basis. Not coincidentally, Orioles starters rank 26th in the majors in ERA, 25th in innings, 24th in quality starts, 29th in strikeout to walk ratio and 29th in FIP.

For some teams, those results would call for an offseason overhaul, but the Orioles have a young rotation that's capable of improving considerably. Jeremy Guthrie, the team's most established starter, has a 4.10 ERA in four seasons in the AL East, so the Orioles have pencilled him in atop next year's rotation.

Current starters Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta and Brad Bergesen will all be in the mix for starting jobs, but Kevin Millwood hits free agency and could sign in a more pitcher-friendly environment. Even if Millwood leaves, the O's will have a number of internal options, as president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail points out.

"You’d add [Zach] Britton and you’d add [Chris]  Tillman and you’d add [Rick]  Vanden Hurk, and then there are others that could work their way in there, like [Troy]  Patton," MacPhail told MLBTR.

With a month to go in the 2010 campaign and an entire offseason ahead of us, it's still early to predict starters with much certainty, but Matusz will presumably start for Baltimore in 2011. He entered the 2010 season as the fifth-best prospect in the game, according to Baseball America, but has struggled at times. Like AL East lefties Jon Lester, David Price and Ricky Romero, Matusz has taken time to adjust from the minors to baseball's toughest division, but if last month is any indication, he has made some adjustments. Though Matusz's season ERA sits at 4.72, he pitched to a 2.43 mark in August with a 26/7 K/BB ratio.

Jake Arrieta has a 5.10 ERA in 15 major league starts this season with more walks than strikeouts. Those numbers aren’t anything special, but the righty placed fourth on Baseball America’s preseason list of top Orioles prospects because of his “pure stuff” and potential to eat innings. The 24-year-old posted a 1.85 ERA in Triple A before the O’s called him up, so he figures to improve in 2011 as long as he can sort out his command issues.

Brad Bergesen, also in the team's current rotation, has an ERA of 5.55 with 4.2 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9. He doesn't turn 25 until later this month, so he's still young, even if he doesn't have the upside of some Orioles prospects.

Tillman and Britton are among Baltimore's most promising young arms. Tillman, 22, has a 3.34 ERA with 7.0 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in Triple A this season, though he has scuffled at the major league level so far. Britton, a 22-year-old left-hander, has a 2.69 ERA with 7.0 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in the upper minors. Both will have the chance to break into Baltimore's rotation next spring.

The Orioles acquired Vanden Hurk for Will Ohman earlier in the summer and they consider the 25-year-old right-hander a potential starter. He has a 4.25 ERA with 7.1 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 118.2 Triple A innings this year. Vanden Hurk, Tillman, Britton and current long reliever Troy Patton are not in the rotation now, but they give the Orioles a number of options. Still, if Millwood signs elsewhere, the O's may consider other veteran starters to complement their many young rotation candidates.

"If you have the opportunity to add another veteran innings guy, you might look at that as well," MacPhail said.  

Given the group's relative inexperience and the Orioles' division, it would be unfair to expect a San Diego or Oakland-esque breakout from this group right away. Pitchers like Tillman, Britton, Arrieta and Matusz will all be learning on the go, so they'll likely struggle at times. But those arms are promising, so the O's could have a young and effective rotation within a couple seasons.

The Blue Jays’ 2011 Rotation

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Four years ago, the Blue Jays rotation was a recognizable bunch. Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett and Ted Lilly headlined a talented, established group of starters. Now, the talent is there, but the pitchers are less experienced. And Shaun Marcum, who made his first big league start on that 2006 team, likes that he and his 2010 rotation-mates are surprising some people around the league.

“It’s good, because I’ve always been underrated,” Marcum told MLBTR. “So it’s something I’ve dealt with my whole life. I’ve been undersized; I haven’t been strong; everybody’s had something to knock on me, so to be underrated means to fly under the radar and sneak up on people.”

That's just what the Blue Jays are doing, but Marcum knows he, Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow and Brett Cecil are not exactly a secret.

“I think people kind of know who we are right now,” Marcum said. “People give us credit [and acknowledge] Brandon, Brett and Ricky, so the names are out there."

The numbers are there, too. Marcum returned from Tommy John surgery to post a 3.61 ERA this season and toss a one-hitter, thanks to one of the league's best change-ups. Morrow, who tossed a one-hitter of his own, leads the American League with 10.9 K/9, more than any qualified starter since 2007 (Erik Bedard). Meanwhile, Romero (3.54 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 3.3 BB/9) and Cecil (3.80 ERA, 6.4 K/9, 2.8 BB/9) have impressed in their sophomore seasons. The group has improved this year and Marcum says we can expect similar adjustments from the rotation in 2011.

“It’s young, gaining more experience each and every time out, getting better each and every time out,” Marcum said. “Especially Brandon, Brett and Ricky, they’ve developed into three great pitchers and they’re going to be main guys in this rotation for years to come.”

Marcum, Romero, Cecil and Morrow are under team control through 2012 or longer, but they won’t be enough. GM Alex Anthopoulos will need to round out his rotation with at least one starter next year and potentially more (he can't count on the same remarkable health Blue Jays starters have shown in 2010).

Top prospect Zach Stewart has showed promise in the minor leagues, and so has Brad Mills. Stewart, who is starting again, posted a 3.71 ERA with 7.7 K/9 in AA. Mills, 25, has struggled in the majors, but has posted solid numbers at Triple A Las Vegas, a hitter-friendly environment. Plus, Marc Rzepczynski, Jesse Litsch, Scott Richmond and Shawn Hill all have big league experience as starters. On the depth chart right beside them is Kyle Drabek, the 2010 Eastern League pitcher of the year. That distinction, which came after a season in which Drabek posted a 2.89 ERA and threw a no-hitter, caught Marcum’s attention.

“And he’s not the only one," Marcum said. "There’s other pitchers down [in the minor leagues], too. For him to go out and have the year that he had is good for him and good for this organization and hopefully we can get him up here soon to help out.”

Drabek is one of many internal options the Blue Jays have, so it would be a surprise to see the team pursue free agent starters this winter. The organization has the depth to fill its rotation from within and Blue Jays starters have the ability to establish themselves as one of the tougher groups in the league.

The Tigers’ 2011 Rotation

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Justin Verlander knows exactly which past rotation he’d like the Tigers to model themselves after.

"Braves," Verlander said, without hesitation. "Obviously that’s three Hall of Fame pitchers – you can’t really ask for that – but that’s the rotation I grew up watching. I grew up watching the Braves, I grew up watching Smoltzie [John Smoltz] and [Greg] Maddux and [Tom] Glavine just go after it and [perform] in the postseason. Those three guys – nobody wanted to face them."

As Verlander says, no rotation can be expected to match the Braves of the 1990s and early 2000s. But after some poor early season performances, Tigers starters have rebounded and appear poised to enter 2011 with a relatively stable rotation. Rick Porcello and Armando Galarraga have had ups and downs in 2010, but no pitcher has turned his season around as completely as Max Scherzer.

"Max has been probably one of the best pitchers in baseball in the second half," Verlander said.

In 17 starts since returning from a stint in minor leagues, Scherzer has posted a 2.20 ERA with 9.4 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9. Scherzer says his recent success – and the rotation’s – should continue into next season.

"Right now we’re pitching well," Scherzer said. "Verlander, myself, Galarraga, Porcello and Bondo [Jeremy Bonderman]. We’re putting a lot of quality starts up there and it’s good because we’re kind of feeding off of each other."

Scherzer, Verlander, Porcello and Galarraga can expect to keep feeding off each other next season, since all four are under team control for 2011. Bonderman is a free agent this offseason and though he has hinted at retirement, he could fit into the team’s plans for next season.

Instead, the Tigers may determine that Alfredo Figaro or Andy Oliver is ready to join the rotation. Figaro has pitched well at Triple A, though the 26-year-old has struggled in the major leagues. Big leaguers have also hit Oliver, but the 22-year-old has impressive numbers in the minor leagues over the course of his first pro season (3.50 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 3.2 BB/9).

Figaro and Oliver are closest to the majors, but the Tigers system continues to produce intriguing arms. Drew Smyly and Jacob Turner are not on the brink of contributing at the major league level, but the two top picks have the potential to start in the major leagues eventually.

Smyly, Turner and Oliver seem like youngsters, but Rick Porcello (who is actually a year younger than Oliver) is still just 21. Porcello also spent time in Toledo this summer, but he has pitched better since returning from Triple A. He doesn’t have the eye-popping strikeout numbers Scherzer does, but Porcello has posted a 4.44 ERA with twice as many strikeouts as walks since returning to the majors in mid-July.

Verlander says Porcello makes the baseball dance whenever they’re playing catch. Porcello's stuff has not translated into big league success this year, but it seems unlikely that he has reached his ceiling.

"I really don’t think Ricky has yet," Verlander said. "I still think even at his age, he can still pitch better than he is right now, and I know he’s been throwing well lately, but I think he’s better than what he’s shown."

That’s why Verlander likes this group for 2011 and beyond.

"We’re all under contract for a while, so I think the team envisions building around that and seeing what happens," Verlander said. "But if we can all pitch  the way that we’re capable of, the sky’s the limit."

Galarraga, who pushed the limits of pitching perfection in June, likes the idea of pitching with Verlander, Porcello and Scherzer for a while.

"Porcello and Max, they’re really young, younger than me and have a lot of talent, so hopefully we’re going to have for a couple of years the same rotation."

The Tigers have money coming off the books this winter, so they could spend on a starter if they don’t want to rely on Figaro or Oliver to round out the rotation. They could choose to look into free agents, since Porcello is no sure thing and teams almost always call on more than five starters over the course of a season.

Verlander, Scherzer, Galarraga and Porcello have promise, but don’t provide the same certainty as, say, the Phillies’ or Giants’ starters. All the same, Verlander is cautiously optimistic about what this group can do in 2011.

"You can never really forecast," Verlander said. "But if you say we’re all going to be pitching really well, I think our chances to win the division are outstanding."

It won't be Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz, but it should be enough.

The Royals’ 2011 Rotation

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Zack Greinke may not be happy with the Royals' direction, but he's probably going to anchor their rotation next year. The Royals will surround him with a combination of familiar major league arms and, potentially, unproven minor league pitching prospects.

First, the familiar major leaguers. Gil Meche is rehabbing as a reliever now and though he makes $12MM next year and has a history as a reliable starter he can't be expected to return to the rotation. He will pitch out of the bullpen to avoid surgery, so unless he comes to spring training feeling stronger than expected, he'll be in the 'pen. Luke Hochevar is also on the DL, but showed promise (6.6 K/9, 3.2 BB/9) before an elbow strain sidelined him. Hochevar should join Greinke in the Royals' 2011 rotation.

After those three pitchers, there's much uncertainty. Bruce Chen has provided the Royals with serviceable innings as a swingman this year. They could bring him back in a similar capacity for 2011, but Chen doesn't change the Royals' long term plans.

Kyle Davies and Brian Bannister both go to arbitration for the third time this winter, but won't necessarily be tendered contracts. They have ERAs over 5.00 and will each make over $2MM next year if offered arbitration. Bannister is currently on the DL rehabbing from rotator cuff tendinitis and a strong September would go a long way toward preventing a non-tender.

Recent acquisition Sean O'Sullivan and former first-rounders Bryan Bullington and Philip Humber have all started games for the Royals this year, with varying degrees of success. Humber has looked good in 10.2 major league innings this year and he struck out four times as many batters as he walked at Triple A (though it was his fourth stint at the minors' highest level).

But the Royals' hopes rest in the minor leagues. They have standout position players – Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer in particular – and a group of exciting young arms. At this point, however, the Royals' pitching prospects don't seem likely to contribute much to the 2011 rotation.

Aaron Crow, Tim Melville and John Lamb are promising, but probably need more seasoning. Danny Duffy and Chris Dwyer have each handled AA batters well, but neither has started more than five games at the level. Top prospect Mike Montgomery made a successful leap to AA this year, but the Royals are still monitoring his innings carefully and it would be unfair to expect him to debut in the majors before late 2011. Edgar Osuna isn't the prospect Montgomery is, but he has struck out three times as many hitters as he has walked in the upper minors and posted a season ERA of 4.17.

At this point, it appears that Greinke and Hochevar will figure prominently into the rotation while the organization's best prospects develop in the minor leagues. The Royals will likely look for some stabilizing inning eaters, whether that means bringing back some combination of Chen, Davies and Bannister, or signing a free agent.

 

The Indians’ 2011 Rotation

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Fausto Carmona will be starting for the Indians next year, but after him, there's a lot of uncertainty in Cleveland's projected rotation. The team's 2011 options are generally young, promising and unproven; here's a more detailed look.

Mitch Talbot has probably pitched well enough to earn a rotation spot for 2011 and the early returns are good for Jeanmar Gomez and Josh Tomlin. Both Gomez and Tomlin have ERAs under 4.00, but neither pitcher has started more than six games, so manager Manny Acta can't pencil them into his 2011 plans quite yet. David Huff has started regularly for the Indians, but opponents have hit him hard, so the Indians recently demoted him to the minors. Justin Masterson has followed up a strong 2009 season with a mediocre 2010 campaign (5.33 ERA) that probably doesn't guarantee him a rotation spot next year.

It seems like Carlos Carrasco has been around for a while, but the right-hander is still just 23. Carrasco has spent the season at Triple A Columbus, where he has a 3.77 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 143.1 innings. It seems like Carrasco, who the Indians acquired in the Cliff Lee trade, will be ready to start for the Indians in 2011.

Like Carrasco, Corey Kluber joined the Indians organization after the Tribe traded away a veteran starter. The Indians obtained Kluber, who is now pitching at Akron (AA), in the Jake Westbrook trade. The 24-year-old right-hander has a season ERA of 3.61 with 9.6 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9, though most of that came when Kluber was in the Padres organization.

Let's not rule out Zach McAllister, who the Indians acquired for Austin Kearns. The 22-year-old posted a 5.09 ERA at Triple A and Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer noted on Twitter tonight that the Indians may call McAllister up in September.

Two other prospects are just as promising, but not quite as ready. Hector Rondon broke out last season with a 3.38 ERA, 8.4 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 in the upper minors, but the 22-year-old righty hasn't pitched since May because of forearm tightness. He is not a sure thing, but could start for the Indians at some point in 2011.

Alex White is holding his own at Akron in his first pro season. The 2009 first-rounder has a season ERA of 2.57 with 7.0 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 across two levels. He doesn't turn 22 until this weekend, so the Indians may want him to pick up more minor league seasoning. Some 2009 draftees – Mike Minor and Mike Leake come to mind – are already contributing in the majors, but most players take more time to develop.

The Indians also have depth in the upper minors in the form of 22-year-old left-hander Scott Barnes and 23-year-old right-hander Paolo Espino. Barnes has posted 8.0 K/9 and a 4.57 ERA at Akron and Espino has a 4.25 ERA between Akron and Columbus.

The Indians signed Carl Pavano and Kevin Millwood to short-term deals in recent years, so they could make similar offers this offseason. MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince wrote today that he "wouldn't be surprised to see the Indians shop for a free agent veteran to eat up some innings." Perhaps Westbrook could return to Cleveland, where he has spent most of his pro career. After the Indians traded him, Westbrook suggested he'd be open to re-signing in Cleveland. 

The Indians will head into 2011 with a promising but unproven group of prospects and young major leaguers, so when Chris Antonetti takes over as GM after the season, he may look to sign an innings eater to complement the team's stable of youngsters.

The Yankees’ 2011 Rotation

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Continuing MLBTR's look at next season's probable and possible starting rotations, today we look at a staff that will likely be one of, if not the most, expensive in baseball.  The Yankees spent a little more than $63.5MM on their top five starters in 2010, and that total looks to go up next season.

Three spots in the rotation are secure.  C.C. Sabathia's 2.34 K/BB ratio is on pace to be his lowest since 2004 and his 3.0 BB/9 is on pace to be his highest since that same '04 season, but while these peripherals are of a minor concern when you have $115MM committed to a pitcher through 2015, Sabathia is still one of the top pitchers in the American League.

A.J. Burnett has had his typical hot-and-cold season, posting a 6.7 K/9 ratio that would be his lowest since 2001.  New York fans can expect to look forward to the Burnett rollercoaster of form for the next 3+ seasons.

Phil Hughes' first season as a regular starter got off to a tremendous start with a 2.70 ERA in April and May, though his June and July (5.34 ERA) were a different story.  The Yankees are already being cautious about their young star's innings total and have put an unofficial "Hughes Rules" cap of 170 IP on the right-hander for the rest of the season.  Hughes may be limited for the rest of 2010, but will be back in full force for next season.  He will reach arbitration for the first time this winter, so it's possible the Yankees may explore a longer-term deal to cover his arb years.

The fourth spot in the rotation will depend on the feelings of Andy Pettitte.  As he has for the last four winters, the veteran left-hander will decide on whether he wants to retire, or sign a one-year deal with the Yankees.  Pettitte can certainly still pitch — he's enjoying one of his best seasons (a 2.88 ERA, 2.37 K/BB ratio in 18 starts) though he's currently sidelined with a groin injury.  If Pettitte does return, he'll get a pay bump from the $11.75MM contract he signed last December, but the Yankees surely wouldn't mind giving a raise to a franchise stalwart that can still perform at a high level.

It's almost a certainty that Javier Vazquez won't be back with the Bronx Bombers next season.  The only question now seems to be whether the Yankees will offer arbitration to the free agent right-hander, as Vazquez is still hanging onto a Type A free agent status. 

Depending on what Pettitte does, at least one spot in the New York rotation is available for 2011.  It's widely expected that the Yankees will make a hard push to fill that spot with Cliff Lee when he reaches free agency this winter.  (They almost had him at the deadline had their trade with Seattle not fallen through at the eleventh hour.)  The Rangers have expressed their interest in re-signing Lee now that their ownership transfer has been settled and certainly other teams will look into the left-hander, but given that Lee will command a contract worth more than $20MM per year, it gives the Yankees the obvious advantage if things turn into a bidding war.

So if Lee (or another free agent starter) replaces Vazquez and Pettitte returns, New York is set.  If Pettitte retires, then he will likely let the Yankees know early in the offseason so the club can plan accordingly.  With the Bombers' big payroll, there's really no shortage of options for what they could do to fill that fifth spot in the rotation.  Free agents with AL East experience like Bronson Arroyo or Ted Lilly could be of interest, or perhaps the Yankees could go after a veteran with something to prove coming off an injury (i.e. Brandon Webb or Aaron Harang) who could be had at a small discount.

With Alex Rodriguez going on the DL today, 23-year-old Ivan Nova has been called up and will be inserted into the rotation for at least one start.  Nova has had an impressive year at Triple-A Scranton, posting a 2.86 ERA and 2.4 K/BB ratio in 23 starts.  If Nova does well in his late-season audition he could get a chance at more work in September should Hughes get shut down or have a turn skipped.  It's hard to see Nova or any other young starter, however, be given a clear shot at a rotation spot next year since the Yankees don't really have any starting prospects who aren't at least a year away from serious consideration.

Sergio Mitre and Dustin Moseley have made spot starts for New York this season and could be re-signed to provide rotation depth for 2011.  Both men are definitely backup options and could also be replaced by similar low-cost veteran pitchers that can alternate between the rotation and the bullpen as the situation warrants.

The Giants’ 2011 Rotation

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Of all the 2011 rotations we've examined to date, no team's starting five appears more locked in than that of the San Francisco Giants. Their current rotation has been both healthy and effective, and all five starters are under team control for at least two more years.

Last year's ace, Tim Lincecum, actually has the worst ERA (3.62) among Giants' starters, and his slight dip in velocity and decline in production is a little worrisome. Still, he's striking out more than a batter per inning, and should be fine if he's healthy. Lincecum will make $13MM next season and then will be eligible for arbitration twice more, as a Super Two. He'll be expensive by the time he hits free agency, but San Francisco is one team that can afford the cost.

Behind him, Matt Cain is locked up through 2012 on an affordable contract, and Barry Zito, while not quite as affordable, has at least been effective this year (3.56 ERA). He'll make $18.5MM in 2011 and is under contract through 2013. At the fourth spot in the rotation, Jonathan Sanchez has two more years of arbitration eligibility remaining. He's enjoying a successful 2010 (3.47 ERA, 9.4 K/9) and will be in line for a solid raise next year, but since he's only earning $2.1MM this season, his price tag won't be exorbitant.

While the aforementioned four have been rotation mainstays for some time, the team's fifth starter, Madison Bumgarner is a newcomer. Having just turned 21 this month, the left-hander has already showed that he deserves a starting spot in 2011. In 11 starts this year, he's recorded a 3.20 ERA and displayed outstanding control (2.3 BB/9). Barring a setback or injury, Bumgarner figures to round out the club's 2011 rotation.

Just because the team's rotation appears set now, however, doesn't mean there won't be changes. While Sanchez has been the subject of a few trade rumors, it's unlikely any of San Francisco's starting pitchers will be dealt. But injuries are impossible to predict, and as we've seen in their dogged pursuit of outfield bats this summer, the Giants are a club that values depth.

The team's top pitching prospect, 2009 first-rounder Zach Wheeler, is still in A ball, meaning he's probably at least a year or two away yet. The Giants' higher levels of the minors aren't exactly flush with young major-league-ready arms, but players like Clayton Tanner and Henry Sosa could be ready to contribute at the big-league level next year, if they're needed. Neither prospect, of course, is in the same league as Bumgarner: the 22-year-old Tanner has seen his strikeout rate decline significantly at Double-A Richmond, and may need another year of minor-league seasoning, while Sosa, 25, has pitched primarily out of the bullpen for the first time this year at Triple-A Fresno.

With few viable insurance starters in the Giants' minor league system, the team could look to the free agent market this winter. They likely won't be targeting any elite pitchers or even mid-rotation starters, but one or two journeymen on minor league contracts could be useful if the club is bit by the injury bug in 2011. Until then, the Giants and their fans should enjoy a group of arms that may not come cheap, but has fewer question marks than virtually every rotation in the league.

The Rockies’ 2011 Rotation

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Ubaldo Jimenez, Jhoulys Chacin and Jason Hammel will probably be in the Rockies' 2011 rotation, but the remaining two spots are considerably harder to predict. Jimenez is a Cy Young candidate, Chacin is striking out a batter per inning as a 22-year-old and Hammel is putting together a second consecutive solid season. The Rockies could theoretically fill the rest of the rotation from within, but that's not necessarily what they'll do. Here are their options:

Esmil Rogers and Aaron Cook are under team control for 2011, so Jim Tracy could just slot the pair into the rotation. It's not that simple, though. Rogers recently joined the rotation after pitching out of the bullpen for much of the season and Cook, who is under contract for 2011 at $9.25MM, could become trade bait. The Rockies entertained the idea of trading him this summer, so there's no guarantee that he starts next year in Colorado. 

This could be the final season in Denver for two of the team's most recognizable left-handers. The Rockies have a $7MM option for Jeff Francis but they may decide that's too much to commit to a pitcher who missed all of last year and much of this year with injuries. Francis is on the DL with left shoulder soreness now, but he has struck out three times as many batter as he has walked, so the 29-year-old can pitch when healthy. 

Another left-hander, Jorge de la Rosa, is sure to hit free agency after the season. He missed time early in the year with a finger injury, but has posted solid numbers since. The 29-year-old has a 4.74 ERA with 8.7 K/9 and 4.9 BB/9 in 68.1 innings, which should be enough to attract serious interest in the offseason.

The Rockies probably can't count on Greg Reynolds and Christian Friedrich, a pair of prospects who don't appear to be big-league ready. Many expected Reynolds, the second overall selection in the 2006 draft, to be an option by now, but he is still pitching at AA and his numbers are just OK, so the Rockies certainly aren't about to hand him a rotation spot. 

Friedrich, 23, entered the season as the 33rd-best prospect in the game, according to Baseball America. He has been hittable at AA and his 8.0 K/9 strikeout rate is impressive, but not as eye-catching as the career 12.0 K/9 rate he had going into the season. Meanwhile, 2009 first rounder Tyler Matzek is striking opponents out, but he has posted 6.2 BB/9 batter so far and certainly needs seasoning. 

Letting Francis and De La Rosa walk would leave the Rockies with a thin rotation, especially if they trade Cook. Their best pitching prospects are either adjusting to the upper minors or still in the lower minors, so it's hard to imagine immediate help coming from the system. 

Troy Renck of the Denver Post suggested on Twitter that the Rockies will add a veteran pitcher to next year's rotation. It does seem likely that the Rockies will pursue one or more starting pitchers this offseason, whether that means bringing back Francis, bidding on De La Rosa, or pursuing a different free agent starter.

The Phillies’ 2011 Rotation

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The Phillies' 2011 rotation won't be hard to assemble, will be expensive and should be effective. The combination of Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, Cole Hamels and Joe Blanton will cost the Phillies $56MM next season – more than the Padres, Pirates or Marlins will spend on their entire teams this year. That's an expensive front four, but the group should also be durable and effective. 

Halladay is arguably the best pitcher in the game and Oswalt and Hamels are in the midst of characteristically strong seasons. That trio is tough to beat, even if Blanton doesn't rebound from his career high 5.54 ERA. 

This year, Charlie Manuel has called on Jamie Moyer and Kyle Kendrick to fill out the rotation. Moyer, a free agent this offseason, is out indefinitely with a left elbow injury, but Kendrick has been effective in spite of his low strikeout rate (4.5 K/9). He has a 4.45 ERA thanks to his ability to limit walks (2.4 BB/9) and induce enough ground balls (44% ground ball rate).

Should the Phillies need to call on a minor leaguer next year, they'll have a few options. Right-handers Drew Carpenter and Vance Worley have been effective in the upper minors this year and both have pitched in the majors. Worley, still just 22, could become a back-of-the-rotation starter, according to pre-season analysis from Baseball America. Carpenter, who is two and a half years older than Worley, is now putting together his second consecutive solid season at Triple A Lehigh Valley, so he provides Philadelphia with another option.

The Phillies can bring their entire rotation back for 2011 and they have minor leaguers who are ready to contribute if called upon. They don't need to pursue Moyer or other free agent pitchers this winter and they already have about $144MM committed to next year's payroll, so they wouldn't have much to spend on pitching if they wanted to.

Philadelphia traded talented players away to acquire the rotation they now have. It cost Kyle Drabek, J.A. Happ and then some to acquire Halladay and Oswalt. The result is a more predictable, more expensive rotation that could easily be one of the league's best. 

The Marlins’ 2011 Rotation

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When the Marlins locked up Josh Johnson by signing him to a four-year, $39MM contract, it was a rare display of long-term spending by Florida ownership. After all, besides Wes Helms, who is finishing up an inexpensive two-year deal, the only other Marlin signed to a multi-year contract is Hanley Ramirez, who inked a deal to remain with the club through 2014.

In Johnson, the Marlins knew they had a young arm capable of anchoring their staff, and the big right-hander has proven them right so far this year, recording a 2.27 ERA over 158.2 IP. If the Marlins aren't playoff contenders toward the end of his contract, the 26-year-old ace could eventually become tradeable. But he's going nowhere anytime soon; barring an injury, he'll get the ball on Opening Day in 2011.

Behind Johnson, Ricky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez, and Chris Volstad figure to have spots in the 2011 rotation virtually locked up. Volstad has underperformed in 2010 (4.91 ERA), but as a former first-round pick and a player under team control through 2014, the right-hander should have a reasonably long leash at the back of the rotation. Meanwhile, Nolasco and Sanchez have pitched admirably this season, and will both be arbitration-eligible for two more years before hitting free agency after the 2012 campaign.

Nolasco, however, is a trickier case than Sanchez for the cost-conscious Marlins. The 27-year-old, as a Super Two player, will be eligible for arbitration four times rather than the usual three, meaning he'll be more expensive for the Marlins to retain. Even this season, Nolasco is earning $3.8MM while Sanchez makes just $1.25MM. With Nolasco set to receive two more raises through arbitration, he could become a trade chip for Florida in either 2011 or 2012.

Nolasco will almost definitely be around to start 2011 though (the team hopes to explore an extension) which leaves only an empty fifth spot in the Marlins' rotation. Florida has shown a willingness to take fliers on one-year contracts for bullpen arms in recent years, but they've rarely relied on the free agent market for starters. As such, we can probably expect the club to fill their rotation with an in-house option.

Currently, Sean West and Alex Sanabia appear to be the favorites to compete for the Marlins' fifth starter job. The 24-year-old West has posted impressive numbers for Triple-A New Orleans this year, including a 3.12 ERA in 11 starts. However, in 22 career major league starts, the 6'8" southpaw has been mediocre (5.03 ERA). Sanabia, 21, has dominated Double-A and Triple-A opponents this year, with a 1.92 ERA and just 1.7 BB/9 in 16 starts, and has also spent a little time with the big league club. Like Volstad, these two should get a longer look from the Marlins, in hopes that their minor league successes translate to the majors. West, in particular, could be valuable to Florida as the lone left-hander in a righty-heavy rotation.

If the Marlins require more depth, they have a few other possibilities in the minors, including a pair of 24-year-olds, Elih Villanueva and Tom Koehler. The two right-handers have combined to pitch over 300 Double-A innings between them this year, with a 2.15 ERA for Villaneuva and 2.88 for Koehler. Other familiar names in Florida's minor league system include Brian Lawrence, Tom Mastny, and Andrew Miller, though if they're still with Florida in 2011, none of them are likely to be more than potential injury replacements.

Overall, the Marlins' rotation is in decent shape. Johnson is one of the best starters in baseball, and the team has affordable second and third starters in Nolasco and Sanchez. If Volstad, West, and Sanabia prove they can build on the potential they've occasionally displayed, the Marlins should field a 2011 rotation that will be tough on opponents from front to back.

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