The Red Sox have shown interest in Matt Guerrier, according to Alex Speier of WEEI.com. The reliever is a free agent for the first time this winter, after earning $3.15MM in 2010, his final year of arbitration eligibility.
Guerrier, who has spent his entire big league career in Minnesota, was not offered arbitration by the Twins this week. As a Type A free agent, the right-hander may have had trouble securing a deal with another team if he turned down arbitration. With no arb offer though, the 32-year-old is free to sign with any club without costing them a draft pick.
MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith examined Guerrier's free agent stock earlier this week, concluding that the righty may not receive multiyear offers due to some mediocre peripheral numbers and a deep free agent class. However, as a workhorse that has made at least 73 appearances in each of the last four seasons, Guerrier should draw plenty of interest on a short-term deal. For their part, the Red Sox are looking to improve a bullpen that ranked 12th in the AL in ERA (4.24) in 2010.
Could be a nice pickup. He has been decent the last 4 yrs.
Yes, he has. I’ve been thinking he would be a nice target for Boston and now that they won’t be losing a pick if they were to sign him, why not? As long as the money is reasonable I don’t see why they don’t try to work out a deal with a few relievers.
If they could get him on a 1yr w/option or even a two year deal at a reasonable price it’d be a good signing. He’s not an eight inning guy but he’s exactly what the Red Sox need. Reliable guys to get them to Bard and Pap.
It’s tough to find “reliable guys”, though. He’s made a lot of appearences over the last few years and that sometimes leads to off years. I think he’ll be okay, but that’s why finding a good bullpen is so hard. Bullpen arms vary from year to year.
it is true personally id want them to try for former closer type guys who can handle pressure who knows if he would handle boston cuz minnesota is quite different
It would be nice to have a steady, reliable arm that can be used in the 6th-7th inning. Considering how awful the bullpen was last year, this would be much needed.
Guerrier against AL East teams:
Yankees – .278/.354/.528
Rays – .222/.310/.397
Jays – .326/.360/.467
O’s – .243/.303/.314
Collectively, AL East teams have hit .267/.331/.426 off him. If I was a Sox fan, I’d be OK with this signing.
Could be a nice move for the Sox, especially if Okajima does not come back to form in 2011.
Better yet, give him Okajima’s salary (or slightly more), and get rid of Okajima.
ha you cant just give him okajima’s salary. nice try though 😉
Technically, you could. Okajima’s a non-tender candidate.
Better yet, give him Okajima’s salary (or slightly more), and get rid of Okajima.
I would say 2/7MM sounds reasonable
As a Twins fan, I sorta think he should top Joaqiun Benoit’s deal. Some might say he’s not an eigth inning guy or a closer, but i think he’d do fine being a setup man in the right situation. Just my opinion. Feel free to go off on me now.
I think you make a valid point. Theres going to be a lot of bullpen arms getting around what Benoit got.
I think you make a valid point. Theres going to be a lot of bullpen arms getting around what Benoit got.
benoit did well for the rays last year but doubt he will be great for 3 years who knows with the market id say he can land a solid deal wherever he signes
As a Twins fan, I sorta think he should top Joaqiun Benoit’s deal. Some might say he’s not an eigth inning guy or a closer, but i think he’d do fine being a setup man in the right situation. Just my opinion. Feel free to go off on me now.
Guerrier to Houston for 3/15….Drayton McLane’s way of boosting the value of the franchise.
I’m a twins fan, Guerrier has been extremely frustrating…He seemed extremely unrelible in big pressure situations…The sox may be a good situation because they would only require him in 6th 7th inning role but in case of emergency, pray he doesnt go in, I’ve seen many long balls he has given up in close-game situations
you should really look at numbers when it comes to relievers because it’s obvious that the bad innings are gonna stick in your mind. Who remembers the guy who gets three ground balls in the 7th inning?
well obviously but you want numbers he had 7 losses as a reliever which is good for number 1 in the AL tied with a Mr. Papelbon, he is tied for 3rd most blown saves with 6 and he isnt even a closer, wanna guess who are number 1 and two on that list…Papelbon and Bard with 8 and 7 respectively, so if the sox sign guerrier their three top relievers will have a combined 21 blown saves and papelbon and guerrier alone would combine for 14 total losses, that doesnt scream solid back end of the bullpen
I just hope the Sox don’t try to go cheap with the bullpen again like they did this year. The pen is what killed them, even more than the injuries.
It’s no coincidence the top 4 bullpens in the league all made the postseason. So listen up Theo, don’t blow your entire budget on Werth or Crawford. Spend some of it on a couple quality relievers, like you should have done last winter. Imagine if we had Soriano, we certainly would have made the playoffs.
What?
The Red Sox went into the season with arguably the best pitching staff, bullpen included, in the major leagues. Papelbon was an elite closer. Bard was a very promising setup guy. Okajima and Ramirez were thought of as eighth inning guys. Delcarmen was solid as well.
Papelbon regressed, Bard established himself as an elite reliever, Okajima regressed exponentially. Ramirez and Delcarmen both performed far below expectations and were traded.
The only thing I guess you could say they went cheap on was the 12th pitcher, the swingman/last man in the pen. Like most teams, they went into camp with a few guys competing for that role and Scott Atchison won.
And by the way, Atchison finished with a 4.50 and was pretty much their third best reliever after Bard and Papelbon.
I’m guessing you didn’t follow the Red Sox in 2009, so take a look at the combined second half numbers of Okajima (1.565 WHIP), DelCarmen (1.885) and Ramirez (1.645). They were all beyond brutal, and were major red flags going into spring training this year. Okajima’s delivery was no longer deceptive, Delcarmen’s health was questionable, and Ramirez was overmatched pitching in the AL East.
Then take a look at the two solid relievers that left (Wagner, Saito).
Then take a look at the guys that were brought in with the hope of replacing them (Schoeneweis, Embree, Bonser, Nelson, Manuel, Shouse, etc).
The fact that Atchison was indeed their third most reliable reliever says a lot more about the awful bullpen than it does about Atchison.
Clearly Theo ran out of budget money last offseason, thought he could get away with doing nothing more than replace Saito & Wagner with a bunch of questionable journeymen, then did absolutely nothing to improve the pen midseason because there was no money to be spent (ie: Kerry Wood).
The disaster known as the 2010 Red Sox bullpen was epic, and entirely preventable.
Once again your issue was sample size. For Delcarmen you used a 26 inning sample, for Oki 23 IP, and ramon 31 IP. That’s way too small for a usable sample. You can’t judge a pitcher fully on a sample of 30 innings.
Since each of the pitchers generally pitch one inning per game, how is it any different than judging a starting pitcher based on just 30 starts/games/performances? Each game is a performance, if a reliever has 30 performances (appearances) and 20 of them are bad, how is it any different than a starting pitcher who gives up 5+ runs in 20 out of 30 starts?
That is EXACTLY why relievers are so important, and also why they are so volatile. It’s critical they pitch well because they have such a limited opportunity to perform.
What do you consider an appropriate sample size to judge a reliever? 200 innings? So we are to tolerate 3 years of poor performance before we decide to let a reliever go? I don’t agree with that premise.
The same Ramon Ramirez who was key in winning the Giants a WS in the same year? That’s why its a dumb sample size…and for the last time, Soriano isn’t more valuable than CC Sabathia. Stop it. Your arguments can be disproven with a simple google search, you vastly overrate relievers.
dont compare a starter to a closer both have value in there own way your not gonna ask your closer to pitch 6 innings a game thats not there job there responsible to get the last 3 sometimes more outs if they struggle 1 out of 3 times per inning there not a good closer
The same Ramon Ramirez who pitched 4 of the worst postseason innings (6 ER, 5 hits, 2 Unintentional Walks, 2 HR, HBP, 1.75 WHIP) you will ever see?
As for the value of a top closer, are you familiar with WPA? Check out this fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&…
While you are at it, check out this as well fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&…
Did RR pitch in the playoffs? Don’t remember seeing him.
Posting this again, but without the links to Fangraphs.
The same Ramon Ramirez who pitched four of the most brutal postseason innings you’ll ever see? He helped the Giants make the playoffs, but he did everything possible to PREVENT the Giants from winning in the postseason.
As for Soriano’s value, check out 2010 WPA (Win Probability Added) leaders and you’ll see he is ranked higher than Sabathia (Soriano is ranked #2 behind another closer, Soria). And while you are at it, check out 2009 WPA leaders to see how many relievers are listed near the top (4 out of the top 6 to be exact).
His WPA is so high because he pitches in the ninth inning.
If you’re going to push Fangraphs stats, don’t just cherry pick them. We’re discussing value here and Sabathia racked up 5.1 WAR while Soriano tallied 1.6 WAR, with essentially a perfect season for a closer.
Starters will always be more valuable than relievers. Recent research has also shown that despite bullpen roles changing over the years, the success rate of closed out games is the same for the past 60 years. What this tells us is that closers, relievers, defined roles, etc., really don’t matter nearly as much as we think they do.
Can you stack a bullpen with 19 year old AA arms and expect success? Most likely not. But if you put 7 capable big league experienced relievers out there, it will not make a significant difference in a good team.
And additionally, re: 2009 Red Sox bullpen.
You picked out WHIP as the telling statistic for the relievers. I’m not so sure why. The focus on the 2009 Red Sox, in retrospect, was the distinct lack of defense. They were very, very poor defensively. This inflates the WHIP of the team collectively and thus makes it a poor statistic in this situation. In the case of Ramon Ramirez, it’s pretty much irrelevant as he had an extremely high strand rate that year (82%)
Okajima was not as good as he was in 07-08 but he was still a good reliever. Let’s leave the WEEI qualitative “omg ppl are figurin out his delivry!” theorem out of this, because it’s a load of garbage. He struck out 8 per 9 innings and like Ramirez, stranded 82% of his runners. Perhaps the most telling statistic for Okajima’s lack of success is his BABIP against. In 07-08, it was ~.260 In 09 and 10? ~.320. Batters were simply getting lucky when they made contact.
Delcarmen certainly had his ups and downs in Boston, having the most success in 2007, but never really overcoming injuries and pressure to perform in his hometown. He never harnessed his true potential in Beantown, and the Red Sox were simply hopeful that he would gain command of his closer-quality stuff in 2009. They had enough support in Pap, Bard, Okajima and Ramirez to ride it out with Delcarmen and hope he got (even) better.
*takes breath*
Funny, though, that he’s right. Their poor 20-something second half inning samples turned out to be extremely accurate predictors for 2010, didn’t they?
Problem is, now that V-Mart is gone, Theo has to replace that offensive production somehow, retool a joke outfield, and decide what to do with 1B/3B. Paying big money for bullpen arms is not the way to go. Though I would love seeing Downs or Soriano in a Sox uniform, Sox will most likely go with Type B guys that don’t cost draft picks to sign.
How is it a joke OF?
Drew, Nava, McDonald, Cameron, Van Every, Patterson, Reddick, Hermida … try to find an outfield on a contender that was worse, offensively or defensively.
I notice you left Ellsbury out (due to injury no doubt) but included Cameron who, though he played like 50 games, was hurt for most of those 50 games. Most defensive problems came with Hermida who is gone. I still hold out hope for Drew bouncing back and I don’t think 2010 should be used as a sign of things to come for Cameron. HE was just the recipient of bad luck with injuries.
No doubt Cameron will have a better season next year, if he can stay healthy. My concern is with his age, how much can you expect from a 38-year-old covering right field in Fenway? He’ll be a great platoon player, but I wouldn’t want him as a starter. 33-year-old Cameron, yes. 38-year-old Cameron, no.
As for Drew, most of his numbers have declined two years in a row. He’s driven in 64 or 68 runs in each of his 4 Red Sox seasons, that’s pretty consistent.
You’ll probably agree that pitching throughout the league has improved, it seems like pitchers are throwing a lot more strikes. That’s bad news for a guy like Drew, whose game is built around taking pitches. I think the umpires’ desire to quicken games has also contributed to more strikes being called, which is also bad news for Drew. As for his defense, overthrowing the cutoff guy or throwing to the wrong base or getting picked off while backpedaling to first base are all mental errors. They don’t show up in stats, and they aren’t easily rectified.
I read your posts and wonder how many times you were dropped on your head as a child.
contribute dude dont be a tool that was pathetic stay on topic
No doubt Cameron will have a better season next year, if he can stay healthy. My concern is with his age, how much can you expect from a 38-year-old covering right field in Fenway? He’ll be a great platoon player, but I wouldn’t want him as a starter. 33-year-old Cameron, yes. 38-year-old Cameron, no.
As for Drew, most of his numbers have declined two years in a row. He’s driven in 64 or 68 runs in each of his 4 Red Sox seasons, that’s pretty consistent.
You’ll probably agree that pitching throughout the league has improved, it seems like pitchers are throwing a lot more strikes. That’s bad news for a guy like Drew, whose game is built around taking pitches. I think the umpires’ desire to quicken games has also contributed to more strikes being called, which is also bad news for Drew. As for his defense, overthrowing the cutoff guy or throwing to the wrong base or getting picked off while backpedaling to first base are all mental errors. They don’t show up in stats, and they aren’t easily rectified.
Correct.
Hermedia is long gone and I believe Van Every only had last year left and he’s a FA too.
I know, not all of the players I listed are still with the team. They are simply – as a whole – what constituted a joke of an outfield this year. I suppose I could include an injured Ellsbury, but I am confident next year he can return to 2009 form.
cameron was just a stupid signing im a part sox fan and once he signed i knew it wasnt gonna end well with how well bay has done the previous year.ellsbury can bounce back and be the dynamic guy he was trade a few sign werth or crawford release cameron cuz you know no one is gonna want him with that salary.they do need to upgrade though it wasnt a great outfield last year
Agree that Cameron was a bad signing. One year would have been ok but 2 was a joke.
Camerons salary would look much better on Crawford or Werths paychecks this year.
Lackey was also a panic move. $17M to Lackey or $22M to Lee.
Theo must have figured that it was going to be a Tex situation, no matter how much money they put out Yankees would go higher.
I’m waiting to see which 1B we go out and give a multiyear deal to. I hear no 1B will be available next year.
How is it a joke OF?
Crawford in RF, Ellsbury in CF and a platoon of Cameron/Drew in LF would be a nice fix.
I wouldn’t mind giving Lowrie a shot at 3B, you really can’t lock up 1B or 3B for more than a year as long as they are trying to acquire Gonzalez.
I would have felt much better with Buck behind the plate than Salty, that’s a big gamble they are taking on a guy (Salty) who Nolan Ryan didn’t value much.
I think at this point their catching move was a mistake. Their are not too many all around catchers out there ( Mauer) so I would have gone with Salty and Martinez.
I would go with that except switch Crawford in LF and Cameron/Drew in RF as it’s been. Lowrie had some good numbers in 2010, but like you said, if they can’t trade for Gonzo, then a stopgap is the plan. I’d like to see what Salty does, they’re not gonna just hand the job to him unless they have some confidence, though he won’t replace V-Mart’s bat.
Theo has gone on record as saying he would be comfortable with Salty as the everyday catcher next season. Whether he is telling the truth or simply posturing, who knows. Keeping the overall budget in mind, I wouldn’t be surprised if Salty and Tek are the two catchers on opening day. The Sox have to save money somewhere in order to fill other problem positions (outfield, bullpen, etc).
Personally, I think Theo’s plan entering the offseason was to let VMart walk (which is why he offered him only a 2-year contract during the season) and sign Buck to mentor Salty. The Marlins blew that plan out of the water when they offered Buck a larger contract than what Theo anticipated.
Sox need to get Downs and Guerrier for the pen, sign Werth and decide what their going to do at 3d or 1st.
I agree with JW. How can you call our outfield a joke? Besides the fact that we sustained a lot of injuries out there, even the fill-ins were pretty good. Drew had a down year, but wasn’t bad. Ells will be returning, or be getting traded for someone good. We got 27 HRs out of fill-ins Hall and McDonald. McDonald was tied for 4th in number of outfield assists. I just don’t see the outfield as our spending priority. I’d rather see them spend big on the pen.
Drew is inconsistent and is coming off one of his worst offensive seasons. Cameron and Ellsbury missed 160 games between them. Ellsbury is no joke if he returns to 2009 form, I don’t have confidence in Drew and Cameron. Thankfully both will be gone after 2011. So you’re looking at Kalish, McDonald, Nava and Patterson again? Do you seriously want to roll the dice again? They played a role in 2010 but other than Kalish, they are NOT the future of the Red Sox. Go get Werth or Crawford, put Ellsbury in center (if he’s not traded) and split Cameron/Drew in RF. Kalish will start the year in AAA and can come up as a 4th or 5th. Theo has never spent big on the bullpen and he won’t now.
Is that last sentence based on the assumption that Lucchino was mostly running the team during the 2003/2004 offseason? If so, then I agree.
Point taken, you’re meaning Foulke right? He was a closer. What I should have said is Theo and friends have never spent big on middle relief. Better?
Yup, Foulke immediately came to mind as well as Timlin, Embree, Howry, BH Kim and Ramiro Mendoza. However, all of them were acquired while Theo still had the training wheels on.
Ramiro Mendoza, $6.5M over two years … I almost forgot how brutal a signing that was.
I just can’t see Crawford playing LF, it would seem to be a waste of talent as he’s certainly better defensively than Drew & Cameron. I will say this, if Crawford is signed and Ellsbury returns we could have the best defensive outfield in baseball.
“What I should have said is Theo and friends have never spent big on middle relief.”
Outside of Brian Cashman and Dave Dombrowski, who does? Most sensible GM’s avoid shooting their payroll wad on guys who are, by virtue of their role, the dregs of MLB pitching (A middle reliever is someone who’s just not good enough to be a closer, who is someone who’s generally not good enough to be a starter).
Drew has been a consistent AL top 5 RF over the last 4 years, and I have no doubt he will continue to be so next season. I have lots of confidence in Kalish and McDonald as capable outfielders and hitters. Would I add a power bat if I could? Yes. But that would NEVER keep me from focusing on drastic improvement of the pen.
There’s no reason why we can’t spend $10MM per season to improve the relievers and still sign one F/A outfielder, plus one F/A infielder. We’ve got about $52MM free in the 2011 season budget ($185MM payroll), after picking up Papi’s option. I don’t see how improving the pen inhibits improving other aspects of our squad, whatsoever.
no dont spend 20 mil on the pen get a few guys but save some for a 1b or 3b
$20M goes a lot further than you would think. Soriano is the best relief pitcher on the market, he was probably the best last year as well and he only got 1/7.You could essentially go out and sign a decent 1B, 1 great reliever and 2 reliable arms for $20M.Look up the bullpen signings for last year, a lot of 1 year deals. Not many big deals.
Boston’s outfield had a combined .729 OPS which was 3rd-worst in the league. If they don’t improve it now, they will have a hard time improving it next winter when Drew and Cameron are both free agents. Kalish might be able to fill one of those positions, but he can’t fill both.
Who will be available next winter? Probably just Corey Hart, assuming Bautista signs an extension before becoming a free agent.
I think anyone would agree that an outfield of Ellsbury, Cameron and Drew is not a “joke” so just because two of the three spent most of the year on the DL doesn’t mean Theo has to “retool a joke outfield” all he would have to do is wait for spring and put the outfield he was supposed to have back out on the field. That’s not to say that I think he should, or will, stick with what he has for an outfield but assuming there aren’t three major injuries in the outfield again next year the outfield wouldn’t be a “joke” if he did.
In all due respect, I think you’re giving them too much credit. I’m not necessarily down on Ellsbury. Drew, while he has had a his moments, has been horribly inconsistent and not lived up to that contract; he’s 35 and has missed an AVG of 30 games each year he’s been in Boston. Cameron is 38 so you can’t expect a miracle from him in 2011. Prior to 2010 he’s missed an avg 20+ games in the previous 4 seasons. How do you interpret the 48 games he played, which was not impressive anyways (44 k’s and .729 OPS?). I understand your point to “see what might have been” but I think we saw that the current OF isn’t durable enough to get it done.
I really think taking anything from Cameron’s 2010 is unfair, even when he was playing (starting in spring training) he was playing with a torn abdominal muscle. Drew has absolutely been worth his contract, not the prototypical “hit 30 hrs batting .280” worth his contract but he is a consistently outstanding fielder, particularly in Fenway’s right field, and is an OPS machine. It would not be an all-star outfield but it would be far from a joke.
To say that they are not durable enough isn’t really fair either, Drew missing 30 games a year is a fair point but he is also there 130 games a year and is statistically worth more than his contract in those 130 games, Ellsbury has been injured once in his career, and even assuming Cameron can’t be counted on for 162 games anymore he would actually be a really good player to have in a platoon and would be easy to find someone to platoon with him.
Again I don’t think they will or should stick with this outfield, I’m just saying that in my opinion given the opportunity to play it wouldn’t be a joke.
I see where you’re coming from. Like I said, Drew certainly has had his moments, but for $14M a year, I would hope for a little more production and a little more consistency. He’s never had more than 68rbi, batted over .280 or played more than 140 games. Now I’m not in anyway saying the Sox should drop Drew or Cameron outright, rather they could be the platoon you just mentioned. Then they make a major play for Crawford or Werth. In 2012 you have an outfield of Crawford/Werth, Ellsbury and possibly Ryan Kalish who could be groomed to take over RF.
The bottom line is that without VMart and possibly without Beltre in 2011, the Sox WILL need the OF bats to step up production to replace that offense and I’m just not confident the current group can get it done.
That I can agree with, the only thing I took issue with was saying that the outfield is a joke, it’s certainly not ideal but I just thought you were overstating how bad it was.
See, there’s an inherent inconsistency here. Werth, who you are hot and bothered to add, has only averaged 5 more games per season in RF than Drew over the last 4 years (Drew 131/Werth 136). His numbers are not much better than Drew’s overall, and in certain key respects, aren’t better at all. Drew is far better with RISP than Werth. And Werth’s defense has fallen off a cliff in the last two years. Now, Werth’s agent is asking for $17MM+ per season over a 7 year contract, like the Matt Holliday contract. Its just not realistic or logically consistent. You can legitimately gripe about how much Drew is getting paid, but you really can’t gripe about his performance, because he’s been top 5 AL, all 4 years.
We could definitely use a few replacement power bats in our line up. I’d prefer them to be Beltre (re-signed) and A-Gonz (trade + contract extension). I see Cameron as our bench outfielder or a candidate for outright release. I would not platoon him.
Thank you for pointing this out!
I am actually a Drew supporter. He was not good in 2010, but was one of the best in 2009.
I wouldn’t mind giving Werth the same contract as Drew but the numbers you mentioned above are just absurd.
If Werth is worth 7/120, I can see why Arizona wants the farm for Upton.
I’m in complete agreement.
I completely agree. Drew is in the 5th year of his contract, it’s fair to say he has been a bust when you consider why Theo gave him the $70M contract. He can talk all he wants about how Drew is a good “complementary” player, but he was given that contract with the expectation that he would be a major run producer. He wasn’t given that contract to be a guy that strives for walks and then hopes somebody else drives him in. The poor RBI totals aren’t due to a lack of RISP when he steps to the plate, Drew simply doesn’t hit well when runners are in scoring position. Werth is even worse with RISP, I hope they don’t sign him because if they do it will be JD Drew all over again.
“The poor RBI totals aren’t due to a lack of RISP when he steps to the plate, Drew simply doesn’t hit well when runners are in scoring position.”
Completely and absurdly untrue. On his career, Drew has a career OPS of .901 with RISP with an overall line of .287/.408/.492, which is higher than his career line overall. Drew is actually a better hitter when men are on than not. I have never seen a Sox player with as many fanbase misconceptions about his qualities as J.D. Drew.
Completely agree, JD Drew has been a consistently above average to exceptional player for the Red Sox since he was signed. In 4 years, he posted WARs of 2.7, 2.7, 5.6 and 2.5 according to baseball reference. The fact that people continue to bash him based on RBI totals just shows willfull ignorance
And according to WAR, Ben Zobrist was the 2nd-most valuable position player in baseball last year.
What kind of season did he have this year? Did he live up to his 2009 WAR ranking?
But by all means, please continue to use that extremely flawed stat as your only basis for judging a player’s value.
Ben Zobrist also had an OPS of .948 in 2009, 9th in all of MLB.
What kind of season did he have this year? Did he live up to his 2009 OPS ranking?
So now we can discredit OPS too right?
Sure WAR may not be a 100% perfect way to judge a players performance but it is a whole lot better than RBIs.
My comments pertained to Drew’s 4 years in a Red Sox uniform, I couldn’t care less about what he did with the Dodgers and Cardinals as that is ancient history.
Last year Drew batted .213 with RISP, 6th worst in the league (min 125 PA’s).
This year he did slightly better, .257 which ranked him at #48 out of 81.
And for the last 3 seasons combined, he batted .251 with RISP compared to .282 with the bases empty – hardly numbers worthy of a $70M contract for a corner infielder with average defensive skills.
But by all means, please continue to use the distant past in your attempts to justify Drew’s current contract.
“Drew, while he has had a his moments, has been horribly inconsistent and not lived up to that contract; he’s 35 and has missed an AVG of 30 games each year he’s been in Boston.”
In regards to the fallacy that Drew is some big walking DL:
In his four years, Drew has missed, on average, 30.75 games a year.
Conversely, tough, gritty, hard-nosed, tough it out no matter what superman Kevin Youkilis has missed, on average, 30 games per year in that same timespan.
And since I’m reasonably sure you’ll come back to this crying “well he had a freak injury this year, you can’t count 2010!” Well, I’ve accounted for that too. If you’re going to discount Youk’s 2010 campaign, you likewise have to discount Drew’s 2008, which puts them slightly further apart, but nothing drastic: 23 games missed for Drew, 20 for Youk.
For further contrast, let’s look at Drew’s predecessor, Trot Nixon, whose B-R page has a sponsored statement of “a gritty, hard-nosed player who was always ready to do what was asked by the Red Sox.” This dude is pretty widely regarded as a tough, dirt dog that embodies what Sox players “should be” amongst most members of the fanbase. Nixon missed, on average, 41 games per season in his eight year Red Sox career, a staggering 57 games a year on average over his last four years.
Drew’s been no more of an injury risk than a guy like Youkilis and he’s not nearly the injury risk his predecessor was. The only things Drew has done “wrong” are getting the most money he could and replacing a fan favorite.
Let me ask you this. Between Youkilis and Drew, who has a clause in their contract in which Boston could opt out due to extensive DL time due to injury?
Completely irrelevant and a shallow way of dodging the point.
For the sake of delving into it, though, ou’re missing half of the clause. The clause was specifically an opt out for injury time lost relating to a specific shoulder injury. If Drew broke his foot and was out for two years, the Sox still couldn’t opt out. The clause was because the Sox found a concern with his shoulder and wanted protection from that concern before committing to a five year deal. It had nothing to do with an overall concern of durability, just his shoulder and hey, that shoulder has not caused him to miss any time.
That aside, it’s irrelevant to the discussion at hand, which is the misconception that Drew is the baseball equivelant of the villain from Unbreakable. He has missed almost the exact amount of time that Youkilis, a reputed tough guy, has over the course of his deal and has missed significantly less time than his predecessor had.
Haha yeah whatever you say, obviously you get MY point. The cause itself says all you need to know. Please point out where I called him Mr Glass. I said he’s missed an avg of 30 games a year as a member of the Red Sox. You can draw all the conclusions you want from that statement but you cannot refute. Whether it’s relevant or irrelevant to the discussion at hand in itself is irrelevant. I also didn’t force you to reply 20 times to each of my posts either. Take care.
Completely irrelevant and a shallow way of dodging the point.
For the sake of delving into it, though, ou’re missing half of the clause. The clause was specifically an opt out for injury time lost relating to a specific shoulder injury. If Drew broke his foot and was out for two years, the Sox still couldn’t opt out. The clause was because the Sox found a concern with his shoulder and wanted protection from that concern before committing to a five year deal. It had nothing to do with an overall concern of durability, just his shoulder and hey, that shoulder has not caused him to miss any time.
That aside, it’s irrelevant to the discussion at hand, which is the misconception that Drew is the baseball equivelant of the villain from Unbreakable. He has missed almost the exact amount of time that Youkilis, a reputed tough guy, has over the course of his deal and has missed significantly less time than his predecessor had.
werth rauch barajas and a mediocre 1st basemen till adrian and prince are free agents is the way to go save money for a superstar next year no need for the overspending i hope they get downs though
Sounds good. Maybe Lee on a one year deal.
I would pass on Barajas, rather have Tek on the cheap to be honest and I’m not even a fan. Hoping the Sox can find something in a trade, I’m a big fan of Ross in ATL.
Really really like Rauch. Only a few guys on the market I like better but he might end up being the better value.
“Hoping the Sox can find something in a trade, I’m a big fan of Ross in ATL.”
No kidding?
Relievers are volatile. You can’t just go out and offer those guys like Soriano or Benoit large amounts of money because almost 99% of the time they end up as flops (See K-Rod, Shields, ect.). Then 3 years from now you same guys will be killing Theo for all these bad bullpen moves.
It is much smarter to buy 10 guys with upside because chances are atleast 2 will work out. 2010 was just an example of when it didn’t work but cheap bullpen guys are a lot smarter to invest in. The sample sizes with relievers are so small that the difference between a mediocre reliever putting up a 4.00 ERA season and a 2.00 ERA season is minuscule over the course of 162 game season. The difference in lights out Okajima in 2007 (2.22 ERA) and bad Okajima (4.50 ERA) in 2010 is just 6 ER. Certainly he threw less innings in 2010 but had he finished the year strong the difference still wouldn’t have been too big. There is no reason to attempt to buy good relievers, good relievers will normally come to you.
I agree about the volatility, which is all the more reason why the consistently good relievers (and there are few) have high value and therefore should be well compensated. Would the Sox have won in ’04 without Foulke? Absolutely not.
Let’s face it, the reason there are so few good middle relievers/setup guys is because if a pitcher is very good he will either be a starter or a closer. That’s why Wagner left, because he wanted to be a closer. So when you’ve got only a select few good relievers who don’t demand to close games (ie: Benoit, Downs) it’s difficult to acquire them without spending a lot.
BTW – ERA really isn’t a good stat for relievers, since they often come in during the middle of an inning and leave during the middle of an inning.
All pitchers want to be starters first because that’s wear the money is, then closer, and last relief.
When they were trying to decide whether Papelbon should be a starter or closer, he absolutely wanted to be a closer. If he were a slightly above-average starter, would he be making as much as he has been through arbitration? Doubtful.
Relievers are very volatile, but I think the Sox have to buy at least two of them this year. The pen was so awful that it just destroyed our chances to compete with the Rays and Yanks.
Guerrier is not expensive at $4MM/yr. He doesn’t cost any draft picks. He’s probably gettable on a 1 yr. + option or 2 year contract, so its not a long-term commitment. He’s an inning eater, who can usually get you through those 6th and 7th inning bridges to Bard and Papelbon.
While the numerical difference between Okajima’s performances may be small, they were physically and emotionally DEVASTATING. Watching him dissemble, losing games we had well in hand, erradicated a ton of momentum.
You’ve simply got to allow Tito to have reliable options to go to, once the starter loses his strength or control.
I actually didn’t read the top fully through and stopped at where it said Guerrier was a type A but didn’t read to where it said he didn’t get offered arb so that was my fault. I don’t mind getting Guerrier if he doesn’t cost picks too.
“Certainly he threw less innings in 2010 but had he finished the year strong the difference still wouldn’t have been too big.”
The most telling indicator of this being an accurate assesment is that it is 100% correct. How can I say that with certainty? Because he DID finish the season strong. In his last fifteen appearances of the season, he posted an ERA of 1.38 and a WHIP of 1.000. His biggest problem last year was he got killed on the road. .999 road OPS against versus a .700 home OPS against.
Cheap? Atichson worked out well after he settled in. All the high priced relievers we had did nothing.
Having a 4.97 ERA in September and 4.31 ERA after the all-star break is not settling in well. Atchison is awful.
Wasn’t Papelbon the only high priced reliever the Sox had last year…or am I missing someone?
Basically the only reliable arms the Sox have are Bard and Papelbon. The only internal option is Doubront but he is a starter. Sox are in need of 2-3 bullpen arms and they have to get them through either free agency or trades.
I think you’re being too hard on Atchison. Look at his numbers without September and they’re pretty decent for a middle reliever. By the end of the year he had been jerked around between so many roles and ridden into the ground because Francona had no one else to turn to.
Absolutely. Atchison was rode far too hard late in the season because everyone else was a disaster. Not to mention that Atchison had two ridiculous losses at the end. He literally threw two pitches that were high and more than 6″ off the plate to two hitters who happened to have swung at them and lucked them into the stands.
The absolute worst outcome I’ve ever seen happen to a guy who purposefully threw the ball in a virtually unhittable place, to hitters who weren’t using tennis raquets.
The only thing hard on Atchison is trying to make an out. He really wasn’t good, he had one good stretch during the season that actually brought his ERA way down. It was in June or July. Take that out and his ERA would have been about 6.
I completely agree, and when Atchison pitched well this season it wasn’t exactly in high-leverage situations.
I just hope the Sox don’t try to go cheap with the bullpen again like they did this year. The pen is what killed them, even more than the injuries.
It’s no coincidence the top 4 bullpens in the league all made the postseason. So listen up Theo, don’t blow your entire budget on Werth or Crawford. Spend some of it on a couple quality relievers, like you should have done last winter. Imagine if we had Soriano, we certainly would have made the playoffs.
I think the area the Sox need the greatest improvement is the bullpen. I know everyone says it is a waste to go out and spend money on a high priced bullpen arm…but if the difference between what the Sox have and what the Sox could sign, is the difference between third place in the AL East and a playoff spot, why not go out and spend.
I hope the Sox trade Papelbon. Papelbon will get about $10-12 in arb., so this money could be used towards 2-3 bullpen arms.
Downs, Frasor, Wheeler, Guerrier, Fuentes, Rauch, Soriano…if the Sox could add 2-3 of these guys to Bard in the Bullpen, they would pretty much be assured the best bullpen in baseball, even if one of them doesn’t work out.
Bard (.5M), Rauch (4-5M), Downs (5.5-7M), Soriano (7.5-9M), Guerrier (3.5-4.5M) would be in the $20.5-25M range.
Bard (.5M), Papelbon (10-12M), Guerrier (3.5-4.5M), Okajima (3-3.5M), Atchison (.5M) would be in the $17.5-22M range.
I think there is a lot more value in that first group of players.
The first situation assumes you can trade papelbon without eating any of his salary, which I don’t see as possible.
There are a couple routes I think Theo could take…
1 – Non tender Papelbon. Adds another bullpen arm to free agency.
2 – Trade Papelbon for another position of need.
3 – Add money and trade Papelbon for decent prospects.
4 – Trade Papelbon for ok prospects.
I agree. If we trade Paps, we’d get an arm and have to eat probably half the salary. So maybe we save $6MM. Enough to sign one of the mid-market relievers.
One thing that I think plays into this that people are not mentioning is this: One of the best ways to improve your bullpen is to improve your starting rotation. :O) The Sox have two legitimate aces (IMNSHO) in the rotation: Lester and Buchholz. Then two guys who have the ability to pitch at near-ace status, Beckett and Lackey. IF they are all healthy AND pitching well (unlike 2010), the bullpen will not be used nearly as much. And a bullpen pitching an average of 1 1/2 innings a night is going to do a lot better than they would if they have to pitch three innings a night, as your better arms can pitch more often, and everyone is less taxed. So, even Beckett and/or Lackey having a bounceback season could do wonders for Boston’s bullpen. It will likely take more than that, but it can’t hurt!
Signing Lee would help the bullpen since a lot of nights he was on the mound, you wouldn’t need a bullpen.
1 – Lee
2 – Lester
3 – Buchholz
4 – Beckett
5 – Lackey
7th – Downs
8th – Bard
9th – Soriano
One can dream, right?!
i should do that in a video game i do like fantasy draft myself usually go for the younger guys who have upside
I said one can dream…
If the Sox don’t tender a contract to Papelbon or Okajima, give DiceK to a team in the NL, and don’t pick up Wakefields option, they would have about $28M off the books.
Add Lee and Soriano and you are looking at about $35M. Only $7M more than last year. $10M factoring the raise to Lester.
While this is complete fantasy talk, it’s not as far fetched as it seems based on $. Far fetched is finding a taker for DiceK and getting all 3 FAs to sign here.
It’s not an option on Wakefield next year, it’s guaranteed. A year ago the Sox signed him to a 2-year deal instead of picking up the recurring club option for 2010. There’s virtually zero chance that he doesn’t return in 2011 for the final season of his career.
How many times has Lee won more than 15 games in the last 6 years? Once. Josh Beckett has done that 4 times. Cliff Lee wants $23MM. Lee may be good, but I’m not lining up to sign him at Yankee prices to an LT contract. I’ll stick with Beckett as our 3rd starter and hope he can reprise his 2007 or 2008 season. I’ll also stick with Lackey as our 4th starter, since even in a bad year in a new division, he can win you 14 games.
Would love, however, to sign Downs and Soriano, and trade Paps away.
Who would you rather have?
Papelbon (1 yr/$11M) or Soriano (3 yr/$21-24M)
Okajima (1 yr/$3.5M) or Rauch/Wheeler (2 yr/$7-9m)
Atchison (1 yr/.5M) or Downs (2 yr/$10-12M)
2010 Salaries
Papelbon, Okajima, Atchison = $15M
Soriano, Rauch, Downs = $17M
I don’t think these numbers are too unrealistic. Benoit had one of the best statistical seasons for a relief pitcher in the past 20 years and he got $5.5M per year.
I agree, and Benoit’s superb 2010 season happened while pitching in the AL East which makes it even more impressive. I really hope the Sox land a top reliever before they are all signed by other teams.