Links for Friday, as the Yankees and Derek Jeter continue negotiating …
- If you're curious to see which draft picks are changing hands as free agent compensation, check out the constantly updated 2011 Draft Order page at River Ave. Blues.
- Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports explains that the large number of Type-A and B free agents (35 total) could impact how willing teams are to forfeit draft picks to sign free agents.
- Bob Dutton of The Kansas City Star tweets that the Royals have re-signed right-hander Blake Johnson to a minor league deal. The 25-year-old owns a 4.42 minor league ERA, and he originally joined the Royals in a 2006 trade that sent Odalis Perez to KC and Elmer Dessens to the Dodgers.
- Brandon Webb, Erik Bedard, Jeff Francis, Chris Young and Jeremy Bonderman are intriguing cost-effective pitching options on the free-agent market, writes Chris Toman of the Sports Network (via the Miami Herald). Each pitcher has seen his career derailed by injury to his pitching arm and will likely be seeking short-term, incentive-laden contracts, but there's a steep drop-off in the market from Cliff Lee to the second-tier starters.
- Jacoby Ellsbury's reportedly strained relationship with the Red Sox and his attractiveness to potential suitors make him a strong trade candidate this offseason, according to Paul White of USA Today. Boston GM Theo Epstein has hinted that the Red Sox roster is in need of a "restocking," according to White, and Ellsbury could be a good fit for the Padres, Diamondbacks, Angels, Braves, Mets and Cubs.
- Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports contrasts Paul Konerko's relatively quiet contract negotiations with those of Derek Jeter. Konerko, is coming off a fine season (.312/.393/.584), and he could accept salary arbitration and earn a raise on the $12MM he earned in 2010, but Morosi writes a three-year deal could be mutually beneficial for both parties. White Sox GM Ken Williams has been quiet about Konerko, who is known to have a good relationship with owner Jerry Reinsdorf.
I know we all know how Webb is doing, but does anyone have any info or know how Bedard has been ? I know he was to injured to pitch this year, but is there any indication he is even an option for 2011 ?
I’m not sure how Ellsbury works for the Mets unless they get rid of Beltran.
Getting rid of Beltran would be a great move, but it’ll never happen given his contract.
It could happen with the redsox though knowing their deep pockets.
The Red Sox aren’t the Yankees, they absolutely do not want to go past the luxury tax threshhold. If they are going to spend $18.5M next season on an outfielder, they will spend it as part of a contract for Crawford or Werth (hopefully Crawford).
obviously the Mets would have to take on a good chunk of Beltran’s contract but I agree that Beltran will be here opening day. However, if Ellsbury is still on the Red Sox this season I could 100% see the Mets and Sawks making a deal in July.
Beltran is perfect for Boston as Fenway will inflate his numbers like crazy while Ellsbury’s speed and defense would look great in that 2 hole in between Reyes and Wright.
The Red Sox aren’t the Yankees, they absolutely do not want to go past the luxury tax threshhold. If they are going to spend $18.5M next season on an outfielder, they will spend it as part of a contract for Crawford or Werth (hopefully Crawford).
Well there’s your answer!! Beltran would be a easy decision to make if they could get a young player to fill his roll. The question would be, Who replaces the power Beltran provided when healthy??
Except it’s not an easy deicision in trading Beltran for the money he will be making. There’s no doubt the Mets would have to pay most of his contract remaining. I don’t think the Red Sox would take Beltran since Cameron is still on the team and since Crawford/Werth are on their minds also.
I would trade Beltran for him and a minor league relief pitcher
That’s even worse than the Reyes deal below. Why would the Sox trade a young, under team control lead off guy for an $18.5 million 34 year old?
That’s even worse than the Reyes deal below. Why would the Sox trade a young, under team control lead off guy for an $18.5 million 34 year old?
Unless the Mets are offering Wright I don’t see how a Ellsbury trade works for the Red Sox.
Exactly how good do you think Ellsbury is? He is a good solid centerfielder, but his best value is his contract, which will still be cheaper through Arb. but not a downright steal. I don’t think a Beltran-Ellsbury deal makes sense, but if the Mets want him I’m sure they can put a package together. He’s good but not by any means great.
How good do you think Beltran is? He’s used up and expensive.
Look I never said that I’d do the Beltran-Ellsbury deal, in fact i said that in my comment. I was simply pointing out that Ellsbury isn’t nearly as good as Boston fans believe. As I said his best value, is his price tag. He has been inconsistent offensively and defensively so it is hard to say if he will ever put it together. Even if he does improve he is likely a 4-5 WAR player tops. That is very good, but Beltran is two years removed from a 7.1 WAR which is elite. He might not be on that level, but if the Mets are footing a chunk of the bill, he isn’t the worst buy on the market. I don’t think used up would be what I’d characterize him as, by any means. Though I do believe he needs to move to a corner to be a positive defender.
How good do I think Ellsbury is? I think he has the POTENTIAL to be elite. I also think that he only costs half a million bucks and is under team control thru 2014. It’s not how good I think Ellsbury is, it’s how little interest I would have in anyone else other than Wright that the Mess might offer if I was the GM of the Sox.
Thats fine, but I think you miss the point, Ellsbury would be about the 4th or 5th piece on a Wright deal (which of course would never happen). He’s not as great as you are making him out to be. Sure he has potential but he only has 3 more years to show it. Reyes has a much better track record and both players were dealing with injuries so that is basically a wash. Also Ells is now costing a couple million in arb. so really Reyes is about $8 million more than Ells.
Thats fine, but I think you miss the point, Ellsbury would be about the 4th or 5th piece on a Wright deal (which of course would never happen). He’s not as great as you are making him out to be. Sure he has potential but he only has 3 more years to show it. Reyes has a much better track record and both players were dealing with injuries so that is basically a wash. Also Ells is now costing a couple million in arb. so really Reyes is about $8 million more than Ells.
How good do I think Ellsbury is? I think he has the POTENTIAL to be elite. I also think that he only costs half a million bucks and is under team control thru 2014. It’s not how good I think Ellsbury is, it’s how little interest I would have in anyone else other than Wright that the Mess might offer if I was the GM of the Sox.
What “flickadave” said. Ellsbury’s impact on Bostons lineup is unmisstakable, hence he may not be traded anyway. Boston needs a 3rd baseman and Wright is pretty darn good. I would trade for him. Beltran used to be attractive but he’s got 1 year left in his contract and is not the player he was a few years ago. For what it’s worth, I will take Ellsbury over Beltran hands down.
The only way I would take Beltran is a 1 for 1 swap of Cameron for Beltran and the Sox will pay Beltran’s contract. At least that way you would only be eating $12m or so and if Beltran rebounds you might have an upside.
Ellsbury is almost identical to Carl Crawford.
Crawford has a little more power, Ellsbury has a little more speed and is a couple years younger and plays a more demanding position. Other than that they are one and the same:
Crawford .305 BA, .364 OBP, .816 OPS, 60 SB
Ellsbury .301 BA, .355 OBP, .770 OPS, 70 SB
People forget how much Ellsbury improved in his 2nd full ML season:
Stolen Bases went from 50 to 70 (only 1 more Caught Stealing)
BA went from .280 to .301
OBP went from .336 to .355
SLG went from .394 to .415
OPS went from .729 to .770
Ellsbury is not yet great, but with his defense and power improving he’s almost there.
Ellsbury is almost identical to Carl Crawford.
Crawford has a little more power, Ellsbury has a little more speed and is a couple years younger and plays a more demanding position. Other than that they are one and the same:
Crawford .305 BA, .364 OBP, .816 OPS, 60 SB
Ellsbury .301 BA, .355 OBP, .770 OPS, 70 SB
People forget how much Ellsbury improved in his 2nd full ML season:
Stolen Bases went from 50 to 70 (only 1 more Caught Stealing)
BA went from .280 to .301
OBP went from .336 to .355
SLG went from .394 to .415
OPS went from .729 to .770
Ellsbury is not yet great, but with his defense and power improving he’s almost there.
Beltran + Reyes for Ellsbury, Iglesias and Matsuzaka?
Of course the Mets have to eat much of the contracts
Of course the Mets have to eat much of the contracts
Not entirely unreasonable but I doubt the Sox trade their future SS for one year of Reyes, plus they are likely going hard for one of Werth/Crawford so there wouldn’t really be much need or place for Beltran.
What about drop Beltran and replace Iglesias with Scutaro or (more likely) Lowrie?
Or drop Beltran and add Mejia?
I personally would accept that but I’m not sure that Theo would for two reasons:
number one – the Sox already have too many starters plus Doubront and Kelly in the minors, and while giving up Dice-K in the trade would open the #5 spot we would already have Doubront and Wakefield competing for that spot, although Mejia could be used as part of another trade or make Doubront more expendable.
number two – Iglesias is the “shortstop of the future” for the Sox and the way we have had a revolving door at SS, along with signing Scutaro solely for the purpose of getting to Iglesias, I doubt Theo would let him go for almost anything.
Or drop Beltran and add Mejia?
Wren needs to go hard after Ellsbury. Let McLouth be the most expensive 4th OFer ever. Add Ellsbury to our current lineup and we become a serious WS contender.
No you don’t. You don’t have the pitching.
Yes because Hanson, Hudson, Lowe, Jurrjens, and Minor is so horrible. With Teheran waiting in the wings.
I’d say Hudson, Hanson, Jurrjens, and Lowe is a pretty good rotation.
My bad!! Completely read that wrong. Thought you were speaking about the Mets!!
For a second there i was about to make a comment about how it’s bad to drink and post.
…..What?
Yeah I know!!
i completely agree. give up delgado and beachy and they would still have their top 2 pitching prospects in teheran and vizcaino (sp?). prado would no longer be forced to hit leadoff where he is adequate, yet out of place. plus, the braves have been missing any kind of base stealer since they lost furcal.
The Red Sox will not move Ellsbury for minor league players no matter their potential unless they could unload those prospects immediately in a trade for a superstar. The Sox are constructed to win now.
Delgado is still a few years away but Beachy is ready now. He pitched some at the major league level this year when Minor battled fatigue and Jurrjens was hurt. I could see Delgado and Jurrjens in a deal for Ellsbury as a less risky trade for the Sox though. Not sure I see the deal happening regardless. The braves are simply going to find a couple relievers, and utility men and call it a day until they see how McClouth performs. If he’s adequate but not spectacular, he and Jair may both be trade bait come midseason.
I say we just sign Andruw Jones and Jerry Hairston Jr and let Hairston Jr backup Gonzalez at short and McLouth in center and let Andruw backup Prado in left and Heyward in right.Then all we need is a late inning reliever with experience and they are a pretty good team and could be great if McLouth returns to form
I say we just sign Andruw Jones and Jerry Hairston Jr and let Hairston Jr backup Gonzalez at short and McLouth in center and let Andruw backup Prado in left and Heyward in right.Then all we need is a late inning reliever with experience and they are a pretty good team and could be great if McLouth returns to form
McLouth will only be making about half of what the most expensive 4th outfielder makes. Aaron Rowand has that distinction locked up with his $12MM salary and calling him a 4th outfielder might even be generous…he’s really a 5th outfielder.
If he were to accept a minor league deal or something less than 5million.. i say the mets should go hard on LHP J.Francis.
As for Ellsbury.. I would love the Red so and mets to make a nice BIG DEAL!
– Red Sox acquire SS Reyes & OF Bay
– Mets acquire IF J.Lowrie, OF J.Ellsbury, and two mid level prospects. Then maybe flip this part of the deal to Arizona in exchanged for OF J.Upton!!!
Why in the world would the Sox take that deal? Hm, give up a cost controlled young infielder with good utility man potential and one of the best base stealers in the game for a guy who’s a free agent in a year and almost identical in terms of offensive style as Ellsbury and a guy we just let walk because we were unwilling to match what the Mets gave him BEFORE he put up an awful year last year.
Oh, and you guys want some prospects from us too. Are you trolling or do you sincerely believe that is even remotely feasible? I wouldn’t trade Ellsbury for Reyes straight up, much less with additional parts only to bring back that joke of a contract you guys gave Bay.
The Mets have said that they don’t want to trade Bay, along with Wright and Davis.
mlbtraderumors.com/david_wright/
Or the Red Sox could trade Ellsbury, Lowrie, + for Justin Upton, and slot Iglesias at SS. Would you rather have Reyes or Upton? I think the Red Sox would prefer Upton, and despite the ‘brains’ in the Mets FO, the Red Sox FO is just as smart, if not smarter.
Besides… Upton isn’t getting traded.
I like this deal except for the Upton part.
Why not? Considering the optimism of his post, I have to assume the Mets can get Upton back for K-Rod and Castillo if the D’backs are willing to take on some of Upton’s salary.
Why not? Considering the optimism of his post, I have to assume the Mets can get Upton back for K-Rod and Castillo if the D’backs are willing to take on some of Upton’s salary.
What? Mets aren’t trading Bay.
redsox wont trade ellsbury hes a fan favorite and my favorite players, this was a tough season with out him, he could have won us a few games on baserunning alone we need him in our lineup he is a key to the redsox
They don’t care if Josh Moody likes him. He cant stay healthy and hes just another juan pierre
Getting your ribs broken in a freak accident doesn’t constitute not being able to stay healthy, and while he’s obviously not a prolific home run hitter he did hit more home runs in two years than Pierre has in his entire career and he steals more bases at a much higher stolen base percentage. Plus while some people claim Ellsbury is a poor fielder who only looks good because he is so fast, he has a higher UZR/150 than Pierre, and take TZ for what it’s worth but Pierre has a -16 and Ellsbury has a +14.
I’d think Jays would be interested as well. Fills the speed at the top of the line-up, is young and a better player than Davis.
I’d like to see the Yankees make Webb an offer. A two year deal with an option probably giving him this year to build his arm back up. I think Webb is worth the risk.
Ellsbury’s value is low as it has been,they aren’t going to trade him in a situation where he is undervalued.
Ding ding ding. Sox aren’t trading Ellsbury when his value is effectively at rock bottom. There’s bound to be teams who’d give up value for him based off of his ceiling and the fact last year was obviously injury problems, but the odds of his value being significantly higher in a year are pretty good.
Yes but you’d lose half the Ellsbury market if you wait a year. He is entering his arb. years and it could still make sense for a team like the Nats, Royals, D-Backs (if they are moving Upton or Young), or Marlins (if they dont’ consider themselves a serious contender) to trade for him even if they won’t be competitive for a year or two. But for non-contending teams it makes a lot less sense to trade for him with only two years remaining. Sure his value could go up, but even in 2009 Ellsbury wasn’t a frontline CF, it is just as possible that his value continue to falls.
“Yes but you’d lose half the Ellsbury market if you wait a year. He is entering his arb.”
I have bad news for all of those small market suitors out there: Ellsbury’s going to hit arbitration whether he’s traded or not. The clock doesn’t suddenly reset when a guy gets traded. Regardless of whether he’s traded this year or next, he’s still going to have the potential of being expensive in a year or two.
Your argument makes absolutely no sense.
How so?
If you are a small market team and you are acquiring a young player and having to give up prospects or even veterans you want someone who will be there for a couple of years not just one or two. What does Ellsbury do for a team for just a year or two if they aren’t a serious contender? Its not about money, its about team control.
Look at the Nats who have Josh Willingham heading into free agency, why should they trade him for a player who only has one or two years remaining of team control, even if it is a more valuable position or a need position? How does that make the Nats any better?? But for a 3-6 year control player it makes sense. Not to mention the first Arb. year is the greatest value since it is the cheapest. Unless Ellsbury becomes a great player, paying him $5+ million in 2012 and $8+ million in 2013 isn’t exactly a ‘steal’. It is still good value compared to the market but it isn’t great, lowering his value. The longer they wait to trade Ellsbury, the less attractive he becomes to teams who aren’t competitive, that is just a simple fact.
I’m curious as hell to se what Ellsbury gets in arb after basically missing the whole year! I know the sox don’t go to arb but, with Boras involved and hard feelings from last season, theo could lowball him for 2 mil or so and might win which would keep his last two years fairly cheap as well! Should be interesting!
In what universe wasn’t Ellsbury a frontline CF in 2009? Amazing catches, .300 BA, and 70 sb’s is as frontline for a cf as it gets!
To be fair, Bonderman’s injury was not to his pitching arm.
Yes it was–they removed about 3 inches of vein from his throwing arm.
Exact same situation as Kenny Rogers was in except bonderman hasnt bounced back and it doesnt look like he will. He lost too much velocity and that was what made him effective. Hes basically useless throwing and 85-88 mph fastball and that’s really sad because he was a bulldog for Detroit and has been with the team since he was a 19 year old rookie…lost 20 games in the 119 loss season and pitched in a world series just a few years later but without the high heat fastball he doesn’t have a single secondary pitch that’s effective.
He’s really a sad story and knows he’s basically done…at 28 he talked about retiring and that should tell you all you need to know.
Royals should make a move for this guy… We could use a leadoff guy for the future…
If the redsox and mets to make a deal for Jose Reyes, Ellsbury likely would be traded but thats the only way, and they wouldnt take Bay, no way.
But Jacoby Ellsbury and Michael Bowden for Jose Reyes should get a deal done
or there are a lot of prospects redsox could center a deal around, Doubront, Ryan Kalish, Casey kelly, Westmoreland(recovering), Lowrie would also be added in a deal or the prospect the redsox get in return for Marco Scutaro
I definetly could see the redsox and mets getting a deal done for Jose Reyes
Lineup with Jose Reyes, dream lineup
1. Jacoby Ellsbury CF
2. Jose Reyes SS
3. Dustin Pedroia 2B
4. Kevin Youkilis 1B
5. Jayson Werth RF
6. David Ortiz DH
7. Jd Drew RF
8. Jarrod Saltalamachia/Aj Pierzienski C
9. Jed Lowrie 3B
Bench
Mike Cameron OF
Darnell McDonald OF – If redsox can find taker for Cameron
Jarrod Saltalamachia/Aj Pierzienski C/1B
Felipe Lopez/Marco Scutaro/UTIL
Assuming the redsox pull off a deal surrounding Doubront, Tazawa, Bowden Yamaico Navarro, Josh Reddick or Ryan Kalish 3-4 guys listed
“But Jacoby Ellsbury and Michael Bowden for Jose Reyes should get a deal done”
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHA stop making Sox fans look bad.
Ellsbury and Reyes are almost identical from an offensive standpoint. Reyes plays a more premium position, but Ellsbury’s got an additional two years of team control and is going to be significantly cheaper next year. As I said above, I wouldn’t trade Ellsbury for Reyes straight up based on all of that, he simply has more value in the long term assuming he doesn’t have any long term reprecussions from his injury.
yes but Reyes has much higher ‘market value’….what better SS is available on the FA or trade market? Ellsbury is nice, but more replaceable. Lowrie I know looks promising but he doesn’t have the upside of Reyes.
Reyes may be the best quality shortstop on the trade market, but he’s quite expensive and a straight up rental. As I noted, his positional value is higher, but not so much higher that I’d give up three cost controlled years for one, especially not if it involved giving up a guy who at worst is going to be a very good utility guy (And could very well be a starter on some teams) AND a couple prospects. That’d be idiotic.
Reyes is expensive yes, but he comes with a Type-A pick protection, and $11 million is pretty good considering what what they are paying Scutaro. That is a bargain. I don’t think you overpay for him, but Ellsbury and two solid and good prospects are good value (though obviously not the restocking the Sox are talking about). Reyes might be for only one year, but the Red Sox are a contender and should have world series aspirations. So what they give up two years of team control, they would get potentially two draft picks in return as well as a better chance for winning.
As I’ve noted, offensively speaking, Ellsbury and Reyes are almost identical. Meanwhile, Reyes contributed less than a win more than Scutaro produced last year for half the salary with a shoulder injury.
The Sox would be giving up, in your scenario, a plus utility infielder and a potentially high quality leadoff hitting center fielder for a potentially high quality leadoff hitting shortstop. The utility infielder role would subsequently be filled by Scutaro, but what about that outfield spot we just lost in an already shorthanded outfield? To break even, the Sox would effectively have to go out and sign Werth AND Crawford.
First off I never said they’d trade Lowrie in the deal (though maybe in another deal if they trade for Reyes). I will take the same offensive performance from a SS than a CF, Boston can find another CF, but they can’t find another SS. Lowrie is okay and he can start, but he isn’t going to make the Red Sox dominate by any means. If they are serious about contending, they’d have to at least think about making a trade like this.
I think that you might underestimate how much a lot of Sox fans like Ellsbury. When he gets on base he totally destroys the pitcher’s rhythm. He’s a premium leadoff hitter, a decent fielder, has some pop (some think he is going to become a 20 hr a season guy but I think that might be wishful thinking), and fits the “make the pitcher work” mold that the Sox stress in their farm system. Also, we have Iglesias who will be ML ready hopefully after next year (or at the call up next year) so why would we need an expensive SS rental.
First off I never said they’d trade Lowrie in the deal (though maybe in another deal if they trade for Reyes). I will take the same offensive performance from a SS than a CF, Boston can find another CF, but they can’t find another SS. Lowrie is okay and he can start, but he isn’t going to make the Red Sox dominate by any means. If they are serious about contending, they’d have to at least think about making a trade like this.
As I’ve noted, offensively speaking, Ellsbury and Reyes are almost identical. Meanwhile, Reyes contributed less than a win more than Scutaro produced last year for half the salary with a shoulder injury.
The Sox would be giving up, in your scenario, a plus utility infielder and a potentially high quality leadoff hitting center fielder for a potentially high quality leadoff hitting shortstop. The utility infielder role would subsequently be filled by Scutaro, but what about that outfield spot we just lost in an already shorthanded outfield? To break even, the Sox would effectively have to go out and sign Werth AND Crawford.
Ellsbury and Reyes are almost identical from an offensive standpoint. Reyes plays a more premium position, but Ellsbury’s got an additional two years of team control and is going to be significantly cheaper next year. As I said above, I wouldn’t trade Ellsbury for Reyes straight up based on all of that, he simply has more value in the long term assuming he doesn’t have any long term reprecussions from his injury.
I have no idea why in the world the Red Sox would ever trade for Reyes. Not only do they have Scutaro and Lowrie, they also have one of their best prospects that is a slick fielding SS that is only a year or 2 away from being ML ready. Why in the world would you trade for a guy that is already expensive and is a FA in 2012?
That is going to be a crowded right field.
I guess the dream line-up only needs to pitch to lefties.
Why not move scutaro for relife pitching? Plus I bet There’s a team or two who would be interested in Cameron and drew.
I could see scutaro,cameron and drew getting traded…if they sign both crawford and werth(no way!)
To be fair, Bonderman’s injury was not to his pitching arm.
Webb is better than any 5th option we have, Cy young in 06, 3 time all-star. If Webb takes less than Sheets took I’d offer him the contract since he’s more of a risk at this time with his fastball averaging 80-82 last year. Something like a 2 year 12 million with incentives and third year mutual option.
he got by with a 87-90 fastball when he was full healthy. He hasn’t really pitched for 2 seasons, i’d expect him to be only pitching in the low 80s right now.
Right on with pitch speed.
Right on with pitch speed.
he got by with a 87-90 fastball when he was full healthy. He hasn’t really pitched for 2 seasons, i’d expect him to be only pitching in the low 80s right now.
One or two of Webb, Bedard, Francis, Young or Bonderman should end up with Milwaukee. They’re talking about bringing Washburn into their rotation evidently, so these other guys make sense. Also people aren’t talking about Dave Bush at all as an option but he’ll have a few great starts without hurting a team much as a #5 starter.
The Cubs suggestion is rather intriguing.
In terms of skill set, he is perfect for the lineup–lefty bat that can hit leadoff.
However, the Cubs have Soriano, Byrd, Fukudome, Colvin, Brett Jackson, LaHari, and Guyer as it is, so there is a log jam worth mentioning.
Perhaps on a buy-low option, the Cubs could trade Byrd for Ellsbury and a small piece? Byrd is getting just $11.5 or $12 million through 2012, I think.
Or, if they want to go with Drew, Cameron, and Nava/Reddick in the OF or sign Werth/Crawford, maybe Ramirez, a C prospect, and cash for Ellsbury. Then the Cubs can trade Fukudome and cash for a #5 SP or RP and move Byrd for some prospects.
OR, since they said “restocking,” the Cubs could give up a MI/OF prospect and a couple of RP prospects.
In terms of what could be sent back and what the Cubs need from Ellsbury, there is a good fit for a trade.
Delusional…
You and the bums that “liked,” that comment are complete trolls. You lack the capability to explain yourself, and just talk trash for the sake of looking tough on the internet.
Ellsbury showed displeasure with some of his comments earlier in the season. If those sentiments are legitimate and other owners know it, it WILL harm his market value.
Byrd played stellar defense in center and hit pretty well for a CF. Ellsbury is mediocre at best. As a whole, Byrd also has a much better arm, so he could play RF as well, while Ellsbury’s weak arm could hinder that.
Now, in terms of WAR, Ellsbury’s 2 full seasons produced a WAR of 6.6. Byrd’s last 2 have produced a WAR of 5.9. It probably wouldn’t take much more than Byrd to get Ellsbury.
Ramirez would have his option automatically kick in if he was traded, which is why I suggested the Cubs kick in money. Youk’s not a strong defender at 3B. Neither is Ramirez, but Youk’s a GG 1B. Keeping him there is a benefit to the infield as a whole. On top of that, you get a hitter that, when healthy, is a lock for .280 and 30 HR.
With the Cubs, Ramirez has averaged 141 games, a .302 average, and 32 HR per season until his shoulder injury in 2009. Including those years, he is STILL getting 130 games, a .295 average, and 28 HR. In a full season, you are getting a .280-30-100 hitter. Adding in a solid prospect such as Welington Castillo, who is a very good defender and a decent hitter, should EASILY net you Ellsbury. A #4 hitter and a good option to put with Salty is worth a guy whose skill set most resembles the great Juan Pierre (seriously, weak arm, good range, GREAT speed, good average? It’s Pierre).
Great leadoff hitters aren’t easy to find, but the Red Sox have plenty of OF options and a hole at 3B and in the #4/5 spot in the lineup. You can get 2 years of a likely .290-30-100 guy, or you can get 4-5 years for Beltre, who has never hit well ouside of a contract year.
So, to end the rant and summarize: Ellsbury can easily be replaced. Ramirez can fill a big lineup hole and not require the commitment Beltre would.
Either explain your trash talk or buzz off, because SOME OF US would like to have an intellectual discussion based on fact and reason.
First of all simply saying that Ellsbury is mediocre at best doesn’t make it so.
Second why would it make any sense to trade a very good cheap young CF lead off hitter who is under control for 3 years for a more expensive maybe as good CF who is on the wrong end of his career and likely to decline and definitely can’t hit lead off?
As far as Ramirez it’s pretty well known that the plan is to go after Adrian Gonzalez whether it is a trade this offseason or as a free agent next, and then what do you do with Ramirez and Youkilis? Plus he is another player on the wrong end of his career and possibly already on the decline and way more expensive than Ellsbury (unless the Cubs pay almost all of his contract). Ramirez+a good portion of his contract+something better than a C prospect may equal Ellsbury but I still don’t think it really makes much sense for the Sox.
Lastly a middle infield or outfield prospect and a couple of relief pitching prospects doesn’t come anywhere close, especially since another middle infield or outfield prospect is the last thing the Sox need.
I really don’t see anything that the Cubs have matching up well with what the Sox would want or need in an Ellsbury trade, other than pieces that there is no way the Cubs would let go. No trying to be a jerk that’s just the way I see it.
Maybe it’s just me, but are the Red Sox not saying that Beltre is an offseason priority?
Second, I think the answer is obvious. You have Youkilis, Ramirez, and Gonzalez in that scenario. Ramirez is a masher with a VERY nice average for a 30 HR candidate, but he can’t play DH. Ortiz has a contract through 2011 only. It’s th AL. They have a DH. Gonzalez to 1B, Youkilis to 3B, Ramirez to DH.
And I didn’t say that the Cubs should start with Byrd. I was saying that if Ellsbury is quietly trying to get himself out of Boston and they don’t want to start Nava and/or Reddick (the “and,” is in case Cameron got hurt), then giving up a guy that can legitimately cover the necessary ground in all 3 OF spots is an option. In all honesty, I’m not saying it’s likely or realistic. I’m saying that IF it is something that they want, it is there. At the same time, I’d consider Colvin if they wanted, but I’m not as excited at the thought of trading the only lefty power bat on the roster.
The prospect thing was just a suggestion. If they want it, it’s there. They have a lot of pitching prospects, I know, but I didn’t know of any MI prospect but Iglesia. With OF, again, maybe they aren’t liking what Nava or Reddick offered. Westmoreland is a serious health risk, IMO, so maybe they want someone other than him. I don’t know their OF situation. I was mostly getting at the fact that the Cubs don’t have an CI prospects to trade, so RP, MI, and OF are really it since BOS has a glut of young pitching.
You might not see a fit, but if Ellsbury really IS trying to push his way out, it might be a scenario where Boston will have to take what it can get at this stage.
If it was my choice, I’d have the Cubs try out Chirinos, a stellar hitting catcher (.999 OPS in 2010–1.035 OPS at C). If he can offensively and defensively transfer to C at the MLB level, I’d consider moving Soto to get that high-end leadoff guy in Ellsbury. And unless you’re SF, BAL, MIN, or ATL, you’d probably be salivating to get an All-Star catcher that just had a .394 OBP last year.
But we aren’t the GMs. We aren’t in their heads. So we’ll just have to wait and see.
To be fair they said the same thing about V-Mart and as much as they have coveted A-Gonz I don’t really see Beltre as being much of an actual priority, for some reason Theo likes to say those things.
Remirez to DH would be a legitimate choice so that could be a decent option but it would have to be along with something a little better than a C prospect (or did you mean C as in catcher?)
The sox are actually pretty deep in middle infield prospects as well, outside of Iglesias they also have Yamaico Navarro, Oscar Tejeda, and Sean Coyle who are all in their top 20 prospects and all middle infielders.
Some type of Ellsbury – Soto deal could definitely get it done but I had him as one of the players that they wouldn’t consider moving.
Why is it every time Adrian Gonzalez comes up, about fifteen people come in whining about the innevitability of idiotic trade proposals, but it’s cool for people to come through and suggest the Sox would give up Ellsbury, a guy under team control for another three years and only one year removed from a 70 SB season, to take back salary dumps?
If Ellsbury were to be traded (Which I don’t think he will be), it will be for high value. He’s not Justin Upton, but he’s not Eric Hinske either.
Don’t be crazy!!!!!
EVERYONE wants Eric Hinskie!!!!
Ellsbury hasn’t OPS’d .800 in his career. Yes, he steals a lot of bases, but how much is that really worth if you struggle to get an OBP over .350?
Let’s not act as if he is a 23 year old kid here. He is 26. Barring luck due to an inflated BABIP, his .770 OPS season is probably the ceiling of what he’s going to do offensively.
People take issue with his defense as well, many scouting reports state that he takes odd routes to the ball, negating any advantage that his speed gives him. FG states that he is very very league average when it comes to defense.
To me, going on what he can do in the major leagues thus far, he isn’t worth what a lot of red sox fans have been throwing around. If I was Jed Hoyer, if Epstein offered me Ellsbury + some minor league trash for Gonzalez, probably the 2nd best 1B in the National League only being paid a little over 3 million a year, I’d laugh and hang up.
I understand, economically, he is worth more than Eric Hinske is. However, if you just isolate the offensive statistics, he might as well be Eric Hinske.
Why is it every time Adrian Gonzalez comes up, about fifteen people come in whining about the innevitability of idiotic trade proposals, but it’s cool for people to come through and suggest the Sox would give up Ellsbury, a guy under team control for another three years and only one year removed from a 70 SB season, to take back salary dumps?
If Ellsbury were to be traded (Which I don’t think he will be), it will be for high value. He’s not Justin Upton, but he’s not Eric Hinske either.
Im very suprised no one ever mentions the Reds for Ellsbury. Walt has said numerous times that he is in the market for a lead off hitter and we have a opening in left field for him it seems like a logical fit but the Reds dont get much attention in trade talks for some reason.
Maybe Ellsbury for Jay Bruce!
The Reds don’t really have anything the sox need that wouldn’t cost them the farm. Ells would fit in as a leadoff guy but the positions the Sox need to fill can’t be filled by the Reds.
The only possible trade could be for a couple relievers. But I’m not convinced the sox will trade Ells because they would be left with out a lead off man.
The Sox are looking for pitching help, and the Reds have pitching to spare. The Reds could offer Homer Bailey, Nick Masset, and Juan Francisco for Ellsbury and Marco Scutaro.
The Reds don’t really have anything the sox need that wouldn’t cost them the farm. Ells would fit in as a leadoff guy but the positions the Sox need to fill can’t be filled by the Reds.
The only possible trade could be for a couple relievers. But I’m not convinced the sox will trade Ells because they would be left with out a lead off man.
Youre completely out of your mind.
Youre completely out of your mind.
Ha uhm that would not happen for the reds, Ells stock is really low and Bruce’s keeps climbing he will be in cincci for a while.
While I agree that that trade never happens, I really don’t think you are right when you say Ellsbury’s stock is really low. If his stock has gone down at all it isn’t very much, it isn’t as though he had a really poor year performance wise, the guy was injured and not even in a way that could hurt his future performance, other teams GM’s know what this guy is.
I really don’t understand how a guy having one injury in his entire career that sent him to the DL hurts his stock, up until the time he had 4 broken ribs the guy had always displayed a willingness to lay hurt, and to sacrifice his body to go after a ball when it counted.
By that same rationale maybe now is a good time to go after A-Gonz with his shoulder problems, and maybe we could get Hanley back for next to nothing with his elbow injury, and the Diamondbacks shouldn’t be asking so much for Upton because he was injured last year too…
Sorry, that’s not specifically about you just about how often I hear that Ellsbury’s value is low or even next to nothing just because he was injured last year. I know he had a perceived falling out with the Red Sox but it was overblown and he was largely right in what he said, they did misdiagnose it and then try to get him to take shortcuts to coming back, now they are “refining” their medical staff processes, and he wasn’t the only one to have medical issues mishandled last season (though he was the only one to speak out about it).
Anyway, if his value is that low the Red Sox wouldn’t even consider trading him now.
His stock is lower than what it was when he was fully healthy and playing.Your right you kind of have a sence of what your going to get from ells 70 sb a good average with not much power but great leadoff guy, I’ve actually been a fan of Jacoby he is always willing to play the game through injuries.The second paragraph is kind of right , what if and agian its just the what if game, that Adrian shoulder problems causes him to lose power in his swing,Or hanleys elbow causes him to have fits on offensive and defense.But when your trying to trade a guy who was injured your not going to get as much as you was when he was healthy and beasting it up.Now i highly doubt any of those injuries cause problems Hanley,Upton,and Adrian will be fine and be the players they once was just like Ellsbury will be.But thats how it will always be.But alot of low stocks statments are always overblown just like the ones currenlty with jose reyes.
Maybe Ellsbury for Jay Bruce!
I usually try to stay out of trade proposals because you usually end up looking foolish when you make them, but don’t the Reds have a really good 1st base prospect who is blocked by Votto? I haven’t heard that they would be interested in trading him even if he is blocked/can’t play another position but that could be interesting. Obviously not a 1 for 1 trade but maybe some other pieces could be added to make it work.
Yonder Alonso, yes their interested in trading him. He’s blocked and they tried him at other positions and its just not going to work. He would probably be the starting point of a package in any trade the Reds are trying to make.
Would the Sox want Alonso? They already have Anthony Rizzo and Lars Anderson (in addition to Youkilis and Big Papi), so I’m not sure the Red Sox are the best fit for him.
No, and I thought of that not long after I posted that. I could still see it working though, but it would likely only be to turn around and add him to a package for another player that they could more readily use.
I know the Adrian Gonzalez drum gets over beaten (I usually roll my eyes when I hear his name now) but I don’t think the Padre’s have a real replacement for him (I could be wrong though) so he could potentially be added to a deal for him, or maybe a three team deal could work with the RedSox Reds and Padres. Just thinking out loud at this point…
No, and I thought of that not long after I posted that. I could still see it working though, but it would likely only be to turn around and add him to a package for another player that they could more readily use.
I know the Adrian Gonzalez drum gets over beaten (I usually roll my eyes when I hear his name now) but I don’t think the Padre’s have a real replacement for him (I could be wrong though) so he could potentially be added to a deal for him, or maybe a three team deal could work with the RedSox Reds and Padres. Just thinking out loud at this point…
Im very suprised no one ever mentions the Reds for Ellsbury. Walt has said numerous times that he is in the market for a lead off hitter and we have a opening in left field for him it seems like a logical fit but the Reds dont get much attention in trade talks for some reason.
I think the Cubs and Red Sox could definetly match up. Given the Red Sox need for a proven catcher and Cubs needing multiple pieces, I would look into what kind of return Geovany Soto would bring. Ellsbury for Soto straight up would not be enough.
They also could like Sean Marshall. That’s who I’d go after if I were the sox.
And would not EVER happen. The Cubs have too many outfielders as it is, and just because the Sox need a catcher doesn’t mean the Cubs don’t need theirs.
Maybe, just maybe, Sox sign Crawford, then trade Ellsbury and prospects for Gonzalez. Or possibly Ellsbury and prospects to the Mets for Wright. This is as likely as some of what I’ve been reading here.
I could see Ellsbury and prospects for Wright, but Ellsbury’s not likely to be in the gameplan for the Padres. They’ll want guys who haven’t hit arbitration yet in all likelihood.
I see Beltran and Reyes going to the Red Sox. Wright isn’t being moved.
There is not a snowball’s chance in hell that the Red Sox trade anything of value for those two never mind Ellsbury.
I would love that move……if I was a Mets fan. I’ve got a better idea, Dice-K for Wright, same chance of that happening too.
I would love that move……if I was a Mets fan. I’ve got a better idea, Dice-K for Wright, same chance of that happening too.
I see Beltran and Reyes going to the Red Sox. Wright isn’t being moved.
I wouldn’t mind seeing the White Sox trading Dayan Viciedo (maybe another prospect) for Ellsbury.
Viciedo would give the Red Sox a cheap Top 1B Prospect that can hit for amazing power and has less than .5 year of service time. They can move Youk over to 3B.
With the combination of Pierre and Ellsbury at the top of the order, you are talking about a lot of speed, a lot of GIDP that don’t happen, and a lot more scores.
Not to mention you move Ellsbury to Center. Rios can move back to RF, he has one of the strongest arms in the game and that position suits him well, and with Pierre in Left, you basically cover more ground than any OF in the majors.
So with Ellsbury averaging 60 steals between 08-09 lets just say he hits that number. The top 3 in the ChiSox line up would have these kind of numbers as fars as SBs goes.
1. Pierre – 68 SB (2010 Number)
2. Ellsbury – 60 SB (08-09 Average)
3. Rios – 34 SB (2010 Number)
That is a lot more runners in scoring position for the 4 and 5 hitters.
No thanks. Viciedo only had about 100 at bats in the bigs last year and his MiLB numbers aren’t exactly enticing. Looking at his stats, he doesn’t seem to know what a walk is and he strikes out a ton. Not exactly someone who fits the mold the Sox look for.
I’d love to see Ellsbury too…..but I’m thinking we see Ian Stewart from the Rockies for Floyd much sooner.
no way in hell do i trade floyd for stewart.
How about steward for ellsbury? With prospects of course. Would fit for both teams.
Anthony Rizzo is a better prospect than Viciedo.
Ellsbury for Quentin and one of (Morel/Viciedo). It would probably take SP in order to acquire Jacoby but I think that trade benefits both teams.
Where is the benefit to the Red Sox? The White Sox have nothing that would interest the Red Sox in a potential Ellsbury deal outside of Gordon Beckham. As I dont see Beckham going anywhere, Ellsbury will not be headed to Chitown.
I wouldn’t mind seeing the White Sox trading Dayan Viciedo (maybe another prospect) for Ellsbury.
Viciedo would give the Red Sox a cheap Top 1B Prospect that can hit for amazing power and has less than .5 year of service time. They can move Youk over to 3B.
With the combination of Pierre and Ellsbury at the top of the order, you are talking about a lot of speed, a lot of GIDP that don’t happen, and a lot more scores.
Not to mention you move Ellsbury to Center. Rios can move back to RF, he has one of the strongest arms in the game and that position suits him well, and with Pierre in Left, you basically cover more ground than any OF in the majors.
So with Ellsbury averaging 60 steals between 08-09 lets just say he hits that number. The top 3 in the ChiSox line up would have these kind of numbers as fars as SBs goes.
1. Pierre – 68 SB (2010 Number)
2. Ellsbury – 60 SB (08-09 Average)
3. Rios – 34 SB (2010 Number)
That is a lot more runners in scoring position for the 4 and 5 hitters.
Beltran and Reyes to the Sox for Ellsbury Bowden and Doubront with the Mets paying half of Beltran salary.
Beltran and Reyes to the Sox for Ellsbury Bowden and Doubront with the Mets paying half of Beltran salary.
Reyes to the Reds for Wilson Frazier or Leake and Heisey
No way. Reyes isn’t worth half of that package at this point of his career, especially with his contract expiring after the season.
Elias rates Reyes a 62 – Wilson 32 Heisey 23 =54 seems fair to me. Reyes has all star potential .
Who is Wilson?
My bad, I mean Wood, he’s a young lefty starter who throws hard.
If by being able to throw 90, you mean ‘throws hard’, then yes–he sometimes just barely throws hard.
Who is Wilson?
Reyes to the Reds for Wilson Frazier or Leake and Heisey
Ellsbury to Reds for Frazier and Alonzo.
I wonder if the red sox could get David wright for a discount if we took ALL of beltran’s salary. Maybe ellsbury and say 2-3 other prospects for the two of them?
Yeah, sounds good but the Mets aren’t trading Wright.
I’d do that. The 18mm that the sox would take could leave room for the mets to sign a pitcher or 2. I wonder if we could get anything in return for Cameron or drew?
I wouldn’t mind seeing the White Sox go after Ellsbury so they could get rid of Juan Pierre.
I’m sure Ozzie would like him.
Ellsbury to Cleveland; Cleveland gives back Masterson and something else.
I do not like the Indians outfield options-Choo, than who? Sizemore may or may not be back, and he may or may not be any good anymore. No one knows yet. Brantley is still transitioning to the majors; Duncan really isn’t an outfielder, God love him for trying so hard but he’s a 1st baseman/DH; and Crowe is fine-if you play him as your 5th outfielder.
I really want the Indians to add an outfielder-someone that’s at least good enough to be your 3rd or 4th outfielder.
If the Angels miss out on Crawford, particularly if it’s to the Sox, I wonder how they would match up on an Ellsbury trade? Aren’t they pretty deep on Catching Depth?
This is my first post in a long time, but I am curious as to whether a Quentin and Floyd package would be near enough to get Ellsbury.
it would be too much in my view. Floyd straight up for Ellsbury gets it done on strictly a talent standpoint. However, red sox don’t need a starting pitcher because they are loaded with them.
I love how Red Sox fans generally get hammered on this site for making ridiculous trade proposals but when a Sox player is potentially available, the most ridiculous trade proposals I have ever seen are posted. The Red Sox are NOT moving Ellsbury unless he is part of a package for a superstar. If you do not think your team is willing to move a superstar caliber player, stop wasting your time.
I’m not sure that I completely agree with that. I don’t think I would be too surprised, or upset, if the Sox traded Ellsbury for a piece or two that could help now + a piece or two that could help in the future or be secondary pieces in another trade, potentially for a “superstar”.
For example I think he could be traded for (among other things) a piece or two to add to a Gonzalez trade and it could actually work better. I don’t think that the Padres are as interested in Ellsbury as people would think, he only has three years of control left and is just entering his arbitration years so is going to be getting more expensive. I think they would likely be more looking for some one who is on the verge of the majors or has maybe one year/partial year in the majors. (Kalish?)
I could be wrong but that’s just my thoughts, for what they are worth.
I think any trade Boston makes will be to win now and load for a possible trade for Gonzalez at the break. I do not see them moving Ellsbury because his value is down and teams do not pony up for guys off injury. I think Boston builds his value and moves him to a team for a couple pieces to flip to SD.What does SD need? They will want the following IMO: Frontline SP, 1B, 2B, and C…Kelly will need a very good year to qualify as a ML ready SP, Sox have Rizzo, Sox have Lowrie, Sox have no one at C. I think Sox need to trade Ellsbury for a good C prospect and SP to strengthen their offer to SD. Only reason they would need to deal now is if they miss out on Werth. Then they may look to deal Kalish and Bard to get a Corner OF (to free up Ellsbury) or they could just roll the dice on Kalish producing this year. Just my thoughts.
It kinda sounds like we agree that it would be feasible for Ellsbury to potentially be moved for pieces to another trade and not necessarily for a superstar directly. The only difference I see is that I think if it happens it will likely be this off season and not during the year. I just don’t see SD getting a legit frontline pitcher, a good 1B (Rizzo/Anderson), a good 2B (Navarro), and a legit catching prospect for two months of Gonzalez, so I don’t think a trade of Ells would be necessary at that point.
I also don’t think that Ellsbury’s value is down as much as people think , if at all. GM’s may try to get him at a lower value just on the off chance that it works but they know full well what Ellsbury is and what he is capable of and the fact that he only played 18 games because of a freak injury that wont have lasting effects or affect his potential for the coming years doesn’t change what they think of his talent.
why the hell would you trade ells AND kalish.
that means that in one year you wont have either Ells,Kalish,Drew or Cameron signed.Awesome,do you plan to field a one man OF?
Please think more about this stuff.
the mets do not need ellsbury – they are loaded with of’ers in the minors (Duda, Neuwenheis, Vaughn, and Flores who will probably move to a corner OF spot), and have a great cheap CF with Pagan already.
Am I the only one who finds it weird that the teams the USA Today writer mentions all have major players the Red Sox have desire for? San Diego-Adrian Gonzalez, Arizona-Justin Upton,Angels-Mike Napoli……way to go.
Ahh I see. If ellsbury has a strained relationship than I agree that trading for upton is the right thing to do