Today's Justin Upton rumors…
- One AL exec told SI.com's Jon Heyman (Twitter link) that Arizona's asking price for Upton is "ridiculous."
- The Rockies inquired on Upton, according to the Denver Post's Troy Renck. A Diamondbacks official expects the team would be willing to deal within the division, though they'd have to receive a very strong offer.
- The Upton rumors are more than just talk, says ESPN.com's Jayson Stark, who was told the D'Backs are "genuinely open" to moving the 23-year-old. However, it might take a package of five players who could help the team in the short- and long-term (Twitter links).
- The Red Sox discussed Upton with the D'Backs late into Tuesday night, reports CSNNE.com's Sean McAdam, but talks are now stalled over Towers' latest demands.
- The Braves are unlikely to pursue Upton after trading for Dan Uggla, GM Frank Wren implied (via Joel Sherman on Twitter).
- The D'Backs will seek at least four or five players in return for Upton, reports Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. He believes perhaps three of those players would have to be big league ready.
- USA Today's Bob Nightengale introduced the idea of Upton as a trade candidate on Monday, and the rumors took off yesterday. Today, Nightengale says the Yankees' offer for Upton has fallen short but the Red Sox remain engaged. Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers described the Upton trade talks as "people kicking the tires right now."
- Towers told Joel Sherman of the New York Post, "[Upton] would be a tough guy to move. But you always seek out the information on what teams will do because you never know if, to get one player, a team will grossly overpay." Sherman added via Twitter that the D'Backs "have [a] growing belief [they] will trade Upton based on [a] ton of interest."
- Sherman talked to one team executive who says the Marlins have had the most interest in Upton for a while. An exec speculated that Logan Morrison and Ricky Nolasco would get it done, notes Sherman.
- It's not known if the Rays would like to add a second Upton, but the execs Sherman spoke to consider them an early favorite along with the Marlins.
TwinsVet
I know the Twins aren’t going to be in on it, but Revere + Baker + ???
It’d be great to replace Cuddyer with Upton.
Too bad the Twins never make a splash with trades or signings…
Steveospeak
I’m guessing the Twins would need to offer at least one other significant prospect. Revere is good but he isn’t on the same level as Morrison. Baker and Nolasco are roughly equal, Nolasco better numbers but in the N.L. and could earn a bit more through Arb.
TwinsVet
Kinda what I figured. One of Hicks/Revere could be made available, but I don’t think Hicks/Revere + Gibson/Sano is an option for us. Of our top 4 prospects (Hicks, Revere, Gibson, Sano), we could really only afford to part with one of them.
shysox
I’m not aware of the Twins system at all, but isn’t Aaron Hicks better then Ben Revere?
And if the twins can give up Nolasco and Morrison to get it done, do you think that John Danks and Gordon Beckham can get it done? Well, it’s too bad the White Sox have no interest in Upton, hopefully he doesn’t turn out like his brother though.
TwinsVet
Hicks has better upside than Revere, but is also further away from arriving in the bigs.
I’d think Danks + Beckham + B+ prospect would be a pretty attractive package, and worth taking a look at. Gordon’s stock took a hit last year (IMHO), but if he can stick at MI, he should still be a fairly attractive trade chip.
shysox
Well, obviously you’re right about Gordon’s stock taking a hit, he was absolutely horrible last year but he ended the season hitting above .250, fortunately he hit (.310/.380/.497/.877) in the 2nd half compared to a (.216/.277/.304/.581) in the first half. and he had a pretty good 2nd half but this will be a completely biased thought, but would John Danks+Gordon Beckham+Dayan Viciedo+cash considerations be a better package then a nolasco+morrison and a baker+hicks/revere? i mean, you might think I’m a homer but i personally think, IMO Danks is better than Nolasco and Baker and Beckham is better than Revere/Hicks and Morrison, I mean of course this is coming from a White Sox fan, but despite his down season I still think he has A potential and he’s a 5 tool player, if he has a few more years in the majors i think he could develop into an elite player, but Morrison will probably be a better hitter, but he doesn’t hit much power, but he can hit for a much higher average, of course. But before you say that my statement is wrong, consider this. If beckham had more then 5 minutes in the minors, he could’ve easily been a top 5 prospect, and he was rushed to the majors, i think he should’ve spent 2009 completely in the minors, but that’s just me. Beckham also never played 2nd base in the minors before, but after the Mark Teahen trade next year, they told him to move to 2nd base, a position he has never played in the minors, that might’ve been one of the reasons he started off the season slow, too much focus on his fielding, but what do you guys think?
jwsox
well looking at danks he is by far better than those two pitchers…not saying those two are back but danks is an over all better pitcher ad younger than both i believe…..as for gordon he is better then the prospects simply because he is not a prospect and has proven for more time than the others he can handle big league pitching
jwsox
well looking at danks he is by far better than those two pitchers…not saying those two are back but danks is an over all better pitcher ad younger than both i believe…..as for gordon he is better then the prospects simply because he is not a prospect and has proven for more time than the others he can handle big league pitching
BrocNessMonster
That second half line is more what he should be good for in the majors, and let me say this, coming from a second baseman? An .877 OPS from your 2nd baseman???!!!??? That’s beast mode right there. If they want to get rid of him, I’d hope the Dodgers are all over it.
JustMyLuck
Kenny Willimas is trying to move either Gavin Floyd or Edwin Jackson, not Danks. Plus they are looking for a run producing left handed bat.
jwsox
kenny williams is trying to move them? where have you heard this?
jwsox
kenny williams is trying to move them? where have you heard this?
Josh Brewer
Yeah last i heard on Danks they were trying to extend him.
jwsox
his stock is actually just as good as it ever was…he kit something like .330/.380//.400 after the all star break…(obviously not those exact numbers but it was crazy good) and while his stock may be lowered all the gm’s also know it is his second year in the bigs, his 3rd position in 2 years, and he is under team control for the next 6 years
TwinsVet
I’m not saying he doesn’t have incredible potential.I’m just saying I think his trade chip value was higher this time last year, before people realized he’s actually human.
M_Harden
How many humans do you know are 23 years old, put up 3.8 WAR in a “down” year, and do so in only 571 PA?
TwinsVet
Again, the kid’s a stud. I’m not saying he isn’t going to make several All-Star games. I just get the sense that he could have brought a bigger return this time last year.
M_Harden
Well duh, but even at his lowest point he’s still got incredible trade value. Why even mention it? It’s so blatantly obvious. And your offer featured Revere and Baker as the core for the package. lol to the max. It’s going to take Gibson and Hicks as the centerpieces plus more.
TwinsVet
It seemed relevant. This time last year, Beckham + A prospect could have got it done. Now, it’d take Beckham + A prospect + B- prospect.
Revere & Baker is the type of package that addresses “immediate and long term” value, which the reports indicate Towers would be looking for. I obviously don’t have any illusions such a package could get it done, I was merely stating that it’s probably the best we could reasonably offer.
Why is it some Sox fans just instinctively feel the need to bash anyone from Minnesota, even when they’re acknowledging they can’t put a winning package together and the Sox have a stud kid?
M_Harden
Best you could offer? Baker and Revere are average players AT BEST. That’s absolutely ridiculous.
And I don’t know about the Sox fans insulting Twins fans thing. Maybe you should go ask a Sox fan.
TwinsVet
You must have missed the part of the post where I listed Revere, Hicks, Sano, and Gibson, and indicated we could package one of them with Baker, but not 2 or more of them.
And yes, I stand by the notion that the Twins really cannot afford to give up 2 of our top prospects. They’d need to in order to make a deal happen, but our farm isn’t deep enough right now with blue chippers to afford to part with two of them.
TwinsVet
I’m not saying he doesn’t have incredible potential.I’m just saying I think his trade chip value was higher this time last year, before people realized he’s actually human.
jwsox
his stock is actually just as good as it ever was…he kit something like .330/.380//.400 after the all star break…(obviously not those exact numbers but it was crazy good) and while his stock may be lowered all the gm’s also know it is his second year in the bigs, his 3rd position in 2 years, and he is under team control for the next 6 years
Steveospeak
I think what TwinsVet was saying is they could improve it by offering Hicks over Revere, but they can’t do two of their top 4 guys…just speculating though.
Danks and Beckham are comparable to Nolasco, Morrison, but I’d have to imagine it would take more to get a deal done. I also think pitchers like Nolasco, Danks, Baker would have more trade value to a team other than the D-Backs. They all are good number 3 pitchers with value, but only have 2 years of team control remaining. I don’t see how centering a deal (first or 2nd piece) around a pitcher like that makes sense for Arizona. If they are moving Upton I don’t see how they are competing by the end of the deal. Sure they would have good resale value (i.e. Edwin Jackson), but the D-backs have to be regretting that Jackson deal even if the did get Dan Hudson and Ian Kennedy. Now maybe if this expands to a three team deal guys like Baker, Danks and Nolasco could be in play, but right now If I’m Arizona I want guys with 4 years of team control at least.
Hoosierdaddy92
very true. The Dbacks should be looking at pitching PROSPECTS that can help them in the somewhat distant future like 3-4 years, not right now. Otherwise, dealing Upton, a player that can help you Now AND in the near future, is counterproductive. Dealing Upton would signify the Dbacks see themselves more likely to compete in 3-4 years with ALL the pieces they acquire from the Upton trade plus their own pieces, rather than just having Upton and paying him his full-salary as well as their own pieces. Team’s with a plethera of high quality pitching prospects, i.e. the Dodgers, Rays, or even Tigers should be the main people the Dbacks talk to.
Steveospeak
Yeah they might take a 3 year arb. guy like Garza, but yeah they need guys for the future. I think an Upton deal could make sense for the D-backs esp. if they move Drew as well. I think they will want a pitcher or two, but remember their primary return for Jackson and Haren were pitchers plus Ian Kennedy. Arizona I’m sure would want another arm or two, but I also think they want a couple high upside position prospects.
It would not surprise me in the least to see two of the top three players back in the deal to be positional guys.
Steveospeak
Yeah they might take a 3 year arb. guy like Garza, but yeah they need guys for the future. I think an Upton deal could make sense for the D-backs esp. if they move Drew as well. I think they will want a pitcher or two, but remember their primary return for Jackson and Haren were pitchers plus Ian Kennedy. Arizona I’m sure would want another arm or two, but I also think they want a couple high upside position prospects.
It would not surprise me in the least to see two of the top three players back in the deal to be positional guys.
$1529282
Hicks is better than Revere, and just about any prospect we have (Gibson aside, maybe).
Baseball America ranked him 9th in MLB during their Midseason Top 25, which I realize is weakened because several elite prospects (Heyward, Stanton, Posey, etc.) have already been called up, but he’ll likely land in the Top 25 in MLB again preseason, along with Kyle Gibson.
$1529282
Hicks is better than Revere, and just about any prospect we have (Gibson aside, maybe).
Baseball America ranked him 9th in MLB during their Midseason Top 25, which I realize is weakened because several elite prospects (Heyward, Stanton, Posey, etc.) have already been called up, but he’ll likely land in the Top 25 in MLB again preseason, along with Kyle Gibson.
jwsox
I would guess that the deal from the whitesox could be one of these two…Danks+Quentin+jarred mitchel/jordan danks+relief prospect..but that deal is only if danks turns down the extension….now if danks agrees to an extension then this could possibly be a deal for them….Floyd+Gordon Beckham+jarred mitchell/ jordan danks+ relief prospect…both very good deals…maybe throw quentin into the second deal too but highly doubtfull…maybe try to get drew or kelly johnson back from the dbacks as well
Nicolas_C
I would ABSOLUTELY NOT not Danks and Beckham for Upton. First of all, we have a full outfield. Second of all, it’s just not worth it. Let’s just look at Danks:
Danks- 4.3 WAR in 2010
Upton- 3.1 WAR in 2010
Yes, Upton did have 4.6 WAR in 2009, but Danks AND a potential future star in Beckham would not be worth it with our loaded outfield. And as you alluded to, you never know if Justin could be the next Bossman Junior.
BrocNessMonster
Agree. I’d maybe consider Beckham + a prospect and a lower level guy for Upton but….
$1529282
I wouldn’t put Revere in our Top 4 prospects. Joe Benson’s bat has far more upside, and Alex Wimmers could be ahead of him too. Revere just doesn’t have the power or outfield arm to be an elite prospect.
But by all means, give them Span, Benson, and Gibson… hell give them pretty much whoever they want. I’d give up just about anything short of Sano for Justin Upton.
$1529282
I wouldn’t put Revere in our Top 4 prospects. Joe Benson’s bat has far more upside, and Alex Wimmers could be ahead of him too. Revere just doesn’t have the power or outfield arm to be an elite prospect.
But by all means, give them Span, Benson, and Gibson… hell give them pretty much whoever they want. I’d give up just about anything short of Sano for Justin Upton.
TwinsVet
True, Benson’s emergence and Sano’s signing last year have knocked Revere’s standing a bit. This time last year Revere was in our Top-4; at this point it’s debatable. I think Revere’s edge over Hicks/Benson/Sano is just that he’s closer to actually making a starting roster spot – he was the only one of the four who was a September call-up, after all.
I look at Upton as a long-term replacement for RF with Cuddyer’s pending departure. I still think Span is an above-average lead-off guy and competent in CF (not to mention cheap, and for several years). Gibson is our next best internal option for a quality SP. Those two guys are tough to move in my book.
Anyhow, this is all just a fantasy anyways. I think we can all agree the Twins aren’t even in the conversation.
mauerfan
Joe Benson>Revere. Revere isn’t all that, he has a terrible arm. all he can do is hit singles and run fast. reminds me of Span.
TwinsVet
Kinda what I figured. One of Hicks/Revere could be made available, but I don’t think Hicks/Revere + Gibson/Sano is an option for us. Of our top 4 prospects (Hicks, Revere, Gibson, Sano), we could really only afford to part with one of them.
Steveospeak
I’m guessing the Twins would need to offer at least one other significant prospect. Revere is good but he isn’t on the same level as Morrison. Baker and Nolasco are roughly equal, Nolasco better numbers but in the N.L. and could earn a bit more through Arb.
Dave_Gershman
For the Twins, it would have to be
Ben Revere Kyle Gibson Danny Valencia Miguel Angel Sano
I still like the Royals as the best fit…Billy Butler, Mike Montgomery, Crawford Simmons, and Yordano Ventura.
TwinsVet
…and that’s just never going to happen. Gibson/Valencia/Sano all in the same package would simply not happen. There’s no single player out there who is good enough and cheap enough and young enough to justify a package like that.
Dave_Gershman
Valencia, Span and Sano and Slama I’d do that
TwinsVet
No way. Valencia is hugely valuable. 3rd in AL ROY voting, demonstrated ability to hit .300 with some pop, and under control for 5+ years still.
Sano is arguably the best 17-year old MI prospect in the world.
Putting one of them to headline a package would be tough. Both would be unthinkable.
BrocNessMonster
Kansas City is not a team that needs to be trading away top prospects. Even if it is for a potential franchise player.
Keith Santee
In considering a package for Justin Upton, I took a look at what their GM was saying.
Towers is committed to rebuilding the bullpen and adding a closer, and the latter he said would more than likely come via a trade rather than the free-agent market. He’d also like another starting pitcher, a left fielder and more bench strength. The D-backs are also committed to cutting the player payroll from $75.5 million at the start of this past season to about $60 million in 2011. “I’d like to compete and hopefully win the division in 2011. So any move that we make is going to be for more Major League-ready players. I’m not looking to acquire A-ball prospects right now.”
So let start with Soria as the main part of this trade package. His remaining contract including club options totals $26.75 million through 2014. Only $4.75 million is guaranteed for next year and if the 2012 option is not picked up. While Justin Upton contracts runs from 2011 -2015 and has a total guaranteed value of $49.5 million 11:$4.25M, 12:$6.75M, 13:$9.75M, 14:$14.25M, 15:$14.5M). He also has a limited no-trade protection and may block deals to four clubs.
Soria would address his search for a closer and salaries for next year are about the same.
As far as reducing payroll, this has already been accomplished with the departures of Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Rodrigo Lopez, Kris Benson, Adam Laroche, Mike Hampton, Aaron Heilman, Connor Jackson, Chad Qualls and Edwin Jackson. Players eligible for arbitration includes Joe Saunders, Stephen Drew, Kelly Johnson and Miguel Montero. Players with signed contracts for 2011 include Chris Young – CF (2011-2013 $32 million with $1.5 million buyout for 2014 – otherwise $11 million club option) and Mark Reynolds – 3B (2011-2012 $13 million with $.5 million buyout for 2013 – otherwise $11 million club option) and Geoff Blum – UT (2011-2012 $2.7 million)
I do not see Towers trading any of his salary arbitration guys. He might be interested in moving Chris Young but his contract seems pretty high for a career .241 hitter. Mark Reynolds is going no where. With over 200 strikeouts a season and a batting average under the Mendosa line last year, he is pretty much untradeable unless they eat a lot of his contract.
So what else is it going to take to make this attractive? In looking at their depth charts, I am not impressed with their personnel at 1B, LF, 3B and relief pitching. You could offer Clint Robinson (AA Triple Crown Winner) as a 1B candidate to compete with Brandon Allen. You could offer a choice between Wilson Betemit and Josh Fields as a possible bench player and to replace Mark Reynolds if they do something with him. As far as outfielders, I would offer a choice between Mitch Maier, Gregor Blanco, and Jarrod Dyson. As far as relief pitchers, I would offer a choice between Philip Humber and Greg Holland.
All of the latter candidates have low contract values and addressed the Diamondbacks immediate needs. I would love to see us move about 4-5 players off of our 40 man roster and use the slots to protect some more players before the Rule 5 draft. Maybe we could keep one open to take another Soria type player.
Just a thought!
Keith Santee
Towers is committed to rebuilding the bullpen and adding a closer, and the latter he said would more than likely come via a trade rather than the free-agent market. He’d also like another starting pitcher, a left fielder and more bench strength. The D-backs are also committed to cutting the player payroll from $75.5 million at the start of this past season to about $60 million in 2011. “I’d like to compete and hopefully win the division in 2011. So any move that we make is going to be for more Major League-ready players. I’m not looking to acquire A-ball prospects right now.”
So let start with Soria as the main part of this trade package. His remaining contract including club options totals $26.75 million through 2014. Only $4.75 million is guaranteed for next year and if the 2012 option is not picked up. While Justin Upton contracts runs from 2011 -2015 and has a total guaranteed value of $49.5 million 11:$4.25M, 12:$6.75M, 13:$9.75M, 14:$14.25M, 15:$14.5M). He also has a limited no-trade protection and may block deals to four clubs.
Soria would address his search for a closer and salaries for next year are about the same.
As far as reducing payroll, this has already been accomplished with the departures of Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Rodrigo Lopez, Kris Benson, Adam Laroche, Mike Hampton, Aaron Heilman, Connor Jackson, Chad Qualls and Edwin Jackson.
Players eligible for arbitration includes Joe Saunders, Stephen Drew, Kelly Johnson and Miguel Montero. Players with signed contracts for 2011 include Chris Young – CF (2011-2013 $32 million with $1.5 million buyout for 2014 – otherwise $11 million club option) and Mark Reynolds – 3B (2011-2012 $13 million with $.5 million buyout for 2013 – otherwise $11 million club option) and Geoff Blum – UT (2011-2012 $2.7 million)
I do not see Towers trading any of his salary arbitration guys. He might be interested in moving Chris Young but his contract seems pretty high for a career .241 hitter. Mark Reynolds is going no where. With over 200 strikeouts a season and a batting average under the Mendosa line last year, he is pretty much untradeable unless they eat a lot of his contract.
So what else is it going to take to make this attractive? In looking at their depth charts, I am not impressed with their personnel at 1B, LF, 3B and relief pitching. You could offer Clint Robinson (AA Triple Crown Winner) as a 1B candidate to compete with Brandon Allen. You could offer a choice between Wilson Betemit and Josh Fields as a possible bench player and to replace Mark Reynolds if they do something with him. As far as outfielders, I would offer a choice between Mitch Maier, Gregor Blanco, and Jarrod Dyson. As far as relief pitchers, I would offer a choice between Philip Humber and Greg Holland.
All of the latter candidates have low contract values and addressed the Diamondbacks immediate needs. I would love to see us move about 4-5 players off of our 40 man roster and use the slots to protect some more players before the Rule 5 draft. Maybe we could keep one open to take another Soria type player.
Just a thought!
moonraker45
Morrison and Nolasco for Upton????/
I’d do that in a heartbeat (if i’m the marlins)
Tko11
Agreed, Upton is a great outfielder. It might make up for all the bad moves they have made this offseason if thats possible.
marlinsfanatic
Why would you guys do that? LoMo projects be a great ball player. If we trade ricky we would have to sign a starter for sure. If i were marlins i would offer nolasco, kyle skipworth, and one of our good minor league arms like brad hand.
moonraker45
Should have just traded Uggla for Drabek! lol
marlinsfanatic
Haha i guess so. Better than infante and dunn.
Serdar Sirin
They have to offer Drabek first, which they didnt.
Jon Stark
That was the joke…
Serdar Sirin
Missed it, sorry. It’s been a long two days, lol
Tko11
I rather have a proven outfielder than a prospect who may still go either way(ex Brandon Wood last year). Nolasco isn’t exactly irreplaceable either… Either way Id imagine the dbacks would want more than just those two. I would not give more than those two if I was the Marlins…Upton’s value is overhyped at this point and as it has been said some team would have to overpay(player wise) to pry him away from the dbacks.
BrocNessMonster
I don’t think I’d be letting Skipworth go anywhere. And, LoMo, projects as a good hitter, but I can’t remember seeing any good reviews on his D. Upton scores runs with the bat, and saves em with the glove. LoMo would have to hit a ton to be close to Upton’s value.
ludafish
LoMo is actually a first baseman and they ranked his defense pretty high….not amazing but they said he had a chance to be great. he was never an outfielder. I would definitely prefer upton in the outfield over Lomo
ludafish
I would give up Ricky and someone else for Upton all day, but i dont want to trade LoMo either. He is projected to hit over .300 and about 20hr with 90rbi a season with a great OPB (at least thats what they predicted out of him before he came up) and we’ve really yet to see what he can do in a full season. Skipworth is supposed to be the future, but with Buck now he is expendable and they can find someone else by the time his 3 years are up. I’d give Gaby Sanchez, Ricky, and Skipworth. LoMo can go back to first and cogz in left…but i doubt it will happen
roberty
The Marlins interest in Upton is surprising to me, as he is owed a lot of money ($50 million) over the next five years. I’m not saying it wouldn’t be worth it, I’m just saying the Marlins are cheapskates and wouldn’t be very excited to be paying anyone $15 million a year.
tomymogo
I wouldn’t trade Morrison…….How about Gaby Sanchez, Scott Cousins, and Ricky Nolasco…….Move Morrison to 1B, Upton CF, Coghlan LF, Infante 2B, Viciedo 3B, Buck Catcher……Better defense, better offense, though less pitching, and less depth, and more salary.
Pretty good team, if they do that and use the money to acquire pitching and depth.
BrocNessMonster
Did I miss a post? The Marlins got Dayan Vicideo?!?!
shysox
yeah, what the hell, viciedo?
tomymogo
Sorry confused Viciedo with Matt Dominguez.
14 Rocks
I agree. That GM is out of his mind. It would take a lot more than that to get Upton.
iains
I imagine there will be a ‘We do not comment on possible negotiations’ comment from the Toronto front office. AA tends to be a real killjoy that way.
bbxxj
I hadn’t given Upton much thought since we got our ‘big right handed bat’ but he does make alot of sence for the Rays and they definately have the ammo to get it done. Wade Davis, Reid Brignac, Jake McGee, and Drew Vettleson? I bet Rays fans think thats too much and DBacks fans think its too little.
Steveospeak
I’m neither fan and I’d probably say that is too much. If I’m the Rays I’d rather move Garza as part of the deal in terms of money and hang on to Vettleson. Garza, Brignac and McGee still could be ‘too much’ but I think the D-Backs might bite (if they are also dealing Drew that is). Still don’t think it will happen though.
Rays fan 95
I wouldn’t want to send off Mcgee or Brignac. Do you think we could send Garza, Bartlett and another prospect such as Torress?
Jon Stark
Garza doesn’t have enough team control left to make sense for Arizona, unless of course a third team was brought in to which Garza was then flipped for more young, controllable talent.
bbxxj
Agreed. Arizona is going to want players still in their pre-arbi stages. To be the top bidder in this one a pitcher along the lines of Davis, Hanson, Porcello, Hughes, Nolasco etc will have to be going to the desert.
14 Rocks
Dave Cameron suggested on fangraphs that it would take an offer of something like Hanson, Minor, Freeman, Teheran plus another prospect from the Braves to get Upton. That is a ton more than this Morrison/Nolasco from the Marlins suggestion. I don’t see any team meeting Arizona’s asking price if Cameron is correct.
BrocNessMonster
Hahahah! I’d take Tommy Hanson straight up for damn near any player, including Upton.
The_Porcupine
What about Shields? He’s under a more budget friendly contract. Maybe if his brother is on the team, BJ will take his head out of his ###.
BrocNessMonster
Exactly.
Jon Stark
Garza doesn’t have enough team control left to make sense for Arizona, unless of course a third team was brought in to which Garza was then flipped for more young, controllable talent.
Steveospeak
Unfortunately not, the Rays have to give up a couple of good prospects to get this deal done. Garza has value, but Bartlett doesn’t make much sense for Arizona. Upton has one of the highest trade values out there right now (of likely traded players, so no Posey or Longoria type guys), with Greinke being perhaps the only guy I’d say with more value.
Steveospeak
Unfortunately not, the Rays have to give up a couple of good prospects to get this deal done. Garza has value, but Bartlett doesn’t make much sense for Arizona. Upton has one of the highest trade values out there right now (of likely traded players, so no Posey or Longoria type guys), with Greinke being perhaps the only guy I’d say with more value.
Hoosierdaddy92
The Rays have already dealt with one headache named Upton, you really think they want to chance having another one?
Steveospeak
I know he has been frustrating but I am sure plenty of teams around the league would take BJ upton if he is available (which he could be)
Hoosierdaddy92
yea but then if the Rays trade BJ and get Justin, there’s might be a bit of a bad vibe there? just a thought. It’d be nice for the Rays to get Justin. It would be a Justince (lol) in Baseball considering all the good players they are losing this offseason.
Hoosierdaddy92
yea but then if the Rays trade BJ and get Justin, there’s might be a bit of a bad vibe there? just a thought. It’d be nice for the Rays to get Justin. It would be a Justince (lol) in Baseball considering all the good players they are losing this offseason.
Steveospeak
I know he has been frustrating but I am sure plenty of teams around the league would take BJ upton if he is available (which he could be)
BrocNessMonster
D’Back fans should be all over getting like 5 or 6 years of Davis and McGee + for 5 years of Upton.
Serdar Sirin
I wouldn’t move Morrison personally.
Guest
I’m waiting for a future opening line. The Boston Red Sox were interested until ______ slipped in and made the deal.
dizzle4
That offer makes me angry that the Jays sold so low on Brett Wallace. I figure something like Wallace and one of the Jays starters would be a similar offer, with maybe a small extra piece thrown in.
MeOnTheInternet
I’d rather have Logan Morrison over Brett Wallace 99 times out of 100. I rather like Nolasco too.
If Jays offered Wallace and Cecil, it still would have been a worse offer than Morrison and Nolasco IMO
Steveospeak
Yeah despite being traded every 6 months, Brett Wallace has a lot of value, and in fact I’d say he is very similar to Morrison. Neither project as elite 1B (i.e. Pujols, Tex, A. Gonzalez) but both should be in that next grouping Derek Lee in his prime, Justin Morenau, Votto before this year etc.
Nolasco has more current value, but a guy like Cecil should do well in the N.L. and is cheaper with more years of control.
jdub220
Wallace is nowhere close to as good as Morrison.
jdub220
Wallace is nowhere close to as good as Morrison.
MeOnTheInternet
I still say Morrison has much more value.
Wallace seems like he’s a “hitter”, where Morrison seems a more complete “player” ( just try putting Wallace in the OF :)).
And, despite Wallace’s bat being his best attribute, Morrison did better in his first year.
Wallace was a K machine and his body looked even worse than I had heard. Whereas Morrison stayed around 300, almost 1:1 K:bb ratio, and had a long hitting streak too.
Morrison looked much better than Wallace, but Wallace looks like he’s got more power.
Jon Stark
How is Morneau not an elite 1B? Is it because he hasn’t collected enough MVP votes over the years? I don’t see what AGon has on Morneau either than maybe a better health record.
Steveospeak
You make it seem like I’m knocking Morneau which I’m not at all. Justin is well worth his weight in gold. I would probably put him 5th on my first base rankings above Fielder and Howard because of his defense. The reason I put Tex ahead of him is health as well as despite UZR saying differently I like his defense better. As for Adrian Gonzalez his home away splits are so opposite, he is in my opinion the 2nd best hitting first baseman (while having a good defensive track record as well). Gonzalez has a .150 point difference between his home OPS to his Road OPS. Morneau’s is .50 points (and still isn’t as high as Gonzalez’s). For me Morneau is at the top of the 2nd tier prennial all-star category, and that is the peak I see for both Wallace and Morrison.
Tko11
2010 is really the only year he has had injury problems, before this year he has played 135+ games each year for the past 5 years or so. But yea he is around number 5 amongst 1b…
moonraker45
agreed. Morrison has the higher upset, the goal would be to get the highest impact player backk. cecil trumps nolasco, but Morrison trumps all
moonraker45
you mean the same wallace who was traded for that player just named our #3 prospect ahead of D’arnaud, Stewart, Arencibia, and Marisnick?
Encarnacion's Parrot
It’s unlikely that Wallace will turn out to be anything special, a poor man’s Adam Dunn perhaps. Gose has a much, much higher ceiling albeit he has a long way to go to reach it.
moonraker45
He didnt look comfortable in the batters box last year, who knows whats in store for him… he’s been traded by 3 different organizations. . I loved the deal, really shows what type of high impact players AA is gunning for. . No more lyle overbay types please
$1529282
Morrison >>>> Wallace
By a longshot. Wallace’s stock has really fallen off. I’ve heard two different prospect gurus project his ceiling as a “league average first baseman” at this point. One of the BA guys and Bryan Smith over at Fangraphs. Wallace just isn’t the elite prospect he once was.
$1529282
Morrison >>>> Wallace
By a longshot. Wallace’s stock has really fallen off. I’ve heard two different prospect gurus project his ceiling as a “league average first baseman” at this point. One of the BA guys and Bryan Smith over at Fangraphs. Wallace just isn’t the elite prospect he once was.
Char_Aznable
another shoulder waiting to blow out just like Nady A second opinion on outfielder Justin Upton’s ailing left shoulder revealed that the slight tear in his labrum that he suffered in 2006 has not gotten any worse and should not require surgery.
Char_Aznable
Ehh idk Probly another shoulder waiting to Blow up just like Nady…. A second opinion on outfielder Justin Upton’s ailing left shoulder revealed that the slight tear in his labrum that he suffered in 2006 has not gotten any worse and should not require surgery.
Two shoulder tears within couple years is not really a good thing
JEETtheHEAT17
The Yankees should get him and have Gardner as a 4th outfielder play Upton in left field . They have Austin Romine and a ton of talented good arms in the system and with the Dbacks GM coming from New York he knows more than the avg scout about the Yankees Farm system. But no way should they give Montero up
Mark S
The Yankees should get him and have Granderson as a 4th outfielderFTFY
Also Sanchez would be a better trading chip for them than Romine IMHO
Mark S
The Yankees should get him and have Granderson as a 4th outfielderFTFY
Also Sanchez would be a better trading chip for them than Romine IMHO
BentoBox
Yeah, I don’t think the D-Backs will give up Miguel Montero and Justin Upton in the same deal.
rfffr
I wouldn’t accept that. I’d want Stanton at least. But a trade probably won’t happen anyway. People seem to think that Towers is shopping him.
Serdar Sirin
The Marlins wouldn’t even give up Stanton 2-3 years ago for Manny Ramirez. And this was before Stanton was even known by anyone outside the team.
Stanton is not going anywhere. The offer would have to be unbelievably amazing.
Hoosierdaddy92
yea like Ozzie Guillen for Mike Stanton lol
JustMyLuck
I heard on the radio today in Chicago and they talked to Jerry Reinsdorf, that the player wasn’t Stanton but for Logan Morrison.
elscorcho the marlin
that was a fake story. sampson said stanton was never going to be moved.
Steveospeak
I think Stanton would be too much, while I don’t think Morrison and Nolasco is a great deal (mainly because you only have two more years of Nolasco) it is in the ballpark. If the Marlins add in a good minor leaguer or two (read that to be guys in the 5-15 range of their system) I think you’d have the makings of a deal.
Florida would shock me a little bit considering Maybin could have been a piece they used, or Uggla in a 3-way deal. they have already given up two of their best trade chips for bullpen and UTL help, not exactly selling high.
The_Silver_Stacker
They were desperate for relief pitching so It’s understandable, Justin would be a luxury
JEETtheHEAT17
Yankees should move in . Upton is still very young with tons of upside. If there GM trades Upton for anything less than 2 future stars or 1 star and 1 high upside guy he would be dumb … Upton is only 22 years old and has all the talent in the world . He still has 8 years in the league before most players are considered in there prime. The only reason I could see the move is that Upton is due 14 million each of his last 2 years of his contract but he is only due like 4.5 this season.
Devern Hansack
How about Upton to the Red Sox for Ellsbury and Doubront? That would be a pretty fair trade.
jdub220
No it wouldn’t.
An outfielder coming off an injury filled season who is a Boras client, and a pitcher who the Sox are actually trying to get rid of? No thanks.
MaineSox
I’m not saying that that is a fair trade, but it is also not fair to say that the Red Sox are “trying” to get rid of Doubront; first of all they are not trying to get rid of him, they said they would listen to offers (kinda like the D’backs with Upton…) and the only reason they would get rid of him is because they have the rotation set through 2014 with other good starting pitchers coming up behind him in the lower minors.
I think a more appropriate way to put it would be “an outfielder coming off of an injury filled season who is a Boras client, and a pitcher who is unproven” because he did come up and pitch well out of the rotation as well as the bullpen but it was only for a little over a month so it is hard to say just how good Doubront really is.
jdub220
No it wouldn’t.
An outfielder coming off an injury filled season who is a Boras client, and a pitcher who the Sox are actually trying to get rid of? No thanks.
wtk
Looks like the ‘trade Joba’ or ‘trade Ellsbury’ posts are going to take over these posts about Upton.
-wtk
Guest
Yeah, but at least Joba has some use somewhere..
brian mcgahan
I’m sorry but Ellsbury has more value than Joba right now, even coming off an injury. Ellsbury is capable of starting on just about every team and leading off…what is Joba’s “use” exactly? A questionable set up man? A very questionable back of the rotation starter? Jacoby Ellsbury was overrated a few years ago but he is more than capable of putting up Carl Crawford like numbers. Ribs heal with a year of rest, I think he’s soft but if you think any GM wouldn’t have a use for Ellsbury you are crazy.
YanksFanSince78
It’s funny as horrible as ppl want to accuse Joba of being look at reality.
353 IP, 362 KO (9.2/9 IP), 143 walks (3.6/9 IP), 33 hr (Less than 1 per 9 IP), 3.77 ERA and a 1.33 whip. All ages 21 to 24 w/less than 100 career minor lge IP.
All the hate towards Joba boils down to? A bad Aug/Sept in 2009 and a bad May and July in 2010. Other than that his ERA and Whips have been acceptable.
BrocNessMonster
A bad Aug/Sept and a bad May/July? Dude, that’s 33% of the last 2 seasons. A 1.33 WHIP is not very good. Typically you want a late inning releiver to NOT give up base runners.
moonraker45
I think a lot of it has to do with the fact that people thought he was going to be a lot better, and a starter.
$1529282
If you click the “Like” button again it’ll unlike it for you. 🙂
BrocNessMonster
I like how they were all “Joba for CC, and Ellsbury for Kemp” a few years ago, and now Ellsbury is a good 4th outfielder and Joba is a 7th inning guy. Just like all the people who were laughing at the people proposing those deals said they were. Ugh…
Mark S
oh Red Sox trade proposals never fail to amuse me.
BrocNessMonster
Ha, I liked that one a few years back where the Sox should send us David Wells for Matt Kemp right after he’d come up and hit 7 HR in his first month in the bigs.
The_Silver_Stacker
Not even close. They should ask for Clay Bucholz to start
Guest
Un-freaking-believable…What in the sam h_ll is wrong with you? Seriously dude…
Ellsbury is about as useless at the set of t_ts I grew this morning. Well, on second thought..
Encarnacion's Parrot
Perhaps you should either:
A: Get them looked at, or
B: Listen to ‘Lola’ by The Kinks and try to pick up a dude, or
C: Stop taking estrogen pills 😛
Ferrariman
maybe he’s a she?
Encarnacion's Parrot
If it were, I doubt she would have grown a rack in one night, unless puerty was in overdrive.
BrocNessMonster
Good song! Nice!
Encarnacion's Parrot
Perhaps you should either:
A: Get them looked at, or
B: Listen to ‘Lola’ by The Kinks and try to pick up a dude, or
C: Stop taking estrogen pills 😛
PookieGonzales
I know he’s overrated. But so say he’s bad is just stupid. Look at his numbers. Stop being a annoying redsox hater.
RedSox31
How about Ellsbury, Doubront, Kelly and Anderson. That would be the very least it would take to get Upton, even then probably not enough.
But he’s not coming to Boston.
brian mcgahan
The Diamondbacks would prefer Kalish probably. I find it ironic that all these people are acting like Kalish and Ellsbury are scrubs when their 2011 projections are almost the exact same as Carl Crawford. But whatever…
Guest
LOL.. christalmighty.
RedSox31
Then those predictions stink. I’m sorry, I like Ells and Kalish, but they won’t put up the same numbers as Crawford, especially not Kalish. He should spend another year in the minors, then be Drew’s replacement in 2012. Ells may put up similar BA, OBP and SB as Crawford, but Crawford has a bit more pop than Ells, and is arguably a better defender too (Ells never seems to get great jumps on balls, and his arm is pathetic).
I’d love to get Upton, but I just can’t see it happening. Just a pipe dream.
azdsnd
No. A package begins with Buchholz and Kelly.
Buchholz, Kelly, Bard/Doubront, and Kalish. That could *actually* get a trade done.
Dustroia15
So the Sox trade an ace/2nd starter, plus their top prospect, plus their most likely closer for the next 3 seasons, plus their second best prospect who is projected to put up Crawford like numbers next year? …..and that’s just to start? …..bwahahaha
If they had the same amount of team control, Ellsbury for Upton would be close. Doubront right now would be the 4th or 5th starter on nearly every team in the MLB.
I think the player being overrated here is Upton. The reason the Sox are so interested is because dollar wise he is cheaper than Werth and Crawford.
Dustroia15
So the Sox trade an ace/2nd starter, plus their top prospect, plus their most likely closer for the next 3 seasons, plus their second best prospect who is projected to put up Crawford like numbers next year? …..and that’s just to start? …..bwahahaha
If they had the same amount of team control, Ellsbury for Upton would be close. Doubront right now would be the 4th or 5th starter on nearly every team in the MLB.
I think the player being overrated here is Upton. The reason the Sox are so interested is because dollar wise he is cheaper than Werth and Crawford.
RedSox31
How about Ellsbury, Doubront, Kelly and Anderson. That would be the very least it would take to get Upton, even then probably not enough.
But he’s not coming to Boston.
BrocNessMonster
LoL you’re nuts! A 5 starter and a 4th outfielder?!?! I gotta quit reading these comments!
gothamgator
Seriously, if Upton could be had for Morrison and Nolasco, the Braves could trump that without blinking…
Jay212033
I know Wren said he’s done but if he isn’t in on this he’s a fool! Jair Jurrjens, Martin Prado and Randall Delgado/Arodys Vizcaino would get it done. An OF with Heyward AND Upton in it wuld be awesome!
atlbravosfan11
i think even that is too much. maybe take jj out of the equation and it’s ok, but why would we give up 2 of our top 3 pitching prospects… 2 of the top 50 prospects overall, along with our best starting pitcher from 2 years ago and the heart of our team… way too much.
azdsnd
Unlike the dolt who previously responded to you, I’ll provide some sense here. This is WAY too little. Prado is a nice player, but not a premium player. Jurrjens is a good pitcher, but he keeps getting worse (his ground ball rates keep falling – not a good thing for Chase Field).
A deal with Atlanta begins with Hanson or Teheran. If those guys are “untouchable” to you, then you have no idea what type of player you’re trying to trade for. No prospect is untouchable if you want Justin Upton.
Jay212033
I know Wren said he’s done but if he isn’t in on this he’s a fool! Jair Jurrjens, Martin Prado and Randall Delgado/Arodys Vizcaino would get it done. An OF with Heyward AND Upton in it wuld be awesome!
bbxxj
I think the Braves could trump that but I really don’t believe Wren will do it. Unless we add one of Hanson, Freeman, or Teheran into the deal we will very likely get trumped by another more free dealing GM. I can’t even count how many times Wren has hinted at or almost come out and said he won’t trade his ‘core prospects’ and we haven’t traded a big time prospect since Wren took over (unless you count Tyler Flowers or Gorkys Hernandez top prospects which I wouldn’t – just valuable prospects).
This Braves team will be built on the backs of Heyward, McCann, Freeman, Prado (maybe Uggla if extended) and a continual stream of top pitching prospects in both the rotation and pen and its time we Braves fans need to realize and embrace that that is what Wren is doing.
Kris Noble
You sir, have a vast (and objective) knowledge of the Braves and I applaud you for that.
gothamgator
I absolutely agree that other GMs could trump a Braves offer if Atlanta is not willing to include an established young pitcher and/or elite prospect… but my basic reaction was to the idea that Morrison and Nolasco could get the deal done. I agree with Jay that a core of JJ and Delgado or Vizcaino, with a couple other pitching prospects may be able get it done. (and truthfully, as close to untouchable as he is, I’d seriously consider Teheran in a deal too if it meant Heyward and Upton patrolling the OF for the next 5 years). I definitely don’t see young position players (a weakness in the organization) being included in a deal, but a deal centered on young pitching might work, and the Braves have plenty of that to make it happen. I mean, if you’re a GM thinking that it’s time to rebuild your organization, doing it around a bevy of young pitching talent would be a good place to start.That said, do I think it will happen, most likely not… but if Arizona would seriously consider trading Upton for Nolasco and Morrison, it would behoove the Braves to get in on the conversation…
gothamgator
I absolutely agree that other GMs could trump a Braves offer if Atlanta is not willing to include an established young pitcher and/or elite prospect… but my basic reaction was to the idea that Morrison and Nolasco could get the deal done. I agree with Jay that a core of JJ and Delgado or Vizcaino, with a couple other pitching prospects may be able get it done. (and truthfully, as close to untouchable as he is, I’d seriously consider Teheran in a deal too if it meant Heyward and Upton patrolling the OF for the next 5 years). I definitely don’t see young position players (a weakness in the organization) being included in a deal, but a deal centered on young pitching might work, and the Braves have plenty of that to make it happen. I mean, if you’re a GM thinking that it’s time to rebuild your organization, doing it around a bevy of young pitching talent would be a good place to start.That said, do I think it will happen, most likely not… but if Arizona would seriously consider trading Upton for Nolasco and Morrison, it would behoove the Braves to get in on the conversation…
roberty
The Braves minor league pitching is so deep we could trump any other teams offer without giving up any of our top 5 pitching prospects. I think Brandon Beachy is a prime trade candidate. His minor league numbers are mind boggling but he probably won’t get a chance to pitch much with Minor ahead of him and Medlen coming back from surgery later next season.
14 Rocks
Beachy is projected to be a #5 type starter or a middle reliever. He has very, very limited trade value.
gothamgator
Seriously, if Upton could be had for Morrison and Nolasco, the Braves could trump that without blinking…
Just_MLB
if the mets could move beltran, acquire some prospects, then package them along with some others for upton, it would be a win-win for both sides
timmytwoshoezzz
How are you going to get a substantial haul of prospects for Carlos Beltran with that albatross of a contract? The only way you get someone substantial for him is if the Mets eat nearly all of the money
Just_MLB
essentially…u would have to AT LEAST eat up 10 mil…
azdsnd
If I could fart silver, marry Scarlett Johansson, win the lottery, solve world hunger, and magically inherit x-ray vision, that would be a win-win for me and the world too. Just maybe not for Scarlett Johansson.
But it isn’t going to happen.
Just_MLB
so ur saying that if the mets eat Beltrans 2011 salary…and move him for lets say…3 prospects…1 high level, 1 mid-level, 1 low-level…then combine those prospects with 1 high-level, and one mid-low level of their own…giving the diamondbacks 5 prospects, 2 highly rated…that wouldnt be a win-win deal for both the mets and diamondbacks ?the mets get a under 25 corner outfielder….they keep pagan in CF…they dont dramatically increase payroll for 2012 and beyond. they take a bump this year but beyond that, castillo/perez and possibly k-rod’s contracts are off the books.the diamondbacks get to lower payroll and reload with 5 prospects, 2 ready to play this year…2-3 coming up soon…
minor tidbit – but supposedly David Wright and the Upton Brothers ( along with Ryan Zimmerman ) all played on the same team back in Virginia….
Kris Noble
“An exec speculated that Logan Morrison and Ricky Nolasco would get it done, notes Sherman.”
The executive isn’t Larry Beinfest by chance?
$1529282
What exec suggested that? It was probably Beinfest himself. If he was dumb enough to think Infante/Dunn was a good return for Uggla, he’s probably dumb enough to think Nolasco/Morrison lands Upton.
Nothing against Nolasco and Morrison, but we’re talking about one of the most talented all-around players in the game and he’s just 22 years old and signed through 2015.
$1529282
What exec suggested that? It was probably Beinfest himself. If he was dumb enough to think Infante/Dunn was a good return for Uggla, he’s probably dumb enough to think Nolasco/Morrison lands Upton.
Nothing against Nolasco and Morrison, but we’re talking about one of the most talented all-around players in the game and he’s just 22 years old and signed through 2015.
Mellon
Perfect fit for Philadelphia. They will need a power right-handed bat to replace Werth. If I am Ruben Amaro, I would think about sending Domonic Brown, Scott Mathieson, and one of the Phils low-level pitchers as an offer.
myname_989
I was in the process of typing almost the same exact thing right before I saw your comment. Good call. I’d certainly be willing to move Brown and Mathieson for Upton. I just don’t find a deal to be that simple. At 27, Mathieson is quickly aging out of “prospectdom” (although, injuries set him back, so he hasn’t realized his full potential yet.)
I agree though, depending on the area of need, I think they could match up. What would worry me is after 2011, when the Phils’ have Upton and Victornino in the outfield and a glaring hole in left field. The market for outfielders is weak in 2012, highlighted by names like Carlos Beltran, Jose Bautista and Nick Swisher.
elongenhagen
If a deal like that were to go down (Brown, Mathieson, Colvin or someone of the like) the worse case screnario for LF this season would be a platoon of Ibanez and Francisco/Mayberry. I think I could live with that.
myname_989
Definitely. I was talking about next season, after Ibanez (most likely) walks.
Dylan
They would be interested in Cosart, Singleton, and De Fratus. Cosart profiles as a starting pitcher with closing potential (Pappelbon-like). De Fratus could be a good set up guy. Singleton is a power bat that is a 1B naturally. I would trade Brown to get Upton, but I don’t know if Ruben would do that. Although I do like Upton, Victorino, Brown in the OF for the next couple years…
Mellon
I figured Mathieson would make sense because he is ready to step in immediately and the Dbacks bullpen is deplorable. The Dbacks would probably want someone to step into that spot right away.
As for the left field issues, considering the depth of the Phillies OF situation in the minors, especially if Singleton is able to make the transition there, one of their prospects could be ready to step in by that point. Otherwise, you could have Francisco play there and pick someone else up off the scrap heap.
elongenhagen
If a deal like that goes down (Brown, Mathieson, Colvin or someone similar not named Cosart) then the worst case scenario for LF next season is a platoon of Ibanez and Francisco/Mayberry. I could live with that.
myname_989
Oh, I definitely agree, and I think the D’backs would have interest in Mathieson (and probably a couple of other guys that have starting / bullpen potential, like Worley) and I’d make a move for Upton in a heartbeat. I just think that they’d want more than Brown and Mathieson, and more of an impact in 2011.
As for leftfield… I personally, am hoping that Singleton can translate his success into the outfield. If he can show some athleticism out there, then by all means, I want him out there as soon as possible. The guy has shown some real skill with the bat. On the other hand though, the thought of having another Burrell out there scares me… just a little. We did win a championship with Burrell patrolling left field. Lol. Can’t see other prospects being ready, or more than a marginal outfielder.
elongenhagen
woops…sorry for the redundancy
Muggi
As a Phils’ fan I’d do that in a second, but I don’t think it’s going to be enough. I like Mathieson alot, but he has next to no trade value. There’s no “re-establishing trade value” after two TJ surgeries. The success rate after TWO is about 20% from articles I’ve read.
It would probably take Brown, two of Worley/Colvin/May, AND Singleton to get him, given the extremely team-friendly contract and Upton’s age. The Nolasco/Morrison rumor is ridiculous.
NOW if I’m the Phils I offer something like Brown, Mathieson, Colvin, and Mike Rizzotti and try like hell to make Rizzotti out to be a late-blooming future solid 1B.
14 Rocks
But are the Phillies prospects a perfect fit for Arizona?? Your proposal isn’t close to being enough. They want multiple elite level pitching prospects plus others. I don’t see the Phillies as having the pitching prospects to get a deal done. Maybe Brown plus Singleton and your top top 2 young pitchers get it done but I doubt it.
Muggi
The Phils actually have some crazy pitching prospects, the problem in terms of THIS trade is they’re all were in A-ball last season (May, Colvin, Cosart, Zeid, Rodriguez, etc).
The Phils’ Lakewood Blueclaws won the first half title, second half title, and overall league championship last season, the first team ever to do so. Scouts were calling it the most talented A-ball team ever assembled. It doesn’t really help though, since the D-Backs are looking for guys to step in immediately.
melonis_rex
What does that do for Arizona? Takes out five years of one elite outfielder and replaces him with an outfielder who MIGHT be elite? I love Brown and think he’s a top 10 prospect in baseball, but him + Mathieson is definitely no dice if I’m Towers.
azdsnd
Horrible offer. Brown might keep KT on the phone just long enough for him to remember that the Phillies have no young, controllable, cheap, elite arms in the majors or upper minors.
In other words, the Phillies could give us their entire farm system and we wouldn’t give them Justin Upton in return.
Mellon
Perfect fit for Philadelphia. They will need a power right-handed bat to replace Werth. If I am Ruben Amaro, I would think about sending Domonic Brown, Scott Mathieson, and one of the Phils low-level pitchers as an offer.
The_Silver_Stacker
The Rays should package B.J. with some prospects for Justin
myname_989
Why is Bob Nightengale giving the Marlins so much credit? I’m sure they’d offer the D’backs one of two packages: 1) Ricky Nolasco and Mike Stanton 2) Josh Johnson and Logan Morrison. Maybe they’d be willing to move Hanley Ramirez’s salary. /sarcasm
PujolsHollidayWestbrook
Shelby Miller, Jason Motte/Mitchell Boggs, Jon Jay/Allen Craig, Bryan Anderson/Steven Hill? This gives them a future ace, a near-ready closer, serviceable outfielder, and a catcher with a mlb potential. All cost controlled. Any thoughts?
braves in 08
that is actually pretty realistic, and would probably make saying no extremely difficult..i live in Davenport IA and the last season ive been watching shelby miller play for the river bandits and he is going to be a beast..he is just so far ahead of the competition its not even funny….as well as matthew adams, who unfortunatly is kind of burried behind a firstbaseman named pujols or something..
Ferrariman
Matt Adams? one of my favorite prospect that no one knows about(my other Oscar Taveras). he is a future 1b/lf though, too bad he couldn’t stick to catcher. but the guy can flat out rake, reminds me a bit of Kubel without atrocious defense.
myname_989
I’m going to disagree with braves in 08 here. If you’ve been listening to some of the comments from Kevin Towers and the reporters over the past couple of days, the D’backs are going to want talent that can step in and contribute immediately that is controllable over the next couple of years. More so, he wants a big name to replace a fan favorite in Justin Upton. So, guys like Rick Procello, Billy Butler, and Domonic Brown come to mind.
It’s a good package. I just don’t think it’s what the D’backs are looking for.
braves in 08
jason motte and jon jay step in right now, and there is a very good chance shelby miller hits the bigs in september…miller has just as much upside as about anyone in the game
braves in 08
jason motte and jon jay step in right now, and there is a very good chance shelby miller hits the bigs in september…miller has just as much upside as about anyone in the game
myname_989
I’m going to disagree with braves in 08 here. If you’ve been listening to some of the comments from Kevin Towers and the reporters over the past couple of days, the D’backs are going to want talent that can step in and contribute immediately that is controllable over the next couple of years. More so, he wants a big name to replace a fan favorite in Justin Upton. So, guys like Rick Procello, Billy Butler, and Domonic Brown come to mind.
It’s a good package. I just don’t think it’s what the D’backs are looking for.
CJ Montiel
I think if the D-Backs accepted that it would be a huge win for the Cards. Unfortuneately they’re not going to accept any package that doesn’t have Rasmus’ name on it. I would offer Rasmus, Craig, Motte/Boggs, and Lynn.
That’s fair because it gives them guys with big league experience and includes Rasmus of course which looks to be more a guaranteed thing than Upton IMO.
PujolsHollidayWestbrook
Rasmus, Craig, Motte/Boggs, and Lynn for Justin Upton? You are crazy. Right now, Rasmus is about even to Upton as a player, especially considering Upton’s cost compared to Rasmus’. Allen Craig reminds me of Jason Kubel. It still waits to be seen if he can turn that into big league success though of course. Both Motte and Boggs have future closer potential and Lance Lynn is a project back-end starter. These guys are all cheap. Upton is cheap for Upton standards, but not compared to Rasmus. Rasmus won’t be in any deal, unless he is the centerpiece and even then it is doubtful.
azdsnd
Rasmus, Garcia, Motte, and prospect could do it. None of the offers I’m seeing in this thread will.
I also doubt AZ is very interested in Miller. Yeah, he’s going to be a stud, but we want a guy who IS a stud, and we have Jarrod Parker at Triple-A who also should be. We have plenty of Single-A arms, don’t need more, particularly if he’s the centerpiece of the deal.
stl_cards16
LOL ummm no? Rasmus is basically a cheaper version of Upton with a little less speed.
azdsnd
Comparing Rasmus to Upton is absolute absurdity. Here’s why:
1) Upton’s tools and upside, from a scouting perspective, are dramatically better.
2) Rasmus’ last two years: combined 5.8 FanGraphs’ WAR. Upton’s last two years: combined 7.7 FanGraphs’ WAR.
3) Rasmus is controlled for four years. Upton is controlled for five years.
4) Rasmus is one year older than Upton, which means he is already one year closer to his peak than Upton, despite being an inferior player.
Get real.
snaketrain
all of these sicken me – if we cant get any more for a guy who was “the best draft pick in 30 years” we shouldnt be trading…f the dbacks.
dizzle4
I haven’t read through everyone of these posts, but in general you’re right. The package should be pretty massive.
As a Diamondbacks fan – any specific needs/areas you’d be looking for in a hopeful return? Prospects? Slightly established guys?
snaketrain
playing gm for myself – i DONT make this trade based on pride alone. now that having been said, im not even a massive j-up fan – he seems to show a lack of work ethic and is largely inconsistent given his skillset. BUT – if he moves, as a fan I have to see something like a teams top 3 prospects or maybe 1st & 3rd best and some throw ins. At the very least, we should see a teams top hitting prospect and a very highly regarded (flamethrower, hopefully) arm. ANYTHING LESS THAN OVERPAYMENT IS NOT ACCEPTABLE KT!! I’m so sick of seeing this team get hosed in the trade market.
jdub220
Don’t confuse being smooth for lack of effort. J-Up works very hard.
jdub220
Don’t confuse being smooth for lack of effort. J-Up works very hard.
FishFan03
dont give up LoMo! try a deal including Ricky, Skipworth, and another prospect
myname_989
He’d have to change his Twitter name. LoMoD’backs doesn’t have the same ring LoMoMarlins does. Lmao
FishFan03
haha yea that wouldnt be good
FishFan03
haha yea that wouldnt be good
myname_989
He’d have to change his Twitter name. LoMoD’backs doesn’t have the same ring LoMoMarlins does. Lmao
elscorcho the marlin
man, i don’t want to give any of them up. i don’t see it. i know i am in the minority though.
azdsnd
You obviously have no comprehension of the value of Justin Upton. Then again, neither did the executive who thought Morrison and Nolasco “should” get it done.
angel31
Angels trade Santana, Mark Trumbo, and Peter Burjous for Upton.
Then Angels go trade for Greinke =)
BK
Trumbo, Conger and Mesa-Martinez?
picked_u_off
Angels then send us Mike Trout, Trevor Reckling, Hank Conger and Randal Grichuk for Greinke. =)
Guest
Crap…forgot about Skaggs already being traded…sorry bout that.
azdsnd
Diamondbacks refuse Angels offer, laugh to themselves about Angels’ stupidity.
TapDancingTeddy
I think Upton is a good player who’s still in potential mode. He’s had only one really good year offensively. To give up a lot for him is to assume that he is going to develop into a star.
Some think it a good bet because he’s only 23 next year. In looking at his brother who still only has one good year in his career, I’m not so sure.
For me the deciding point is his future salary of 39 million from 2013 to 2015. If Upton fails to show greatness in 2011 or 2012 that contract makes him an albatross 2013 onward.
The bottom line is I need to see another year like he had in 2009 to give the Diamondbacks the type of package that says I’m counting on Justin Upton as a team cornerstone. It’s too easy to get burnt otherwise.
azdsnd
Upton just put up 3.1 FanGraphs WAR/3.8 B-R WAR in his so-called “down year.” He’s young, will improve, signed to an incredible contract, and has unlimited potential.
TapDancingTeddy
Yes, he’s very talented. I hope I didn’t give the impression that I didn’t think that’s true.
Upton’s B-R WAR is 1.8 offensively and 2.0 defensively for the 3.8 you quoted. Personally, I like him more for his defense than for his offense, because a good defender is often more consistent over a players years under the age of 30.
On the other hand, in valuing a player, I don’t tend to trust dWAR as much as oWAR. That combined with my dislike of heavily backloaded contracts and the fact that the Diamondbacks are looking for a player-return overpay would keep me looking for another year of his 2009 performance before I’d bite.
NorthYorkJays
Adam Lind, Jesse Litsch, Zach Stewart, & Danny Farquhar for Justin Upton.
moonraker45
Too many questions for the dbacks in lind and litsch…
BoSoxSam
The marlins already traded for Upton, and now they’re going to move him AGAIN? Man I knew they were getting aggressive this year, but that seems a bit much.
moonraker45
woops.
BoSoxSam
Oh, great. Edit your comment now, and make ME look like the fool! 😉
moonraker45
I gave you a like to off set the inconvenience 🙂
moonraker45
Too many questions for the dbacks in lind and litsch…
Jason
Switch Litsch for Marcum and perhaps the Dbacks get interested.
NorthYorkJays
Can we settle on Rzepczynski? Marcum had a more valuable 2010 than Upton. Besides, the DBacks should want a younger, controllable player – Marcum has 2 years of arbitration left.
BrocNessMonster
That last guy just went to Oakland.
cfarris2010
AZ needs, LF, 1B and BP help the most. Trading Upton means they will also have a hole in RF, depending on the return. If Towers does this, it had better be able to fill a hole or two and help in the future. I would really rather him not trade him, but if he does, make it worth it.
Brian
How about Frazier, Alonso, Joseph, and Bailey from the Reds for Upton? That puts a top prospect about ready to break into the bigs at each of LF, 1B, BP. Frazier is also versatile enough for 3B. Bailey you can slot into the starting rotation. Joseph is looking like he will be a good closer-type arm for the BP.
jcf313
Thats what I’m saying, not sure if that would get it done but I can’t see why the Reds wouldn’t be in on this considering the need a LF. Although their looking for a leadoff hitter and Upton doesn’t fall under that category.
Brian
Tell the D-backs to take 2 of those 4 and give us Drew instead to play SS and leadoff for us. May need to throw in another lower level prospect
jcf313
Thats what I’m saying, not sure if that would get it done but I can’t see why the Reds wouldn’t be in on this considering the need a LF. Although their looking for a leadoff hitter and Upton doesn’t fall under that category.
Brian
How about Frazier, Alonso, Joseph, and Bailey from the Reds for Upton? That puts a top prospect about ready to break into the bigs at each of LF, 1B, BP. Frazier is also versatile enough for 3B. Bailey you can slot into the starting rotation. Joseph is looking like he will be a good closer-type arm for the BP.
jdub220
I think it’s funny that people think just because BJ had one good year and fell of the face of the earth means that Justin will too. They’re two entirely different people, guys.
snaketrain
but they come from the same family and display the same lack of work ethic…
jdub220
I’ll repost what I did above: “Don’t confuse being smooth for lack of effort. J-Up works very hard.”
snaketrain
smooth? hustling only when you personally feel its important aint that smooth.
jdub220
Are you from AZCentral?
azdsnd
What a ridiculous statement.
SMH.
melonis_rex
“but they come from the same family and display the same lack of work ethic… ”
Is this sarcasm?
jdub220
I think it’s funny that people think just because BJ had one good year and fell of the face of the earth means that Justin will too. They’re two entirely different people, guys.
Encarnacion's Parrot
What are the chances that the unnamed exec is Marco Scutaro too?
woadude
Marco Scutaro is an exec? sounds like a SS.
Encarnacion's Parrot
I guess you didn’t see Ben’s typo on the Scutaro article yesterday.
DBacksFan1
why would towers even consider trading upton,the team has many holes to fill and when healthy the dbacks are a much better team with upton. Trading him would be a mistake even with a group of prospects in return.
snaketrain
if they could literally rape another team i’d learn to live with it.
Wilson
that’s exactly the reason you trade him. because you have so many holes to fill…
Lars Chunks
Probably because like you said, they have tons of holes to fill. If they’re looking for 4-5 players in return, 3 of which are major league ready, then it might make sense to trade one player in order to fill 2-3 more of those holes.
DBacksFan1
why would towers even consider trading upton,the team has many holes to fill and when healthy the dbacks are a much better team with upton. Trading him would be a mistake even with a group of prospects in return.
HipNip2009
I’d love to see Upton on the Giants, but what they’d have to give up could come back to bite them, especially if one of the players was Jonathan Sanchez. So, it looks like an NL East or AL team. It’s hard to believe Towers would break up their core of young talent. The DBacks strike out a lot, could be more patient hitters but they’re young and athletic. They lacked pitching. They played the Giants tough.
azdsnd
Giants don’t have enough to make a deal sensible. Jonathan Freaking Sanchez isn’t the centerpiece of a Justin Upton trade. Try Sanchez and Bumgarner and Sandoval with prospects to be added and we’ll keep talking…
InLeylandWeTrust
The best part about trade rumors is hearing that respective team’s fans coming up with rediculous demands due to their built up anger of potentially losing a fan favorite. Sorry, but the Giants would not trade Bumgarner, Sanchez, Sandoval and more prospects to boot.
azdsnd
It’s not an absurd deal at all. Let’s break it down so you can understand.
Dave Cameron estimated that Upton should provide anywhere between $50MM-$100MM worth of surplus value on his contract. That is, value above what the team will pay him. So let’s split the difference – $75MM, or about 19 WAR in surplus value – and see what we can come up with.
Sanchez is about a 2.5-WAR player per year. He has four years of control left, three in arbitration. Let’s use the 20%/40%/60% standard rough arbitration estimates for player salary value that are often used. Sanchez would provide, in order, 2.5, 2, 1.5, and 1 WAR surplus value over the next four years, for a total of 7 WAR.
Bumgarner has five years of control (I believe), but his xFIP was a full run higher than his ERA. Using the same 20/40/60 for his arb years, though we aren’t sure if he’ll be a Super 2 or not. Roughly assuming a 3 WAR pitcher (2 WAR this year in 111 innings, need to build up innings numbers slowly), you get 3, 3, 2.4, 1.8, and 1.2 for a total of 11.4 WAR.
Combined, they’re worth 18.4 WAR. Seems fair right? Consider these additional factors: 1) More players means more roster spots. 2) Pitchers are more susceptible to injury. 3) Those arbitration estimates are conservative (i.e. Sanchez is going to get more than $1.6MM in his first arbitration year, particularly with a no-no on his resume). 4) You’re bidding against other teams for Upton, so the price is on the higher end of that 50-100 spectrum.
The second one is huge. What happens if we trade Upton and then Bumgarner blows out an elbow? Arms equal risks. So there’s value that needs to be made up, and prospects are a good bet to make it up.
Or Sandoval, but I don’t value him much. He’s got way too big of a chance to be a 1.5-WAR player if he’s at first everyday and doesn’t find any power, but arbitration will overpay him. No reason to make that a centerpiece of an Upton trade.
Not at all absurd. We have no need to trade Upton, particularly if people don’t start valuing him properly.
InLeylandWeTrust
Stats like WAR can be very helpful, but there is a point when you project it over the span of that many years that you can beat an argument to death.
Stats aren’t going to tell you that a team simply won’t trade:
1. A 21 year old starting pitcher who compiled an ERA of 3.00 in 18 starts while dominating at the highest stage of the sport of baseball,
2. A 3B who yes had a down year, but is only 24 and has a season where he hit to the tune of a .330 avg with 20+ homers,
3. Another relatively young starting pitcher who won 13 games with an ERA close to 3 with nasty stuff,
AND prospects to go along with it for ONE player. Just doesn’t make sense.
DBacksFan1
if the dbacks do choose to trade upton away i just hope we don’t get shorted,as much as i dislike the yankees maybe joba,pena,gardner and a couple of other bullpen arms would be an acceptable return?
Muggi
Wow, you’d consider that “not getting shorted”? You give Joba and Gardner a heck of a lot more value than I do I guess.
wait_HOWmanyrings
the yankees would LOVE that deal
Ferrariman
what?????? thats an absolutely horrible deal for the yankees!! Adams and Warren Phelps or no deal!! Yankees prospects have more value than normal prospects.
roberty
Beachy, Marek, Butts and Hoover for Upton. Dbacks get a ML ready starter with great upside in Beachy, two very high upside releivers in Marek and Butts, and a very good future middle of the rotation guy in Hoover. Four power pitchers who don’t walk a lot of guys or allow many baserunners.
2010 minor league stats
Brandon Beachy – 1.73 ERA / 1.014 WHIP / 11.2 SO/9 / 5.29 SO/BB
Stephen Marek – 1.14 ERA / 1.026 WHIP / 10.5 SO/9 / 3.70 SO/BB
Brett Butts – 1.52 ERA / 1.014 WHIP / 10.6 SO/9 / 4.67 SO/BB
JJ Hoover – 3.29 ERA / 1.246 WHIP / 8.9 SO/9 / 3.04 SO/BB
14 Rocks
Not even remotely in the ballpark. Beachy would be a throw-in to any deal, not a headliner. It WILL take multiple elite tier major league ready prospects to get Upton. Think more along the lines of Minor/Hanson/Teheran/Freeman/Kimbrel – not low end guys like Beachy and Marek. Would you trade Jason Heyward to the Phillies for Vance Worley and three minor league relievers?
Muggi
The Phils will take that deal. Get Wren on the phone
roberty
The difference between Heyward and Upton is that Upton will become fairly expensive by the end of his contract — he will earn $30 million between 2014 and 2015. The Braves always seem to drum up demand for their mediocre pitching prospects (a la Charlie Morton) so although I realize Beachy isn’t great, his 2010 numbers are phenomenal and you never know, a dumb GM might be willing to pull the trigger. I would never propose a trade that wouldn’t greatly favor the Braves, and I know this would never happen…but look at those stats!!!
jdub220
Trust me, Heyward will be owed almost $30MM in 2014-2015 too, unless he signs a very team friendly deal.
roberty
Doubtful he will get $15 million a year in arbitration. Uggla just had a career year and will top out around $10 million. Also, we’re talking guaranteed money here, not arbitration money.
jdub220
He could definitely get $10MM in ’14 and $14-16 in ’15.And arb money isn’t guaranteed, but the only way Heyward doesn’t get the money he will in arb is if he’s non-tendered. Which obviously won’t happen. Or if he seriously disappoints, which I don’t think will happen either.
azdsnd
I enjoy the fact that you proclaim Heyward more valuable than Upton and then compared him to Dan Uggla. If he’s on Uggla’s arbitration pay-scale, he’s not going to be more valuable than Upton.
roberty
I didn’t “proclaim Heyward more valuable than Upton” and I’m just saying Uggla hit over 30 HRs last year and he isn’t going to come close to $15 million a year. How many position players have earned $15 million a year via arbitration?
jdub220
How many players have the talent of Heyward?
roberty
I’m a Braves fan so I am biased. I would have to say…very few.
jdub220
If we’re talking all around talent based on their tools, I would say Upton is at his level (you’re welcome to disagree, but that isn’t really the point) but after that, zero… I think they are the two most talented players in baseball. So unless Heyward signs an Upton-esque extension, or something tragic happens, he will likely break arb records or at least come close to them.
gothamgator
I’m not sure I’m reading this correctly so I’m going to ask for clarification… Are you saying it would take a package along the lines of Minor/Hanson/Teheran/Freeman/Kimbrel to get Upton, or a package would have to revolve around one or two of these guys as a starting point, with others included?
gothamgator
OK, nvm that last comment, I just read below… if that’s the level of return Towers expects to get for Upton, Upton will no doubt remain a Diamondback. No team would be that dumb.
I agree that a deal centered around Beachy is not realistic either… I believe you undervalue him as a #5 starter (it’s tough to tell, but after his meteoric rise the last 2 years, i think he looks more like a low 3/high 4 type a guy, but we’ll see…).
As I stated somewhere earlier in this post, I think a realistic deal (though fully centered on pitching, as i admit im a lot more familiar with what the Braves have available than what the D-Backs need) centers on JJ and Delgado (or maybe Teheran, though i see this as a non-starter for Wren), and includes 2 more of the mid level starter/late inning reliever type (Minor, Beachy, Kimbrel).
A deal like you propose here is “not even remotely in the ballpark” in the opposite direction of what you were responding to.
azdsnd
Why is Jair Jurrjens valuable to Arizona? His ground-ball rates have declined each of the last two years, he never missed a ton of bats, and he’d be moving to a homer heaven.
Definitely starts with Teheran or Tommy Hanson.
azdsnd
If you’re not going to include Teheran or Hanson (or, heck, both of them), it’s not going to happen. Period.
T Morgan
I understand that Upton is a talent, but like you’ve been saying to all of the proposals the Braves fans have been putting forward, Get realistic. You want a Major League experienced future ace, and the top pitching prospect as well? And although you didn’t say it, I’m assuming that this is just a starting point to a deal? And I’m not sure why all the hate on JJ. First year in the bigs, has an ERA of 3.68, second year a 2.60 with 188 and 186 Ks respectively. Last year was an injury plagued year, and for the most part the injuries weren’t even on the arm. I think that is pretty good for a young pitcher
mrmoss
Yankees need to trade Swisher to get a few more pieces to include in trade for Upton
Tko11
A lot more pieces.
YanksFanSince78
Upton is a luxury not a need. WOuld rather spend the resources for pitching.
Muggi
Wow…in his FG chat, Cameron was just asked if an offer of Dom Brown, Jon Singleton, and Colvin would be a good offer from the Phils…Cameron said the D-Backs will be looking for something more like Brown, Hamels and a prospect.Upton is good and cheap, but I can’t see any team giving up that level of talent.
EDIT: LOL WOW Cameron REAAALY likes Upton…just said he’d trade King Felix to get him.
14 Rocks
Yeah, I just posted above that Cameron thinks it would take Hanson, Minor, Freeman AND Teheran plus another player from the Braves to get Upton. You are right ,no team would pay that kind of price.
azdsnd
Well of course he would trade Felix for Upton. Felix is already making $10MM+, and quickly rising. Upton is averaging a couple hundred thousand dollars over $10MM for the next five years.
If you wouldn’t trade Felix for Upton, you don’t understand contracts.
Corey
Giants should propose
Dan Runzler
Pablo Sandoval
Darren Ford
Zach Wheeler
and if that doesn’t get it done throw in Charlie Culbertson too.
This would give them 1 Major league regular, one major league lefty reliever, a speedy outfielder with pennant race experience, and a 19 year old pitching stud, and an Arizona Fall League “rising star” at 2nd base.
Muggi
That’d barely get you BJ, let alone Justin.
BK
What about an HJ?
Ferrariman
that gets you way more than BJ Upton. Wheeler or Sandoval alone could be enough for the elder Upton.
melonis_rex
Wheeler yes, Sandoval no.
Kris Noble
Can’t see any NL West team making a serious bid for Upton, would likely be 1.5 times the normal asking rate.
azdsnd
And Arizona laughs at yet another terrible MLBTR trade proposal.
wait_HOWmanyrings
how about gardner, romine, brackman, david phelps and if you need more give up joba
Muggi
lol no, a Yanks’ offer would start with Montero and Betances, and those two alone wouldn’t get it done.
wait_HOWmanyrings
how about gardner, romine, betances, brandon laird, and joba
Muggi
That’s still not remotely enough. Joba and Gardner do not have great value – Romine has some, but as a secondary not a centerpiece.
IMO it’s going to take two centerpiece-type guys, plus 2 second-tier guys. If I though of the Yanks, I’d say two of Montero/Betances/Hughes, plus two of Joba/Gardner/Romine/Laird/Banuelos.
I don’t think it’s worth it for the Yanks. Other teams are salivating because of the contract Upton has, so they’ll overpay in prospects. For the Yanks, that’s not so much of a concern. I see them overpaying Crawford before they give up the talent to get Upton – it just makes more sense for their business model.
YanksFanSince78
It’s absurd that you value Hughes the same as you do Montero or Betances. You’re just all over the place. I would not attempt to trade for Upton simply because it makes no sense to spend that much in prospects/players when the OF is already pretty good and the major ned is pitching. However, this seems more realistic…..
1 of Montero, Betances, Banuelos or Joba.
1 of Brackman, Nova, Noesi or Warren
2 of Laird, Adams/Joseph, Mesa, Phelps, Murphy or Heathcott
Romine isn’t going anywhere until the Yanks see what Montero can do @ C next year.
moonraker45
I’d take Montero, Brackman, Laird, Mesa. thanks
brian mcgahan
How do you put Joba in the same category as Montero but call someone absurd for putting Hughes in the same category as Montero? Really?
YanksFanSince78
Very easy. Hughes is an accomplished mlb pitcher not a prospect. Joba may not have had the same level of success as Hughes but he has succeeded at the mlb level and is a step above a prospect.
-Hughes is better than an elite prospect so > Betances, Banuelos, Montero
-Joba is a mlb pitcher w/ some mlb success but hasn’t reached what some consider to be his high celing but is still young @ 25. Therefore he’s a step above a prospect but because he has some questions his long term success is suspect. The same thing can be said for an “elite” prospect. They are likely to experience some success but their long term success is questionable. Therefor Joba = Montero, Banuelos, etc.
Anyone who values a young SP w/ front of rotation ability w/ major league success on the same level as a prospect w/ ZERO mlb experience is kidding themselves.
And again “d) Joba who despite the hate has something like a career 354 IP w/ 362 KO and a 3.77 ERA and 1.33 whip”. On almost any team other than the Yanks or the Sox, Joba would be seen in a different light. What 25 yo w/ that amount of success would be considered a failure?
Even as a starter: 43 starts, 221 IP, 206 KO, 101 BB, 4.18 ERA and 1.48 whip. Certainly not all-star fron of rotation stats but not bad for a 24 yo (since he wasn’t a starter in 2010) over his first and second years in the majors.
azdsnd
Gardner, Montero, Betances, Heathcott, and Joba.
YanksFanSince78
Dispite what ppl below have to say, IMO, that’s too much. That breaks down to..
a) Proven mlb OF’er that posted a 5.4 WAR in 2010
b) Two top 100 prospects (1 C and 1 SP)
c) A solid potential 4/5 starter w/ a great minor lge career.
d) Joba who despite the hate has something like a career 354 IP w/ 362 KO and a 3.77 ERA and 1.33 whip.
Don’t let the haters fool you. I agree however, that any deal for Upton would probably be centered around Montero and others.
sportsnut969
I would love to see the Indians jump into the mix with a offer of Carmona and Brantley or a offer of Brantley, Raffy Perez and Mitch Talbot or Justin Masterson.
As far a The Braves not being a interested party because they got Uggla, this I don’t understand they gave up trash for Uggla and Upton is locked up and is only 23 to boot and they have the pieces to make this deal without any negative impact to the team at all.
roberty
The reason is they acquired the right handed bat they needed, and Prado has been forced into left field. The Braves would love to upgrade at center, but their corner OF positions are filled unless Chip gets hurt and Prado moves to 3B.
T Morgan
I feel the same way on the Braves, I dont think personally that they will do it, but I wouldn’t count them out. Uggla is only there for one year, and more than likely Chipper as well. Then what are they going to do about RH hitting? They have the farm system to go after him, and still not break the bank. Not to mention a semi-surplus of major league ready pitchers. Through in one of those, and a good prospect like maybe Delgado or Viscaino, and then some other lower prospects (and by lower I just mean as in A-ball, they can be talented) In 2012, the Braves are going to need a RH bat unless they sign Uggs, so why not pick up the phone and make some sort of play.
wait_HOWmanyrings
hughes, benuelos, gary sanches, romine, brandon laird, romulo sanches and/ or albaladejo
Muggi
replace Romine with Montero and you’re in the neighborhood.
rfffr
Romine wouldn’t help the team like Montero because of the other Montero.
YanksFanSince78
So let’s see.
One 24 SP w/ mlb success already in Hughes.
Three guys who are top 5 org prospects and perhaps even top 50 prospects in 2011 in Montero, Sanchez and Banuelos. Not to mention 2 C and a Lefty SP.
A 3B prospect with 25 hr potential.
The other guys don’t really matter (Sanchez and Albaladejo).
You guys are the opposite of “crazy Yankee” fan who still feel Juan Miranda is an mlb prospect.
YanksFanSince78
You ppl are absurd.
DBacksFan1
daniel bard,jacoby ellsbury along with casey kelly for upton.
Muggi
They can get a better package than that, I’m sure.
Casey Herz
Trading Daniel Bard would be absolutely foolish on Theo Epstein’s part. I think can see Theo offering a package with Kalish, Kelly, Cameron, Doubront and possibly another high level prospect.
Prying Ellsbury and/or especially Bard from the Red Sox is going to take more than Justin Upton alone. I know people for some reason don’t hold Ellsbury in high regard at times (which is ridiculous in the first place), however, he represents one of the only true base stealing threats on the Red Sox; something Upton isn’t necessarily capable of filling.
Ferrariman
how often do guys like Upton become available? you could probably count them on one hand. The only other time a mega talent guy like this came in trade talks that i can recall was Lou Brock. Teams just don’t let these guys get away. it will take a pretty big haul and the dbacks need BP help, Bard would have to be in it.
MaineSox
That would probably be a sticking point if that were the case, because regardless of actual 1to1 value, I think Bard has more value to the Red Sox than Upton would, unless Upton alone can score more runs than Bards replacement gives up (which could be a lot with the way our relievers pitched last year).
azdsnd
Add Buchholz and replace Ellsbury with someone who isn’t a Boras client headed to arbitration. Like Rizzo, Doubront, Cecchini, or Ranaudo.
jwredsox
cecchini and ranaudo can’t be traded until a year after they were drafted
azdsnd
Awwww, poo. I guess Doubront.
BoSoXaddict
Guess who represents Ranaudo?
BoSoXaddict
Guess who represents Ranaudo?
fishfan4life
Get this done Beinfest. Upton and Stanton in the outfield already has me drooling.
elscorcho the marlin
then who would we have as a number two pitcher, and not to mention losing a future star in morrison.
fishfan4life
Morrison may be a future star but so is Upton. And I am skeptic about giving up Ricky, I won’t lie about that. But apparently Gavin Floyd is available so that may be a possibility to fill in the #2 spot in the rotation.
elscorcho the marlin
pitching is what the marlins need most right now. if we can get another starter, then i’d say do it.
azdsnd
If you get Upton, you give up Stanton. And a lot more.
Encarnacion's Parrot
If anyone traded Stanton for Upton, they’d be shot.
Jamme
Why would the marlins trade Stanton, even for Upton. That Stanton has some major power potential….
BrocNessMonster
And we’re talking about club without a ton of money to spent. Stanton is cheap!
Henry Castellanos
Upton is a luxury. No real reason to give up alot of players just to get an Upton, who just might regress like his bro. The Yanks should be spending their time kicking their tires on Gavin Floyd/John Danks. Now.
azdsnd
Using B.J. to judge Justin is stupid. It’s not just you, but everybody doing it.
DBacksFan1
give us figgins and king felix for upton,dbacks want a contact hitter we put figgins at third,trade away reynolds for some prospects,put allen at first and trade away ryal and/or parra for a decent left fielder and sign Andruw Jones for RF/Veteran presence..
ha
fishfan4life
Figgins’ stock has dropped since he was garbage last season. And I don’t see Felix, probably the best pitcher in the AL, being traded at all.
Yankeefan4life
There’s no way Felix is traded. Figgins and Felix is way too much for one player regardless of who it isl
marlinsfanatic
I think a Ricky Nolasco, Gaby Sanchez, Leo Nunez, and a prospect could net J-Up. Marlins would be sick in the OF.
elscorcho the marlin
who do you get to fill in the starting lineup?
azdsnd
No, it couldn’t.
Not. Even. Close.
wait_HOWmanyrings
according to mlb.com the dbacks want a closer and an outfielder
wickedkevin
Bard, Kalish, etc. Or Papelbon with most of his salary eaten I guess.
Aaron McGraw
To the Reds for Bailey, Alonso, Francisco, Sappelt, Hamilton
BrocNessMonster
Reminds me. I really think Homer Baily fulfills his top of the rotation starter potential this year.
Dylan
According to Ed Price, Phils offered Blanton, Kendrick, and Ibanez…lol. Can’t blame Rube for trying right?
azdsnd
Wow, Ruben Amaro. WOW.
BentoBox
WTF.
Dylan
Keep in mind, it was Ed Price.
BrocNessMonster
Has to be BS. No way Amaro thinks that proposal would be taken seriously.
ThinkBlue10
Imagine an outfield of Kemp, Ethier, and Upton.
Ferrariman
you can imagine it without Ethier and a rotation without billingsley as well.
YanksFanSince78
Seriously? You would suggest Upton is worth Ethier and Billingsley? Forget about the fact that they are both excellent, proven mlb players for a second. I assume the purpose of the Dbacks trading Upton is to get some parts they need and salary relief. Ethier is set to earn $9.5 mil in 2011 and Bills made about $4 mil and has 2 more years of arbitration left. Upton was set to earn less than that in 2011 and 2012 combined. Plus, both Ethier and Bills will be FA by end of 2012 (est). I would think they would want multiple cost controlled prospects/mlb players they can squeeze 3-4 years of under market value out of.
Ferrariman
i do, yes. is that Upton’s actual value? no, probably not. but it is if a division rival wants to pry him loose. if the dodgers were in the AL or in a different division, things would be different in this regard.
BrocNessMonster
I’ma Dodger fan, and like the players you’re talking about. Don’t wanna see them go. But I don’t think that’s enough. 2 years of Dre and 2 years of Bills < 5 years of Upton.
JHicks
Tigers- Trade Ryan Perry, Brennan Boesch, Andy Oliver, & PTBNL for Upton… then sign Carl Crawford to complete the best OF in the AL!
InLeylandWeTrust
That would be highway robbery lol.
Ferrariman
how about thistigers-trade Jacob Turner, Ryan Perry, And Andy Oliver. Then maybe the dbacks keep talking for longer than 30 seconds.
DD
No way the Marlins trade Morrison or Stanton, too much potential…BOTH were in the top 10 prospects in MLB last spring. In just a short while…Stanton > Upton in pretty much every way
Nolasco + Nunez = too much salary intake for AZ
Billy
Morrison was never close to being a top 10 prospect
Ferrariman
first of all, Upton has more potential in his left foot than Morrison does in his full body of work. second, a deal would absolutely require atleast Morrison+probably Matt Dominguez among others. third, morrison was never a top-10 prospect.
Dylan
Morrison topped at #18 I think….
elscorcho the marlin
other than morrison not being a top 10 prospect, i would not trade them either. they are too valuable to the marlins.
DBacksFan1
maybe towers should give up on the upton talks. here’s how i picture the dbacks for next season. LF leave allen,keep reynolds and move him to first,rusty ryal i see with alot of potential so move him to third giving him a shot to play everyday,drew and johnson were great last season. chris young im looking for him to improve from his bounce-back season,upton will also have a major bounce-back season. Towers needs to concentrate on the BULLPEN,focus our few millions we have to spend on the bullpen this season,if it doesnt workout trade upton,drew,reynolds by next season and start rebuilding.
Ferrariman
Shelby Miller+Adron Chambers(look this guy up, tearing it up in AFL and had very strong 2010)+Allen Craig or Jon Jay+our closer waiting( one of Jason Motte or Eduardo Sanchez). fills 4 holes(2 immediately, 1 sometime this season, 1 sort of longterm) for the dbacks. any takers?
Dermick
I really dont like the idea of giving up Miller, but if its for the 23 year old Upton, I like it
Jayson
Upton to the Mariners in exchange for Michael Pineda, Michael Saunders, David Aardsma, Mangini/Halman/Liddi
CrustyJuggler
If the M’s could swing a deal with Pineda, Saunders and Aardsma as the main pieces, they’d do it in a heartbeat. Doubt they could keep Smoak AND Ackley out of the deal though.
By the way.. Ackley has an OPS of almost 1.400 in the AFL. Yeah.. he’ll be Seattle’s starting 2B on Opening Day.
Jayson
Word, just wishful thinking. If they could do it without Ackley or Smoak that would be awesome, but if not I wouldn’t do it.
And he’s killllin it, I like that he’s showing some power now too.
Jamme
Hope AZ accepts that trade, then minutes before signing the contract, the Yankees swoop in and steal the deal away… you know just out of spite and general principles alone.
fitz
I want the Sox to trade for Upton so bad. Have loved the kid since he was drafted first overall. I know I’d probably cringe if I was a fan of any non-big market team if the Sox got him but please let this happen.
marlinsfanatic
Gaby sanchez, ricky nolasco, kyle skipworth, and brad hand. … i think its not that bad for dbacks
Adam L
“Not that bad” doesn’t get you Justin Upton. Any team is going to have to ridiculously overpay for the Diamondbacks to even consider it.
Figure Mike Stanton + Josh Johnson just to start with…
cubfan4life
Youre right Stanton or Morrison would have to be in the deal. Perhaps Morrison, Sanchez, Nolasco, and 2 others would get it done. However dont be surprised if other teams with solid pieces get in on the talks. TB, Baltimore, Chicago and Detroit could all make pretty attractive packages if they wanted to.
cubfan4life
Youre right Stanton or Morrison would have to be in the deal. Perhaps Morrison, Sanchez, Nolasco, and 2 others would get it done. However dont be surprised if other teams with solid pieces get in on the talks. TB, Baltimore, Chicago and Detroit could all make pretty attractive packages if they wanted to.
Adam L
“Not that bad” doesn’t get you Justin Upton. Any team is going to have to ridiculously overpay for the Diamondbacks to even consider it.
Figure Mike Stanton + Josh Johnson just to start with…
Andres322
Anqels could probaly offer peter bourjos jorden walden trevor reckling chris petit mark trumbo and kevin jepsen and then in the outfeild they will have cf justin upton lf carl crawford if he siqns wit the anqels and in rf torii hunter that would be the best outfiels in baseball
Ferrariman
“angels could offer bourjos, walden, and jepsen”
and they could get rejected as well.
BrocNessMonster
Right. No Trout = No Upton.
vinnieg
Montero, Joba, Nova, Adams, Heathcott/ Brackman
You bring in Upton you dont need Monteros bat. You can focus on defense with Romine. Montero could play first for Arizona with Miguel Montero in the backstop.
Joba does not have a ton of value because hes hitting arbitration. But they can finally have a reliable guy in the pen.
In the last few years ive seen what Arizona likes when trading. They like MLB experienced players who they can control for awhile. IE Kennedy and Jackson. I think Nova has no future in the Yankees rotation. Maybe the bullpen.
Adams could hit .300 in the majors with Cano there hes expendable. He has a great deal of value. Kelly Johnson could go back to RF and they could fit him in.
I said either Heathcott or Brackman. But after evaluating this trade I think its more like a Banuelos or Betances. I personally like Betances more than Banuelos. Because we will have Lee and Sabathia we should hold onto the righty.
So i think Montero, Banuelos, Joba, Nova, Adams will get it done
I know you think that package is too much but you gotta understand Upton is younger that most teams prospects. He has a great contract for the next 5 years. 10 mil a year for a 30.30 .300 player is gold. I really cant think of many hitters with more value than he does.
wait_HOWmanyrings
how bout replace montero with romine, and add gardner and brackman
YanksFanSince78
How about you add Drew and Hudson?
Jamme
How about not trying to sign every super star that comes available? The yankees seem like they really want to toe the line with their “financial flexibility” claim and getting JUp is going to through a wrench in that. Just shore up the pitching and ride with the hitters they got. Gardner, Swisher, and Grandy are already one of the top OF crew in the AL.
tripperdimauro
how can you call joba a reliable reliever when the yankees didnt have the confidence in him to bridge their starters to mo? incredible faith. he was no doubt unbelieveable in his first year as a set up but both him and jacoby took huge steps back this year. jacobys was due to injury unfortunately and his toughness is in question, jobs skills are their just needs retuning
MaineSox
I just have to throw this out there:
In 2009
Player A: .300 average – .366 OBP – 84 runs scored – 158 hits – 55 walks – 137 Strike outs
Player B: .301 average – .355 OBP – 94 runs scored – 188 hits – 49 walks – 74 Strike outs
The big difference between the two players (besides strike outs) is: Player A hit 26 home runs while Player B hit 8; but Player B had 70 stolen bases to Player A’s 20. Anyone care to guess who the two players are?
I’ll just tell you: Player A is J. Upton and player B is J. Ellsbury. The real difference is 1) age and 2) trading elite speed for decent power.
MLB_in_the_Know
Cherry pick stats much?
Ferrariman
post us their OPS and slugging percents away from their home ballpark while your cherrypicking please.
MaineSox
I guess I thought it would be self evident that Upton’s slugging and therefore OPS would be higher given that he hit 20 more HR’s but yes Uptons SLG is .532 to Ellsbury’s .415 but that really is ALL from the HR’s as Ells had 3 fewer doubles and 3 more triples.
As for their Home/away splits the big difference for Ells is SLG (.443 home to .393 away) and doubles (20 home and 7 away, hence the drop in SLG%) while Upton’s average dropped 10 points away (not a huge deal) while his Runs and RBI both dropped by a third and his walks are cut in half while his strike outs go up when he is away from his home park. Both of their OPS’ drop by 60 points away from their home parks.
It kinda sounds like you want to talk about all of the 17 ways they measure someones power when I already recognized the fact that Ells has no power and Upton does. It still seems to come down to age and speed vs. power (or SLG% if it makes you feel better)
Ferrariman
ok here are their tools the way i see it
both play above average defense
Upton has astronomically higher Power potential
Ellsbury has 60sb+ potential, Upton has about 30sb+ potential
both might be perennail .300 hitters.
Upton has the higher upside
Upotn isn’t a boras client
Upton has a team friendly client
Upton isn’t coming off an injury plagued season
Upton…well..you get the point. Their two completely different players. this is like comparing Lou Brock to Willie McCovey
MaineSox
Read what you just wrote though, 2/3 of what you just posted has nothing to do with their skills sets which was the only thing I was talking about and the other third you are basically repeating what I said which is that Upton has much better power and Ellsbury has much better speed.
I should have made it clear that I wasn’t suggesting the value was equal only that the skills were very similar just with a trade off of speed and power, and to say that Upton has 30+ stolen base potential may end up being correct but it is hard to say that at this point since he has 41 total in his career and the most he has stolen in a year is 20, I’m not saying you’re wrong only that you can’t say that for sure.
Ferrariman
“read what you just wrote, 2/3 doesn’t have to do with skill set and blah blah blah”
it still affects the trade value. 1 year of great player doesn’t equal 4 years of a good player(these aren’t actual people i’m referring to, just an arbitrary statement to get the point across).
MaineSox
Your not getting what I’m saying, I don’t really know how to say it any more clearly. I agree that Uptons trade value is higher, that’s not what I’m saying, I’m saying that he is very similar skill wise and therefor being over hyped a bit by some. I’m not saying that he isn’t a good, even great player but the only thing that makes his value more than Ellsbury’s is the age and years of control. People talk all the time about Ellsbury being overrated while these same people seem to think a guy with almost the same skillset only trade speed for pop, is the second coming of Christ himself. All I’m saying is people need to step back and think for a minute, the skills this guy brings to a team aren’t worth emptying your farm system for whether it is for 1 year or 5 years, his value is high but he isn’t going to net you all 10 of a teams top 10 prospects as some seem to think on here.
Jamme
Completely understand what your saying… unfortunately everyone drools over HRs and SLG%, much more so than speed.
Jack
Huge Red Sox fan here, I believe that this package could get it done:
SP Casey Kelley
RP Felix Doubront
OF Josh Reddick
1B Lars Anderson
3B Kolbrin Vitek
SP Drake Britton
For Justin Upton
What do you guys think? This package could also work for Adrian Gonzalez, could it not?
Or……
SP Casey Kelley
RP Felix Doubront
OF Josh Reddick
1B Lars Anderson
3B Kolbrin Vitek
SP Drake Britton
SS Yamiaco Navarro/Marco Scutaro
For Justin Upton, Stephen Drew
Let me know what you guys think and some suggestions.
DunkinDonuts
“SP Casey Kelley
RP Felix Doubront
OF Josh Reddick
1B Lars Anderson
3B Kolbrin Vitek
SP Drake Britton
For Justin Upton
What do you guys think? This package could also work for Adrian Gonzalez, could it not?”
*****
If that package is going to San Diego, they’d better send back some Vaseline along with the Gonzalez rental to help Theo weather the transaction.
Jack
If they acquire A-Gonz they will certainly extend him. You’d think that would be a requirement of Theo to get him signed. And hey, that may be too much for him, however they would be going to San Diego. We could forget about them from there.
ilikebaseball
I don’t believe Vitek can be traded yet. And D’Backs might want Kalish over Reddick. Oh, and Theo might cry. I assume Kelly is the centerpiece here and I wonder if the D’Backs would want someone more major league ready.
BillB325
Yeah sorry to Diamondback fans, but I just saw that someone said Colby Rasmus is not even close to Upton. He has the tools but Rasmus has been almost as successful and is much cheaper. So it kinda seems that diamondback fans think that Upton is just god. There are many outfielders better than him.
dirtydez
Yeah i’m a realistic D-Back fan and think it’s absurd that people think he’s a future HOFer. Nobody will empty their farm systems for him like some are saying. If Towers can pull a miracle and get Greinke some how you have to pull the trigger. We need a #1 pitcher before Hudson.
Joe
Why trade 5 years of cost controlled potential superstar talent for two years of Greinke?
He will probably be lost to free agency anyways and I dont see the DBacks being contenders for the next to years anyways.
If Upton is moved, it needs to be for cost-controlled talent and potential high upside prospects.
Joe
Why trade 5 years of cost controlled potential superstar talent for two years of Greinke?
He will probably be lost to free agency anyways and I dont see the DBacks being contenders for the next to years anyways.
If Upton is moved, it needs to be for cost-controlled talent and potential high upside prospects.
dirtydez
”So it kinda seems that diamondback fans think that Upton is just god.”
I know it’s absurd. As a realistic D-Back fan i know that’s not the case. Nobody is gonna empty their farm system for him. If Towers can somehow pull a miracle and get Greinke he has to pull the trigger.
FamiliaTerritory
D-Backs get:
1B/OF Lucas Duda
SP Jeurys Familia (or Jenrry Mejia)
OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis
SP James Fuller
RP Jose De La Torre
RP Bobby Parnell
Mets get:
OF Justin Upton
Just an idea I’m throwing out there.
renegade
So the D-Backs get garbage for Justin Upton?
FamiliaTerritory
Spoken like someone who has no clue what he’s talking about. I bet you never even heard of half the people I mentioned.
-Duda had a huge year this season in the minors (AA & AAA) and was named Bisons MVP.
-Familia really struggled but his strikeouts continued to rise.
-Nieuwenhuis performed well in AA and struggled in AAA. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if he caught fire out the gate in AAA next season.
-Fuller & De La Torre did a great job this season.
Fuller: 11-5, 2.19 ERA, 1.188 WHIP, 8.5 SO/9, 2.6 BB/9, 0.2 HR/9…only thing he needs to do is cut back on the hits a bit (8.1 H/9)
De La Torre: 51 appearances, 3-2, 2.69 ERA, 1.223 WHIP, 10.2 SO/9, 4.4 BB/9, 6.7 H/9…could cut back on the hits and walks a bit but the rest is impressive.
-Parnell was so-so but it wouldn’t surprise me if he turned into a valuable setup man/closer in the near future….especially with his stuff.
Garbage? Think again.
kimofromkauai
It is my opinion that Uptons value is decreased due to his long term contract not enhanced and that if Arizona truly wants top notch prospects they will have to put some money into the deal to compensate for the long term uncertainty that Uptons contract creates. We have seen before that the real currency now in baseball appears to be pre arbitration MLB talent and payroll flexibility. In fact, financial flexibility was cited by the Diamondbacks in the Haren deal as justification.
GrizzlyBeer
please dude, his contract is cheap
Jamme
It balloons to 9.5 mil in 2013 and 14 mil thereafter for 2014 and 2015. Not that cheap
GrizzlyBeer
“McAdam notes that Arizona is requesting three players from the big-league roster as part of the package, which McAdam calls “prohibitive.””
so who are they asking for? Bard, Ellsbury, Bucholz? So if AZ drops Els and Bucholz and asks for Kalish,Kelly and Rizzo does a deal get done?
BoSoxSam
I’d say yes.
sam_lammert
how about colby rasmus, skip shumaker, jon jay, and a prospect for chris young and justin uptin?
jdub220
Uh, no. That isn’t even enough to get Upton, let alone Young. Also, Schumaker sucks.
jdub220
And before I get attacked by Cards fans telling me how awesome Rasmus is… Rasmus only outperformed Upton by .4 WAR last year, in what was considered a down year for Upton. And the only reason there was a .4 WAR difference is because of the positional adjustment, and Rasmus wouldn’t play center if he was traded to AZ.
Plus, you get five years of Upton, and only four of Rasmus.
jdub220
Uh, no. That isn’t even enough to get Upton, let alone Young. Also, Schumaker sucks.
YanksFanSince78
You know what kind of player Just Up is? The kind of player teams drool over on draft day if they hold a top 3 pick. The kind of player GMs who are dangling a veteran superstar covet in any talks w/ the team he plays for. The kind of player you “x” days off of your calendar for as he approaches FA.
You know the kind of player he isn’t? The kind of player you want to trade for 2 or 3 years into his career when he’s had one amazingly good year sandwhiched in between 2 “meh” type years, is owed about $50 mil and his GM is dangling him on the trade block and kicks out a comment like “[Upton] would be a tough guy to move. But you always seek out the information on what teams will do because you never know if, to get one player, a team will grossly overpay.”
Players like Upton, who are immensly talented and have shown a glimmer of what may come but then have a regression (even if it’s of the 2010 variety) are dangerous waters to swim in. It can literally be the deal that dramaticaly turns your franchize around or sets your franchize back.
YanksFanSince78
And make no mistake about it. The Yanks have tons of money but don’t have as much payroll felixbility and need to pick and choose wisely who they keep and who they trade inorder to improve the team (thru talent and youth/athletic infusion) and to STAY AWAY from the payroll ballooning into the $230+ mil range which is a place I don’t think the Bosses’ kids want to go. That means keeping the right C to succeed Posada so that they’re not waiting for 2012 when McCann or Molina might become FA. That means keeping the right SP to replace Pettite when he retires, or AJ when his contract expires or to offset the contract and loss of skill for CC and possibly Lee (if he signs) over the next 5 years so they won’t have to wait and pray for Wainright or Lincecum to become FA in 2 years. They have to start grooming the eventual replacement for Jeter (Nunez, Culver, ???) so that signing Tulo, or HanRam are viewed as luxuries and not desperate needs. Never in their history has it become important for the Yanks to adeptly balance the acquisition of mlb players w/ the drafting, developing and retention and use of farm products.
For ever Yankee fan drooling over the possibility of the Yanks acquiring a guy like Just Up you have to also weigh the cost of trading potential cost controled, high upside replacements for the aging stars we have who won’t be w/ us in the next few years vs what it will cost to go out and acquire replacements thru FA. We truly are as obnoxious as others see us if we spend a Montero, Bentances and others to acquire another OF, although a great one, with a current OF of Gardner, Grandy and Swisher. Sure, Just Up is better than each of those guys but how many more games is Just Up going to win for use in replace of Swisher (if healthy and productive) vs the # of wins a Montero, Betances, Banuelos can provide if they reach their potential and give us all-star performance @ lge minimum which will allow us to spend money elsewhere and still stay in our happy zone of a $200 mil payroll?
Joslen
Dee Gordon, Jonathan Broxton, Jerry Sands, Chris Withrow, Trayvon Robinson for Justin Upton
Lars Chunks
Upton has the potential to be BETTER than Carl Crawford, and at a fraction of the price while in his prime. People don’t like that he strikes out a lot and has a lower average, but even in his down year his OPS was exactly the same as Crawford’s last season. We’re talking about a guy who’s capable of hitting 30 homers, 90 rbi, 100 runs, 40 steals, and playing very good defense.
KenJr1918
If the cost for Upton is Ellsbury, Bard and Doubront, Theo should pull the trigger now. Upton would take over for Ellsbury, so net gain in the OF. While Doubront looked very good in his time with the big club, the Sox rotation is pretty much set for the foreseeable future. Bard would be the biggest loss to the club in terms of immediate need. He is a terrific set up man, but we have no idea how good of a closer he would be. Relievers are so up and down, I wouldn’t want to see the Sox lose out on Upton over one. Upton would give the Sox a young, cost controlled, middle of the order hitter. That cannot be understated.
chreeschan
“If the cost for Upton is Ellsbury, Bard and Doubront, Theo should pull the trigger now.”
It’s not.
KenJr1918
I didn’t say it was, I was commenting on idea put forth by Sean McAdam in the linked article.
KenJr1918
I didn’t say it was, I was commenting on idea put forth by Sean McAdam in the linked article.
RedSoxDynasty
substitute Ells and Bard for Kelly and Kalish and sox do the deal, otherwise no way!
RedSoxDynasty
substitute Ells and Bard for Kelly and Kalish and sox do the deal, otherwise no way!
renegade
Kyle Drabek, Travis D’Arnaud and Anthony Gose.
renegade
Kyle Drabek, Travis D’Arnaud and Anthony Gose.
slr5607
I was thinking a lot about why the D Backs would even be interested in trading Upton. He is part of the solution, not the problem. I am a Giants fan, so please, trade him by all means, but is that really the best move for Arizona? They have a lot of holes and a lot of younger players that are talented…just not as talented as Upton. Of course guys like Chris Young, Mark Reynolds, and Brandon Allen will get the same return that Upton would, but trading all of them will give them a good core of young guys still in the line-up like Stephen Drew, Justin Upton and that young Starting Pitching.
If the goal is to get better, wouldn’t you trade for the best players, not just the most attractive prospect package? I know if someone is going to throw Logan Morrison, Nolasco and more, you probably take it because Morrison should be a stud, but what about trading for younger, established guys instead?
What about a Zack Grenke and Joaquim Soria for Justin Upton trade?
I still think there would be someon out there willing to give a quality prospect for Reynolds, Young and possibly a swap for a quality bullpen are for a guy like Allen. If they could make quality moves with those 3 and add 3 or 4 guys who fit what they wanted, they would already have their 3 and 4 hitters to build around in Drew and Upton.
The fact is, Upton is too good and too young to just go out and trade for people you would hope to be good and young and cheaper.
Joe
I keep hearing about Greinke for Upton deals, and I have to respectfully disagree. The only way Upton would be traded is for cost controlled cheap talent and to restock the farm. Trading Upton for a semi-expensive starter and closer (of course they are both amazing) would just make the situation worse. Why trade a cost controlled potential superstar under contract until 2015 for two players that they more than likely will lose to free agency anyways.
This would be so much like the Dan Haren trade, which crippled the franchise. Imagine their amazing and cost-controlled lineup had they still had Carlos Gonzalez, Chris Carter, Brett Anderson and Dana Evelend to go with Justin Upton, Stephen Drew, Mark Reynolds, Chris Young, Miguel Montero, Dan Hudson, and Ian Kennedy.
Teams need to have faith in their farm and allow them a chance to perform. Trading Upton for a deal similar to the Dan Haren/Mark Teixeira trade would be understandable. However, trading Upton for something like Greinke would just make no sense.
The D’backs are the ones in the driver’s seat here. There is no reason to take a deal that doesn’t blow them away. They have no need to trade Upton.
slr5607
I was thinking a lot about why the D Backs would even be interested in trading Upton. He is part of the solution, not the problem. I am a Giants fan, so please, trade him by all means, but is that really the best move for Arizona? They have a lot of holes and a lot of younger players that are talented…just not as talented as Upton. Of course guys like Chris Young, Mark Reynolds, and Brandon Allen will get the same return that Upton would, but trading all of them will give them a good core of young guys still in the line-up like Stephen Drew, Justin Upton and that young Starting Pitching.
If the goal is to get better, wouldn’t you trade for the best players, not just the most attractive prospect package? I know if someone is going to throw Logan Morrison, Nolasco and more, you probably take it because Morrison should be a stud, but what about trading for younger, established guys instead?
What about a Zack Grenke and Joaquim Soria for Justin Upton trade?
I still think there would be someon out there willing to give a quality prospect for Reynolds, Young and possibly a swap for a quality bullpen are for a guy like Allen. If they could make quality moves with those 3 and add 3 or 4 guys who fit what they wanted, they would already have their 3 and 4 hitters to build around in Drew and Upton.
The fact is, Upton is too good and too young to just go out and trade for people you would hope to be good and young and cheaper.
Dennis
The kid is 23, hasn’t done squat yet and the D-Backs want 4-5 players for him? Ridiculous.
Dennis
The kid is 23, hasn’t done squat yet and the D-Backs want 4-5 players for him? Ridiculous.
tripperdimauro
what about the red sox including andrew miller in a deal, if the sox saw promise in a former 6th overall pick, others could
ellsbury
lowrie
doubront
kelly
rizzo
miller
for
upton
reynolds
this cripples the sox lefties for the bullpen but they could still go after downs
the dbacks would get rid of all their strike out problems and reynolds is due a decent raise in arbatration i believe