Put an affordable 23-year-old with superstar potential on the trade market and you're going to hear some juicy rumors. We found out yesterday that the Diamondbacks are prepared to deal Justin Upton even if the move isn't popular with the team's fan base. The Blue Jays are showing strong interest in the right fielder and the Mariners, Marlins, Orioles and Red Sox are among the other interested teams. Here are today's rumors, with more to come throughout the day:
- The Athletics, Indians, Royals and Tigers are the four clubs on Upton's no-trade list, tweets FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal. Upton can be dealt to any of the other 25 teams without his approval.
- At least 15 teams approached the D’Backs about Upton at the GM Meetings and five of those clubs wanted to push talks further along, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, who notes that the Yankees were not one of the five clubs in hot pursuit of the outfielder.
- Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald says the Red Sox need to deal for Upton and Dan Bickley of the Arizona Republic says it would be a mistake for the D'Backs to trade him.
Smart move by the D’Backs by making Upton available. Now you have half the league trying to outbid each other to see who can overpay for Upton the most.
My theory is that they’re just throwing a juicy target out there to build a list of “potentially available” players.
Say Team Purple makes an initial offer of players X, Y, and Z for Upton. A few days go by, and the deal doesn’t happen. But the D’Backs go back to Team Purple and say, “Hey, sorry it didn’t work out with Justin. But if you’re looking for 3B options, we’ve got Reynolds available, and we could do that for players X and Z…”
Multiply that out by the 15 teams that made initial inquiries, and they’ve got a pretty sweet list of “available” players for future trades…
Thing is, I don’t think there will be an “overpay”.
Upton is a great player and warrants a haul, but I’ll be very surprised if the D’backs get back a haul + a free diamond.
Ultimately, if the D’backs can get back players who make them a better side AND reduce payroll, then they will have succeeded from the trade. I hope this machismo nonsense about “winning the trade” doesn’t hurt them.
there will be an overpayment or there wont be a trade – its that simple.
It’s never that simple. Upton wasn’t floated for no reason.
And really, if the D’backs would refuse the chance to have a better team at a cheaper price JUST because they weren’t “overpaid”? Then they are nuts. It makes no sense.
You’re statement makes no sense. If the trade resulted in them having a better team then they would have been overpaid.
Let’s go marlins get this done I’m tired of waiting haha
in all honesty, I actually hope the marlins get him.. maybe it would make up for the uggla return
If Upton could produce like he did in 09 it would be great. His production would be way higher than what bonifacio can do. Obviously
And then in a couple of years when Upton becomes expensive we can go thru this whole endeavor again.
They’ll just trade him for a middle relieve and a super utility type !
The beauty of Upton is that he signed an extension relatively quickly after making his debut instead of going through the arbitration process, and as a result is locked up through 2015 at a very reasonable price.
Dave Cameron of USS Mariner and Fangraphs found that Upton will be “worth” 50M more than he will make, even if he performs as he did in 2010 for the life of his contract. The point is that he’s likely to improve exponentially, but even if he doesn’t, he’s a great value.
I would love to see Upton in a Blue Jays uniform in 2011, but I hope that the Jays don’t bid so much that they are the victims of the en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winners_curse
I would love to see Upton in a Blue Jays uniform next year, but I hope that they don’t bid so much that they become victims of the winner’s curse.
Cliff Lee who?
Really hope White Sox make run. However, if they don’t have enough, because their farm system is empty, I hope the A’s or Jays get him. Both teams definitely have the prospects, and a guy like Upton can make them a serious AL threat.
depends what they give up.. if you end up overpaying for Upton, it could set you back. .. I’m fearful of this
I don’t think you really can give up too much for Upton. Yes, Drabek and Snider would be overkill, but the guy is 23 and signed through 2015 on a team-friendly contract, so the value he adds is incredible. That being said, it will take at least Snider, Stewart, Gose and Cecil from the Jays and Carter, Taylor and probably either Cahill or Gio from the A’s to get the conversation started.
to me personally, if you give up Snider, Cecil, Stewart in a trade for Upton. Thats a huge win for the Dbacks.
Snider+Stewart+Gose+Cecil?
Are you high?
Its Justin Freakin’ Upton. He’s a 4 WAR player in a down year at TWENTY THREE YEARS OLD! He’s worth a TON. If you don’t want to give up that much, the D’backs would be perfectly happy in keeping him.
Upton is excellent, but the Jays would regress if they made that kind of move. I don’t think Upton’s value to the team would exceed that of Snider + Cecil combined, and the Jays’ farm would be depleted of two of its best trade chips.
The Jays are stacked with pitchers, not premium outfielders, so there’s little point in trading away Snider anyhow. Start with Cecil/Drabek + one of the farm’s talented catchers, and go from there.
Cecil and Snider are both very young and Cecil has proven he can pitch in the big and AL East. He is pretty much a #3/4 starter right now with the upside of 2. Snider has great potential, he could become a 40 hr hitter. He was on pace for 25 this season and that’s with the massive misuse of Snider by Cito. Stewart is pretty much major league ready and has potential to become a #2 and Gose ceiling is just insane. He could bust and become a utility or borderline starter with elite speed and defense or he could become a Crawford type player. He is also ranked as Jays 3rd best prospect and to me that’s too much.
Trading Snider + Cecil ++ for Upton does not make the team any better, it could make it worse actually. Snider seems primed to break out next year and Cecil has been improving. I’d give up Snider + Stewart + Alvarez/Jenkins + Thames/Marisnick or Snider + Marcum + Jenkins.
Hence the D’Backs saying, “You either overpay or you don’t get him. We want to win this trade.”
A Snider/Drabek/Gose/Cecil package is actually closer to what they’re looking for. They said they want three guys who can step into their immediate 2011 lineup, plus a top prospect or two.
They’re not going to give him up in a trade that works for both sides. They’re going to give him up only if they hands down raid the other team’s young talent.
You’re right, the Jays would be crazy to part with a package like the ones being mentioned, but that’s the point. That’s what the D’Backs want. Otherwise they’ll hold onto Upton and be pleased to build around one of the best young outfielders in the game.
4 WAR player in a down year?
2008 – 417 PA’s – 0.5 WAR
2009 – 588 PA’s – 4.6 WAR
2010 – 571 PA’s – 3.1 WAR
I see exactly one 4 WAR season. He’s got a career wOBA of 356 / wRC+15. He hasn’t stayed healthy yet, hasn’t even played in 140 games in a single season to date. Given his age those are tremendous marks. However, he is not without blemish or concern.
How about we look at a young CF’er … not as young as Upton when he broke in, but still a huge impact player:
2004 – 159 PA’s – 1.1 WAR (pro-rated that would be 5-6 WAR season)
2005 – 706 PA’s – 5.4 WAR
2006 – 751 PA’s – 7.3 WAR
Those years covered ages 22-24. He went on to have huge 2007 and 2008 seasons as well (5.7 and 7.1 WAR) but has been worthless over the past 2 years due to injury (1.9 WAR and -0.3 WAR).
The cautionary tale? Even great, young players fizzle out from time to time. Who would have guessed that Sizemore, with his team friendly contract, would be a drain on the Indians over the past 2 years? And Sizemore was the superior player, by a large margin, compared to Upton at this stage of their careers.
Upton is a tremendous talent but we aren’t talking about Albert Pujols here. If he was a year or two older we would describe him as a solid player who signed a very team friendly contract. However, everyone is going nuts over the guy because they are placing way too value on his age. And while his age is important, and his accomplishments to date for his age are significant, let’s not get too crazy here.
I think an offer with 2 top 20 prospects should be enough to get it done. This idea of taking 3 top 30 prospects + another prospect + a major league player is sheer lunacy IMO.
I like this post.
Of course you can give up too much for Upon. If he doesn’t resume his 2009 form then 4 or 5 prospects for a .250/.360 hitter with 20 hrs/15 SB is way too much to pay. You can get that production from others at a fraction of the prospect cost. Any team trading for Upton is doing so hoping he has more years like 2009 rather than ones like 2008 or 2010.
Please explain how $10 million a year for 5 years is a team friendly contract for someone who has yet to have a healthy season? Potential is one thing but how many teams are itching to give out 50mil garunteed for potential. I really feel bad for whatever team gets fleeced into trading for him
Please explain how $10 million a year for 5 years is a team friendly contract for someone who has yet to have a healthy season? Potential is one thing but how many teams are itching to give out 50mil garunteed for potential. I really feel bad for whatever team gets fleeced into trading for him
A’s are on his no-trade list.
Just flipping trade him already.
I know I’ve been spending too much time checking back here to see whether something has happened.
It’s always gonna take a while for Kevin Towers to trade a star player….He’s waiting for the best deal right now…
I imagine that any team in serious negotiations wants to get this over with quickly. That would allow whoever trades for him time to fill the holes they created through FA or other trades.
Thank you for the commentary, Napoleon Dynamite.
swing and a miss.
I can definitely see the Mariners, Blue Jays, and Red Sox being the strongest suited teams for him. The Mariners especially owe it to their fan base.
If Upton reaches his potential then it’s very difficult to overpay for him. That’s going to be the deciding factor in who wins a potential trade I think.
Just Up has incredible talent but will he become the next Barry Bonds circa (1990’s version) or the next Alex Rios? A good player but not elite?
Rios’ 3rd year- .297/.354 w/ 24 hrs, 7 trips, 43 dbls and 17 SB in his 3rd season.
Yanksfan, listen… I like you, you have great posts and a refreshing insight… but we don’t talk about Rios in these parts okay? lol
Hahaha….too soon?
it was a bitter break up
Rios was 26 years old in that 3rd year. Upton was 21 when he put up a .900 OPS.
So 5 teams want to take it further huh? Blue Jays, Mariners, Marlins, Red Sox and Rockies?
They’re pulling almost a Roy Halladay with this (except Roy Halladay is…Roy Halladay). They’re getting all these offers and finally waiting for the most over priced one and will take it.
i think it could be argued that upton’s TRADE VALUE is equal to or greater than halladay’s was. not saying he’s as good, but he’s young, under contract for longer and cheaper than halladay, and they don’t have to trade him. the jays got the phils #2, #3, #4 prospect for halladay and i think az can expect a similar return.
2, 3, 4 in the Jays system is McGuire (who can’t be moved, just drafted) Gose, & D’arnaud…. 5, is stewart.
Going to be a huge mistake for whoever makes that trade…glad the Mets aren’t involved…(sorry to bring them up haha)
Why would it be a mistake exactly? .. Considering the Jays got Taylor back from the Phils, I can safely say that our 2,3,4 is more well rounded then theres from 2009.
Talking about if a team trades their 2,3,4 for Upton you know
Oh i thought you meant huge mistake for the dbacks. right on. keep on truckin
Haha, yeah trading him is a great idea for them actually
Oh i thought you meant huge mistake for the dbacks. right on. keep on truckin
that was 2, 3, 4 in a top 5 farm system. jays system is good, but i don’t know that it’s top 5, maybe 7-9. not a big difference but imo it would take drabek, d’arnaud, gose and one more who can make az’s opening day roster in 2011. kind of funny that that’s basically what they got for halladay. drabek, d’arnaud, and taylor who was flipped for wallace who was flipped for gose.
Lars Anderson + Jacoby Ellsbury + Ryan Kalish + 1 year left of Jonathan Papelbon…. That should get it done for Justin Upton.
Lars Anderson hasn’t distinguished himself as an everyday mlb star caliber prospect.
Ryan Kalish (see above)
Ellsbury is a good, could be great player IMO but he has trouble staying healthy and is in his arb years.
Paps is a FA next year and the Dbacks don’t need a pricey closer until they have meaningful games that need to be saved.
Even though I’m not sold on Kelly I can’t see a trade being done with the Sox that doesn’t involve him and Raymond Fuentes plus others.
Ellsbury has trouble staying healthy? He breaks his ribs one season and suddenly he’s the guy who’s never healthy. Come on, we’re not talking about Marian Gaborik here (apologies for the hockey reference), we’re talking about broken ribs. Have you ever broken ribs? I have, and let me tell you they hurt like a motherf’er. Think about this. It hurts when you breathe, it hurts to sleep on your side, it hurts to laugh, it hurt to cough, and it hurts to sneeze. And you expect the kid to play baseball? I’m not saying the Sox should trade Ellsbury (unless the right deal comes along), I’m just saying his trade value is probably higher than you think it is.
I’m not saying rib injuries aren’t difficult. In fact I’m saying rib injuries can linger and can easily be reinjured, especially if you’re a “balls all out” OF like Ells. I like the kid. I just don’t see him as the kind of guy you want if you’re 2 or 3 years away from competing and also trying to adhere to a budget.
I agree with you on ellsbury. But on kalish i have to disagree. Kalish was fairly good in his short time in center field, hit pretty well for a rookie who started the year in AA. He Lars is a guy however has struggled to hit in AAA even though he’s older while Kalish has hit fairly good in the MAJORS. One it seems is projected to have 20-20 poteiontal( ya i can’t spell) while the other one isn’t even projected as a starter. So I would think that Ryan would have WAY more value than Lars.
Anyone else see the Reds as a dark horse candidate to get Upton? Alonso, Francisco, Bailey, Maloney, Boxberger?
I want to add my voice to the chorus of “Don’t trade Snider” If he can stay in left, and have Upton in Right, the outfield would be set for the next decade.
Some commentors have said that Drabek is untouchable, but I disagree. The Jays need to trade from strength to fill holes. Trading Snider creates another hole, where as Drabek is more easily replaced.
Cecil-Drabek-D’Arnaud and Mastroianni?
Carlos Perez is making D’Arnaud redundant in the system, and Mastroianni can contribute next year as a 4th OF/ speed type. I’d add Eric Thames to this package as well, mostly because I don’t see him having a future with the Jays, and because he could add value to the D’Backs….
we should start a lunchbox petition.
i think if you want upton w/o giving up snider it would take cecil, stewart, drabek, gose. too much? not enough?
I doubt gose moves.. but Drabek- Stewart-Cecil could be the diamond backs 1,2,3 starters for the next 5-6 years. not a bad starting point, add thames or d’arnaud to complete the deal.
That’s too expensive…at least for my tastes. As AA observed, you need a slew of talented power arms to succeed in the AL east. I think he sees pitching as a premium, and thus unloading the three youngest, high-ceiling pitchers (in or almost in the Show) is too much. I remember chatting with Mike W. from the Fan, and he thought that given Cecil’s age, ceiling, and southpaw-ness, Cecil is the one he would least like to see traded (and there’s something to that). Plus you do that trade, the Jays go from having future pitching as a noticeable strength to pitching being a question mark.
I think two pitchers + one catcher is more reasonable than three pitchers. In the trade you describe above, it would leave the Jays with a starting rotation of: Marcum, Romero, Morrow, Rzep, Litsch, with no pitching prospects really close to breaking the rotation.
So I think in terms of value it’s okay, but the positions are problematic.
Mcgowan has resumed throwing… pain free 😉 ..long shot.. but just saying
Got all my fingers and toes crossed for that guy. What a wonderful surprise it would be if he made it back!
sub d’arnaud for stewart. i like d’ arnaud better, but it seems stewart is closer to ml ready, which az seems to want. so cecil, drabek, d’arnaud, gose. cecil, drabek in az’s rotation in 2011, d’ arnaud and gose two middle of the diamond potential impact players.
The interesting thing about that trade proposal is that it includes the entire net haul for the Halladay trade (D’Arnaud, Gose, Drabek) PLUS Cecil.
In pure weight terms, I can’t imagine AA trading Halladay + Cecil for Upton.
i don’t think he would either. but i think that’s what it would take. i think, at least in az’s mind, justin upton is at least as valuable as halladay. in no way am i saying he’s as good as halladay, but considering his youth, cost, upside, team control, etc. i think az would want a halladay type return, maybe more. correct me if i’m wrong but didn’t the jays almost HAVE to move roy. and i think he had a no trade clause. as far as trade value i think upton> or = halladay.
I think it depends on the market.
Most GMs start off with the big talk, but eventually sensible evaluation takes over. I think the D’backs have put Upton out there because they *do* want to trade him in order to get better and cheaper. So…if there is an offer out there that makes the D’backs cheaper and better in exchange for Upton, then they will take it. And if there are multiple such offers, they will take the best one.
But most GMs will surely be wary about hurting their teams. For all the talk about Bard/Kelly/Ellsbury or Cecil/Snider/D’Arnaud etc., the receiving team has to get stronger, too. “Pain” should mean giving up a prospect(s), not reducing the overall health of your ball club.
It’s hard to justify that Upton is more valuable then Doc, he is younger and cheaper. Phillies knew they were getting Doc for 4 years though..So the question is then whats more valuable 4 years of doc at 80 millionor 5 years of up at 50 million ..It’s tough to compare. but its also hard to argue Roy’s consistency.. the phillies knew exactly what they were getting. which is consistent 6+ WAR seasons. Where as Upton’s ceiling, basement and consistency have yet to surface.
I’ll take Doc and his 17+ wins over any outfielder, especially when those wins are for a team with mediocre offense.
It’s hard to justify that Upton is more valuable then Doc, he is younger and cheaper. Phillies knew they were getting Doc for 4 years though..So the question is then whats more valuable 4 years of doc at 80 millionor 5 years of up at 50 million ..It’s tough to compare. but its also hard to argue Roy’s consistency.. the phillies knew exactly what they were getting. which is consistent 6+ WAR seasons. Where as Upton’s ceiling, basement and consistency have yet to surface.
Couldn’t agree more.
I don’t think it’s a case of “not wanting to give up Snider” in some weird man-love-hoarding way that we often see with fans. More that…it just makes no sense given the Jays’ needs.
If the Jays deal, it has to start with pitching and catching, and be rounded off with a couple of good prospects from any position.
If only we were all this sensible.
I agree exactly, it’s a matter of trading from a position of strength, to fill a position of weakness. It makes both teams better in the long run.
What would happen with Wells and Davis in that scenario?
What would happen with Wells and Davis in that scenario?
A friend who’s a red sox fan and I talked about it and came up with this 3 team deal
To the Diamond Backs.. Doubrount, Kalish, Stewart, Emaus, Reddick
To the Red Sox… Justin Upton, Jeremy Accardo
To the Blue Jays.. Jacoby Ellsbury
From a talent standpoint, I wouldn’t mind moving Ellsbury, Kalish, and Reddick, but there is no way that the Sox could do this unless they were sure that they would also bring in Crawford this offseason.
They aren’t trading their starter(Ellsbury) and their Drew(2012)/Ellsbury replacement(Kalish) in the same deal.
I don’t really see why not… the Red Sox have Drew for another year, have the money to sign another outfielder and you’re trading for a long-term fixture in the outfield. Even if they can’t sign Crawford/Werth, I think they’d jump at the opportunity to not include Kelly, Rizzo or Bard in a deal. They could always get a platoon partner for Cameron and wait until a better name comes up on the FA market down the line.
Well at the end of the season they would have 1 OF lined up for 2012(Upton). Have you looked at the FA OF’s for next season? Not awe inspiring. The Red Sox have to keep one of Kalish or Ellsbury.
And the whole reason they are looking into the possibility of trading for Upton is because they do not want to pay Werth or Crawford 100M+.
Not necessarily true, if you get Upton through a trade you still have just as much money to sign Werth/Crawford and I think the Sox would LOVE to have an outfield of Upton, Crawford and Drew. Plus, while I agree that at this point Kalish is their best outfield prospect, it’s not like he’s the only one or that there aren’t other ones coming up behind him who could be slated in after Drew leaves and more in the lower minors who could potentially be better than Kalish but are further away from the majors.
They still would have Lin who was pretty good this year, and they would have Fuentes and Brentz who both have potential but are a couple years away from getting a taste of the majors plus Vitek who some scouts are saying projects more as a corner outfielder than an infielder.
I don’t know the Blue Jays farm system all that well but the return to them seems a little light especially given Ellsbury is coming off an injury year. Also, not much major-league ready stuff headed to the D’Backs and it sounds like they’re looking for some of that in the deal.
Every single player going to Arizona is MLB ready.
“Had a taste” of MLB isn’t really MLB ready. Or to clarify, I think they’re looking for one or two “established” major-leaguers.
i’d give up stewart, emaus, accardo for ellsbury. i think the jays do fine in this deal, and so do the sox. i dont think az would do this. nice players but no real potential stud in that group. if i’m az, i want two players to plug into my lineup in 2011, and i want the top position prospect and top pitching prospect from whoever i trade with. from the sox i’d want ellsbury, kalish, iglesias, kelly. from the jays i’d want something like cecil, stewart, drabek, and gose or d’arnaud.
Maybe instead of Kalish you could use Che-Hsuan Li and Drake Britton? I say this because A) I really don’t want the Red Sox to trade Kalish and B) I really don’t think the Red Sox will and/or want to trade Kalish.
I am completely aware of the silliness of comparing players just because they are related, but just out of curiosity, was the scouting report on Justin Upton before he reached the majors better than that of BJ? Like, if the Rays had been looking to deal BJ after his 2007/2008 seasons would we be looking at the same return?
justin was seen as slightly ahead of bj in their draft years. he WAS seen as being able to have a chance to stay at ss. and his bat was seen as further along in his draft year than bj’s was in his draft year. justin upton was bryce harper-ish– as in you heard about him being a potential number 1 pick when he was 14. not a big difference but justin was the better prospect.
A deal this big for the Red Sox could make up for Kurt Teixeira signing with the Yankees a few years back.
Mark’s lesser-known younger brother?
Actually Kurt is the name of his working hamstring.
What is the comp for Justin Upton deal? It’s tough one since he’s so young and he’s under team control for another 5 years. Miguel Cabrera maybe? Who else?
barry bonds before he was juiced(his time in PITT) and Griffey
This sounds too muck like the Phil Kessel trade the Leafs did. Don’t give up too much of your future for one semi-proven youngster.
ya because seguin is outplaying kessel so far right? lol More like PROVEN YOUNG consistent 30 goal scorer.. leafs fans r brutal sometimes… if seguin becomes a consistent 30 goal scorer then you can talk.
If it was just Seguin that’s one thing and you’d be more correct, however it could also be a #1 draft this year as well.
Baseball is a totally different animal than hockey though, I believe having a couple great years in baseball shows you much more about a player than it does in hockey.
And i’m mainly talking about how if they Jays give up Cecil, Snider, Drabek, and Gose as some are suggesting that will hurt the team quite a lot now and in the future.
that deal wont happen – not snider cecil drabek and gose – maybe gose (but really doubt it as that is the main player AA wanted not Dominic Brown) at the very most, very most – cecil snider and some lower arms. Or snider and drabek (which i doubt as well) Gose. The more i think about it Snider i think will not be in the package.
I agree with you, and if Phil Kessel was the final peice of a championship caliber team, then the trade makes perfect sense… but when you have a bad team, adding a 30 goal scorer at the cost of draft picks makes zero sense.. because as you can see now.. all the leafs are, is a bad team with a 30 goal scorer on the roster…
Same situation with the Jays, if they give up too much for Upton, essentially you are just going to be an okay, non playoff team, with an All star in the outfield..
And I don’t think AA has done anything – yet – to suggest he is a high stakes gambler. We only need to look at his final offer for Uggla to see that. I’m sure he’ll make a strong offer for Upton, but not a stupid “overpay” one.
aslong as Snider’s not in it I’m okay with it.
I doubt too many premium pitchers would be, either. If AA was willing to deal away half the rotation, I doubt he’d have let Hill leave.
Agreed, he has only made incredibly good deals so far. That’s why I am finally getting seasons tickets for the first time ever this year. It looks like it’s going to be a great year so far.
Agreed, he has only made incredibly good deals so far. That’s why I am finally getting seasons tickets for the first time ever this year. It looks like it’s going to be a great year so far.
i agree with the upton thing , but the difference is we know what what were giving up to arizona unlike random draft picks in hockey… my point was you had a proven 30 goal scorer who can probably get 40 with better line mates… and how many chances do you get to aquire one of those.. draft picks are not a sure thing…sure seguin might be very good but nobody knows yet, we already know kessel is good, but with leafs fan its like it doesnt matter, a guy goes ona 5 game goaless drought and we should trade him, hes goes on streak of 5 goals in 4 games hes god and they go out and buy jerseys lmao , if we didnt get phil kessel we’d have almost no scoring at all and the leafs would hang burke out to dry because he didnt get anyone , and now we got him and they hang him out to dry for losing draft picks lol its like in this market there is no patience or logic i might be the only sane one with patience in this bandwagon hockey world… but i digress lmao why am i talking about hockey in a justin upton thread? feel free to flame me but i had to get that out!
to be honest i used to be a leaf fan, but I’m not anymore.. I understand the reasoning in getting a for sure thing in Kessel, but I don’t see the reasoning in adding him to a bad team.. Sure the team would be far worse this year, but you would be able to atleast have hope in drafting high.. same as last year..
So essentially, 2009-2010, and 2010-2010 the leafs won’t make the playoffs, but they get no top end draft picks, but have phil kessel… I don’t see the logic in that.. It made them a better team, but it didnt even make them a play off team..
also gotta remember burke did it out of confidence he had a good enough team to compete for the playoffs. its not like he did it assuming he was going to finish 29th that what people forget.
exactly!!!!! you said it, and thats what makes this entirely his fault.. Is because he saw what he had, and overvalued the team and their potential outcome. He missed and he missed bad.. setting this team back even further..
also gotta remember burke did it out of confidence he had a good enough team to compete for the playoffs. its not like he did it assuming he was going to finish 29th that what people forget.
i agree with the upton thing , but the difference is we know what what were giving up to arizona unlike random draft picks in hockey… my point was you had a proven 30 goal scorer who can probably get 40 with better line mates… and how many chances do you get to aquire one of those.. draft picks are not a sure thing…sure seguin might be very good but nobody knows yet, we already know kessel is good, but with leafs fan its like it doesnt matter, a guy goes ona 5 game goaless drought and we should trade him, hes goes on streak of 5 goals in 4 games hes god and they go out and buy jerseys lmao , if we didnt get phil kessel we’d have almost no scoring at all and the leafs would hang burke out to dry because he didnt get anyone , and now we got him and they hang him out to dry for losing draft picks lol its like in this market there is no patience or logic i might be the only sane one with patience in this bandwagon hockey world… but i digress lmao why am i talking about hockey in a justin upton thread? feel free to flame me but i had to get that out!
Seguin has potential to become a franchise player while Kessel can be a 40 goal scorer. I mean if Leafs had drafted Seguin, there would be absolutely no talk about him getting traded unless it was in a deal for Toews, Malkin, Stamkos etc… not Kessel. Ever. It wouldn’t even be a consideration because of the type of talent Seguin is. He may not be as good as Kessel is right now but he certainly has the potential to become better.
Just because Kessel is proven doesn’t make him more valuable than Seguin and Leafs overpaid big time for Kessel.
I’m sure if Burke can go back, he would probably not do that deal.
I don’t think it’s so much a case of giving up the future as giving up the present. Trade proposals suggesting Cecil + Drabek would mean 2/5ths of the Jays’ 2011 rotation gone. That on top of holes at 1B and in the bullpen.
The Jays’ future, as it stands, is actually pretty solid. The likes of Wells, Escobar, Hill, Lind, the rotation, Snider etc are locked up/under team control for a while.
Too bad almost every player in the Jays lineup either has a break out year or completely regresses.. in 2009 it was wells and rios, in 2010 lind and hill.. in 2011 I’m thinking wells and bautista.. it would be nice to go in to a season and know atleast a ball park of what kind of production you are going to get from some of your bigger names.
Sad but true. However, that’s probably the case at most ball clubs, and so long as AA continues to improve the overall quality of the ballclub, then the Jays will have increased success in spite of individual drop-offs.
I think. I hope…
Sad but true. However, that’s probably the case at most ball clubs, and so long as AA continues to improve the overall quality of the ballclub, then the Jays will have increased success in spite of individual drop-offs.
I think. I hope…
This is why I cant really see this deal getting done. The future of the Blue Jays looks set right now and I can see them being competitive by 2012 without Justin Upton in the mix. Adding him to the roster while giving up the likes of players such as: Drabek,Gose,Snider, or Cecil just doesnt make any sense and I see it setting them backwards. What does need to happen is Lind,Hill,and Snider need to hit there stride and move forwards. Those 3 guys get it together and hit there potential and then the pitching moves forward or stays the way it is and I think we’re good. What they might need to do is add an offensive player which I believe they can do via Free Agency especially with management saying they are willing to spend
I think the Red Sox make the most overall sense if Upton is dealt. They have the prospects to get it done and have the motivation to make a trade like this. Unlike the Jays, the Red Sox can afford to trade what it would take to acquire Upton without creating a ton of holes. I think this trade is acceptable for both teams:
Boston receives: Justin Upton
Arizona receives: Daniel Bard, Jose Iglesias, Ryan Kalish, Felix Doubront, Michael Bowden
This trade fills a lot of needs for Arizona. Bard and Bowden solidify the Dbacks bullpen which was by far the weakest position last year, and Doubront is ready to start. All three pitchers are extremely young, talented, and cost-controlled. Bowden also has the ability to start. Stephen Drew will probably be leaving town after 2012, about the time when Iglesias would be ready. Kalish is MLB ready as well and could take over RF for Upton. While Kalish is unlikely to become a star, he should put up very good numbers.
Towers would laugh at that offer and hang up the phone.
He’s the GM who is best known for building a bullpen from other teams scraps. You think he’s going to trade a franchise player for a deal based around improving his pen?
Try again and start with Buchholtz.
Try again and start with ‘Buchholz’
A deal without Clay could get done but it would have to include Ellsbury.
I was going to post again to reply to the other portion of his post regarding “centering around bullpen help.” The two most valuable pieces to the proposed trade above are Iglesias and Kalish. I am of the opinion that Kalish would actually be more valuable to the Diamondbacks than Ellsbury, however. Kalish is a fairly similar player to Ellsbury with a little more power and a little less speed. He is an excellent defender, has stolen bases prolifically at every level (including the MLB last year), and has some pop. The advantage to Ellsbury is that he is only 22. 5 years of a cost controlled Kalish is more valuable to ARZ in my mind then an already arbitration eligible Ellsbury.
Ellsbury is a proven commodity, Kalish has done little to nothing at the major league level.
Ellsbury, Bard, Iglesias is a strong offer. Or swap Kelly with Iglesias.
I would see no problem with replacing Kalish with Ellsbury, but again, Kalish is more valuable and more likely to be asked for by Arizona.
I disagree that Kalish is more valuable, though.
Kalish is 22. In only 78 games between AA and AAA last year, he hit 294/382/502 with 13 HRs and 25 SBs and 53Ks compared to 42BBs. All around, he put up an incredible line and although he had 13 more ABs than the maximum allowable to qualify as a prospect, Kalish is rated as Boston’s 2nd best prospect behind Kelly according to SoxProspects. Kalish will make the league minimum next year compared to Ellsbury who is already reaching arbitration, is now 26, and will be a free agent soon.
no system in baseball took a further step back than boston last year. they’re #1 propect is a sp with an era over 5 and a .307 avg against. there #2 prospect is an all glove/ no hit ss. ellsbury’s value is as low as its ever been. kalish is a tweener. doubront’s a mid-rotation guy. bard is fantastic but he’s a rp. i really don’t think boston has the bullets to get a deal done.
I can’t decide which statement is more asinine, calling Kalish a tweener or stating that the Red Sox system took a step back. The Red Sox had far and away the #1 rated draft last year. While you may or may not agree with the Sox philosophy regarding their young players, their choice is to advance their big time prospects a level higher than they may be ready for to challenge them. Statistically, Kelly had a bad year last year, but he was a 20 year old pitching in AA. A similar thing happened with Lars Anderson in the previous year. He started last year age appropriately and absolutely destroyed AA during the first month of the season.
where are you hearing that they had the best draft last year? didn’t see that anywhere. i believe baseball america rated cleveland as the best draft in 2010. and again, from ba “some scouts see kalish as a tweener w/o the defense for center or the bat to profile on a corner”
where are you hearing that they had the best draft last year? didn’t see that anywhere. i believe baseball america rated cleveland as the best draft in 2010. and again, from ba “some scouts see kalish as a tweener w/o the defense for center or the bat to profile on a corner”
urthermore, in a post discussing trade possibilities for upton, the 2010 draft has little relevance b/c those players can’t be named in a trade till a year after they’ve signed.
urthermore, in a post discussing trade possibilities for upton, the 2010 draft has little relevance b/c those players can’t be named in a trade till a year after they’ve signed.
aren’t you the dude who compared trading hellickson and jennings to trading cain and posey or votto and bruce. asinine much.
Considering contractual obligations, Buchholz is a more valuable commodity than Upton right now. “Starting” with Buchholz is ludicrous. Buchholz posted a higher WAR last year than Upton. Both had injuries which limited their numbers, but Buchholz is not even arbitration eligible until after this year and not a F/A until 2014. I guess this level of competence must be expected when a biased Yankee fan discusses Red Sox trade proposals, however.
“Buchholz is a more valuable commodity than Upton right now”
No he’s not. Did you forget 2009 when Upton put up a 4.6 WAR too?
No, not at all. Buchholz did not pitch much in at the MLB level in 09, however, so comparing value for them during that year is nearly impossible. While Upton had an unbelievable year in 09 (especially considering his age), he is also signed to a contract that will pay him $35 million more over the course of it than what Buchholz will make. Value is not just production dependent, but is a measure of production per dollar. Buchholz has shown that he has top 10 pitcher in baseball capability. A player his age that has his salary and production is more valuable than a player like Upton.
Did you forget the 2010 season where Buchholz pitched like an ace in the AL East and Upton regressed?
Would be such a pointless trade as it doesn’t even improve the team, likely makes it worse.
Great pitching is a lot more difficult to find and secure than great hitters.
Example: Tex, Cano, Jeter, Arod, Posada, Swisher, Granderson, Damon and Matsui
During that same time span, what truly “great” starters did the Yanks have in 2009-2010? Sabathia.
Doubront is not the front end rotation guy they need. His impact on the rotaion would be that of a middle/back guy. I’m not sold on Kelly myself and I don’t think the Sox would include Bard.
Substitute Kelly, Fuentes, Reddick, Lowrie and Doubront?
I am not sure of what you mean by substituting Kelly, Fuentes, Reddick, Lowrie and Doubront. If you are stating that this should be the package for Upton, it is significantly less valuable than the original package that I proposed, in my opinion. KT has made it fairly clear that he is much more interested in receiving young, MLB ready talent than prospects years away from the show. Kelly and Fuentes are not ready to make an impact at the MLB level until 2012-2013 at the earliest. If you saying substitute them for Bard in addition to the package that I posted, that would be insane. No one player in baseball is worth 9 players, especially 9 decent-good players with a large number of years of control remaining.
You offered: Daniel Bard, Jose Iglesias, Ryan Kalish, Felix Doubront, Michael Bowden
I meant rather than your offer: Kelly, Fuentes, Reddick, Lowrie and Doubront.
AZ needs starting pitching and the Sox don’t want to trade Bard or Iglesias. If Kelly reaches his celing that ppl suggest he has then you’re looking at a front end guy. Dubrount a middle guy. I can’t see Bard being a coveted piece by AZ seeing as how their rotation is so weak and don’t have enough meaningful games that need closing.
I think Upton would be in Boston very soon if that is what Arizona wanted in return.
lose bard and bowden, add ellsbury, and sub kelly for kalish. ellsbury, iglesias, doubront, kelly. don’t know why anyone would want bowden as he seems like a dime a dozen type pitcher, and bard as a centerpiece isn’t enough. you gotta give to get.
id love to see tampa get involved. i think hellickson, jennings, moore, b prospect would be as good a package as anyone could offer.
The Rays are banking on those players becoming stars, and those first 2 are 2011 roster locks.
true. looking more from az’s standpoint, as in if im their gm, i’d want 2 of those 3 more than just about any 2 from anyone else. if they wanted to tb could make as good an offer as any team in mlb.
Any team could make an incredible offer if they wanted to destroy their chances at winning/payroll flexibility. SF could offer Cain and Posey, Cincy could offer Votto and Bruce, etc. The reason that this trade isn’t feasible is that it would decimate the Rays chances at winning. With the planned budget cuts that Tampa is implementing this offseason, Hellickson and Jennings are going to be a big part of their future. Young, talented, cost-controlled players are more valuable in baseball now then at any point before.
isn’t j up a young, talented, cost controlled player? comparing hellickson, jennings, moore to cain and posey, votto and bruce is a little silly. those were all key pieces of playoff teams, which neither hellickson, jennings or moore was. as far as any team being able to offer a comp package, not sure about that. tb’s cost cutting will come from losing soriano, pena, crawford. as far as decimating the chances of winning, you’d replace jennings with upton (same age) lose moore, who’s at least a year away, and hellickson- who’s dope. but you gotta give to get. tampa has a butt load of pitching in the minors, they could afford to make this trade.
That would be a terrible trade for TB. It doesn’t make sense for them to trade for a $10 million/yr outfielder, who honestly hasn’t shown that he’s worth it yet. That would be like 20% of their budget gambled on one player who could be great. They are better off gambling that 3 of there prospects become great, and also will be a lot cheaper then Upton.
if 10m/ yr is gonna be 20% of their budget, theyre ef’d. the window is closing quickly.
I can absolutely guarantee that this trade will never be made. If that is what it takes, Upton will be in Arizona next year.
i think upton will be in az next year, bc i think that’s what it would take. that said, i’d consider this from a sox point of view. iglesias is gonna be a light hitting great glove ss, doubront is a #3, kelly, for all the glowing reports i’ve read, got lit up at AA. this really doesn’t seem to be too much to give up for upton.
Phoenix sports radio reporting that Snider is in any deal for Justin Upton. Take that for what it’s worth. I don’t want AA to trade Snider. Even for Justin Upton. Rather trade Drabek.
Agreed, if Snider played as much as he should have last season his numbers would look much better. Though he may not be as defensively sound as Upton, his offence has the potential to be far better.
Snider is an extremely talented young player, but saying that his offense has the potential to be FAR better is laughable. I am a huge Snider fan and think that he will turn into a star, but Upton is one of the most lauded hitting prospects available in the draft in the last 20 years. If both players reach their full potential, which is unlikely, Upton will be the superior offensive player and the FAR superior defensive player.
I dont know if its laughable really… Upton hit 17 HR in 495 AB’s last year as a 23 year old… Snider hit 14 in 298 ABs as a 22 year old …. I really don’t see how thats laughable.. Snider has as much room and ceiling as Upton does, Upton is one step ahead career wise, but really a lot of that is bad luck with Snider not lack of ability (injuries, Cito)
HRs are not the defining measure of an offensive players’ ability. Even so, Upton hit 26 in 2009. As I said above, I believe Snider will be a star eventually, but Upton is more talented in every phase of the game than Snider.
and I agree.. but is losing Snider ( and more) but gaining Upton, really making the Jays that much better?
Answer: No.
Yes they do because they will get a star player and a lock in the lineup/outfield for 5 years rather than the overcrowded prospect we would keep. (not all prospect will make a big impact and not saying its bad to have a bunch of prospects) AA plan was to get star type of players and there is one available in Upton who is young and a flexible contract. I know everyone here is hyping up that Snider could potentially be a star player but its only if’s and maybe John doesn’t like his style of play and do what cito did to him last year. ( as many said it..not used him properly)
No they don’t because realistically, losing Snider and lets say Stewart and a prospect but gaining Upton means the Jays are going to have to go in to the season with an outfield of
Davis-Wells-Upton…. Davis is still a huge hole, and no one is available to move up and solidify one of the other outfield positions, if you keep jbau there, then you have a hole at 3rd base..
if we had a prospect in the minors, who ready to jump up and contribute, who could man an outfield position, then I would say sure, do the deal, because Upton is the better player.. but the reality is they don’t.. So is Upton alone going to push this offense to a contender? No, he’s not Albert Freaking Pujols or Josh Damn Hamilton, He’s Justin Upton, an extremely talented very good baseball player.
Sorry you didn’t prove to me how losing Snider but adding Upton makes the team a playoff contender… Now losing Drabek and a few other arms, maybe Arencibia.. but adding Upton to the lineup with Snider.. well, now we’re talking
Yes they do because they will get a star player..
Ummm.. this is a pointless argument to make here. By saying this, I get the impression that the Marlins robbed the Braves because they got an All-Star player, and the Braves didn’t.
All that matters is value, not if a player is a star or not. While having Upton would be insane, giving up Snider just counteracts with what the Jays are doing. They’re much better off centering a package around Drabek, and they should see what they can get for Marcum.
Yes they do because they will get a star player and a lock in the lineup/outfield for 5 years rather than the overcrowded prospect we would keep. (not all prospect will make a big impact and not saying its bad to have a bunch of prospects) AA plan was to get star type of players and there is one available in Upton who is young and a flexible contract. I know everyone here is hyping up that Snider could potentially be a star player but its only if’s and maybe John doesn’t like his style of play and do what cito did to him last year. ( as many said it..not used him properly)
So..your saying who ever hits more homerun is a better hitter? We Jays fan are loving the longball too much! Its all the sharp quattron tv fault. Too many Jays fan already won one or wants to win one..
It was just one example.. fine.. Upton OPS was .799 Snider’s was .767.
terrible.
I think I’ll be more upset if they trade Snider then when they traded Doc, and I’m a huge doc fan. .. Cancel season tickets?
Blue Jays need speed and already have power in their lineup. With all the pitchers AA drafted and our young potential great staff, we could compete now or next year if we can get Upton.
Blue Jays Fans..Who would you guys rather have? An outfielder who has a so-so defense with potential to be a great hitter or an outfielder who has good defense and good offensive skills and still has potential to be a great hitter?
you’d rather have upton than snider, but i think you’d rather have snider and drabek than upton. if you have to give up snider and more i don;t think you really improve the team.
I’ll rather Trade Snider than Kyle Drabek. If we had a defense of Davis, Wells and Upton we would have a really good outfield defense. Also, if it was Drabek not Snider..Where would you put Snider? DH? Split time in the outfield?
if i can get upton w/o losing snyder my OF is snyder wells upton. rajai as a 4th of. may not be a great OF defense, but certainly a potent OF offense, and set at the corners for years. drabek would be tough to lose but it seems sp is a position of strength for the blue jays.
at the end of the day, i just don’t see upton going. teams are offering a, b, c, d and i think az is looking for a, b, c, d, unicorn tusk, the pockets of a pocket fox, the wicked witch’s broom stick, etc.
and harry potter book and movie pass
and sasha grey’s gag reflex
Best comment i have ever read on the site. Could not stop laughing.
Davis is NOT a starter, he’s a glorified Joey Gathright.. NO team in the AL east is going anywhere when one of their outfielders is as leading off and has such an inconsistent record of getting on base.. his obp was .320 last year, lets see what he can do again the AL easts pitching before we hand him an every day position
Drabek is more expendable. The rotation would remain pretty much as strong as it was, while the outfield and offense would have a huge upgrade.
Point taken if you’re talking about trading them straight up for one another I’m all for it, but what people are missing is you’d have to add three or four more pieces after that. The end result therefore is a marginal upgrade in the outfield at a huge cost.
You can’t ignore the fact that Justin Upton will make 50m through 2015, while Snider will likely make the minimum in 2011-2012 and then at most around 25m for 2013-2015 if he lives up to expectations. That’s a lot of value to make up with your defense, and that’s before you start talking about all the other pieces the Blue Jays apparently would have to add to the deal.
I find it interesting that the Orioles are listed as potential suitors for Justin Upton. Who would they give up and how does that fit in with their fairly strong outfield situation? (Jones Markakis)
A tweet from Jon Paul Morosi:
“Spoke with a couple people in game who believe #BlueJays would need to part with Drabek or Hechavarria to get JU. I’m still not sure. #D …”
If the Jays could get Upton by including Hech, but without giving up Snider or Drabek I say go for it.
If the offer were to be Hech, Stewart, Alvarez, Arencebia/D’arnaud for Upton, would you be willing to live with that? I’m still not sure. Thats alot of future there at dificult positions to fill. More difficult than finding a good/could be great corner outfielder…
if i’m the jays i do that in a heartbeat. you’re getting upton and not losing any of your top 3 prospects (drabek, mcguire(can’t be traded yet) and gose.
arizona media says Snider is the primary piece requested…..Drabek or Hech are in addition to
I would not include Snider in any deal for Justin Upton. I realize how good Upton is, but think Snider is extremely talented and an outfield of both would be amazing. I’d be willing to part with Drabek AND Hech if it meant not having to deal Snider.
They can have Drabek and Hech but not Drabek + Snider. Upton is a great player and potential to become elite but that’s too much talent being given up. Snider + Stewart + 1 or mid-level prospects make sense to me.
Harold Reynolds said something ridiculous on MLB Radio but here goes: he said that the Jays told the DBacks to pick ANY 5 prospects they wanted. Assuming Drabek is not part of that package… A Stewart/Gose/D’Arnaud /Marisnick/Hecheverria would be a pretty decent haul for Upton. Although, only Stewart is really MLB ready.
If the Jays somehow build a package to acquire Upton AND Reynolds without giving up Snider, I would kiss the altar of AA.
My dream scenario would be AA dipping into the free agency pool to fill any holes caused by upton trade.
ARZ gets: Romero, JPA, Stewart, outfield prospect(s) (Gose OR Thames + Mastrionni (sp))
Tor gets: Upton
Arizona needs a young/controllable ace pitcher and romero can develop into that for them at a reasonable price tag, especially in the national league. Stewart can close or start, JPA is a young/cheap power bat and they can have their choice of high risk/reward outfield prospect in gose or safer option(s) in the other 2.
Then Toronto signs Cliff Lee to a 6 yr 130 mil contract (make 5th and 6th year vesting options with high buyout) and Victor Martinez to a 4 year contract. Add a DH out of Manny/magglio/vlad/Thome and you have:
OF: Snider, Wells, Upton
IF: Bautista, Escobar, Hill, Lind
C: Martinez (for the next 2 years, after which he can shift to 1B/DH when d’arnaud or perez is ready)
DH: Manny/Magglio/Vlad/Thome
Rotation: Lee/Marcum/Morrow/Cecil/Drabek
Basically go all in for the next 4 years, which is roughly the duration fo well’s albatross, after which we can start over again. 🙂
Question: Why the hell would Romero be in a deal for Upton? He just signed a team-friendly contract, even more friendly than Upton IMO and I believe it’s a 6 year deal with an option for 7. And he is a guy that’s emerging as an ace in the AL East, put him in NL and I think he becomes one. Not to mention a potential starting catcher, potential #2 starter and Gose (who is our 3rd best prospect – big difference between Gose and Thames btw).
Make it Cecil and I’d do it.
I thought we spent the last few days explaining the boatload of talent that upton will cost/is worth. Thanks for defending how this would be a win for Arizona though…? I knwo Gose is worth more than thames, thats why i let arizona pick between Thames + mastrionni or Gose. Gotta give to get.
Nobody is going to trade an established player like Romero who is a #2 starter and emerging into an ace… especially because that doesn’t even make your team better. Upton has great talent but it’s still talent. Just because he is 23 years old doesn’t guarntee he will turn into a star. BJ Upton had a similar year at the age of 22 years old as well, regressed a little at 23 years old and has kept doing that. He’s still got great talent as well but it doesn’t mean he will turn into an elite player some expected.
I agree it will take an overpayment to get Justin Upton but it does not make sense to give up Romero. I’d rather give up Drabek.
I guess I didn’t make clear that this trade is proposed only if we get Cliff Lee and Martinez, otherwise I agree that it will create other holes for us. Personally I rather keep Drabek over Romero, if we’re gonna splurge on FAs we’ll need cheap(er) talents to complement with. Also Arizona would want Romero over Drabek, I presume.
You still don’t make sense and your dreaming
Yea, hence I called it a dream scenario. Seriously though if you look at that line up, its a championship caliber team imo. this is much better than the alternative nightmare of wells contracta nd mediocrity in the next 4 years 🙁
I’ve said it once or twice, but it’s so buried in this thread I’d midaswell repeat it so it’s easily visible.
What if the Jays get a 3rd team involved, much like Oakland in the Halladay deal? You have a certain ground of players to be moved to Arizona, you trade Marcum for a prospect or two and flip one or both to the D’backs to complete it? Marcum should net you at least a solid prospect or two.
Drabek, d’Arnaud, + prospect(s) via Marcum deal. Add Kevin Ahrens so I don’t have to see him fail anymore.
Yeah that’s what I’ve been thinking. I wouldn’t mind seeing either Marcum or Bautista traded for prospects which can be flipped for Upton.
However, I wonder if Dbacks would be interested in Marcum? He still has 2 more years of arbitration left and would qualify for an established arm they’ve been asking for.
However, losing Drabek + Marcum is a major hit to the pitching staff — something AA wants to build on.
Personally, I believe we have the pieces to get Upton but I think it would just be too much trouble. If it’s not Drabek then it’s Snider and it just creates a hole. Maybe we’re better off not getting him?
Perhaps. It’s also a question of is the farm deep enough to accomodate such a trade without losing any momentum over the next 5 years? That’s a hard question to answer. If the Jays pulled this trade off, it would probably set them back a year in the rebuild phase, but could strengthen their position in the long run.
The whole point of my proposal was that we would FINISH our rebuild now and contend for the next 4 years, thanks to the addition of Lee and martinez to fill our holes.
Stop dreaming. Lee is not coming here and I’m certainly not willing to give the overpaid contract he is about to get.
Martinez is overrated. His value is at the catching position and if he’s not there, he’s not worth that much as a 1st baseman but still 10mil per year.
TESTIFY!
While sinking big money into type-A free agents? The Jays already have one albatross of a contract in Wells, why potentialy compound it with another? Why give up high draft picks? Giving up a 1st round draft pick and $130-million to a 32-year old is not how you rebuild my friend.
They Jays should, and probably will sign ManRam after the 23rd to be their DH, and that should be their only big free agent signing. If they want to spend money, they have a mess called the bullpen they need to fix, but not on type-A’s.
Wouldn’t mind seeing them buy low on couple of guys either like BJ Upton (Justin value is too high IMO), perhaps see if Ellsbury is available or Kemp… Gardner?
I’d say the Jays should put every saving throw into Justin. Seldom do you see a player like this on the block. Rasmus seems to be off the market, if there ever truly was one.
BJ Upton is, well, an unusual possibility. He definitely needs a change in scenery, but I don’t think anyone could know if that would ressurrect his severely dimished game. I wouldn’t bother with Ellsbury or Gardner since they’re not as high impact. Kemp just isn’t available, but I’d go for him if he were.
Yeah Justin definitely is the best name out of all of them but I don’t know if it’s worth the cost. You fill one hole and create another.
I mentioned BJ because I definitely think he can turn it around with a change of scenery and he is a guy that can steal 40 bases. He would give us a top of the order bat and if he regains his 270-300 average he had early on, I think he would be a great threat to have. He’s got a sweet swing and who knows, maybe Murphy can help him get prepared faster. He often seems behind on pitches.
Ellsbury and Gardner aren’t as high impact but you have to respect their game and it would complement this offense very nicely. They can both get on base and hit for a good average and both are great stealing threats.
Kemp, I think he is in a similar boat as BJ but the way he regressed from last year compared to this year was just insane but he is still very young and definitely a player who can turn it around. I’d say he’s an elite talent like Upton with Upton potentially have higher upside though but Kemp makes for it as he plays CF (well assuming he gets back to his 09 self offensively and defensively).
Yeah Justin definitely is the best name out of all of them but I don’t know if it’s worth the cost. You fill one hole and create another.
I mentioned BJ because I definitely think he can turn it around with a change of scenery and he is a guy that can steal 40 bases. He would give us a top of the order bat and if he regains his 270-300 average he had early on, I think he would be a great threat to have. He’s got a sweet swing and who knows, maybe Murphy can help him get prepared faster. He often seems behind on pitches.
Ellsbury and Gardner aren’t as high impact but you have to respect their game and it would complement this offense very nicely. They can both get on base and hit for a good average and both are great stealing threats.
Kemp, I think he is in a similar boat as BJ but the way he regressed from last year compared to this year was just insane but he is still very young and definitely a player who can turn it around. I’d say he’s an elite talent like Upton with Upton potentially have higher upside though but Kemp makes for it as he plays CF (well assuming he gets back to his 09 self offensively and defensively).
I’d say the Jays should put every saving throw into Justin. Seldom do you see a player like this on the block. Rasmus seems to be off the market, if there ever truly was one.
BJ Upton is, well, an unusual possibility. He definitely needs a change in scenery, but I don’t think anyone could know if that would ressurrect his severely dimished game. I wouldn’t bother with Ellsbury or Gardner since they’re not as high impact. Kemp just isn’t available, but I’d go for him if he were.
I didn’t finish reading it after I saw Romero’s name going the other way for Upton
Rogers has #@$@load of money to blow, and they want to do it to win. Leaving the money issue (which isn’t one) aside, we’re essentially dealing:
Cliff Lee for Romero
Martinez for JPA
Upton for Gose, Stewart
I don’t understand why people think this is bad? we even get to keep drabek/snider to boot.
What makes you think Lee or Martinez will come here? Lee would also require a massive overpayment and I’d just stay away from him considering how hard Yankees will bid at him and it just seems like he’ll end up being one of those guys with one of the worst contracts in the league.
Romero has A LOT of value. That offer is way too much, dude.
If Toronto is the mystery third team in the Boston Arizona talks…it might be related to Casey Kelly. Arizona wants major league ready players. Boston wants Kelly to be part of the package.
AA swoops in and offers Kyle (almost typed Doug) Drabek to Arizona for Casey Kelly similar to Brett Wallace for Anthony Gose. After all, AA was probably asking for Kelly when shopping Roy Halladay.
Much rather have Drabek than Kelly.
How did you feel about Wallace for Gose at “first glance”?
Just asking to get perspective. Not meant to be a presumptious/leading question.
Those are completely 2 different types of players.. one is a average power, lacklustre defense 1st baseman, the other a speedy athletic center fielder..
where as drabek and kelly are both rh starting pitchers..
My point being, although both you and Hullo are very knowledgeable (most likely more than me) about the players, AA might have a different view on them as illustrated in the Wallace for Gose deal. So, you better be prepared to be surprised. At least, AA’s history tell us so.
BTW, what do you guys think of this Mark Reynolds? Some of the D-Back fans mentioned Towers might want to unload him as well.
does he have something against the mid west
I always wonder how players come up with these partial no-trade clause teams
BJ (22): .300/.386/.508 24 HR and 82 RBI (22 SB) — 4.2 WAR (defense brought him down)
Justin (21): .300/.366/.532 26 HR and 86 RBI (20 SB) — 4.6 WAR
Next season:
BJ (23): .273/.383/.401 with 9 HR and 67 RBI — 4.7 WAR (defense was good)
Justin (22): .273/.356/.442 with 17 HR and 69 RBI — WAR 3.1
Justin K’s went up from 26% to 30.7% while BJ’s actually went down from 32.5% to 25.2% but went back up after those years. BJ continued to regress since his first year offensively and Justin path seems pretty similar. I think he’s got more talent… but still. The K’s are a major red flag IMO.
I’m not coming to any conclusion or anything but I’d just like some opinions.
far as i remember, they were seen as very similar players, with 18yo justin being a bit more advanced than 18yo bj. similar ceilings i think. i remember hearing that justin was also thought to be able to stay at ss, at least longer than bj. interesting to see those numbers.
Shortstop? See, I never knew that. I’ve only been following Baseball for like the past 2-3 years so I’m pretty much going on stats hence why I wanted some opinions.
the ba ’05 draft scouting report “justin has proven equally athletic, and more advanced offensively than bj at the same age” and “upton moves well defensively and has clean actions at ss, but again follows in his brothers footsteps b/c he has trouble harnessing the plus arm strength that has allowed him to hit 94 off a mound” i think it was kind of a bryce harper position change situation, as in maybe he COULD play ss, but the bat is so advanced that you want to get it to the majors.
94 at age 18…damn. Let him pitch every 5th day.
also from the same scouting report, “his 6.28 60yd dash at a perfect game showcase was the quickest time in the scouting service’s history”. truly a 5 tool guy. it seems the mlb draft gets more attention now, but he was bryce harper before bryce harper was bryce harper. i remember hearing about him being the #1 pick in ’05 when his brother was drafted in ’02. 5 tools graded as future plus.
BJ’s problems are more mechanical. He tends to have a long swing at time and can’t handle hard fastballs so power pitchers dominate him while he hits softer pitching better. All I know Justin’s problem is just his contact rate. I don’t know why but while their career path is similar I agree with the fact that no real conclusion can be drawn.
So would BJ problems be fixable (I don’t even know if that’s a word or not lol)? I’ve noticed the same thing in some of games I’ve watched. He has a hard time catching up to the fastball but would it be a case of Jose Bautista, as in getting ready sooner for the fastball?
I haven’t seen Justin play much just because I don’t really watch NL games but the amount of K’s he has is still concerning and while it’s something that can be fixed because he is young, there is also the case what if it’s not? You’d have to think his batting average will eventually suffer if he continues to strikeout as much as he did in 2010.
Upton only goes for an ace calibur pitcher. Hudson/Kennedy/Saunders are 2-3-4 type guys. Nothing happens unless Buckholtz, Romero or Greinke are involved unless the M’s offer Ackley/Smoak.
I think if the angels dont sign carl crawford they will pursue justin upton
Are fans of AL East teams the only people who use this site?
yes.. minus orioles fans.. they don’t use the internet.
I do notice a lot of Jays fans on the site. But then again, maybe that’s just because I mostly read Jays stories.
There are a few writers as well that are Jays fans but yeah it seems mostly people from AL East use this site.
I disagree. It all depends on what posts you are reading and commenting on. Most of the ones I read and comment on regularly, have a ton of AL Central fans.
I have counted 8 including myself since I have been here.
no look up, at my name
Lol. I think us Tigers fans are very well represented on this site.
With this many teams interested, if this guy gets moved it’s going to be for a king’s ransom.