Free Agent Arbitration Offer Predictions

23 free agents were offered arbitration last year, down one from the year prior.  This year, I predict that more than 30 players will receive offers.  I expect this mainly because of my feelings on the 65 individual candidates.  On a macro level, we could see more arbitration offers to free agents due to more value being placed on draft picks.  Additionally, teams may be more inclined to offer if they think players are more likely to decline due to the lavish contracts given out so far.

Last year I was correct on 58 of 70 (82.9%).  This year there are 63 Type A or B free agents, excluding Joaquin Benoit and John Buck.  So hopefully I'm right on at least 53 of these.  The deadline is tomorrow night at midnight eastern time, a week earlier than in years past.

Type A

• Grant Balfour – Yes, he will be offered arbitration
• Adrian Beltre – Yes
• Carl Crawford – Yes
• Jorge De La Rosa – Yes
• Scott Downs – Yes
• Adam Dunn – Yes
• Frank Francisco – No
• Jason Frasor – Yes
• Vladimir Guerrero – No
• Matt Guerrier – Yes
• Derek Jeter – Yes
• Paul Konerko – Yes
• Cliff Lee – Yes
• Derrek Lee – No
• Victor Martinez – Yes
• Bengie Molina – No
• Magglio Ordonez – No
• Carl Pavano – Yes
• Andy Pettitte – No
• A.J. Pierzynski – No
• Manny Ramirez - No
• Arthur Rhodes – Yes
• Mariano Rivera - No
• Rafael Soriano – Yes
• Miguel Tejada – No
• Jayson Werth – Yes
• Dan Wheeler – Yes

Type B

• Rod Barajas - No
• Lance Berkman – No
• Orlando Cabrera – No
• Randy Choate – Yes
• Kevin Correia – No
• Jesse Crain – Yes
• Johnny Damon – No
• Octavio Dotel – No
• Chad Durbin – Yes
• David Eckstein – No
• Pedro Feliciano – Yes
• Brian Fuentes – No
• Jon Garland – Yes
• Kevin Gregg – Yes
• Brad Hawpe – No
• Aaron Heilman – No
• Trevor Hoffman – No
• Orlando Hudson – No
• Aubrey Huff – Yes
• Gerald Laird – No
• Adam LaRoche – Yes
• Felipe Lopez – Yes
• Hideki Matsui – No
• Kevin Millwood – No
• Miguel Olivo – Yes
• Carlos Pena – No
• Scott Podsednik – Yes
• J.J. Putz – Yes
• Chad Qualls – No
• Jon Rauch – Yes
• Yorvit Torrealba – Yes
• Koji Uehara - No
• Juan Uribe – Yes
• Jason Varitek – No
• Javier Vazquez – No
• Kerry Wood – No

Thanks to Ben Nicholson-Smith, Mark Gonzales, and others who gave feedback on this list.