The Royals boast baseball's best farm system, deep with impact bats and power arms, but the timetable for those prospects might not match up with their best player, starter Zack Greinke. Because of that, ESPN's Buster Olney reports (Insider req'd) that the team intends to listen to "any and all" offers for the righthander, who has two years and $27MM left on his contract before free agency.
Five days away from his 27th birthday, Greinke would instantly become the best available starter on the trade market this offseason and the second best available pitcher overall behind free agent-to-be Cliff Lee. The 2009 Cy Young Award winner posted a 4.17 ERA in 2010, but his peripherals were still excellent (7.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9) and his fastball was as lively as ever. The high ERA is the result of a 65.3% left-on-base rate, well below the 72.2% league average. Kansas City's porous defense (-44.5 UZR, third worst in MLB) had a hand in that.
Olney notes that because Greinke is under contract for two more years, they don't have to trade him just yet. They could wait until the deadline or next offseason to get the offer they want, and there's always the possibility of an extension assuming Greinke likes what he sees as far as the rebuilding process. He sounded pessimistic about those efforts back in August, though.
Greinke does have a limited no-trade clause in his contract for this season according to Cot's, though the extent of his veto power is unknown.
With Greinke, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, Matt Kemp and Colby Rasmus all rumored to be possibly traded this off-season (not saying they will, but that at least we’ll hear a bunch of rumors about them!), this winter could be a blast.
The Cardinals won’t trade Colby Rasmus. He is a top (Cardinal farm system) prospect, young, and cheap. Also, I don’t think a lot of teams will be interested in the baggage that comes with Colby: his dad who thinks he’s a coach
I agree, and as a Royals fan, it’s really exciting to imagine our farm system even better than it already is. Imagine Montero and Betances added to Lamb, Duffy, Colon, Giavotella, Moose, Monty, Eibner, Keating, Hosmer, Myers, Perez, Dwyer, Collins, Coleman, D-Rob, Arguelles, Ventura, Sandford, Cuthbert, Santiago, and Simmons? That would be incredible. Although I think it’s best to trade Greinke next summer when his value is higher, I think the Royals can still get a lot for him now as well.
And all of this talk about him not succeeding in a large market, the truth is that nobody knows, so we just can’t rule out any teams. As you said, it’s going to be so exciting!!!!!!!!!!!!!
just curious, how many teams are you a fan of? Seems like a bit^^
Every single one
cough except the yankees cough
I’m going to laugh at you when this doesen’t happen.
Trust me, if you laugh at me, ill understand
Wouldn’t Greinke’s value be highest now while the team has him for 2 full years instead of 1 1/2 or less?
He didn’t have a good season so if they kept him until next summer he would have the chance to really rebuild his value.
he would also have a chance to damage it even more if they waited till the deadline…..
if teams are still willing to give up an ace’s ransom to get grienke NOW, then i would do it.
As would I, I was just pointing that out. Trade him today. 3:20 EST.
Plus teams contending at the deadline tend to be willing to give up more in an attempt to win that year.
He had a very good season.
Explain why? He did not.
He’s 7th among AL pitchers in fWAR. That’s why.
Okay. And his ERA was over 200 points from what it was the year before, his K rate was down, he was extremely inconsistent. I’m sorry he didn’t have a good season.
opp BABIP was .314
He was -.50 clutch
come on now.
I’m sorry, what do you want me to say?
He did not have a good season.
Clearly he took a step back, but taking a step back from a Cy Young season to a solid starter doesn’t mean he had a “bad” season. Maybe bad by HIS standards, but far from bad when measured versus the overall SP population.
So what I meant was, for greinke, it wasn’t good.
I’m sorry, what do you want me to say?
He did not have a good season.
come on now.
Just because this year’s performance wasn’t as good as last years, doesn’t mean he didn’t have a good year. He still was one of the best pitchers last year. You can book him for around 220 IP with a 3.10-3.40 ERA next year.
EDIT: My God, I said “year” like, 1000000000000000 times there. Oh well.
Certainly. He is one of the best pitchers in baseball, but to me, a 4.14 ERA doesn’t qualify as a good season. And he will have a good season next year.
Just because this year’s performance wasn’t as good as last years, doesn’t mean he didn’t have a good year. He still was one of the best pitchers last year. You can book him for around 220 IP with a 3.10-3.40 ERA next year.
EDIT: My God, I said “year” like, 1000000000000000 times there. Oh well.
Okay. And his ERA was over 200 points from what it was the year before, his K rate was down, he was extremely inconsistent. I’m sorry he didn’t have a good season.
opp BABIP was .314
He was -.50 clutch
He’s 7th among AL pitchers in fWAR. That’s why.
It’d be stupid for them not to listen, if someone is willing to ridiculously overpay for him, then they should think about trading him.
Greinke’s past anxiety issues will definitely deter most contending teams. Is there anyone out there that would trust him to not implode on a big stage? I wouldn’t, he’s a disaster waiting to happen.
This is true. His $27mil (2 years) is a hefty price tag for someone that could be the next Khalil Greene.
no one knows what will happen. You can only assume or guess.
Which is why his point is legitimate.
As far as I know his mental health issues have never led him to break down mentally during a game.
They don’t lead to breakdowns–just laspes in judgment, an apathetic demeanor and a wandering mind.
sounds like oliver perez has been leading a double life.
sounds like oliver perez has been leading a double life.
I bet the Yankees get into this one, maybe a trade like Phil huges, chamberlian, Gardner, montero for grienke and soria.
Keep Hughes and Gardner and add Brackman and keep out Soria.
Brackman, Joba and Montero for Grienke
Next 5-10 years of Grienke and Hughes would be untouchable for Yankees. Add in CC and maybe one more year of Pettite. The Yankees would be back in the WS no question.
U forgot cliff lee. Plus I’m a sox fan so we’d be screwed o this happened.
How about just Betances and Montero for Greinke?
Soria is staying, but if he went to the Rays for Jennings and Hellickson that would be awesome for my Royals!!
The royals would be set if they got hell boy and Jennings. I think the rays would trade Wade Davis for soria. But Jennings is gunna be there replacement for Crawford. I think the royals could easy get huges, chamberlian and montero for grienke. Or Gardner, chamberlian, montero, and 2 top prospects.
I think Betances and Montero is more than enough for Greinke.
I don’t know this betances guy? Who is he and what postion does he play?He wasn’t on the top 100 prospects list. Unless he’s really good I Expect the royals to ask for more.
He is one of the top 5-10 pitching prospects in Baseball.
They might ask to have chamberlian thrown in. Or the Yankees will throw him in. That sounds like a pretty even trade. I’d still ask for huges, Gardner, nova. Justvone though.
Nova Betances montero
Not even close! Montero couldn’t get 3 months of Cliff Lee, nevermind 2 years of Greinke!
Okay I hear you. Montero, Betances, Adams, and Gardner?
Gardner isn’t going anywhere. David Adams might be solid trade bait. Span, if the Yankees(Hopefully)don’t trade for Zack, wouldn’t you like to see Texas go after him? Better atmosphere for Grienke.
Honestly Henry, absolutley…but I seriously think that maybe 2/3 of MLB teams might go after him and would be a decent fit. Because obviously there’s a chance that the pressure and media will get to greinke, but there’s also a chance it won’t, which is what a lot of teams see banking on and rightfully so. I would like to see the Rangers make a play but I would like to see tons of teams make a play as well
Deal!
Sounds good to me.
montero is the best hitting prospect in baseball. His value is increasing .
Are you kidding me look again…
he Yankees aren’t going to trade Phil Hughes. He won 18 games and is 24.
I sure they would!!! But you are also dreaming if you think the Royals would trade Soria for Davis…
How about NOT trading Montero. I was fine with Cashman trying to trade Montero for Halladay and maybe even Cliff Lee but Zack Greinke is NOWHERE near the caliber of those guys. The Yankees need Montero, bad defense and all. His bat is godlike and if we can get him to play passable defense (Brian McCann like defense) that would be epic. Cervelli has been uninspiring and Romine is looking like a below average starting catcher. Montero is the catcher Yankee fans have been waiting for.
How about Betances, Romine, and Joba for Greinke. I could see Eduardo Nunez and Brandon Laird also being trade bait for deals like this. The Royals need a shortstop after all. Call me greedy but I’d love for the Yankees to get Joakim Soria somehow. Who knows?
I have to say that this offseason is going to be way more exciting than last year. Alot of teams are catching on to small market success stories like the Rays and trying to build their teams the same way.
I disagree with you bigtime
Actually they drafted Christian colon this year. He’s there future ss. Ur giving up no good prospects for grienke. What do u think the royals are built off of? Prospects. That’s just like me saying trade grienke and soria to Boston for Anderson, bowden, reddick, ellsbury. If u want grienke and soria ur gunna have to give up good prospects. Like huges or gardner forthe center pieace, then montero, Betances, plus chamberlian or nova.
Brian McCann is an average defensive catcher
Montero isn’t a catcher. He doesn’t even play passable defense and is too big for the position. He is a career DH with Teixeira at first.
As a Red Sox fan, I would LOVE for them to do that. Oh man, my prayers would be answered.
I hope you’re trolling…
I’m also a red sox fan to. We might e in trouble if the Yankees got grienke and soria. I don’t think Boston has room for grienke in our rotation. We would have to move dice-k. I don’t know if I could give up 4 top prospects for this guy. He would have a hell lot more pressure pitching for Boston or new York and in the AL east.
I don’t think so at all. If they gave up what you said, they would be a much weaker team. Greinke will not be in Yankee Stadium or Fenway Park. He just can’t handle the pressure.
I could definitely see a NL team going after him though. Maybe the Cards or Braves?
I don’t know, I would say the Yankees will be on this one and the only way the sox get into this one is of the asking price is low. Which probs isn’t the case. I don’t think it will make there team weaker. The only guy they would really miss would be gardner. Grienke is an upgrade over huges, soria is an upgrade over chamberlian. Plus the Yankees will probs sign lee this offseason so cc, lee, grienke, pettite, nova. That’s still very strong rotation right there.
Pettitte is probably going to retire. and nova stats aftr the 5th inning are awful. nova should be a long reliver.
I think the Braves spent a lot trying to make something happen this year. I think you’ll see them unload a bit and not pick up big contracts in the 1st year of a new manager.
The Cardinals would love Greinke, but as mentioned by someone previously, he does have the anxiety issues. Two things that would not make St. Louis a buyer:
1) Pujols is going to cost a fortune and they will re-sign him for a long term deal
2) The Cardinals already have one expensive pitcher, Kyle Lo(h)se, that exploded in their face, I doubt they are going to throw down that kind of money ($10+ mil per year) on Greinke.
Remember the braves also have some bad contracts. Like lowe, mcouth, and that asian pither. Plus I think they will foucus more on offsesne more that pitching. They’re stacked when it comes to pitching.
I don’t think there is any way the Royals trade Zack to the Cardinals. How many trades have these two done in the past? Any possible deal would start at the minimum with Rasmus if even possible to begin with.
The cardinals have no good prospects outside of rasmus, and Shelly. Besides they are foucused on resigning pujols.
Cox?
“Shelly”? Who is that?
And how is Rasmus a prospect? Ugh.
The Royals tried to pry Gardner away from NY over the offseason but they settled for Rick Ankiel. Personally, I was hoping they would get Gardner and would be open to seeing him play in KC’s horrendous pasture. DeJesus is all they have out there, and Brett could actually leadoff in KC. Seems like a fit, and if Soria is also thrown in, Hughes would have to come to KC too. But Soria, if not Billy Butler, is the most untouchable guy the Royals have.
Billy is far from untouchable we have an overload of talent that can play 1B…
LOL get out of here… Grienke and Soria… You want an ace and one the best closers in basebal… Keep dreaming!l
the rangers seem like a logical fit.
agreed. As do the Brewers…
Maybe some combo of Holland, Perez, and Scheppers and Beltre. (even though they have have a lot of LHP’s in the organization).
The Brewers could trade Lawrie, Odorizzi, Jeffress, and Cain for example…
The Reds could trade Mesoraco, Sappelt, and Hamilton.
The Dodgers could send over Trayvon Robinson and Dee Gordon
The Rockies could trade Wilin Rosario, Tyler Matzek, and Fowler.
The Nationals might have a decent package if they trade Norris, Storen, and Hood.
The Cubs, Brett Jackson, Chris Archer, and Colvin.
The Yankees, Montero and Betances
The Mets, Armando Rodriguez, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Tejada, and Martinez.
Just speculating.
Sorry unless he comes back to his 09 form I belive Brett Jackson Archer and Colvin is a little much for two years of expensive talent. Try Colvin, Lee, and Cashner.
I’d consider dealing Rosario, Friedrich, and Fowler if I were the Rox, but NOT Matzek. I wouldn’t even be real keen on dealing Rosario, but I guess you gotta do what you gotta do.
If the Royals would go for that deal of Robinson and Gordon for Greinke, I would make it, but several things stand in the way. One, Frank McCourt cannot afford Greinke’s salary and two, with Rafael Furcal and his bad back, we need to keep Gordon around. If I was wearing Ned Colletti’s toupee, I would think that Kemp and either one of these young arms – Rubby De La Rosa, Allen Webster and Aaron Miller might get Dayton Moore interested.
Definetly agree with you.
Matt Kemp and Allen Webster would make me certainly happy.
“One, Frank McCourt cannot afford Greinke’s salary”
Yes he can but the Dodgers cannot afford to purge the remaining system and take the contract.
The Rangers gave up their top prospect for Cliff Lee, I would think they go hard after Lee. I cant see them trading more prospects away for a SP.
Greinke is the most absurd pitcher in the big leagues. He’s like a video game. His fastball is easily mid-90s, sometimes upper. But then he has big loopy breaking balls that go as far down as 65 mph. When he first came up, I saw him throw in the 50s from time to time. He doesn’t get as cute nowadays, but he’s frustrating and confusing for batters.
I totally agree. I saw him pitch in a AA or AAA All Star game in Rancho Cucumungo and he was awesome there too. He only pitched a little, but dang you could tell he was heads and shoulders above just about anyone there…
You should see him in MVP Baseball 2005. He has a mid 90s fastball with a 58 mph curve. It’s ridiculous.
The scary thing is, he had a curve just like that when he came up (different from his curve now), but one of the pitching coaches back then (there was like 5 in two years before McClure got here) told him not to pitch it anymore.
Greatest baseball videogame. And Jake Peavy was straightup filthy in that game too with his hard slider, 4seam FB, nasty 2 seamer, and low 70s curve.
Beckett too. MLB The Show is a great baseball video game too.
One bone to pick though:
That link for Greinke’s lively fastball has nothing to do with movement on the fastball. It’s only about velocity. He throws hard, sure. But you were talking about life.
Hey being a Cubs fan does anyone know what kind of package they would put together? I was thinking something along the lines of a Lee, J.Jackson,Wells , Cashner, and possibly a throw in like McNutt to grab someone else from them.
Please give your opinoin I`m stuck on this one.
Try with Castro or colvin as ur center piece.
completley forgot about Colvin thanks, so a Colvin, J.Jackson, Lee, Guyer?
That may work. They would probs want one of ur rookie relife pithers. Or it may be cheaper just to give up Castro and one or two other prospects. I doubt they would move Castro though.
Castro has more value than Grienke…. 20yr old shortstop that batted over .300 in his first pro season don’t grow on trees. Not to say that aces are always available either, but Castro-types almost never ever show up. In fact, i can’t think of the last time it did happen. Perhaps Elvis Andrus in the Teixeria deal, but he wasn’t the centerpiece and had no mlb experience.
The question is who has the prospects to bring back either Greinke and Soria. The NYY have Ivan Nova, Eduardo Nunez, Jesus Montero. They might be willing to add in Joba Chamberlain if Soria is involved.Gardner and his .380 OBP is not going anywhere, nor is Phil Hughes who might be as good as Greinke next year.So you guys who know your teams, say who your prospects are, and the Royals will probably take the best package. The unfortunate part of this is that the Royals, like the Pirates, are constantly rebuilding to no effect.As much as I like being a Yanks fan, I feel bad for the teams who have low payroll, and none of the smarts of the Tampa Bay Rays.
I’m telling you, it’s all about Dellin Betances. Put Montero in there as I said and the Royals get more than enough.
Betances has only 3 games experience above A ball. But if the Royals want him, and the Yanks think that Greinke will be good in NY, I think they’ll let him go with Montero.
But, should they be set on Cliff Lee, and Lee signs with them, then all their efforts should logically go to Joakim Soria and not Greinke.
supposedly…But they are the Yankees and they can really have as many good arms as they want.
There’s a payroll limit with the Yanks, too. It’s just a way higher limit than for other teams. Adding more than one pitcher will be tough for the Yanks, unless they can also subtract AJ Burnett and his 16 million a year.
But I don’t see anyone taking AJ off the Yankees hands.
Vazquez and others are heading in to FA
Taken into account. Vazquez, Nick Johnson, and what we may save on Derek Jeter’s next contract. Likely less than what we would need to pay Cliff Lee.
The rest of the potential losses are either low rent guys or late season acquisitions whose partial salaries don’t mean much.
It’s a squeeze to fit Lee in, and more so if they want to find a catcher or DH for 2011.
The Yankees actually balked at including Betances in the Lee deal. I’ve also heard Cashman and Damon Oppenheimer talk about Betances. The Yankees are pretty high on this guy. And ZG would never succeed in NY with his disorder.
Become Royals GM Span. I’ll become Yanks GM, because Cashman would tak that trade. We can haggle over Grienke, but Monty and Betances are our twwo best prospects, and ZG has that disorder that would hopefully keep him out of NY.
Reds got this one…Cueto, Pick From Yonder Alonso or Juan Francisco, Cozart, Ondrusek, and Pick from Todd Frazier or Dave Sappelt for Greinke and/or Soria
Y would the reds trade for grienke? They are stacked with pitching like volquez, cueto, arroyo, wood, Bailey. I even heard a rumor that they may trade volquez. I would say trade some pitching and yondser to the dodgers for Matt kemp. It would probs look like either cueto or volzque and either wood or Bailey and Alonso for kemp and martin. Or like Alonso and volquez for kemp.
A) That is WAY too much to pay for two years of Greinke before he leaves in FA
B) We are stuck with Coco for 2011 to close
Greinke is not going to perform well outside of his comfort zone. I believe he is on record as not interested in New York, and I can’t see him going to Chicago either. Start the conversation with Milwaukee, Minnesota, and San Diego … maybe Tampa Bay (he’s from Florida iirc) and he can probably thrive in a second-tier market.
The yankees wouldn’t trade Montero for Greinke. I think if anything they’ll do something around brackman or w/e. I wouldn’t want Greinke cause I don’t think he’ll do well lol. I wouldn’t mind trading Joba though. I wish they traded him before for Halladay or w/e LOL. They can resign KErry Wood and get that Beniot guy who is a free agent after the season he had with the Rays.
They were willing to give up Montero to get Cliff Lee, and Lee could’ve turned out to be only a rental. So I don’t see them eliminating Montero from Greinke trade talks, unless they, like you, just don’t like him. In which case they won’t give up anything of value for him.
I hate the idea of more Kerry Wood. Wood is a walks machine. Only Ian Kinsler’s stupidity saved him from a deadly situation last night. Wood should be gone after this year.
Now check out Joba’s second half numbers, and you’ll see his value. Having a bad first half can happen to anyone. Without Wood (and I dearly hope they are without Wood) the Yanks need to add a reliever, not subtract one.
A rental really? do you think the yankees would let cliff lee go if they had got him LOL. They know they would and can lock him up thats why they’d give him up. Greinke isn’t a Lee and with that issuse he has I wouldn’t even want him honestly. I don’t think Kerry wood has been that bad. I didnt see him pitch last night though lol wasn’t paying attention that inning.
The Yanks lose players, too. In 2003 Clemens and Pettitte walked away; in 2004 Jon Leiber walked away.
At the time those losses were devastating. Clemens and Pettitte weren’t around to stop the 2004 Red Sox, and Leiber’s loss led to the Yankees trying to squeeze the last bits of juice out of Kevin Brown and Jaret Wright.
We sign free agents and we lose them. So Lee might’ve ended up being a rental. But the plus/minus on the balance sheet for having him potentially pitch the team to another World Series title was enough to make the Yanks risk giving up Montero.
He had essentially said he was going to test free agency after the season no matter who he was traded to. So yeah it would have been a rental and then they would have had to pay for him again in free agency.
I hope they don’t. Look at Khalil Greene, was a good shortstop for the Padres in a small market place. Then went to St. Louis, a significantly bigger market than San Diego. That’s where his baseball career ended. If the Yankees trade for Grienke, the same thing will happen, and that’s something Cashman has got to take into account. And if SPAN_demonium_is_back responds to this don’t give me any of that “You can only assume, but you never know” stuff. You know damn well it will happen.
Im sure the Yankees focus on the pitcher after the season is Cliff Lee. I don’t see them going for Greinke anyway.
Besides the Yankees can have a much younger rotation in a few years with CC, and Lee being the veterans(in a case where the Yanks get Lee)and Hughes, Betances, and Manny Banuelos being the young guns(and A.J. being jettisoned.). Lee should be a top priority anyway, with that, that’s 3 spots taken care of depending on Andy’s choice. Other than that, Adam Warren, Ivan Nova and Joba should fight for rotation spots.
Yea after the season they have CC/AJ/Hughes locked as starters. I don’t see Andy coming back. So yea Signing Lee we’ll have 4 starters and then they’ll have Jobe be the 5th or Nova or sign someone like Lilly or Webb.
Let’s not compare Zack Greinke to Khalil Greene. Greinke won a Cy Young Award. Greene was a mediocre player for San Diego, in only 2 of his 6 seasons did he have an OBP over .300. How about this, find some actual EVIDENCE (not guesses) that show ANY proof whatsoever that Greinke can’t pitch in a big market. I’ll wait (and I’ll be waiting for a long long time because there isn’t any evidence whatsoever)… Greinke is a fantastic pitcher and will be a fantastic pitcher anywhere.
In San Diego, as long as you have 25 HR, doesen’t matter if you have a low OBP, judging by their offense the last couple years. And I wasn’t even comparing them. That social anxiety disorder is a red flag.
Khalil Greene hit more than 15 home runs only once in his career. Also, I’m pretty sure a post saying how Khalil Greene couldn’t handle a bigger market thus Greinke can’t handle NY is comparing them. Why is the social anxiety disorder an issue? I’m not a doctor, and I doubt you are, and for either of us to guess about how it will impact Greinke is a foolish endeavor.
I should also point out that Joey Votto has done pretty damn well for himself in a pennant race despite his own depression/social anxiety issues.
I’m Surprised that Toronto Hasn’t come up yet. They have stated publicly that they are willing to trade top prospects, could use a “true ace” and Greinke would still be away from “the big spotlight”
They would probably have to trade Drabek and Stewart, and likely another prospect, but I think it would be a deal that would work for both teams, and for Greinke as well…
I thought of the Jays, I just figure that if they’re going to make a big splash, it wouldn’t be for pitching, where they’re already overloaded. I get the idea of trading two unproven guys in Drabek and Stewart for one proven guy in Greinke, but if you’re going to trade them both, why not land a star first basemen or right fielder or something, as the pitching should be good regardless.
The jays could use a Prince Fielder, I agree – but they could also use a big arm like Greinke. Drabek and Stewart seem like younger versions of what the jays already have #2/3 guys fighting to be #1 (I guess I should add the caveat: plus Morrow’s ace potential). At least that’s how i see it.
I like Greinke quite a bit and think he’d be a nice fit in toronto, but my impression is that AA wants to bring in more “hard nose” players – not the impression ZG gives me…so who knows? What do i know?
I’d stay away from Greinke. Aside from his amazing 2009 season, he’s been nothing but an above average #2 starter and the Jays have enough of those.
It would take something like Drabek + Snider and that’s just detrimental to the Jays. I’d inquire, and ultimitely pass.
Your a foo!l Zack is an ACE and one of the best pitchers in baseball…Put him on a team that can get him some run support and he will 20 or more…he had an avg. year because he is tired of going out there knowing even if he holds the other team to one run he still is not going to get a win…
And cecil.
Drabek and stewart? span says montero plus….
dont people remember what halladay got in trade?
grienke got one more year left in his contract but its still a pricy contract….
grienke coming off a so-so year at 2 year 27…. i think Doc had better value with one year left coming off doc being doc for 6-7 straight years
I imagine they jays would stay out of it. 2 years of Grienke over the 8+ of Drabek and Stewart looks worse considering they are playeing in the AL east, they did finish with 85 wins but i doubt Greinke would close the 10 win gap they need to just copete for a playoff spot.
Also remember the jays were scouting the Royals at the end of the season, coincidentally the games Greinke was pitching; They want two pitchers in return in a trade, in which we have a plethora of.
I would think every team will take a look at Greinke if it become obvious that the Royals want to move him. Listening to offers is different though, basically they’re saying they need to be bowled to move him since they don’t have to trade him now. I wouldn’t mind seeing the Cubs take a look, maybe guys like Jackson, Archer, Carpenter, Lee (not all of them) would be considered by the Royals. What do the Royals need most in their farm system? I’d think the Cubs could afford to part with Lee and a couple of the young pitchers, plus fill out a trade with lesser prospects. Maybe that wouldn’t be enough for the Royals. I’d like to see the Cubs hold on to Brett Jackson, he’s going to be necessary for them as Soriano and Byrd age, Fukudome leaves and if Colvin doesn’t improve his .OBP. The Cubs system isn’t great but it’s good enough and deep enough to pull off a trade for Greinke.
As soon as I saw the headline of this post I wanted to immediately send out a request of “Please don’t include the Yankees in any trade scenario for Greinke”……and then I saw this:
“I bet the Yankees get into this one, maybe a trade like Phil huges, chamberlian, Gardner, montero for grienke and soria”.
Look Greinke is a great pitcher but let’s really keep things in perspect. He’s had 1 really outstanding year in 2009. He had one decent year in 2008. He had one ok year in 2010. However, look at the regression he had in 210.
He had comparable IP in 2009 (229) and 2010 (220). In 2010 he had a 4.17 ERA (2.00 runs above 2009), 181 ko (down 61 from 2009) and all the other numbers were slightly or dramaticaly worse than in 2009 (KO/9, H/9 and BB/KO ratio.
He certainly is still a good pitcher, but is he still elite?
His 1st half/2nd half splits are alarming:
-3.71 ERA to 4.72 ERA
-1.16 whip to 1.34 whip
-4.59 KO/BB rate to 2.42 KO/BB rate
Oddly enough he gave up twice as many HRS in the 1st half than the 2nd but still had a higher ERA in the 2nd half.
In 2010 he did NOT face the Yankees at all in 2010. He was great against the Rays (1.80 ERA in 15 IP) and ok against the Red Sox (3.55 in 12 IP). However, he was rocked against several AL Central teams.
Indians (5.32 ERA in 23.2 IP)
Tigers (4.91 ERA in 18.1 IP)
Twins (8.18 ERA in 22 IP)
W. Sox (4.50 ERA in 16 IP)
That a total of 13 starts vs AL Central teams and you really have to wonder if the familiarity of his AL Central teams has caught up with him?
I think some of the proposed trade proposals were completely crazy but I do agree that any trade for Greinke will probably cost something along the lines of Jesus Montero, Joba Chamberlain, Dellin Betances and maybe a lesser prospect. That’s a whole lot to pay for a guy w/ 1 elite year in the past 3 years, a well publicized anxiety disorder, and who is owed 2/$27 mil?
That, IMO, is way too much to give up for someone you know is going to be a HUGE question mark under the bright lights and intense media of NY. Greinke himself I think said he wouldn’t want to play in a city like NY.
A team like the Nationals who said they are ready to spend big might be a good place for him though.
Greinke is one of the best out there… He is just tired of playing for a team who gives him no run support…Have you ever been on a losing team for while because I have and I know that when we were always losing I just got fed up with it all… Put Zack on a team that gets him some run support and a team that knows how to win and see what happens…
Thanks for the great post YanksFanSince78. I like the fact that you looked up facts. And I agree that anyone trading for Greinke would have to be careful what they gave up and what expectations they had.On the other side of ZG’s potential mediocrity is that his numbers against the Red Sox and Rays show he can perform at the highest levels, and see RoyalBlue’s comments above.As for the anxiety disorder, I’m no psychologist, but I think only a psychologist can have an opinion about Greinke’s disorder and bright lights. A couple of catchers have had to quit because they couldn’t throw the ball back to the mound. But that had nothing to do with the city in which they were trying to throw.Just as it is possible that ZG would melt down in NY, it is possible that the external environment is no factor whatsoever. Only an expert could say which is likely, and anyone trading for Greinke is going to insist on having experts examine his records first.
Still can’t see any market with an over the top, passionate fan base and high media coverage taking a chance on Greinke. Trading top prospects would be far too much of a risk for teams like the Phillies, Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, etc. to take a risk. He needs to go somewhere he feels comfortable, and that’s why St. Louis makes the most sense in my mind.
Just for the lol’s, can you imagine a deal centered around Albert Pujols and Zack Greinke / Joakim Soria swapping places? That would be insane.
The Royals have no interest in Montero.
Why would they? They already are loaded with 1B prospects (which is what Montero is supposed to translate too in the Bigs). Even if he sticks at catcher the Royals already have Myers who is supposed to be a Brian McCann type player in a few years. I doubt the Yanks get Greinke unless the offer Hughes, which won’t happen. Zack will not be in the Bronx as a Yankee….ever.
pssssst- There’sa thing called a DH.
I hope the Yanks aren’t looking at Greinke for reasons I’ve stated but if Montero + others were put on the table I can’t see the Royals saying no to him. Deal may have to be tweeked but I’m sure Montero would center the deal. Can’t see Hughes being in a deal though. The idea is to improve the 5 man rotation not simply upgrade one spot. So far for 2011 and 2012 the Yanks have CC, AJ and Hughes under contract/control. They want to add to it which would be the point of acquiring Greinke. Add to it and push Hughes and AJ further down the depth chart. REgardless, it’s probably a moot point and I would put it at less than a 15% chance of happening.
Believe me, I know all about the DH. The Royals have had a logjam at 1B/DH for the last few seasons. With Butler and Kia still under contract and in the bigs, plus Hosmer (who hopefully can learn OF) and Clint Robinson, even though he isn’t an every day player, in the minors both projected at 1B, I don’t see the Royals trading their best player (and biggest trading chip) for a position that the organization is already loaded at.
The Royals have a ton of DH types. The Yankees could look at it to improve the rotation for years to come, but that anxiety disorder is a red flag. Montero could stay at Catcher for a year or two, just not stay there. He could also learn to play 1st to give Tex a day off.
Hopefully. Whatever is needed to keep our top prospects in NY.
I bet the Royals keep Zack for 2011 mostly to see how all of our prospects do with another year in the minors to marinate. Keep in mind, KC’s talent is all very young (thanks to GMDM drafting top HS talent in the early rounds the last few years). It’s easy to call a 20-21 year old a top prospect but we really don’t know exactly what to expect until a few years down the line: hence – keeping Greinke another year.
Greinke and Butler for Perez, Scheppers, Chris Davis and Beltre.
Texas gets their young workhorse ace (who I think they would extend further than two years) and a very good 1B/DH who is right handed like they desire. I think Texas is aggresive enough with enough money to make it work and low key enough for Greinke to do well.
KC would simply add to their already crazy good farm.
Grienke would fit perfectly in Texas. It’s a family atmosphere there, and I think Jon Daniels, Nolan Ryan, and Chuck Greenberg could handle him well. I don’t know about Engel Beltre though. This guy has a Beltran ceiling, and someone like David Murphy could become good trade bait because of his strong year wih the bat.
Oh, please, Jed, pick up the phone. Greinke in San Diego would be fantastic! A youngish veteran to front the staff in a nice climate with respectful fans and a youngish, very communicative manager and pitching coach-how could he not work out in San Diego?
The Royals say they are “listening” which doesn’t necessarily mean they are “dealing.”
That will take them Castro, Tate, B prospect, and someone on the big league level(San Diego doesent have a strong farm system).
I can see Texas going after him aggressively if they lose Cliff Lee.
Don’t see the Yankees paying the price in prospects for him because of the social anxiety disorder. They already had one Ed Whitson. They don’t want another.
If KC would take Mets prospects, the Mets would give them anything they wanted for him though. I could totally see them discount the anxiety issue.
The trade that could be interesting is Greinke & Dejesus for Rasmus and prospects.
Yanks won’t trade Hughes for Greinke. They might trade him for Chamberlain,Pena,and Curtis.
Joba and his 5.00 ERA has lost all of his potential trade value. The guy is garbage. Maybe 2 years ago…
Dayton Moore laughs you off the phone. But I don’t want Grienke in NY. I have nothing but great things to say about him but his disorder is a red flag. I’d love to see Texas go after him. They’re not neccessarily a big market team, but they have a family atmosphere down there.
Greinke has a limited no-trade clause and the Yankees are one of the teams on it
Does he really?? Music to my ears! Grienke would never go to NY!
I wrote above, but will repeat here about the anxiety disorder:
I’m no psychologist, but I think only a psychologist can have an opinion about Greinke’s disorder and bright lights. A couple of catchers have had to quit because they couldn’t throw the ball back to the mound. But that had nothing to do with the city in which they were trying to throw.Just as it is possible that ZG would melt down in NY, it is possible that the external environment is no factor whatsoever. Only an expert could say which is likely, and anyone trading for Greinke is going to insist on having experts examine his records first.
Sorry to be redundant, but the off-the-cuff judgment that the guy is going to blow up in NY seems common-sense sound, while being medically unsound without more information.
Big trade here:
Yankees trade: Phil huges, joba chamberlian, nova, montero, betances
royals trade: greinke, soria, butler(used as a dh)
Never happen
Correct. Phil Hughes and Joba are not as good as Greinke and Soria – but there’s not enough of a collective gain to send the Royals every known good Yankee prospect to get Billy Butler.
I could see Greinke exercising his no-trade clause on teams that are big markets if he knows his mental health would suffer. If he wants to go to a team that will contend it leaves a few options: Texas (Nolan Ryan connection is a plus), MN (inter-divisional is a minus), Milwaukee and Atlanta. Being a MN fan, I would love this possibility. I think the MN fanbase would be super-supportive of a guy like Greinke. They don’t call it “Minnesota Nice” for nothing. I wonder what the Royals would want from a inter-divisional opponent. Would a deal including Aaron Hicks be enough? Too much?
I had not thought of Milwaukee as a landing spot, but that would be a good one. Milwaukeeans are Minnesota Nice too. And oh, man, do they need the pitching.
I would think that the Royals would want at least 1 close to ML ready pitcher to go with whatever else they’d get. Problem is, if the pitcher looked to be a good one, why would the other team make the trade?
the Angels would be stupid not to try and inquire on grienke… They have kaz at the end ( we all know what kaz is like) and pienero coming off the books in 2012.. so that means 2 pitching spots are open and the free agent market for 2012 isnt that great so why not try to make a deal here now.. and if you have to move kaz to the bullpen or maybe throw pienero to the royals like they did saunders for haren…. Idk all im saying the angels could get a trade like this done because they dont need to try and trade for fielder they would be much better off spending money on dunn or konerko which would take fielders same position…. All it is though is Angels would be dumb and not to try and at least see what they would have to give for grienke and fielder both maybe
Glad to see most of the proposals look vaguely insane. Look people, this is a top 20 pitcher in all of baseball entering his prime now. If you want to get a GREAT player like Greinke at below market value you need to give up value. Let’s not see any more proposals that consist of some combination of (1) a team’s #6 prospect, (2) a prospect whose value has fallen off a cliff, (3) a guy in his arbitration years or later that fills a Royals “need” and (4) prospects who are nearly Greinke’s age and have yet to see the majors. Those offers are not going to happen. Period. End of conversation.Reasonable offers consist of one of a team’s top 3 prospects, another from the top 7 or so (obviously this all depends on the strength of a system and how good the top guy is) and either a lower upside, sure thing prospect or a young unproven high-upside player or two. So if you’re a Yankee fan: Jesus Montero, Hector Noesi and Ivan Nova makes sense; or, if not Montero, than something like: Manny Banuelos, Austin Romine, David Adams and Eduardo Sosa. If you’re a Sox fan than maybe an Ellsbury, Casey Kelly package is reasonable.Remember, 3 months of Cliff Lee (a MUCH older pitcher) netted the Mariners a choice of Jesus Montero or Justin Smoak (consensus top 10 prospects in all of baseball and each team’s #1) along with two or three other prospects. Regardless of if Lee is a better pitcher today, 2 years of the 6 year younger Greinke is a FAR more valuable asset. One year of Javier Vazquez, a significantly lesser pitcher than Greinke and Lee, was worth Arodys Vizcaino (the Yankees’ #2 prospect at the time), Mike Dunn (a useful lefty reliever) and Melky Cabrera (the Yankees World Series starting CF). Two years of Erik Bedard was worth top OF prospect Adam Jones and FOUR pitchers (Chris Tillman, George Sherrill, Tony Butler, Kameron Mickolio). Jones was Seattle’s #1 prospect the year before the deal and Butler was the #4 – Tillman was their #3 prospect at the time of the deal. That’s the sort of haul Greinke is worth as he’s a better pitcher today than Bedard was at the time of the deal.
great response. Terrific historical anecdotes. Post more often.
Thanks 5Th Starter, I appreciate the kind words
This is what I posted on a Reds board on this matter
If I’m the Reds I don’t trade Bruce, Stubbs, Votto, Chapman, or Wood. I wouldn’t really want to move Mesoraco either since catchers with his offensive/defensive potential are difficult to find.
Some package of Cueto, Volquez, Leake, Frazier, Alonso, Fransisco, and others.
I offer Cueto, Fransisco, Heisey and Yorman for Greinke and Alex Gordon.
KC is going to have to run someone out in Greinke’s place and Cueto is still under team control and is still relatively cheap. He is coming off a good year as well.
Fransisco gives them a power bat, which they could definitely use, and is a 3B for now, but will likely end up in LF.
Heisey gives them someone to be a 4th OF that could step up if DeJesus is traded early.
Yorman would be the prize of the deal and could swing the trade to the Royals very easily.
Even if Yorman is a bust though I think the Royals would be getting solid value back for the two.
The Reds would get Greinke, who would stay in a smaller major league city because of his anxioty issues I think this is a must for him. With Cincy fans and a good team behind him he could be a resignable ace level arm. Greinke would obviously be the Reds number 1 arm and is ace level which would fill one of the Reds major needs.
Gordon would be a risk/reward type addition. I think he needs a change of scenery to get on track. I’d use him as a utility type player unless he was tearing the cover off the ball. With no other trades he’d be part of a platoon with Gomes in LF and Rolen’s caddy at 3B.
The Reds need someone to be a number 1, they have a good number of 2’s and 3’s and next year are likely going to have one of the strongest staffs in the majors as the kids develop.
I think a bigger need for them is to get a right handed hitting LF that can hit cleanup like Kemp, but I wouldn’t be upset if they got a ace like Greinke either….and be thrilled if they got both for a two year run at the World Series championship.
Take out Yorman of that package going to KC. He is absolutely untouchable at 18 years old. His ceiling is way too high to trade at his age. Swap Cueto with Volquez. If we trade any SP it will be Volquez or Bailey.
Why do you want Alex Gordon? How is he any better than what we have already? He is basically Heisey with a higher salary.
If you want a player like Greinke you must be prepared to give up something of value. This isn’t a game where one controls both sides of the trade. Yes Yorman Rodriguez has a very high ceiling and has just started to show just how high it really is. However if the Reds want to win now they have to give up something that has a bright future. I highly doubt you get a player like Greinke for players that have minimal to no future with the Reds.
Bailey has shown really nothing at the major league level for a entire season, he’s had flashes of 5-10 games but on the whole has been very inconsistent, I can’t see him being a centerpiece for a elite arm with two years remaining under team control.
Volquez is coming off a major arm injury and while I would be open to dealing him and could see a team like the Royals liking him because of his upside It think they’d prefer the more projectable Cueto. I think Cueto has a lower ceiling then Volquez, but he’s more likely to reach it of the two.
both would hurt the Reds to give them up, perfect world Bailey would be the one they’d deal because of his inconsistency.
Heisey and Fransisco really have no place starting for the Reds, though both especially Heisey are valuable bench players. Fransisco though has power to spare and its something KC could use. He also plays positions that KC has open, unlike Alonso.
Yorman would be the key to the deal, you have to give up something of value for a player like Greinke. They aren’t going to deal him for Cueto, Volquez or Bailey and Fransisco.
Yorman is young but still hasn’t shown he can control the strike zone so he is not without risk, he has a high ceiling but unless he learns to take a walk he is likely not to reach it.
As for Gordon, the Reds need someone that can play 3B for Rolen and be a platoon bat with Gomes baring another trade. Heisey can’t play 3B, and I don’t believe Fransisco can either.
I think Gordon has talent and just needs a change of scenery to reach it, its a risk/reward hunch.
If Fransisco and Bailey/Volquez were enough to get Greinke, he would already be in a different uniform.
If you want a player like Greinke you must be prepared to give up something of value. This isn’t a game where one controls both sides of the trade. Yes Yorman Rodriguez has a very high ceiling and has just started to show just how high it really is. However if the Reds want to win now they have to give up something that has a bright future. I highly doubt you get a player like Greinke for players that have minimal to no future with the Reds.
Bailey has shown really nothing at the major league level for a entire season, he’s had flashes of 5-10 games but on the whole has been very inconsistent, I can’t see him being a centerpiece for a elite arm with two years remaining under team control.
Volquez is coming off a major arm injury and while I would be open to dealing him and could see a team like the Royals liking him because of his upside It think they’d prefer the more projectable Cueto. I think Cueto has a lower ceiling then Volquez, but he’s more likely to reach it of the two.
both would hurt the Reds to give them up, perfect world Bailey would be the one they’d deal because of his inconsistency.
Heisey and Fransisco really have no place starting for the Reds, though both especially Heisey are valuable bench players. Fransisco though has power to spare and its something KC could use. He also plays positions that KC has open, unlike Alonso.
Yorman would be the key to the deal, you have to give up something of value for a player like Greinke. They aren’t going to deal him for Cueto, Volquez or Bailey and Fransisco.
Yorman is young but still hasn’t shown he can control the strike zone so he is not without risk, he has a high ceiling but unless he learns to take a walk he is likely not to reach it.
As for Gordon, the Reds need someone that can play 3B for Rolen and be a platoon bat with Gomes baring another trade. Heisey can’t play 3B, and I don’t believe Fransisco can either.
I think Gordon has talent and just needs a change of scenery to reach it, its a risk/reward hunch.
If Fransisco and Bailey/Volquez were enough to get Greinke, he would already be in a different uniform.
His arm is likely set to fall off – best to trade him now.
His arm is likely set to fall off – best to trade him now.
woopy…. Joba sucks and Pena and Curtis are whattava …. Yanks will pay $$$ for Lee over dealing players for Greinke … that’s just my feeling
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And I agree w/ regards to paying for a FA vs trading away multiple prospects. Signing Lee is the best thing the Yanks could do for the farm because it protects them. Try and sign Lee and bring back Pettite. Go with CC, Lee, Pettite, Hughes and AJ. Let Nova, Noesi, Phelps, Mitchell, Betances, Brackman and Banuelos distinguish themselves in AA/AAA and slowly integrate the best into the mlb team or use to acquire other needs. I can’t see Pettite pitching in 2012 and maybe AJ will rebound in 2011 and make a trade possibility seem more realistic.
I like the points you bring up. But Pettitte I think isn’t coming back. Lee should be a top priority, and other pitchers like Joba, Nova, or Adam Warren should fight for a rotation spot. A.J. hopefully realizes what a bad season he had, and go on some workout regimen that players do in the offseason, and hopefully rebounds next year.
woopy…. Joba sucks and Pena and Curtis are whattava …. Yanks will pay $$$ for Lee over dealing players for Greinke … that’s just my feeling
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And I agree w/ regards to paying for a FA vs trading away multiple prospects. Signing Lee is the best thing the Yanks could do for the farm because it protects them. Try and sign Lee and bring back Pettite. Go with CC, Lee, Pettite, Hughes and AJ. Let Nova, Noesi, Phelps, Mitchell, Betances, Brackman and Banuelos distinguish themselves in AA/AAA and slowly integrate the best into the mlb team or use to acquire other needs. I can’t see Pettite pitching in 2012 and maybe AJ will rebound in 2011 and make a trade possibility seem more realistic.
All of you guys are blowing this way out of proportion… As a fan of the Royals, I live in the KC area, go to many many games… I’ve gone to the Royals Fanfest in January and I’ve seen Greinke sign autographs and talk in front of thousand of fans… I’ve stayed after at the stadium and got autographs from him…
-Greinke is quite a pitcher, he got a little distracted this year because we are in a rebuilding phase and we were out of the race in May…. But he is a special special pitcher.. The ’09 season was amazing as I attended almost every home game of Greinke’s season…
-I’ll tell you what, Greinke hasnt had any Social Anxiety Disorder problems in a couple years… He takes medicine now, and quite frankly he hasnt had any problems lately… He had a pretty big offseason as he got married and all… So I think the 2010 season was just a pedestrian season for Greinke, he was just kinda going through the motions..
-Finally, Greinke gets tagged with the Social Anxiety Problems no matter what… and it gets pretty old, because he isnt having problems anymore… I think he’d be pretty good in a Large Market Situation… He likes being in games, being in the race and having something to actually pitch for…
Phillies probably give up three top prospects for him, then replenish the farm by trading Oswalt for two lesser prospects. Then decide, mid-season, they need more pitching and deal 3 more prospects for Mark Buehrle. (2 days later White Sox shift gears and become “buyers”)
The Phillies have no “3 top prospects”. Dominic Brown will be in the ML next year, and the Phillies system is practically depleeted. In a few years, I would trade Brad Lidge, Roy Oswalt, and(don’t ridicule me)Shane Victorino for top prospects, along with anybody else that can be traded. It looks like it doesent make sense to trade Victorino, but Jonathan Singleton would be best fit to move into CF or LF, along with netting a couple outfield prospects in other trades.
It would be the tits if the Nats traded for him ! and acquired Lee I mean we do have the richest owners in baseball
Andrew McCutchen for Greinke straight up?
NO!!!!
Milwaukee has the best chances with a package of Weeks and Odorizzi and maybe Rogers and a propest
Milwaukee has the best chances with a package of Weeks and Odorizzi and maybe Rogers and a propest