The Yankees, winners of 40 American League pennants, take on the Rangers, a team trying to win its first, in the ALCS tonight. The storylines are compelling: Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira return to Texas and Cliff Lee takes on the team that nearly acquired him a few months ago and figures to bid aggressively on him this winter.
But those stories are secondary to the right to represent the Junior Circuit in the World Series, so it's time to make some predictions…
Who will win the ALCS?
Click here to vote and here to view the results.
Go Rangers! Just because it’s better for baseball that someone else wins. Not to mention their lefty dominating pitching staff.
Lee/Wilson……CC/Pettitte…..?
Both have a good lefty rotation, but I want to give the edge to the Rangers. I think they have the upper hand in a 7 game series.
I understand where you’re coming from in that Lee is the best of the four and Wilson had a great year…..But you’re talking about last year’s ALCS MVP and Andy Pettitte, and we know his postseason resume….
I think you’re right in that if this series goes seven games the Rangers have the upperhand….But CC is basically guaranteed game five regardless of what he does against Wilson tonight…Games 2 and 4 are a toss up (though I’d take Hughes’ and what he has done against Texas than Colby and his tenacity for throwing a million pitches) and Game 1 is obviously a toss up.
If Texas wins tonight, and assuming Lee wins Game 3, they have the upperhand. If Texas loses tonight, I just don’t see it happening for them.
You have a good argument. We know how successful CC is pitching on short rest (see Brewers end of season run), but there are still some question marks regarding the rest of the Yankees staff. As much as I hate the Yankees (being a Boston fan it’s not hard) they still have one of the best if they’re all on their game. I think the series is really going to hinge on if Wilson can stay dominant and Burnett is the pitcher the Yankees signed and not the one they’re overpaying.
I didn’t think MLBTradeRumors posted things like this mainly because it encouraged flame wars. Not to mention the bias’ – every fan of a team in the AL East outside the Yankees will vote Texas, every team who WANTS the Rangers to win will vote Texas. Polls like this are pretty pointless IMO.
The poll might as well just say “Which team do you like better?”
Or maybe it will spark some healthy debate as to why people picked the team that they did
Rangers. I think Cj Wilson will outpitch Sabathia. Imo the long break will hurt the yankees which is why they will lose the series and it will end up Rangers vs Phillies. Lee vs Halladay game 1!!!
There will be genuine panic in New York if the Yankees lose the first game and Lee has yet to pitch.
When CJ Wilson is on, he is on, and better than Sabathia…but which CJ Will show up?
Based on what? Not to mention, when you walk that many hitters, you’re rarely “on” so to suggest CJ, in his rookie season as a starter and second overall start of his playoff career, is a bigger postseason threat than a ALCS MVP and World Series champion with better numbers, is downright insane.
Don’t get carried away. I don’t know why you think Wilson is a better pitcher and bigger postseason threat than CC Sabathia, last year’s ALCS MVP.
To be entirely fair, the concept of a “postseason threat” in terms of pitchers is something you absolutely cannot count on. Last year’s ALCS MVP was 2007’s ALCS goat. Meanwhile, 2007’s ALCS MVP stunk up the last two years’ worth of postseason starts he made. Prior postseason performance does not dictate future postseason performance.
I’d say Sabathia’s six innings of three run ball against the Twins is a lot more relevant than his 16 innings of 2 run ball in last year’s ALCS. He’ll be solid, but counting on Sabathia to reproduce last year’s results is not something you can absolutely count on, especially considering last year’s ALCS involved him starting game 1 in NYS as opposed to Arlington.
Likely the one that already pitched 3 times against the Yankees this year. 14.1 innings (283 pitches!) in 3 starts, 18 hits, worked over for 9 walks and 2 HBP and giving up 9 earned runs. Wilson is a very good pitcher, the Yankees just have a lineup specifically built to exploit his biggest weakness – control. This sets up yet another weakness for the Yankees to exploit – Texas middle relief. Beyond Lee, the Yankees have the advantage on the mound in every other game IMO (the argument can be made either way for game 4, but IF decent-to-good AJ shows up it is clearly advantage Yanks). That, coupled with the fact the their offense is so much deeper than Texas has to give the Yanks the advantage in this series. The Rangers could very well win, they just have less room for error.
I’m picking the Rangers in 7. With all due respect to Pettitte and CJ, you have to give the edge in the games they’ll pitch to Lee and CC. Lewis and Hughes is a pretty even matchup (check the peripheral stats if you don’t believe me), so I’m thinking the teams split those two games. That boils it down to game 4, Burnett and Hunter
I really think the key to the series is AJ Burnett. It seems like he’s either really good, or really bad. If he’s really good, then I think the Rangers are in trouble and they Yanks take it in 6. If he’s really bad, then the Yanks better start sweating. I think Hunter and Holland can give the Rangers 7 solid innings between the two of them (read: 7 innings, 4 runs allowed). If Burnett is bad, and you have to stretch your bullpen out, I think that should be enough to win that game
But, as a Rangers fan, I’m obviously picking my team to win the series. So I think Lee wins game 7, and we play the Phillies for the title
Hate to say it, but I think the Yankees will be CJ Wilson’s daddy.
Lol, I think it’ll be more of CC being the Rangers daddy than anything. But that’s ok…b/c Cliff Lee will return the favor at some point
Except Wilson and CC each go twice (unless there is a sweep for the Yankees since the other way would have CC on short rest anyway) so Lee won’t be returning any favors if Wilson is bad…
And he should probably improve on those three starts vs. New York this season if he’s not going to get owned.
Or if the series goes 7, then you have to face him in the do or die game. Not far fetched to imagine it going to 7 games, either. CC is the only dominant pitcher in their rotation. I like Pettitte and Hughes, but I don’t think they’re THAT good to where you pencil them in for W’s like you do w/ guys like CC and Lee. Lewis/Hughes will be an interesting matchup
Point taken on CJ needing to improve on his start against the Yankees this year though. He definitely does. But he has had a really good season, and is coming off a strong start against the Rays in the last series. It’s not out of the question to see him adjust and pitch well tonight
Keep in mind that the umpires have more of an impact on games than the players do… and the umpires have always blown key calls in favor of the Yankees.
I’m still fuming about the Jose Offerman phantom tag.
I thought that was Jose Offerman…You talking about the ’99 ALCS?
You’re right. I corrected it.
Greg Golson totally feels your pain.
Remember last year when Lackey threw a fastball literally right down the middle of the strike zone and was called a ball? Good times.
Remember that double that Mauer hit that was called foul in the ALCS last year?
I try not to 😛
I don’t, he didn’t play in the ALCS last year…
ALDS, I mean.
the yankees better hope it doesnt get to a game 7 have Mr. Lee pitch. with that being said i like the yankees in six.
Yankees will win in 5… All of CC, Hughes and Pettitte will get the W.. thats right Lee will lose. Yankees have been able to score runs off of him, minus Game 1 last year. Burnett will be good, but not good enough.. Then Yankees win Game 5 to clinch with CC.
All numbers from 2010 seem to point to the Yankees.
Rangers OPS against NYY – .660
NYY OPS against Rangers – .757
The Yankees OPS’d higher against LHP, since the Yanks have Sabathia/Pettitte and the Rangers have Lee/Wilson.
I’m rooting for the underdog though.
Of course everyone one’s picking the Rangers. Everyone picked the Twins in the ALDS. That looked really swell… For about 5 innings. The Yankees of course have to prove to everyone else who their messing with, a team that has clinched and won everything more than any other team, of course against a team(even with Lee)that had just won it’s first postseason series.
Yankees in 5, or 6.
Everyone is picking the Rangers? On what planet are you from? Not very many people are. Vegas has them as the underdog. And ESPN and MLB.com experts are mostly (like at least 70%) are picking the Yankees.
I think the Series will be 1-1 going to Ny. Then Lee wins. 2-1 rangers. AJ shows up 2-2. CJ vs. CC (call it a split one game for each pitcher) Yankees go into arlington 3-2. Rangers take both in Arlington. (Lee and Colby win) Rangers win in 7.
–> I think it boils down to this… If you say that CJ and CC split their games against each other for a 1-1 heads us. And then you say AJ wins his start. And then Andy and Colby each win 1 and lose 1. THEN if you take Cliff and give him 2 wins… well that means the Rangers win the series fellas.
I’m curious to see what ya’ll think about this scenario. Historically, this is the most plausible scenario. If any one pitcher wins his two starts (aka CC, CJ, or Cliff, Or Andy for that matter) History tells us the team with that pitcher wins 8 out 10 times in a seven game series.
I don’t think the scenario I just named is outrageous at all. In fact, I think it goes just the way I said.
See Baseball Reference.com
I just don’t see Wilson doing well at all against the Yankees. The Yanks eat pitchers like him for dinner and then feast on shaky middle relief for dessert. Even if he manages to limit the walks he is going to go deeeep into counts all night and not last more than 5-6 innings.
I don’t know why, but I absolutely loved your analogy.
Pay attention that Colby Lewis, though he strikes out alot of batters, also walks alotof batters, just like Wilson. That’s not a very good sign if you’re facing a patient team, but predictions are just predictions.
I wonder if these Yankee fans can read. If you read my post I said that CJ and Colby would each lose one and win one. Hardly a wild prediction on how good those guys are and certainly not claiming they will be dominate.
Please read my post more carefully. CJ CC Colby Andy each win one lose one
yankees are the favorites by the experts.
If the Yankees do win this series in less than 7 games and only have to face Cliff Lee once in Game 3, then I’d like to thank the Rays for beating the Rangers in Game 4.
Not really. Even if Lee was pitching games 1 and 5, the Rangers STILL would need to win two other games he’s not starting to advance. It really doesn’t give the Yankees any sort of tangible statistical advantage whatsoever.
I”ll go with Yankees in 6.
But it wouldn’t surprise me if Texas won the series (Well a sweep would surprise me, on either side). But I think the series goes at least 6 games.
Then again I did not expect a sweep in the Yankees/Twins series. My prediction was Yankees in 4, but I was stunned to see Minnesota lose the first 2 at home
Let’s hope for a good series Rangers fans. Good luck to you.
Yankees in 5.
Don’t get me wrong, I’d absolutely love to see them toppled. But the metrics just don’t indicate it being likely. With the poll running 50/50, it looks like alot of others are voting with hearts instead of heads.
CC-Andy just overpowers Lee. And the Yankee bats are way more consistent than Texas. Throw in the huge disparity between Mariano and a rookie closer in Texas, and it’s hard to find Texas’ advantage.
I hope I’m wrong…
Texas’ advantage is home field. Sabathia’s numbers all decline outside of Yankee Stadium and Pettitte ended the regular season on an absolutely abysmal note.
This one’s going to come down to two things:
Is Pettitte back from his injury, or was game two of the ALDS a result of him playing in a pitcher’s park?
Will Josh Hamilton show up?
This series is a lot closer than a lot of folks seem to think. If the Rangers can split at home, they could very well bring this one to seven. If they bring it to seven, I like their chances. Game two is going to be the big question to me, it’s a must win for the Yankees, in my opinion.
dont forget AJ burnette is pitching game 4 ! lol
pretty even, nut I think the Yankees have the upper hand particularly on the mound. I understand backing up Lee for the New York games but you run the risk of momentum barreling you down. The series will be good, pains me to say, Yankees in 6.
Oh my god, the split is almost even. That’s incredible!
The most interesting scenario by far is Cliff Lee beating the Yankees in Game 7. That would revitalize a lot of banter about the Mariners bailing on what the Yankees front office thought was a done deal, and will put enormous pressure on the Yankees front office to sign Lee to prevent a repeat occurrence in 2011, causing them to overpay Lee even by Yankee standards. If the Rangers would proceed to win the World Series, then that would foster a greater level of interest in his staying in Texas, further driving the Yankees bid still higher.
Having typed that, Rivera remains, as always, the X factor that no other playoff team can match.
And if they miss out on Lee (which I think they will, especially if the Rangers win this series), they’ll just throw a ton of money at Ted Lilly and Victor Martinez.
You know what? I think the running game will also come into play. That said, as this series gets closer, and closer to atarting, I’m starting get very suspicious of those hand signs like the Claw or the Antlers the Rangers do…
Split right down the middle. 802 vs. 802. Wow.
At the conclusion of the poll, the MLBTRers may be forced to do a manual hand recount, eliminating duplicate votes received from the same IP address and sorting through all of the hanging Chads.