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Odds & Ends: Gammons, Braves, Hurdle, Marlins

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As we hope for Wilson and Cain rather than clouds and rain in San Francisco tonight, here are a few news items…

  • In an appearance on WEEI's The Big Show this afternoon, Peter Gammons predicted that Cliff Lee will re-sign with Texas and Victor Martinez will sign a four- or five-year contract with Detroit since "I don't think anyone else is going to give him four or five years."  Gammons also reiterated that the Red Sox have a big interest in Carl Crawford this winter.  WEEI's Kirk Minihane has a partial transcript here.
  • The Braves have signed Beau Torbert to a minor league contract, according to the Sioux Falls Fighting Pheasants, Torbert's American Association team.  Torbert, a 17th-round pick of the Astros in 2004, was Baseball America's Independent Player Of The Year for 2010.
  • The Pirates haven't interviewed a managerial candidate in two weeks, but FOXSports.com's Tracy Ringolsby believes the Bucs are waiting to speak to Clint Hurdle, who is "a serious consideration" for the job.  Pittsburgh has to wait until the World Series is over to interview Hurdle, the former Rockies manager and current Rangers hitting coach. 
  • The Marlins hope to settle on a manager by next week, tweets Newsday's Ken Davidoff.  Edwin Rodriguez is "still in the mix" according to Davidoff, which coincides with news earlier this week that the Fish were "leaning toward" keeping their current manager.
  • Pedro Martinez is "looking for motivation to come back," tweets Enrique Rojas of ESPN.  Martinez is training with the Dominican League's Licey Tigers, whose pitching coach is Pedro's brother (and former major league pitcher) Ramon.  
  • Andy MacPhail tells MASN.com's Steve Melewski that the Orioles aren't likely to re-sign any of their pending free agents before the deadline.
  • Tom Gage of the Detroit News implies that Jim Thome could be the Tigers' backup plan if the team fails to sign any bigger-name free agents.
  • We had heard that John Gibbons wasn't a managerial candidate in New York, but Jack Curry of the YES Network reports that the Mets have already contacted other teams for infomation about the Royals bench coach.  Curry says the Mets haven't contacted Gibbons himself, but will probably do so once Sandy Alderson officially takes over as GM. (All Twitter links)
  • Hoping your team can unload a bad contract this winter, or at least trade one for another team's problem?  ESPNNewYork.com's Adam Rubin has a rundown of each team's most unwieldly financial commitments.

Jose Guillen Tied To HGH Investigation

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Jose Guillen has been linked to a federal investigation involving shipments of human growth hormone sent to Guillen's wife, reports Michael S. Schmidt of the New York Times.  Guillen's involvement was brought to the attention of Major League Baseball before the playoffs began, and after the commissioner's office conducted an investigation of its own into the matter, it was suggested to the Giants that Guillen be left off of San Francisco's postseason roster.  His absence obviously hasn't hurt the club thus far; in fact, as Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle points out in a tweet, Guillen "might've played over [Cody] Ross."

The Giants acquired Guillen from the Royals in August.  In 139 plate appearances, the outfielder contributed a .266/.317/.375 line to San Francisco's push to the NL West crown.  Guillen wasn't likely to draw much interest on the free agent market this winter given his declining production, increasingly terrible defense and history of attitude problems, but the spectre of this investgation might drop his chances of a 2011 contract from slim to none.    

Padres Sign Edwin Moreno

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The Padres have signed 17-year-old Dominican outfielder Edwin Moreno, reports Baseball America's Ben Badler.  The contract is worth $500K.

Moreno was described as a "left-handed outfielder with pop and a strong body" by Blake Bentley on his list of the top 10 Dominican prospects leading up to the opening of the international signing deadline last July 2.  Moreno wasn't signed, however, due to failing a drug test administered to 40 prospects who registered with Major League Baseball last May.  As Badler notes, Moreno won't face a 50-game suspension since he wasn't signed to a contract when he failed his test.

 

Free Agent Stock Watch: Jon Rauch

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Twins fans feared the worst when Joe Nathan underwent Tommy John surgery last spring, but Jon Rauch's ability to close games was a big reason why Minnesota won the AL Central.  Though Rauch lost the closing role to Matt Capps in July, the 6'11" right-hander still went 21-for-25 in save opportunities, posted a 3.12 ERA in 59 appearances and had an impressive 3.29 K/BB ratio.

Let's see how Rauch stacks up on the free agent market this winter…

The Pros

  • Rauch is a Type B free agent, so a team can sign him without losing a compensatory draft pick.
  • Rauch might be eager to get away from Target Field.  His ERA in 30 home games last season was 4.45, compared to just a 1.84 ERA in 29 road games.
  • He's pretty solid against hitters on both sides of the plate.  He's obviously better against right-handed hitters (holding them to a .238/.280/.372 career slash line) but Rauch has also done well against left-handed bats — .255/.328/.417.

The Cons

  • Rauch lost the stopper's job both last year and in Arizona in 2009.  Teams looking for a closer could be worried by the fact that Rauch has yet to show he can handle the job for a full season.
  • Rauch tends to make things interesting at the end of games.  His H/9 rate was a career-high 9.5 last season.
  • After averaging 80.5 appearances per season from 2006 to 2009, Rauch pitched in just 59 games last year due to a variety of minor injuries.  He turned 32 last month.

The Verdict

Rauch is more likely to be signed as a set-up man than as a closer, and his solid career track record makes him a candidate for a multi-year deal in the neighborhood of two years and $7MM.  Teams looking for closing help this winter include the Diamondbacks, White Sox, Angels and Rays, so Rauch could get a look from those clubs to be at least part of a closing committee.  Rauch could also be signed by a team like Atlanta or Washington as an experienced backup option should their young closers (Jonny Venters and Drew Storen, respectively) falter.   

It's possible the Twins offer Rauch salary arbitration.  He'll get a raise from his $2.9MM salary last season, but if he can't find more than that on the open market, he could accept arbitration and then work out a contract to stay in the Twin Cities.  The Twins would be giving up the sandwich pick they'd receive if Rauch signed elsewhere, but with so many free agent relievers in their bullpen, Minnesota will still be in line for other compensation picks.  The Twins themselves are one of the clubs looking for closing depth if Nathan isn't fully recovered or back in form after his surgery.

Amateur Signing Bonuses: Brewers

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Next up in our series looking at each team's spending on amateur prospects, the Brewers…

  1. Rickie Weeks, $3.6MM (2003)
  2. Ben Sheets, $2.45MM (1999)
  3. Ryan Braun, $2.45MM (2005)
  4. Prince Fielder, $2.4MM (2002)
  5. Mark Rogers, $2.2MM (2004)

The Brewers had a lot of high draft picks in the early-aughts, and they spent accordingly. Weeks was the second overall pick in 2003 after a season at Southern University that was straight out of a video game: .500/.619/.987 with 46 walks and 17 strikeouts in 50 games. He made his big league debut later that year but didn't stick until 2005. He finally put together a full, health season in 2010, hitting .269/.366/.464 with 29 homers.

Sheets, the tenth overall pick in '99, was really the first young player to come up and help get the Brewers back to respectability. He was an All Star as a rookie in 2001, and overall made four trips to the Midsummer Classic in his eight years with the team. Injuries derailed him starting in 2005, but he was always dominant before leaving as a free agent after 2008: 3.72 ERA, 7.6 K/9, and 2.0 BB/9 in 221 starts.

Braun was the fifth overall pick in 2005 and the third college third baseman drafted (behind Alex Gordon and Ryan Zimmerman), but he's since moved to left fielder. His Rookie of the Year campaign in 2007 featured a .324/.370/.634 batting line and 34 homers, and overall he's a .307/.364/.554 hitter in his four big league seasons.

High school first basemen aren't drafted in the first round all that often, but Milwaukee made an exemption for Fielder, who the chosen seventh overall in '02. He reached the big leagues three years later, and is a career .279/.385/.535 hitter in five-plus seasons. Fielder has a 50 homer season and two top-four finishes in the MVP voting to his credit.

Rogers was the fifth overall selection in 2004, but a series of arm injuries and setbacks kept him on the shelf from June 2006 through the 2008 season. He returned in 2009 and performed well (1.67 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 4.0 BB/9 in 64.2 innings), then reached the big leagues this past September. Rogers struck out 11 and allowed just five baserunners and two runs in ten innings, putting himself in prime position to break camp with the team next season.

The Brewers have gotten a ton of return on these investments, with Rogers even coming back from major injuries to produce at the big league level. They haven't spent much on international free agents, but that should change after kick-starting their Latin American program earlier this year.

Mets Rumors: Sanchez, Gibbons, Alderson

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Sandy Alderson will be officially introduced as the Mets' new general manager on Friday afternoon, according to a team press release.  The new GM is already making calls to set up his front office; Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that Alderson has reached out to Paul DePodesta and J.P. Ricciardi to strengthen the Mets staff. Both worked under Alderson in Oakland and went on to become MLB GMs. Here are the rest of the updates on the Mets:

  • Alderson's contract is for four years, reports Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com.
  • The Mets and agent Arn Tellem, who represents Hisanori Takahashi, have received permission from MLB and the MLBPA to push back the deadline for signing Takahashi, probably for about a week, according to David Waldstein of the New York Times. Adam Rubin reported earlier today that the sides were considering extending the deadline.
  • The Mets signed 16-year-old third baseman Elvis Sanchez out of the Dominican Republic, according to Ben Badler of Baseball America.
  • Royals bench coach John Gibbons will not interview for the Mets' managerial opening, according to Andy Martino of the New York Daily News (on Twitter). Phillies bench coach Pete Mackanin could become a candidate, according to Martino. 
  • Alderson "almost certainly will hire a low-profile manager … whose main focus will be to carry out the vision of the new general manager without drama," according to Sherman. 
  • Gibbons, Clint Hurdle, DeMarlo Hale, Bob Melvin, Terry Collins, Don Wakamatsu and Chip Hale are candidates to manager the Mets, according to Dan Martin and Joel Sherman of the Post. Joe Torre, Wally Backman and Bobby Valentine are longshots to manage the team.
  • Friends of Alderson say he will look for an experienced manager, according to Sherman.
  • A's special advisor Grady Fuson, who worked with Alderson in Oakland and San Diego, told Martin that Alderson will be prepared at all times. "He'll read every game report from the minors every night. He’ll know every prospect by name, height and birthday," Fuson said. "He’ll know the top 50 guys in the draft. He’ll have his hands on everything and won’t be blindsided by anything.”

Official Elias Rankings

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MLBTR has obtained the official Elias rankings for the upcoming offseason. The list below includes all ranked free agents, including those who have already signed, those who say they'll retire and those whose options will likely be picked up.

Once the regular season ended, the Elias Sports Bureau took all players over the 2009-10 period, divided them into five groups for each league, and ranked them based on various statistics.  Each player was labeled a Type A, B, or none.  Those designations and the possible accompanying arbitration offers determine draft pick compensation (click here for a refresher).

The numbers beside the players' names represent their rankings. If teams sign more than one Type A free agent, one team gets a top compensation pick and other teams lose out. The team losing the highest-ranked free agent obtains the best pick the signing team can offer and other teams fall in line behind the team that loses the top-ranked player.

Type A

Bronson Arroyo — 80.033 – club option
Grant Balfour — 72.923
Adrian Beltre — 81.633 – player option
Carl Crawford — 85.128
Jorge de la Rosa — 74.422
Scott Downs — 76.352
Adam Dunn — 74.167
Frank Francisco — 73.171
Jason Frasor — 73.383
Vladimir Guerrero — 80.000 – mutual option
Matt Guerrier — 79.569
Ramon Hernandez — 74.517
Derek Jeter — 91.304
Paul Konerko — 78.095
Jason Kubel — 80.000 – club option
Cliff Lee — 87.500
Derrek Lee — 74.167
Ted Lilly — 80.116
Victor Martinez — 87.054
Bengie Molina — 72.321
Magglio Ordonez — 77.436
Carl Pavano — 75.568
Andy Pettitte — 80.492
A.J. Pierzynski — 80.804
Manny Ramirez — 76.154
Arthur Rhodes — 72.229
Mariano Rivera — 88.830
Takashi Saito — 69.657
Rafael Soriano — 91.799
Miguel Tejada — 76.720
Matt Thornton — 86.214 – club option exercised
Billy Wagner — 83.313
Jayson Werth — 91.807
Dan Wheeler — 74.673 – club option

Type B

Rod Barajas — 59.459
Joaquin Benoit — 66.879
Lance Berkman — 64.762 – club option declined
John Buck — 67.411
Orlando Cabrera — 66.667
Randy Choate — 62.460
Kevin Correia — 57.591
Jesse Crain — 60.657
Johnny Damon — 74.359
Octavio Dotel — 66.473
Chad Durbin — 57.471
David Eckstein — 65.801
Mark Ellis — 74.405 – club option
Pedro Feliciano — 66.855
Brian Fuentes — 67.055
Jon Garland — 71.947 – mutual option
Alex Gonzalez — 61.376 – club option
Kevin Gregg — 66.967 – club option
Brad Hawpe — 70.769
Aaron Heilman — 58.420
Trevor Hoffman — 62.829 – club option
Orlando Hudson — 70.238
Aubrey Huff — 60.000
Omar Infante — 62.338 – club option
Brandon Inge — 67.347
Hiroki Kuroda — 68.152
Gerald Laird — 60.045
Adam LaRoche — 61.667 – mutual option
Felipe Lopez – 67.532 -  club option
Mike Lowell — 62.585
Hideki Matsui — 73.333
Kevin Millwood — 58.617
Miguel Olivo — 65.251 – mutual option
David Ortiz — 75.000 – club option
Vicente Padilla — 58.168
Carlos Pena — 64.762
Jhonny Peralta — 62.585 – club option
Scott Podsednik — 69.880 – club option
J.J. Putz — 62.213
Chad Qualls — 56.168
Aramis Ramirez — 63.187 – player option
Jon Rauch — 69.088
Jose Reyes — 62.434 – club option
Hisanori Takahashi — 58.650
Yorvit Torrealba — 63.900 – mutual option
Koji Uehara — 68.010
Juan Uribe — 65.608
Jason Varitek — 64.732
Javier Vazquez — 71.970
Kerry Wood — 62.778 – club option declined

Eddie Bajek reverse-engineered the Elias rankings for MLBTR and was right on every free agent except for Derrek Lee, Adam Dunn and Mark Ellis, who were all on the bubble at their respective positions.

Greg Dobbs Elects Free Agency

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Greg Dobbs has elected free agency, according to MLB.com's Todd Zolecki (on Twitter). The 32-year-old hit just .196/.251/.331 this year and the Phillies designated him for assignment twice during the season. Though Dobbs has less than six years of service time and could have been retained through arbitration, the Phillies were comfortable letting him go.

They signed Dobbs to a two-year $2.5MM deal after he hit .284/.331/.467 in 598 plate appearances from 2007-08, mostly against right-handed pitching. Back in 2008, Dobbs set the franchise record for pinch hits in a season with 22.

Odds & Ends: Wood, Dunn, Valentine, Hoover

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Links for Thursday, before the Rangers try to even out the World Series…

  • The Cubs would welcome Kerry Wood back to Chicago if they have enough money, according to Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.com. The Yankees declined Wood's 2011 option yesterday, so he'll be free to sign with the team of his choice soon after the World Series.
  • Nationals manager Jim Riggleman says he wants Adam Dunn to re-sign in Washington, but points out that "there's going to be some pretty good talent out there" if Dunn leaves, according to Ben Goessling of MASNSports (on Twitter).
  • Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel hears that the Brewers are open to hiring managerial candidates Bob Melvin and Joey Cora, though they’ll likely talk to Bobby Valentine about a potential deal (Twitter link).
  • The Phillies outrighted Paul Hoover off of their 40-man roster.
  • Former Braves and Orioles pitching coach Leo Mazzone told Gary Williams and Steve Phillips of SIRIUS XM radio that he’d have interest in becoming the pitching coach for the Yankees or Mets.

Non-Tender Candidate: Jack Cust

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Jack Cust isn’t the home run threat he once was, so even in an offseason when the A's are prioritizing power, he doesn’t have any assurances that an offer of arbitration will come his way. The A’s non-tendered him last winter after a third consecutive season of 25-plus home runs. This year, his power dropped off, so there’s a real possibility that GM Billy Beane non-tenders Cust once again.

Cust, 32 in January, hit just 13 homers this year, but still managed to reach base. He posted a robust .395 on base average and batted .272. That figure is deceptive, though; Cust’s career-high average was inflated by his unsustainable .387 average on balls in play.

Cust is a power hitter who no longer hits for power and he doesn’t have much to fall back on other than his walks. He strikes out too much, doesn’t inspire confidence on defense (he played just 16 games in the outfield this year) and is working off of a $2.65MM base salary. 

Offering Cust arbitration could cost $3-4MM, but it seems more likely that the A’s will non-tender him and try to renegotiate a contract worth less guaranteed money if they have interest in keeping him. The A’s would risk losing Cust to another team if they non-tender him, but they saved money when they took that chance a year ago. 

Conor Jackson and Kevin Kouzmanoff are also among Oakland's non-tender candidates, but we've already voted on them. It's time to see what you think the A's will do with Cust. Click here to vote and here to view the results.

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