After the season, the Reds will face a decision on Bronson Arroyo that will essentially be worth at least $9MM. Arroyo's $11MM option could increase to $13MM based on innings pitched, but the right-hander tells Hal McCoy of the Daily Dayton News that he thinks the team will exercise the option rather than pay the $2MM buyout.
"They have to pick up my option, no matter what, even if they planned to trade me,” Arroyo said. “They have to pick it up. If they let me walk for free ($2 million), they’d be giving me a huge lottery ticket."
Arroyo hints that while he wouldn't expect to earn Derek Lowe money ($15MM annually) if he becomes a free agent, his numbers (215.2 IP, 3.88 ERA) are probably good enough that teams would be willing to match or exceed the price Cincinnati would have to pay to keep him. When MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith looked at the possibility of Arroyo reaching free agency, he agreed, suggesting the 33-year-old could earn a contract worth $20MM over two years. Still, Arroyo doesn't sound like he expects to hit the open market, indicating that he'd prefer to remain in Cincinnati anyway.
"I’d like to be here for a few more years," said Arroyo. "We have a young club with the opportunity for success down the road and I’m comfortable in my surroundings and I enjoy the city. I’d like to be here for at least three more, but it all depends on what they want."
They’d be giving him a “bigger” lottery ticket if they pick him up, therefore I don’t get his comments. But I think he will remain a Red one way or another. I say if they decline his option and he really wants to be on the Reds, he may take a pay cut of 7-8 Mil…But I say they pick his option up and sign Jesse Crain, trade for Brandon League, keep Gomes, and extend Votto. SS I’m not so sure about.
why would they trade for brandon league?
Going to Arb again, a very good relief pitcher. Had a very good year and he throws hard, puts up decent numbers, doesn’t walk many batters, and throws strikes. Doesn’t strike many guys out but is a darn good reliever and can be had for not a huge price.
what you just described is a dime a dozen reliever. i don’t know why they have to target League specifically.
You know what you are going to get with League. Why not trade for him?
idk because his career era is like 4 and for a reliever, that isn’t good. maybe thats why i wouldn’t trade for him, even if he is cheap. besides, even if he does throw hard, who gives a flaming donkey nut if he still doesn’t strike people out (career 6.8K/9 inning clip) Quality > Quantity
Well he is going to the NL, yes a hitters ballpark but nothing tells me that he wont be as good next season as he was this season. I don’t know, I was just bringing it up but anything could happen. 20 dollars says we have 350 disagreements this off-season.
il raise you 50 dollars on 500 disagreements.
(see, we can’t even agree on how many disagreements we will have).
501 including tonight and now the money disagrement. So that’s now 502. Got it. Deal
I’d have to disagree with you this time Span. After watching League for years in Toronto, you don’t really know what you’re getting. This year, however, he has been fairly solid.
He has great stuff, but awful command and used to scare me when he came out of the pen.
I think he scared you because he looks like a surfer/computer genius/tattoo artist.
You are way off on Arroyo. I assume you are suggesting $7-8M cut off of $11M, leaving a $3-4M salary. A guy who has put up a 3.97 ERA with 200+ innings every season for 5 seasons with his most recent campaign being successful makes a lot more than $4M on the open market. The $9M figure is about right.
He’s also a guy striking out 5 batters per 9 innings, a fly ball pitcher, and has had a FIP over 4.50 for the last 5 years.
You are essentially supporting my point with your stats (which I looked up also), in that being “a guy striking out 5 batters per 9 innings, a fly ball pitcher, and has had a FIP over 4.50 for the last 5 years” is even more impressive when you consider half his games are played in what is considered a hitters’ ballpark (in the past 5 seasons in question, the GABP has been #3, #2, #4, #6, #8 in HR factor).
You call it impressive, I call it having a ~.260 BABIP over the last 2 years.
Pitching to contact and giving up 29 HRs a season, luckily having an extremely low BABIP against him.
What you’re not taking into consideration is the fact that his groundball rate has increased at the same time his babip has decreased. Coincidence? Maybe, maybe not. The point is that he is a slightly above average, dependable starter that is a lock for 200 innings. Those guys don’t grow on trees and get paid fairly well.
How much do you think he gets on the open market?
15+ wins for 3 years in a row in a hitter’s ball park with a majority of the time playing on crappy teams that can’t score runs. That’s not luck, that’s called good.
He doesn’t have the best stuff in the world, but he gets people out. It’s called location and consistency, of which he has plenty. Who cares if he gives up 29 HRs a season? If his ERA is below 4.00 (which it has been for 3 our of 5 years he’s been in Cincy), he’s likely giving up a majority on solo shots.
No…I was saying he may accept 7-8 Million from the Reds. Missunderstanding on your part.
“he may take a pay cut of 7-8 Mil”
You mistyped, I didn’t misunderstand anything. If that’s what you meant, you would have said a pay cut TO $7-8M, which is still kind of ridiculous to say that Cincinnati should decline an option for essentially $9M and risk him signing elsewhere to save $1M. And it’s all really moot because, as the poster below pointed out, the option is actually for $13M.
Okay I Mistyped. But now you know what I mean.
So its 11MM, I’d decline it and see what happens. If he really wants to stay there than he’ll stay there but 11 is too much in my opinion.
He has already said that he isn’t going to take a home team discount. So just give him the 11 million this year and get rid of Harrang and we still have a ton of money.
I agree with Bronson. They do have to pick up his option. With all of their young arms and all of the promise they bring, they are going to do what most young starters do-be inconsistent. He has been an excellent Red, the heart and soul of that rotation, a solid, hard-working professional who gives you 200 mostly good innings, with a few gems sprinkled in among the few clunkers. Arroyo knows how to pitch, and completely understands his own strengths and weaknesses. Plus he’s never hurt.
If all of their youngsters work out and prove dominant during the course of next year, you could move him. I wouldn’t though. Every staff needs someone with Arroyo’s skill set. Those innings could be hard to replace on a contending team.
I doubt that its higher then 200 plus innings that Arroyo has this year, and thats a number he’s reached every year he’s been in Cincinnati if I’m not mistaken. So I’d say he’s reached it.
Arroyo does scare me though because his strike out numbers are trending downward and he’s someone that could get crushed if he loses just a tick off his stuff.
On a Reds board there is usually a topic every year about him being finished because he generally has a point each year where he’s getting beaten around every start. Eventually he’s not going to rebound and be near ace level for the rest of the way.
I don’t give him Lowe money, the Braves were foolish to give Lowe Lowe money, and I rather not pick up the 13 million dollar option, but if he’s on the open market a case could be made for him being the number 2 pitcher available.
If I’m the Reds I might kick the tires on Greinke before picking up the option, or seeing if Arroyo will give the Reds a Rolen discount (though he’s previously said he wouldn’t).
However with the talent in the pipe line for Cincinnati it might be wise to just pick up the option and have that be it for Arroyo, perhaps even trade him at the mid-point if the kids are for real. Volquez, Cueto, Leake, Wood, Bailey, Chapman with a few more getting close to give them a shot territory.
For a team like the Reds to stay good, they have to avoid long term high dollar contracts to players that are average.
This is a no-brainer to pick up the option. I would try and see what his thoughts were for a 3 year deal. If he would take a 3 year, 24-26 million dollar deal then I say go ahead and extend him. With his style of pitching it does not wear and tear on his arm.
They are obviously going to listen to offers in case some team gets desperate and overpays big time for him. Other than that he is in the Reds rotation next year.