The Padres are next in our arbitration eligibles series.
- First time: Chris Denorfia, Tony Gwynn, Edward Mujica, Tim Stauffer
- Second time: Mike Adams
- Third time: Ryan Ludwick, Heath Bell, Scott Hairston
Denorfia, Mujica, Stauffer, Adams, and Bell are highly likely to be tendered contracts. Adams and Bell should get noticeable raises, with the latter in line for a salary in the $7MM range. Bell hopes for a three-year deal, though a trade can't be ruled out given the Padres' strong bullpen. Ludwick disappointed after coming over in a deadline day trade, hitting .211/.301/.330 in 239 Padres PAs. Still, it appears he'll be tendered a contract.
Gwynn and Hairston are non-tender candidates. Gwynn hit .204/.304/.287 in 339 plate appearances, missing time due to wrist surgery. Ludwick staying would increase the chances of Hairston going; last month 69% of you predicted a non-tender for Hairston.
Hoyer has given Gwynn’s defense a lot of credit for the team’s success and has said that he sees Venable in right and Ludwick in left in 2011, which bodes well for Young Anthony.
I agree, according to UZR Gwynn was the best outfielder. He’ll get tendered a contract.
Agree with the top 2…Tony Gwynn was (including Petco) pretty much the best defensive outfielder in Baseball this year. No reason to non-tender him despite hitting .204.
I say see ya later Gwynn & Hairston. Gwynn can’t hit – period. You can’t have your everyday CF hitting .204. His offensive ‘skill set’ isn’t what it should be for someone who runs fairly well. He can’t bunt, he strikes out too much, he’s not a great base stealer (although he improved in 2010), and he routinely makes stupid mistakes by being too aggressive on the bases. The only way he sticks is if they find a CF who can hit and Tony can come off the bench.
Hairston has outlived his usefulness. The Padres should let him walk and give Wily Mo Pena a shot as the 4th/5th OF. They are pretty much the same player, and Pena is cheaper.
Don’t be surprised to see Mujica get either non tendered or traded. He gave up WAY too many HR this season, and the Padres have plenty of younger/cheaper options to choose from.
Gwynn vastly improved his bunting in 2010 as well as his base stealing. I would keep Gwynn around as my 5th outfielder. Gwynn would be fine for late inning defensive replacements as well as in pinch running duties. Ludwick needs to go, his game does not play well in Petco. I am making the following players available via trade: Gonz, Bell, Richards [selling high on him], Ludwick and Headley. In return I want Ellsbury, Bard, Rasmus and Doubrant. The Padres should resign Tejada for 3rd base and possibly O. Cabrerra for SS. Blanks or Matt Clark for 1b.
not Clayton Richard
Why not? Doubrant will be his replacement.
I agree with trading Headly if we can upgrade the RBI’s at 3B. Selling Richards now is not necessarily high. I think Richards will make a solid 4th starter with similar stats. Keep him until you have to pay him, then trade him. Matt Clark is still a year maybe 2 away.
I’m OK with keeping Gwynn as a defensive replacement and pinch runner, but not under any other circumstance. Â He should never be anywhere near the every day lineup ever again.
I highly doubt you’ll see the Padres trade for Ellsbury. Â First of all, he’s pretty fragile. Â Secondly, he’s arbitration eligible following the 2011 season. Â If he has another 50+ SB, 100+ R season like he did in 2009, he’s going to cost a fortune. Â They won’t take on that kind of salary risk.
I don’t see the Sox trading Bard. Â It’s more likely they would trade Papelbon and anoint Bard the closer. Â Even more likely, they trade Papelbon, sign Rafael Soriano, and keep Bard as their 8th inning man.
I could see a Bell/Rasmus deal making sense for the Padres and Cardinals. Â The Cards will need a closer when Franklin retires, as he’s said he plans to do. Â The Padres obviously need a bat like Rasmus (although Pet Co might make his lefty bat less effective than we’d like).
I’d be tempted to dangle Headley infront of KT and see if we can package him with a AA or AAA arm for Reynolds. Â I think Reynolds will bounce back next season and hit between .250 and .260, which would put him up close to 40 HR again. Â His righty bat plays well anywhere.
I don’t think we’ve seen enough of Ludwick to make a fair judgement on whether he fits in at Pet Co. Â I know I saw him sting a few balls out of the park. Â We simply don’t have a better option than Ludwick, so failing a trade for someone who can replace him, we need to keep him and see if he bounces back.
Blanks had Tommy John surgery in July, which means he’s probably not going to play much of a role for the Padres in 2011. Â It takes at least a year to come back and play, probably closer to 18 months before you’re at full strength. Â If he comes back quickly, he’ll be in AAA for the remainder of the year. Â Take a look at Denorfia – TJ surgery in 2008, not back to full strength until 2010.
I would caution against ‘selling high’ on Richard. Â There is room for improvement with mechanics and command. Â Plus, he just started learning his slider and curve. Â You don’t give up on young lefties with his type of stuff this early.
I’d be OK with Tejada at third and O Cabrera at short. Â I’ve been begging them to sign Cabrera for two or three years.
I wouldnt mind the Pads signing Orlando Hudson to play 2B
I think Blanks will be back in June, but you are correct that it will likely be for AAA. If he is healthy and swinging he could be back up in August.
Headley and relief for Reynolds is what I have been saying for the last year. I have seen enough of Headley to know who he is. He is good defensively but his RBI total at 3B is killing us.
How about Headley and prospects for Miguel Cabrera and cash… that would make a real difference in the lineup.
the HR’s were an anomally, use the HR’s against him in arb and you still get a reliable reliever for cheap. He is not as likely to give up that many HR’s again.
Hairston is toast. He barely played in August and September, losing time to Denorfia and Cunningham. Personally, I’m not a fan of Ludwick’s play, but I guess they feel there isn’t a better external option at the price he will command. I’d entertain offers for Bell, maybe for a center field option, maybe Peter Bourjous from the Angels? I love Heater, but Mike Adams is more than capable in filling that role.
I’d like for the Rangers to bring him back. He is the perfect fit for the 25th spot on the roster. LFCFRF3BSS2B plus an above average pinch runner.
If used as a versatile defender his deficiencies at the plate can be overlooked. Although he would be a semi expensive 25th man.
Wrong Harriston.
Scott is the goner. Jerry will be brought back….I hope.
Ah… I guess then Willie Bloomquist is the next best option for what I want…
Too bad he seems to think that he is an everyday player.
What would the Padre’s be likely to get if they traded away Bell, and do they think that their set-up guys could take over as that dominant closer?
Mike Adams was pretty dominant this year. Webb and Gregerson can handle 7th and 8th.
If they are lucky they get an A- prospect… more than likely they get 1 B prospect or 2 c+ prospects. Something akin to Bostons 9th best prospect.
One of the other teams top 5 prospects. Likely an A- or B prospect.
One of the other teams top 5 prospects. Likely an A- or B prospect.
Keep the pitchers and Ludwick. Nontender the rest. If you decide to trade Ludwick, fine but he deserves a contract. I don’t see him being a good fit for the Padres’ outfield one way or the other. Maybe trade him for a more athletic outfielder? Or include him in a deal for Reynolds?
Ludwick is more athletic than you’re giving him credit for. He has a pretty good arm and gets good jumps on balls. The Padres have no other option. They need his right handed stick in the order, and I think he’ll play better next season. He put a ton of pressure on himself following the trade, and I think he was out of sorts. Give him an off-season to rest and a full spring with the team and he’ll hit. Moving him would be a mistake. The Padres may want to think about hitting him infront of Adrian next season.
Ludwick’s game does not fit at Petco ———— period.
I agree. Denorfia and Cunningham are better fits. I sure hope Jaff Decker makes it soon, he is the only potential impact hitter in the Padres Farm System at OF that is close to being ready.
We’ll have to agree to disagree. Â I don’t think we’ve seen enough of him. Â There was a ton of pressure on him to protect Adrian and ‘legitimize’ the Padres lineup with some thump. Â He was trying to do too much. Â He’ll get better.
I like ludwick hitting 6th
I think if they can find another power bat for the middle of the order, Ludwick would flourish hitting 3rd (Adrian fourth).
I have pondered whether or not the Dbacks would trade reynolds for headley. The Padres just need an RBI machine besides Adrian.
I’d love to keep Denorfia but I think Gwynn, with his speed and glove, off the the bench is more valuable.
Bye bye Hariston.
Agreed Denorfia was by far one of the most valuable players on the Pads last year. VERY underrated.
They MUST sign Mike Adams. He is my favorite reliever that almost no one knows about. Wicked good stuff, great control, superb K/W ratio, low hits allowed total, and cajones as big as the Padres outfield.
I actually want them to keep every pitcher. I think they can trade the ones they don’t want/need-they are better than what most teams have right now.
Funny thing is.. They have so much bullpen talent that they could trade bell and adams and still be top 5 bullpen. Frieri/Webb/Gregerson/Thatcher/Russell/Perdomo/Mucjica still a good bullben.
They should entertain offers for Adrian/Bell/Adams/Headley/Ludwick and see if anyone gives the Padres a great offer.
Offer Bell a 3 Year $20 contract. This still leaves him tradeable. Offer Adams a 3 year $10 deal.
offer bell 3 years $24 contract and trade to the Angels for Wood and Rivera and the Angels pay 1/2 salary of Rivera, and wait to July and trade AGonso, we can’t afford AGonso or listen offers for AGonso this winter.
You must be an Angels fan.
The Pads have to decide if 2010 was a fluke or if they can seriously make a run in 2011. The way the season ended leads me to believe last year’s first 125 games was more of a fluke than anything else. The team has no power besides Adrian, doesn’t hit for average, and after the Tejada and Ludwick pickups, the benching of Cabrerra and the injury to Gwynn, had absolutely no speed! And that was how they got to first through the first 125 games!
I think the team may have to take a step backwards in 2011 to truly set themselves up for a long run of success.
They could sign Bell to a multi-year deal and trade him if the team collapses by the trade deadline next year. Same for Adams. But with the pitching depth in the bullpen and the minors, I don’t see them spending a ton of money in an area where they have numerous cheap replacements (not as good, but still good).
With Latos, Richards, Stauffer and Luebeke, the rotation looks pretty damn good and cheap as well. If Young wants to come back for an incetive laden contract that would be great, but highly unlikely. Someone will overpay for him with guaranteed dollars.
Catcher is set if they keep the Torrealba/Hundley duo intact.
Venable in right makes senses. Ludwick in left is not perfect, but most likely what they will do because the money will make sense and they will have to spend at 2B and maybe CF or 3B.
I agree with the posters above about Headley. I can’t see him getting much better and a team simply can’t go with no powere or RBI’s at the third base spot if the LF and RF spots don’t produce power as well. Somehow, someway, they need to get 20 HR’s and 85 RBI’s out of the third baseman. Or put Tejada at third, Everth at SS and….
SPEND SOME DOLLARS ON A SECOND BASEMAN AND CENTER FIELDER!!
I don’t know who yet, but that would solve a lot of the offensive issues.
CF and 2B provided close to zero offensive help last year.
Great post. The only thing I disagree with is the team being a fluke. That 125 games extends back into the last 2 months of 2009 and makes for more than 1 full year of .600 baseball. They need a legitimate leadoff guy and 1-2 more power bats.
what about keeping bell until the deadline? remember the twins gave up a top guy (wilson ramos) for matt capps….
denorfia-yes
gwynn-no, terrible hitter, amazing fielder
stauffer-YES!!!
mujica-no, trade?
adams-yes
ludwick-no, i want to see more of cunningham
bell-yes, trade at deadline to desperate team
s. hairston-no, not even close to the scott hairston of early 09 before trade
The problem with trading Bell at the deadline is that the team can’t assume it, which means that they have to plan on spending $7-8 million on Bell and not at a position in greater need.