The Padres' surprising 2010 campaign might ensure that Adrian Gonzalez at least starts next season in San Diego, since the club will want to see if they can capture the same lightning in a bottle in 2011. But if the Padres fall out of contention early (as they were expected to do last year), the simmering Gonzalez trade market will again catch fire.
Don Norcross of the San Diego Union-Tribune recapped the difficulty — or impossibility — that the Padres will have in signing Gonzalez to the expensive, long-term contract that he'll no doubt command when he reaches free agency after the 2011 season. Norcross named three "favorites" and two dark horses as possible homes for Gonzalez come Opening Day 2012, so let's take a closer look at these options…
- The Red Sox. Boston has been at the forefront of Gonzalez rumors for over a year, and there's no question the Sox will be involved in trade talks for the slugger right down to the wire.
- The Giants. Norcross somewhat surprisingly adds them to his favorites list, pointing out that Aubrey Huff could be moved to the outfield (if he's re-signed at all) to accommodate Gonzalez at first base. It's hard to picture San Diego dealing Gonzalez to a division rival, plus San Francisco isn't the kind of big market that could afford A-Gon's future contract. That said, the Giants are rewriting their own history right now in the World Series. They might decide to just go for broke and acquire Gonzalez while their window of contention is open.
- The Angels. As Norcross notes, L.A. is close to home for the San Diego-born Gonzalez, and the Halos will pay the money for top talent. Kendry Morales is relegated to the outfield or the DH spot in Norcross' scenario, but Morales could also be the centerpiece of the Angels' trade package to San Diego.
- The Dodgers. One of the darkhorse contenders depending on if a new owner takes control of the team and wants to make an instant impact. Gonzalez could be in a new uniform well before the Dodgers' ownership situation is settled, so we can probably write off at least one L.A. team.
- The Cubs. Gonzalez himself has shown some interest in playing in Chicago, but the Cubs might be looking to add Adam Dunn to play first base this winter.
Besides these five teams, a number of other clubs can and will arise in the market depending on how this offseason pans out. The White Sox might need first base help if Paul Konerko departs, and could be interested in a long-term answer at first anyway given Konerko's age. Texas might try to undo their infamous Gonzalez/Chris Young for Adam Eaton/Akinori Otsuka swap in 2006 and make a play for the first baseman. Teams like Toronto, Baltimore, Washington or Seattle don't seem like candidates now, but could dive into the free agent market next winter if they think they're close to contention. Even St. Louis could be considered a possibility if they're unable to come to terms on an extension for Albert Pujols.
I guess It wouldn’t be your guys’ job to speculate, but really, I don’t wanna see Adrian anywhere else other than San Diego. He loves it there, and San Diego loves him.
I agree, and I think he will stay there, but I like the idea of him going to the Cubs…I also like him going to the A’s but thats a different story…
If he were going to get traded this off-season, what about something like Brett Jackson and Hak Ju Lee for A-Gon straight up? if thats not enough, the Cubs could add one of their young pitching prospects like McNutt (not Archer) or someone like Cashner maybe but I think thats too much…
A deal with the Cubs is going to be centered around Vitters. The Cubs could have got the deal done last year if they wanted to.
Henry,
I’m sorry if I have to break it to you…BUT AG does not like playing in Petco and he wants to get paid. It’s nothing personal, he does love SD, but he wants to put up MVP numbers and get paid what he feels he’s worth.
Ok, I’m just going to break down 95% of this thread:
-someone saying “oh no there will be dumb Red Sox proposals, all Sox fans are dumb.”
-someone actually making that proposal
-flame war over who’s fans are dumber
-followed by flame war over who’s fans are worse.
-sarcastic comments… some by me.
-flame war over who has the best farm
-Stuff I’m missing.
Now that that’s out of the way, let’s continue with our broadcast.
We interrupt this broadcast. BREAKING NEWS:
The Giants are ROCKING the Rangers. And doing it in the worst way. Yes.
They first clipped off the claws and now they are chopping off the antlers.
How about CJ Wilson not being able to catch a break? Guy has thrown the 2 best games of his life Game 1 ALCS and Game 2 World Series, and not only not getting a much deserved win, but the bullpen allowing all of his base runners to score, making his slash lines look terrible in retrospect.
This is true
National Sports Media (and all fans east of Reno for that matter) phases of coping with Giants success: 1. Denial, 2. Giants are Lucky, 3. (Opposing team failed) 4. Acceptance. I would like to take credit for this, but I heard it on the radio.
But j6takish, you are somewhere in phase 2 or 3, depending upon how you interpret the breaks. But the truth is that the Giants are a better team right now, and they are playing better baseball. The small breaks that are not going the Rangers way are simply amplified because those are the small opportunities that they are getting, but not converting.
Best farm? Royals.
Royals, best minor league system in Baseball history…
I said it.
history?
In the league by far, but not in history. If we were, we’d have a better OF prospect than Derrick Robinson.
We do, Brett Eibner.
Also, I like D-Rob a lot more than most but you have to think about potential players were getting for Greinke.
You don’t have to “think about potential players” at all. You have no idea who those players would be. While everyone would like a Roy Halladay or Erik Bedard-like return, there are also returns like Cliff Lee to Mariners to look at. You have to hope that Dayton Moore is smarter than the GM he’s dealing with.
IDK, lots of former Expos heading for the HOF.
End of the day I think the royals would have the strongest chance to AGon. For as much as the redsox would love to have him I don’t think they have the players who are at least a year away, who are studs as the royals do.
And block Eric Hosmer? Are you crazy?
yep, and they all play at Kaufmann stadium
oh my gosh!!!!!!!!!!! How about Nava, Reddick, Anderson, Rizzo, Kalish, Pimentel, Cameron for A-Gon?
Bostons farm system is not that strong. I would not want anyone of those guys you mentioned in a trade for Adrian. I will give you Adrian and Bell for Ellsbury, Bard and Doubront. In addition, you allow the Cardinals to pick anyone one from your list, and the Padres send them Richard and Ludwick for Rasmus. Padres come out of the deal with Ellsbury, Rasmus, Bard and Doubront and give up Adrian, Bell, Richard, and Ludwick. Boston gets one of the top two or three closers in the game, a potential MVP in Gonzalez. The Cardinals get a up and coming young left handed starting pitcher, an outfielder who has had success to replace Rasmus and maybe a top level shortstop prospect from Boston. Everyone wins.
I was making a joke. Not a real trade proposal.
richard and ludwick for rasmus? and who else sir? the cardinals got rid of ludwick and now their going to trade rasmus to get him back? get real.
I think that is good value for Rasmus but, the Padres could also include
Headley or a prospect. Rasmus wants out of St Louis and the Padres
desparately need an athletic left fielder like Rasmus. I think the two
teams could work something out. Perhaps the trade could be a 3 team deal
with the Red Sox where by the Sox also send Iglasias [SS prospect to the
Cardinals]. I would not say that the Cardinals got “rid of” Ludwick, he was
an extra outfielder.
I think that is good value for Rasmus but, the Padres could also include
Headley or a prospect. Rasmus wants out of St Louis and the Padres
desparately need an athletic left fielder like Rasmus. I think the two
teams could work something out. Perhaps the trade could be a 3 team deal
with the Red Sox where by the Sox also send Iglasias [SS prospect to the
Cardinals]. I would not say that the Cardinals got “rid of” Ludwick, he was
an extra outfielder.
richard and ludwick for rasmus? and who else sir? the cardinals got rid of ludwick and now their going to trade rasmus to get him back? get real.
thats too much good talent leaving Boston dude, maybe 3-4 out of that group lol
Its callled parody, sarcasm, joke, irony.
Lars Anderson, Josh Reddick, Josh Bard, and Jacoby Ellsbury, and Marco Scutaro should get it done
Lars Anderson,Josh Reddick,Daniel Bard,Jacoby Ellsbury, and Marco Scutaro should get it done….no?
How about, Padres had a fabulous season and he’s not leaving.
Because the Padres are cheap and itd be idiotic to let him walk for a pick instead of trading him at some point this offseason or the deadline?
By what measure is San Francisco not “the kind of big market that could afford A-Gon’s future contract”?
Even before the World Series run this year the Giants were a Top 10 team in terms of value and revenue, according to Forbes:
forbes.com/lists/2009/33/baseball-values-09_The-Bu…
The Giants share the nation’s sixth-largest television market (and the 20th-largest market in Sacramento). In recent years the Giants have spent big money on free agents (although not always wisely):
spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=ts76JOioApkb62aMqS…
I doubt Adrian Gonzalez will become a Giant, but it has nothing to do with market size.
It has much more to do with Rowand and Zito. Fortunately, with the rotation locked up for the next couple of years the Giant may be able to survive that.
If the Angels would be willing to include Morales, I make that trade first thing tomorrow morning.
I don’t see why they would…
Morales is young and cheap and AGon is a rental and besides, how much does that even improve the ball club? Can’t be more than a few odd games since Morales was a pretty good player.
I would think any team trading for Gonz would have him sign a long term contract at the time of the deal. Gonzalez is the best overall first baseman in baseball right now.
Why? He doesn’t have any NTC leverage, so he would be a rental in ’11.
Pujols would like to have a word with you…
Pujols is good no doubt, but his numbers would be stunted if he had to play
half of his games at Petco. In addition, both Dodger and San Francisco’s
stadiums are not hitter friendly, while Pujols plays in the band box
division. Once Gonz breaks free of the confines of Petco and the N.L. West
you will see his numbers equate Mr. Pujols. I really would put Adrian right
up there with Pujols.
Ok, I gave you a pass on the Ludwick and Richard for Rasmus idiocy. But as a Padres fan, I cannot go on and let you make all of us look bad. Arian is a great player, a complete player, but he is in NO WAY the best first baseman in baseball, he isn’t even the best first baseman in the NL.
Please stop, the adults are talking
My opinion dude. Other then Pujols, who is better then Adrian? Adrian is
a gold glove; therefore, defensively he is better then anyone in that
category other then Texeria. Offensively, Gonz’s numbers are as good as
any first basemans for away games [not playing at Petco]. Do some research
before you throw the word idiocy out there, my claims are not that far out
there as you say. If Gonz played all of his home games in Philly, he would
easily hit 40+ dingers year in and year out, plus he would hit north of 315
ish. If Gonz had any decent offense around him, he would drive in 120+ Runs
every year. Those numbers put him at the top of the heap and I did forget
about Pujols; however, Gonz is right there with him ————- period.
If Gonz played his home games at Fenway Park or at Yankee Stadium, he would
hit 40+ hr’s there as well. Gonz’s numbers are significantly held back by
Petco Park.
No Adrian is not “right there” with Pujols. He is on the 2nd tier of 1b in the NL. Pujols is by himself (head and shoulders above the rest) of 1b.
Adrian does not hit for the average that Pujols does, and has a tendency to disappear during games. You don’t see Pujols striking out four times in a game against a division rival in a playoff race. As I said before, Adrian is a great player, a complete player, but he is not even close to Pujols.
And after thinking about it, I still stick with the idiocy comment, the two posts you have started about a trade for Rasmus and the A Gonz comments….idiocy
Ok, stay with it, lets see what Adrian does when he is free of the Petco
anchor. You will be eating idiocy for lunch.
I think I will have a roast beef on wheat and a side of fries
Well regarding Adrian, we will get to see who is right within a few years
at the latest. If Gonz plays at Fenway, expect 40+ dingers and 120 RBI
annually with a batting average over 300.
you nuts?
k mo is as good if not better than gonzo.. and younger. He’s under team control for 3 more years for cheap..its not a lock for the halos to re-sign gonzo (if they traded)
He’ll stay cheap for at least one more year, but if he has another big season (not cut short by a freak injury), his salary is gonna skyrocket in arbitration the next 2 years.
I do agree though, the Angels should definitely keep K-Mo. Rather, the Angels should find a way to land A-Gonz in 2012. Kazmir, GMJ, and Abreu are coming off the books that year (more than $30M!), they could definitely afford him. That would for sure be a feared 1-2 punch with Morales and Gonzalez
It’s not about Ray being nuts, he didn’t write the story. Don’t be crazy Morales is no Gonzo.
Well hopefully the sun rises very slowly.
Word! That speedy CF would sure look good in Petco as well.
Actually, Toronto seems like a big candidate to me. They won 85 games last year and Anthopoulos has been talking about working the trade market to get elite players, not the free agent market.
Package around Drabeck and D’Arnaud or do you think the Pads would demand Arencibia?
I suspect the Jays value D’Arnaud over Arencibia.
Would it really make sense for the Jays to trade Agonz for 1 year? Do you really think it’s wise for them to pony up the $20 mil per it would take to keep him?
It would have to be near the deadline trade if Jays are 2nd in the division or only 2-5 games back out of division and WC and if AA feels like Agon can add take the club to the playoffs I think he would consider. Probably wouldn’t trade Drabek though.
And yeah, they would pony up 20 to sign him.
do you really think they are going to be 2-5 games out of the division next season at the deadline?
They aren’t going to be able to compete in the AL East next season especially if/when the Yankees and Red Sox spend. It’s sad but true.
just trying to be realistic
I was agreeing with you.
yea I know. That was kinda meant to be for sniderlove if he sees it before he responds. Sorry for confusion, mistake on my end
lol at the Red Sox spend…they bid but they are more of a tire kicker, when they do spend its on head scratchers like Lackey who by the way really lived up to year one of his Burnett like deal, even when they were going to get Arod in 2004 the deal was nixed by the union why? because they were going to have him take a pay cut, worked out over the long run but seriously, the Sox like the bargain bin and sadly its starting to hurt the team.
but the problem with your scenario is, that they wouldn’t be 2-5 games back without solid production from 1b from the beginning of the year.
definitely not, and moving drabek in exchange for him would be even worse..
Jays were an 85 win team this year, Agonz in for overbay isn’t a 10 win difference.
Not to mention how many question marks remain with the team.. Which Vernon wells will show up, was bautista a fluke, will the pitching staff remain healthy, will romero and cecil improve, is brandon morrow for real, which lind and hill will show up, etc etc etc
far too many questions marks to start bringining the final (rental) pieces to declare we’re going for it. . If that were the case, wouldnt they be better off going after crawford or beltre ??
thank you…I dont even know why A-Gon to the Jays was brought up.
exactly, it doesnt make sense at this point. I think if the jays were to trade for a 1b it would have to be with the reds for Alonso…
Perhaps moving Escobar for Alonso makes the most sense. . I’m not saying Adeiny is ready, but if you can get through next season you have to anticipate he’ll progress to mlb ready by 2012. . I can’t think of anything else that the reds would desire, unless the jays resign buck to a 2 year deal, and send Arencibia to the reds..
I’m not saying move Escobar, but Alonso would be an outstanding get for the Jays.
i like escobar, i really really do. i think he’s a great player and cant believe the braves gave him up..
but realistically the jays have very little position player depth, catcher. thats it.
Reds wont want pitching, so its either Arencibia, Snider or Escobar. .
I wouldnt trade Snider for almost anything at this point.. Alonso is a good talent, you’re gunna have to give up something pretty decent for him. and hech is coming along nicely
But that doesn’t mean they need to trade him.
not at all. but like i said if you are going to pick up Alonso, you are going to have to give back something of value.
I would love to sit here and tell you the jays can send brad mills, jesse litsch and a box of maple syrup, but its just not realistic.
Well I was thinking more along the lines of prospect for prospect. Remember as well that Alonso’s value isn’t as high as it used to be. Maybe Matt Daly, Ryan Page, Joel Careeno, and Sean Ochinko.
but the problem with that is, the reds are a “win now team’
I’m sure if they dangled Alonso they would want and would be able to get something that would help their roster immediately
That doesn’t mean they would want prospects. Alonso did nothing to help the Reds this season.
and they didn’t win the world series, so they need to improve their team.
Which means they have to take an asset, in this case Alonso, and make their on field team better.
Running out of commenting space!
That doesn’t mean they would want prospects. Alonso did nothing to help the Reds this season.
Because it could happen, the Jays have a really good crop of prospects and AA wants a compliment to Bautista, only problem would be would Agonz be happy in Canada… I really wouldnt be surprised if Toronto landed him, remember in 2005 when they went on a buying spree for at the time marquee free agents? and Farrel is the manager? i could see it.
The Jays don’t have a really good crop of prospects and some of their best are virtually untradeable.
No one is untradable if it helps improve your ballclub, the Jays have a great farm and they actually have a package they could make that would make it hard for San Diego to say no
Actually, minus there recent draft, the farm is depleted, and that’s coming from someone who saw several levels of their organization play this summer and knows about every player in their organization. Trust me
They thought so on Vernon Wells and Agonz is way better
hard to say, really hard to say… I think if we’re analyzing catchers, they probably value perez and jimenez over both of them…. but they definitely value drabek more then anyone, maybe besides snider
The one thing that the Jays do have is catching depth, Jimenez, Arencibia, D’Arnaud, Perez…
Carlos Perez is the best of the 4, but no reason to just go around trading catchers…
I’ve heard and read that jimenez is actually projected to be the best? either way its a good problem to have moving forward. You build teams down the middle, and the jays for too long have had revolving doors in the catcher and ss position.
I just don’t think Jimenez is a catcher in the long run.
which may not be a bad thing.. 1b?
Yeah 1B maybe OF.
Forget it the Jays aren’t going to acquire A-Gon…There would be no point in that…If they aren’t going to win the east, even with A-Gon, then why trade a somewhat depleted farm already?
Unless the Pads feel like they can honestly afford to give Agonz a contract he deserves then they should just trade him now for maximum value. They CAN still get a good amount of talent in return that would be better than two picks if they trade him mid-season but they simply are not a great team and unless they plan on making moves to improve the team then I say move Agonz now and use 2011 as a retooling year.
No! This is a franchise that hasn’t had consistent success since the 90’s. But those days of Tony Gwinn, Ken Caminiti, Kevin Brown and co. are over. It’s franchise players that get a franchise restored. A-Gon is one of them, and he is definetly gonna restore this franchise. I don’t want to see him leave San Diego. With their great pitching, the can build off good drafts and other trades that brings in better hitters to surround Adrian with talent.
Wow dude. You’re being a bit emotional. I would love to see Agonz become a lifer but I’m seperating what I feel with what is reality. Reality being that Agonz deserves fair market value and the Pads are probably not going to be able/willing to pony up the cash. If you’re realistic about 2010 I think the Pads were a little lucky to be where they were considering the Rocks were w/o Tulo for 40-50 games and the Dodgers had an off year. How long must Agonz wait for the team to become a champioship contender and not a team that backs in w/ 90-92 wins?
“How long must Agonz wait for the team to become a champioship contender and not a team that backs in w/ 90-92 wins?”
Being in 1st place for all but 1 month of the season and losing the division on the last day of the season, plus making the post-season twice while A-Gon has been a Padre doesn’t make the Padres sound as bad as you’re making them sound. They’ve been successfull team with him more years than not.
Honestly, they’ve backed into the playoffs more than they’ve won the playoffs. I’m not bashing them (long time Tony Gwynn fan here). I mean winning the NL West some years is the equivalent to being the 8th seed in the NBA playoffs w/ a 40-42 record. So unless the Pads feel they can HONESTLY…COMPETE….BEAT a team like the Giants and a healthy Rockies team then maybe they should trade Agonz now and look at 2011 as a transition year. And I hope Pads fans don’t take what I said the wrong way.
Exactly! They will offer something in the range of 3yr at 45 mil. he will politely decline and the trade talk will get hot and heavy. They are just waiting until the season ticket deadline to get this party started.
Totally agree with you. What’s this? A Yanks and Sox fan in agreement?
I’ve said before the clock is ticking. It has been since the last trade deadline. Obviously San Diego was in a pennant race so it would be ludicrous to trade their best bat. Now, San Diego is in a bit of a conundrum. They can possibly compete in 2011, but will they have enough to topple San Fran and Colorado?
They can hold him until this trade deadline to see where they are in the standings, but then you’re talking a 3 month rental and SD won’t get the same prospect haul they would if they traded him now.
Yankees sit at hime thinking “Maybe we should’ve swung the bats more?”
Trading Morales for Adrian Gonzalez, that seems like the stupidest move a GM could do.
I don’t see the logic in the Angels or Padres discussing a deal involving Morales. When healthy isn’t he Agonz lite? Also, isn’t he a year or so away from making big money as well and w/ Boras as an agent you know he’s going to test the market? Seems to me the Padres would be discussing trading Morales in a year or so if they were to make that deal for Agonz.
Morales has four years left.
Thanks for the correction. He is however arb eligible this year right?
Correct. It might even put him out of San Diego’s price range, sad to say.
Since when is A-Gon that much better of a hitter than Morales?
It’ll be a long time before anyone hits 40 in Petco again.
He drove in 99 runs that season. Its all about being productive.
It’s hard to drive in RBI when you don’t have runners on in front of you.
Gonz is a way better hitter then Morales. That does not mean that Morales is not a good hitter though. Hitting at Petco park takes a huge bite out of your offensive numbers. I think Gonz was near the top in MLB for home runs on the road and batting average. In addition, he was among the top ten in MLB for batting average against left handed pitchers [the only left handed hitter to do so]. Adrian Gonzalez is also a gold glove fielder. The Padres do not need a first baseman back in a trade for Adrian because they have Kyle Blanks to put there as well as a power hitting first baseman who will start the year at AAA. What the Padres need is a bonified starting CF with Speed —————- Ellsbury!
No mention of the Braves, I like.
Because of all the winning SD did last year it kind of changes the type of package they would demand in return. Instead of just looking to maximize prospect value no matter the level I bet they are looking to add at least one up the middle CF/SS/2B MLB player who can hit second or third plus maybe an MLB ready starter and then whatever prospect value they can get added on.
Just throwing this out there… but Texas could be a fit.
Perhaps Tampa if they are contending near trade deadline.
That’s a good thought. I mentioned it a month ago in a post about Agonz. The Rays might feel that they want to try and compete next year. Agonz can replace a lot of the offense lost by Pena and CC. They have plenty of pitching and some spare parts they can offer. Something like Davis, Brignac, Joyce and a prospect might do it with some tinkering. W/ Pena, CC, Soriano, etc coming off they can add Agonz for a year and still meet the payroll deductions they have planned. They would still have Jenings, Upton and Zobrist in the OF. Agonz, Bartlett, Rodriguez and Longo in the IF. Price, Garza, Shields, Hellickson and Neimann in the rotation. And they could flip him in July if they aren’t contending. Plus they would be sticking it to the Red Sox.
and everyone forgets that the Rangers drafted Agon
I remember, and they got garbage back for him. But also, Jon Daniels didn’t trade him away, and they made it to the World Series without a 1st Baseman. There’s no shame in wanting a 300+ 30 HR hitter in your lineup, even if your team traded him away
why is everyone misinterpreting my posts tonight? lol
I was saying there is a connection with Agon and Texas that goes beyond what most remember because he broke out in SD…
Florida drafted him and then traded him to Texas a few years later. Because the Rangers had Texeria ahead of Gonz, they basically threw him in with the deal to the Padres. Gonz got a lucky break when Klesko got hurt in spring training. Adrain had a decent rookie year and Klesko never got his job back. Adrian was ticketed for AAA that year if not for the Klesko injury.
Actually the Marlins drafted him.
I think FLA drafted him..
TAMPA can trade for him, could they keep him? no way…
Maybe its just me, but I’m not sure how you all expect San Diego to be able to raise their price now, unless they really are certain they have any sort of a chance of resigning this guy. Any suitor is basically gonna have to have an extension guaranteed, otherwise its not worth it for them at all. Instead of the two-year rental he would have been last year, you only get a year out of him now. And nobody wants to trade starters or blue-chip prospects for a one-year rental. Now maybe, a team like the Angels feels like he is the one missing piece they need to win the World Series, and are willing to spend that much for maybe just one year, but really every bidder is going to be more cautious about tossing prospects around in discussions. For example, I follow Boston, and I would be interested to see them make a strong push for A-Gon. However, I don’t think they believe that he is the key to a strong playoff run -in- 2011 (not that he wouldn’t be helpful of course), and they would be willing to wait until next offseason to just buy him if they could. So I could see Boston making similar offers to the last time they talked, but not necessarily pushing past that, unless A-Gon gave them a guarantee for an extension. Every day that goes by, San Diego is losing negotiating leverage, as the time for the other team to get to use him will trickle down.
The Rangers gave up a blue chip prospect for less than a year of Cliff Lee. It happens.
True…it seems to me if nothing could get done this year though, bidders might be more reluctant on the second go-round. Who knows. I think at least Boston isn’t going to overbid; that might take them out of the ring of favorites, but judging from Theo’s track record he doesn’t seem too willing to gamble on a one-year rental.
To acquire a great player you need to give up “blue chip prospects”. Type A’s demand two draft picks and teams want to get the equivilance.
Yeah, look at what Colorado got for 1 year of Holliday (Cargo and Street) and what the A’s got for 2 months of Holliday (Wallace, a guy who was a 1st rnder in 2007 and a guy who was a 2nd rnder in 2008). Plenty of teams would be more than happy to give up two top 5 prospects for 1 full year of Agonz if they felt it would them compete in 2011.
Yeah and most of those times, the one trading the superstar wins. 🙂 *shrugs* I guess this was more of a personal post than a generality; I don’t think Boston will want to give up such a prospect without a guarantee to have A-Gon for many years, and I don’t want them to do that either. Which might mean they don’t get him..but then again, if that means they did something like resign Beltre, I’d almost be fine with that.
I think for some reason ppl limit the pool for Agonz to those that can afford to offer him a huge extension. Deadline deals every year involve 1 team trading a nice prospect package to another team for a 1 year or two month rental. Honestly, Agonz makes $5.5 mil next year and any team willing to offer an enticing package can have him. Obviously, teams closer to contending are the ones most willing to trade prospects as opposed to teams that are rebuilding but the pool is much greater than what ppl think about. With Chipper Jones possibly playing his last year in 2011 the Braves should be all over trying to get Agonz for one last try for the “Chipper”. They have the prospects to land him and he is by far the most affordable clean up bat on the market in terms of effect on the payroll.
Would Boston want to risk the Padres trading him to another team and not get him altogether? What if the Yankees traded for Gonz just to hose the Red Sox? The Yankees then rotate Texeria and Gonz between DH and 1b. If I were the Red Sox, I dont mess around, give the Padres a reasonable return [one major leaguer (Ellsbury), and Doubront] and then Bard for Bell. I think that is a good haul for both teams. Adrian Gonzalez is going to just rake playing at Fenway. Adrian will be your best offensive hitter by far playing at Fenway.
If the Yankees want to lock up close to half a million dollars on a first base plattoon, they can have him.
That is to say, there is absolutely no way in the world the Yankees are going to go after Gonzalez.
The Yankees have a first baseman already and Posada is about two or three years past the point he should have become a full time DH already and when Posada’s contract runs out, A-Rod’s not going to be far behind regular DHing. The Yankees have boatloads and boatloads of money, but they’re not going to spend $180 million dollars just to “hose the Red Sox.”
Yeah, but the Yankees could go after Gonzalez and trade Texeria to another
team not named the Red Sox.
no, actually they can’t.
Why do you say that, the Yankees could definately do that. Whats holding
them back from doing that? It would keep the Sox from getting Gonz or at a
minimum drive up the trade value.
at that would lower texiera’s value considerably.
Why do you say that, the Yankees could definately do that. Whats holding
them back from doing that? It would keep the Sox from getting Gonz or at a
minimum drive up the trade value.
no, actually they can’t.
I think SD asking for Bard would squash the deal. Everyone the Sox has talked to has wanted Bard and Boston always said no.
That said, Sox rotation is set for next 4 years, and they have Casey Kelly and Doubront, making one expendible, the other groomed for #5 spot in 2012 if Dice-k is traded.
If there was a substitution for Bard, I would pull the trigger, pending an extension for Gonzo. I think Theo tends to be a little tight with the purse strings regarding trading prospects, but when a guy like Gonzo comes around, you gotta make a move. Just my .02
I agree for the most part; however, Heath Bell is a better relief pitcher
then Bard is at the moment, much more proven. How much better would the Sox
be by adding two [two time] all-stars to their team. The Sox would be
trading two good MLB players for two All-star players. In addition, the Sox
could then go hard for Crawford and would totally be competitve with the
Yankees. Putting Bard in the package gives Hoyer credibility for the SD
fans. All this assumes that the Sox can sign Gonz long term of course.
Because the Friars were beat by the Giants in game 162 to be eliminated. At this point it is a very good bet that the Giants will be World Champs. (I know that continues to befuddle east coasters and saber-junkies) So, the Friars, without making a move have to feel good about ’11. I think that they will be frugal, but they will be looking for a deal this off-season which will improve them a bit offensively, and not be a defensive downgrade. So, any deal for AGon this off-season will have to knock the socks off the Friars, probably including a productive MLB level player and a high level prospect, or the deal isn’t getting done. I don’t see the Friars falling out of contention next season, they will be playing for ring in ’11, so I’m sorry to say to all Sawx fans, like I did last winter, AGon will not be a BoSox hitter in ’11.
Obviously the Angels won’t propose Morales for Gonzalez, that would be dumb.
However they could try to package Juan Rivera, Howie Kendrick (Or Callaspo) and a prospect for him. Rivera still has a relatively cheap contract, and if you consider this last year just a down year like everyone else on the Angels had, then he’s a bargain.
Then the Angels could do 1 of 2 things.
1. Sign a LF (Carl Crawford) and DH Morales and AGon 1/2 the time
2. Put Morales in left, though that is worrisome off of a broken leg, and have Abreu DH.
I like the concept of Rivera + Kendrick but you would have to throw in a top flight prospect (or two) as well. Not some extra type guy but a real impact player. And even then you have Morales playing the OF which is exactly what we are trying to avoid.
Honestly though I just don’t see how we can have Gonzalez and Morales on the same team. There are too many better fits out there with other teams.
WE are talking about a year rental. Rivera and Kendrick + a B prospect
Really? Rivera and Kendrick? Rivera is a 32 yo who makes about the equivalent to Agonz and is a free agent after 2011 as well. Kendrick is an under performing 2B who at age 27 is about to enter into his arb years. Doesn’t really sound like the haul of cost controled players the Padres would want. Once Agonz is gone I don’t think they will hold any real expectations to contend in 2011 so why take on older guys earning “real” money who would actually block some younger guys that desrve PT for future play?
Why would the Padres want either one of those guys? Keep your extra crap. Every poster on here is under the illusion that you can trade your extra crap for a MVP type player, heck if that is the case the Padres might as well keep him [take the two draft picks] and make another run for the playoffs. The advantage for anyone who trades for Gonzalez this year is that they would have negoiating rights as well as a whole year at $5.5m for that elite production. Last time I checked, the Giants are two games away from a W.S. title and the Padres took the Giants to the last game of the year before missing out of the playoffs. There is nothing in it for the Padres to trade Adrian for your teams sludge when they can keep him and make another run for a title.
Hey dude I was on your side haha.
One of the whole points of the Padres acquiring trading A-Gon would be to get prospects, not Juan Rivera.
I like this idea in principle, but I just don’t see it happening. For one, I don’t see Rivera/Kendrick as nearly enough to get that deal done, unless the prospect included is Mike Trout, and honestly, I wouldn’t trade him for one year of ANY hitter, no matter how good they are. In fact, if the Angels can’t sign Crawford or Werth, and can’t significantly upgrade their offense in any other way, I’d rather see him get the shot in the outfield as opposed to seeing the Angels make some panic trade, or a panic signing (i.e., Gary Matthews Jr.)
That being said, if the Angels do make a big trade this winter, I’d see them going after a third baseman or SS over A-Gon; perhaps David Wright or Jose Reyes.
If the Padres are to take prospects then those prospects must be almost MLB ready and play CF, LF, 2nd or Catcher. Every trade the Padres do also always includes a decent pitching prospect. I think the one MLB player that would make an absolute difference for the Padres is Ellsbury from the Sox. Ellsbury would hit leadoff and steal tons of bases and play a good CF, all things the Padres need to win at Petco. What most of you are unaware of is the the Padres have a very athletic SS who most likely will begin the year at AA with an early promotion to AAA before mid season. If Cabrera gets his hitting mojo back, the Padres would move him to second.
what is it with the cubs and ex nationals? 1st they sign soriano to a big contract which is proving 2 be stupid
trade for marlon byrd and now they want 2 sign dunn as well???
i can cerntainly see why theyve been losing for so long
A package from te red sox would probably have to include casey Kelly,Jed lowrie, stolmy pimentel, jacoby ellsbury. And maybe pimentel or reddick.
for a player who can walk at the end of the year?
I wonder if Hoyer would want to do a deal headlined by Casey Kelly considering his struggles @ AA. Yes, yes, yes…I know he was only 20. Howeever, it’s still a gamble and I would think he can get a deal done for someone that had a strong year and is also a top 15 prospect in baseball.
it really depends on what happens this offseason. . If the sox sign dunn then what the padres get for agonz will go way down.
You’re assuming that the Sox will have the best offer on the table? If the Sox sign Dunn it decreases the need for Agonz but it doesn’t effect what other teams will offer for Agonz.
Sure it does, one less team in the mix is one less team driving up the price.Trades are just like free agency in that the more teams are interested, especially divisional rivals, the more likely it is for a team to end up overpaying.Especially a team like the sox who would probably be more willing to part with top prospects knowing they have the funds allocated to go out and get some more. Losing a team like that out of the bidding war would definitely decrease the haul that the padres get .
Hoyer says “Hey we’re putting Agonz on the block”. Six teams including the Sox put in their offers. No team really knows what the other is really offering. Sox decide to sign Adam Dunn. Maybe they lower their initial offer. 5 other offers still exist and no one knows what the Sox offer is. Pads take one of the other 5 offers. You’re assuming that the Sox are going to have the best offer on the table.
No, i’m assuming that teams will put in better offers because the red sox have an offer in.
and i really hope thats not how you think trade negotiations work, baseball players aren’t a used car on kijiji, theres bartering and negotiating of deals.
Like hey Sox, angels offer is better then yours, we’re going to send adrian there unless you add in Kelly or Inglesias, etc etc. or vice versa Something is only worth what someone is willing to pay, you can’t honestly think that the mariners would have gotten what they got for lee if texas was the only team in the race to grab him.
So I’m going to have to respectfully disagree, a team like the sox landing a longterm solution at 1B before this trade deadline would definitely lower what teams offer to the padres.
No team is going to treat a trade like a silent auction. You can rest assured every team will know what everyone else is offering, otherwise where is Hoyer’s leverage?
The Padres do not need any of those players you list, the Padre farm system is as good as the Red Sox is. Start the trade discussions with Ellsbury and involve other teams.
Maybe you’re directing that towards someone else because I didn’tmake a Red Sox proposal.
I think he might. If you look at Kelly’s splits 1st half vs 2nd half, he made the necessary adjustments and had an excellent finish. He’s still a very highly regarded prospet.
I see what your saying and that’s why teams having “untouchable prospects” reaaly confuses me. How many “can’t miss” prospects have missed and how many no bodies have become stars. Why these teams, who can afford to give him an extension, won’t trade the farm for Gonzalez just bewilders me. They would at least know what they are getting in Gonzalez and with there prospects all they have are hopes.
That’s probably what hoyer would ask for right now, but theo would probably not it down to ellsbury, lowrie, kelly, Anderson. Or ellsbury, rizzo, Kelly, or lowrie, Kelly, rizzo, reddick.
Dude I just can’t see Theo giving up those prospects. It would be more prudent to wait for him to hit free agency. Think about it if we give up say four or five of those and 2 become very good then we’ve already given up more then we got if you figure in the money needed to keep him(20mill a year plus).
Angels shouldnt even try to trade for a-gon. save your players to try and get Wright, Grienke, or uggla and just try and go after a-gon in the winter because you could really get him the contract he wants and still is really close to home!! and a platoon DH and 1st base and mike likes DH platoon
yup, just write off the dodgers like you always do.
until McCourts gone.. its a fairly safe bet :/
The McCourts have to go….. when is MLB going to stand in?
I agree. But Bud is going to try to stay out of it for as long as he can because he allowed McCourt to buy the team when he really couldn’t afford them.
My guess though is after someone appeals the ruling(whoever loses) and it becomes obvious it is not going to be resolved
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I really hope the Cubs don’t pull the trigger on Gonzalez. Hendry feels like he has to pull a big move (when really he should be building a strong bullpen), and I really don’t think that Adam Dunn will be able to help our cause. Gonzo is younger, and it would be nice to have a reliable bat in the middle of the order, but Hendry doesn’t seem to realize that the key to a good team is either a blowout offense (Rangers/Phillies/Yankees) or young pitching (Giants/Padres). The Cubs at the moment cannot afford a blowout offense like the Yankees can (every year) sigh*, so I hope he sells this season and rebuilds. It will be more painful this year, but in the end it will help out the team much more when the team is at their peak. The Cubs should shoot to rebuild by 2013 centered around a strong bullpen, and Starlin Castro. I seriously hope Hendry doesn’t blow all the money this year.
But Bosox　will have to give up Casey Kelly, Ryan Kalish, Anthony Rizzo, J・Lowlie for 1year Agon
Hoyer and Epstein they talking each other in the phone about Gonso trade and extension now or in the first day after WS.
hypothetical Cubs trade : IF Hak-Ju Lee or Darwin Barney, C Wellington Castillo, and either OF Brett Jackson or Tyler Colvin (yes, i’d trade Colvin for Gonzalez). If the Padres want pitching substitute pretty much anyone but Cashner for the outfielder. All are young, almost major league ready, and under team control for multiple years.
as for signing him long term, He’s cheap this year, next year you have Fukudome, Ramirez and Zambrano coming off the books (and Carlos Silva, though i’m not sure on that). The Cubs will need a middle-of-the order bat like Gonzalez either this year or next anyways, and short of Pojuls, Gonzalez is the best one out there.
The Cubs don’t have anything in the system to replace Lee long term, So signing Dunn for two or three years doesn’t make a lot of sense when the best first basemen are going to be free agents next year, and the Cubs also don’t have a lot of power hitters in the system either. Gonzalez solves pretty much all of their inevitable needs in one durable, reliable package and doesn’t bring a lot of other ‘issues’ with him to the clubhouse.
Not saying the Cubs should be considered favorites in all this, or that the owners will be willing to spend the money for him… just saying he makes a lot of sense for them from an organizational standpoint and could, possibly, be acquired without breaking the bank in terms of the farm system.
I like the idea, as a cubs fan of course i do, and it makes sense for the team.
However you are a bit off on the contracts. Zambrano is signed through 2012 and yes Aramis could come off after next year he will cost at least 2M if they buyout the club option on him which is for 16M.
The contracts that are up after this year are Fukudome 13.5M, Silva 11.5M (Mutual op. for 2012-2M buyout) and Grabow 4.8M. Those are the big ones.
The Cubs are being paid 5.5M next year by Seattle for Silva. So youre really only gaining 4M from him after the buyout on 2012. So from those 3 you have just a shade over 22M. Not counting the possible 14M from Ramirez. So yes the money is there but they need more than just a 1B to bring them back to contention. Would he help? Of course he would. Would he make them a 90+ win team by just adding him? probably not.
That doesnt include the prospects that CHC would have to give up.
It would probably take Vitters, Hak-Ju Lee, Castillo, and one of the Jacksons either Brett the OF or Jay the Pitcher. And that may not even be enough to get it done. They will have to outbid at least the Red Sox who have a very deep system and with Ricketts and Co. talking about building up the farm system more by reallocating money it would be a tough sell to empty the system even if it meant getting AGon.
Right now if he goes anywhere i would expect it to be an AL team. Most likely Boston but i wouldnt count out Anaheim, the White Sox, or an even darker horse Detroit.
I’m one of those people who doesn’t think trading for Gonzalez will take a huge amount. yes, he’s in the prime of his career, but he’s only got a year left and then he’s a (very expensive) free agent, which takes a lot of the leverage away from the Padres. it IS sort of a Mark Texiera situations where what you’re actually bidding against is the two first round picks SD gets when leaves, because everybody knows he’s going to.
I also don’t happen to think the Cubs are going to be in rebuilding mode for long. most of the bad contracts expire after 2012 and so far the new owners don’t seem shy about spending, which translates to a pretty quick rebuild.
This is true and like you i dont think that Ricketts will allow the team to be sub .500 for long. However there are more pressing needs than giving up a bunch of prospects to get Gonzalez. They still need starting pitching. I dont see Wells or Gorzalanny as a long term solution. Dempster is a solid 3 or 4 guy. and Silva is someone that they wont bring back after this year.
If they can get AGon for the right price then yes a deal is worth it. But just because he is in a contract year doesnt mean that SD will take drastically less in a deal. They already have a very marginal fanbase, giving away their best player for nothing is not going to happen.
I think that if/when SD does end up trading him it will be more for a package like the Rangers got for Teixiera then what the Braves got. 4 prospects with at least 2 A+ prospects. Thats why i say that any deal the Cubs make will have to include Vitters and Hak Ju Lee and then mix and match 2 other guys with Castillo and one of the Jacksons being the most likely.
Nice to see some other ideas out there such as the Rangers and the Blue Jays. Not sure where Norcross came up with these cities, but outside of the Cubs and possibly the Angels this is a long shot.
Teams that would make more sense would be the White Sox and Mariners. Keep in mind that the Padres have Blanks and he should be healthy by the start of the season. The team also has depth in the minors at 1B, so a 1B in return is not a major concern.
I know I’m a little late, but what would you think of dealing Gonzo to the M’s for Figgins, Smoak and Pineda? The M’s would be giving up 2 very good prospects, but also be getting rid of a very bad contract and getting Gonzo. The Padres would get a guy who could play 3rd and bat leadoff, both of which is where Figgins belongs, a replacement for Gonzo and a very good pitching prospect who is close to the majors. I am a Padre fan, but with Figgins contract I really don’t think this deal is unfair.
What do you think?
Everyone forgetting that Prince Fielder is available in Milwaukee? That too will drive down the price of AGon. The Pad fans need to lower their expectations because there are only a few teams out there willing to pay big money for a first baseman. And of those that are Yankees, and Angels don’t need to! Sox Can probably get Fielder cheaper for a one year rental then sign AGON for his glove and bat after one year. The PADS could get a bigger haul if they look past the top prospects and look to those more than a year out. In the Sox system that is where the value is and more willingness to deal.
I dont think that Fielder being available will hurt SD in what they get. Dont forget that Prince’s agent is Scott “the antichrist” Boras. Teams might look at him as a fallback option but Boras’s M.O. has always been to take his clients to free agency and to not sign a contract mid season.
Granted SD could get a lot more in they look at guys who are 2-4 years away. but would you rather make a deal for 5 Craig Counsell’s or 3 potential all stars who are a year away at most?
Dont get me wrong Counsell was a nice roleplayer. But you have to get stars not just guys to fill out the roster even if you get one or two less.
compare 6.2 MM AGON TO 16. MM FIELDER for one year so no lower expectations for now.
The red sox could get prince fielder and have him at first base untill the trade deadline and then flip fielder and trade for Gonzalez.
The price for AGon will be VERY high all off season because based upon how the Giants are succeeding this postseason, the Friars have to feel good about ’11. AGon is a huge part of that plan so they would have to have something close to his production for ’11 coming back, plus what they feel they would get when he walks. Or no deal. I said this last year when this subject came up, and now have a seasons worth of real results to back it up. The NL West is a different brand of baseball, but it is good baseball as the Giants are establishing right now. The Friars are a good baseball team too. So, since the object of MLB is to win championships, AGon is not going anywhere until he walks for FA, as the right move is to play for the ring, not for the future.
Hold on Boston fans for this one.
Boston gets A Gon
Pads receive
-Jacoby Ellsbury
-Jed Loweri because Marco Scutaro can man short in 2011 and short stop -Prospect Jose Iglesias should be ready for 2012 when Scutaro contract will be up
-Casey Kelly
-Josh Reddick
This move then would create some other trades and position changes.
Kevin Youkilis to 3rd base
trade Dice-k to the mets for Carlos Beltran with Beltran deal expiring at the end of next season
Pitching rotation
Jon Lester
Clay Buchholz
Josh Beckett
John Lackey
Tim Wakefield or sign a one year deal with maybe a Branden Webb
Now find a deal for Carl Crawford maybe 6 years/ 100 million with the money saved from Lowell deal expiring and not resigning Beltre.
A new deal for Victor Martinez because he is the best option you have in the short term.
Lets say 3 years 14 million per season will a team option for the 4th.
Trade Mike Carmon for relief pitching
Batting order and postions
Carl Crawford lf
Dustin Pedroia 2nd base
Adrian Gonzales 1st base
Kevin Youkilis 3rd base
Victor Martinez catcher
David Ortiz DH
Carlos Beltran CF
JD Drew RF
Marco Scutaro SS
Looks pretty good and I feel it can be done with there payroll
Can you hook me up with your pot dealer?
hey read some of your post. very insightful. seems to me you and Ron washington share the same qualities and it probably is winter at your house all year long.
wow burn. from the guy who wants to trade dice k for beltran and thinks that vmart is going to sign a 3/14 not to mention trading casey kelly, ellsbury, and lowrie for a player who could walk at the end of the year.
keep up the good work.
hey read some of your post. very insightful. seems to me you and Ron washington share the same qualities and it probably is winter at your house all year long.
Can you hook me up with your pot dealer?
You forgot to add…”make it happen, Theo!”
I really don’t see the Pads making any deals until the deadline. There is a much better chance that Heath Bell gets traded before Adrian. A deal before the season starts would have to knock the socks off of Hoyer and be a legitimate win in the eyes of Padre fans. In my mind, only one team that could do it, and that is Tampa. You could get a Quality MI (Rodriguez, Bartlett, Brignac), CF (Upton or Jennings-they won’t trade this guy though), a pitcher and some prospects. It won’t happen thought.
I can, however, see them flipping Bell to TB for MI or CF, and trading Headley (One of Towers favorites) to AZ for Reynolds.
absolutely ZERO chance that the Giants sign Gonzalez. 1) Management has already come out and said that they’re not increasing payroll much, instead they’ll be “creative.” 2) Brandon Belt is tearing up the minors, and will be on the roster by the end of 2011. They’re not going to try to accommodate Huff, Belt, Ishikawa, and Gonzalez.
Like others have said, I don’t think San Diego will shop A.Gonz until the deadline. I’m sure they’ll listen to offers this winter, but he certainly won’t be “on the block”I also think that the while the Sox have the pieces to make the trade (Kelly, Ellsbury, Lowrie for starters + a few more solid prospects) I’m not sure if they will. It might be more prudent for them (and cost less in prospects) to explore a Fielder trade this winter and/or wait and make sure that St. Louis locks up Albert. But, if Fielder is traded to another team and Albert gets extended…I think the Sox MIGHT still be willing to trade big pieces for an extra year of Adrian (and a great shot at a 2011 title) rather than just wait till he’s a FA…not sure though.
The only way the Cubs trade here is if Gonzales agreed to an extension with the Cubs. Highly unlikely they contend this year. In order for him to sign, the Cubs have to get rid of some payroll first. In other words, as much as I’d love to see this happen, it ain’t happening.
Then again, Ricketts donated $600,000 to Sharron Angle’s campaign so he’s got money to burn somewhere…