The Padres had been in sole possession of first place in the NL West since June 11th, but they now find themselves tied with the Giants after falling to their rivals from the Bay 1-0 last night. It was San Diego's 12th loss in 15 games, and San Francisco's sixth win in seven games. A lead that once swelled to six-and-a-half games disappeared in just 15 days.
The Pads are going to have to continue to rely on their extreme pitching and defense approach (MLB best 3.34 ERA and +47.3 UZR) while the Giants have benefited greatly from in-season additions like Pat Burrell (134 OPS+ with SF) and Buster Posey (129). It's worth noting that the Padres do have two games at hand, but it might not matter when the two clubs meet for three games in San Francisco for the season's final series.
Of course, we'd be remiss if we didn't mention the Rockies, who have won eight in a row and 15 of their last 19 as part of their annual second half surge. They're now just two-and-a-half back in the division after being 11 games back 18 days ago. It's going to be a mad dash to finish for the NL West crown, which brings us to today's question.
Who will win the NL West?
Exciting! Giants, Pads, and Rocks! This is going to be a good finish. I think the Giants will prevail in the end though.
This is really a tough decision, padres have held it most of the year, Rockies have a history of going on crazy comeback runs, and the giants have the easiest schedule left.
I say the Padres win 18-4 tonight, win 1-0 tomorow, and statistically win the division on september the 29th…
By the way Timmy I like your comment yesterday man.
i would love those scores to happen today but i guess we will see. I am more excited for the pitching match up tomorrow more so than the one today. Maybe Latos will get some CY award respect tomorrow if he out duels Lincecum. As for the comment i don’t think it was anything special, but thanks for the props.
Have the Padres ever scored 18 runs in a game?
Yes.
pretty close on the prediction for the game today. Still nice to see a win. Whats not nice is having to high five Heath Bell after a game. Reminds me of Bateman from the “the replacements”
Yeah thanks man. But I really imagine Torrealba had to Ice his hand. But
it’s worth it. They needed a win.
Go Rockies!
Despite it all the Padres still have the best run differential in the league, they’re +25 better than the next best. Gotta go with the Pads since they’re still in a better position in the standings than the Rox and have a better run differential than the Giants. Innocent until proven guilty.
I understand where you’re coming from, but…we’re not talking about “what have they done so far”, we’re talking about “what we think they will do”…
To clarify, I’m not sure that things the Padres did 3 months ago has any real bearing on whether or not they’re playing well enough right now to win the division.
I picked the Giants, largely because they’re hot right now, and because I’m not entirely convinced the Rockies can play well enough on the road.
Did you mean the best RD in the division?
i think the padres win in game 163
Has any NL team fan even thought about what will happen when they run into the buzz saw NYY in the WS, or if somehow the Rays manage to knock them out.. Even them? Not one NL team even remotely matches up to either of those teams, home field advantage or not.
It’s like these teams played tough against each other for 7 months for a consolation prize.
Braves beat the Rays at the Ted. Phillies beat the Rays 2 years ago. NL teams have won without the home-field, so think what they can do with it. Besides, it’s hard not to choose Yankees with their 3 starters, but right now it looks more like 2 starters. They will have to go up against Halladay, Oswalt, Hamels; Hudson, Jair, Hanson; Lincecum, Cain, Zito… it will be a good November regardless… as well as the last
Latos, Jimenez, Richard, Garland, Wainright Carpenter, Garcia, Cueto, Chapman, Leake
Thanks, was trying to get everyone’s top 3 for the post-season rotations. Decided just to do the 3 I knew off the bat. Wainright, Carpenter, Garcia is great… but I’m not sold that they will make it into the post-season this year.
i love how all these networks like espn and sportingnews keep focusing on the padres giants series saying itll determine how the rest of the season plays out when the rockies are coming up and will overtake them both.
You do realize Rockies won’t win the west. There pitching is not even close to what the Giants or the Padres have. The only reason why they won 8 straight is because they’re playing at home. Wait till they get on the road. How about the last time you guys were at AT&T? We took 2 out of 3.
You’re missing one key factor. In the end all it comes down to is which team of 25-40 players is playing the best and right now that’s undeniably the Rockies. If pitching was everything then the Athletics should be leading the league.
And by the way, the final series between the Rockies and Giants is in Colorado.
that doesn’t matter. the giants play them in a few weeks and they’ll have a big enough cushion by then. the giants have 20 games left and 8 of those are with teams over 500. that’s 3 with colorado and 5 with san diego. the only way SD or the rox win the west is if the giants lose in those 8 games.
The Giants are 8-2 just like the Rockies in their last 10 games. Besides the Rockies lost Cook and Lincecum is getting out of his slump. Padres have the hardest schedule and the Giants have the easiest. I still believe the Padres are finishing 3rd this year.
Um, the current win streak started with a three-game sweep of the Padres at PETCO.
They also have three games at home against both the Padres and Giants, so they are definitely going to have a say in things.
The thing that sucks for the Rockies tonight is they have to win or they lose a game no matter what. Rockies are making a run but they’re running out of games to do it.
i dont like your comment at all i meant to hit reply.
“The thing that sucks for the Rockies tonight is they have to win or they lose a game no matter what”
youre acting as if theyre playing the yankees tonight. the dbacks are like a AA team
reguardless of how you feel about the dbacks, they’re still a major league team and they can hit a lot of home runs. the reason they’re record is so bad is their pitching. if their starters throw somewhat of a good game their offense can win a game.
He isnt talking about the team they are playing tonight he is talking about the fact that 2 first place teams are playing in the division right now meaning regardless of who wins today the rockies cant gain ground they can only lose it. Rockies are the hottest team yes but they have to leap frog 2 teams. The padres have the best pitching and have the track record this year which makes them dangerous, and finally the giants have the easiest schedule which is enviable but while they are hot it would be an anomaly for a team to acquire so many players and not be affected at all negatively. All in all it will at least be enjoyable to watch.
Highly unlikely. The Rockies are only 2.5 out in the West, yeah, but they’ve got to leapfrog two teams regardless of whether they pursue the WC or West crown, and at this point in the season it seems ridiculous to think that the Rockies will continue to play well while a certain combination of two out of four teams simultaneously collapse, particularly considering those teams are all probably better than the Rockies.
They don’t have to wait for the complete collapse of 2/4 teams, they could just out play them all like they have in ’07 and ’09…..I will agree with the fact that the later it gets the more they will be relaying on help from others.
The Rox and the Giants have been the hottest teams in the past couple of weeks so if i was any other team i would be very worried about both as the Giants have such dominate pitching and the Rox bats and pitching have become far more consistant, hence the 11 wins in 13 games.
I know many have and will continue to count the Rockies out but there is just something about these guys in September where you always feel like you will have a shot….some people should come out to Denver and experience it for themselves…..maybe they wont overcome the odds this yr but thats the whole reason i love baseball more than any sport by far.
look with all due respect to the rockies I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again that team is overrated. When the season started I thought they were the team to beat not once I repeat NOT ONCE this whole season have they been in first or second place in the division. Ubaldo is the only pitcher in that rotation thats totally reliable. In Coors field the pitchers get away with a bad outing because its a hitters park and the offense thrives there. The offense falters everywhere else they’re horrible on the road thats what will slow them down. They own the padres this year which shows they will play them well at home or at petco. However the Rox and Giants are pretty evenly matched whether its SF or Colorado, the Giants blew them out in Coors 10-0 and the Rockies shut us out 4-0 in AT&T so this next series will be fun to watch. I’m not gonna say the Rockies won’t win but they will have a run for their money with the Giants and Cardinals later this season.
Dodgers!
Uh, NL teams would have good pitching but the offense doesent match up against teams like NYY, Tampa, or heck, even Texas. Don’t count the Twins out either. I remember when everyone was saying the Phils were easily the better team and were going to beat the Yankees. After game 1 NYY got back on their horse and rickrolled the Phillies in the next 4 out of 5 games and even came close to beating them at home. It is very easy to misinterpret the outcome of those games when nobody has even seen the matchups yet.
good pitching beats good hitting always. Padres have taken care of the Rays this year. While the hitting is dominant for the Yankees i still question anyone past CC. Texas has faltered and Twins are the biggest threat when it comes to being well balanced and even then they have Liriano and spot starters filling in currently.
Well the Padres have young pitching that also, has never pitched in the playoffs. Mat Latos I think is nearing his innings limit, and they have to lower his workload to protect his arm. And Clayton Richard, and Wade LeBlanc have had good years but, they’re not going to succeed much in the future since they aren’t overpowering and have average stuff. Good control but if they hang pitches, they are gonna get torched. And the Pads offense can easily be shut down. And I think the Yankees are going to be more of a threat with their rotation when Andy comes back. Plus they’re offense, the Yanks can win a series of 5-6 games. Remember, the Yanks bullpen has also been resurgent.
while you bring up good points i still have to disagree. You cannot discount a non track record for pitchers as being immediately terrible . I think you and the rest of the country discount padres pitching as a product of their ballpark. Richard is not a #1 pitcher but you arent asking him to be. Other than Sabathia i would take him over any other pitcher on the Yankees starting rotation. Leblanc has lost his spot but still has been better than 90% of all 5TH starters. Its not as if we are asking our young pitchers to pitch above their heads, they pitch within their ability and while i agree they dont have overpowering stuff they know how to pitch (which Burnett needs to learn) There is no concern for them in the future as they aren’t succeeding on being an unknown but from being a control efficient pitcher. Finally Latos will not be shutdown or curtailed anytime soon during a pennant chase.
Your thoughts on a potential Yankees matchup
CC vs Latos- Draw
Garland vs Burnett- Garland on a normal day- good day for Burnett of course Burnett
Richard vs Hughes- Richard
Wash rinse repeat
Also if you want to bring up Pettite then i will bring up Chris Young. once agian that is another draw and regardless of their “resurgency” the padres bullpen is still more dominant.
Richard’s overall numbers are a product of his ballpark though. ERA – 2.77 >> 4.12, FIP – 3.37 >> 4.01, xFIP – 3.62 >> 4.80, K/BB – 2.41 >> 1.53, WHIP – 1.19 >> 1.58.
Edit: Looking at the rest of their rotation, Garland has some home/away split concerns, and LeBlanc has very alarming concerns. LeBlanc probably won’t be starting in the playoffs, but he has most definitely been a product of Petco. Also, how can you say draw with Pettitte and Young? Chris Young has pitched 6 innings all year, while Pettitte has been out for ~6 weeks.
Both are unknowns coming back from injury. To bank on a pitcher coming back from an injury as an automatic win isnt logical thats why i said it would be a draw.
Clayton Richard wins in a duel against Hughes hardly. Both at this point are just young pitchers with more to prove with Hughes having the much higher ceiling. I don’t care how Hughes has struggled the past months he can still pitch well and not to mention as Yankees420 said below me, Richard’s numbers are a product of Petco. Mostly a flyball pitcher who would get torched at Yankee Stadium. And considering the Yanks work the count very well Richard wouldn’t last long either in Petco against them.Also turn that CC vs. Latos Draw into a Yanks win. Great offense, good bullpen, will beat mediocre offense, great bullpen. Please keep in mind that everyone knows what CC did last year in the playoffs, while we have yet to see how Mat Latos will perform in the playoffs.
So statistical data means nothing on Hughes recently but it means everything on Richard? Richard and Hughes are near identical on GB FLYB ratio, watch a padres game and see if he is a flyball pitcher. I recently read that Hughes hasnt pitched in 9-10 days so i guess its not even worth the discussion, can you elaborate on the projected playoff rotation for the yankees? Great pitching can shutdown great hitting. Also if you want to mention that all of our pitchers are a product of petco cant the same be said of your hitters and new Yankees stadium.
Honestly, this discussion is a mot point until a possible matchup until the WS so if both of us meet up i expect a good discussion then.
I don’t know what planet you live on, but I didn’t hear anyone claiming that the Phillies were favored in that World Series. And I live in Manhattan.
Just because you live in NY. I live in Boston. Everyone online and most of the people in ESPN and MLB Network were choosing the Phils.
I have faith in the Rox, as im sure many of you have faith in your team….it will be all too exciting down the stretch!