Links for Tuesday, before Roy Halladay attempts to win 20 games for the third time in his career…
- Back in the spring, Derek Jeter told Jack Curry of the YES Network that we won't find him "hanging on" after his ability fades. Jeter is hitting a little better lately, though his numbers have fallen off overall.
- Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe explains that re-signing Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez would help the Red Sox against the American League's best left-handers.
- Not surprisingly, the Brewers will not pursue Joe Torre to be their next manager, according to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (on Twitter).
- GM candidate Kevin Towers is back in Arizona for a second interview, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter link). The D'Backs have discussed baseball with Towers, but not money.
- If you’re wondering why the Blue Jays would consider locking up Jose Bautista, BattersBox’s Dave Rutt can explain. He says the Blue Jays need to build around superstar caliber players to win in the AL East.
Jose Bautista is not a superstar-caliber player. His HR/FB% this year is at 21.3% and his previous high is 18.8%. He’s highly unlikely to reproduce this year’s performance.
What? How is HR/FB% the indicator to determine if a player is superstar-caliber? Pujol’s HR/FB% this year is at 17.8% and his career high is 22.5%. Not saying they’re comparable by any means, but Pujols is clearly not a superstar by your standards…right?
Because he doesn’t offer superstar-level production. Pujols is a lock for close to a 1.000 OPS every year, even if his HR/FB fluctuates. Batista’s numbers have fluctuated so wildly that its pushed him into the upper echelon of players this year, despite the fact that he’s never even had a .800 OPS before this year.
I wasn’t trying to say that HR/FB is the league-wide deciding factor, but instead I was showing that Bautista’s year is a wild fluke and he probably won’t replicate it. How many “superstars” have an OPS below .800?
Oh, I agree I would be hesitant to call him a superstar….I was just questioning your logic behind your opinion. I would definitely need to see him perform at least remotely close to this year’s level for another year before I considered locking him up long term.
Changing swing mechanics usually results in fluctuated FB/GO%/HR/FB%.. ..I agree that bautista will not repeat this stellar season.. but if he can hit .260, 30 HR/100BB, while being a very versatile player for the jays, he can be an important part of a competitive team.
Lastly I also agree that your conclusion is correct but your reasoning is flawed. 3% on a HR/FB% doesn’t make that much of a difference….. having checked that to see if you are correct, i’ve since determined that his previous high for HR/Fb% was 13.8% .. guess the correct numbers makes your argument a bit stronger.
Wow, original comment. You’re only about the 800,000th person to say something to the effect of “He’s a fluke” or “He won’t repeat” or something that makes me think you must have a crystal ball at home. While he’s not a lock to repeat his performance, how do you know? He hasn’t had the opportunity to play regularly before this year. Adrian Gonzalez was a late bloomer.
Adrian Gonzalez had a .862 OPS in his year 24 season, so he wasn’t a late bloomer. Jose Bautista has been marginally productive corner man until this year, his age 29 season. And its not like he went from being a .800 OPS guy to posting a year around .900, he went from having a career .729 OPS to putting up a .998 OPS. That just doesn’t happen, and when it does it’s called a fluke.
We have statistics that can point out things like this.
Not to be a ballbuster, but that sort of thing happened all the time in the 90s/early 2000s. And then it suddenly…stopped. 😉
For the record, no, I’m not trying to link Bautista to steroids…but we’ve come a long way in that this kind of jump wouldn’t have been all that unheard of just 10 years ago.
Statistics also tell us that a team trailing by 11 games in late August shouldn’t be competing in late September. Yet the Rockies have made 2 major comebacks in this decade.
Point is just because we have statistics doesn’t mean all data conforms to it. Yes, statistically speaking Bautista’s year is a fluke… but it doesn’t mean he can’t repeat it.
Which is why not once have I said that he will not repeat it, just that its unlikely. History is not on his side.
and what would history have said for him even hitting 30 HR’s this year…let alone 50??
Excellent post purple.
Using a HR/FB% to determine whether or not Bautista is a superstar is pretty stupid.
However, I don’t think he is a superstar yet in the league. I think he needs to have another good season and really prove himself which I think he can (not 50 HR, but I think he can become a consistent 30-35 HR hitter).
Depending on the price and terms, I would consider locking up Bautista. Not to some 5 or 6 year deal, but perhaps 2-3 year deal with some options. Perhaps something like 3y/27 with a 12 mil club option. Bautista gets security and if all works out, we get Bautista at a discount. win-win
You obviously didn’t read my second comment.
I don’t care if he’s a “superstar.” Anyone who’s gonna have a 50 HR season would be welcome in my lineup. He might not do it every year, but it’s probably worth a shot, especially with Toronto’s ballpark.
What kind of return you think Bautista could bring to Toronto? Let’s see the variables that stand out…29 year old breaking out into elite power hitter (possibly a fluke in some’s eyes?)…one year of team control…positional flexibility…what else?
Personally, I really like what AA’s done so far, but I’m torn whether they should A) keep him with the full intention of competing next year (possibly trade him if he maintains value AND they’re not competing during the year) or B) trade him this offseason for young talent that was absolutely unimaginable going into this year, with the eye on 2012 and after?
Would the Red Sox come calling if they don’t re-sign Beltre? (which I think they should, but we’ll see)
Considering he’s having a career year, they could probably demand a couple of damn good prospects. My bet though is they don’t shop him and if the Red Sox come calling then I wouldn’t be surprised to see the price tag starting with Kelly and Rizzo. But another bet is Bautista isn’t on the list of guys Theo will pursue.
There’s no way the Red Sox buy high on Bautista. I think there’s a better chance that they offer Beltre a 5 yr/100m contract…which I still don’t see happening.
Not that I’m necessarily saying I disagree, but why is there “no way the Red Sox buy high on Bautista?”
Also, couldn’t this also looked at as buying low considering he might actually be an elite power hitter, but teams aren’t sold on that yet?
All this said, I still think Beltre is manning 3B for Boston in 2011 and beyond.
The Red Sox, especially Theo, over-value their prospects too much to give up as much as it would take to get Bautista. They wouldn’t give them up for AGon or Halladay, there’s no way they give them up for Bautista…especially during the off season when they could easily add to the payroll instead.
Well the rumor was the Jays were asking for Buchholz plus half the farm for Halladay and as for AGon I’m pretty sure the only time the Sox made an official run for him was when he was with the Rangers.
I do agree though that I don’t see Theo going after Bautista while the Jays have all the leverage.
Well said.
I’m not a Jays fan, but I hope AA doesn’t overplay his hand for Bautista like his predecessor did with Halladay. He could really turn Bautista’s huge year into something useful for the long term future.
I have no idea the likelihood of such a deal, but it is interesting to think about Bautista’s swing matching up with Fenway park. He would hit a lot things off or over that wall. Check out his hr spread sometime, he hasn’t hit a hr the opposite way all season.
I just checked it out… His entire career at every ballpark, he’s never hit a home run to right field. In fact only 2 of his home runs have been to the right side of center field… and those were very close to dead center.
Guys like Bautista really make me wonder what the Pirates would look like if they didn’t trade or release their best player every three days. There was no way to predict this season coming from Bautista, but it still makes it look like the Pittsburgh front office makes decisions based on what balls a manatee in their office chooses to play with that day.
Probably would still be a utility man. People need to understand he hasn’t just been lucky and started hitting. He’s changed his swing and his bat speed is incredible, I think it’s among the best in the league which is why all of his homeruns are bombs to left field.
Where is the rush to sign him?? There is also 0 need to trade him. He’s athletic, strong defender at various positions and works at it.
Wait this out until next season, say half way to see the performance then.
At that point you determine his value.
Well that’s the issue isn’t it… if they don’t sign him long term now and he repeats his performance next year then he’ll be the lone stand out in an incredibly weak third baseman FA market in 2012. Not saying the Jays couldn’t sign him then but you’d probably have at least a few other teams willing to pay.
Yes, some teams would be lining up to sign him. Having said that, I do think AA is already locating impact players and trade options that would improve the team around Bautista. A slugging 1B would be the ideal position. But, plenty of teams like slugging 1B
Derek, the ability is fading. I bet we’ll see you “hanging on” next year though so you can get that 3000 hit. And for a few years after that.
Actually, I expect Jeter to be better next year than this year. He’s driven enough as a player to not want to fade so quickly, he’ll do what’s necessary to improve his game.
I hope you’re right. I love the Yanks and of course Jeter specifically….but, no one outruns age, sadly. I think he’ll certainly work his tail off to get better, but at some point, it’s just biologically impossible. I do think he has the skillset though to modify his game with his physical limitations to remain a useful, albeit not good/great player …getting the ball up in the air more for bloop singles, realizing when it’s in the team’s interest to throw a sac down instead of swinging away, etc.
Does he not already hit bloop singles and lay down sac bunts for the team?
Yeah, when things are going good, he does. Other times, it looks like he’s trying to put the ball on the ground and find a hole…or use his slowly fading speed to get on base.
Just stating the obvious, but one amazing season does not a superstar make.
If the Jays resign him, just don’t let it be to a dumb contract. If they trade him, just don’t let it be for a lame return.
So Jeter claims he won’t be ‘hanging on’ when his abilities fade. That sounds nice, but unfortunately, he’s the one who will determine when that comes. I truly hope he is honest with himself and steps down at the right time.
I hope he’s this good. We all know what these kind of numbers would have meant in the bad old days. And his stats are kind of hard to buy when the answer to the question why is ‘ just because he changed his swing.’
So he’s making 2.4 what the heck would he get in arbit if it came to that (A 400% increase in pay)?
If Jose was a one dimensional, offensive player, say a DH then a possible extension would be far more dangerous… but realistically Jose made the team DESPITE his offensive abilities, because he was versatile enough to play RF and 3B decently and has a great arm. . For several reasons, he’s improved at the plate making him an important driving factor for the jays.. At this point I think the loyalty works both ways, Jose got a chance to play everyday for the jays and some great coaching. . hard to say if any of his success would have come for another teamThat being said, I think AA sets up a contract and gets a ‘home town’ discount with Beardista… 2 year 16 million dollar deal with a club option for either a 3rd year at 10 mil or 3rd and 4th year at 18mil .. Making his contract either 2/16, 3/26, or 4/34…absolute Worst case scenario, you waste 16 million on a utility player. best case scenario, you have an all star 35 hr hitting outfielder/3b locked up for 4 years at a cheap rateRealistic situation, Bautista comes back down to earth, hits .250 with 25 HR’s while still drawing walks, outfield assists and leadership…. This post better get some likes
Sorry, that explanation for building around a superstar does not apply here. Bautista has power and has always had power, but he isn’t this good.
One season doesen’t make someone a superstar. Look at the year Ben Zobrist had last year, of course it wasn’t like Bautista, but he had 27 HR, .407 OBP, 91 RBI, .556 SLG%.
I’m not comparing these two in any way, just putting them in the post to prove my point. And I also don’t think Joey Bats is a fluke. To become a superstar or a stud you need to have more than one star season.