The Blue Jays have a lot of options when it comes to Kevin Gregg. They will soon decide whether to let him leave, keep him for one year or keep him for two years. After the season, the Blue Jays can buy Gregg out for $750K, exercise his 2011 option (for $4.5MM) or exercise his 2011-12 options at once (for $8.75MM).
Gregg makes things interesting in the ninth inning, walking lots of hitters (4.3 BB/9) but he has a 3.24 ERA with 9.5 K/9 in his first year with the Blue Jays. Since Scott Downs and Jason Frasor are also free agents after the season, the Jays’ ‘pen could easily look considerably different in 2011.
Replacing Gregg's 31 saves wouldn’t be cheap or easy. There are always bargains to be found on the relief market (Matt Capps and J.J. Putz are two recent examples), but quality relievers can command multi-year deals, especially if they close out games. Last year Brandon Lyon, Fernando Rodney and Jose Valverde put together seasons that aren’t that different from Gregg’s 2010 season. As the table below shows, those three right-handers signed multi-year deals worth $11MM or more.
*Gregg’s 2010 numbers are shown. All other numbers are from 2009.
It seems likely that the Blue Jays will pick up at least the 2011 portion of Gregg’s option. He has pitched well, and unless the Blue Jays plan on gambling, they’ll have trouble replacing Gregg for a net cost of $3.75MM.
If they let him walk, they would likely obtain a compensation pick in next year’s draft, since Gregg projects as a Type B free agent. But the Blue Jays are set to enter 2011 with a young rotation and seem likely to complement their starters with a veteran reliever here and there. I’m guessing that the Blue Jays bring Gregg back, at least for 2011 and maybe for the next two seasons.
Let him walk and take the pick.
Let him walk and take the pick.
“they’ll have trouble replacing Gregg for a net cost of $3.75MM.”
You can’t ignore the value of that compensation round pick in this equation. Victor Wang approximated that pick to be worth around 2.65m, so if the Jays can replace Kevin Gregg with a 5m FA reliever they are “earning” 1.5m in value by letting Gregg walk.
“they’ll have trouble replacing Gregg for a net cost of $3.75MM.”
You can’t ignore the value of that compensation round pick in this equation. Victor Wang approximated that pick to be worth around 2.65m, so if the Jays can replace Kevin Gregg with a 5m FA reliever they are “earning” 1.5m in value by letting Gregg walk.
Kevin Gregg is a virtual lock to retain type B status after 2011 given how poorly he performed in 2009 (rankings are based on past 2 years). Delaying a draft pick one season is certainly not good enough reason to turn down a team friendly option.
Bingo! plus he could potentially reach type A
Gregg being Type A wouldn’t really be attractive to teams…
agreed no chance a team takes him on as an A, so in the end you may never see the pick..
agreed no chance a team takes him on as an A, so in the end you may never see the pick..
Gregg being Type A wouldn’t really be attractive to teams…
Bingo! plus he could potentially reach type A
Gregg was better in 2009 in Total Games, IP, and K/BB, and his W+SV and H/9 were very similar…only ERA was significantly different in 2010, so it’s a big stretch to assume he retains compensation status. Anything can happen. You take the pick today and sign this year’s version of Kevin Gregg.
David Purcey, closer of the future
not enough command.. I think he’s the setup man of the future, with Roenicke closing.
more like roenicke setting up for stewart
zach stewart?? The same zach stewart who we just converted to the rotation? The same zach stewart who went 7 innings last night, with 1 bb/10 so and 3 hits??
ya… no chance. Second half of the season he has been every bit as good as the prized kyle drabek.. Because he isn’t stretched out, he should be ready for the rotation 2012, or fill in for injuries/struggles next year. He’s worth way more to the team as a starter then a closer.
We do not want Gregg to become an type A free agent. Suffice it to say, i was very happy when the new Elias rankings showed Frasor losing his type A status as there was no way he would have netted us two first round picks, but now, as a B type we can defintly get a sweet pick outta next years draft for him.
Gregg is gone. Look for AA to trade for his 2011 closer.
Unless it’s low-risk, high reward I doubt it. The Jays are (re)building still, they’re not gonna trade prospects to fill holes unless it’s as stated above. They also most certainly are not going to fill spots with spare parts either i.e. Encarnacion or Lewis.
Yes, i am thinking a young fireballer (what a great word), that is on the path to closerdom.
The Jays will likely never pay 10 million for a closer. Alan Farina, Josh Roenicke, David Purcey are all capable. Closers are the biggest wastes of money in baseball, glorified relievers who contribute very little overall to team wins.
(1) I wasnt referring to a FA signing, but rather, trading for (and paying value) for a young up and comer like Feliz and Bard would have been 12 months ago. Hard to find no doubt, but they will need a top quality late inning reliever to groom. And Bard (for example) was available for the right price.
(2) The pitchers you mention above (aside from Farina, because who knows?) are not going to be MLB closers on a playoff team. Period. Purcey has about 50 solid innings in his career, and has just this season been able to locate his fastball.
I can’t see Gregg of all the reliever FA’s turning down arbitration, especially ones with his past track record and just made 2.75M, plus a raise via arbitration. 2 good years in a row? No offense Jays fans, but as a Fish fan, he’s got to show me he is able to put together consistent seasons anymore.
Blew it last night too…
Does anybody know of a way to find copies of players contracts ?
Does anybody know of a way to find copies of players contracts?