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Greenberg Comments On Cliff Lee, Future Payroll

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As if being in first place with the third best record in the league didn't appeal enough to Rangers fans, new owners Chuck Greenberg and Nolan Ryan have announced price rollbacks on everything from tickets to parking to concessions. That's all well and good, but I don't think anything would satisfy fans more than an extended run of success, and Greenberg told the AP (via The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review) that they plan on pulling out all the stops to retain Cliff Lee after the season to help continue the good times.

"We're fully prepared to bear the cost of [re-signing Lee] — and do it with a smile because we're here to win," said Greenberg. "Right now, the terms are secondary … What matters most now is demonstrating that this is a family."

"We feel like we have a pretty good handle on how to keep this team together with Cliff as a part of it," he added. "It's nothing that frightens us, and we'd be real happy to go into next season with that group and the cost that we project."

Lee remained diplomatic, saying that it's good for the organization to have some stability without ever indicating whether or not he'd like to return. With the possibility of a nine-figure payday just months away, it doesn't make sense for the lefty to do anything but remain completely neutral and keep all of his options open.

Because of all the young, cost controlled players on the roster, the Rangers' payroll this year is just shy of $65MM according to Cot's, one of the lowest in the game. Several players, most notably Josh Hamilton, C.J. Wilson, and Nelson Cruz will be due sizable raises in arbitration next year, but Texas has plenty of young players to fill out their roster on the cheap.

Greenberg indicated that the team will raise payroll in the future, something that's unavoidable if they plan on keeping Lee. He did not give a specific number unsurprisingly, saying it "would be a foolish thing to do because it would be an artificial number." Retaining Lee would put the team on the hook for upwards of $35MM in annual obligation for just two players when you consider Michael Young's salary, so a future payroll of $80-90MM or so isn't out of the question. 

Poll: Jonathan Papelbon’s Future

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Although the Red Sox's season has been sabotaged by injuries, closer Jonathan Papelbon has drawn the ire of fans dating back to his blown save in Game Three of the ALDS last season. His blown save on Thursday was already his sixth this season, a career high, and both his strikeout (8.2 K/9) and walk (3.6 BB/9) rates are the worst of his career. 

With a $9.35MM salary this season, Papelbon will easily command eight-figures next year, his final season of arbitration eligibility before becoming a free agent. With Daniel Bard proving himself a viable late inning arm, the Sox have a replacement already in-house should they choose to part ways with their closer. That said, Papelbon is still one of the game's best relievers and will be very difficult to replace.

What should the Red Sox do with Jonathan Papelbon after the season?

Click here to take the poll, and here to view the results. 

The Dodgers’ 2011 Rotation

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Los Angeles fans might be focused on the closer's position today, but as we look ahead to next season, the Dodgers will go into the offseason with three-fifths of their starting rotation on the free agent market.  Here's a tentative look ahead at what the Dodger rotation might look like (barring injuries or any other unforseen incidents) on the next Opening Day.

Firstly, let's look at the starters who are under the club's control.  Clayton Kershaw can be safely pencilled in as the Dodgers' number one starter next season, so if you hear any news about him this winter, it will likely be the Dodgers exploring long-term contract talks.  (Kershaw is eligible for arbitration after 2011.)

Chad Billingsley's name has been mentioned in trade rumors for everyone from Roy Halladay to Roy Oswalt, but the right-hander has remained in Dodger blue.  Billingsley has paid off the team's faith in him by developing into a solid starter: a 3.59 career ERA and a 2.05 K/BB ratio over five seasons.  He has even shown signs of harnessing his control issues by posting a career-low 3.2 BB/9 ratio thus far in 2010.  Billingsley is making $3.85MM this season and has two more arbitration years left, so he might be another target for a long-term deal. 

Looming over any contract talks for either pitcher (or any offseason move for the Dodgers) is the ongoing dispute over the Dodgers' ownership stemming from the divorce between Frank and Jamie McCourt.  One would think that L.A. would find enough money to lock up their two young starters, especially with the likes of Manny Ramirez's contract coming off the books.  The Dodgers have shown that they've been willing and able to spend a bit in the wake of the McCourt divorce, but if a sudden cash crunch pops up in the winter, it's possible that Billingsley could be swapped instead of given what could be substantial arbitration raises for the next two years.

That leaves the Dodgers' three pending free agent starters: Hiroki Kuroda, Ted Lilly and Vicente Padilla.  If last year was any indication, L.A. won't offer salary arbitration to any of them, though it seems quite unlikely that Lilly or Kuroda would accept.  Lilly seems destined to test the market for a big deal and will no doubt get attention from several teams.  Given the Dodgers' payroll uncertainty, it seems safe to presume that Lilly will be pitching elsewhere in 2011.

Kuroda is approaching the end of the three-year, $35.3MM contract he signed with Los Angeles in 2007, and has been the definition of a solid middle-of-the-rotation pitcher since coming to the majors from Japan.  Kuroda will turn 36 in February and has a couple of DL stints to his name, which will probably keep him from getting a long-term deal.  It's easy to picture a number of teams bidding on the right-hander, so again, the Dodgers could be priced out of the market. 

Padilla has put up very good numbers (3.29 ERA, 8.2 K/9 ratio in 22 appearances) since signing with the Dodgers in August 2009, though his L.A. stint has been marred by a two-month stint on the DL this year with a forearm injury.  Padilla agreed to return to the Dodgers on a one-year, $5.025MM contract for this season, and given his love of pitching at Dodger Stadium, it's possible to see Padilla return on something akin to a two-year, $14MM deal, possibly with an option year and some incentive clauses.

What will the Dodgers do to fill these holes in the rotation?  Help could come from within in the form of John Ely, who threw eight quality starts out of 14 in Padilla's place this season and looked like he belonged in the majors.  Charlie Haeger and Carlos Monasterios also started games for L.A. this year, but Haeger pitched terribly and Monasterios projects better out of the bullpen.

Down on the farm, L.A.'s best pitching prospects seem at least a year or two away.  Right-hander Josh Lindblom (the Dodgers' second-round pick in the 2008 amateur draft) looked to be on the fast track to the majors after he zoomed from A-ball to Triple-A within two years, but Lindblom struggled badly (7.06 ERA) as a starter at Triple-A Albuquerque this year and was converted back into a reliever.

Two Dodger pitching prospects made Baseball America's midseason top 50 prospects list (right-handers Ethan Martin and Chris Withrow) though both are struggling with control issues.  Martin has a 5.7 BB/9 ratio and a 5.57 ERA in high-A ball this season, while Withrow (the #48-ranked prospect in BA's preseason list) has a 4.8 BB/9 ratio and a 5.84 ERA in Chattanooga.  With this relative lack of major league-ready arms coming up, it makes the deal of James McDonald for short-term rental Octavio Dotel at the trade deadline seem pretty curious.

Between the ownership issues and Joe Torre's possible retirement, there are still enough changes to come in Los Angeles that it's hard to predict exactly what the Dodgers will do with their rotation next season.  Barring any payroll increase, however, it seems likely that L.A. will look to low-cost veterans who might take a Padilla-esque short-term deal to revive themselves pitching at Chavez Ravine. 

In his examination of Cincinnati's 2011 rotation, MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith noted that Aaron Harang is likely to have his option declined by the Reds in the winter.  A pitcher like Harang, who has struggled but still put up decent peripheral numbers over the last three seasons, could regain his All-Star form in moving from the Great American Ballpark to Dodger Stadium.  Free agent NL West veterans like Kevin Correia or Jeff Francis (who will likely have his $7MM option declined by the Rockies) could be possible Dodger targets as well.

Tallet, Encarnacion Clear Waivers

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Brian Tallet, Edwin Encarnacion and Vernon Wells have all cleared waivers, tweets Bob Elliott of The Toronto Sun.  We'll overlook Wells since no team will take on his mammoth contract, but the other two Blue Jays could draw some trade interest.

Tallet has a bit more than $500K remaining on his contract, and has held left-handed batters to a .474 OPS this season.  Minnesota just lost Jose Mijares for the next month and could be in the market for a lefty reliever.  The Twins have been connected to the Jays in trade rumors about relievers ever since Joe Nathan went on the shelf during spring training.  The two clubs weren't able to agree to a deal for the likes of Scott Downs or Jason Frasor, but Tallet would be available at a much lower price.

Encarnacion is a bit of a tougher sell.  He has about $1.3MM left on his contract, hasn't hit much (.242/.305/.458) and has an infamously shaky third base glove.  That slugging percentage might lead a team or two to make a call, but unless a contender has a sudden injury to a starting third baseman, there might not be much of a market for the 27-year-old. 

That said, such an injury just occurred in Atlanta.  If the Braves feel they need reinforcements to fill the Chipper Jones void, Toronto could be happy to make a trade.  Moving Encarnacion would likely mean that Jose Bautista gets most of the time at third base for the Jays, thus creating more outfield playing time for Travis Snider and Fred Lewis.

Odds & Ends: Twins, Harvey, Ynoa, Westmoreland

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On this day 100 years ago, the Pittsburgh Pirates and Brooklyn Superbas (today the Dodgers) played what the Baseball Reference Bullpen describes as "the most evenly matched game ever."  Both teams used two pitchers, scored eight runs, and recorded 13 hits, two errors, 38 at-bats, five strikeouts, three walks, 13 assists, 27 putouts, one hit batter and one passed ball.  The game was perhaps fittingly called on account of darkness, thus preserving the total deadlock.

If two teams end up with matching scorecards tonight, we'll know there's some Friday the 13th spookiness at play.  Until then, however, here are some news items…

  • With Jose Mijares out for at least the next four weeks, the Twins may be in need of left-handed relief help, reports MLB.com's Kelly Thesier.  The Twins were one of several teams interested in Scott Downs before the trade deadline, so it's possible Minnesota could revisit that pursuit.  
  • A Mets official tells Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com that talks between the team and first-round pick Matt Harvey will "likely" last right up to Monday's deadline.  Harvey, picked seventh overall by the Mets, is represented by Scott Boras.  MLBTR's Mike Axisa profiled Harvey back in June.
  • Michael Ynoa will undergo Tommy John surgery on August 24, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (Twitter link).  Oakland signed the 18-year-old in 2008 to a contract that featured a $4.25MM bonus, a record high for a non-Cuban international player.  Ynoa made his professional debut this seaon for the Athletics' Arizona League rookie-ball team, posting a 5.00 ERA and 11.0 K/9 ratio in three starts.
  • Red Sox prospect Ryan Westmoreland is making " 'remarkable' progress" in his comeback from brain surgery, reports Alex Speier of WEEI.com.
  • Writing for ESPNBoston.com, Mike Andrews looks at the "age advancement" of certain prospects in Boston's minor league system.
  • Nationals president Stan Kasten criticized the draft pick signing process in a chat with MASN's Ben Goessling.  "The charade, the Kabuki dance nature of all of this is just kind of silly," Kasten said.  "We can do better as an industry, and I think both sides [players and owners] recognize that."  Kasten didn't give any updates on Washington's negotiations with first overall pick Bryce Harper.
  • Could Luis Rodriguez be "the next Andres Torres"?  Fangraphs' Dave Cameron looks at the infielder's breakout season for the White Sox Triple-A affiliate.

Draft Notes: Solis, Klein, Jenkins, Gumbs

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The deadline for signing draft picks is just days away. Teams have until August 16th (next Monday) at 11 CST to sign their picks, and the agreements are starting to trickle in. Here are the details:

  • Talks between the Nationals and second-round pick Sammy Solis are "amicable," and MLB.com's Bill Ladson hears from a source that a deal is close to being worked out.
  • Baltimore has agreed to terms with third-rounder Dan Klein, tweets Baseball America's Jim Callis.  Klein's bonus is worth just under $500K, or as Callis describes it, "second-round money."
  • The Cardinals officially announced their contract with Tyrell Jenkins, writes Matthew Leach of MLB.com.  It was reported earlier this week that Jenkins and the Cards had agreed to terms that included an above-slot bonus price for the 50th overall pick.
  • The Yankees signed second-rounder Angelo Gumbs for $750K, according to Jim Callis of Baseball America. The outfielder gets the largest bonus for any player drafted after the supplemental first round this year.
  • Here's another above-slot deal for an outfielder: the Padres signed eighth-rounder Jose Dore for $450K, according to Callis.
  • Not surprisingly, the Red Sox haven't had substantial talks with Scott Boras about signing Anthony Ranaudo, according to Alex Speier of WEEI.com. Ranaudo pitched well in the Cape Cod League this summer and maintains that he's ready to return to LSU.
  • MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo gives the latest updates on unsigned first round picks. Mayo reports indications that the D'Backs have continued talking to Barret Loux, who failed his physical.
  • Here's our list of top picks to sign.

Gammons On Papelbon, Ramirez, Overbay

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The venerable Peter Gammons appeared on WEEI's The Big Show to discuss a few Red Sox-related hot stove topics.  WEEI.com's Sam Dykstra has the transcript of some of the interview's highlights…

  • The Red Sox will have a hard time finding takers for Jonathan Papelbon this winter if the club decides to install Daniel Bard as its full-time closer.  Gammons predicts Papelbon will get around $12MM for his final year of arbitration, and doubts that Boston would be able to move Papelbon's entire salary plus get a quality return in a trade.
  • Manny Ramirez in Tampa Bay is Boston's "worst nightmare," according to Gammons.  He says that should Ramirez return from the disabled list and be placed on waivers by Los Angeles, Boston would then be faced with the difficult decision of whether or not to risk putting in a claim on their former slugger just to keep him from ending up as a Ray.  The Red Sox could end up being stuck with the approximately $5.5MM remaining on Ramirez's $20MM salary, not to mention the added baggage that Ramirez could bring back to the Boston clubhouse.  Then again, as Gammons describes it, "it may be that Manny doesn’t realize that he has to play and perform to get another contract. We have no indication that he’s understood that after three trips to the disabled list this year."
  • Lyle Overbay is cited as a backup option at first base if the newly-acquired Carlos Delgado can't find his stroke in the minors.  Overbay has cleared waivers and is free to be dealt to any team, though the Toronto first baseman does have a no-trade clause in his contract.

Marlins In Extension Talks With Dan Uggla

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Talks between the Marlins and second baseman Dan Uggla about a contract extension are in the "preliminary" stages according to Uggla's agent Terry Bross (as reported by MLB.com's Joe Frisaro) but it appears as if Florida wants to keep its all-time home run leader in the fold.  A three-year deal appears to be the target of these negotiations; such a contract would cover Uggla's final year of arbitration and his first two free agency seasons.  Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reported last weekend that the Marlins were looking for a deal with Uggla worth around $30MM over three years, but "the sides are far apart" on the dollar figure.

We first heard of these extension talks amidst the Uggla rumors that cropped up before the trade deadline.  Florida was heavily shopping Uggla last winter but now apparently see him as one of the core players that the traditionally thrifty franchise is comfortable with offering a longer-term deal, as they did Josh Johnson last January. 

Uggla has certainly done enough on the field to merit a contract — the .284/.372/.520 slash line that he carries into Friday's play represents career bests in all three categories for the 30-year-old.  Uggla is no wizard defensively (a -4.7 UZR/150 this season) so if the Marlins do lock him up through 2013, they might consider a position switch down the road.  Uggla and the Marlins avoided salary arbitration last winter when the second baseman agreed to a $7.8MM contract for 2010.

Minor League Transactions: Marti, Anderson

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Yadel Marti generated some buzz a couple winters ago when he defected from Cuba. It took a while, but the righty signed with a major league organization. Matt Eddy of Baseball America has the details and other transactions from August 2nd-11th:

  • The Braves became the third team to release Josh Anderson this season. The Reds and Brewers also released Anderson, who has combined for a .448 OPS for those three organizations.
  • The Red Sox released infielder Tug Hulett.
  • The Dodgers released former big league pitcher Bobby Livingston. The lefty logged 56.1 innings for the 2007 Reds.
  • The A’s signed Yadel Marti from Veracruz of the Mexican League. The 31-year-old pitched for the same team as Luis Heredia, a top pitching prospect who’s drawing interest from the Pirates and Blue Jays, among other clubs.

The Dodgers’ Approach To Matt Kemp

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He “was slow to learn to be a professional,” someone who drew the ire of his manager and “infuriate[d] some members of the organization” with his approach. No, we're not talking about Matt Kemp, though similar things have certainly been said about him this season. Various reporters used those words to describe Yunel Escobar before and after the Braves traded him to the Blue Jays last month.

By all accounts Escobar did not fit into Bobby Cox's system. Now, on the other side of the country, Kemp is in a similar situation. Earlier in the week, Joe Torre benched him twice, ostensibly to keep Jay Gibbons in the lineup. That decision probably didn't sit well with Kemp, but it's not what his agent complained to the LA Times about. Dave Stewart, who represents Kemp, suggested that coaches Bob Schaefer and Larry Bowa criticize Kemp unfairly. A trade, Stewart said, might be best for Kemp and the Dodgers.

The Dodgers seem to realize that mid-twenties players who have hit well before will often rebound. Kemp's .777 OPS is less robust than the Dodgers would like and some in the organization have openly questioned his fundamentals, but he still has talent.

Escobar, who was struggling at the plate in Atlanta, has returned to form north of the border if his first 96 trips to the plate are any indication. He has his only three homers of the season as a Blue Jay to go along with a .315/.351/.461 line and strong, sometimes spectacular, defense. 

Just last month, Escobar appeared to be “a negative presence within an otherwise harmonious clubhouse,” a malcontent who wasn't playing fundamentally sound baseball or hitting as well as he should. Braves fans and players may be glad to have the steady Alex Gonzalez at short, but the Blue Jays are surely thrilled to have bought low on a young player with star potential. Plus, the criticisms that followed Escobar earlier in the year have quieted down.

Kemp and Escobar are individuals under different sets of circumstances, so the comparison only goes so far. As the Dodgers know, Kemp has both the talent that made him into an elite player and the tendency to make infuriating mistakes. 

Half of MLBTR voters say the Dodgers should seriously consider trading Kemp, but GM Ned Colletti has the vote that counts. He told the Times that Dodgers are not about to do anything drastic, and have no intention of dealing their center fielder. Kemp will probably continue to make the occasional mental mistake, as Escobar does, but it seems probable that his play will improve and it looks like that improvement will happen in a Dodgers uniform.

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