The Dodgers picked up Cubs lefty Ted Lilly at the trade deadline with the hopes of making a run at the postseason. As they host the Reds at home tonight, they sit 12 games back of the Padres for the NL West crown and seven games back in the wild card chase. Their playoff hopes aren't quite dashed at this point but with Manny Ramirez and Rafael Furcal still sidelined with injuries, things do not look good for Los Angeles.
Earlier today, ESPN's Buster Olney wondered if the Dodgers might try to flip the two-time All-Star to a playoff contender. He notes that Lilly would not clear waivers as he would have several teams interested and points to Philadelphia and St. Louis as possible candidates. With a 1.29 ERA with 8.4 K/9 and 1.3 BB/9 in four starts thus far for the Dodgers, it's no surprise to hear that he is highly sought after.
Lilly becomes a free agent at season's end and based on the Dodgers' actions last season, many observers believe that they will not offer him arbitration. If you were in GM Ned Colletti's position, would you hang on to the hurler to keep your playoff hopes alive or would you ship him to his seventh career major league destination?
The one thing the Dodgers will get by keeping Lilly and not passing him through waivers, are compensation in the draft. I just don’t understand why they acquired he and Theriot and Dotel in the first place. They also should not have traded Brett Wallach.
Why assume that they will offer him arb. They haven’t in the past when it was abundantly clear that the player would not accept (i.e. Wolf).
Keep him for compensation picks. Not too many prospects you can get at this point that would be equal to a first round pick.
i would’ve traded padilla. i’ve read he wants to stay in LA. i’d sit him down and tell him the dodgers want him back.
alas, he went on the DL.
i’d flip lilly –why not.
try to get a catcher and more pitching.
so many holes on this team next year.
Something tells me a month and a half of Ted Lilly won’t net a 2011 starting catcher.
WOULD YOU MAKE THIS TRADE?let’s say it the GM meeting next year….the dodgers approach milwaukee with this offerloney and elyforfielder and manny parraloney would excel in mke — more homers and they’d love his ability to hit doubles.and they need pitching — giving up ely would be harddodgers desperately need a big bat who can actually hit home runs at chavez ravine — and someone (like manny was) who would make those batting in front of him better.milwaukee cannot afford fielder — can afford loneyparra has a disappointment but occasionally pitches very well.i think ely is better though.it’s a win win trade.thoughts?
So you assume MIL is doing this for draft picks + Loney for Fielder and Parra?
no — ely and loney for fielder and parra. do i assume they’ll do it? heck no.
just dreamin’
no. Ely is not as good as you make him and it’s not a win win.
“loney would excel in mke – more homers and they’d love his ability to hit doubles”
Pretty sure that nobody wants to trade a guy who hits HR’s for a guy who hits doubles.
For what it’s worth Fielder has hit 85 doubles over the past 3 years. Loney has hit 93. 8 extra doubles over 3 years is not anything to write home about. Especially considering that the gap between HR’s is 105 vs 34.
Last 3 years 162 game averages:
Fielder: 282/395/535 … 31 dbls … 39 hrs … 318 tb
Loney: 285/345/415 … 35 dbls … 13 hrs … 250 tb
Finally, I’m not sure why you think that the Dodgers can afford Fielder. They have been extremely frugal with their cash outside of Manny. With all their arb guys I doubt there will be room to add another $15m or so to payroll for 1B.
Have you seen Loneys Home/Road split? Someone is gonna get a 850/900 OPS bat with GG defense whenever Loney leaves LA.
long flies go out in milwaukee. they’re fly balls in LA. loney would hit 20+ a year with a more hitter friendly miller park (but i would suppose that cuts down onhis double wouldn’t it/)
are you dreaming or are you high fielder and parra for loney and ely the dodgers cannot afford fielder either, no money no prospects.
No money, yes. No prospects? you are very wrong
name it, your overrated prospects just a few to make a trade for fielder?
Pitchers only:
Zach Lee
Rubby De La Rosa
Chris Withrow
Ethan Martin
Aaron Miller
Allen Webster
Garrett Gould
Ralston Cash
Matt Magill
Uhh I’m a Dodger fan and those guys barely stack up to the top ten farm systems who have pitching coming out of their ear. Gould is getting destroyed in rookie ball, Ethan Martin in High A, Aaron Miller posted a 7+ERA in AA before getting demoted to IE, Withrow not doing well at AA etc. The majority of those pitchers are just names.
Zach Lee is potential. He hasn’t even started playing ball in the minors yet.
I love when people overreact to prospects’s performance in SSS. Withrow is 21 and in AA, with a K/9 of almost 9. He has the problems he had as a 20 year old… Control. But guess what? Most 20 year olds have control problems. He still has ace potential.
Ethan Martin is in a similar boat to Withrow. He is young and inconsistent. That will happen with a guy who is just starting to focus solely on pitching. If both Withrow and Martin struggle next year, then you can start calling them nothings.
A guy like Gould is going to have bad stats in A ball because he is a groundball pitcher. He has the best curve among our younger prospects and has a good FB. Get him outta rookie ball and he will be fine.
Aaron Miller is a LHP who has been a professional for less than a full year and made it to AA. He has touched the mid to high 90s in starts.
Look, the guy asked me to list our high potential prospects. Each one of those guys are either young for their league(especially the ones struggling) or have just started pitching professionally. All 9 of those guys I listed have FOR potential.
And Zach Lee has 3 average to above average pitches, a 6’4 frame with room to grow and control of those pitches. There is a reason White gave him double Kershaw’s bonus
Nonsense. Stop thinking like an American League team – like 1 Manny style homerun hitter is going to make us win it all? Every Dodger team that has ever won has done so as a team; Even Kobe has competent teammates now. Let’s get a jump on getting ready for next year. Keep Lilly – should’ve kept Wolf last year, but he’s stumbled in Milwaukee, & we have a 2nd chance to do the right thing. Lilly’s a perfect #3 behind Kershaw & Bills, & Ely #4 – he’s gonna be great given a chance, mark my words. And although I like DeWitt a lot, Theriot is definitely a defensive improvement as a middle infielder. And we need Podsednick. He’s hitting a ton, & he’s a true leadoff hitter – setting the table night after night. We need the defense & speed because Kemp & Ethier are (or should be) our heavy hitting outfielders. Loney’s great, get ready to have to replace Furcal (with Dee Gordon maybe?), & Blake’s only another year or 2 – wish we could get DeWitt back to play 3rd then. I’m only ok with losing Martin if we get V-Mart – love his dedication, loyalty, & bat. And PLEASE get something back for Manny before we lose him. He’s out the door, & that’s good, but get something. Anything!
But don’t trade Lilly or let him go – give him a 2 year deal, & let’s get ready for next year, & maybe Mattingly
keeping pitchers who are getting older and signing them to potential long term deals is a crap shoot at best (jason schmidt anyone?).
i do think pitchers like dodger stadium — those long balls are routine fly balls.
is having a big bopper in the lineup an american league thing?
adam dunn hit two three run homers a couple weeks ago — not that the dodgers want dunn — but to have that power potential in the lineup every day makes the entire team better.
fielder would be a smash hit in LA — he’s a vegetarian and would fit right in.
when was the last time the dodgers had someone hit 40 dingers?
beltre in 2004 with 48 (juice?)
the duke in 1956 — 43 (different stadium)
dolph camilli — 1941 — 34 (different stadium)
that’s a pretty woeful ability to hit the long ball.
fielder instantly changes the landscape — and opposing pitchers would be forced to pitch to the hitters in front of him — and then around fielder.
I think LA and Mil match up nicely, but not with this package.
A better overall deal would be Kemp, Billingsly for Fielder and Gomez.
You have to remember that the Brewers want a projectable SP. Someone who can log innings and be there a while. Billingsly isn’t ideal, but getting Kemp makes it worth it.
The dodgers get a possible future leadoff man and the big power hitter to replace Manny. It would be interesting what they would do with Loney…maybe LF? Maybe another trade?
You nuts? I wouldn’t give up Kemp for Fielder and Gomez. Much less throw in a decent #3 starter on top of it. 2 years of Kemp and three years of Billingsley for one year of Fielder and, what, a couple years of Gomez. Who I wouldn’t use as anything more than a 4th outfielder. Dude, no thanks!
if this was the deal, loney would need to go to the outfield.
gomez was a complete bust in mke — he’s been replaced by lorenzo cain (gomez is not on milwaukee’s active roster — dl??)
i don’t think the dodgers will give up on bills — even for fielder.
but that might be the name the brewers would insist upon for the prince.
The Dodgers wouldn’t make that trade, what on earth makes you think they want Fielder… especially now, when their season is pretty much over?
john, my initial post was that this was an off-season trade (winter meetings).
Dodgers resign Padilla (wants to pitch in LA) and Lilly (grew up a Dodger fan and has always wanted to pitch in LA) and hopefully get them on somewhat team friendly deals, let Kuroda walk. Sets our rotation as Kershaw, Billz, Lilly, Padilla, Ely. Trade Loney and Martin to Milwaukee for Fielder. Keep Theriot at 2nd, solid D and avg and then youve got Furcal at short. Acquire a 3b upgrade to replace Blake or hope he bounces back and isnt just getting old. Hope Podsednik doesnt opt out of his contract and put him in center next year, put Kemp in right, and Ethier in left. Sign a catcher via free agency. Lineup: Podsednik, Furcal, Ethier, Fielder, Kemp, Blake (3B), Theriot, C, P. Then youve got Broxton, Kuo, Belisario, Jansen in the bullpen. Atleast Carrol off the bench or we can trade him now and see what we can get for him. K Colletti go do it.
blake has been terrible. that’s a big gamble at third.
perhaps beltre would come back — didnt check their ages — but probably similar.
furcal at ss? i know it won’t be hu — but raffy’s been hurt too much to count on him.
“Acquire a 3b upgrade to replace Blake or hope he bounces back and isnt just getting old.” I would much rather us replace him after his huge regression not only offensively but defensively and would LOVE to see Beltre back in Dodger blue after his great season with Boston. Would make our lineup Pods, Furcal, Ethier, Fielder, Kemp, Beltre, Theriot, C, P.. hard to beat. And yeah I still like Furcal at short because yes, he’s been hurt the last two season but for different reasons so it may not be reaccuring and when Raffi’s healthy he’s money. Plus if you dont trade Carroll we’d have him off the bench since he signed a 2 year contract and I think he’s shown he can handle it. Then hopefully after this year we’ve got Dee Gordon waiting in the wings. Only question is what catcher do we go after in the offseason?
V-Mart’s got the bat, & the Dodger loyalty & attitude. Arm strength not so much, but nobody’s perfect
Loyalty? Sorry bud, that doesn’t win ballgames. Who cares?
It sounds like you want to compete, so this is what you’d need to do.
First, no way Fielder gets in LA. Just stop dreaming.
2nd, Kemp is the CF. Putting Pods in CF is just dumb.
Ok, resign Padilla. He wants to come back and I doubt many teams will want to take a flyer on him, even after his time in LA. I doubt we can resign Lilly because he will want his final big deal. Looking for multiple years. Personally, Id give him 3 years, but I dont run the Dodgers. Kuroda is more likely as he has only known LA and will most likely retire sooner than Lilly. Let Ely and other prospects go for the 5th spot.
Offense: Get a platoon partner for Blake. 330 vs LHP but less than 250 vs RHP. You have to rely on Furcal at SS, but I don’t think he ever has another full, healthy season. Get Theriot to play 2b. Keep Martin. His defense and OBP combination is better than anything you will get on the FA market. The FA market will only have guys like Ausmus… old and not worth anything more than 1M, and shouldn’t be a starter. Let Xavier Paul play RF if Pods declines the option. If he doesn’t, he doesnt have the arm for RF, so he has to stay in LF and Kemp and Ethier stay where they are.
If no Fielder and we’re keeping Loney and Martin I think we need someone with more power in the outfield with Manny leaving.
And i was thinking the same thing with Lilly as far as the contract duration, just dont know about the money.
The OF won’t have power until we have Sands or Trayvon in RF. The reason is any power OF will want more than 1 year on the FA market and it wont be worth it with them two coming up
Good call. But I think Lilly would stay if we showed we really wanted him. Wolf would’ve taken a lesser deal to play for his hometown team, & I think Lilly would do the same. Agree on keeping Martin, & there’s no way we pay for Fielder.
But rethink the outfield positions – Kemp in left, Pods in center – or Kemp in right & Ethier in left. Kemp never played CF till the bigs – he was always a corner guy, & getting him back to his roots would likely recharge him. Pods is the veteran
Kemp was great in CF until this year. Give him a chance to rebound. Pods is a veteran? So what? That gonna make him suddenly start running faster or something?
“Pods is the veteran ”
Podsednik is WORSE.
Totally with you on everything except Loney. Got a good year from him, & it’s getting better
I agree with Kemp moving to right and dre to left. Other than that, I think you’re way off. Kuroda should stay, maybe Lilly. Let Padilla walk. He’s not nearly as good as he’s been recently. Plus he’s been hurt a lot, which doesn’t work well with the fact that we lack rotation depth.
Dodgers unloaded what was left of their farm system to make a run.
After the divorce trial, they’ll get to unload what is left of their payroll.
Well Jamie wants half of the team so hopefully the judge gives it to her forcing McCourt to sell the team to someone whos not a penny pincher and actually wants to win
Hopefully “after the divorce trial, they’ll get to unload” the McCourts…
Sorry but I don’t see the Cards giving up the prospects for a month of Lilly. They’ve made their moves and will have to let it play out. They won’t be picking up anyone els.e
Colletti is a dead man walking either way.
I hope so…
Yes if the team is sold. Maybe.. But hes Franks buddy.
A change in ownership is inevitable. McCourt can’t ignore Colletti’s poor record much longer. The Schmidt, Jones, Pierre, Manny, Nomar, and Luis Gonzalez signings were terrible. He’s traded Edwin Jackson (then 21) and Carlos Santana. His only noteworthy draftees are Clayton Kershaw and Dee Gordon (the latter will probably be traded).
I like how the last sentence is worded of this post: “If you were in GM Ned Colletti’s position, would you hang on to the hurler to keep your playoff hopes alive or would you ship him to his seventh career major league destination?”
Imagine how easy it would be to answer if it were worded this way: “If you were GM Ned Colletti, would you hang on to the hurler to keep your playoff hopes alive or would you ship him to his seventh career major league destination?”
The answer to the 2nd wording is, of course “If I were GM Ned Colletti, I would hold on to the hurler to keep my playoff hopes alive.” Ned Colletti is too stupid to realize that the Dodgers are done this year, he’s too stupid to get GOOD, USABLE prospects in return for Lilly, and he’s too stubborn to trade away somebody he just obtained, in that he failed at the trade deadline thinking that he (A) made a good deal to get Lilly, and (B) still had a chance at making the playoffs.
Oh, man. Ted Lilly is in LA because they want to sign him next year too, at least that’s my thinking. They are a little short of ML ready rotation arms, and his high K/fly balling ways play well in their park. I think he stays there the next few years. If not, San Diego would be a great landing spot for him. No way the Dodgers deal him there, though.
I’m laughing at the idea of Lilly going to the Cards. Duncan never likes that kind of pitcher. Lilly most definitely does not pitch to contact, and when hitters do make contact, they produce a lot fly ball outs. No way, no how is he going to the Cards.
Keep Lilly for compensation draft picks. Dodgers have better luck drafting than they do trading. Podsednick will bring draft picks also when he walks.
Loney needs to be traded, but who really wants him? Ya, he gets 90 rbi’s, but look who is batting in front of him. Where else does that kind of production get replicated?
VMart? No way. That is not a smart move. Dead arm and overpriced 1B/DH behind home plate disguised as a C. Good attitude, but not a wise move.
Resign Padilla or grab someone like Matsui for pennies.
Keep Martin. If you have to, move him to 3rd or 1B, ship Loney, and see what happens to his power if his legs aren’t shot from squatting all season. Grab a cheao Veteran (Varitek) for a year to coach the young guys. Martin could spot catch from time to time (25-35 games). People referenced VMart’s attitude being that of LAD, but Martin seems to have the right mindset also. If Martin covered 1B for a season, would LAD be compensated with a 25/25 season and .290 BA? He’s still inexpensive and with the organization being ran amuck, why not?
LAD could always make a move for Werth to fill out the OF. Dunn/Berkman/Pena could be options for 1B also.
Now this has turned to rambling via keyboard…
why would ned trade anyone? HE still thinks we have a shot at the playoffs.
Awful isn’t it? I wish we were still in it, but we aren’t. Replace some of our prospects with anything you can get. PLease!
yup. almost as awful as our team this year.
The Dodgers really need to do something about 3B. I know Blake is under contract another year, but he’s just utterly terrible and, at his age, isn’t going to be getting any better. He’ll be a decent bat off the bench (I guess), but he should not be in the starting lineup.
Beltre would be a stretch with the Dodgers budget and the season he’s coming off of, but there has to be some upgrade path through free agency or trade.
Then get Dunn in the lineup. Either in LF, or 1B and trade Loney for a decent RFer (moving Ethier to LF).