It's becoming common for teams to sign promising young pitchers to extensions, but the Dodgers haven't locked up their young arms with the same frequency as other clubs. Instead, they have generally obtained starting pitchers through free agency this decade (Darren Dreifort, Andy Ashby, Derek Lowe, Randy Wolf, Vicente Padilla and Hiroki Kuroda are some noteworthy pitchers to sign with the Dodgers as free agents since 2000).
It's not easy to develop pitching, and the Dodgers haven't had an overwhelming amount of young starters worth extending, but that's no longer the case. Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw have become two of the team's best pitchers, so they are candidates for extensions this winter.
The last pitcher to sign an extension was a young left-hander, like Kershaw. It's possible that the Ricky Romero extension – a deal that was based on the ones Jon Lester and Yovani Gallardo signed – becomes a model for a contract between Kershaw and the Dodgers. Here's how Kershaw's current numbers compare to the ones those three starters had when they signed their respective deals:
The pitchers are comparable, but Kershaw stands out. He is younger than the other three pitchers were when they signed extensions, he has a lower ERA, more starts and innings, a better strikeout rate and fewer hits allowed per inning pitched. Kershaw's walk rate is the one blemish on his record, but he's walking fewer batters than ever this year (3.9 BB/9).
Romero, Lester and Gallardo were heading into their final pre-arbitration seasons when they signed their respective deals, all of which were worth $30MM or so. This winter, Kershaw will also be entering his final pre-arbitration season, but he will be in position to seek more guaranteed money. After all, he has pitched more innings, posted a better ERA and struck out more batters at a younger age. The Dodgers would do well to lock Kershaw up to a five-year $30MM extension, but Kershaw's representatives would have reason to ask for more.
Al Briggs
after the divorce, colletti is gonna have to pay kershaw over 40 years…
Guest
Ned wont be here after the Divorce. Hopefully the Divorce means sale, and sale means New GM.
Al Briggs
i hope so… for dodger fans sake.
Ferrariman
yeah, because its really colleti’s fault that he isn’t getting money to spend? what is he supposed to do..use his own money?
Guest
Hes a puppet and puppets leave when the puppet master is no more. Okay?
NightManDefenderOfTheSun
Jeff Kent is long gone, my friend. I kid, I kid!
Gibbys_Limp
Yeah, right? Kent had his hand up a puppet master’s (Jamie McCourt’s) ass. I blame him for much of Ned’s early mishandling of the team, as much as I blame Ned.
Dave_Gershman
Clayton Kershaw definetly deserves an extension. Something like 6/30MM. Jon Lester like. Gio Gonzalez also deserves an extension.
JohnPaulP
Lester, Giovanni, and Romero all got around 5/30-31. A six year deal would lock him up for two years of free agency, and with those being the most expensive years it would have to be closer to 40mm for 6 years.
Al Briggs
romero just got 5/30 and you’re proposing kershaw have an extra year and the same money? not gonna happen…
Dave_Gershman
My bad. I meant the same as Lester whatever it was. 5/30.1 or whatever it was
Patrick Newman
Dreifort was actually a guy the Dodgers drafted, and retained (with an insane contract) after he reached free agency.
$1519287
Yeah, but my point is that they didn’t lock him up during his arb years – it was once he hit the open market.
– BNS
Patrick Newman
Fair enough, they did wind up paying the market price for him.
bobraines
from what I recall, more than market price. Boras sold the dodgers on his potential and the fact that a NL West rival was about to sign him.
lakersdodgersyankees4life
We got him on the deal we offered right at the start of free agency that Manny laughed at. They came to us
thegrayrace
Not exactly. The player option was a concession.
lakersdodgersyankees4life
Look at my other response to you
bobraines
I was posting about Driefort, not Manny. Boras got a great deal for DD, at the Dodger’s expense. Gm’s are more wise to Boras nowadays.
lakersdodgersyankees4life
I’m sorry. I got the email and had gotten a bunch regarding the Manny thread, so I had just assumed
JohnPaulP
I wonder how much GM’s take which league/division a player pitches in into account. Certainly Lester and Romero are hurt to some degree (numbers wise) playing in the AL east compared to a player who gets to pitch against other pitchers. That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get more than those other three got because the most important number he has over those other guys is his age. He’d only be 28 when the deal was through.
$1519287
Good point.
– BNS
lakersdodgersyankees4life
Those numbers show why so many Dodger fans get pissed when people won’t call Kershaw an ace, but called Lester and Gallardo aces at the same stages of their careers
Guest
That’s why we don’t listen to them.
lakersdodgersyankees4life
Its simply amazing how little talk most guys get in the NL West
JohnPaulP
No one was calling Jon Lester an ace at the end of 2008 and no one was calling Gallardo an ace at the end of 2009. I wouldn’t even call Gallardo an ace now. There is a difference (at least in my mind) between an ace and the guy who is a #1 on his team.
lakersdodgersyankees4life
Agree on your last point. I think there are only 7-10 aces in baseball. However, ESPN was crowning Lester an ace after 08. Maybe not Gallardo, but Lester was crowned one after 08. Meanwhile, some still think we shouldve traded Kershaw for Lee…
Guest
who the hell thinks we should of traded Kid Kershaw for Lee?
lakersdodgersyankees4life
Saw it during the trade deadline this year and last
J
Gallardo is an ace.
Tim Valencia
wait but Jon Lester is the best pitcher period. I as a RedSox fan abhor statistics that show anything other than my opinion being correct
Gibbys_Limp
LOL, that’s actually funny; however, you are entitled to your own wrong opinion.
Tim Valencia
sarcasm
VincentoFox
I thought Kershaw was completing his third year of ML service time this season and eligible for arb this winter? Was the year he went 5-5 (107.2 innings) not counted towards arb eligibility? Or am I completely lost with understanding this process?
vtadave
Kershaw was brought up in late-May 2008 and did not qualify for Super-Two status, thus his first arbitration year is 2012 and he’s not eligible for free agency until after the 2014 season.
Sniderlover
Wow, Romero and Lester numbers are really comparable.
I think Kershaw could command more money than what any of those guys got because he is younger and putting up better numbers. Dodgers should try to extend him ASAP before he starts getting too expensive.
start_wearing_purple
It was closer than I thought it was. It’ll be interesting to see how their careers will go.
ThinkBlue10
so is kershaw considered an ace yet?
start_wearing_purple
I’m going to say a tentative yes. Last year the only thing stopping him from being called an elite or an ace was his walk rate which lead to him averaging less than 6 innings per start. He’s improved in the right places this year and if he keeps it up over the next couple of years then he could be very well be the most feared pitchers in the NL.
diehardmets
I wouldn’t go that far. Lincecum, Jiminez, Johnson, Latos, Wainright, and Garcia have all allready had greater success at a younger or same age. I’d say Kershaw still has a long way to go.
start_wearing_purple
Actually Kershaw and Latos are the youngest, both are 22. With Kershaw I really think he only needs minor tweaking to become the heir apparent to Sandy Koufax.
Guest
Latos has had more success? Jamie Garcia? Really? LOL to that
lakersdodgersyankees4life
yea, Latos and Garcia have done less. Ubaldo really became an ace this year. Lincecum is having a worse year than Kershaw and is K’ing less and walking more.
ThinkBlue10
wow, hater! your gonna sit there and say that jaime garcia and latos have done more than kershaw? you probably think pelfrey is better as well huh?
J
You are showing your haterade, ignorance or both. How the hell have Garcia & Latos done more when this his their 1st season’s in the rotation full time & this is Kershaw’s 3rd?
You are most off on Wainwright. He was struggiling in the minors at the same age Kershaw has been putting up some dominate numbers in MLB.
diehardmets
No I don’t think Pelfrey is better. The age thing, I don’t know what I was talking about. My bad. But Garcia and Latos have an ERA under 3. I’d rather have them than Kershaw.
And Wainright is the best pitcher in the MLB. Period.
Greg Zakwin
You’re entitled to your opinions.
Even though they’re completely wrong.
Guest
Holy Christ.
easymoney
you think just like there owner and gm don’t know talent
diehardmets
I’d say either 5/35 or 6/40
David Ruckman
Kershaw looks like the #1 in Dodgerland but I am hesitant to call him a true “ace” quite yet. He walks too many, doesn’t go deep enough into games (though he has gotten a LOT more efficient month by month – 6.30 innings per start this year), and still throws too many pitches. His overall efficiency and consistency can improve; Kershaw looks like he can be a legitimate “ace” by the conclusion of next season.Lester, Romero, and Gallardo were in similar positions as they signed their respective extensions, so I feel 5/$30MM or 6/$40MM is more than adequate.
David Ruckman
Addendum: Kershaw has gotten a lot better with pitching more innings per start in recent months. My point was that I want to see him keep that up and avoid the slow/rough start again in 2011.
lakersdodgersyankees4life
His first 5 starts, he had an ERA of 3.07. He then had the horrible game vs Mil where he went 1.1 innings and gave up 7 runs. Since then, he has posted a 2.63 ERA and has had just two starts of going 5.0 innings or less, and is averaging 6.68 innings(133.2) a start in those 20 games. For comparison, Lincecum in that same 20 start stretch has posted a 4.41 ERA and has thrown 10 less innings(6.115 innings/start, 122.1 total). Jimenez? 3.23 ERA in 128 innings(only 19 starts though, so his average is 6.73/start). Carpenter? 2.89 ERA in 146.1 innings over 21 starts, a 6.96 inning/start average.
The only two aces I have found who have better numbers over that time is Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, who has posted a 2.38 ERA in 151 innings, over 20 starts(a 7.55 inning/start average). In Cliff Lee’s last 20 starts(he started the season late and therefore has less starts, so I am going to use his last 20 starts), he has posted a 3.16 ERA in 159.2 innings, an unbelievable 7.98 innings per start.
So, except for Lee and Halladay, Kershaw has been better than nearly every ace in baseball…
Greg Zakwin
Ubaldo’s walked a lot of guys.
Just saying.
bobraines
The dodgers need to lock him up. I don’t know how good he’s going to get, but if he continues to perform as he has the last two or three months, I’m going to be a very pleased dodger fan. He’s still a very young man, too. Lots of upside. I’m not too worried about a 22 year old who can’t go deep and had bouts of wildness. The other night against the reds he settled down, and did quite well (except for that long ball by Votto, but he’s tattoing everyone).
alxn
There’s no reason for Kershaw to not be open to an extension at this point in his career. It will give him security and he should still be able to hit the market for a huge pay day in his prime if he wants.
N1120A
A bit like Felix Hernandez in this respect. Very young when he came up and the clock started ticking.
Dodgermama
Dreifort was an original draft pick of the Dodgers from Wichita State.
johnw
October 30, 2000: Granted Free Agency.
December 11, 2000: Signed as a Free Agent with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Greg Zakwin
He never debated that point, his point was the Dreifort, unlike Kuroda and others mentioned, simply had his services retained as opposed to having begun his career with another team(s).
NYY92
guys a great pitcher.number one for the dodgers.he was notoriously a bad control pitcher throughout his career but as evidenced by his BB/9 this year he has improved.he strikes out a bunch of guys each year,pitches deep into games and best of all is consistent.i say go for it while he is still young
Kyle
Ben, this is awfully close to plagiarism – right on down to the nifty chart you post. MSTI had this exact same thought up August 16. At least throw the man some credit when you do that.
Kyle
Sorry – double post.