A look at the Red Sox players who will be arbitration-eligible after the season…
- First time: Jacoby Ellsbury, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Kevin Cash
- Second time: Hideki Okajima
- Third time: Jonathan Papelbon
Okajima stands a good chance of being non-tendered as the Sox try to revamp a portion of their bullpen. I expect Theo Epstein to shop him around in advance of the December 2nd non-tender deadline. As for Cash, Boston would probably non-tender him and try to re-sign him to a minor league deal if they want him back.
Ellsbury seems to be on thin ice in Boston, while Papelbon is having his worst season. Both players are trade candidates. It might be wise to wait for Ellsbury to rebuild value. Papelbon presents a tricky situation. He's still a useful reliever, and could return to greatness in 2011, but the cost may approach $12MM. The Red Sox have to decide whether to trade him, keep him, or even non-tender him.
Always liked Ellsbury, a lot of tough breaks this year.
Literally!
Same here. It’s too bad people are getting on him the way they are. He just needs a lot of time to heal and hopefully by spring training he will be healed up nice and ready to go. Rushing this guy just won’t work. Give him the time he needs.
I say no way Sox non-tender Paps. He won’t be worth the money, but they are one of the teams that can afford to have a certainty (sort of?) at closer. Worth it to them to keep him and let him leave via FA.
Ells won’t cost much as no record to stand on this year. I have to agree with barromhero on Paps. I think Delcarmin gets traded as he has value and actually could be a decent closer in the NL, and Okajima and Cash get non-tendered.
I don’t know about Delcarmen. A decent reliever in the NL? Maybe. A decent closer? Highly doubtful. He’s had a pretty bad season, and the Sox wouldn’t get a good return for him as a reliever, let alone should they try to market him as a closer. They’d be best non-tendering him, maybe trying to get him to sign a minor league deal. If he walks, it’s not a problem. Like someone above said, the Sox can afford to spend money on bullpen arms.
But Peter Gammons previously said Delcarmen can close for any NL team, now that’s stuck in the head of Red Sox fans everywhere
haha well 2007-2008 he looked like good closer material.
And then the rest of his career happened.
Now he’ll either have a perfect inning or walk the bases loaded. Not exactly reliable.
Sox are trying to rebuild their bullpen you don’t do that by getting rid of one of the best closers in the game. Yes, Papelbon numbers aren’t what they were, but his early career numbers could not be sustained.
As for Ellsbury I think the friction between him and the team has been largely manufactured by the media. After 2011 Cameron and Drew are both gone, given how much they talk about being a different team when he’s in the lineup I can’t see anyway they end of dealing Ellsbury this offseason. Only difference is not nearly as many fans will cry foul if he does get dealt now.
I agree with the comment that the issue with Ellsbury is media created for need of some adversity to write about. The man crashes into walls when he is playing, he is not soft. He has endured 6 broken ribs this year, and was also misdiagnosed when they missed one, and then, it appears he comes back too early? I realize that is in hindsight.
He is a game changer when he is in the game, and I think he will be with the sox for some time….hopefully. If the sox want to get rid of soft players, maybe JD drew fits?
Last thought, maybe the sox medical staff needs to take some responsibility for a number of issues concerning Ellsbury, as well as maybe Pedroia coming back early?
The fact that your a sox fan ragging on Drew means you aren’t a good one. Guy is one of the big reasons they won it all in ’07 and is a very good player.
Drew and Cameron GONE, keep Ell’s,one free agent in the O.F. and one of the youngersters out there is fine,Papll one more year unless as mentioned someone makes a nice offer in the N.L.. Need Martinez and a First Baseman, Anderson?
The Rangers should never have acquired Salty in the first place.
He came from the Braves in the Texiera rental, so I have to agree. I felt like a rape victim after that trade.
I meant the Red. Sox should have never acquired Salty. My bad.
why not? they got him for next to nothing..a couple low A guys..
Those 3 prospects are all actually very good.
I had actually thought those prospects were playing over their heads. That seems to be what I remember at the time at least.
Chris McGuiness is having a very good season and will probably be in AA next season. Ramon Mendez I don’t think has given up a run since he’s been on Spokane. He was also the best prospect in that deal. Has really good stuff. And Michael Thomas might be the next Jason Motte.
The bad news from the Sox’s standpoint is that those 3 will probably rank in the top 20 Rangers prospects next season.
And the rich get richer.
Amen.
Those guys are good prospects, but they wouldn’t be in the Red Sox top 20 next year. McGuiness is the third best 1st baseman in the system, so he was very moveable. Mendez is a real legit talent he has top of the rotation stuff. But chances are he never pans out, and the Red Sox can make that risk. They have crazy starting pitching depth going foward, and they have Kelly, Doubront, Pimentel, Ranaudo, Workman…all of these guys are much more promising than Mendez. Michael Thomas….ehhh. Not a fan. All in all, the Red Sox did give up talent, but they could afford to.
Why don’t you think Mendez will pan out?
I’m a bit more optimistic. I say the Rangers pretty much stole 3 prospects from Theo.
I think that was a even deal. Moveable prospects for a possible big league catcher. I like it.
ATL got smoked
yeah but when they got Elvis Andrus and Neftali Feliz along with him it made it sweet for the Rangers
I meant the Red Sox should have never acquired Salty.
Sox should hold on to Ellsbury, he’s still young and truly has ability. While he continues to have injuries, it’s still early in his career to just give up on the guy. When healthy, besides his hitting and fielding he brings a number of intangibles to the game that many players with more years in the game don’t exhibit. What he needs to do is stay healthy.Should the Sox want to trade him they’ll have no problem finding takers.
You have to give Ellsbury another chance. Those stats are inconclusive because Ellsbury has been ravaged by injuries this year. Kevin Cash is the worst player ever so the Red Sox won’t resign him. Saltalamacchia has been good so they’ll make an effort to resign him. Okajima and Delcarmen have been horrible this year, so they’re both gone. I think Bard’s ready to be the closer so Papelbon will be gone.
I agree Saltalamacchia will be back- but please explain to me when he has been “good”??? Please dont mention his 8 plate appearances with the Sox this season.
I meant to type that he’ll be a good backup.
If Bard’s ready to close, who’s ready to be the 8th inning guy? 7th inning guy? Bard is valuable as the 8th inning guy, and they should absolutely keep Papelbon for another season. Then let him walk, get the two draft picks, and insert Bard as closer.
Dustin Richardson has been pretty good this year, so he may be the 7th inning guy. As for the 8th inning guy, Arthur Rhodes would be a good fit.
I mean, Papelbon was an absolute stud when he first broke in. Maintaining those numbers would be difficult for anyone. So while it’s true that his stats may have declined over the years, I think all he’s done is come back down to earth. He’s still as good a closer as anyone not named Mariano Rivera or Billy Wagner r/n, and seeing how the Sox bullpen is as bad as it as…I think you guys better be careful what you wish for when you think about trading him
Not that Bard couldn’t close either, b/c he looks fantastic at the back of the pen. But having Paps as the closer and Bard setting up is much better than having Bard closing and Okajima/Delacarmen/Ramirez/whoever setting up. The Sox can afford w/e rediculous salary he’ll command next year
A trip to the NL, (or out of the AL East for that matter), might do a guy like Papelbon some good. Yes, his numbers have been on the decline for some years now, but I’m not sold that he’s on a path to completely fall off the map. He’s played in the AL East for years now, and teams have adjusted to him.
He hasn’t had a good year, and he’s due a hefty raise in arbitration, but I’m sure NL teams would be chomping at the bit to get a hold of him. Contenders that have had troubles out of the bullpen this year, especially at closer, would probably take a chance on him. If the Red Sox are really committed to dealing him, they won’t be able to demand a huge package. Teams like the Phillies, Mets (?), Braves, Cardinals, Dodgers (?) could all be in the market for a closer. Sure, there are certain hurdles they’d have to overcome, like the Phillies and Dodgers already having committments to closers, money situations, etc.
Still, I don’t see why an NL team shouldn’t take a chance on Papelbon.
simple. He costs too much.
I’m sure the Sox would be more than happy to eat some of his salary if it means getting at least one decent prospect in return.
Teams will all be looking for their ‘Soriano’s’ to close out games, not a guy with a hefty contract on a steady decline..
Speaking of Soriano.. Anyone else see the immaculate inning? 9 pitches, 3 SO’s, niceeee
That guy’s a beast!
Soriano is a fluke. People kill Papelbon because of his xFIP this year, well Soriano’s is .03 less than paps.
Almost all of his blown saves were when the Rays and Yankees won, when you take that into account even beaten up they would be competing but sit 5 games out going into Sept. they will keep pace and wont make the playoffs by no more than 3 games, tough, and I blame Paps key blown saves
That’s a ridiculous argument, man. Soriano was a diamond in the rough, and the Rays cashed in for him. Teams don’t have the option of going, “Should I acquire a guy who’s pitched in the AL East for four years with excellent to decent numbers, or take a risk on a guy who may or may not pan out.” Soriano was coming off a great year in ’08. There aren’t many guys available like that, especially one’s that are available.
Why would the Red Sox eat salary, lose a year of performance, and lose two potential draft picks just to get one decent prospect?
Also, I’m sick of hearing how no one would pick up Papelbon on a one year deal. Every single year people give declining closers huge money. The Red Sox wouldn’t get much value, but there would absolutely be takers out there.
If they eat at least half of what Papelbon will get in arbitration, they’d be saving somewhere around 5 – 6MM dollars. Assuming that he’d be a Type A free agent after 2011 is just that, an assumption (although a good one). I like you slipped that “lose a year of performance” in there as well, as if Papelbon hasn’t been on the decline in the AL East since 2007.
I’m not sure if you read my post wrong or what, but it was about how I believe Papelbon still has value… outside of Boston / the AL East. The Red Sox already have Daniel Bard, who’s been far more productive than Papelbon, and projects as a great closer. You can make the argument that the Red Sox can just slot Bard in as closer and keep Papelbon in the pen, but that wouldn’t make sense with Papelbon earning close to 12MM in 2011. Instead, they could save at least half of that in trading him, get a decent prospect, and upgrade the rest of their bullpen. Getting 2 solid draft picks for him in the 2012 Draft is far from a certainty. Saving money is not.
LOL Kevin Cash… I’d love to see the arbitration numbers there.
They should keep Ellsbury. He’s one of those guys you go to the ballpark for. He should play with a big market team and Boston is just the place for him. Bard seems to be ready to take over the closers-role. With the 12 mil they save by letting Papelbon go, they can get a better bullpen en maybe go after Crawford.
Thin ice? Really?
He had a major injury that lingered. A guy who can steal 70 bases a year is not someone you give up on readily. With his potential, trading Ellsbury this season, with his value at its lowest, would be completely lacking in sense, especially considering how much his arbitration figure will have fallen with him having played a total of eighteen games this season.
As cliche as it sounds, the Sox offense IS an entirely different beast when Ellsbury’s in there wreaking havoc on the basepaths. True, they’ve had one of the best offenses in the game this season, but if he was in there every day? The versatility he brings to the offense is something you don’t just throw away.
I think Pap’s situation is pretty easy. He can no longer live exclusively on his fastball. 1. MLB hitters will hit it if they can sit on it, and 2. It has flattened out a bit, and no longer has quite the amount of movement that it once showed.Papelbon needs to spend some time incorporating a quality second pitch. Hitters laugh as the splitter goes by. They seem to be able to predict when it’s coming based on the count. His slider isn’t featured enough to be taken seriously. Can you imagine if he spent an offseason learning a change-up? He’d be a completely different pitcher in ’11.I know it’s a bit of “pie in the sky” thinking…. but I do think he needs to spend some time on his secondary pitch(es).
I think the changeup is the ONLY pitch that could help him stay relevant next year. You’re right – he’s just not a really good pitcher anymore.
The reason he was so dominant was because his fastball was heavy and had decent movement. He just doesn’t have that anymore…
That isn’t true at all. His fastball has just as much movement as it did in 07 (-7.9 in 2010 and -7.3 in 07) and it is actually moving LESS than in 08 and 09 (-8.5 and -8.3) so not sure how that is a problem.
And you say Pap needs to throw more secondary pitches yet he has thrown 9% less fastballs since last year and brought his splitter back, which you say has been terrible despite the fact it has been more valuable than his fastball this year and has caused hitters to swing outside the zone 10% more often than last year where he only used his splitter 9% of the time (as compared to 19% this year).
Try using stats to back yourself up next time.
Pap’s trouble is that he set the bar too high too soon, he went from being elite in his first couple years to simply being very good the past couple of years.
His only problem is his command. Which is something that can be reclaimed.
Im really tired of hearing about Jacoby being soft..anyone remember when he ran face 1st into the RF fence in toronto, while Nancy was out with one of his many ailments, and had a face full of blood but kept playing and took no time off..the kid has missed a total of 26 games his 1st 2 full seasons in the ML…he gets broken ribs, which are the hardest thing to heal, and everyone calls the kid soft..So, for those who think Jake is soft…Get over yourselves and try supporting the players that deserve it….Some of you sound like that idiot on 98.5..
Keep Ellsbury, let Paps slide. Bard to closer.
wow,im a yankees fan myself and im getting sick of people trashin paps because hes had a bad season.just like i telll my friends if your not absoloutley dominant and unhittable and your team that the guy plays for isnt winning theres alwys someone to blame people act like someone just cant have a bad season.your either deemed washed up or on the verge of breaking down.even when mariano was sliding a little this year at the begining of the season people were saying hes old and lost his stuff,now look what hes done.people are way to quick to pass judgement
Papelbon from 2007-10
K9: 12.96, 10.00, 10.06, 8.72
BB9: 2.31, 1.04, 3.17, 3.35
FIP: 2.34, 2.01, 3.05, 3.79
xFIP: 2.90, 2.38, 3.98, 4.02
That’s not a “rough patch”, that’s called regression. And please don’t mention Papelbon with Rivera, Rivera is 41 years old and still better than him.
still all good numbers.
i still dont think that hes regressing,people are just figuring his stuff out more.he doesnt throw his splitter enough he has relied on his fastball.coming from a yankees fan i still think hes a great pitcher and the sox would be dumb to let him go for nothing.wow shows how much you read bud.i dont think i said pap was better than rivera,thats not true at all,im saying there was a stretch this season where rivera wasnt doing as good as usual and people were saying he was regressing or didint have the same stuff,now look where hes at.still putting guys away.so dont sit there and tell me that papelbon is not a good pitcher because he still is no doubt
Good numbers for a reliever? He is ranked 71st in FIP for relievers- that means there are 70 relievers out there having better seasons than Papelbon. He was 26 last year, so 25 were better than him last year.
And I’m sure any of the 32 teams would rather have Papelbon than any of the 70 guys ahead of him (outside of Mo). You’d be kidding yourself to say otherwise
I can’t take you seriously if you don’t put a space between sentences.
And about the reading thing, Zack didn’t say you said pap was better. He just said it’s not fair to compare the two anymore, mainly due to Pap’s regression. Yes, regression. Numbers don’t lie. A 4 year decline cannot be attributed to a “rough patch.” A few outings, weeks, even a month or so, fine. But four seasons of decline? No.
He was a great pitcher. Now he’s a good pitcher. That’s regression, my friend, whether you like to admit it or not.
To be fair, its a 2 year regression. Why is everyone saying four? His 08 numbers were as good or better than his 07 numbers. Yeah his K’s were very slightly down, but he cut his walks in half and all the rest of his numbers were great. Look, I think Papelbon is declining and won’t ever regain his elite form, but it isn’t fair to call this a four year regression. He was one of the top 3 closers in the game in 2007 and 2008, and he started regressing last season.
You know what, you’re right. It really is 2 years rather than 4. My bad.
Regression =/= 2 rough seasons. They tweaked his pitching motion prior to 09 it cause him to have command problems. Not something that is irreversible.
If the Sox are actually thinking about trading Ells, Walt Jocketty needs to get on the phone in winter.A guy like this is what the have been lacking for years a guy who can hit for average,Get on base, And steal also he can field pretty well to.This would be a buy low move on anyone whose interesting because i believe Youk called Ells out about his injuries sounds like the Moose calling out Dr. Dl Carl Pavono but that’s just not good chemistry but im willing to say ells will be in a red sox uniform next year
They said they aren’t going to trade him when his value is low so after he goes out for the season his value couldn’t be lower. Theo isn’t going to trade him.
Yeah i know thats why i said you will see him in a sox uniform next year
trade papelbon, elsbury, money to alanta for minor, cabrera, and a ptbnl.
better be a lot of money, but I could see Wren overpaying for a guy like Papelbon
they do need a closer, and elsbury would be a perfect fit.
Lol…no. The Red Sox don’t need a closer, they have Bard waiting. Melky Cabrera is a joke, and Minor is a great talent but not for Papelbon, his future 2 picks, and Ellsbury. Just no chance.
I think Potrzeba meant the Braves will need a closer…which they will, but I would rather try and convert Venters or give Kimbrel a shot than for Wren to pay Paps’ bloated salary.
Melky Cabrera? Are you nuts he’s terrible. And the Sox are pretty set in the rotation with Beckett, Lackey, Buch, Lester, Dice-K, with potential fill ins with Doubront and Bowden (who they haven’t given up on) They don’t need Minor. That trade would be beyond horrible for the Sox
and I think it would be beyond horrible for the Braves. go figure
Paplebon will save 35/36 games in 2010, with an ERA under 3.00 and about 9so/9inn. Not too shabby for a guy still under 30. He has 3/4/5 more good years ahead. Theo will keep him unless he is part of a major trade involving a swap of closers and other position players with the likes of, say, the Cubs or Dodgers. Bard has closer’s stuff but who is to say that he has a closer’s temperment. A guy has to be thick skinned to want the continuous diet of tension that comes with the closer’s job. He seems to be very comfortable as the closer’s set up guy. As for Ellsbury, he will be back for ST in 2011. He was just coming into his own in 2009 and will look to pick up where he left off before his ribs got crushed by the “man of iron” (Beltre).
My Predictions:We Keep Elsbury for one more season or till the July 31st Deadline next season. I think we make a legitimate run at Carl Crawford, so if we do lost Els, it wouldn’tbe as bad, whether it be to trade, or to injury.I See us keeping Paplebon next season, yes he will be overpaid for, but I seriously don’t see Bard having the emotional aspects of a closer. It’s a tough thing to go out there day in and day out, and close. Anyone notice that Felix Doubront has a Save or 2? I know that they really didn’t want to use Doubront in that situation, but they did, could he possibly the next starter made closer?I Really wouldn’t mind taking a chance with Baltimore’s Mike Gonzalez. I understand he was injured this year, but when healthy he is a very solid reliever. Then fill out the rest of the bullpen with solid veterans, and with bard and maybe Dustin Richardson and Felix Dubront, have once again one of the best bullpens in the Majors.I would like to see Delcarmon held onto, I think we demote him to AAA Pawtuckett and have him work on his stuff he can be a key contributor to once again, and if an injury happens to another reliever, he can be ready to go.I think Okajima and Cash should be non tendered. Maybe sending Cash to AAA or AA, if they want him in the system for Tim Wakefield, (who even though I love the guy, I just wish he would retire…) If we do some of the things mentioned, Bulk back up the Bullpen, sign a Bat or Two, bring up some prospects, we can make a legitimate run at the 2011 World Series.
a legitimate run at Carl Crawford, There are at least five teams that want him. It’s a matter of where he wants to play. My early guess is one of the LA teams. But some agents go for every dime so poss NY/Bo may figure if it’s just about money. Ellsbury will likely be traded this winter if some team wants him based on his MLB leading SB in ’09. If not he can play in good health for the first half of ’11 and get his cred back. But I do think he’ll go for several reasons.
I am pretty sure Delcarmen got traded to the Rockies.
Yes, indeed. I’m surprised it took this many comments for someone to point that out.
This was originally posted on Aug 24th, before Delcarman was traded.
Why is it that arbitration cases automatically get raises? Papelbon wasn’t worth his current salary in 2010, never mind getting $2.65M more.
Of course, delcarmen is with Colorado.