TUESDAY, 12:07pm: The Sox are focused on Dunn, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, and they're not in on Prince Fielder or Lance Berkman.
MONDAY, 11:15pm: White Sox GM Kenny Williams has been trying “desperately” to acquire Adam Dunn from the Nationals, according to Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times. Cowley’s source says the White Sox don’t want to move Carlos Quentin or Gordon Beckham to acquire Dunn, but would move any minor leaguer, and would trade Dayan Viciedo or Daniel Hudson. But Williams still finds that Nats GM Mike Rizzo is asking a lot, according to Cowley’s source.
"The problem Kenny is finding out is that Rizzo is acting like Dunn is Ryan Howard,'' the source said.
Though the White Sox appear to have interest in Dunn, Williams said that he isn’t optimistic about completing deals this summer.
"If I'm being honest and completely transparent right now of the price that is being asked for some of the players that we've inquired about, for us, it's more detrimental to our present and our future than we'd like,” Williams said.
The White Sox could definitely use an upgrade at DH, but as Williams pointed out, the team could still add a player in August. The White Sox acquired Alex Rios from the Blue Jays in an August 2009 waiver claim.
is ryan howard really (that much) better than adam dunn?
Only in paychecks and general popularity.
not at all.
Yeah, look at the numbers. Dunn doesn’t hit QUITE as many homers, or have quite the average, but he has been nearly every bit as good as Howard, and they are the exact same age. Both play crap defense too. Dunn will never command the salary of Howard however. I would take Dunn over Howard each and every time though myself. Just like his skills.
just put a really good lefty against them and watch them squirm.
True, but you can say that about almost any lefty power hitter out there.
Look at how many times Dunn has not driven in a run with RISP. he either walks or strikes out. Dunn is “Mr Anti-Clutch”… can you say the same thing about Howard?
Dunn has had only 100 opportunities with RISP, as opposed to 200 with no runners on. Its not his fault his team sucks. Here are the comps with Howard:
baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=dunnad…
baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=howarr…
I’d say its pretty equal on those terms, however, playing Adam Dunn instead of Ryan Howard would have won your team 1 full more game this season, as Howards WAR is 2.0 and Dunn’s is 3.0.
Nothing wrong with walking with RISP. If you don’t get a pitch to hit it’s better to draw a walk than get yourself out swinging at pitcher’s pitches.
And Howard strikes out just as much in “clutch situations” as Dunn.
Lets switch the team on both and see how they do??
The funniest part of this piece is that I got into an argument with my friends last week about how similar/different Dunn and Howard are. Classic quote.
What’s wrong with comparing Dunn to Howard? They’re both 30, they’re both mashers. Howard may hit a handful more home runs any given year, but Dunn walks a little more. Howard drives in more runs, but he’s been surrounded by much better players throughout his career. I think they’re very similar players. Am I crazy?
Edit – Apparently not. ; )
Howard has a worse platoon split and is likely to decline earlier because his peak began later. Dunn has a worse reputation because they kept trotting him out to the outfield for so long and he doesn’t have Utley, Rollins, and company as career-long teammates.
The “Howard drives in a ton of runs because he’s surrounded by good players” argument is kind of crap. The same people who use this argument will also tell you that Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth, and everyone else in the Phillies lineup have inflated numbers because everyone else on the team is so good. Which in case you haven’t noticed, is not true this season. The Phillies can’t score runs. And yet Howard leads the NL in RBI anyway.
RBI isnt a very good stat to use in this day and age.
The Phillies are fifth in the NL in runs scored, and this is with Chase Utley on the DL. And yes, lineup construction is one of the most important factors in determining the RBI statistic, which is one of the reasons most people don’t take it seriously anymore; everyone understands that it’s as much about what the team does as it is about what the individual player does.
RBI isn’t the most important statistic, but not valuing it at all is just as silly as thinking it’s the greatest statistical indicator of offense. Ryan Howard is very good at batting in runs. He is as good at it with the 5th best offense in the league as he is with the first, which is evidence that Howard has at least SOME control over how many RBI he gets.
RBI only has value in fantasy baseball. It is not a useful statistic for gauging player ability.
It is worth dismissing. Totally. RBI’s mean nothing.
You can look at other metrics to determine whether a player drives in runners at a good clip relative to his opportunities.
RBI’s assume that the following situations are all equal:
1. Speedy runner on 3rd base and less than two outs
2. Slow run on first base and 2 outs
3. Bases loaded and no outs
I think we can all agree that getting an RBI in situations 1 and 3 is fairly simple. A base hit, fly ball, or even an infield grounder could generate an RBI. While when you look at the 2nd situation the only chance you have for an RBI is a double, triple or home run. Scenarios 1 and 3 you get credit for a weak infield out. Scenario 2 you get credit only when you get an extra base hit.
Context means everything in baseball.
Prices seem to be through the roof this year… David Dejesus is being sold as the next Willie Mays… Prince Fielder is being sold as the next Cecil Fielder… oh wait
hahaha
What about Manny Ramirez? Just watching baseball tonight and seems to be some chatter on Manny wanting out of LA. He wants to DH only. This would be an interesting discussion for MLBTR to pick up on.
Seriously, at this point is there anyone that cares what Manny wants? This is his last year in MLB, he just hasn’t figured that out yet.
I think it’s his last year only if he prices himself out of a contract this offseason, which of course, he is capable of. But, if wants to just play instead of get paid, and accepts a 1 year deal in the 7-9MM range, I can see a team offering him that to be their DH. A .900+ OPS is still very impressive.
Screw Dunn. Even Berkman or Delgado would be an upgrade over Kotsay.
Delgado makes a lot of sense!
Funny that insiders are using Ryan Howard as shorthand for stud when most people in the outside, saber community dismiss him with the wanking hand gesture.
On topic, I like Dunn where he is. DC seems to suit him.
Dunn would maximize his value by not standing in the field. He’s 30, its time to make the switch to DH full time.
If the chisox really are offering the entire farm, the nats would be really dumb to not raid the system. WSN are about 2 years away from being spectacular, and really should grab as many as they can from Flowers, Hudson, Mitchell, Morel etc
They “would move any minor leaguer”?
Viciedo, Hudson, and Beckham are up. Sale’s ineligible. Mitchell is injured. “Any minor leaguer” ain’t exactly a smorgasbord.
actually the got rios in a waiver claim
Ryan Howard isn’t a particularly good comparison… namely because Dunn’s been better than Howard this season, and also because any (sensible) GM would be frantically trying to unload that idiotic Howard contract.
Then again, Amaro is the one who signed him to it. Hell, Cowley’s source probably IS Ruben Amaro Jr. Who else would use Howard’s albatross contract as an example there?
And yet in the real world Howard is considered a standard deviation above Dunn. Dunn – on the free market – got 2 years $20 million from the backwater Nats. And it’s not like people were clamoring to sign him for more. Howard, meanwhile, got Dunn’s free agent salary ($10 million a year) is his first year of arbitration in 2008, and was going to up it to $18 million in his second arbitration before the Phillies signed him to his initial, long term deal.
Which is to say, the free market values Howard over Dunn. By a lot.
Thats because Dunn is an albatross in the field. If you’re going by hitting then their numbers are pretty similar.
Not as if Howard’s exactly a defensive whiz himself… he’s average at best over at first base. Granted, Dunn is a butcher (though playing respectably this season in a limited sample size), but when you’re talking about the difference between a 2/20 contract and a 5/125 contract, there’s no justification.
I’d love to be a part of the bizarro world where Ryan Howard is worth an additional three years and $105MM than Adam Dunn. Sounds like an entertaining place.
If Howard lives up to HALF of that value, the Phillies should consider themselves lucky.
You guys act like there’s some sabermetric or at least statistical formula by which contracts are ideally calculated. Even though I agree that Howard is overpaid and Dunn underpaid, you have to understand that there were dozens of factors that went into each of their salaries, only one of which was statistical performance. That’s why you can’t treat salary as if it were a normal quantitative baseball statistic.
howard is no wizard in the field. i’d take dunn over howard
I’m more concerned with the ease that Williams seems like he’ll unload Dayan with. Do you really think that A) Omar will continue to play everyday at third and B) when he returns, Mark Teahen will do anything to earn that contract he got?
Kenny made a couple of shrewd moves last year, especially getting Rios off waivers. I’m hoping he doesn’t wash it away by trading the future for a guy like Dunn who isn’t likely to be around past 2011.
im sure the sox would move any minor leaguer for dunn considering how horrid there farm is
If Williams had resigned Thome there wouldn’t be a problem Stupid situation right now they are showcasing Hudson and Viceado right now to make this team better right now.
The big problem there no depth at the minor league level to make the big deals anymore.
Rizzo is nuts though 3 to 4 top ready guys for Dunn and he is not even signed past this year.
Quite the contrary, actually. Rizzo is basically throwing down a gauntlet, and with good reason. The notion that the Nats still prefer to re-sign Dunn in the offseason isn’t completely unrealistic. The revenue stream is certainly there for the team to increase its payroll. As a Nats fan who doesn’t live in the DC area, I feel that trading him and securing an asset or two that will be ready to contribute for 2012 would be optimal. However, the fanbase that actually lives in the DC area will be a lot less likely to contribute their hard-earned dollars to the cause by showing up at the games if Dunn is traded. Rizzo has to take this into account a bit.
More importantly (and I DON’T support this line of thinking), the realization that the club is likely to get two Top 50 picks out of the deal if they’re unable to trade or re-sign him (assuming that they offer him arbitration and he rejects it… given that Dunn wants a long-term deal and is reportedly going to be seeking a 25% raise, the math says that those are safe gambles) gives him value beyond a simple rental. Dunn currently projects as a Type A free agent, and there’s little reason to think that’s going to change in the season’s final 2.5 months.
The Nats’ most recent gamble with a similar situation (Alfonso Soriano) netted them Josh Smoker and Jordan Zimmermann. Smoker hasn’t quite developed as quickly as the Nats would have liked. Zimmermann is currently rehabbing from Tommy John surgery…. Zimmermann was the organizational pitcher of the year in 2008 (his first full professional season) and began 2009 in the Nats’ rotation. He went 3-5 with a 4.63 ERA [an unlucky one at that…. 3.59 FIP, 3.39 xFIP] and a 92:29 strikeout to walk ratio in 91 innings as a rookie. You could argue that, as a 23-year-old rookie, he was the Nats’ best starting pitcher last season.
This should be something of a cautionary tale. Lightning is unlikely to strike in the same manner and the same place twice. The Nats were extremely fortunate with how Jim Bowden’s failure to move Soriano before the deadline in 2006 worked out. I’m hopeful that Rizzo isn’t going to sink all his chips into hoping for the same stroke of good luck.
Rizzo needs to make absolutely certain that the return he gets back in a deal for Dunn is worth more than two Top 50 picks in the 2011 draft, which is by most accounts far deeper than this year’s draft was. Is Viciedo worth that? Not by himself. Is Hudson? We’re probably getting warmer. Certainly nobody else (I’m glad the Flowers talk has died down) that the White Sox have (and can legally trade) in their minor league system really comes close.
Admittedly, if I were in Mike Rizzo’s position and the White Sox offered both Hudson (a probable #3 behind Strasburg and Zimmermann by 2012) and Viciedo (a probable replacement for Dunn at 1b), I’d find it difficult to walk away. Barring those two both being in the deal though, I’d think that he’d have to have either Beckham or Quentin, as he’s apparently been asking.
Rizzo is valuing Dunn at 2 months of prime production AND two Top 50 draft picks. That’s exactly how he should be valuing him.
I think bluelineswinger pretty much has it nailed. I would just add that
1) the way Rizzo operates, if there is any deal it will be right at deadline. We really don’t know what Rizzo is prepared to accept or for that matter what Williams is prepared to give. Most of what is being said and reported now is just blowing smoke.
2) the Nats have a much larger and more experienced scouting and talent evaluation operation than they did when Bowden was GM and Soriano was signed away. I’m sure Rizzo and his people believe they can do much better with the draft choices than was done in 2007 (not that that has turned out all bad).
I’ll play Devils’s Advocate.
Dunn was coming off a similar type season when he left the D-Backs. He was NOT a hot commodity as everyone passed until the Nats finally inked him to a 2 year deal near the end of FA. That was without any draft pick compensation so teams were free to sign him without compromising their 08 draft.
All Dunn has done is played to his steady and consistent levels. So far, he’s playing above previous levels but I’d bet he ends up close to his norms.
The Nats could offer him arb. If I’m Dunn’s agent I would look long and hard at arbitration. He made $12m this season. Good chance he could ask for, and win, an award in the $14-15m range. If that happens the Nats will continue plugging away with a slightly higher payroll and no new pieces to help in the future. Not good.
There is NO way that Dunn is going to land a 4/$60m type contract. If he could only land a 2/$20 deal before a raise of 50% and 2 more years won’t be coming from anyone.
Dunn’s in a really interesting spot. The sabermetric community loves his offense but is acutely aware of his major defensive deficiencies (this half season not withstanding). The more traditional guys will focus on RBI’s and realize that he isn’t that true middle of the order type guy that they want.
Dunn in 2008: .236/.386/.513, -30.3 with the glove… 1.0 WAR
Dunn in 2010: .286/.374/.575, -0.6 with the glove… 3.0 WAR
There’s obviously about a third of the season still to be played, so those 2010 numbers figure to change (yes… likely coming down) a bit. Dunn has produced a .386 career wOBA. In 2009, it was .394. This season, it’s at .403. Perhaps most importantly, his defensive deficiencies went through the roof in 2008 and 2009, as his defensive value was a -30.3 in 2008 (his previous walk year) and an atrocious -37.1 in his first season in Washington. While it’s a small sample size, the move to first base seems to have masked that considerably, as he’s a -0.6 so far in 2010.
What that has done is take that consistent production with the bat and removed the negative defense from the equation (a trade to an AL team where he would presumably DH would completely eliminate defense from the equation). Prior to the drastic defensive dropoff (Dunn was never GOOD in the outfield, but he wasn’t nearly as poor prior to 2008), Dunn averaged 3.1 WAR per season. In 2008 (again, that walk year), Dunn’s defensive deficiencies took that powerful bat down to 1.0 WAR for the season…. or far below his norm. Thus far this season, Dunn has been a 3.0 WAR player, or far better than he was in 2008.
The only other problem I would see with your argument is that, while Dunn’s average annual value is $10 million, his 2010 salary is $12 million (for perspective, his 2008 salary was $13 million). Dunn expecting $15 million per season would be a 25% raise over his salary this season.
While the economy certainly hasn’t completely turned around, the talk in the 2008 offseason was that salaries were going to be down quite a bit all-around. Of course, the Yankees still spent (Sabathia, Burnett, Teixeira), but I don’t recall a lot of other big contracts being handed out. It was virtually assured that Dunn wasn’t going to get more than the $13 million that he’d made in 2008. Arbitration rules require that the Diamondbacks would have had to offer him a minimum of $10.4 million (80% of the $13 million) for the 2009 season (more than he made on the FA market).
The same (the Nats would be required to offer him a minimum of $9.6 million, though the figure they’d offer would obviously be higher) factors don’t really apply here. He’s getting a raise over the $12 million he’s making this year, for sure. Whether it’s $15 million or not remains to be seen.
ok look people stop saying dunn for beckham. there is no way kenny trades Beckham for a rental…and no way for just. NOW if it were beckham for dunn and we got a 72 hr window to get an extension and dunn agrees to a deal then maybe…but thats a big MAYBE..it all depends on if lilibridge can play 2nd and keep hitting very well and if vicedio can play at the worst mediocre 3rd then do the deal….other wise there are only two players i would trade beckham(the future face of the franchise) for prince(only if he agrees to an extension) or adrian gonzoles and again only if he agrees to an extension…otherwise i doubt they trade for a bat i would rather see lilibridge play 2nd full time beckham move back to 3rd and vicedio full time DH. OZZIE needs to shut the F up about “rotating dh” mainly because this “rotating dh” is mark kotsay and only mark kotsay….trade for a pitcher ie pswalt or haren…hudson+flowers+2 more minor leaguers could get the deal done if jeery reinsdorf take all of the money left on eithers contracts…the only reason you can move hudson for either haren or oswalt is because if we got one of them then for 2010-2011+ you would have peavy-haren/oswalt-buehrle-danks-floyd.
With Peavy out I don’t see any way Kenny can consider dealing Hudson. It’s not that I’d worry so much about him as the #5 but rather that Freddy is now the #4. While Dunn and then 2 draft picks are certainly valuable to the present & future, dealing Hudson means you then have to go on the market for a starter. It never ends.
I’m with bluelineswinger … and color me amused at all the Sox fans who are outraged that the Nats have the gall to actually demand, you know, *value* for one of their best everyday players.
Not everyone here in DC loves the owners – and for some the jury’s still out on Rizzo – but they’re still light years better than when the Selig-MLB kleptocracy (and Omar “Fire Sale” Minaya – Jason Bay for Lou Collier? Really?) decimated the roster at every level of the organization.
The Nats may still stink – but we’ll stink on our own terms for a change, thank you.
If you had dropped Dunn in Philly and Howard in Cincinnati, Dunn would be the far more regarded player right now. Its easy to be a great RBI guy when you have three all stars hitting in front of you, especially when two of them are MVP caliber players themselves.
Dunn’s early career was usually spent hitting behind the hitter formerly known as Ken Griffey Jr with such mashers as David Ross and Edwin Encarncion hitting behind him. There were plenty of times when Dunn was the only major league quality hitter in the lineup as well because of the injury rate of his Reds teams.
Washington actually uses Dunn correctly, in a similar fashion that Philly uses Howard. Put a good hitter in front of him and a good hitter behind him. More base runners make pitchers less likely to nibble to get Dunn out, since two runners on for Willingham isn’t as ideal as one slow runner on first with a far easier out coming to the plate.
Dunn is a very underrated player and I think Rizzo is right in his demands, but I also think the source is right as well. Rizzo isn’t trading someone that is Howard, he’s trading someone that is better.
Dunn will provide similar production at half the cost
I repeat: in 2010, Ryan Howard is hitting in an underachieving lineup that cannot score runs. Chase Utley is now injured and wasn’t hitting much this year when he was healthy. Jayson Werth hasn’t hit anything since May. Raul Ibanez hasn’t hit anything all season. Rollins has been injured most of the year. Victorino is hitting a lusty .252. AND YET RYAN HOWARD IS STILL LEADING THE LEAGUE IN RBI. Seems like pretty good evidence that he’s not just knocking in runs by accident…
NL RBI Leaders:
Howard 74 RBIs- 107 ABs with RISP
Hart 70- 87
Pujols 67- 86
Wright 67- 95
Loney 64- 107
Young 62- 82
C. Gonzalez 61- 80
A Gonzalez 60- 68
Too bad percentages don’t translate to actual production…
Lol, what? How do you expect a player to record an RBI if there isn’t a runner to bat in?
Big deal, Howard has RBI’s. He also has Ruiz’s .395, Utley’s .383, Werth’s .371 & Polanco’s .348 OBPs in front of him a lot of the time. He also has 21 jacks.
Stats that relate on other players doing their job = pretty irrelevant. Howards having a nice year, but put Dunn there and you will see better results, including even more of your precious RBIs.
Ruiz and Werth bat BEHIND Ryan Howard. I guess you’d know that if you’d watched at least two or three Phillies games before you evaluate Ryan Howard. Utley is hurt. Polanco’s .348 is roughly league average.
Agree with most of the comments except those Sox fans. Beckham will never project to a 4 hole hitter. He could potentially be in the 2 hole, or in the 6th or 7th hole for the remainder of his career. Certainly not the 4 hole. That is what you get when you trade for Dunn. How many players in the major leagues are available who are 30 years old and hit cleanup??? He is a difference maker, in the middle of your order, and a left handed power bat.
And the comparisons to Ryan Howard are valid, as are the comments about his spot in Philly. The guy hit .251 and drove in 146 runs in 2008 because of rollins, utley, and victorino.
On a genuine level people seemed shocked that the nationals are asking for an arm and a leg for Dunn. Well I ask you, would you expect an arm and a leg for a #1 or #2 starting pitcher? Well what about a #3 or #4 hole hitter who plays 150+ games every year. Isn’t a 3 or 4 hitter as valuable as a 1 or 2 starter? Pay up white sox…
Rollins, Victorino, and Utley didn’t make Howard hit .320 in 2008 wRISP. They also didn’t make him hit 48 home runs.
No they didn’t make him hit 48 homeruns. But he did have 351 at bats with runners on where Dunn only had 283.
I have no problem with Dunn. I think he’s a great hitter, and my point wasn’t to compare him with Ryan Howard. I just don’t understand why everyone’s so quick to condemn Howard as overrated without actually examining statistics such as Average wRISP that determine how effective someone is at driving in runs. Or watching actually watching him play reasonably often, which would probably be the best way to evaluate him.
I am not condemning him, but merely pointing out that Average with RISP (and effectively RBI’s) is not a valued statistic. There is no such thing as ‘clutch’ hitting or hitting better with RISP. Given enough data and opportunities, his career batting average will likely mirror his batting average with RISP, which it does, (.282 vs. .279). He is a benefactor of ample opportunities.
Why is there no such thing as clutch hitting? Because Bill James couldn’t come up with a way to measure it? Baseball is a much more complicated game than statistically-obsessed people give it credit for. Even if you’re right, the important thing is that the guy ALWAYS finds a way to drive in runs, regardless of whether he’s hitting .251 or .316. I don’t care if one year he does it by hitting with men on base and the next year he does it some other way. Percentages are pretty, but people forget that they don’t actually translate to more runs or reflect what a player actually did on the field. They just measure trends and create objective ways to rate players theoretically if everything was equal. But everything’s not equal. Ryan Howard plays every single game for the Phillies at first base. Should that mean his 140 RBI mean less? Of course not. The ability to play every single day without getting injured and produce consistently is much more valuable in baseball than any sort of metric.
Additionally, people forget that the Nationals are giving up their 4 hole hitter!? They have nobody to slide into that spot effectively. That is asking alot of faith from the organization and from the fan base to make such a trade. I actually think the Nationals would be giving the most up in that situation.
I would hate to see the Nats trade Dunn. If they actually do have a chance to be good within the next few years, then as you said Dunn is really important in the middle of that lineup between Zimmerman and Willingham. And what’s more, he doesn’t even seem to want to be traded. Seems like a dream come true for a last place team.
Are you saying the White Sox would have to give up Beckham + something else?!?! You couldnt be more off. Either you are way over-valuing Dunn, or you dont have a very good handle of the contractual situations. A package of Brent Morel + a lower level prospect should be enough to get it done, but Zimmermann throws a wrench into that idea.
That’s what we’re saying. Dunn is good for 35+ HRs year in/year out with slightly below-average defense at 1B. For that, absent a trade or an extension, the Nats and Dunn are looking at either 1) finishing this year’s $10 million and a likely arb award of $15-16M next year or 2) Dunn declining arb and the Nats getting two 1st rounders from the team who signs him. Factor in the huge PR the team would take for trading Dunn and the return has to be two young ML-ready studs or top-shelf prospects to cushion the blow – which is exactly what Rizzo is seeking.
We’re just not going to trade our beat up old $20 bill for two crisp new singles, sorry.
Getting “two young ML-ready studs” isnt going to happen for 2 months of a player who is worth approx. 2 WAR the rest of the year, and is being paid at FMR of compensation. Considering draft pick compensation if he doesnt accept arbitration, the Nats are looking at a B level prospect + a lower level prospect.
2 months? So the Sox wouldn’t offer him arbitration?
you completely missed part of the point here.
it’s not “two young ML-ready studs” for 2 months rental
it’s “two young ML-ready studs” for 2 months rental *AND* two picks (i.e., type A FA).
you (and many white sox fans) are dismissing the type A compensation like it doesn’t exist.
Its obvious that you dont get it. There is no guarantee that Dunn is a type A in the AL. Even if he is, currently he is being paid at a FMV of what a 2ish WAR player would earn for the rest of the year. A guy like that is not going to command “two young ML-ready studs”. A guy like that is going to bring in MAYBE two “B” level prospects, but most likely a “B” and a lower level type.
You’re the first person I’ve seen say there’s a possibility Dunn isn’t a type A, I’d love to see your logic behind that. Until you show your work, you can’t ignore the compensation.
And two B level prospects or a B and a lower level prospects by themselves don’t equate to just the type A compensation, let alone Dunn.
In the latest Elias update Ive seen, Dunn’s score is 78.6, which renders him a type A free agent in the NL. However, that score would be just on the cusp, and make him a type B free agent in the AL.
And yes, two B level prospect is more than enough for type A compensation. Netting draft picks doesnt guarantee that a team will draft elite prospects, as most draft prospects fizzle out. Even if he were to be a type A free agent it wouldnt even guarantee the team receiving compensation a first round pick, just look at what happened to the Brewers w/CC, and he was ranked much higher than Dunn will be.
we’ll have to agree to disagree on that. i’d rather roll the dice on my scouting to have a 1st and a sandwich than to take two B level prospects.
You want to know WHY Dunn could drop to a Type B Free Agent?
1) For his career, Dunn’s BABIP is somewhere between .330 and .340. Right now, it is at .371. So if (more like when) Dunn regresses to his normal BABIP, his Batting Average is going to drop to the .250 to .260 range he normally finishes at. Also, to get his BA up to its current level, Dunn is swinging at more pitches and walking less, that is why his OBP is lower than it normally is and his Slugging Percentage is higher. Again, once he regresses, his OBP will either stay the same (if he starts drawing more Walks) or it will drop and hsi Slugging Percentage will also drop.
So, instead of a .283 BA, a .374 OBP and a .550 SLG, Dunn will have a .255 BA, a .365 OBP and a SLG of .500 (or less) which would make his OPS less than .900. Oh yeah, Dunn is on pace for a career year in Hits (over 170) and Doubles (46) yet is only on pace to score 93 Runs and have 103 RBI’s (with 39 Home Runs). Yet ANOTHER indictment of him when his BA against Lefties and with RISP is low.
Oh yeah, and as far as the Howard vs. Dunn arguement, just go back and look at what happens to Dunn EVERY September (when football season starts). His offense goes into the tank.
September 2006, the Reds are in Play Off contention, KGJ gets injured and Dunn is supposed to be the “run producer”. Look what happened; a .164 BA with 2 Home Runs and 5 RBI in 85 At Bats. Meanwhile, the old man, Rich Aurilla, hit .344 with 4 Home Runs and 17 RBI that month. The Reds missed the Play Offs.
In 2008, the D backs traded three players for Dunn and paid the remainder of his salary for that year (so as to help their offense) and what happened? Dunn tanked, the D backs scored FEWER Runs per game WITH Dunn than they did before they traded for him and they missed the Play Offs. Because they didn’t want to take the chance on him winning in salary arbitration, they didn’t offer it to him and thus they got NOTHING for Dunn.
Now comparte THAT to what Ryan Howard did in September of 2008 and September of 2009 when the Phillies were chasing the Mets for the Play Offs. There IS a reason why Howard finishes in the top 10 in MVP voting every year and Dunn has only received votes in two seperate years (finishing 28th and 26th, respectively).
In short, when Dunn regresses to his mean, his production will drop and with it goes his Type A Free Agent status.
i’ll ignore all the howard stuff, since i was never talking about that to begin with.you went through a whole lot of stuff to say one thing: his OPS will regress to the mean. if it regressed to the career mean, it would be a little over 900 (career 906), not below 900. but let’s face it, he’s been over 900 most of his career and his OPS this season is only 22 pts higher than last season (927). so even if he regressed to last season’s levels, that’s only a 22 pt drop. if you look at actual numbers, he’s not been consistent in aug/sept. a couple of years he’s dropped, and a couple of years he’s been over 900. while it’s possible his performance can and will drop, the numbers aren’t consistent enough to really say he *will* drop. the fact that the Dbacks *chose* not to risk arbitration and end up with a large salary for one year is only relevant if the white sox would not want to pay him for one year if he chose not to decline it. i guess it’s possible he could accept it and stay. if that’s a terrible risk to them, then they shouldn’t make the deal.
the reality is if he stays with washington, they’ll offer him arbitration. if he takes it, great. they’d be happy to have him for 1 year. if he doesn’t, they get the two picks.
and *THAT* is why he’s worth the two picks to the NATIONALS. maybe it’s not worth it to the sox if he dropped down to type B in the AL. but from the nationals’ perspective, he’s going to be a type A and they’ll get the two picks if he stays. so whether the sox think he’s worth those picks or not, he *IS* worth those picks to the nats.
Yup I am saying that. Beckham plus a minor leaguer or Hudson. Morel is equal to the garbage put into flux capacitors. If the Nationals want low upside they are better off taking on additional risk with the first round picks next year. At least there is potential. No sense in trading for a .759 OPS in the minors at at a power position.
“Beckham plus a minor leaguer or Hudson.”
Keep dreaming champ
Beckham isnt being traded for a rental.
THE ONLY WAY THIS HAPPENS IS IF BRENT LILIBRIDGE CAN SUSTAIN HIS HOT HITTING. I’m not saying keep up his .400 average. but if he can hit around .280-.320 which he seems in all likely hood he could. And if this is true if lilibridge can keep this up then maybe we could move beckham. BUT NOT FOR ADAM DUNN….it would be for prince or Adrian Gonzoles. NOT ADAM DUNN, besides the nats have no need for gordon. They have guzman, desmond and zimmerman why would you need another middle infielder
“They have guzman, desmond and zimmerman why would you need another middle infielder ”
Zimmerman is a third baseman. Yes…. that’s where Beckham played last year, and I suppose that it could be argued that part of his struggles at the plate this season have to do with the positional switch. Beckham was a college SS, moved to third as a rookie, and then switched to 2b in 2010, which is a crucial defensive position on the diamond. You have to think that Beckham has focused a lot of his efforts on his defense, meaning he’s focused a little less on his offensive development and is a little less sharp at the plate. Clearly, he wouldn’t move to 3b if he were traded to Washington, with Zimmerman the Nats’ face of the franchise already. He’d remain at second.
Desmond has struggled a bit both in the field and at the plate, as rookies are occasionally prone to do. He’s clearly a significant part of the future for the Nats. Barring a trade to bring in a 2b, either Desmond or prospect Danny Espinosa figure to move to the other side of second by 2012.
Espinosa isn’t quite ready, though he is expected to develop into a big league starter. By all accounts, Desmond has the better arm, but Espinosa is the better all-around defender. My guess is that Desmond would remain at SS because of the arm. Either way, that’s moot. Espinosa isn’t big league ready, and any number of things (positive or negative) could happen between now and his expected big league arrival in 2011. Were the Nats to acquire Bekcham, they’d go from a “maybe in 2012” to a “big league ready bat right now” at 2b. Even if Espinosa were to continue to develop as expected, either he or Desmond could strengthen their bench significantly as the utility infielder.
Guzman is perhaps (thankfully!) the last remaining albatross of the Bowden years. He’s devoid of power, devoid of patience, and doesn’t run as well as he used to. Furthermore, he’s a converted SS who has learned on the fly defensively at second base. He’s not particularly strong there with the glove right now, and it’s doubtful that he ever will be. Again, moot point. Guzman is a free agent after the 2010 season, and Rizzo probably needs his head examined if he attempts to retain him.
Yes…. there’s a fairly significant need for a second baseman in Washington, which is probably why the name Gordon Beckham has been floated around. Quentin’s name has probably been floated around because there’s certainly a need for some outfield help as well… particularly considering that one of the Nats’ outfielders (most likely Josh Willingham or Mike Morse) would fill in the spot vacated by Dunn at first. Even with them, the play of Nyjer Morgan this season has been abysmal, and while they seem to have found a pretty nice RF option (who is a natural CF) in Roger Bernadina, they could improve their day to day lineup by having Morgan waste fewer AB.
I’ll stand by my earlier comment that I’d find it incredibly difficult to walk away from a package that involved both Hudson and Viciedo, and don’t think that Rizzo will end up getting Beckham in a deal for Dunn.
there is still no way they trade gordon for a rental of Dunn. I can pretty much bet that hudson is off limits due to the lack of starting pitching in the system. Yes i would trade a number of prospects for dunn, well not any number rizzo needs to come off his high horse and realize that he is trading away a rental and not someone under contract. I doubt there is a straight up dunn for gordon deal unlees its like gordon and a few prospects for dunn for a few fringe prospects
Never said that Williams would trade Beckham for Dunn. He’d be foolish to. I simply explained why Beckham’s name keeps coming up in Rizzo’s supposed demands. The longer it goes on, the more I’m convinced it’s just posturing. Williams is the one who apparently floated that he’d be willing to move Hudson, and Rizzo would be foolish to not require him as the primary piece back. If Williams wouldn’t move Hudson, I’d imagine that they’d be at an impasse.
The Nats aren’t going anywhere this year, and they’re probably not going anywhere next year. Among the pieces currently in their system, the Nationals projected 2012 rotation would probably have to be: Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Ross Detwiler….. and, well, that’s really where it kind of stops (Detwiler’s a bit of a ? in his own right, and Zimmermann is rehabbing from TJ Surgery). Add Hudson to that list and there’s a good shot the White Sox could get Adam Dunn’s services for the rest of the season.
Lannan could get his issues straightened out down in the minors, but he’s far from a stud even at his best. Olsen, Wang, and Marquis all have contracts (or arbtiration years) that will expire after the 2011 season (thankfully on Marquis’ part!). Stammen, Martin, Martis, and Atilano haven’t exactly shown much promise as they’ve been forced into the rotation. Arguably their best SP prospect at this point in time based on actual production (Brad Meyers) is injured and at least a year or two away…. and he projects more as a #5/swing man type.
They’re far from loaded elsewhere, but they figure to have the roster depth to at least use Mike Morse or Josh Willingham (probably calling up Justin Maxwell for one last shot) to at least platoon into the LF spot temporarily. Chris Marrero doesn’t look like he’s ever going to be what everyone thought he would be, but he shows enough promise to at least compete for the 1b job in the next couple of years.
That, as well as Dunn’s impending free agency, is why Dunn can be on the market. It would be foolish to call him replaceable, but the assets he could bring in return to the Nationals in areas of greater need make him expendable. Who do the White Sox have to fill those areas of greater need? Morel (ummm… Ryan Zimmerman?)? Flowers (dropping steadily down prospect lists with a really rough year, and figures to move off the catching position)?
As someone in the other thread keeps saying (perhaps a bit more angrily?), if Rizzo can’t fill those areas of greater need by trading him, then what’s the point of trading him? He’s a popular player who is their second best hitter. He has publicly stated that he’d like to stay in Washington beyond this season. If they were to re-sign him, he’d likely still be contributing in 2012 and 2013 when the Nats figure to be more competitive. Dealing him will drop attendance figures and hurt the bottom line financially.
I’ll repeat. Rizzo… will… not… get… Beckham. He’s negotiating to get the best deal possible, though.
Brent Morel? The career .799 OPS in the minor leagues is worth Adam Dunn? Yeah…..keep drinking that kool aid.
I fear the Nationals over paying for a right fielder next year. Read Jayson Werth. Long-term, Hudson would be a good pick up for the Nationals. Pitching is more important for long-term success in the NL, Zimmermann, Hudson, Strasburg, combined with Detwiler and any free agent signings would be a solid group going forward.
Agreed with everything here. If the Nats trade Dunn for pitching, sign Werth and sign a 1B from Konerko/Lee/Berkman/Laroche/Pena pile, they will be a legit force in the NL next year.
None of us are professionals (unless one of you is actually Mike Rizzo or Kenny Williams – in which case get off the damn computer and pick up the phone) but this discussion confirms my suspicion that while the Sox and Nats would be inclined to do a deal, there isn’t currently a mutually agreeable price.
The next 10 days should be interesting, though.
I hope and pray that Jerry stops Kenny from making ANY deal at the deadline this year. Yes, I do enjoy Kenny “the gambler,” but this year’s team is different — they are doing well because of some unique team chemistry (much like in the 05 championship season) not because of gawdy stats from any one player (though Rios and Paulie look sharp). Disrupting that chemistry — including letting Teahan anywhere near the field — is my greatest fear. Frankly, Dunn just isn’t needed to win that division, and certainly not at the current rate.
Nationals fans, you should continue to value players like Dunn, and I believe your team has a very bright future if the right pieces fall into place. But I’m sorry, Dunn is not as valuable to us and he is (apparently) to you. That is the interesting thing about market economics: the buyer has to see the value you are claiming; if he/she doesn’t, then that value doesn’t exist in the market — maybe in your home, but not in the market place.
Kenny, stay the course, think about Laroche perhaps, but do NOT trade for Dunn or Fielder. I our chances against the Tigers and Twins with what we have right now.
I’m down with LaRoche. He won’t completely gut the farm and would be a decent LH bat. For whatever reason he is always really good the 2nd half of seasons. In his career he is a .300 hitter with a .906 OPS in the 2nd half of seasons.
For those who think Dunn is worth Beckham and more…dream on. I know he’d be type A, but what will those picks be? The market for Dunn next year will not be that great…I can only see 5-6 teams with the need of Dunn at 1B not including the Nats:
Definite interest: San Fran, Orioles, Cubs, White Sox
Maybe: Texas (Davis in place…iffy), Colorado (Helton signed but declining), KC (Butler in but he’s a DH), Atlanta (if Glaus doesn’t resign)
All you have to do is look at the FA 1B for 2011: Lee, Konerko, Dunn, Berkman, Glaus, Pena, LaRoche, Cantu and a few others to know that the market for 1B will be over saturated.
If Dunn goes to the Cubs, Orioles or KC those picks will be over #30 and in the 60’s. Point is two months of an Adam Dunn and two iffy draft picks is not worth the Sox giving up cost control and Gordon Beckham’s potential.
KC has Butler who is more than serviceable at 1st and that Hawaiian dude who will be a DH. They won’t go for Dunn imo.
I was unaware Adam Dunn maintained a 1.400 OPS in the NCLS.
Great article on Fangraphs about how, except for defense, Ryan Howard almost exactly = Adam Dunn. The Phillies gave their Adam Dunn 5yrs/$125mil through his age 37 season. LOL.