8:02pm: The Blue Jays are asking the Mets for a top prospect in exchange for Downs according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (via Twitter). The Twins have assigned a scout to watch the Blue Jays' relievers, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.
7:48am: Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos has the best reliever available in Scott Downs, and he knows it. Check out these asking prices for two months of Downs' services, courtesy of George A. King III of the New York Post: Joba Chamberlain or Jesus Montero from the Yankees, Casey Kelly or Jose Iglesias from the Red Sox (Montero link from SI's Jon Heyman via Twitter). With almost 80 hours remaining until the trade deadline, it doesn't hurt to ask.
Other teams are also trying to buy low on Chamberlain, who sports a 5.95 ERA, 10.0 K/9, and 3.6 BB/9 in 42.3 relief innings this year. The Diamondbacks also tried to get Chamberlain as part of a Dan Haren deal. Joba is under team control through 2013 and arbitration-eligible for the first time after this season.
Regarding the Yankees' search for a bench bat, King says they've spoken to the Orioles about Ty Wigginton. The O's are dangling Miguel Tejada, who's generated only lukewarm interest from the Yanks. Tejada is said to be the Phillies' primary infield target. As for a Yankees-Orioles deal, SI's Jon Heyman tweeted two days ago that O's owner Peter Angelos doesn't want to trade with his division rival.
Kelly or Iglesias?
Id rather just put Bill Hall in the BP than trade one of those two for a relief pitcher.
NO kidding and Joba from the Yanks??? Downs is having a good year but c’mon talk about waisting other team’s time!
Hey…don’t through this “waisting other team’s time” at us when they are the ones who came to the Jays about their interest in Downs…the Jays didn’t come to them…
Yeah, it’s an over-reach but don’t start acting like Joba’s the second coming. He’s not worth as much as you think.
Joba is an unkown on any other team. He has a long way to go to become a reliable MLB pitcher.
He was the second coming before the Yankees tried to make him into a SP and screwed him up completely … If I were the Yankees, I’d trade him…
Dont forget, the Jays packaged up 2 prospects with a veteran for Escobar. I imagine if they could convince the Bosox to give up Kelly, it would include veterans for the stretch drive AND a prospect going to Boston. And Downs will be worth a minimum of 2 draft picks (likely a supplemental pick and a second round pick; likely wont be signed by a top 15 team for fear of giving up a 1st round pick). Bosox love their high draft picks.
I thought I was crazy about offering Eduardo Nunez. . . . .Joba isn’t even on the table for a reliever not named Joakim Soria as far as I’m concerned.
Scott Downsyndrome is nothing special. “Let me trade my average middle reliever for your top ace pitching prospect!” Sounds like that fantasy baseball owner that just doesn’t get it…
Average middle reliever or best LH reliever for the past 4 years in the midst of a stellar season?
He is not the best, dont be delusional..he is the best one AVAILABLE FOR TRADE..meaning if you want a good bullpen arm, he is the best AVAILABLE…Kelly and Iglesias are not available for a bullpen arm… Iglesias is a defensive wizard with really soft hands and only has to develop american culture like not celebrating when he hits a home run…and Kelly has so much promise its unreal….Downs will not get it done for any of those guys…get real
AA doesn’t need to trade Downs….However, these teams need a quality 8th inning reliever. So, if they don’t make it worth AA’s while, why should he trade Downs. If they want Downs….then they have to make AA want to trade Downs.
Actually considering his age and what AA is trying to do, he does. He’s trying to rebuild. You don’t do that with 35 year old RP. As for asking for Kelley or Iglesias, that’s good for him to see if the teams are that desparate, but I have faith in Theo that he won’t give up a blue chip prospect for an aging BP arm who’s having a nice year. And Joba from the Yanks? Come on. Joba isn’t having the best year, but he’s so young and the potential is there.
The point that you’re missing is that if the Jays keep Downs, they still get two draft picks assuming that they offer him arb and he declines. So, no, AA doesn’t have to trade Downs at all.
enjoy your draft pick compensation
enjoy your draft pick compensation…all i have to say
yeah…eric gagne was great and in the middle of a stellar season when we got him too. and downs has a 3.80 career era // 1.37 career whip? thrilling.
I hear career numbers are all that matters. Seriously. Look at his stats. Notice a pattern? His ERA is high every year he was used as a starter. Every year he’s been used properly as a reliever (which he’s obviously being traded as) he’s been stellar.
Average Middle Reliever? Who are you kidding? You should watch some baseball games before voicing your opinion — rotohead.
Always great when someone who doesn’t watch baseball gives their two cents.
Downs is a good reliever; but if the sox give up either of those players i will no longer be watching their games every night.
As a Sox fan i would rather them save the prospects and go with the bullpen they have. I know how unreliable the pen has been for the Sox thus far, but two months of Scott Downs is not worth the SS of the future or the best pitching prospect in your system.
I would rather finish third and not go to the playoffs then give up that much talent for Downs.
Leo Nunez? maybe, Scott Downs for 2 months? No way in hell
I agree with your assessment….but…at the same time…if I am AA….I am not interested in trading Downs if I am just going to get marginal players. After all, it isn’t AA’s job to help the Sox make the playoffs or help the Yanks win the series….unless…they make it worth his while.
I couldn’t agree more, it’s not in the Blue Jays’ best interest to give Downs away for 80 cents on the dollar. But if that’s the asking price (and i think we all know that’s very far fetched) I would kindly wish them luck in 4th place with no shot now or in the future.
I would be shocked if the Jays actually get a prospect with that level of talent for Downs. Can’t blame them for starting the conversations way over their heads in value, but it’s just not feasible. Maybe if the cubs were in contention they would give up a player like that for a rental like Downs; but a well run org like the Yankees or Sox will not do it in a million years.
Don’t forget that its not just 2 months Downs; its also 2 picks you get since he’s type A.
I’m well aware of the rules of signing a type A free agent.
I also don’t believe that a team that has an unprotected pick will be willing to give that pick up to sign a middle reliever. He’s a good player, but this is similar to the Juan Cruz situation: Cruz was a type A and was offered arbitration, nobody wanted to give up a pick so nobody signed him and the team didn’t get any picks.
I agree that Downs is better than Cruz, but when he was a type A nobody wanted to sign him b/c they didn’t want to give the kind of money he was looking for PLUS a pick for a middle reliever.
So you’re taking a gamble here; you give away a good player for a middle reliever. You might get a top pick if someone with an unprotected pick signs him; but you may also get stuck with overpaying him for next year if he accepts it. He may also be signed by a team with a protected pick, and he may also be signed by a team that signs a higher ranked type A as well as Downs.
There are alot more variables than just “2 picks since he’s a type A.”
Actually, the Royals signed Cruz and the Dbacks DID get picks, but Cruz is a horrible comp. Downs has a much better track record than Juan Cruz and the added bonus of being a lefty who can get righties out.
And I don’t get the constant posting on this board that it’s somehow a bad thing if Downs decides to accept arbitration. What wrong with a stellar late inning lefty on a one year deal? Since he’s not a closer or coming off a large deal he won’t get a ton of money (like the $8M for Soriano last year).
And even if one of the picks is a comp pick and the other is a 2nd rounder (in what is projected to be a VERY good draft), it’s still better than taking some crappy C prospect package full of guys that might be marginal contributors at the big league level.
he is making 4 million this yr and as a veteran with his numbers he will easily net 6 at least.
there’s a lot wrong with that in my opinoin.
I definitely can’t argue with your logic, but as you said Cruz was notably different.
2 solid RHP years in NL West vs 4 solid LHP years in AL East. (And 3 of Downs 4 year were better than either of Cruz’s)
Cruz had given up 12 HR in those 2 years/110 IP, and Downs 12 HR in those 4 years 220 IP
I guess time will tell what he’s going to yield, but to paraphrase, ‘Winning now costs prospects; how many games do you want to win?”
dont forget he would have to decline arb, which is a gamble…which they won with Billy Wagner and lightning doesnt strike twice
Dude, he is a Type A Free Agent at the end of the season OR the Red Sox would resign him.
Dude, i don’t care what he is; he’s a middle reliever and Casey Kelly is the best pitching prospect in the org and Iglesias is (hopefully) the SS of the future.
and see my answer to adameb about the type A bs… it doesn’t necessarily mean what you think it means.. especially when you’re talking middle relievers (who will be looking for 3 year deals in the 15 to 18 million range.)
Dude, there is no “thinking”. It is what it is. He will be a Type A Free Agent if he declines Arbitration, and as such, the Blue Jays will be compensated with a supplemental first round pick, AND, a first, second, third or fourth round pick from the signing team. There is not a winning team in baseball that wouldn’t be willing to sacrifice a second, third or forth round pick for such a reliable pitcher.
First round? I agree, i dont think any teams will want to do that.
Did you just hear what you said?
“There is not a winning team in baseball that wouldn’t be willing to sacrifice a second, third or forth round pick for such a reliable pitcher.
First round? I agree, i dont think any teams will want to do that”.
Any team that is a “winning team” probably would have to give up a 1st rnd pick to sign Downs unless they sign an additional FA that year as well ranked higher.
Exactly.
Burnett cost a 3rd Round pick, as i recall.
Yes b/c the Yankees spent a half billion dollars that off season and decided to sign 3 of the top type A’s.
another ridiculous, unreliable and less likely than a blue moon example
Arent you guys signing Cliff Lee this winter?
so you would be ok with having Downs for 2 months a pick in the 30’s range of next year’s draft and a pick in the 40’s or 50’s of the same draft for Casey kelly or Iglesias???
Thank god you’re not running the team..
and he’s 34 years old so a team that is wanting to sign him will have to give up the pick and sign an aging middle reliever to a contract that would be quite a risk in my opinion. I will agree that he is a good reliable pitcher; but he’s 34, will be looking for 3 guaranteed years on the open market and if he doesn’t get that he may accept arbitration. If that were to happen he could end up making 6 to 7 million next year.
So in the Red Sox case; if he accepted arb they would be paying Papelbon, Downs, Okajima and Ramirez (all assuming reasonable arbitration raises) 25 million or close to it.
For any team, small or large market; that is insanity
(1) What if he is the difference in making the playoffs and winning a WS?
(2) Would you trade Kelly for Downs and Bucholz and another pick? Dont forget how well the Bosox draft. Those picks have significant value to a team like Boston.
(3) He wouldnt make more than $5.5mm in arb, and will NOT accept arb, as he will land a multi-year deal. This is his last contract.
so you picked one of the better supplemental picks in the last few years by any team. The sox do draft well; but they are not going to hit the lottery with a pick in the 30’s every time. therefore it is impossible and ridiculous to ask me if i would trade Kelly for Downs and Bucholz plus another pick.
It’s just as accurate to ask me if i would trade Kelly for two months of Downs and 2 guys nobody will ever know the names of bc there are tons of those examples as well.
Ok, same trade but with Ranaudo (or Brentz) and Workman along with Downs?
I agree. But I don’t think Theo is that dumb. He knows what he can get for those prospects. Fielder or AGon in the offseason if he wanted. Or we can just keep them and hope they pan out.
Lol Pete Angelos not wanting to trade within the division. YOUR TEAM BLOWS! Rebuild anyway you can!
I was thinking the same thing. “Division rival” HA!!! Wigginton and Tejada will be LONG gone from either team by time (if ever) the Orioles are “division rivals” of the Yankees again.
Yeah, its not like Wigginton and/or Tejada will be superstars for the Yankees who will haunt the O’s for years to come in divisional games. Both would be backups and Tejada is gone by the end of the year anyways.
I could maybe understand not wanting to send Tejada there because it would be like getting a team legend like Glavine back after a long time away and then a few months later trading him to the Phils. But Ty? I cant see the emotional connection there.
Heyman is a moron. His “source” is probably Rosenthal who hates Angelos with a passion going back to his days with the Baltimore Sun as a beat writer. Angelos is one of the smartest people on the planet. For starters, it is unlikely that he would think that way; if he can upgrade the team by making a deal with the Yankees, he would do so. Wigginton is a free agent at the end of the season whom the Yanks would be unlikely to resign, so no harm done since this season is a wash. Secondly, even in the unlikely event that Angelos did think this way, he would NEVER be stupid enough to say so publicly to anyone. So for Heyman to report it means either he made it up, he got the information from someone who made it up, or once again a sportswriter for a major national entity is passing off his opinion as fact.
Heyman is a moron. His “source” is probably Rosenthal who hates Angelos with a passion going back to his days with the Baltimore Sun as a beat writer. Angelos is one of the smartest people on the planet. For starters, it is unlikely that he would think that way; if he can upgrade the team by making a deal with the Yankees, he would do so. Wigginton is a free agent at the end of the season whom the Yanks would be unlikely to resign, so no harm done since this season is a wash. Secondly, even in the unlikely event that Angelos did think this way, he would NEVER be stupid enough to say so publicly to anyone. So for Heyman to report it means either he made it up, he got the information from someone who made it up, or once again a sportswriter for a major national entity is passing off his opinion as fact.
well then, AA, enjoy your draft picks next year…
And this is the point of all this. He’s HAPPY to take the draft picks, so why shouldn’t he ask for elite prospects and hope somebody gets desperate?
yup, and he can hope that finally he doesn’t get screwed out of a first round compensation pick. Makes sense, they’re at the point where they really should be building through the draft.
Can’t blame AA for asking, but he must be delusional if he thinks 2 months of Downs is worth any of the mentioned guys.
This guy is absolutely crazy.
Crazy like a Fox….why do a deal when you are only offered guys you don’t want
No, not really. AA would be perfectly happy to take the high draft picks or even re-up Downs for a couple more years. Remember, AA has no reason to sell, so if you want him, you better be willing to pay the price.
“Remember, AA has no reason to sell….”
That’s not really true, he has plenty of reasons to sell, just not any reason to sell for a marginal return. The way I see it is that any prospect(s) obtained from trading Downs will only be a couple years away from the big leagues (estimation on my part), while if he holds on to Downs and collects the picks it’s more likely that those prospects don’t see the big leagues until 2014 at the earliest. Now, of course AA could find a true gem in the draft and said gem could be up within a couple of years, but the odds are not in favor of that outcome. I’m not advocating that Downs should be traded for the sake of trading him, just that AA does in fact have reasons to sell.
Both the Sox and Yankees are way too smart for that and both clubs can use internal options to resolve some of their bullpen issues. The Yankees can transition Robertson into the 8th (already started) and call up Nova, Albaladejo and possibly Melancon to take over for the corpses of Moseley, Chan Ho and Guadin. The Red Sox can switch Doubront, or Bowden into relievers to finish the season with the big league club. No need to give up top flight prospects.
Frankly, if the Sox and the Yankees had internal options that they were happy with, they wouldn’t be shopping around.
Thats not true at all, its the GMs job to pursue trades if he thinks they can help the club AND the cost is reasonable. The Yankees dont need Downs, it would be great to have him but its not like they are lost with out the guy. They won the World Series with Robertson, Joba and Hughes setting up for Mariano. They could employ that exact same formula and be fine.
and yet….previous posts have them listed as the favourite to get Downs…
Great so if we are going by previous reports wouldnt Lee and Haren be on the team? Considering those same previous reports had Lee to to the Yankees as a done deal and then the Yankees being the favorites for Haren.
If the Yankees trade for Downs and give up Joba i’ll gladly come back to the thread and say you are right but I doubt that happens
Don’t be silly…I am more interested in reading your opinion and perspective than reading you think I am right..this is one of the best discussion boards you will find compared to any topic board (business…sports…politics…etc)….great posters.
That being said….my understanding of the Lee situation was Yanks and Mariners had a verbal agreement…and the Mariners turned around and used the deal to get Smoak from the Rangers….it looks like the Yanks got shafted by some dishonesty from Mariners
I presented those two examples to show that this off season reports have been shaky at best. Even though they have been listed as favorites that means absolutely nothing.
I’m really not trying to make the case that Downs isnt a good player but he’s just not worth the names listed above. I asked another poster here and i think its a valid comparison would you trade JP Arencibia for 2 months of Billy Wagner?
Sorry for the delay response….this thread is nuts…it just crashed my IE.
The question has to be asked within the context of the situation….It is like asking will you trade a Jeff Kent at the start of his major league career for a David Cone at the “tail” end of his career.
Without context, the answer is no….but…the Jays did it and won a World Series….they were in a position to win the Series and were strong at the position…so…it can be a yes.
As for Arencibia for Wagner, I would consider it if my team was a strong contender…..If this was the case I would probably counter with Arencibia for Wagner and your second or third best prospect (or whatever prospect is a notch below Arencibia).
Sorry i missed this David Cone was not at the “tail” end of his career when the Jays traded for him, he was 29 and in the middle of a 2.88 season as a starter. He won the CY Young 2 years later. If Cone was at the “tail” end of his career at 29 then what is Downs at since hes 34 now? He gave the Jays 53 innings of 2.55 era ball not counting the playoffs. How many innings will Downs pitch for the team who trades for him 30-35 and theres no guarantee that all of those innings will be high leverage important innings
Enjoy those internal options then.
Id much rather enjoy the internal options than trade Joba or Kelly for 2 months of a 34 year old reliever. Its not a dig at Downs it just doesnt make sense.
Would you trade JP Arencibia for 2 months of Billy Wagner?
The Jays pretty much did that back in 1992 when they acquired David Cone for a very young Jeff Kent.
David Cone was a 29 year elite starter who came in and solidified the rotation. He threw 53 innings of 2.55 era ball. When they traded for him he was in the middle of a 2.88 season as a starter. And Kent was a 24 year old 2b with decent numbers in the minors and a decent mediocre season. I dont think the situations are that similar
There are some similarities…..perhaps…it was better to indicate Cone was a rental for the Jays….never the less….it does illustrate my point and the thinking with the Jays…
AA is overstocking on premium prospects to be prepared when he needs to get the final piece…at SS…has Escobar….Hechavaria (correction on spelling welcomed)…and Thon…
You can do these type of deals when you are overloaded in prospects and close to the top.
EXACTLY!
But of course, those teams dont know more than CosaOne and Ronny9 at MLBTR!
No need to be a jerk, this is what the purpose of comments section of this website is for, people post their opinions here. You dont agree that fine, just say why. And this statement, “But of course, those teams dont know more than CosaOne and Ronny9 at MLBTR!”, is only true if either the Red Sox or the Yankees end up trading Joba, Kelly or Iglesias. If not then then maybe they thought the exact same thing we did, namely that Downs is a good player but not worth the price tag.
“is only true if either the Red Sox or the Yankees end up trading Joba, Kelly or Iglesias. ”
How many times you watched Kelly or Iglesias play?
Ive seen Kelly pitch twice in person and video of him on other occasions, Ive never seen Iglesias. Whats your point though? Ive read a lot about them from people that are actually paid to evaluate baseball players. Even if I had seen both guys 15 times what does that matter, its not like these are unknown guys or scrub minor leaguers that Im saying shouldnt be moved. These a reason evaluators rank these guys highly.
How many times have you seen them play? If never then why do you want them? Probably for the same reason that people are arguing against trading them because they are ranked highly and scouts see high upside at a low cost.
Believe me i hate the Red Sox and I hope they trade Kelly I just dont think its going to happen.
Yeah, CosaOne, those are all reliable options in the 8th inning of Game 5 of the WS.
Comedy..you are reading too many “prospects” reports, and not watching real MLB baseball.
Its not comedy at all and I watch plenty of baseball so you dont need to worry about that. As for 8th inning of game 5 in the World Series I’d be fine with Hughes pitching that inning but most likely if its a make of break game Mariano will be pitching. Remember him…hes still on the team. Go back and read what i wrote about those guys, I said they could be called up to replace Chan ho, Guadin and Moseley NONE of those guys would be pitching in the 8th inning of any world series game
Your team is looking at reliable relief pitchers, because they dont want any of the guys you mentioned pitching in important situations. This discussion has nothing to do with the players you mention, but rather, the Yankees understanding that if they can bring in a reliable late inning reliever — they may be unbeatable. Again.
Your team is interested in Scott Downs, and you should be thankful if you get him.
“Your team is interested in Scott Downs, and you should be thankful if you get him.”
Not if the price is our best prospect or a much younger/cheaper and more controllable pitcher with more upside.
Reach for the stars, grab hold of the moon Alex.
Alternatively, reach for the stars, never get near them and miss the moon entirely in the process. A much more likely scenario.
I think something will get done. If those are the actual names Toronto is asking for, that’s the ceiling, and they’re probably hoping the Yanks and Red Sox will panic and, to prevent their rival from getting Downs, will cave in. Wait until the final day, if Toronto sees it’s not working, they’ll lower their price.
I can see the Jays getting someone like Reddick or Kalish from the Sox, and someone like Laird, Nunez, or Noesi from the Yanks. Or, they can just offer arbitration, hope Downs rejects it, and pick up the two comp picks next year.
Anthopolous’ main objective now that his team his out of contention, should be to shed payroll and to acquire as many assets as he can for the future. Downs is a good middle reliever but he’s a FA after the season and while he will most likely have Type A FA I’m sure of two things: A) 99% of all teams will NOT want to give up draft pick compensation to sign a 34 going on 35 yo relief pitcher. B) The Jays would be making a mistake offering him arbitration inorder to be in a position to get compensation.
That being the case it makes 100% common sense for them to trade Downs. Take the best offer you can get from teams and move on it. Asking for guys like Joba, Kelly and Iglesias does nothing to advance the objective of getting an asset in return for Downs, except make you look silly for overvalueing Down’s market value or making it seem as if you think very little of your fellow GMs or rather, you’re a fool.
I’m all for teams trying to be a little greedy and holding out a little to get the most for the players that contending teams might covet but don’t be a whore about it. If they could get a B level prospect for a package of C level prospects then they should be happy. But asking for a young commodity already at the mlb level or promising blue chip prospects is aiming to high and runs the risk of immediately turning teams off who might decide to look elsewhere simply because they don’t see you settling for a night at Apple Bee’s when you originally demanded dinner at Ruth Chris’.
I would laugh in your face if asked me to do something for you in exchange for dinner at Apple Bee’s
However, I am willing to negotiate where I will do that something for you plus offer you dinner at Apple Bee’s in exchange for that dinner at Ruth Chris’.
Johnsmith4, the point is no team will offer anywhere close to what he wants. So AA has two choices; settle for a more realistic package of B/C prospects or hold onto Downs till he hits free agency. The first choice is obviously better for the Jays in the long run.
No 2 month relief rental is worth a top prospect, not even Soria.
I see your point if those were AA’s only two choices….but…he has other choices…resign him or take compensation picks….these options seem better than marginal prospects….
AA can certainly try and resign Downs after the season but he could still trade him and do that once he becomes a FA anyway. Downs is going to be a type A FA next year and the only way the Jays could get compensation is to offer him arbitration. a) It’s unlikely any team will sign him and give up their 1st rnd pick next year b) if Downs and his agent understand that recent history has shown that only elite closers get signed as type A’s then they might decide it better for them to accept the Jays aritration offer. If that happens then is it really wise for the Jays to have a relief pitcher earning north of the $4 mil he earned this year?
The picks aren’t guaranteed though. He only has a score of 74 points, while still a Type A, barely compared to other positions. The way I understand it is that if a team signs two FA, both Type A’s worth 74 and 78 points respectively, the team that had the 78 point FA receives a comp pick and the signing team’s first rounder, while the other team would only receive the comp pick.
The point is that there are going to be a lot of FA out there worth more than Downs and two picks isn’t guaranteed, hell, a lot of good relievers have been shut out of the league the last few years when offered arbitration and rejected it. AA might find himself forced to pay Downs next year whether he wants to or not because no one is risking it on middle/end of their career relievers these days.
No, that’s incorrect. The team with the 74 would just get bumped to the teams next pick. So the signing team would give up their first and second round picks in that order. Or their second and third in some cases.
“The way I understand it is that if a team signs two FA, both Type A’s worth 74 and 78 points respectively, the team that had the 78 point FA receives a comp pick and the signing team’s first rounder, while the other team would only receive the comp pick.”
They would receive the second rounder. See: 2009 Yankees. See: 2009 MLB draft
Soria is signed long-term, to a team friendly contact. Do your homework.
He said “No 2 month relief rental is worth a top prospect, not even Soria.” He was making a comparison, Downs is not Soria and not even two months of Soria would be worth a top prospect. He’s not implying that Soria has two months left on his contract, but rather that IF he only had two months left not even he would be worth it.
Ahhhh but you see. Sometimes I have a hankering for a skanky chick who thinks Apple Bee’s is fine dining because it’s not in the food court and has four walls, a roof and a seperate entrance from the mall. š
Just kidding. I’ve upgraded my standards in women over the eyars. That means they want Red Lobster or better.
It sounds like you and I have a deal š
Ummmm…..unless you’re a woman “johnsmith4” this conversation has gone a little weird…haha.
Where is the dislike button? You seem to be greatly missing the point here. First of all, Downs has been excellent for a few years now, so it’s probable somebody WILL sign him. Maybe not to give up a first rounder, but after signing another Type A, or a 2nd division team? Absolutely.
Secondly, the Jays would be just fine if he took arbitration and they had him for another year at low money. So please tell me why it would be a mistake to offer arbitration? 2 picks (including at minimum 1 first rounder) or a stellar, late inning lefty on a 1 year deal. Seems like a pretty valuable chip to me.
And I’m not saying they should expect to get guys like Kelly, but they shouldn’t settle for a mediocre package just because they can’t get better.
(1) The BLue Jays have no need to shed payroll. They are owned by a company with more money than the Steinbrenners.(2) Your assertion that 99% of teams would not sign Downs is incorrect. He is a Type A Free Agent, meaning the signing team will have to give up 1 draft pick (the other being a supplemental pick). Any team finishing in the bottom 15, would give up their 2nd round pick, or 3rd round pick if they sign multiple players (ones having a higher rating than Downs). There are tons of scenario’s where he signs, and he will sign a multi year last contract with the Jays or other team. He is that good. And anyone who doesnt think Down is worth a 2nd or 3rd round pick doesnt know baseball.(3) I dont think anyone in baseball, save for the brilliant yankees fans at MLBTR, are suggesting AA “looks silly” or is a “Fool”. Rather, he is doing his job.(4) I did not not read the final paragraph of your post, as the first two were complete nonsense. Have a nice day.
Yeah, yeah, and at past deadlines, we heard nobody would give up a draft pick for Justin Speier, Marco Scutaro, Frank Catalanotto, or Kelvim Escobar either. And those guys along with Rod Barajas and Ted Lilly would be fools to turn down arbitration.And yet the Jays have Adam Lind, Brett Cecil, Trystan Magnuson, Aaron Sanchez, Asher Wojciechowski, Noah Syndergaard, Kellen Sweeney, Marcus Knecht, and a few others thanks to the compensation system. The Jays know how to work the system. Worst case, they get Scott Downs for another year. No reason they can’t trade him then either.
You can sit here and laugh at him and call him crazy, but I’ve yet to see him fail to get whatever he wants in a trade yet. I’ll see what he can pull out of the hat before I start insulting AA.
How great has Escobar been thus far?
Would think Sox and Yanks would understand the value of supplemental pick via Chamberlin himself and Bucholz. The Jays have done fine enough theirselves with their supplemental round picks the past few years to demand this type of return.
Either other teams give the Jays a piece they like moving forward, or they’ll get that piece through the draft. They are not going to settle for nothing prospects.
Bingo. Cecil is an example for the Jays as well.
Lind as well
Honestly I think asking for Kelly is outrageous but asking for Joba is a starting point. Joba’s only value now is based on his having 3 more years of team control and a big fastball (that he can’t seem to control). If Joba’s value was measured in prospect terms he would probably barely make the Yankees top 10. I’m sorry but right now this guy is viewed as no more than a middle reliever himself, he hasn’t taken to starting or being at the back of the bullpen so I don’t think we can anoint him the chosen one. Sure he has 3 extra years of team control, but starting next year that will be valued in millions (and since he started his arb. number will be higher than most middle relievers). Yes the potential is there but now it is costly, no longer are you getting it at a league minimum.
New York will have to give up a decent prospect for Downs, he might not be a closer but he would go a LOOONNNGGG way to shaping up that bullpen.
Excellent point….AA is probably viewing Joba as another Brandon Morrow situation….the gap between both sides probably can be closed.
Kelly is a long shot. For it to materialize, Boston would have to be open to getting some good or a very good prospect in return. Must be very difficult to reach agreement because, presently, Kelly and the Toronto prospects coveted by Boston are all wearing halos within their respective organizations. However, given Boston is one of the favourites…it makes you wonder.
Agree 100% on Joba. Downs would be their second best reliever, pitch 5 games a week and might be their 3rd or 4th best pitcher overall.
Casey Kelly is a long shot im sure, but i imagine the blue jays are offering more than Downs for him.
Third? Really? Sabbathia, Burnett, Downs, then Riviera? I assume you’re valuing Downs higher than Burnett, not Riviera, but that’s still a bit ridiculous. Downs would be one of the best arms in their bullpen, but not the best, and still not better than Burnett (unless Burnett loses a hand in a hot tub fan).
AJ? Are you kidding me? AJ is the only player on the Yankees roster, that could single handedly lose a playoff serious for you. He is as reliable as British Petroleum when the chips are on the table. He is scary in those situations. Can give up 6 runs in 10 minutes, and break your heart.
I don’t really like Burnett, but I still think he’s a better pitcher than Downs. “Better” is an inexact word to use in this situation: Burnett will give you more innings, and pitch some great games, but Downs will be more reliable over the innings he does pitch. And he’s not as dominant as Riviera where the answer is clear (between Riviera and Burnett). But I think Burnett would get you more in a trade, even ignoring age, and that’s as good a measure as any.
Finally some clearheaded sense on this board.
Yankees shouldn’t offer much more than a B-level prospect since you know Girardi will just use him as a LOOGY (he’s not, of course). That should be Cashman’s negotiating ploy: “I know he can get out righties, but my manager will only use him for one lefty hitter every three games. Why the hell should I give you more than a High-A right fielder?”
At which point Anthopoulos says “Then why are we talking? click.”
AA will offer Downs Arby if he is not dealt for guys AA wants. Downs will also get offers from other teams when and if he hits FA. AA could always reup him for 2 more years
I would think like every year a contending team will blink and give in but we will see
Didn’t Billy Smith try that brinkmanship tactic with Johan Santana, hoping a contender would blink and give him the moon? How did that work out for him?
I think both the Yanks and Red Sox this year have shown that they’re NOT panicking, and will only make a deal if the price is right.
As for arbitration, AA has to take a calculated risk that Downs won’t accept it. Frankly, after what happened to Juan Cruz, and given Downs’ age, wouldn’t be a shock if Downs accepted arbitration, at which point not only do the Jays miss out on the comp picks, they also will increase their payroll, as Downs would likely command a raise.
Bird in one hand…if it’s a halfway decent offer, I’d make the trade were I the Jays.
Downs would get $4-5M in arbitration. The Jays would have absolutely NO problem with that. They have a low payroll due to the lousy nature of their team. They have no issues expanding it.
Well the thing is, they’re probably going to HAVE to expand payroll next year regardless, if they want to field a team. Wells gets a huge bump in salary, I’d have to imagine Bautista will be getting a decent raise in arb, a ton of other players are going to hit arb as well, Overbay, Downs, Frasor, Buck are all FA. They really need to think about dishing out another $4-5 mil on a mid-30s reliever.
Sorry…Jays have plenty of room for payroll…next year..Halladay and BJ Ryan come off the books….Arencibia replaces Buck….Wallace replaces Overbay…..Escobar already replaced Gonzalez…not our issue…
The Jays payroll, entering next season is approximately $65M, taking raises into account. Something tells me they can afford it.
Actually, the jays don’t have to expand payroll next year at all. Wells is already maxed out, so no change next year, the money that went to Philly in the Halladay deal is off the books. Overbay, Downs, Frasor are off the books and Gregg reups for close to what he’s at right now. Buck is replaced by Arencibia and Wallace replaces Overbay. There is plenty of pitching depth that will cover any holes in the bullpen. So if anything, the only real change in payroll will be marginal, mostly covering for a few arbitration cases.
Downs makes 4MM now, if he went to arbitration he would most likely be looking at 6MM, possibly more.
comparing this to the Santana situation is ridiculous. just because the Twins were morons doesn’t mean every other team has to be the same. everyone said the same thing last season when the Jays HAD to settle for less in trading Halladay. what happened then? the Jays kept Halladay and traded him in the offseason for a lot more than they were offered last summer.
AA is a smart GM, he knows what he is doing.
If I were the Yankees, I’d jump on the Scott Downs for Joba offer, they would immediately improve their bullpen for this year, then when Downs leaves as a Type A free agent, they would get two 1st round draft picks in next years draft to try and get the next Joba, but hopefully this time they would take someone that is not a headcase.
In fact, come to think of it, I would trade Joba for the two draft picks alone.
Peter D is the most sensible Yankee fan of all-time. Seriously.
I don’t see it. I’d never trade a high upside 25 year old for 2 months of a 34 year old reliever. A good reliever sure. Plus he can always accept arbitration and then you don’t get picks.
In which case, you then have one of the top 3 left-handed relievers in the game signed on to set up for Mariano Rivera (a dangerous 1-2 combo). That would really suck wouldn’t it.
Not at all man, don’t get me wrong I’d love to have the guy on the team. The initial trade just seems like a poor decision long term. But like they say, flags fly forever…
I don’t think he’s a Yankee fan.
why he sounds intelligent!
If he’s the same Peter D I’ve seen elsewhere, he’s a Jays fan.
AA is a smart GM. Why wouldn’t he ask for a top quality return for Downs? Why not ask, and if someone bites then Downs is gone. When Saturday comes around I am sure the price goes down a little but the Jays love Downs so if they dont get what they want they will keep him. AA offered arbitration to most guys last year. He will offer to Downs, if he accepts then you have a great piece in the Pen…
I find it doubtful that Downs would accept arbitration because this is his last chance at a big payday. He’s one of the best lefty set up men in the league at the moment so why would he settle for another one year deal?
It very well might not be a big payday because teams will be very hesitant about giving up a first or second round pick to sign him. I think there have been too many precedents in the past couple of years that would tell Downs to accept arbitration if it was offered to him.
This is where I disagree, as shown during this trade deadline, enough teams have shown great interest in Downs that one of them would be willing to give up the pick to sign him as a free agent. Downs falls into an elite group of relief pitchers where an exception would be made.
Particularly for the price that the elite arm would come at…probably only 5 million a year.
I agree. The Jays will offer because Downs has an excellent chance at signing a nice contract with another team. Not many LHP who have been as solid as Downs over the past 4 years. There is a reason he is such a hot topic this deadline… Plus how can you not like a guy who writes his kids names on the mound when he comes in to pitch?
I guess I have to agree with you to a certain degree. The point that I should have been making is that it can be a crap shoot. There are many variables at play such as payroll restrictions, a desire to go younger, etc. to go along with the lost draft pick. There might be one or more teams willing to sign Downs to go along with type A status, but then again there might not. You also have to take in consideration what Scoot Downs is thinking and whether or not he would accept arbitration (which we will never know until he does it). I guess the point I am trying to make is that even though he is a type A free agent, he is not a slam dunk to collect picks from like a Matt Holliday or C.C. Sabathia.
I think the problem with a lot of people is they look at prospects from a productivity or potential MLB player stand point. You have to try to look at them more as moving blocks, or trade chips. In other words, Joba Chamberlain could’ve gotten the Yankees Dan Haren so why would they trade him for a 2 month relief rental? At this point, Chamberlain is a project – not a prospect – but if a team like AZ is willing to make him a key part in a deal for one of the best pitchers available, his value gets inflated.
The same could be said for Kelly. The Red Sox could potentially move Kelly for a premier, impact player. The Jays asked for him last year for Halladay, but the Red Sox declined. He’s done nothing but thrive in the minors. There’s no reason to believe he won’t be a stud in the majors. That being said, a prospect’s worth is often established by past trade offers. A lot of people feel that the Red Sox could’ve had AGon last year if they were willing to part with Kelly. If they weren’t willing to part with him for AGon, why would they be willing to part with him for a 34 year old relief pitcher?
“He’s done nothing but thrive in the minors.”Except, you know, for all of this year.”There’s no reason to believe he won’t be a stud in the majors.”There’s plenty of reason to believe he won’t be a stud in the majors. He’s a pitching prospect who hasn’t succeeded above A-ball.
But the rest of your post is correct. You have to view prospects in context of the rest of the trade market, not just what some people think they might do at the major league level.
Hes a 20yo in AA. Hes 4 years younger than the average player. The Red Sox like challenging their prospects by putting them at a level where they will find it tough so they will have to work harder than if they stuck them at a level where they would put up pretty numbers. His BABIP is also .366
His last 3 starts: 2-0, 17.2 IP, 19 H, 5 R, 4 BB, 15 K, 23/12 GO/FO
This is a guy in his first year pitching full time. Hes exactly where the Red Sox would have hoped he would be.
Kelly is definetly a hot prospect. Pitching as regular starter in AA at 20 is exceptional.
I don’t think AA will be “talking down” Kelly’s value when discussing trade….However, AA has no reason to be interested in marginal prospects.
philpbarnes stole my thunder, but I’ll respond regardless. You can not go by Casey Kelly’s numbers. He is striking out a ton of batters, almost 9 per 9 innings at a very young age of 20. The Red Sox are pushing him and, so far, I’d say he’s actually exceeding expectations.
The fact that the Sox are not trying to inflate his numbers should say something. I don’t think they have any intention of trading him and you will see him in fenway by the end of 2012.
You know, the same was said for this one guy the Sox had that really struggled at AA. What was his name again? Oh yeah, PEDROIA. Kelly is the top prospect in the Boston system, and he’s one of the top prospects in the MLB. The kid’s good. Next time try putting aside your Yankee bias and look at the facts. Yes, Kelly has struggled this year, but so have many others making the transition from A to AA, and manny, many of them are succesful MLB players.
Even if he takes arbitration AA will work out a two year deal and keep him. This whole notion that he HAS to trade him and shed payroll show a lack of knowlage in the Jays situation.
They have no press from ownwership to shed payroll.
What’s the value in keeping him? If you are rebuilding, you would be much better off taking a commodity (solid middle reliever) that is highly coveted by a competitive team, and trading that for prospects to fill holes, than you would in keeping the player. Clearly, Downs is not getting the Jays to where they want to be any more than Dotel is to the Pirates, Capps to the Nats, Aardsma to the Ms, etc…..Once you have a team that can go all the way, THEN you make sure those roster spots like middle relief, strong bench, etc…. are strengthened. Which is precisley why teams like the Yanks and Red Sox are going after Downs, and why the Jays should trade him now while his value is so high. What if he gets hurt, or his numbers go down to Type B level?
oooooh….you are making us so scared of all the bad things that can happen if we don’t trade Downs…..all of us Jay fans are now going to phone the Jays switchboard and demand AA immediately trade Downs…even if it means only getting a D level prospect. Hell let’s settle for the rights to Ron Blomberg.
Where did he ever say that AA should settle for a vastly inferior prospect package? All he did was make a very clear and concise argument on why keeping Downs on a team that is rebuilding isn’t getting maximum value or the wisest decision. You sir, need to calm down.
Too late….me and my friends already flooded the Jays switchboard with calls.
its negotiating, i dont expect AA to get prospects of that quality, and i dont expect AA to keep downs, ideally he trades for a prospect who is ready 2 years down the road, instead of taking the comp picks and possibly waiting 4 years for them to develop.
The Yankees need to send Joba down to Scranton Wikes/Barre and let the guy regain command of the zone and throwing quality strikes.
They don’t need to be trading away 24 year old pitchers that have some potential
The 2007 Chamberlain is long gone, but there is nothing a stint in the minors cannot fix
I wouldn’t do this deal. There is a difference of 10 years in age, multiple years of cost controllability, and Joba’s stuff is still there. He just can’t locate it. It has little to do with Eiland and not being able to help him. It has to do with Joba and maturing. Joba hasn’t even entered his prime, in fact not even close by several years. While I was the first to jump on board for Joba going to Arizona for Haren, I am not of that same mindset for a middle relief specialist at the age of 34. I can’t totally see this guy getting injured down the stretch from over use. And yeah, I agree with others including Yankfans78 about the reality of the situation for Toronto. His type A status will certain affect his market for potential bidders going into the winter. Offering arbitration would probably be a very costly mistake for Toronto in the long run. AA knows this. You’ll see the asking price change, just don’t know if it will be too late by then.
Joba is just about to enter his expensive years, so not only will he continue to be a bust, he will be overpaid. Now is the time to deal him. I also think Toronto would love for Downs to accept arbitration, they would get to keep one of the best lefty relievers on a one year contract. No way this happens.
False statements on the reality of the situation for the Jays. The reality is:
1.) Toronto can afford to keep Downs salary, we’re way below our allowable payroll.
2.) He won’t accept arbitration he will be looking for a mult-year deal. Somebody will offer him a major leauge contract we’ll get our picks.
3.) If offered Arb and Downs does accepts he won’t get much more then he did season and the Jays can afford this. We’ll be happy with him back for another season anchoring a young bullpen.
4.) If Yankess fans are using the argument he will accept arbitration, wouldn’t that work in your favor? Then you get a great reliever for two years. Double edgred sword there.
5.) In no way will the jays taking anything back other then high-upside talent. Fact of the matter, no matter what you think they should do.
1) Agree
2) Most likely scenario
3) Agree with your first sentence, not so much with the 2nd one. Wouldn’t 2 draft picks be more valuable to a rebuilding Jays team than a quality back-end, non-closer bullpen arm?
4) Personally, if we traded for Downs I would rather have him decline arb and go sign somewhere else because I think the draft picks are more valuable than 1 year of Downs at ~6MM. 2 draft picks – loss of production from Downs to Downs’ replacement >>>>>>>> Scott Downs, imo.
5) You can’t possibly know that as a fact, like you claim to, unless of course you are in close personal contact with AA himself. I understand that those are AA’s demands and what he wants, but you don’t know for a fact that he wouldn’t accept a B level prospect package.
1) Agree
2) Most likely scenario
3) Agree with your first sentence, not so much with the 2nd one. Wouldn’t 2 draft picks be more valuable to a rebuilding Jays team than a quality back-end, non-closer bullpen arm?
4) Personally, if we traded for Downs I would rather have him decline arb and go sign somewhere else because I think the draft picks are more valuable than 1 year of Downs at ~6MM. 2 draft picks – loss of production from Downs to Downs’ replacement >>>>>>>> Scott Downs, imo.
5) You can’t possibly know that as a fact, like you claim to, unless of course you are in close personal contact with AA himself. I understand that those are AA’s demands and what he wants, but you don’t know for a fact that he wouldn’t accept a B level prospect package.
Do people not understand negotiating / bargaining? The seller’s first offer (in this case, the Blue Jays with Downs) will and should be high. Especially if they’re the Yanks and Red Sox. AA is trying to sell high (as he should), but I wouldn’t be surprised if his offers to other teams are a little more reasonable than with the Yanks and Red Sox, two teams that no one, especially the other teams in the AL East, wants to “help” get stronger.
It’s just an asking price to see if Yankees or BoSox get desperate enough to offer those prospect. Personally, I think Joba is fairly realistic and he hasn’t achieved anything and he is currently doing pretty horrible. There is not a chance we get Montero or Kelly for Downs who is a very good reliever but those are top 25 prospects.
I think Jays could get Joba + for Downs or Kalish for Downs.
I see the Jays fans have come out in an uproar. What I said earlier isn’t based on anything other than recent history. AA has to hedge his bets and ask “Am I better off trading Downs now and getting the best deal I can or letting him walk and offering arbitration in hopes that a team is willing to sign him and give up a 1st or 2nd rnd pick”?
Clearly GMs value their picks now more than almost any other time in the last decade.
Also, I said that the main objective for the Jays should be to a) shed payroll and b) acquire assets. Regardless of what the owener directives have been or where they stand w/ payroll those should be the objectives of ALL TEAMS NOT CONTENDING WITH PLAYERS HEADED TOWARDS FA. What good does it serve the Jays to keep Downs thru the rest of the season? So they might win 84 games instead of 82? Really?
AA should be trying to flip as many of his pending FA into prospects and saved cash as possible. That’s more players to add into the 2011 mix and more money saved to spend on draft bonuses, international FA and mlb free agents. Unless a player has some intrensic sentimental value that puts people in the seats or is on the verge of breaking a record then he should be moved. It’s all about adding as many assets as you can at this point.
The Yanks are trying to move Chan Ho park. Obviously, they can afford to release him and eat the balance of his deal but if they could manage to save a $200,000 or get a fringe prospect then why not try?
Ok….but why can’t the Jays keep Downs, offer him arbitration and then either take 2 picks (assets) or flip him to a team next year if he accepts arbitration (assets)? Doing that would also increase the number of teams interested (or at the very least, switch them) and you would get different offers.
Chan Ho Park is completely irrelevant because he has no value to the Yankees this year or next.
The Jays can certainly keep Downs and offer him arbitration at the end of the season if they want to. He can certainly be an asset for them again next year. But right now and until they really rasie the talent level of this team they are a good team that will probably finish no higher than 4th place in the enar future. Again, a good GM on a non-contenders main job is to collect assets that can help the team down the road. Asking for Joba or Kelly isn’t realistic. Downs might possible get you a prospect or prospects that might not be as glamorous as those two but can certainly be mlb caliber players.
I’m against the Yanks trading top prospects for Downs in general but I can see them willing to trade a Zack McAlliste or David Phelps caliber player before they trade Joba.
Of late it seems that teams have asked the moon from the Yanks and Red Sox in exchange for their star players (see Santanta, Halladay, etc) almost in an attempt to get them to pay a premium because of how bad they want to win. Both Cashman and Theo seem unwilling to overpay.
AA has three choices. Be proactive and get scouted, known talents that complement their farm system and fills needs, keem him and let him walk after the season and hope to get some sort of FA compensation or keep him and try to extend or resign him this winter. Which of those options is best for a team that seemingly struggles to get over the hump of being a .500 team in the AL East?
You seem to be missing a caveat to option 3: Keep him, have him accept arbitration and then trade him to a team that will have him for a full season, instead of just 2 months. On that note, options two and three are better than taking some garbage like Zack McAllister. The Jays have 904498 back of the rotation types in their system, they certainly don’t need another one. I’m not saying they need to get what this article is saying they’re asking for in order for them to justify trading Downs, but they need GOOD prospects, not just fringe guys for the sake of saying you got something.
How exactly does settling for middling prospects help the Jays get over .500? They’ve developed enough, ok everyday players. That’s WHY they can’t compete. If the Jays are ever going to compete with the Sox, Yanks, and Rays, they need potential stars at every position. To get there, they need to take some risks.
Casey Kelly was drafted one pick before the supplemental round. Joba Chamberlain was a compensation pick. Brett Cecil was picked in the supplemental round by the Jays. If these types of guys are available in the draft, then why not at least gamble on getting one of them rather than taking on guys that you know will never be stars?
But is Joba really still a “top” prospect? His 3 cheapest years of team control are already up, and he hasn’t shown with any consistency that he can either be a front end starter or a back end bullpen arm. Yeah you love the potential, but given now his cost and team control (as well as his M.L. results) that potential is lessening by the day. He might be a little high for Downs, but not by much.
I wasn’t comparing Chan Ho park to Downs but simply showing that even the wealthy Yanks would rather save some money or get a fringe prospect in return for Park rather than simply cutting him and eating his salary. While AA might not be in a situation where he has to cut payroll a good GM should always be looking to cut payroll and/or acquire assets when his team is out of contention and they have a player in their walk year headed into the trade deadling
its obvious that kelly/joba have more value than downs, but AA doesnt shy in including prospects to get a player he wants. AA is all about the quality over quantiy.
joba for downs + prospect
or kelly + hermidia(salary dump to save under the lux tax) for downs + low prospect.
Neal Huntington: if the market NEEDS a reliever…and there could be a huge return…why not shop Hanrahan or Meek?!? You don’t *NEED* to move either, but why not make one available if the return is right? The Pirates are going to try to convert one (or both) into a closer, but again…if they can get significant return for either…why not do it? They BOTH are low priced and the team would maintain control of either for some time.
I hate the way everyone keeps saying “2 month rental”. Yes, you only get Downs for 2 months but then you get 2 high picks as well. There is no way he’ll accept arbitration and if he does then you have a great reliever on a market level one year deal and you can do the same thing again next year (he’ll be type A again and you offer him arbitration again). Obviously the way teams are going after him now someone is going to sign him despite type A. I don’t expect teams to give up their 1st round pick for him but most likely a 2nd rounder (remember Scutaro). So you get Scott Downs for 2 months (3 including the playoffs) plus a supplemental 1st rounder and a 2nd round pick (if Scutaro fetches that Downs certainly does too). Why would Alex Anthopoulos give up Downs then for anything less than 1st round talent. I agree that Kelly, Iglesias and Montero are out of the question but a guy a notch below them like Joba is certainly reasonable.
First of all Zack McAllister was just an example that I throw out there because he’s been mentioned in other trades. There is a world of talent ranging from in between the Joba’s and Kelly’s that the Jays asked for and what Downs value probably commands. In that you’re probably still looking at some pretty good players whether they are bottom top 100. 2nd it amazes me that people seem to rank Joba BELOW that of a prospect. True, he isn’t a prospect anymore, but also keep in mind, despite struggles this guy isn’t exactly a scrub. It amazes me that a player who is young and hits a few bumps can be so easily dismissed as a bust. At age 24 what are his career totals?
324 IP, 332 ko, 138 walks, 3.92 ERA and a 1.40 whip.
Consider how the Yanks rushed him in 2007 going from throwing his 1st pitch in professional baseball to debuting and pitching in the playoffs all in 1 year and then being shuttled back and forth from the pen to the roation to the pen back to the rotation and losing his spot in ST of all places this year.
Also, people make mention of his arbitration years coming up and not being cheap anymore. We’re not talking about a guy going from 400k to 5 mil here. Joba probably won’t sniff more than a $1.5 mil next year. That’s the same we paid Chan Ho Park so he’s still going to be at or below market value and if he can find himself and regain his control then we still come out ahead.
I hate the way everyone keeps saying “2 month rental”. Yes, you only get Downs for 2 months but then you get 2 high picks as well. There is no way he’ll accept arbitration and if he does then you have a great reliever on a market level one year deal and you can do the same thing again next year (he’ll be type A again and you offer him arbitration again).
—————
This is just not true. Let’s say a team did trade a top prospects for Downs.
a) They are trading for 2 month of Downs and that is it. If they did offer him arbitration and he accepts than MORE MONEY is what secures him for 2011, not the prospect they traded him for.
b) Who is to say that a team with a protected pick doesn’t sign him and another type A free agent next year? Then would that pick be worth the same as a player who has made his way thru their system and been tested, rated and produced tangible results?
Comparing an organizations top 3-5 prospect to a high school or college player taken in the 2nd or 3rd rnd of the 2011 draft is almost like comparing a 3 year old to that of an unfertilzed egg and a tube of frozen sperm.
There seems to be a misconception with Yankees and BoSox fans. Last year deadline was the same story. Take what we offer for Halladay or you will lose him for nothing. Jays didn’t settle for an ok package and got two quality prospects and B level prospect in the off-season. As much as Kelly seems to be an ace of the future, is this a garantee? No. Now I’m no saying that Downs is worth Kelly. But saying that Jays NEEDS to shed payrool is as stupid as saying Downs = Kelly. Jays got three scenario, liste in order of preference (I think!)
A) trade Downs but not for b level prospects. It’s not worth it. Even if he qualifies as a Type B you might as well go with the pick.
B) Keep Downs, offer him arbitration and he declines. Jays will get 2 picks (hopefully) and has a chances to draft a top prospect
C) Downs accepts arbitration. It is the least of what the Jays wants but it would not but Jays in finacial trouble. Doing it this way, you dangle Downs at next year trade deadline.
The 3 scenario are more appeling than “AA should take whatever he’s being offered”. If the Jays would of done that with Halladay, we would have some pile of crappy B prospect… Just ask Indians fans!
Finally a team has the balls to treat the Yankees and Red Sox as competitors. You don’t just give a way your assets to those teams because they have money. If they don’t like it then tough. I wish every team would look at them that way.
I don’t think the Jays are landing Montero or Casey Kelly from Boston for Downs. But what else do the Yankees have in their system that the Jays would want? I was just looking at the Yankees minor league rosters/stats and it looks a bit thin. Is Laird’s brother considered a top prospect?
Just to add, these leaks to the press about what AA has supposedly been asking for in return for Downs makes me think that Downs won’t be traded to either of Boston or NY. AA likes to keep things hush hush about potential trades. He’s probably annoyed over the leaks. There are several other clubs out there that want Downs
Wow..this is the last I will say on this subject because people take things out of context and use them to expound nonsense.
I didn’t say the Jays “NEED TO SHED PAYROLL”. I said they should take this “opportunity to shed payroll and acquire as many assets as possible”. Big difference.
Also, I don’t see any teams giving in to the Yanks and Red Sox and accepting garbage for their stars. In fact the Yanks have paid a nice penny to get the players they wanted (see Austin Jackson and Phil Coke in the Grandy deal, Arodys Vizcaino in the Vazquez deal and Tabata and Ohlendorf in the Nady/Marte trade). If anything, it seems as if teams are trying to rape the Yanks and Red Sox in deals when you consider what they were asked to give up vs what they ultimately settled for (see Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay in 2009, Santana in 2008 and Dan Haren this year).
Well…
When someone says…
“Anthopolous’ main objective now that his team his out of contention, should be to shed payroll and to acquire as many assets as he can for the future”
I’ll give you that you didn’t say “NEED”. But Shed payroll means future, like next year. Sorry but trading Downs to save 1.3M will do no good if you get picks in return. Plus, the chance of B level prospect making a impact is minumum… and a B level prospect are usually a few years away from being MLB ready. What are the cost to developped those B level prospect???
And in the Roy Halladay deal, well Jays got their money’s worth… Got the equivalent of what they were asking from the Yanks
As for Haren, well Dbacks got Joe Saunders. I know he has only one more year of arbitration, so 2 less control years than Joba, but Saunders is the more proven player at this time. Until Joba stop blowing games, I’ll take Saunders over Joba…
Well…
When someone says…
“Anthopolous’ main objective now that his team his out of contention, should be to shed payroll and to acquire as many assets as he can for the future”
I’ll give you that you didn’t say “NEED”. But Shed payroll means future, like next year. Sorry but trading Downs to save 1.3M will do no good if you get picks in return. Plus, the chance of B level prospect making a impact is minumum… and a B level prospect are usually a few years away from being MLB ready. What are the cost to developped those B level prospect???
And in the Roy Halladay deal, well Jays got their money’s worth… Got the equivalent of what they were asking from the Yanks
As for Haren, well Dbacks got Joe Saunders. I know he has only one more year of arbitration, so 2 less control years than Joba, but Saunders is the more proven player at this time. Until Joba stop blowing games, I’ll take Saunders over Joba…
Well…
When someone says…
“Anthopolous’ main objective now that his team his out of contention, should be to shed payroll and to acquire as many assets as he can for the future”
I’ll give you that you didn’t say “NEED”. But Shed payroll means future, like next year. Sorry but trading Downs to save 1.3M will do no good if you get picks in return. Plus, the chance of B level prospect making a impact is minumum… and a B level prospect are usually a few years away from being MLB ready. What are the cost to developped those B level prospect???
And in the Roy Halladay deal, well Jays got their money’s worth… Got the equivalent of what they were asking from the Yanks
As for Haren, well Dbacks got Joe Saunders. I know he has only one more year of arbitration, so 2 less control years than Joba, but Saunders is the more proven player at this time. Until Joba stop blowing games, I’ll take Saunders over Joba…
Why do you fill 90% of your posts with random Yankee nonsense that doesn’t relate to the topic and that nobody cares about?
calling Downs just a middle reliever is just stupid. if he had all the same stats with 20+ SV would that make him any different? ohhh he would have 20+ SV then he MUST be awesome! but now he’s not? It’s not Downs fault that Gregg is the one getting the SV. Downs has had closing experience.
he is one of the best relievers available period. if you want him, pay up!
The Jays are not in a position of needing the shed payroll. even if the Jays offer Downs arbitration and he excepts thats not a bad situation for the Jays. the Jays themselves could ADD more payroll in the offseason to build a team that could contend for 2011, so having Downs next year could turn out to be an advantage for them.
don’t compare this to the Twins where they settled for less in trading Santana. a lot of people said the Jays HAD to settle for less to trade Halladay last summer, and what happened? the Jays waited and then traded Halladay in the offseason for more than what they were offered last summer.
why should the Jays settle for less now for Downs? even if the Jays take the picks, they could turn out to be better than any top prospect they are asking for now.
I don’t even think the Jays want to deal with the Yankees. if they did why would they even ask for Montero who they don’t even need. the Jays already have TWO top catching prospects in the minors. JP Arencibia right now in AAA- .311/.364/.650/1.014/ 29 HR/ 30 D/ 74 RBI
what makes Montero so valuable? in AAA right now- .274/.349/.459/.808/ 10 HR/ 23 D/ 43 RBI. there is no guarantee that Montero himself will amount to anything. ALL prospects OR draft picks are POTENTIAL.
don’t settle for less AA!!
JP Arencibia is far from a top prospect. Hes much older than Montero. Montero is 20 years old and dominated double A pitching at 19. JP Arencibia is 24 and doing everything in a REPEAT year in triple A after a very disappointing 09. He’ll fit in perfect with the blue jays though projecting hitting below .250 for power with a high k/bb. Arencibia should hold it down for 2 years until the real prospect D’Arnaud is ready.
Clearly…Montero is the best of the three…
JP vs D’Arnaud….I have to characterize JP as the bird in the hand and D’Arnaud…Jiminiz….and Perez as three birds in a bush.
Montero isn’t a catcher in the bigs so your comparison is worthless.
hullo: you hit the nail on the head! Montero is going to end up at 1B or DH, so this argument is worthless.
Montero isn’t a catcher in the bigs so your comparison is worthless.
He is repeating AAA and it’s a hitter’s league but you can’t take away what he’s doing down there. Best hitter in the minors all year? Maybe.
He is repeating AAA and it’s a hitter’s league but you can’t take away what he’s doing down there. Best hitter in the minors all year? Maybe.
JP Arencibia is far from a top prospect. Hes much older than Montero. Montero is 20 years old and dominated double A pitching at 19. JP Arencibia is 24 and doing everything in a REPEAT year in triple A after a very disappointing 09. He’ll fit in perfect with the blue jays though projecting hitting below .250 for power with a high k/bb. Arencibia should hold it down for 2 years until the real prospect D’Arnaud is ready.
The bluejays do realize that Downs is a reliever, don’t they? Lets see here, from the redsox, kelly- future starter on the team, iglesias-future starting ss on the team, from the yankees, montero or joba? Bluejays need that price to go down or they wont be getting anything.
Mr. k realizes that Joba is a reliever, doesn’t he? Lets see here, he’s not really a good one either…
hmmmm….hard to talk down Joba’s value….his situation is comparable to Brandon Morrow’s situation….Joba, like Morrow, becomes available when the Yanks lose patience with his development…..patience is probably starting to grow thin.
Can see Jays putting back to starter and working Joba similar to how they have worked Morrow back into starting.
that’s an excellent comp, Joba and Morrow. Joba has great stuff, but the Yanks have misued him, and the level of trust is probably pretty low between both parties. If Chamberlain is to reach his potential, it’ll likely have to be with another team.
Having said that, I thought the Mariners were crazy giving up on Morrow and only getting a middle reliever back from Toronto. Can’t blame AA for trying to go back to that well again.
similar comparison but not really. the biggest difference is yankees babied joba, treated him right, gave him time to flourish and he didn’t hit unfair expectations that were set on him because of his success in the bullpen… morrow was mishandled from day one by the mariners… so while it is somewhat comparable, the likely hood of joba coming here and suddenly ‘get it’ is more unlikely because he is coming from an organization that has handle him well.
Downs is really good and he’s a type A free agent. AA and the Jays are right to ask for a lot. Also, just my opinion as a Jays fan – I don’t want Joba; also I realize that Montero is too much for Downs. I see Cincy coming in and taking Scott, definite underdogs here. Gotta love Anthopolous’ tenacity though, it’s only Wednesday, it’s within the division and great bullpen help is a hot commodity. JP would have traded this guy for peanuts. Go AA!
Yeah… and future is garanteed isn’t it??? Oh it’s not… since when… It’s know across the whole universe that BoSox and Yanks overhype their prospects. 10 years ago, Mark Prior and Kerry Wood were going to be unreal… for sure. What happen… injury. Adam Loewen… top of the rotation prospect for sure.. what happens, injury. The fact is that prospect are prospect and its still a crapshoot. Yes some have better chance of getting there. Look at Westmoreland. Last year he was the unreal prospect… the hidden gem… Now his future is a bit more cloudier because of injuries.
Remember the Angels.. The same Angels that hold on to Brandon Wood for so many years saying that he’s the REAL DEAL. What going on with him now???
Really? You’re pointing out players that got injured as the reason not to believe the hype of Yankees/Red Sox prospects? That makes no sense whatsoever. Now, if you were to have listed overhyped prospects that just flat out didn’t perform, you’d have a case, albeit a marginal one because every team in the league hypes their prospects and every team in the league has ones that fail to ever make anything out of themselves.
Also, Prior wasn’t ever a Yankees prospect, they drafted him but couldn’t sign him.
Simply put….Montero is a great prospect….end of story
I concur.
There is no doubt about that. My point is that prospect are prospect… you don’t know what they will become at the mlb level. What will happen when team will find the hole in Montero’s swing, will he be able to adjust. MLB team will disect his swing and WILL find a hole and exploit it. He might be good enough to adjust to it. He’s still a PROSPECT… nothing is set in stone… yet.
if your using the oh injuries happen to prospects and they never overcome it the very same can be said of downs if he goes to the yankees throws one pitch and blows out his shoulder
What are you talking about? tucker1980 said that the Red Sox and Yankees overhype their prospects and then went on to list a bunch of guys that didn’t have success due to injuries, and to me that’s not good supporting evidence. Thus, I suggested that he should have listed prospects that made it to the majors healthy and were just flat out not good.
According to a few reports the yankees offered Montero for Soria. KC and Soria said no.
Downs is arguably the best lefty reliever in the game, a set-up man – not a middle reliever. He can also close in a pinch. Sure Soria is the better reliever and holds more value as a closer but most trade names never include other players.
Toronto can add other players or prospects if it’s a guy they want. Yunel Escobar cost us our All-Star shortstop (well he should have been an all-star) Gonzalez and this is a guy Boston was all too happy to get rid of. We flipped him and two mediocre prospects for a player who “could” turn out to be the Roberto Alomar of shortstops (Alomar compared him to Vizquel and Ripken – I’ll take that.
Downs being a type A doesn’t much matter. He won’t net a type A. Jays fans thought Scutaro would give us a first rounder and again though Burnett would. Teams that sign Downs will probably sign two to four other star players on the free agen market. Downs will not accept arbitration and it is said that several teams will be willing to offer teo or three year deals.
Toronto is not far off themselves from making a serious run and keeping downs themselves would not be a terrible idea – after all they could use the best lefty reliever in the game for themselves.
If the Jays trade him they get A-list prospects back or it’s not worth their time. The Jays probably have 15 guys in the system that could project to be number 3 starters. Why bother trading for another one. If you trade him you want a guy who projects to be an Ace of a number 2. If you trade for a 1b he needs to be a higher talent than Wallace. If you trade for a catcher he needs to be above JPA (and I can’t think of anyone who is in terms of hitting).
The jays were not all that high on Joba before. Boston has a better system – they could probably get it done – but it has to be a player that in 2-3 years will take a job away from a guy we have. That means top 3-5 prospect or forget it.
Toronto has no financial troubles. Team payroll next year is under 40 million and the team has a budget of around $130 million. Paying Downs 2 million more for next season is nothing.
A sub .300 OBP means Gonzalez definitely should not have been an All-Star.
Get real…the guy had 17 homeruns at the all-star break.
It still doesn’t change the fact that he had an abysmal OBP, ranked ahead of only Cesar Izturis and Yuniesky Betancourt, if memory serves.
So what…he hit 17 homeruns before the all-star game.
Plus….he got us Yunel Escobar.
The fact that he and Collins netted you Yunel has nothing to do with this conversation.
As for the actual discussion, I don’t know what else to say, Gonzalez’s OBP was well below league average and I don’t think that 17 HR’s nullifies that. I suppose we’ll just have to agree to disagree.
Sure we can agree to disagree….why not?
While I agree with you that Gonzalez has a poor OBP I think you have to consider where in the line-up the player would go. At the top of the order OBP is important – but it’s less important in the 4 hole. Granted The Yankees are a different story because the team is able to get both OBP and power throughout the line-up. Most teams have to balance it out because they have financial constraints.
The most important number is not really OBP but OPS. OBP is fine in the first 3 spots in the order get him on so the best hitters can get em in. Gonzalez had a .793 OPS when we traded him. I’ll take a .793 OPS hitter with 17 homers and 25 doubles over Elvis Andrus who has .357 OBP and a .672 OPS with no homers and 12 doubles. Sure Andrus has a few more singles and takes a few more walks but this year Gonzalez is a far better and scarier bat in the order.
There is absolutely no way you take a guy with .065 points more on the OBP when you lose over a hundred points on the OPS. I mean if we go by this year and you should, Gonzalez has been a better hitter than Jeter. Jeter has a .731 OPS which is not that good. And Agonz is FAR superior in the field even if he doesn’t get the popularity vote at awards time.
In fact I hope Jeter finishes HUGE because I really want him to get the 4-5 year 80- 100 million deal from the Yanks.
I understand that Gonzalez has more power, but power isn’t everything and to me an All-Star should be able to get on base at least at a league average clip. And I don’t know where Gonzalez was batting in the Jays lineup but a .793 OPS for your cleanup hitter is not very good, it’s solid for a SS, but not for a hitter in the 4 hole. And yes, I’ll take the better OBP and SB totals from Andrus over the slugging points from Gonzalez, that and Andrus has the higher upside as well. Yeah Jeter is having a poor season so far, I’m not entirely sure why you brought that up, and Gonzalez has always been a better defender, so again, not sure why you mentioned it.
Get real…the guy had 17 homeruns at the all-star break.
Leading all shorstops in homers, slugging, and playing exceptional defense. He was better than Andrus.
yes but andrus had a whopping 2 hr’s
A sub .300 OBP means Gonzalez definitely should not have been an All-Star.
Pastornicky and Collins are “mediocre” prospects?? Sheesh. Both are under 21 and excelling in AA. Either of them may make meaningful contributions to the Braves as soon as 2011. They are both real good prospects, was sorry to see Tornto let them go.
They were not considered to be premium prospects in the Jays system. So if they are considered good prospects I suppose it illustrates how good a job AA has done with the farm system since taking over. Going from a near bottom of the league farm system to arguably a top 8 farm system in less than 10 months is impressive. Neither prospect was considered to be MLB starter quality. Collins may be a reliever in the big leagues at some point. They’re not junk but they’re certainly not a list prospects.
mediocre at best. pastornicky may develop in to a utility player, pinch runner and collins is the smallest player to be overhyped so much simply because he’s small since rudy
After reading all your posts here’s what I think..
There is no doubting that joba has potential and might be a good player in the future but he has not lived up to expectiations and the Yankees want to win now. Scott downs is currently one of if not the best left handed relief pitchers in the game right now.
So to me this deal makes complete sense but if the Yankees do think they are overpaying still why just seems chan ho Park to the jays in part of the deal because it was reported earlier in the week that the yankees don’t want him anyways and Toronto could also throw in a decent prospsect on their side.
So the deal would break down something like
Toronto sends downs + prospect to New York for chanberlin + park
let me know what you tthink
It all depends on what Alex Anthopolous thinks of Joba Chamberlain. We traded League and a prospect for Brandon Morrow because AA feels that Morrow was misused in Seattle and has the potential to be an Ace or number 2 starter in a few years. League has closer stuff but you trade a closer for an Ace or even a number 3 starter every time when you are building.
If AA thinks Joba has the “potential” to be an Ace or number 2 starter then The Jays would easily trade Downs for Joba – no question about it. If AA feels that Joba can’t start and will be a future reliever then I doubt he has any interest.
The Jays passed on Park in the off season. I see no reason for the Jays to take an aging ineffective reliever. We have several guys in AAA that will be brought up that IMO are better or at least as good as Park – Accardo, Valdez, Carlson etc.
I know that we passed on park on the off season and the only reason I listed him in part of the trade was because all the reports as of today have been that the jays are asking to much so the only way that AA might be able to get this deal done for a top prospect or to is to take on a teams unwanted salary for a year or two
Ahh I see what you are saying. I agree but the Yankees really don’t concern themselves with money. The dirty secret is that the Yankees could triple their team payroll tomorrow and they still would generate a profit. They don’t possibly just to make the whole exercise look more like a contest than it really is.
But I would gladly take Park if Joba and Montero come our way.
Assuming the Sox and Yankees can absorb a new Downs contract, signing him would make either team better and stronger for the next 2-3 years, perhaps longer.
He is more effective than Joba as a reliever. And can anybody say that Kelly or Montero or Iglesias will make the teams better in the next 2-3 years?
The only way that they could is if the Yanks/Sox flip them for a better return than Downs, but as we all know by now he is the best available reliever on the market.
I’d just give strong consideration to trading in an ineffective piece for a player who would make my contending team stronger over the next few years.
The Yankees don’t really need to develop players and wait for them – they can buy their needs. The whole point for them to have prospects is to trade them for current needs. In this case the Yankees have a terrible bullpen. It is the glaring weakness of their club. But they’re not desperate – they will make the playoffs without doing anything to their pen. Still, the Yankees don’t want to take chances and if they can trade a minor leaguer for established pen help then I don’t see what the hold up is.
They offered Montero for Soria. Interestingly, Downs has a 1.02 WHIP this season. Soria has a 1.20 WHIP and Downs is playing more games against tougher line-up. Soria is a closer and younger and cheaper but Downs has been just as effective in the set-up role. Gregg is 22/26 in save chances and Frasor has been getting better lately except the poor game in Detroit. Frasor is also a type A. Both of these guys would be upgrades in the Yankee Pen as well. So why not a Downs, Gregg, Frasor and minor leaguers Tryston Magnuson and another equal level prospect for Montero, Chamberlain and Chan Ho Park (to offset some of the money). The Jays have so many bullpen arms – they can replace those three.
The Yankees would instantly have the best bullpen in all of baseball. Frasor is a type A. So is Downs. Gregg is inconsistent but when he is on and he has his command he’s lights out. He has trouble pitching back to back days – if you look at this numbers he is awful on back to back days but when he has that game in between he is strike out the side kind of closer.
Asking for Joba is not that crazy… Joba was drafted 41st overall so you have a chance at getting two similar players if you don’t resign Downs and if you do he will probably be better than Joba for the 3 or 4 years you have him. Montero is definitely a pipe dream but there’s nothing wrong with asking.
As for Iglesias and Kelly I probably wouldn’t trade Iglesias but Kelly does have a 4.58 ERA in the minors. I think he may end up in the bullpen in the majors… If you think he’s a starter clearly you’re going to value him more than others who think he is a bullpen guy. Kelly was also drafted 30th overall so if the Sox don’t resign Downs they would also get two shots at drafting a similar player.
Neither of those trades seem too crazy to me but, I am a Jays fan
PS Down is a good lefty set-up man not a middle relief pitcher…
Why do you fill 90% of your posts with random Yankee nonsense that doesn’t relate to the topic and that nobody cares about?
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Gee I don’t know? Probably has something to do with a) making or refuting a statement (in this case a poster said the Yanks expect to get something for nothing) and b) feeling the need to support it with something factual. If you prefer to go with the “I hate the Yanks..they suck…they’re bad for baseball because they spend tons of money and my team can’t” then go ahead if you want. However, I don’t subscribe to the “I’m a Yankee fan so I have to hate on every other team and find problems with them because they don’t weat a NY logo”.
Why do you fill 90% of your posts with random Yankee nonsense that doesn’t relate to the topic and that nobody cares about?
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Gee I don’t know? Probably has something to do with a) making or refuting a statement (in this case a poster said the Yanks expect to get something for nothing) and b) feeling the need to support it with something factual. If you prefer to go with the “I hate the Yanks..they suck…they’re bad for baseball because they spend tons of money and my team can’t” then go ahead if you want. However, I don’t subscribe to the “I’m a Yankee fan so I have to hate on every other team and find problems with them because they don’t weat a NY logo”.
Well…
When someone says…
“Anthopolous’ main objective now that his team his out of contention, should be to shed payroll and to acquire as many assets as he can for the future”
I’ll give you that you didn’t say “NEED”. But Shed payroll means future, like next year. Sorry but trading Downs to save 1.3M will do no good if you get picks in return. Plus, the chance of B level prospect making a impact is minumum… and a B level prospect are usually a few years away from being MLB ready. What are the cost to developped those B level prospect???
And in the Roy Halladay deal, well Jays got their money’s worth… Got the equivalent of what they were asking from the Yanks
As for Haren, well Dbacks got Joe Saunders. I know he has only one more year of arbitration, so 2 less control years than Joba, but Saunders is the more proven player at this time. Until Joba stop blowing games, I’ll take Saunders over Joba…
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You can discredit me if you wish but most people (fans of this site, writers, and baseball people) felt that there were better offers on the table for the Phillies for Halladay and for the Dbacks for Haren. My thought process wasn’t based on the “homerism” of a Yankee fan but the consideration of what was demanded/offered vs what was “settled” for. Also, saving $1.3 mil on Downs, plus saving whatever they can save on Overbay or anyone else they might get rid might surely come in handy when next years draft comes up or there’s an international signee they want to offer a big bonues for. If Downs can be turned into a good/decent prospect (not a top 50 but an organizations #5-#10 pick) plus saved cash is that not a good thing?
Jays can definetly hold on to Downs but indications are that they are shopping him and accepting offers. Most of us are just saying that the Yanks and Sox refused to add those players in deals for Santana, Halladay, Haren, etc so why would the Jays bother to ask for them in return for Downs?
Well…
When someone says…
“Anthopolous’ main objective now that his team his out of contention, should be to shed payroll and to acquire as many assets as he can for the future”
I’ll give you that you didn’t say “NEED”. But Shed payroll means future, like next year. Sorry but trading Downs to save 1.3M will do no good if you get picks in return. Plus, the chance of B level prospect making a impact is minumum… and a B level prospect are usually a few years away from being MLB ready. What are the cost to developped those B level prospect???
And in the Roy Halladay deal, well Jays got their money’s worth… Got the equivalent of what they were asking from the Yanks
As for Haren, well Dbacks got Joe Saunders. I know he has only one more year of arbitration, so 2 less control years than Joba, but Saunders is the more proven player at this time. Until Joba stop blowing games, I’ll take Saunders over Joba…
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You can discredit me if you wish but most people (fans of this site, writers, and baseball people) felt that there were better offers on the table for the Phillies for Halladay and for the Dbacks for Haren. My thought process wasn’t based on the “homerism” of a Yankee fan but the consideration of what was demanded/offered vs what was “settled” for. Also, saving $1.3 mil on Downs, plus saving whatever they can save on Overbay or anyone else they might get rid might surely come in handy when next years draft comes up or there’s an international signee they want to offer a big bonues for. If Downs can be turned into a good/decent prospect (not a top 50 but an organizations #5-#10 pick) plus saved cash is that not a good thing?
Jays can definetly hold on to Downs but indications are that they are shopping him and accepting offers. Most of us are just saying that the Yanks and Sox refused to add those players in deals for Santana, Halladay, Haren, etc so why would the Jays bother to ask for them in return for Downs?
Asking for Joba is not that crazy… Joba was drafted 41st overall so you have a chance at getting two similar players if you don’t resign Downs and if you do he will probably be better than Joba for the 3 or 4 years you have him. Montero is definitely a pipe dream but there’s nothing wrong with asking.
As for Iglesias and Kelly I probably wouldn’t trade Iglesias but Kelly does have a 4.58 ERA in the minors. I think he may end up in the bullpen in the majors… If you think he’s a starter clearly you’re going to value him more than others who think he is a bullpen guy. Kelly was also drafted 30th overall so if the Sox don’t resign Downs they would also get two shots at drafting a similar player.
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Just because you may have the chance at drafting players at that position (meaning 41st over all, etc) doesn’t mean you will easily be able to draft a player of similar ability, make up, etc. Sometimes a 1st rnd pick slips to the 2nd or 3rd or later due to injury concerns or sign ability issues like indications that they are leaning towards college to play baseball or even another sport (Austin Jackson, Casey Kelly).
Of course it’s not a guarantee that the draft picks will work out but reality is right now Scott Downs is a better set-up man than Joba. If you don’t think Joba is a starter than you would be crazy not to make the trade. I’m really not sure why Yankees fans love this guy so much, of the guys mentioned above Chamberlain is by far the least desirable
I don’t think anyone is worried about Casey Kelly ending up in the bullpen, at least not any time in the near future. This is his second year of professional pitching and also only the second year he has concentrated as a full time pitcher. As a 20 year old in AA he is young for his level and has taken a little while to adjust. He is lauded for his advanced feel for pitching and plus plus control, and that abandoned him somewhat during his adjustment to AA, but he is getting back on track. Also according to Minorsplits.com he has a 364 BABIP, so he has been unlucky and that is reflected by his 4.28 FIP this year. I couldn’t find a good place to get minor league game logs for Kelly, but I am pretty sure he had a few real bad starts that have inflated his ERA as well.
where to start.
why and the hell would the Jays have ANY interest in Park? I’m sure the Yankees would love to get rid of some garbage, by why would the Jays want him? not a chance in hell.
Downs AND a prospect for Joba AND Park? not even close. right now Downs is more valuable than Joba. what has Joba done? Joba’s value is down right now, he was just demoted from the 8th inning guy. regardless of what POTENTIAL he has, right now he is low. I wouldn’t even want to give Downs for Joba AND a prospect. right now Joba isn’t even a good reliever, and last season he wasn’t a very good starter either. Joba has gotten worse each season he has been in the league. Joba is overrated!
Jesus Montero is another player that is overrated. he doesnt even project as a catcher in the majors and what makes/made him so valuable is that he is a catcher. just because he has hit well up to AA doesn’t mean a lot, and age is irrelevant. age is so meaningless. so many people at the same age are different and so many people at different ages are similar. what Montero has done just because of his age doesn’t make him any more guaranteed to be a star, the same as what Travis Snider did in the minors at an early age doesn’t mean he will be a star.
JP Arencibia IS a top prospect. going into 2009 season he was asked to work on his defense. his hitting took a toll as he did so. Arencibia was drafted in the 1st round in 2007, 21st overall. another way of throwing out age being a factor. Montero didn’t play college ball, but has had 4 years of minor league experience. Arencibia did play college ball and after being drafted has had 4 years of minor league experience. Arencibia is closer to being major league ready AT catcher, and he should be a good hitting catcher.
you could come up with a huge list of cant miss prospect that never amounted to much, but the names are hard to come with because those players are forgotten about.
some think the Jays should trade Downs for less than what the Jays are asking. think about that further. lets say the Jays do that and trade Downs to the Yankees for less. now the Yankees have Downs and if/when Downs leaves after the season the Yankees get the two 1st round draft picks. that that’s how you compete with the Yankees in the AL East, make them better.
downs is a great relief pitcher and can be lights out from the pen.
is it a risk that you might not get the two 1st round draft picks, sure maybe, but its worth the risk.
Downs+Bautista+high prospect for Gardner+Montero flip Montero for high end thirdbasemen like Pirates Alvarez or Rays Beckham
Downs+Bautista+1 high pitching prospect (Stewart, Jenkins, Alvarez) for Gardner+Montero flip Montero + another decent pitching prospect for high end third base prospect like Pirates Alvarez or Rays Beckham
Beckham is a shortstop?
I wouldn’t mind acquiring Gardner if Lewis going somewhere else.
the Jays aren’t going to want Gardner. they already have a full OF once they trade Bautista. Lewis/Wells/Snider with Lind at DH. Montero being a high prospect is an option to be possibly be flipped.
forget Alvarez from Pittsburgh, not going to happen. Alvarez would have to be almost untouchable from Pittsburgh.
Downs himself should get 2 prospects. I don’t believe in what Bautista is doing this season, but he still has a lot of value leading the league in HR. he too himself should get 2 top prospects.
That’s certainly not true regarding Gardner. I am sure the Jays would certainly take Gardner over Fred Lewis any day. In Gardner, you get a much better defender, a better OBP, a better Average, and a better baserunning ability. I don’t think the Jays are building with Lewis in their plans. Gardner is exactly the athletic, top of the order guy the Jays want and don’t have in their system. Gardner would allow the Jays to move Wells to right, Snider to left, and Bautista to 3rd.
I think there is some truth to what you are saying, but I do like Fred Lewis and what he brings to the table. As you have said, it may well be the long term strategy that could dictate a trade like that.
they’re outfield is terrible.
Our OF is terrible. They have to get a CF. A good CF will allow to move VW to left or right. VW would be a good defender in a corner position. That is why I beleive that AA will be looking for OF prospects in upcoming trade. Which brings me to … why did he move Taylor for Wallace….
Our OF is terrible. They have to get a CF. A good CF will allow to move VW to left or right. VW would be a good defender in a corner position. That is why I beleive that AA will be looking for OF prospects in upcoming trade. Which brings me to … why did he move Taylor for Wallace….
Maybe AA’s pulling the old Boras “aim super high, get what you really want” price point cause I mean he’s just a reliever. It’s Scott freaking Downs.
He may be “just a reliever”, but he could be a gamechanger for any contender looking to hold a lead after the 7th. I think it’s only right to separate the Downses of this world from the mop-up types.
Sure, but when the relief market is as thin as it is this year, why not let teams franticaly bid againest each other and see what you can get. You can’t fault AA for aiming high.
I wonder if we could get Fernando Martinez from the Mets.
Downs is this year’s Sherrill. Buyer beware.
Did Sherrill ave the track record that Downs has had over the last 3 years? What are you basing your unfounded opinion on?
I guess you didn’t see the humor in my tongue-in-cheek statement. But I would not give a top prospect in return for a reliever not named Soria.
Downs is more valuable to the yankees then Soria is. . .
Those requests are just another way of AA saying “we are keeping this guy” because I highly doubt any of his requests would be met. I know if the Red Sox gave Kelly or Iglesias I’d be pretty angry…
There’s a Joba in every draft class. This years? Stetson Allie, who was a 2nd round pick. With the draft picks recouped for Downs (at least a supplemental and a second) the Yankees could easily get back another Joba if they are willing to sign him to massive bonus the way Joba and Allie type players demand.