New teams inquired about Nationals slugger Adam Dunn within the past day, tweets Ed Price of AOL FanHouse. FOX Sports' Jon Paul Morosi tweets that the Nats are more likely to trade Dunn than Josh Willingham, while ESPN's Jayson Stark hears that Washington might trade one but not both.
Check back throughout the day for updates, as the Nationals discuss possible deals with other teams and consider keeping their first baseman in Washington long-term:
- Dunn wants a four-year deal, but would consider a three-year offer if the Nationals make him one, according to MLB.com's Bill Ladson. Dunn explained to Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post that he does his best to ignore trade rumors and understands the business side of the game.
- The Nationals want Daniel Hudson plus one of Jordan Danks, Tyler Flowers or Brent Morel for Dunn, a source told Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago. The Nationals offered Dunn for Gordon Beckham, but the White Sox turned the proposal down.
- Another source told Levine that six teams are bidding for Dunn: The White Sox, Angels, Tigers, Rangers and two NL clubs. As you can see below, the Rockies and Giants have been linked to Dunn, but it’s not certain that those two teams are pursuing him now.
- The Rays like Dunn, but don't want to push him into a DH role, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. As much as the Rays likes Dunn's bat, they don't want to risk conflict with the slugger. Danny Knobler of CBS Sports reports that the Nationals asked the Rays for Matt Garza last week. Despite those demands, the Rays will keep an eye on Dunn and Jayson Werth this week, according to ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick (Twitter link).
- The Giants also expressed interest in Dunn, according to Knobler.
- Sherman says the Rockies talked about Dunn, but don't like his poor defense.
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports that the Nationals have yet to offer Dunn an extension in any form, so the trade market is likely to heat up. Rosenthal and colleague Jon Paul Morosi name the White Sox as the most serious suitor, and add that the Tigers, Rangers, and Yankees maintain interest.
I think Dunn is a good fit for the White Sox, but only if they don’t have to trade a hitter. When I heard Quentin was a possible name in the rumor, it didn’t make any sense to me to add a bat and lose another one. If the Sox can get Dunn for Daniel Hudson and some minor leaguers, I’d be ok with it. Then we’d need to sign him to an extension…getting rid of youth for a 2-3 month rental is not my idea of a good time.
Just read on ESPN: The Nats want Daniel Hudson and one of the following 3 Sox prospects: Tyler Flowers, Jordan Danks, or Brent Morel. Sign me up!
If that is the best offer , they’ll hang on to him and offer him Arb.
Hudson and Danks or Hudson and Flowers would be a legit return for Dunn. Definitely better than gambling on picks (worse if Dunn signs with a bottom half team, then the 1st round pick would be protected). Hudson is the Sox top prospect and Danks is a decent prospect and plays at a position of vast need for the Nats.
Did you see what the Angels just gave up for Haren…?
The Nats would be foolish to reject that package. However, I highly doubt the White Sox would be willing to give up that much for Dunn
Too Much???? It would be foolish if they traded Hudson and Morel, but Flowers is a disappointment and Danks has been struggling this season. Hudson and Flower or Danks would be a no-brainer for the Sox.
Hell yeah sign me up. If Hudson and Jordan Danks can get it done, they’d be retarded not to do that deal. And I’m not even that big a Dunn fan. I see Hudson as a number 3 at best, if everything goes his way. And Danks needs to show a hell of a lot more plate discipline before I can even begin to think of him as a major league starter.
You don’t like giving up a Youth for a way better chance at the Post-season and 2 1st-Round draft picks? Just making sure.
They are not guaranteed first round picks.
This.
Just ask the Brewers and Blue Jays how guaranteed those first round picks are.
Sounds like any Dunn trade is going to go right down to Saturday afternoon…
And it may take longer than that. I’m really starting to doubt that he’s going to be traded. The asking price is way to high especially when it’s kinda pointless for the Nats to keep him around since they aren’t going to compete this year and most likely wont for another 2 or 3 years.
sounds about right. with any bat like his normally does.
the hold up on an extension is years, not money.
Dunn wants 4 years. Nats only want to give him 2.
Looks like Dunn will be traded after all. we’ll see. depends on what the other teams offer.
I hope we don’t trade him without getting a MLB-ready player in return. and by MLB-ready, I mean, we put him on our 25 man-immediately.
trading Dunn leaves a MASSIVE, MASSIVE hole in our team.
//CBS’ Danny Knobler says the Giants and Rays also expressed interest, but Nats GM Mike Rizzo asked the latter for Matt Garza last week.//
Yeah, I think Dunn is staying in Washington.
read that too. find it a little hard to believe though.
He may be asking for a high price for Dunn, but Rizzo isn’t stupid enough to demand a deal that has absolutely no chance of happening.
generally, while some of his trade requests may be high, they normally have at least SOME basis in reality.
i think he’s just trying to get kenny to cave but he most defiantly is asking too much of everyone he’s a rental player
I don’t think it’s insane to ask for Garza. I believe he only has 2 more years of team control at salaries that will only get higher over the next few years. Sure, he threw a no hitter yesterday, but Garza has a 4.01 ERA backed by a 4.26 FIP and 4.43 xFIP for his career. This year he has a 4.51 FIP and 4.46 xFIP – right in line with his career numbers.Garza is a more valuable asset than Dunn, no question, but if Dunn is the piece that can push Tampa over the edge this year (which, in a way, comes down to if the upgrade from Aybar to Dunn is greater than the downgrade from Garza to Hellickson) then it is a deal worthy of consideration.He’s yet to turn 27 so he has upside, but Tampa does have a superb replacement for him down the stretch in Hellickson.
also, don’t the Rays have a limited payroll for next season? the drop in performance from Garza to Hellickson is mitigated by the fact that the Rays will save probably $6 million or more in salary next season, not to mention they’ll get draft picks for Dunn.
You forgot to list the Giants and Padres as teams interested in Dunn it would be awesome to see Dunn in a Giants uniform by august 1st he would only increase run production alongside Posey,Huff,Sandoval,and Uribe.
Im sure Rizz is asking for Buster Posey in return for Dunn.
Probably demanding Bumgarner and Posey :).
Finds it so funny how other teams fans make fun of the Nats for asking too much for Dunn. Then stop asking for Dunn, it’s that simple. Just move on.
Gotta agree here. It is quite obvious the Nats are looking to keep him and are quite content with the assets he brings to the table. They seem quite alright with being the trade partner that won’t budge.
I think I’ve heard the quote 40 times now, but Rizzo has said it is gonna hurt to get him. Might as well make it worth your while.
Heck, if they offer Dunn arbitration and no one is willing to pay the price of the draft pick plus the money — how much would they have to give up in order to get Dunn through arb? 13-15 million? That would be right in line with what his contract demands are anyway, and you get him on a 1-year deal.
im not sure why he’s asking for so much the nats have no chance this year and probably next he should be trying to get what he can not trying to hold out for impossible deals
Mostly because he puts butts in seats and because he accounts for a bulk of our offense. He’s not going to just give him away, nor should he. Rizzo is doing his job and for that I’m happy. If Bowden were running the show, Dunn would be on his way to god knows where and our return would be several former members of the 2005 Cincinnati Reds.
They make fun of the Nats because it’s not a very good move. They’ve dragged their feet so long on an extension that even Dunn is getting frustrated. Frankly if I were him, I’m not sure I would even sign one anymore, even if they gave me everything I asked for. I wouldn’t appreciate teams screwing me around.”Baseball is a business.” We hear that all the time, typically from the perspective of the team doing something to a player that he doesn’t want (trade, release, dragging out extension talks, etc). It’s a business for the player too. For most this means money; for some it means a chance to win, or playing in a certain part of the country, or not getting jerked around. If a team is dicking me around, I wouldn’t sign with them. Period. They’re going about their “business?” Well fine, so am I.The Nats need to get roughly two draft picks worth of compensation for Dunn, because that’s their best-case scenario if he walks. It’s still risky. He could sign with a team whose picks are protected, or with a team who signs a higher-rated free agent. And that all ignores the fact that most prospects don’t amount to much anyway. At least if you make a trade, you can evaluate pieces based on some time in professional baseball. The longer they’ve been in baseball against similar competition, the better evaluation you can make and the less likely you get just totally hosed.If they’re going to continue to make offers that are, quite frankly, a joke, that’s their business. They can ask whatever they want. It doesn’t mean it isn’t a bad decision for their franchise worthy of being mocked. There was a story just a few days ago about roughly the exact same situation with Alfonso Soriano. They played it out to the end and collected their compensation picks, who have amounted to absolutely nothing.Rizzo is playing a dangerous game. That’s fine, but he’d better be sure he wins.
You’re right about Rizzo playing a “dangerous game” but I’m going to have to disagree that the Nats “played it out to the end [on Soriano] and collected their compensation picks, who have amounted to absolutely nothing.”
One of the Soriano compensation picks became Jordan Zimmermann. Hindsight is 20-20, of course, but even with the Tommy John surgery I’d rather have Zimmermann than Soriano.
It’s easy to make fun of the Nats – until we got rid of the clown who used to be GM we usually deserved it. With Soriano, though, the team actually made what appears to have been a good decision.
Hard to claim that the picks have amounted to nothing when Jordan Zimmermann is only 24 and Josh Smoker is 21.
People are making similar complaints about the Jays players on the market. I don’t quite get it either.
Yankees trade Montero for Dunn?
Yankees get a proven 40 homerun guy for a “potential” 40 homerun guy
Hell no – the Yankees are not moving a consensus Top 5 prospect for a 2 month rental of a DH. Also remember they don’t get the first round compensation pick from the signing team if Dunn signs with a team in the bottom half of record which is abundantly possible considering the 1B/DH situations of most of the top teams in baseball.
2 months of Dunn for Montero? Seems very risky. Why not just do Swisher for Dunn?
Because the Yankees don’t have a replacement OF for Swisher and Dunn is so tragically awful in the outfield that he gives up an enormous amount of his value. Also Swisher is signed through 2012 and has been equally as productive as Dunn so far this year. By WAR, Swisher has been a more valuable player than Dunn every single season ’06 through ’09.
That would be the ripoff of the century. Quite frankly, any prospect from the top 50-65 list is worth Adam Dunn in terms of value. Dunn brings you value in compensation picks ($10 million) and his production ($5-8 million for rest of year?). At this point, Dunn is worth $15-18 million. A top 10 prospect like Montero is worth a boatload more than Adam Dunn.
The Nats should give Dunn what he wants; its Jason Bay money. Dunn is way more valuable than Bay. If the Nats trade him, the team will take a big step backwards and they are going to anger the fans that they should be trying to keep. They charge New York prices, so they shouldn’t run the team like its in Kansas City.
“They charge New York prices, so they shouldn’t run the team like it’s in Kansas City.”
Your ideas are intriguing to me and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter …
I’d like to introduce you to WAR.
Bay:
2005: 5.6
2006: 5.4
2007: 0.7
2008: 2.9
2009: 5.0
Dunn
2005: 3.3
2006: 1.9
2007: 3.1
2008: 1.0
2009: 1.2
Totals for the 5 years prior to Bay’s contract: Bay 19.6 // Dunn 10.5. Bay was worth roughly twice as much as Dunn. This largely due to Dunn’s horrible defense. Still, Bay was a vastly superior player during this 5 year stretch. Now, in 2010 roles have reversed with Dunn being outstanding and Bay being a disappointment. However, that is not nearly enough justification for suggesting that Dunn deserves a Bay type contract (which, quite frankly, Bay didn’t deserve to begin with).
As for the Nats taking a step back if they moved him … how is that possible? Back to back years as the worst team in baseball. They are in the bottom 25% this year. There are some nice pieces going forward but the team is nowhere close to being a playoff contender.
Dunn’s years as an outfielder in Cincinnati totally screwed whatever value he brought with the bat.
Did I read that the Nats wanted Garza in return for Dunn?
Yawn … I’m kind of over the whole Dunn trade market. I still think he ends up signing a 3-year extension for about $40M – which is his best bet unless he wants to end up DHing which he says he doesn’t.
Come join us on the other threads where we talk about what the Nats could get for Matt Capps – and fantasize about getting rid of Cristian Guzman!
When did Marion Barry become GM of the Nats? Only someone On crack would ask for Matt Garza in a trade for a DH! Btw, Dunn will never get 4/60 either! 3/36 max cuz of his inability to field!
a rental of Dunn and theyre asking for Matt Garza? Im dying here laughing.
As long as Peavy’s on the dl and garcia’s ours number 4 starter tradding for Dunn would cost the Sox in the long run. At seasons end and in the future. I dont think the White Sox will make the playoffs if they have to downgrade even further at 5th starter and the farm doesnt have enough fire to trade for a decent pitcher and Dunn. It’s been put out that they might go to a 4 man rotation in September but that still leaves all of August.
I would have to agree. Hudson and prospects for Dunn….who is the 5th starter for the Sox then? I would have to imagine the Sox will be looking to add a 5th starter to bolster the rotation. Any suggestions out there? I think the Sox would be willing to take on payroll for someone who is available for the future (possibly taking Freddie’s spot in ’11, or filling the void until Peavy is back in ’11).
The word on Chicago sports radio is that the White Sox are actually considering a starter if Hudson’s next start goes as badly as his last one. This would be a smart move; if they get someone like Lilly for the 5th spot, for a set of minor leaguers (not Hudson, whom they should continue to develop for next year). We simply do not need offense, we need quality starts. This is how we got back into the race from 9.5 games down, this is how we crawled into first place while Detroit and Minny imploded, and this is how we will stay in first place. I don’t want Dunn on the WS, period. I don’t want Fielder, period.
Jeremy Guthrie?
I disagree. If the WSox have done anything consistently in the last decade, it’s to evaluate and develop pitchers. No one is missing Gio Gonzalez, Clayton Richard, Aaron Poreda, or Brandon McCarthy. If they feel Hudson’s ceiling is limited, it’s a solid trade. This should scare the Yanks:Pierre LFRios CFDunn DHKonerko 1BQuentin RFPierzynski CRamirez SSBeckham 2BViciedo/Vizquel/Teahen 3B
“No one is missing Gio Gonzalez, Clayton Richard, Aaron Poreda, or Brandon McCarthy.”
Because all four of these guys are supremely inferior to Freddy Garcia and thus couldn’t help the White Sox in 2010 at all. Riiiggghhttt.
you’ve never heard of cost-benefit analysis, have you?
Heyward to center, Dunn in left. This would definitely put the Braves over the top.
Hahaha, you mean on top of the list of worst defensive outfields right?
Hahaha… no. Dunn played in the OF most of his career and it’s not a big stretch to move from left to center. He’s an all star he can do it. It wouldn’t be a great outfield but it could work. Anyway, I said over the top which implies getting over a hump, not on top of a list.
You are joking, right? Sometimes it’s hard to tell on the internet.
In case you aren’t … you must be out of your mind. Dunn was arguably the worst defensive player in baseball when he patrolled the outfield. His defense this year “appears” to be better according to UZR but that could be all sorts of things (sample size primarily).
Dunn is just an awful defender in the OF. The thought of him manning center is just absurd. Might as well stick him behind the plate or plant him at SS if you are willing to forgo any defense.
Not really that I necessarily support the logic behind moving Dunn back to the outfield, I’m not sure I read the same thing you did. How I read his suggestion is that the Braves acquire Dunn, move him to a corner outfield spot (currently played by Jason Heyward) and move Heyward to CF.
Either way, both moves would certainly hurt the Braves defensively.
It seems to me that the Nats have 2 valid options to make for a better team – they can either trade every viable older asset for younger players and prospects or they can keep everyone (most are signed through next year) and try to make a big splash in free agency. Sadly for Nats fans I think Rizzo is going to toe the middle ground and keep most of the veterans while not making a splash in free agency next year which, to me, is being content with mediocrity.
Plan 1: Work out a deal with Dunn (or, preferably, replace him with the similar but less defensively inept Pena; keep Willingham and Capps as they are still under team control; make a big offer to Crawford; make a legit offer to Lilly; gamble on an injury guy or two (Duchscherer, Harden, Sheets, Bedard, etc). If things break right and Zimmermann and Detwiler recover from their injuries the team might be a legitimate contender for a wild card.
Plan 2: Trade everyone that has any value and won’t be under team control in 2012.
A. Move Dunn, ideally to Chicago who perhaps can be finagled to give up a Luke Hudson and Dayan Viciedo tandem considering the struggles of those two at the big league level this year. Perhaps a deal with San Francisco centering around the struggling Zach Wheeler would be workable.
B. Even if the Nats have to eat money, try to move the last year of Guzman, Harris, and Kennedy for SOMETHING – even if it’s an incredibly raw low level player or two, it never hurts to gamble on finding someone that can help the organization.
C. See if there are any takers on Livan Hernandez.
D. Try to move Ivan Rodriguez if there are any takers (though I struggle to image who would be interested).
E. Trade Capps to whoever will pay the most for him – I think deal of David Bromback and Joe Benson from Minnesota would be a palatable exchange for both teams.
F. Move Willingham to the highest bidder as well – I’m less sure on what would be a great fit here. Boston has plenty of talent and could use him; same with San Diego.
This will COMPLETELY blow up the team for this year – no question about it. However, the fans will still come out to see Strasburg and in very small quantities otherwise. I think the attendance hit for this year will be worth the potential long term benefit. It gives the team a chance to give Mike Morse, Justin Maxwell and Alberto Gonzalez a shot to see if they can be legitimate contributors with consistent playing time. Detwiler is back, Zimmermann will be soon. But this current team is not going to be a legitimate competitor in 2011 even if the relevant free agents are brought back and a few moves made. Gambling on a bunch of prospects that will range from legit (the returns for Dunn, Willingham and Capps) to lottery tickets (anyone else) gives the Nats a better chance to be competitive in the long run – possibly in 2012 or 2013 when the team’s talent core of Strasburg, Zimmerman, Zimmermann, Harper and Storen are all still under team control. They need to have the guts to stay the course (like the Rays did) and embrace being truly awful this year (and next year) to try to build a winner down the line.
Somebody much smarter than I am made the observation that something like Plan 2 means that Ryan Zimmerman leaves the team at the end of his current contract. That would be a colossal failure on the team’s part.
I think you’re right that Rizzo is leaning toward Plan 1 – and the recent signing of the Cuban pitcher Maya tells me they’re gearing up to make some noise in free agency next year. I’m just wildly optimistic enough to think that the team’s marginally improved record might help them come out on top in a battle for the likes of Crawford or even a Roy Oswalt.
But a fire sale would be absolutely devastating.
Zimmerman is signed through 2013 so if they can build a legitimately competitive team by that time (which I think is certainly possible) with Plan 2 then that shouldn’t be an issue. I think Zim is FAR more likely to leave at the end of his contract if the Nats continue to be a 75-80 win team over the next three seasons than if they go something like 60 wins in ’11, 80 wins in ’12 and 90 wins in ’13 which seems possible with the help of a firesale. Without a firesale and a MASSIVE free binge, I can’t imagine any way they become better than a .500 team by 2013…
I think as a fan I would rather deal with a 100 loss season knowing there is a plan than to keep treading water as a 75 win team.
As for Yuneski Maya (or however you spell his first name, I feel like I’ve seen it about 5 different ways), I think it’s difficult to see him as a real solution until we see how he matches up and performs against big league hitters. I was also under the impression that having Livan, and coming to some sort of deal with El Duque that was announced (though I don’t think he’s actually pitched…?), helped seal the deal with Maya.
We’ve already had two 100-loss seasons; don’t think we can stomach any more.
Who do you think we are, Pittsburgh? 🙂
Hahaha, fair enough. But at least there is hope now with Strasburg, Zim, Zim, Storen and Harper – the sort of hope those other 100 loss teams never had.
Also, despite what ever nonsense Jerry DiPoto wants to spout about having a winning atmosphere when he tries to justify the awful Haren trade, those TB players, like Pena, Crawford, Shields and Upton, who had to suffer through AWFUL seasons (96 losses in ’07) sure came out of it ok when the talent finally blossomed. They went from 96 losses in ’07 to the World Series in ’08 and are a powerhouse now. I think that’s the model the Nats need to follow…
pirates have only had 2 100+ loss seasons since 1985(including 85′).
i just looked this up and was somewhat shocked, for their career, the pirates have a winning record (9517-9294)
Dunn for Wheeler? SOLD! Giants have plenty of pitching locked up and would be very dangerous with Dunn in the lineup.
BWOzar – your first paragraph captures their situation perfectly. They have two distinct paths before them, and with good talent evaluation, either can lead to a successful outcome, but the middle ground is death. They will not be substantially better than they are now, and they will not improve their intermediate chances. As for me, I would choose the first path, since Strasburg is a special talent right now, and I would look to maximize the teams chances for the full length of his six years here.
There’s a significant part of me that likes a lot of what you’re saying. I do think that the middle ground can be worked, though. The goal is, should be, and should always have been to build the team for 2012. Zimm’s contract is up in 2013, and if the Nats haven’t shown that they can build a contender around him (and Strasburg… and possibly Harper, whose ETA I’d set around late 2012 or early 2013), there’s not a single Nats fan (myself included) that would really have any basis for blaming him if he left. Putting butts in the seats does have its benefits, for sure, but it’s more important for the club to get a few pieces back who are more likely to be contributors in 2012.
That said, I’ll go down your list for Option 2:
A) If they can talk the White Sox out of Viciedo and Hudson for Dunn, Rizzo’s probably a fool if he doesn’t take it. I don’t see Viciedo as a monstrous upgrade over the three players mentioned as possible complements to Hudson in the article (Tyler Flowers, Jordan Danks, Brett Morel), but I do believe that he’s the most likely to develop the power that they’d need out of a potential first baseman.
Flowers won’t stick behind the plate, and I don’t think he’s as good a prospect as Derek Norris anyway…. Not sure he has the bat to play 1b, and he’d be a bit of a wreck defensively learning the position.
– Danks is obviously a corner outfielder, and that’s where he’d stick. His prospect status has certainly taken a hit this year (as has Flowers). He’s toolsy, but at 24, he’s shown nothing in the upper levels…. sub .700 OPS in half a season at AA last year, and a sub .700 OPS in AAA this year. His patience is subpar, and his contact rate is atrocious.
– Morel looks like he may have the biggest impact in the majors of the three, but as a Joe Randa type 3b. Again, I question the power and whether it would play at 1b. He’s a little big to be a guy who could move to 2b. He’s obviously not supplanting Zimmerman at 3b anytime soon.
– Viciedo’s a natural 3b himself, but has shown that he has enough power to mitigate a move across the diamond to first. That’s where most long-term projections seem to set his eventual position anyway.
B) This step is exactly right. Rizzo’s background is in scouting and player development. Teams have needs for 2b and utility men, and Guzman, Harris, and Kennedy certainly wouldn’t cost an arm OR a leg, much less both. Rizzo’s scouting background should give him a leg up on having a shot at finding a nice sleeper in the low minors (crossing fingers).
– They’d have to eat money with Guzman, but someone could bite even based on his (overrated) batting average and his FORMER reputation as a solid fielder. If they can’t trade him, they’re stuck with him through the rest of the year.
– Depending upon what they get back in trades, I don’t view Kennedy as the worst stopgap at 2b, ideally platooning with Alberto Gonzalez until a replacement is ready (Danny Espinosa?). His option for next year is high for a utility/platoon type, but it would actually be pretty cheap for a starter.
– Harris supposedly has suitors, which means that he should be on the next plane out of Washington. If they can get anything (be it a bag of baseballs or a 25-year-old underachiever in A Ball), they should deal him immediately. If they’re unable to move him before the deadline, they should probably DFA him…. all he’s doing is keeping the kids who figure to contribute to the team down the road from getting experience.
C) Couldn’t agree more. First off, he’s outperforming his peripherals by a very healthy margin. Yes…. opposing scouts and GMs are smarter than they once were, but someone is bound to overpay for him. Even if overpaying for him wouldn’t necessarily mean it would be a great haul, they’d still probably overpay.
D) Disagree with this one. Pudge is gone after next season, true. There are a couple of simple facts that say that holding onto Pudge makes sense, though.
1) The young pitching staff (and even with some trades, such as a possible acquisition of a guy like Dan Hudson, the rotation will be built around youth). Having a future HOFer to throw to (with a strong defensive reputation) is beneficial to both their confidence AND to their development mentally. He’s useful in helping them develop gameplans and approaches to situations. Could this role be filled by someone else? Possibly, but the deal that they have him signed for is far from exorbitant, and I don’t think that they’d get much for him in trade anyway.
2) The expiration of his contract coincides pretty closely with when the Nats expect Norris to reach the majors. He’s a stopgap in his own right… there are good stopgaps and bad ones. I don’t like Pudge’s bat much at this point, and I often hate the words “veteran presence.” However, in this case, I think it means something.
3) The 300 pound gorilla in the room, Jesus Flores…. It’s probably time to give up on him ever getting/staying healthy. Pudge was signed to platoon with Flores. Who knows?
E) It depends on what the market would bare. A veteran closer on a losing team is nothing more than a luxury, and his role could be filled adequately by Clippard (short term) or Storen (long term). Capps has one remaining year of arbitration, which could make him more attractive this year at the deadline than next. Generally speaking, teams trading for lesser teams’ closers at this point in the year are looking for them to be setup men, and won’t pay too handsomely for them. However, if the Nats can find a taker that will spend for an All Star closer (albeit, one who probably shouldn’t have been an All Star) accordingly, by all means, they should take advantage of it. If they can’t, they can go through this game with him next year and give Storen a little more experience in the big leagues while working him slowly into the closer’s role.
F) Based solely on the year and a half that he’d be under club control (final year of arbitration), the Hammer could likely net about as much as Dunn. His skills don’t necessarily figure to age well, and locking him up beyond next season could well be a mistake. Dealing him wouldn’t be a horrible idea. As with the case of Capps above, they can’t sell him short, though. If they get an above market deal, move him. If not, hold him.
I’d offer another possible suggestion to the mix as well, involving Nyjer Morgan. Morgan could be attractive to a buying team because he’s still got three years of club control. Morgan is what he is… overly aggressive and a tad overrated defensively; Mediocre with his discipline at best, which is not suitable for the leadoff role that they continue to use him in; A slap hitting CF who has a grand total of 17 extra base hits this season; Incredibly fast, but that’s something he counters with incredibly poor baserunning instincts.
The shiny SB total (which comes with 13 CS), the occasional highlight reel grab, and the fact that he’s hit leadoff (albeit, not particularly well) in the past as well as the club control could give him a higher price on the open market than what he truly deserves. Truth be told, Roger Bernadina is just as solid with the glove, is a natural CF, and provides better offensive production across the board. Yeah… it creates a hole in a corner OF spot, but a far more replaceable one.
First on Viciedo, I don’t know if a big body guy listed at 5’11”, 240 is someone you want to bank on a having a good 3B’s body down the line – that sounds like someone destined to move to 1B someday.
I complete agree on Morgan, but I wonder if they’d be selling low on him now. He’s had a truly awful year this year and has shown at least the potential to be something more than he has shown this year, plus he’s the type of player that doesn’t necessarily do well in the arbitration process so it should keep him relatively affordable.
I see what you’re saying on making sure to get good value for Willingham and Capps, but what is their actual value…? I mean are Nats fans actually buying tickets to see those two next year (Capps in particular as Storen is a better pitcher right now, arguably Clippard too). I think the Nats get back a lot less value for 2 months of Capps next year than the corresponding improvement to the team by keeping. Plus, if he has a big take in arbitration (who knows what it’ll be but it could be close to 7 mil), then he becomes a poor choice to offer arbitration to if he gets Type A which further diminishes his value. Plus this is considered a bad market for relief pitching talent – who else is really out there? Downs? Farnworth? A few rumors about Soria – though he is more of a special case.
I can see a little more reason to keep Willingham – they’ll need some offense next year, but I still don’t think he’s someone who will be a part of the team when they can compete for a championship…
– Viciedo’s a natural 3b himself, but has shown that he has enough power to mitigate a move across the diamond to first. That’s where most long-term projections seem to set his eventual position anyway.
Isn’t a move across the diamond to first base pretty much what I was suggesting anyway? The assumption is that they have Ryan Zimmerman manning 3b through 2013 (at least).
Quick thing on the Pudge point, I don’t subscribe to any of those ‘veteran influence’ cliches that aren’t supported by facts. I’ve seen all those cliches applied to Wil Nieves too. Plus, Pudge has had a reputation for many years of calling fastball, when he shouldn’t, if he thinks a runner a might be going to help his caught stealing percentage. Not sure if I buy that anymore than ‘veteran influence’ cliches, and I haven’t seen any real statistical analysis on it either way, but Pudge’s rep can cut both ways.
I think this is the highest his value will ever be again…
I don’t happen to think his value is particularly high on the open market, though I’d agree that it’s only going to go downhill from here. Again, not usually in favor of the “veteran influence” cliche myself, but with a pitching staff that figures to be as inexperienced as the Nats will be moving forward for the next couple of seasons, I just happen to feel that their benefits from his experience will outweigh both his contributions at the plate and his trade value.
Bring the big old country boy back to Texas the Rangers would love him.We could trade Rich Harden,Scot Feldman,Kasey Kiker and Chris Davis for him that is 2 starters and a future 1b in Davis.
That’s a bizarre but interesting trade proposal. First of all Harden is on the DL and can’t be dealt while that’s the case (he also wouldn’t have much interest to the Nats, I imagine and the Rangers may as well keep him because when he’s on he’s good). Feldman has been pretty awful this year and his peripherals suggest there isn’t a ton of hope on the horizon. But a Davis/Kiker pair seems like an interesting and legitimate offer for Dunn – if I’m Rizzo I’m happy with a Davis/Kiker/Feldman haul.
I don’t think anyone will give up a King’s Ransom for Dunn for 2 months. If the Nats aren’t going to resign him, just be reasonable and trade him.
What’s the point in keeping him for 2 months. They aren’t going anywhere.
Why be reasonable? Make it clear what you want from each of the six teams that are interested. If you don’t get the dream offer, see what’s on the table at the deadline.
Why are the yankees interested again?
To be their DH I guess. SS-Jeter,RF-Swisher,1B-Teixeira,3B-A-rod,2B-Cano,DH-Dunn,C-Posada,CF-Granderson,LF-Gardner.
Because this is sporting news, the Yankees are always interested in a player that’s good.
Wow, those turkeys really are asking for too much. I just thought….Well, Hudson and Danks or Flowers, no way, dude. No way..
There’s nothing saying the White Sox would be getting only two months from Dunn. I believe they have money coming off the books. I’d say the Sox have the best fit to deal for a potential rental though. None of the players supposedly available are top drawer talents.
As a Sox fan, I say pull the trigger. Theyhave a bunch of off days where they could push back the 5th starter where that spot will get 9 or so starts the second half. Carlos Torress could fill that role. I’m not sold on him. I’m just saying the 5th starter is expendable. The key is Big Game Freddy. Can we expect him to continue pitching like he did the first half? If we get Dunn, we’ll have to out slug people which we could be capable of doing.
I agree. While I hate to give up young talent, you aren’t going to get Dunn for nothing. While losing Hudson may put pressure on Freddy and the bullpen, having a slugger to generate more runs for these guys will help a lot. If they pull the trigger on this, I would think Kenny has another move in mind for a number 4 or 5 starter, anyway.I’m fine with Hudson plus Danks or Flowers for Dunn. (I liked Morel a lot based on what I saw in spring training.) It’s a big gamble but why not put the petal to the metal now?
I would probably do Hudson + Danks for Dunn, but only if Kenny can get a 5th starter on the cheap as well.
any chance of substituting say Sergio Santos and Carlos Tores for Hudson? or is kenny looking for a #5 in another trade???
Any chance the Tigers could get Willingham instead of Dunn? Just read this on thenatsblog:
//The asking price for the Hammer is lower and while the slugger is putting up great numbers this year (.273/.401/.479) the outfielder has one more year of control on him, meaning he will be more than a two-month rental.//
what is up with the high price tag on dunn? asking for garza and then beckham, are you kidding me. dunn is just not worth that much.
Dunn is worth whatever the market will bare. I never envisioned that the Nats would get Beckham, and the fact that Rizzo asked for Garza amuses me a bit (and I’m a Nats fan)…. though I’ve thought from the get-go that the Rays were always the ideal trading partner for the Nats.
We won’t see how Rizzo’s play works out until Saturday (or perhaps later, if they don’t trade him…. failing to trade him would be a bust unless they re-sign him, as the likelihood is that any 2-3 prospects they were to get back for Dunn are worth more [and faster] than the draft picks they’d receive as compensation). However, I have to say that it seems to have worked well to this point.
Why? Competition. The best way to drive the price up on a particular item (or in this case, player) is to create as much demand as possible. By not caving early on some of the offers that he’s supposedly gotten from (primarily) the White Sox, Rizzo has waited out teams coming to grips with their need for him.
– The Tigers losing Magglio Ordonez puts him more in demand.
– The Rays realizing that a power bat to DH over Joyce/Aybar would probably be a good idea if they have hopes of winning it all.
– The Rangers moved several of their better prospects (including their top 1b prospect/MLB starter at the time), and they’re coming to grips with the fact that Chris Davis truly does appear to be a AAAA player
– The Giants clearly had a need for him from the start, but have hung in the race long enough so that they’re more likely to increase their pursuit
– The Yankees seem interested enough in replacing one former Nationals 1b (Nick Johnson) with another
And so on, and so forth. In the past few weeks, it almost seemed as if Kenny Williams was bidding against himself and Mike Rizzo was making demands that seemed a bit outlandish to bide his time. If the market remained dry and Dunn wasn’t getting many inquiries, there would have been a decent chance that (if Rizzo was bluffing, which I hope we never know) Rizzo could have sold a little short on Dunn at the deadline simply because he felt he had to move him for something. With more than half a dozen teams supposedly in the fold now, that should only increase the asking price…. create a bidding war!
So… Is Adam Dunn worth five years of Gordon Beckham? Is he worth two years of Matt Garza? In reality, probably not. But if that’s what the market were to bare, then that’s exactly what he’d be worth.
Good work Rizzo. Now get the best deal possible for him!
With him prefering to stay in the N.L. I think that really limits his options. So far the only teams to show interest are S.F. & Colorado. I’m not sure if Atlanta has, but it would make sense if they did. Honestly, I could see S.F. & ATL battling it out for the right to trade for him. If ATL were to get him, they’d run away & hid with the N.L. East, & S.F. would probably take control of the wild card. Believe me, if its the Giants, combine Dunn with their rotation. They’d be scary, come october.
And this affects Rizzo how? Dunn would prefer to stay in the NL. He’s made that abundantly clear. He is NOT a 10/5 player. He does NOT have any no trade clause in his contract. With all due respect to Adam Dunn, who cares if he prefers to stay in the National League?
I’m a fan of Dunn, and I’m sure that Rizzo likes Dunn quite a bit, but nothing about this situation says that Dunn’s preferences determine where Dunn goes at the trade deadline (assuming he goes anywhere).
Dunn, a paid professional making $12 million this season and playing for a contract in which he supposedly wants $60 million over 4 years, wouldn’t exactly help his reputation heading into free agency if he goes in the tank because he’s whining about being a DH. Plus, while he prefers not to DH, imagine this brief one way conversation with Brian Cashman, Andrew Friedman, or Kenny Williams:
GM: Hey Adam. We’re about to acquire you, but we’re already kind of set defensively at your positions. You’d become our DH, and I know that’s not really what you want to do. Still, you’ll be in the lineup every day, and we’d love for you to come here and help us WIN THE WORLD SERIES.
Ah, good point. I was unaware that he does not have a no trade clause. I mearly stated his preference to stay in the N.L. However, should Rizzo wanna deal with Chicago, how will Dunns attitude be towards switching leagues which he is adamantly opposed to.
I don’t understand people complaining about this. Everyone says Adam Dunn is not worth what they are asking for and get mad when the Nats asked for Garza or Beckham but you know what?, the trade is not just about who gets Dunn. There is nothing wrong with a team selling to ask for the biggest value in return for a guy. You have to prove to your fan base that trading one of your team’s favorite players is worth the prospects you get in return. It goes both ways. Besides, most of the time these “rumors” for guys are just thrown out there with the hope that other teams will bid higher – that is what makes you a good GM.
Look at the Mariners. They kept the Yankees in the talks with other teams, throwing out the rumors like Montero and such hoping that other teams would get nervous and bid higher and Texas, after initially saying no, ended up giving up Smoak. I think the Nats are doing what they are supposed to be doing. If the White Sox and Rays think that Garza and Beckham are “too much” for Dunn, then move on. They don’t have to get Dunn. Rizzo and company are doing exactly what they are supposed to be doing and if no one bites, then they will concede and sell Dunn for less. Either way, a deal will still get done. Right now, they are just feeling out the market.
I would have to say that a trade of Hudson+Danks would be just fine with me. You can’t touch the big club meaning no Viciedo or Beckham. I still think you can go get a pitcher. I say trade Morel+Lillibridge+Linebrink for a Jake Westbrook type of pitcher would be alright. I think the time is to play for now. They are shellacking the Mariners as we speak and they need to go for it all the way.
The Rockies don’t like his defense???…Why would you want to trade for Dunn in the 1st place?…..1 guess…HIS BAT! Come on..don’t give me that crap.
White Sox will find a way to get this done. Even with Peavy done, they still have a great 1-2-3 punch in Danks, Floyd, Buehrle. Hudson and Morel/Viciedo should get it Dunn. Couldn’t resist