Cliff Lee starts tonight at Yankee stadium, and it figures to be one of his last outings in a Mariners uniform. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports leads his column with an examination of the market for Lee, noting that "the acquisition cost should be lower than the last two times he was traded." Rosenthal sees no obvious favorite for the lefty at this time, though Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times believes "the buzz about a possible deal with the crosstown Mets is growing louder and louder." Rosenthal's other rumorage:
- The Nationals have until Thursday to decide whether to promote Mike MacDougal. Otherwise, he can elect free agency. The hard-throwing righty has a 4.71 ERA, 5.6 K/9, and 4.7 BB/9 in 21 minor league innings.
- Rosenthal confirms other reports that the White Sox and Angels like Nationals slugger Adam Dunn. He notes that Dunn "does not want to become a DH."
- One executive feels that Jose Guillen will continue to hit well with the contract year carrot dangling. Yesterday we learned from ESPN's Buster Olney that the Royals are pushing hard to move Guillen and will eat much of the $6.3MM remaining on his contract. As for David DeJesus, an exec told Rosenthal the Royals "want to hit a home run" in any trade.
- The Giants seek stability in their left-handed relief crew (currently Jeremy Affeldt and Dan Runzler), but the need could be addressed internally.
- The Cardinals "likely will wait until at least the All-Star break to fully assess their needs." The starting pitching situation will depend on the recoveries of Brad Penny and Kyle Lohse.
- At another link, Rosenthal updates the Bobby Valentine-Marlins situation.
“As for David DeJesus, an exec told Rosenthal the Royals “want to hit a home run” in any trade.”
Does this mean that the sale of Babe Ruth to the Yankees would be a “sacrifice bunt?”
More like a looking strike out with the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth inning in Game 7 of the World Series.
More like a looking strike out with the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth inning in Game 7 of the World Series.
“The acquisition cost should be lower than the last two times he was traded.”
If it’s lower than those two trades, I’d rather just put a first or second round pick and a sandwich round pick in Jack Z’s hands.
it should be lower than those two trades because no one needs a lefty like him…oh wait. it must be because they should just give him away out of the goodness of their hearts. that must be it.
Just to play devils advocate, whats changed since the last 2 times he was traded? He’s gotten older, and less time remaining on his contract. That’s it. If those two trades were market value for him 11 and 6 months ago respectively, why would he be worth more now?
My point is that those two packages were lousy, and I’d rather have the draft picks than something lower, especially in the hands of Jack Z.
My point is that those two packages were lousy, and I’d rather have the draft picks than something lower, especially in the hands of Jack Z.
Not sure if serious. You aren’t really playing devil’s advocate, you’re just elaborating on what Rosenthal’s opinion must be based on. But the commenter you’re responding to is pointing out that Rosenthal is wrong & dumb not for what he’s basing it on, but what he forgot to base it on: demand.I mean, I dunno what to tell you. Do you think demand is static? Stays the same across different teams, different races, different years?
There’s always a demand for ace-quality pitching. It’s not like nobody needed an Ace pitcher 6 months ago, or last year, lets be real.
…Yep, demand always exists. I asked you: is demand static? Does it stay the same across different teams, difference races, different years?I’ll help. No, it doesn’t. And if there’s greater demand, there may be a greater price. That’s why Rosenthal’s dumb.
What evidence do you have to suggest that the demand is any higher now then it was 6 months ago or a year ago?
I don’t see any reason to think that’s the case.
Welp. Namely, there’s the fact that the prospect packages currently in discussion are better than the ones Lee was previously exchanged for. Which is the source of this post and this discussion.
Now, you may well be proven right come July 31st if Lee is traded for an equivalent or lesser package. That will indicate that demand was not higher.
But right now, it doesn’t look that way. And we certainly can’t say with any confidence (and so Rosenthal shouldn’t have) that it will turn out that way, given what we know about fluctuating demand.
….and you don’t think the Mariners are putting out many of these “better” packages to the media in hopes of ripping some team off? It’s smart buisness on their part to do so.
In fact, I would argue the demand, by default, has to be lower then it was 6 months ago considering that you can basically eliminate all non-contenders from the discussion now, whereas during the offseason, some 22-25 teams probably felt they could compete that season (even if their views were misguided). The list of interested teams has likely been cut by at least 1/3 already.
and you don’t think the Mariners are putting out many of these “better” packages to the media in hopes of ripping some team off?It doesn’t really matter if this is the case. Demand will be measured by whatever deal gets done whether the Mariners talked them into it or not.I would argue the demand, by default, has to be lower then it was 6 months ago considering that you can basically eliminate all non-contenders from the discussion now, whereas during the offseason, some 22-25 teams probably felt they could compete that season (even if their views were misguided). The list of interested teams has likely been cut by at least 1/3 already.The numbers there are correct, but that’s only one dimension of demand. There may be 25 of us who want the one available pizza right now, but since none of us are that hungry at the moment, the maximum any of us will pay is $15 (it’s a sweet pizza). Tomorrow, assuming all but five of us have eaten, the five remaining — despite only being a small fraction of the total potential buyers yesterday — may easily bid the pizza up to 25 or $30.I think you get the point. Quantifying demand can be difficult because we can’t know for sure how highly each group values its dollars (prospects) or the opportunity to win now.
Jack Z seems unlikely to prefer a package as poor as those others over two high draft picks. Money was also more of a motivating factor in those trades than it would be in this one.
…Yep, demand always exists. I asked you: is demand static? Does it stay the same across different teams, difference races, different years?I’ll help. No, it doesn’t. And if there’s greater demand, there may be a greater price. That’s why Rosenthal’s dumb.
You seem to be forgetting that Roy Halladay was on the trade market 6 months ago, AND the Phillies didn’t shop Lee around after they decided they wanted to trade him, they seemed to have just taken the first package offered.
As for the trade deadline last year, again I point to Halladay being on the block and teams focusing on trying to trade for him, plus Lee wasn’t pitching this well last season, and the Indians were trying to unload more salary.
There’s always a demand for ace-quality pitching. It’s not like nobody needed an Ace pitcher 6 months ago, or last year, lets be real.
Not sure if serious. You aren’t really playing devil’s advocate, you’re just elaborating on what Rosenthal’s opinion must be based on. But the commenter you’re responding to is pointing out that Rosenthal is wrong & dumb not for what he’s basing it on, but what he forgot to base it on: demand.I mean, I dunno what to tell you. Do you think demand is static? Stays the same across different teams, different races, different years?
what’s changed? that’s a pretty open-ended question seeing that lots has changed. this isn’t the exact same situation as the other two, and the fact that he has gotten older does’n negate the fact that he’s one of the best pitchers in baseball right now. the teams who would get him would be getting him to perform right now. the m’s aren’t complete morons here. they got him for pretty much nothing, and if all they can get in return is a bunch of throw away players, they’re better off letting him walk and take their chances with the draft.
what they get for him isn’t based on what they got for him before, it’s based on what value the other teams sees in acquiring him. and seeing that there’s a lot of teams that could use him, there’s pretty good odds they’ll get something decent in return for him–which i don’t see how that equates to him being worth less. we have yet to see jack z mention anything about the possible suitors getting a chance to sign him before the trade. not that it will happen, but if it did, it would really raise his value. so i think it’s a little pre-mature to assume that he can be acquired for less.
“what they get for him isn’t based on what they got for him before, it’s based on what value the other teams sees in acquiring him. “And what better way to evaluate how other teams see him, then you know, the prices other teams were willing to pay to acquire him in trades twice in the past year? He’s already been shopped around, his market value has already been established, twice in the past year. And he’s only gotten closer to Free Agency since then. Believe it or not, 16 starts (and decreasing the longer you wait) of Lee isn’t necessarily all that valuable a commodity your trading here, not when your asking teams to give up 6 years of controllable prospects.
And what better way to evaluate how other teams see him, then you know, the prices other teams were willing to pay to acquire him in trades twice in the past year? What? That’s a horrible way to do it. Those were different teams with different needs in different races at different times.The way you evaluate it is by: – Projecting Lee’s second half performance for your club- Determining how valuable that performance is likely to be to the team (playoffs, WS)- Determining the exchange value of those potential outcomes (playoffs, WS) in terms of prospects- Determining the potential values of your prospects and what combination of them most closely matches the value of Lee’s second-half performance (plus two draft picks)After that, sure, you size up the Mariners needs, their requests, and other teams current needs & potential competing offers. But what other teams previously traded for him has almost nothing to do with it. He has no objective value across every team in every context; it varies.
You’re ignoring the possibility that Jack Z might be a better GM than the other two who traded Lee, or perhaps has less impetus to trade him.
Totally agree. Everything he touched this past year has turned to gold … oh wait. He got fleeced by Hendry (wow). Figgins has been a bust. Didn’t see the need for 1st base or DH. Overall Jack Z’s had one of the WORST off-seasons in baseball.Now, he might not be a bad GM but when are people going to realize that he is just another guy who will make some very smart moves (bringing in Lee) and some seriously stupid ones (bringing in Bradley).You won’t get more for Lee today than what was given up in the past. So far, the serious teams are the Mets … and the Mets (OK – the Twins have been rumored a few times). And the last rumor had them holding onto their most valuable trade piece.
Joel Pineiro worth that 8 million?
Is Brandon Wood “mashing” like everyone thought he would.
Oh yeah, and Kendry Morales had his leg fall off… celebrating a walk off homerun. The last one isn’t your gm’s fault, but I thought I’d mention it cause it’s funny.
Pineiro has a 3.88 FIP right now. He’ll be worth $8 M by the season’s end I guess.
Brandon Wood’s WAR – (-0.7)
Chone Figgin’s WAR – (-0.1)
So if someone is gonna suck, at least the Angels have the cheaper one. Really though, its quite sad that their catcher turned 1st baseman right now is as good of a hitter as your own.
Mike Napoli’s wOBA -(.356)
Russel Branyan’s wOBA (1B) – (.355)
Mike Sweeney’s wOBA (DH) – (.355)
Hahahahahah! You’re funny dude. Martin Gramatica thinks you’re funny too. And careful celebrating the Angels’ possible future playoff appearance. I heard it hurts when you’re leg falls off.
Hahahahahah! You’re funny dude. Martin Gramatica thinks you’re funny too. And careful celebrating the Angels’ possible future playoff appearance. I heard it hurts when you’re leg falls off.
You can definitely get more for Lee than they gave up. You know one easy way? Take the draft picks. I would definitely rather have those two picks in Jack Z’s hands than either package that was traded for Lee in the past year.
Also, I’m not saying he’s a great GM. But he’s made some very savvy trades, and I think Amaro felt unnecessarily compelled to trade Lee for stupid reasons, and think Shapiro felt compelled to trade him for reasons of money and rebuilding the Indians sooner. The Mariners seem unlikely to do either unless a trade is worth it.
“what they get for him isn’t based on what they got for him before, it’s based on what value the other teams sees in acquiring him. “And what better way to evaluate how other teams see him, then you know, the prices other teams were willing to pay to acquire him in trades twice in the past year? He’s already been shopped around, his market value has already been established, twice in the past year. And he’s only gotten closer to Free Agency since then. Believe it or not, 16 starts (and decreasing the longer you wait) of Lee isn’t necessarily all that valuable a commodity your trading here, not when your asking teams to give up 6 years of controllable prospects.
what’s changed? that’s a pretty open-ended question seeing that lots has changed. this isn’t the exact same situation as the other two, and the fact that he has gotten older does’n negate the fact that he’s one of the best pitchers in baseball right now. the teams who would get him would be getting him to perform right now. the m’s aren’t complete morons here. they got him for pretty much nothing, and if all they can get in return is a bunch of throw away players, they’re better off letting him walk and take their chances with the draft.
what they get for him isn’t based on what they got for him before, it’s based on what value the other teams sees in acquiring him. and seeing that there’s a lot of teams that could use him, there’s pretty good odds they’ll get something decent in return for him–which i don’t see how that equates to him being worth less. we have yet to see jack z mention anything about the possible suitors getting a chance to sign him before the trade. not that it will happen, but if it did, it would really raise his value. so i think it’s a little pre-mature to assume that he can be acquired for less.
I would rather give up anyone in our farm system than lose Angel Pagan. I don’t think scouts have ever really given him a close enough look and I think his ceiling has yet to be reached. he’s 28, hasn’t played a full season yet and has a patheticly low salary.
Thole/Martinez/Evans/Holt/ we’ll even throw in Tatis as major league tested bat.
That offer won’t do it if none of those players are ones that Seattle wants back. The Mariners will insist on one or two players they must have from the Mets, Twins or anyone else in the hunt. The team that coughs up the one or two must have players will get Cliff Lee. If the Mets insist that their top tier prospects are not available, they will not get Cliff Lee by offering second tier prospects if the Twins or someone else are ponying up one or two first tier prospects. I have no idea – and neither does anyone else on this board – how the Mariners regard prospects from other teams and which ones they will accept back in trade for Cliff Lee. The amusing thing is that Mets fans try to convince themselves that other teams place great value on Mets prospects and will greatfully take whoever the Mets fans want to give them. No doubt that Mariner evaluators have been looking hard at Twins, Mets, and other interested teams prospects over the past several weeks. I am pretty certain that the Mariners evaluators don’t believe that the Mets propects are presumed “superior” just because they come from the Mets.
As an aside, Tatis is not and will never be that “throw in” that gets a deal done for Cliff Lee.
There is a lot wrong with this post. For one, it is quite laughable that, in one breath, you suggest you would be willing to lose anyone in your farm system (I presume you mean in a trade for Lee), and in the next breath conveniently forget to mention your top two prospects, Flores and Mejia, that the M’s are sure to covet in any deal for Lee. As for Pagan, he’ll be 29 this week, he is injury prone, and I am leery of any player that has a career minor league OPS of .715 and has exceeded that number by a full .100 points over the past two seasons. While he has performed well for the past two seasons in the bigs, if he is what it takes to get Lee to Flushing this summer, you pull the trigger. Especially since Beltran is due back in a couple weeks.
“we’ll even throw in Tatis as major league tested bat.”
That made me chuckle out loud. How kind of you to throw in a washed up “35” year old with a healthy .559 OPS.
first off flores is years away from the bigs and mejia is injured, and from what I read from the Seattle times Z is high on Pagan and why shouldn’t they be, maybe what you read on paper doesn’t blow your hair back but anyone with a clue about his potential sees that his career numbers don’t do him justice. as far as Tatis goes a team as as offensively challenged as the Mariners would bennefit from our bat boys in the line up.
Before the season, BA listed Flores’ MLB ETA as mid-2012, only 2 years from now. Mejia is on the 7 day DL with a very minor injury, so nice try, there. They are both top prospects and obviously what Z will be looking for. I would think twice before you start ranting about “anyone with a clue” because “anyone with a clue” about player development knows that a player almost always reaches your aforementioned potential by age 29…and certainly isn’t going to get significantly better. Baseball-reference names such luminaries as Fred Lewis, David Dellucci and Timo Perez as players having comparable statistics to Pagan. Not exactly any world-beaters in that group and those were three most prominent names. Not to mention that Pagan’s value lies in him playing CF, and in case you missed it, the M’s just signed theirs to a 4 year extension this offseason.
as far as Pagan goes, I think he is the exception that proves the rule, even you yourself say ALMOST always; there are particulars to his case which brings me to my conclusion. But if the number crunchers don’t feel he fits their rubric for above average player thats fine with me, we’ll hang on to him in all his mediocrity. as I said about flores, “year(s) away” I think 2 dictates plural; not exactly a “major league ready prospect” the Mariners are apparently looking for. If we are going to live and die by BA rankings why not go for Martinez who was 1st last year and 2nd this year? better yet, just go right down the list and take three any excluding Davis, Niese, tejada, and Mejia. personally I feel we have some talent outside of our top 40 that are superior to the names on there but what do I know. The Mariners are over playing their hand here, well, the fans on here anyway, the demand is not what everyone makes it out to be, would anyone want Lee? Sure, there are very few in the position to mortgage their future for a few months of the guy. Lee is in blue and orange in about 10 days and we will keep Mejia, mark my words.
Martinez is frequently injured or unproductive, Thole has a limited kill set that many don’t like, Evans is a non-prospect, and Holt has been an unmitigated disaster this year, when many only saw him as a reliever in the first place. So while I think you vastly overrate Pagan, it’s an easier argument if you don’t mention Flores, Mejia, or Havens.
I would rather give up anyone in our farm system than lose Angel Pagan. I don’t think scouts have ever really given him a close enough look and I think his ceiling has yet to be reached. he’s 28, hasn’t played a full season yet and has a patheticly low salary.
Thole/Martinez/Evans/Holt/ we’ll even throw in Tatis as major league tested bat.
the giants should go after dunn. he doesn’t want to be a DH and he can hit the home runs we need hit and he takes a lot of pressure on the rest of the lineup.
the giants should go after dunn. he doesn’t want to be a DH and he can hit the home runs we need hit and he takes a lot of pressure on the rest of the lineup.
Is Posey struggling that badly? Bringing in Dunn at this point is basically admitting to failure one either Posey or Molina right depending on whether they sit Posey or move him to C.
my thought were to move posey behind the plate full time. molina is doing horrible. i would like to either let molina go or try and find a team that will take him in a trade.
my thought were to move posey behind the plate full time. molina is doing horrible. i would like to either let molina go or try and find a team that will take him in a trade.
As a Braves fan; with Heyward hitting the DL, McLouth still gone, and the rest of the outfield sitution somewhat shaky; not to mention the Braves history of dealing with the Royals, I’m worried the Braves could be a landing spot for Guillen or DeJesus. Eep.
As a Braves fan; with Heyward hitting the DL, McLouth still gone, and the rest of the outfield sitution somewhat shaky; not to mention the Braves history of dealing with the Royals, I’m worried the Braves could be a landing spot for Guillen or DeJesus. Eep.
Worried? DeJesus for the right price could be just what the doctor ordered. Power, speed, high OBP, adequate defense and a team-friendly option for next year – sign me up. And don’t worry, Dayton isn’t gonna fleece anyone – he can dream abt Teheran/Freeman all the way to the deadline, but the most he’s getting from us is Melky and a middle-tier pitching prospect (Hoover/DeVall)…
Since when did DeJesus had power ? He has a career .139 ISO. That and Melky sucks.
Worried? DeJesus for the right price could be just what the doctor ordered. Power, speed, high OBP, adequate defense and a team-friendly option for next year – sign me up. And don’t worry, Dayton isn’t gonna fleece anyone – he can dream abt Teheran/Freeman all the way to the deadline, but the most he’s getting from us is Melky and a middle-tier pitching prospect (Hoover/DeVall)…
Why would the Giants need more lefties? All the Giants fans said Affeldt is the best set up man in baseball..
have you ever heard of a team saying, “no thanks! we have enough lefties.” i’m still waiting to hear it too.
have you ever heard of a team saying, “no thanks! we have enough lefties.” i’m still waiting to hear it too.
Why would the Giants need more lefties? All the Giants fans said Affeldt is the best set up man in baseball..
HA dunn does not want to DH….someone has an ego and actually thinks he is good in the field…dont get me wrong his D at 1st has gotten alot better, but its still not that great…Dunn is nothing more than a DH who could spell the firstbasemen or left fielder a few times a month…his ego is why he didnt sign in the AL because he knows thats how he would be used and DH’s get paid alot less then position players….I dont know how he would fare in the AL he has never played there and probably wants to not DH because he knows its harder to hit in the AL then the NL…and does Dunn really have a choice, if an AL team gets him he will more than likely DH and he can really say no…if he does you know the team that gets him would go after some of the money…its time for him to realize he is a left handed hitting DH and could make his career alot longer if he accepts that he will DH for the rest of his career.
Please enlighten me as to why it’s harder to hit in the AL vs. the NL.
now there is no proof obviously but every analyst that i have heard always says guys who hit in the NL have a hard time hitting in the AL and guys who hit in the AL always rake in the NL, that would make it seam that hitting in the AL is harder…look at juan pierre a career NL hitter is struggling in the AL…..and pat burrel killed it in the NL, moved to the AL to dh and sucked then goes back to the NL with the giants and is raking again
Juan Pierre’s BABIP is 45 points below his career norm, and Pat has had all of 70 plate appearances, so I wouldn’t call it a come back just yet, although I do admit he looks a lot better with the Giants then he ever did with the Rays. But did you ever consider that it might have something to do with playing the field? The guy had never been a full time DH before and was used to the routine of being in the OF, with the Rays he was sitting on the bench for 80% of the game, big difference. And even if these 2 trends continue that still proves absolutely nothing, and there isn’t any conclusive evidence to suggest that hitting in the AL is any more difficult than hitting in the NL. Now pitching on the other hand…
the only way dunn makes alot of money is if he stays with washington and they sign him to some crazy contract but teams are getting smarter with their money..if they dont work an extension and he hits the open market he will not get huge offers form NL teams…he will get decent offers from AL teams but as a DH/part time 1st, LF type guy…he wont see a huge contract ever again teams are starting to notice he strikes out way too much, does not really hit for an average(although this year is a career high in terms of average) and he does not walk all that much either, this screams #5 or #6 hitting DH
the only way dunn makes alot of money is if he stays with washington and they sign him to some crazy contract but teams are getting smarter with their money..if they dont work an extension and he hits the open market he will not get huge offers form NL teams…he will get decent offers from AL teams but as a DH/part time 1st, LF type guy…he wont see a huge contract ever again teams are starting to notice he strikes out way too much, does not really hit for an average(although this year is a career high in terms of average) and he does not walk all that much either, this screams #5 or #6 hitting DH
Dunn’s defense is brutal, even at 1st base. I’m sure there’s a stat that says he’s improved but watch the games, its awful.
Dunn’s defense is brutal, even at 1st base. I’m sure there’s a stat that says he’s improved but watch the games, its awful.
Dunn can play LF for the sox… he may be slower, but his arm HAS to be better than Pierre’s noodle arm.
pierre has a 1.000 fielding % right now leading the league in that i would rather him there and ozzie to tell dunn to suck it up and DH
This is what my dad and brother and I have been dreaming of. Adam Dunn to DH with that left handed power and occasionally play first and left. He also played a bit of right for Arizona so Im not totally opposed to him playing that position. This is exactly what the White Sox needed like yesterday. I say give up Tyler Flowers, Scott Linebrink, John Shelby and some cash. If they will allow for an open window for an extension signing then possibly thow in Daniel Hudson and no cash.
I don’t see how the Nationals are interested in cash for Dunn. They want and need prospects to keep them competitive with other teams in their division like the Braves that have strength in their upper minors.
Hitting a Home Run with a trade means he wants teams to overpay…
Dejesus career numbers shouldn’t lead to an overpay. It’s not like he’s a game changer.