Assorted links about baseball's most popular 17-year-old, Bryce Harper…
- Harper tops Keith Law's updated list of the top 100 prospects in this year's draft (ESPN insider link). Manny Machado, Jameson Taillon and Drew Pomeranz aren't far behind.
- MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo explains that few hitters after Harper are considered safe bets this year.
- Harper's advisor Scott Boras told SI's Tom Verducci, "No baseball person in his right mind will have the guy catch." Baseball America's Jim Callis sees the Nationals moving Harper to a corner outfield position, allowing him to reach the Majors in September of 2012 at the earliest. Also in that piece, Callis compares Pomeranz to other recent college lefties.
- Yahoo's Tim Brown wonders what it's like to be Harper.
- Joe Posnanski cautions that unlike Stephen Strasburg, Harper is a long way from being big-league ready. A lot can go wrong in that time.
You know, Joe has a point. When you think about big young prospects and how much they change. I remember when Dunn was known for his speed. Then he grew some more.
I like Joe Posnanski’s article. Well written (though still some typos) and it shows just how Harper type prospects have been seen before and just haven’t panned out. Plus the scout’s analysis is something people don’t expect to hear and haven’t heard of, though 3-4 years in the minors wouldn’t be unfounded. And he also isn’t the first guy to bring up Harper’s long swing, though other scouts said it could give him trouble hitting a major league fastball rather than a breaking ball.
My concern is how the Nationals will handle him, based on pressure from media/fans/if the team is in playoff hunt. Do they put him right in AA after being in JUCO? If he’s hot for the first month does everyone flip out and move him to AAA? If he’s bad for the first week do they demote him? Etc.
They showed how careful they were by starting Strasburg in AA when he could have easily pulled a Mike Leake and started in the majors right away. I wouldn’t be too afraid of it.
Joe’s article was really well written. Cautionary tales are important, as is historical perspective. Of course, you could have written the EXACT SAME article last year with Strausburg. The draft is littered with “polished” and “MLB Ready” college pitchers who absolutely tanked or severely under-performed. Can’t miss pitching prospects miss just as often as positional players.The moral of the story is that the draft is inherently risky. You can minimize risk through proper scouting but this is still a very imperfect science. Harper, like Gordon, represent the best choice available. The fact that Gordon didn’t pan out like Zimmerman does not mean that the Royals made the wrong choice. Rather, factors that were unknown to anyone at the time of the draft have colluded against the Royals to make this pick look bad. It’s not a failure on the part of the Royals draft strategy. It is simply an acknowledgement that player progression rarely follows scout projections or statistical models.
How soon can Harper be traded? It’d be interesting to see what kind of package his beloved Yankees would give the Nats for him.
seeing if he signs, the soonest he can be traded is the trade deadline of 2011.
One year after being drafted is the rule, though technically he could be a player to be named later a few months before that, just without changing hands until the year mark. The Yankees don’t really have good pieces to get him though.
Advisor my butt! Boras is such a phony jerk. You know you’re his agent.
Why is it not against the rules for BH to have obvious contact with an agent, like it is for CFB & CBB players?
Why should it be
A few years ago there was a lawsuit won by an Oklahoma State pitcher, Oliver Odle, I believe, who had been declared ineligible by the NCAA for having an “advisor”….I believe the courts declared that it infringed his personal freedoms.
It’s all in the name anyway. I was in that Oklahoma State clubhouse during the mid-90s and agents called frequently…right to the baseball offices. I spoke to Dennis Gilbert one occasion myself.
interesting point
What? Whether you like it or not, the guy is the best at what he does. Boras 1, you none.
Rev, I concur, Why should it be?
Lose the jealousy j…
It’s kind of like my theory on law. Why make laws that are unenforceable. These “advisers” have existed since there was money to be had in the amatuer draft. Who wouldn’t want representation when maybe $15 mil is on the line? Any other person would be entitled to as much.
Can the Nationals legally negotiate with a minor?
“Can the Nationals legally negotiate with a minor?”
It’s not the first time a prospect under 18 has signed (domestically or internationally) so it’s safe to say they use the proper legal process.
“Can the Nationals legally negotiate with a minor?”
It’s not the first time a prospect under 18 has signed (domestically or internationally) so it’s safe to say they use the proper legal process.
CadeMan, the real issue isn’t that Harper is going to be paid a lot of money while hes still a teenager. The issue is that he’ll be offered millions of dollars before he’s actually done anything. For players drafted directly out of amateur baseball to be able to demand the sort of money Boras demands for his clients is simply absurd. Sure, the kid will have a financially sound future, but for the owners of ballclubs it’s a terrible business practice to have to sign unproven talent to massive contracts. I’m not going to complain about wealthier teams signing free agents for huge contracts, but if a team is struggling simply to sign the high draft picks its supposedly getting in compensation for losing big name players to free agency the system is completely ridiculous.
This is the real problem that agents like Scott Boras are perpetuating: they’re gentrifying baseball to the point where players make so much that the only way for teams to compensate is to either not spend any money on trying to win and field a crappy team that no one wants to watch or raise the cost of tickets, merchandise, etc. so much that the average fan can’t afford to go to games. If all of a sudden you have to pay draft picks insane amounts of money, it becomes a lot harder to accumulate the fan base you’re going to need to sustain a winning team, since you’re unable to make the team accessible to fans while the young talent is still coming up.
You’re right that Harper needs to go to the next level and face better competition ASAP. However, he and everyone else should also understand that most people don’t get paid a lot of money until they’ve proven they’re worth the investment. He should have to sign a minor league deal for a few hundred thousand and work his way up to a big pay day like everyone else. Maybe that will motivate him to become the superstar everyone expects him to be and not just sit on a career’s worth of cash while floundering around apathetically in the minor leagues.
I would much rather see the Pirates and Royals sink a few million into a top draft pick than the mediocre free agents they typically have available to them in the offseason.
I could really care less what a player gets paid. What I do care about is being priced out of the ballparks. Whatever it takes to get me and my boys into a major league game at a fair price is what needs to happen. I’m curious how the “QQ” ticketing system is working for the Giants. I saw that they had $15 outfield seats in July against the Marlins. That’s $10 less than the Royals. What gets me is that teams have plenty of empty seats on any given night. Wouldn’t it be better to have them filled at $15 than empty at $25?
I would much rather see the Pirates and Royals sink a few million into a top draft pick than the mediocre free agents they typically have available to them in the offseason.
I could really care less what a player gets paid. What I do care about is being priced out of the ballparks. Whatever it takes to get me and my boys into a major league game at a fair price is what needs to happen. I’m curious how the “QQ” ticketing system is working for the Giants. I saw that they had $15 outfield seats in July against the Marlins. That’s $10 less than the Royals. What gets me is that teams have plenty of empty seats on any given night. Wouldn’t it be better to have them filled at $15 than empty at $25?
The very successful teams have excellent rounds 5-15 in the draft. Anyone can scout a Strasburg or Harper. That first round is typically a lock anyway..The Nats are almost obligated to pick Harper. Watch a team like Colorado who typically drafts well through the draft.
Albert Pujols played HS ball a stones throw from Kauffman Stadium. The Royals had 5 rounds to take him before the Cards got him. The risk involved in Bryce Harper is staggering. I’m not sure why a team would take on that burden. There can’t possibly be that much of a gap intalent between him and other 1st rounders.
Not defending the Royals but Pujols was also not in great shape in HS and even in college. He was round and had no position. So HOF wasn’t stamped on his face.
I hear you on Pujols. But it also proves the point about phenoms. How many “Can’t Miss” guys were taken ahead of him? He did nothing but mash from day one.
As a side note….I coached against Pujols when he was with the semipro Hays Larks. He was a great player and we knew he was a prospect, but I can’t even say that he was the best player in that league. The LaRoche Brothers and I believe Nate Robertson were around the Jayhawk and Walter Johnson League at that time
Not defending the Royals but Pujols was also not in great shape in HS and even in college. He was round and had no position. So HOF wasn’t stamped on his face.
The very successful teams have excellent rounds 5-15 in the draft. Anyone can scout a Strasburg or Harper. That first round is typically a lock anyway..The Nats are almost obligated to pick Harper. Watch a team like Colorado who typically drafts well through the draft.
Albert Pujols played HS ball a stones throw from Kauffman Stadium. The Royals had 5 rounds to take him before the Cards got him. The risk involved in Bryce Harper is staggering. I’m not sure why a team would take on that burden. There can’t possibly be that much of a gap intalent between him and other 1st rounders.
mal, aren’t we signing FA’s for previous achievements in hopes that those achievements will continue to occur? Also, yes the bonuses have increased, but the reality is, it’s an investment. They lock the kids in for 5-6 maturing years at a discount rate. See Tim Lincecum. We, this board, as a whole have no clear insight or reasoning to not allow this young man to be drafted. Bottom line: he is good enough at age 17 to go number 1. Let him go.
Yes, technically you’re right, and I’m not a big fan of that either, but at least players have to put up good numbers at the Major League level in order to get those big contracts, so it could just as easily be considered a reward for good performance. I think anyone would agree that giving a multimillion dollar contract to a proven star in the prime of his career is a much better investment than paying that money to a teenager with superstar potential who is yet to face Major League pitching… and Cory, while I’m in the same boat as you in the sense that I just want to be able to afford to go to the ballpark, I don’t see how ticket prices can stay reasonable if Major League salaries continue to inflate. If the MLB really doesn’t want to have a salary cap, owners are just going to have to be more frugal with contracts, and with teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, etc. around I doubt we’ll see that happen.
Mal, that’s why in the big scheme of things like average annual salary (I think 3.7m for MLB player), a draft pick does not make MLB level money. Only elite level draft picks make that kind of money. They still have to prove themselves. I said earlier, see Tim Lincecum. Back to Back CY Young winner. 2/23m is cheap for that kind of return on ticket sales and marketing and the Giants know it. Arbitration allows them to plea their case for an increase in salary at a “less than seasoned” level. The system is not perfect, but if you are truly the best talent available, you should be entitiled to a paycheck that accounts for that?
Owners know all of this, and they still “invest”.
mal, aren’t we signing FA’s for previous achievements in hopes that those achievements will continue to occur? Also, yes the bonuses have increased, but the reality is, it’s an investment. They lock the kids in for 5-6 maturing years at a discount rate. See Tim Lincecum. We, this board, as a whole have no clear insight or reasoning to not allow this young man to be drafted. Bottom line: he is good enough at age 17 to go number 1. Let him go.