There's been plenty of talk about the Reds becoming sellers later this year, potentially shedding the salaries of Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, and Francisco Cordero. However, at 17-15, this team is firmly in contention. The problem is that their runs scored and allowed totals suggest a below-.500 team, a club that should finish with 74 wins or so. To remain in the playoff hunt, the Reds need to play better.
With 4.66 runs scored per game this year, the Reds rank in the middle of the NL. If they're able to maintain that production, they'd probably finish around sixth in the runs scored rankings. Improvements might come from within, as more is expected from Brandon Phillips, Orlando Cabrera, Drew Stubbs, and Jonny Gomes. My speculation: potential outfield bats the Reds could pursue include Scott Podsednik, Andruw Jones, David DeJesus, and Ryan Church. The ability to play center field would be beneficial.
The Reds' starting pitching has been terrible, with a 5.31 ERA. Only Mike Leake has an ERA under 5.00. Again, improvements should come from within, with Harang, Arroyo, Johnny Cueto, and Homer Bailey capable of better things. Aroldis Chapman doesn't appear ready given a 5.1 BB/9 in Triple A. One interesting rental idea if the Diamondbacks continue to stumble: Brandon Webb. He's talked about playing closer to his Kentucky home, so Cincinnati would be perfect.
The Reds' bullpen has technically struggled, though much of the ERA damage came from low-leverage pitchers Logan Ondrusek and Carlos Fisher. Despite spotty control, Nick Masset's 14.6 K/9 and .511 BABIP suggest he'll round back into setup man form.
Like most teams, the Reds have a few areas for improvement. However, their likeliest path to the playoffs involves veterans simply meeting expectations.
a true leadoff hitter would be nice
If Webb proves himself to be healthy and his typical self I would be thrilled to see the Reds trade for and extend him. because of his high ground ball tendencies he’d be a fit for GABP and because of his desire to be close to home may give the Reds something of a discount as well. Add in the fact that Price was his pitching coach in Arizona.
I would also like to see the Reds target one of the displaced Texas catchers just so they have have a young catcher in the system till Mesaroco is ready.
dude mesaraco hasn’t gotten out of A ball in 4 years. He’s a bust.
Hope about Elijah Dukes………seems he just disappeared from the game of baseball??? The only bad mention that he had with the Nationals is that he wasn’t a happy-go-lucky person……what does that have to do with his skills? I think he would fit in great here or with any team in need of a strong outfielder. As long as he keeps his attitude in check, not get into any trouble (which he’s done well the last two years)…..why not? Let’s play ball!!!!
They should fire Dusty, addition by subtraction
Elijah Dukes would fit in perfectly here….or any team in need of a outfield bat. What has happened to him? With the nationals there were no problems other than the fact that he isn’t a happy-go-lucky type of person, but he showed his patience with the fans always. Especially the kids! Any team would benefit from having him and I’ve seen no mention of him since the beginning of April????
Elijah Dukes is bat—- insane. Probably not a super duper idear.
you kill me with you expert opinion. Are you a doctor or a baseball fan?? I thought so…
The problem with the names mentioned, Posednick, Dejesus, Church, they are ALL left handed sticks. We do need a lead off man even though Cabrera is doing okay… for now. We need a LF power stick that can hit for average, and Bullpen needs some work. I would still like to give up Harang/Bronson and prospects in exchange for a legit ace. I hope we are in playoff contention for once, Yonder is a useless chip for us right now. Trade him if we can.
If the Reds become buyers……….
I’ll eat my hat.
Please don’t pull a Wilfredo Ledezma on us.
A LF RH power hitter has been the biggest missing element for this team for 2-3 seasons now and Walt has yet to find anything close to what is needed. As for pitching, Harang has been very good over his last 3 starts after working through an adjustment period with his new mechanics. Looks to be back in pre 2008 form. Arroyo is what he is … a .500 pitcher who has the occasional 2 inning 10 run games. Cueto & Bailey are the ones that have not taken the next step. If they are still struggling come post all start break, Volquez should be ready by then to take one of their spots. At SS, Cabrera has been a nice upgrade offensively but his defense range is awful and has cost the Reds several outs already. Hopefully Cozart will be the answer to that position in the near future
Ctown you are dead wrong. The only example you cited that is legitimately “lucky” is the lack of injuries.
You said that they have been lucky that they have been playing team right after they have been hot? You mean playing a team coming in on a hot streak is lucky??? The Astros were on something like an 8 game winning streak when the reds went in and swept them. Take a look back over the last month. How many of the Reds opponents came into their series with the Reds on serious hot streaks? That is lucky? You talk about the warm weather heating up the opponents bats? Ummm I think that works both ways brother. You stated the home/road record. 2 over at home and .500 on the road. If that trend keeps up I will take that all year! That would equate to a nice little record at the end of the season. You list Rhodes stats and contribute that to luck? Seriously? Do you even try to read your posts before you hit submit? Thats damn good pitching not luck! You are trying so daggone hard to be negative but you are losing more and more ammo by the day. Give it up. Your act is tired. Go root for the Cubs where your negativity will fit in.
Not sure why people keep talking about the Reds as darkhorse contenders the last few years. Simply put, they’re not a very good team. Right now could be their high water mark for this season, in fact if they finish 2 over .500 this year it would likely be considered a successful season give recent history. Their run differential tells a better, more complete story of them as a team and at -20 they’d be fourth in the league and two games under .500. Should the Reds really expect to outperform their run differential for the rest of the season or should they expect their record to more accurately reflect that differential as the season goes on? Every year there are a few teams that are either lucky or unlucky and go in the opposite direction of their run differential, but generally speaking you are your run differential just like you are what you eat. The Reds are essentially a sub-.500 team that has gotten a bit lucky so far this year. If they go all out and start buying then maybe they finish above .500. Seems to me that the better idea would be for them to continue stockpiling young players and hope to contend for real in a year or two (or three). That said, if they are going to be buyers they really need to concentrate on pitching, specifically ground ball pitchers (that’s you, Mr. Webb, if you ever get healthy). With Dusty as manager and that staff leading the charge it’s hard to imagine them being in contention come September. I’m sure I won’t make any friends with Reds fans for pointing this out but year after year it’s pretty much the same thing for them, until they actually honest to God contend then the smart move is to bet against them.
Exactly!
Currently, there are 15 teams that have a negative Run Differential. Three of those teams have a winning record and 12 of those teams have a losing record.
The Reds are 17 and 15 and have a -20 Run Differential.
The Nationals are 18 and 14 and have a -16 RD.
The D-Backs are 14 and 19 and have a -25 RD.
The Mariners are 12 and 19 and have a -22 RD.
The White Sox are 13 and 19 and have a -24 RD.
For those who don’t think having a negative Run Differential over a season makes a difference, I refer you to these stats.
2005 – 15 teams had a negative RD. Two of those teams had a winning record that year, 12 had a losing record and one was .500.
2006 – 13 teams had a negative RD. One team had a winning record and 12 teams had a losing record.
2007 – 16 teams had a negative RD. Two teams had a winning record and 14 had a losing record.
2008 – 14 teams had a negative RD. One had a winning record and 13 had a losing record.
2009 – 15 teams had a negative RD. Two had a winning record and 13 had a losing record.
Again the Reds have NOT had any serious injuries to a starting position player or starting pitcher, the starting pitchers have been bad and haven’t had their “dead arm” period yet, the relief pitchers are getting overworked, the team has played 20 of their 32 Games against teams with losing records, they have played more Home Games than Road Games and are scoring about a Run more at Home than on the Road AND they have, so far, been outscored by the opposition.
So, for those drinking the Kool -Aid, go ask the Las Vegas odds makers what the Reds chances are from here on out on having a winning record and going to the Play Offs.
Yes, the offense might get a little better but the chances are even greater that the OPPOSING teams offenses improve more. When THAT happens, the Reds will NOT be winning these close Games.
8-4 in 1 run games and 4-0 in extra innings. That is the sign of a good baseball team. Not a lucky baseball team. You mention Mike Leake. Wait until the league finds out he doesn’t have a fastball that will blow them away? Tell that to Greg Maddux.
So the highlight of your season is a 7 game losing streak? I think that is enough right there to expose you as a hater. You just can’t stand success can you?
I’ll sit back and enjoy winning baseball!!!!
Go Reds!
Actually, a lot of one run and extra innings games aren’t a sign of a good team, blowouts are a sign of a good team. By then end of the season it’s more likely that the Reds will have played many more one run and extra inning games than say, the Yankees. Would that mean that the Reds are better than the Yankees? No.
And you’re comparing Leake to Maddux when he’s made less than 10 MLB starts? That is seriously foolish. You’ve drunk the Koolaid, we get it, but don’t pee on our legs and tell us it’s raining.
You’ve essentially taken a few characteristics of the Reds, drawn the wrong conclusions and started calling anyone who disagrees with you haters who can’t stand it when the Reds succeed. So I suppose that every baseball fan in the world who isn’t a fan of the Reds is a hater who desires to see the Reds fail more than anything. Hey, your team is two games over .500 after about 30 some odd games, they haven’t “shocked the world” yet. Any you know that if they’re still above .500 in a month Reds fans will be crawling out of the wood work with that “shock the world” cliche. Quite frankly the world doesn’t care much about the Reds and don’t care enough to be shocked by anything they do.
The Reds are 2nd in the Majors in Average with 2-outs and runners in scoring position, just below the Yankees. THAT is a sign of a good baseball team.
The Reds have all the tools in place, especially the minor league depth, to make a run at the NL Central pennant and Wild Card race. Youth is on their side, which is more than what can be said for teams like the Cards and Cubs who have huge contracts on their hands and will likely eat most of them due to lack of production (except for Pujols and Carpenter).
The Cubs bullpen “blowing games” is an excuse considering the fact that 90% of their players are under performing. I would say beating the Cubs 14-2 the other night, and then Johnny Cueto pitching a 1-hit shutout beating the Pirates 9-0 on Tuesday is enough indication that this team is a serious contender. If you think otherwise, you’re ignoring the facts.
This team has 6 starters that could drive in 70+ runs this season or more. 3 to 4 of which that are capable of putting 90+ runs or more across the plate.
Cubs fans are just angry they haven’t won a series in 100+ years and ctown is just ALWAYS angry…never optimistic. This team doesn’t have a $200+ million payroll like the Yankees. You can’t spend the money if the money isn’t there, and definitely not considering that the average game attendance is under 20,000.
Quit bitching…get to the games…and support your team.
High school catchers tend to take a while to develop. Mesaroco is actually hitting well this year and should be advanced likely before the break.
Mesarco was a bust, now he’s a top line prospect again. Look at his numbers so far this year, I think he’s got a 1.200 OPS, although I don’t have defensive stats, I hear is very good defensively behind the plate.
Brandon Webb would be a nice addition. Plus, he may even take a hometown discount for an extension. Look at this rotation for 2011:
Brandon Webb
Aroldis Chapman
Edinson Volquez
Mike Leake
Johnny Cueto
Homer Bailey
Outstanding!
Brandon Webb would be a nice addition. Plus, he may even take a hometown discount for an extension. Look at this rotation for 2011:
Brandon Webb
Aroldis Chapman
Edinson Volquez
Mike Leake
Johnny Cueto
Homer Bailey
Outstanding!
The world doesn’t care about the Reds? The Reds haven’t been dominant in 30 years so that’ll do that to an organization. However, the Reds are on the verge of being perennial contenders, with their minor leagues finally producing talent and having an amateur scouting director talented as Chris Buckley. Once the Reds are in the postseason again, their popularity will soar again and that just eats away at Cubs and Cards fans. The fact is the Dodgers only started making the postseason a few years ago after a decade of missing the playoffs, and their popularity dipped too. The fact is, outside of Los Angeles, no one cares about the Dodgers either.
The world doesn’t care about the Reds? The Reds haven’t been dominant in 30 years so that’ll do that to an organization. However, the Reds are on the verge of being perennial contenders, with their minor leagues finally producing talent and having an amateur scouting director talented as Chris Buckley. Once the Reds are in the postseason again, their popularity will soar again and that just eats away at Cubs and Cards fans. The fact is the Dodgers only started making the postseason a few years ago after a decade of missing the playoffs, and their popularity dipped too. The fact is, outside of Los Angeles, no one cares about the Dodgers either.
The fact that Cubs fans are reading and posting on Reds articles only proves their obsession with us.
The fact that Cubs fans are reading and posting on Reds articles only proves their obsession with us.
The Reds might be buyers in July, but they’ll have to unload some salary before they start purchasing contracts.