The Red Sox face four contractual options after the season:
- Designated hitter David Ortiz has a $12.5MM club option. This will be declined.
- Third baseman Adrian Beltre has a $5MM player option that increases to $10MM with 640 plate appearances. It'll be tough to reach that plate appearance benchmark, and if the option remains at $5MM it'll be an easier choice for Beltre to decline. He gets a $1MM buyout for reaching 575 PAs.
- Bill Hall has a $9.25MM club option with a $500K buyout. Doug Melvin signed Hall to this extension in February of '07. Here in 2010, Theo Epstein won't be considering the option.
- Reliever Scott Atchison has a $440K club option with a $10K buyout. He's currently with Pawtucket.
The Sox have four additional free agents: Mike Lowell, Victor Martinez, Jason Varitek, and Scott Schoeneweis. They earn a total of $23.2MM this year. Around $46MM will come off the books if everyone leaves. There are also a few decreases to consider – $2MM for Tim Wakefield if he fails to reach 130 innings, and $6.25MM for John Lackey assuming his signing bonus was paid up front. 2010 obligations to former players total $10.5MM (Julio Lugo, Billy Wagner, and Alex Gonzalez). If everyone leaves, and we add in the decreases and money to former players, the Red Sox free up around $64.75MM. I assume things look different for luxury tax purposes, but we're keeping it simple.
The Red Sox have five players under contract getting raises: Kevin Youkilis, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jon Lester, Dustin Pedroia, and Josh Beckett. Those raises total $10.525MM. Boston also has Jacoby Ellsbury going to arbitration for the first time, Hideki Okajima, Ramon Ramirez, Manny Delcarmen, and Boof Bonser in the second-time group, and Jonathan Papelbon and Jeremy Hermida as third-timers. We'll assume this results in $10MM worth of raises.
By my estimate, the Red Sox would have more than $40MM to work, holding payroll steady. It's more complicated than what I've done here, but they'll be able to address catcher, third base, and designated hitter without a big payroll increase.
Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for the info.
Could be even more off the books if they decide to trade Papelbon in the off-season.
I’m curious who they’d chose between Werth and Crawford…
I don’t see a Papelbon trade likely… not many teams are in the market for $10m closers nowadays, and that seems to be his inflated sense of self-worth. Does he end up in pinstripes as Mariano’s heir via free agency?
I also don’t see Theo cleaning out the farm system for Agonz.
I would think Crawford, but the Yanks will probably cause a bidding war a la Tiexiera.
Obviously nothing would surprise me with the Yanks. But I honestly don’t see them spending big bucks on LF. They are going to have to spend some time right away resigning Mo and Jeter. After that the only money they really have coming off is Vazquez and Pettitte. I see them going after a younger starter such as Cliff Lee or Webb (If he bounces back).
They won’t have nearly as much money to play around with as the Sox do.
I have just heard they are ga ga over Crawford. It makes me sick to think the Sox signed Lackey for pretty big money and I assume Lee wont cost that much more. Would have been perfect foil to Sabathia.
“I see them going after a younger starter such as Cliff Lee”
Cliff Lee turns 32 in August ya know.
to me, 32 sounds young for a yankee player, with all the huge contracts they’ve got going into player’s 40’s.
“They won’t have nearly as much money to play around with as the Sox do. ” What??? Dude, the Yankees regularly spend 50-75 million more on payroll than Boston does, and will have no problem shelling out even more. Their TV contract with the YES Network alone is around 300 million per season. Now, if you’re saying that because the Yankees will have to pony up to pay Jeter and Rivera, that they wont be able to spend more on a guy like Crawford, then you’re an idiot. Remember 2 years ago when NY was only after Sabathia? They ended up with Teixeira and Burnett as well! Don’t think that NY wont spend just as much as Boston next offseason on bringing in new talent, because they ALWAYS do.
“They won’t have nearly as much money to play around with as the Sox do. ” What??? Dude, the Yankees regularly spend 50-75 million more on payroll than Boston does, and will have no problem shelling out even more. Their TV contract with the YES Network alone is around 300 million per season. Now, if you’re saying that because the Yankees will have to pony up to pay Jeter and Rivera, that they wont be able to spend more on a guy like Crawford, then you’re an idiot. Remember 2 years ago when NY was only after Sabathia? They ended up with Teixeira and Burnett as well! Don’t think that NY wont spend just as much as Boston next offseason on bringing in new talent, because they ALWAYS do.
That’s because there are rarely one’s that are worth it.
Why not both? With $40M to spend and a lot of holes to fill. In any event, it would be a hoot to see Ellsbury and Crawford together driving opposing pitchers insane. Whoever is hitting behind them would get some great “mistake” pitches to pound.
Yeah, I would nearly faint with excitement if Crawford became a Red Sock. Those guys patrolling the outfield, with Drew for another year, and that would be monstrous. And if Adam Dunn came over to fill the DH slot…phew. This could get exciting.
Lots of ifs but If they trade papelbon and if they hadnt signed cameron then they could have went for both Crawford and Werth… alternate drew and martinez at dh and 1b, , move youk to third since beltre most likely declines his option, sign a cheap defensive catcher…damn too bad thats not gonna happen
Is the fact that they won’t be paying Lugo, Gonzalez and Wagner on there? That would be another 10 million.
I still see them trading for A-Gon before the break since the Padres are going to come back to earth and fall out of contention. That allows them to move Youk to 3rd for good.
V-Mart really doesn’t solve their catcher issue, but they could re-sign him as well as their DH/back up catcher, and sign a defensive catcher.
They’ll try, but other teams can offer as much for him in terms of prospects, if not more.
That money was already factored in. However why would Boston trade of A-Gone now when they are getting such great production for Beltre? I’m not arguing that A-Gone isn’t a better long term solution for 3rd base, but I’m saying why would we mess with the chemistry of this team that’s winning, which Beltre has been a HUGE part of?
Theo is not going to mortgage his future by giving San Diego a package that would have to include Clay Buccholtz and Casey Kelly for essentially a lateral move this year. Sure, if you can trade for A-Gone and sign him to a 5 year extension, it’s a long term solution to your 3rd base problem, but how does it impact our shot at the series this year? A-Gone is feasting on inferior pitching in the NL. How is he gonna do during a playoff run facing many pitchers for the first time in the AL? It’s hard for a hitter to adjust to pitchers he’s never seen in such a short amount of time.
I think A-Gone is someone the Sox will pursue in the offseason, however with San Diego playing so well, they may just keep him this year and roll the dice with a compensatory 1st round draft pick. Jed Hoyer, the San Diego GM, has already stated that if they stay in contention, there is absolutely no way they would trade Gonzalez because some teams only get one shot in a decade to win it all-and “we’re one of those teams. We don’t have the financial resources of some other teams like NY, Chicago, Boston and LA.”
That money was already factored in. However why would Boston trade of A-Gone now when they are getting such great production for Beltre? I’m not arguing that A-Gone isn’t a better long term solution for 3rd base, but I’m saying why would we mess with the chemistry of this team that’s winning, which Beltre has been a HUGE part of?
Theo is not going to mortgage his future by giving San Diego a package that would have to include Clay Buccholtz and Casey Kelly for essentially a lateral move this year. Sure, if you can trade for A-Gone and sign him to a 5 year extension, it’s a long term solution to your 3rd base problem, but how does it impact our shot at the series this year? A-Gone is feasting on inferior pitching in the NL. How is he gonna do during a playoff run facing many pitchers for the first time in the AL? It’s hard for a hitter to adjust to pitchers he’s never seen in such a short amount of time.
I think A-Gone is someone the Sox will pursue in the offseason, however with San Diego playing so well, they may just keep him this year and roll the dice with a compensatory 1st round draft pick. Jed Hoyer, the San Diego GM, has already stated that if they stay in contention, there is absolutely no way they would trade Gonzalez because some teams only get one shot in a decade to win it all-and “we’re one of those teams. We don’t have the financial resources of some other teams like NY, Chicago, Boston and LA.”
Don’t they have Lugo coming off the books too?
Yes, thanks…sometimes I miss those former player obligations. It’s updated now.
No problem, Tim. I’ve been an avid reader since the beginning of this site, so I got your back.
Not that it’s big money, but now Embree also falls into the “former players off the books” category. Last time I looked, Cots didn’t have a salary number for him.
it was just a minor league contract. Probably the 2 days he spent in the majors are inconsequential
Not sure his agent would agree.
well what I mean is- his major league salary was $500k without incentives- for two days in the majors that means he made just over $6,000, which i really inconsequential for the red sox payroll. Nice pay for two days of not working, but inconsequential for the Sox contract issues
My opinion:
Why would they move Papelbon? Finish the arbitration and take draft picks for him when the time comes. Bard would finally be ready to fill the role.
ANd honestly, if they have Ells in the lineup, how much does that shut down Crawford’s biggest asset? Speed. Either he or Ells will cut their sb’s signifcantly. How many 50+ sb players can you really have in a lineup? Just thinking out loud.
Ortiz: Bye.
Lowell: Bye
V-Mart: offer arbitration and bye.
Make a play for a big first baseman: Everyone says AGONZ, but why not Fielder? They will both cost the same amount and Fielder might actually be cheaper in trade. That will take up 22m of their open 40m. Then what? 14m on Crawford? Forget that, take Werth for shorter amount of years and more power.
That honestly makes more sense to me.
Re: 50+ steals
I’ll partially disagree with you — you can have a lot of 50+ SB guys in a lineup, it used to work very well for many teams. However, I’ll say that a roster like that doesn’t make sense for Fenway; it’s too small. Petco, Target, Rangers, Safeco, Busch, Chase and Turner lend themselves to speedy, defensive outfielders who can also go first-to-third (or home) on deep singles or doubles. May as well go for power if you’re playing 81 games in Boston (or Wrigley or Coors, among others.)
Good point, although I will add that for the speedy guy he is, Crawford also packs a decent punch. He can hit for power more than most guys his type, which is why he’s so appealing, and why the Yanks are drooling all over him. However, I do think Werth may end up being the better choice, although the Sox will probably end up at least making a bid for Crawford, if anything just to make sure the Yanks don’t steal him dirt cheap 😉 But, man…that would be really exciting to see Ells and Crawford in the same lineup. Would terrify opposing pitchers. Even in a smaller park, those guys would cause all kinds of havoc.
Absolutely. I should have said “…doesn’t make as much sense for Fenway.” Speed always disrupts the defense as long as you have a manager willing to use it. I’m in St. Louis and saw those fantastic running teams Whitey Herzog had in the ’80’s, and it’s a huge shock to see our franchise, HR-slugging 1B is also the team leader in steals.
Hmm, good point about Werth over Crawford. Also, this may just be wishful thinking on my part, but it would nice to have fewer years, in case some of these outfielders coming up in the system perform to their expectations. I’m thinking Reddick, maybe Fuentes, Westmoreland if he rebounds next year…
I think we can all agree that you basically get Jason Bay for slightly less than Jason Bay type money, with speed to go with it from Werth, right? So this to me, makes totally more sense than targeting Crawford.
well, personally I would agree with everything except the part about being slightly less than Jason Bay money. I think Werth will end up costing at least as much as Bay, maybe slightly more…especially since he’s probably headed to one of the big boys, ala Yanks or Sox. But yes, he would be a great fit. And Crawford will definitely be more than Jason Bay money, so not as appealing for the Sox.
well, personally I would agree with everything except the part about being slightly less than Jason Bay money. I think Werth will end up costing at least as much as Bay, maybe slightly more…especially since he’s probably headed to one of the big boys, ala Yanks or Sox. But yes, he would be a great fit. And Crawford will definitely be more than Jason Bay money, so not as appealing for the Sox.
Carlos Pena is also an available free agent after the season. Who would not cost any prospects, offers golf glove defense unlike Fielder and not nearly the same size contract.
Good point about Pena, but a .220-.240 avg is not highly appealing (to me) although GG defense sweetens the deal.
“why not Fielder?”
How long before that body starts breaking down? He’s a younger Ortiz with a huge price tag and “issues”. Do you really want that?
1st: Boston has the market to absorb a long term bad contract, even at Fielder’s 25m potential.
2nd: He fits their needs.
3rd: It doesn’t cost the farm in trade.
Although Ortiz is costing more than his value NOW, let’s not forget that he put 2 rings on the fingers of Boston fans. So, I think that this does in fact make a defense for his contract, both amount and length.
Again, we can all agree that Boston actually needs a big bat at first base = Fielder, Gonzo, Pena… any other ideas?
Could you specify what the “issues” are?
Well, the Ortiz thing is definitely the biggest risk with Fielder. Sure, Ortiz brought us two rings, but he’s handicapped the Red Sox in moves so far this year; the one thing they can really do to make things more flexible would be to release him, but I don’t know if Epstein has the balls to do that, honestly. And Fielder doesn’t exactly fill their needs; as a heavyset 1B who’s not known for his defense, he’s going to be a risk to be at DH in a couple of years, which would again handicap the Red Sox a bit. And sure, he’ll cost less in a trade, but if the Sox still have their eyes set on A-Gon, I actually think he’ll be cheaper for them. Think of this: if the Padres keep up their plus .500 play, they will be less and less likely to trade A-Gon. Then, in the offseason they are basically guaranteed to pick up the option. Then, we come to next year. If they keep playing well, they will simply be stuck with either extending him or letting him go via FA, which is a win for the Sox if he goes to FA, because we all know they’ll outbid anyone. Or, they regress next year, have a bad year, and trade him off. A trade for him next year, when the other team only gets half of a year of him guaranteed, will mean much less trade chips given up. Plus A-Gon is more appealing because of his defense, and all-around athleticism, as well as the stroke that was built for Fenway.
Plus, I wonder whether Boston really needs a big bat at first base. I think most of this is just built out of the fact that a bunch of first basemen will be available soon, and that A-Gon is clearly Epstein’s favorite player ever. Youkilis is one of the premier first basemen, even if he doesn’t have as much power. Getting one of these power 1Bs will basically be telling Youk he’s leaving, because its beginning to get to that part of his career where he really shouldn’t be switching to 3B anymore. I have a feeling that if things don’t work out with Gonzalez going to Boston, we could see Boston sticking with Youkilis at first, nabbing Werth or Crawford to boost the outfield, getting Adam Dunn (or similar player) to DH, and thus boosting the power potential in other slots than first base. I could also see the Sox extending Beltre if he really does hit his ceiling here in Fenway.
So let’s go with another scenario instead of Fielder or Agonz since each of those players will cost approximately 25m. As Maaac said, Pena is also available. So if Pena pulls about 12-14m (age), Dunn also pulls 12-14 (Dunn), and a guy like Werth pulls 14-16 or Crawford pulls approx 14-17 (more years though), then the BoSox lineup could potentially be replaced with a massive punch of power for a relatively short amount of years.
Dunn: 13 (avg)
Pena: 13 (avg)
Werth: 16 (avg)
= 39m
Fielder: 25 (avg)
Werth or Crawford: 16 (avg)
= 41m
Now these numbers are not perfect, but I am just making a point.
Let me know what you think.
A lineup with Ells, Pedroia, Youk, Scutaro, Cameron, Dunn, Pena, Werth/Crawford, Drew seems realistic. Not sure about catcher though…
my bad, 42m for the first scenario
my bad, 42m for the first scenario
So you think its possible for Youk to move to third again? I like your scenario, but it seems like a lot to ask Youkilis at this point in his career. Werth and Dunn I can definitely see coming to Boston though. Also, I think they would want to hold on to Youk and keep him at first base, which doesn’t lock up that position too much, and leaves the possibility of nabbing Fielder, or A-Gon, or heck, even Pujols if somehow he isn’t extended, in 2012. While Pena is a good player, I doubt Epstein likes him enough to get him and block himself from nabbing one of the big guys in the next offseason.
Man, catcher is a tricky spot now….I posted a possible lineup elsewhere in these comments, and couldn’t think of a catcher either. It’s a tough thing to figure out, and I think will be heavily influenced by things like Martinez’s continued durability throughout the year (although I seriously doubt he returns), Ibarra’s success here, etc. Maybe one of these average catching prospects we have impresses the heck out of the Sox this year and earns a spot next year, maybe they nab a short-term option knowing Ibarra (or another guy) will be ready in about a year, maybe they trade for a more long-term solution. Lots of options, and it’ll be interesting to see how that plays out.
So you think its possible for Youk to move to third again? I like your scenario, but it seems like a lot to ask Youkilis at this point in his career. Werth and Dunn I can definitely see coming to Boston though. Also, I think they would want to hold on to Youk and keep him at first base, which doesn’t lock up that position too much, and leaves the possibility of nabbing Fielder, or A-Gon, or heck, even Pujols if somehow he isn’t extended, in 2012. While Pena is a good player, I doubt Epstein likes him enough to get him and block himself from nabbing one of the big guys in the next offseason.
Man, catcher is a tricky spot now….I posted a possible lineup elsewhere in these comments, and couldn’t think of a catcher either. It’s a tough thing to figure out, and I think will be heavily influenced by things like Martinez’s continued durability throughout the year (although I seriously doubt he returns), Ibarra’s success here, etc. Maybe one of these average catching prospects we have impresses the heck out of the Sox this year and earns a spot next year, maybe they nab a short-term option knowing Ibarra (or another guy) will be ready in about a year, maybe they trade for a more long-term solution. Lots of options, and it’ll be interesting to see how that plays out.
So let’s go with another scenario instead of Fielder or Agonz since each of those players will cost approximately 25m. As Maaac said, Pena is also available. So if Pena pulls about 12-14m (age), Dunn also pulls 12-14 (Dunn), and a guy like Werth pulls 14-16 or Crawford pulls approx 14-17 (more years though), then the BoSox lineup could potentially be replaced with a massive punch of power for a relatively short amount of years.
Dunn: 13 (avg)
Pena: 13 (avg)
Werth: 16 (avg)
= 39m
Fielder: 25 (avg)
Werth or Crawford: 16 (avg)
= 41m
Now these numbers are not perfect, but I am just making a point.
Let me know what you think.
A lineup with Ells, Pedroia, Youk, Scutaro, Cameron, Dunn, Pena, Werth/Crawford, Drew seems realistic. Not sure about catcher though…
Well, the Ortiz thing is definitely the biggest risk with Fielder. Sure, Ortiz brought us two rings, but he’s handicapped the Red Sox in moves so far this year; the one thing they can really do to make things more flexible would be to release him, but I don’t know if Epstein has the balls to do that, honestly. And Fielder doesn’t exactly fill their needs; as a heavyset 1B who’s not known for his defense, he’s going to be a risk to be at DH in a couple of years, which would again handicap the Red Sox a bit. And sure, he’ll cost less in a trade, but if the Sox still have their eyes set on A-Gon, I actually think he’ll be cheaper for them. Think of this: if the Padres keep up their plus .500 play, they will be less and less likely to trade A-Gon. Then, in the offseason they are basically guaranteed to pick up the option. Then, we come to next year. If they keep playing well, they will simply be stuck with either extending him or letting him go via FA, which is a win for the Sox if he goes to FA, because we all know they’ll outbid anyone. Or, they regress next year, have a bad year, and trade him off. A trade for him next year, when the other team only gets half of a year of him guaranteed, will mean much less trade chips given up. Plus A-Gon is more appealing because of his defense, and all-around athleticism, as well as the stroke that was built for Fenway.
Plus, I wonder whether Boston really needs a big bat at first base. I think most of this is just built out of the fact that a bunch of first basemen will be available soon, and that A-Gon is clearly Epstein’s favorite player ever. Youkilis is one of the premier first basemen, even if he doesn’t have as much power. Getting one of these power 1Bs will basically be telling Youk he’s leaving, because its beginning to get to that part of his career where he really shouldn’t be switching to 3B anymore. I have a feeling that if things don’t work out with Gonzalez going to Boston, we could see Boston sticking with Youkilis at first, nabbing Werth or Crawford to boost the outfield, getting Adam Dunn (or similar player) to DH, and thus boosting the power potential in other slots than first base. I could also see the Sox extending Beltre if he really does hit his ceiling here in Fenway.
It’s been a couple weeks so I don’t know if anyone will even read this, but I’ve been wondering why there isn’t any talk of a trade for Miguel Cabrera? His peak year in terms of home runs isn’t quite as high as A-Gonz but he averages the same number per year, he hits for a WAY higher average than any of the other guys talked about, is a good defender, and is actually younger than A-Gonz. Just a thought but I was wondering what they chances would be and what it would take to land him?
Since 2007 Prince has recorded a higher WAR than A-Gon, so I don’t think he’ll be cheaper in trade. (And I know WAR is not the end all be all of stats) Plus the Brewers seem closer to being a playoff contender than the Padres.
With the money coming off the books AND the quality prospects at all levels, it’s hard to imagine the Sawx not acquiring one of Prince or AGonz. If I had to pick which, it would be Gonzalez. Don’t give me the crap abt Hoyer “knowing the truth about the Sox prospects” – he just wants more of them than Theo was willing to part with. A package of Bucholz + 2 of their top prospects (Reddick, Iglesias) will get it done. However, I think the only move they make this season (other than to jettison Lowell) will be for a real catcher…
Hate to break it to you, but it’s not a forgone conclusion that the Red Sox are trading for Adrian Gonzales. In fact, I think the potential of it happening is closer to zero.
The Red Sox do not have the prospects to make that deal. They would be forced to trade 2 out of Bard, Kelly and possibly Bucholtz to even start the negotiations. They won’t do that.
Theo cannot afford to pay twice for a player. He can’t surrender the farm and then give Gonzales 25 million a year for 8 years. That’s not how Boston works or how it has ever worked.
What Red Sox fans have to get used to is that Theo is going to wait out free agency for Gonzales and hope he makes it there.
I think he won’t make it there. Either the Mariners, White Sox, Braves or Rangers (if ownership gets settled soon) overwhelm SD with an offer or the Padres end up resigning him.
The Boston system is hardly as deep as Gammons and Law claim it is. Reddick is nothing. You lost two OF’ers and he couldn’t even stick and lost more trade value with his long swing. Lars Andersen is finally showing something, but means nothing to a team like SD who already has Blanks slated to play 1b if Gonzales leaves. Westmoreland is an obvious question mark and can’t be dealt. Tazawa is out. Ellsbury is injured and about to get expensive in his arb years. Bowden? He can’t even help the team in the pen.
What exactly is this package that SD is going to trade their best player for? Lowell and Ortiz? Give me a break. Get realistic. If Gonzales does hit the market teams will line up for him and they will offer way more than the Red Sox can.
Red Sox fans need to realize that the plan is to get money off the books and prepare for the better free agents to get free. Only problem with that is if Crawford is in their sights, they will lose him to the Yankees who also are targeting him.
As for Prince Fielder, he’s a beast and the Red Sox would be very lucky to get him…but something tells me that Theo will not want to deal with Boras on Fielder and that makes his acquisition highly unlikely.
I am definitely starting to agree with you on A-Gon. They would need to start by offering Bucholz, and since Westmoreland does not have much trade value since his brain surgery they probably don’t have enough to get it done and probably no incentive to in the first place.
They can pick up Beltre’s option and keep Youk at 1st. Focus on Crawford/Werth to add some pop to the lineup from LF, and then look to sign V-Mart as the DH / Back up 1B and C along with a defensive catcher who can actually throw to 2nd.
I’m just stunned that Boston fans talk about Adrian Gonzales like it’s a given they get him when he’s made available.
Why Jed Hoyer would risk his job as GM by trading to his old team is beyond me. The only way he can trade with Boston is if it appears to be a clear overpay by Boston and Boston doesn’t have the available prospects to make a clear overpay.
They have no positional prospects who mean anything to other GM’s unless you believe the hype on Iglesias which if it’s true, Boston can’t afford to trade him since they need a long term solution at SS.
The only way to get SD to the table is to trade Kelly, Bard and Bucholtz. Other teams who would trade for Gonzales if available have better prospects than Boston does. Boston has those 3 pitchers and they would have to give up 2 of them to get the ball rolling, although after that, the talent thins out considerably.
If you think Boston is going to give up their only other decent bullpen arm in Bard and Bucholtz (who is cheap rotation insurance against Lackey, Beckett, Lester injuries) you’re out of your mind.
I could see them give up Kelly who is as overhyped as any prospect who hasn’t proven anything yet, but after Kelly they don’t have the horses to get the deal done.
To make this trade they would be forced to trade other pieces from the big team to get prospects SD might want which in turn creates bigger holes. I’ve seen the popular thought of trading Papelbum for prospects SD wants. If they do that, they now have a huge hole in the pen plus whatever prospects they are forced to deal from their own thin system.
And on top of all the holes this trade creates, is the fact that you have to pay the guy a minimum of 25 million per year, probably more since he’s younger than Howard, which will eat up a ton of payroll and create roster inflexibility for a team that will need a starting catcher, DH, LF and bullpen makeover after this season.
If Theo pulls this trade off, it’ll be a miracle. I think Texas, who has oodles of top prospects ready to pop, has a better chance of making this trade once the ownership situation settles. Gonzales was a former Ranger who the GM has admitted was a huge mistake to trade. His heritage/ethnicity will play very well in Texas.
But I also think the Nats and the Orioles could surprise people with what they would offer for this guy. The Nats, especially, who are in dire need of a franchise type player to pair with Strasburg (when he arrives) and Zimmerman.
To think Boston is the only potential landing spot for this guy is just silly fanboy nonsense.
You feel like writing my college finals any time soon?
Also, your points kick ass. Do work my friend.
Texas just called up Smoak not too long ago so I don’t think they’ll make a play for Gonzalez this season, and probably not even next trade deadline either.
I completely agree with everything you said, except I don’t think Agon will get 25m a year. Everyone knows that Ryan Howard is overpaid. I think Miguel Cabrera money is a fair contract for Agon, they are very comparable players
Doing some dreaming:
LF: Jayson Werth
CF: Jacoby Ellsbury
RF: JD Drew (maybe Reddick if he’s ready?)
3B: Adrian Beltre (can’t think of another solid third baseman that would be available..)
SS: Marco Scutaro
2B: Dustin Pedroia
1B: Kevin Youkilis
C: Wilson Ramos (hah, just kidding. Not sure who would take this slot…Martinez maybe, if he gets his act together behind the plate, but its likely Epstein doesn’t trust his durability back there and goes with someone else. -MAYBE- Ibarra, but I highly doubt it. Maybe a cheap FA or something, who can throw, to tide over until someone like Ibarra is ready…or someone with pop, like Doumit, or Iannetta. Not sure.)
DH: Adam Dunn (I doubt Martinez will be interested in resigning as a fulltime DH, and the Sox won’t be interested in signing him as a fulltime catcher)
SP1: Beckett
SP2: Lester
SP3: Lackey
SP4: Buchholz
SP5: Dice-K? Sigh. That guy needs to figure his crap out, and quick.
Outside of Ramos at Catcher (who would definitely cost Bard and/or Bucholz) that’s a realistic lineup. Reddick will never turn into a full time player by the way. His swing doesn’t project well in the majors despite what Gammons and Law will claim. If he had the ability, he’d be up right now.
I do think they get Werth. He just seems like their kind of player and his bat neutralizes some of the Yankees LH pitching, even if Pettitte goes and the Yankees sign Lee.
I think the Yankees are zeroed in on Crawford and Lee. With Javy, Nick Johnson, Pettitte among others coming off the books next season, the Yankees can sign the both of them.
If the Yankees throw out a rotation with CC and Lee in it (along with Hughes and AJ), the Red Sox better hope they get Werth.
And I also see them giving Adam Dunn serious money to be their DH.
I think they move on from VMart who will convince some poor team to give him dollars befitting a Catcher who can hit. Probably the Mets would be dumb enough to do that.
Yeah, I agree, Ramos is out of the picture 😛 And yes, if the Yanks are getting Crawford/Lee, which looks likely, things can get scary next year. Too bad about Reddick, he seemed promising to me. If it’s not Ramos or Martinez though, then whats your thoughts on the Red Sox catcher for next year? As I said, Ibarra is projected to be, at best, ready by next year, although very unlikely. After that I’m not too sure who’d be appealing to the Sox, as well as available. Kurt Suzuki would rock, but is out of their price range likely. Same with Miguel Montero…who’s that other catcher for Arizona though, is it Chris Snyder? Maybe when Montero returns he could be available? Dunno, just sort of randomly brainstorming.
Catcher is a tough one. They really needed VMart to work out behind the plate. His utter failure so far comes as a shock to no one who has been watching him over the years, but I think the Sox thought they could get by if he produced his normal offensive stats.
They can’t resign him to be a catcher and if they offer him DH money (like Matsui/Vlad in the 6-8 million range) he’ll go somewhere else. I just have that weird feeling that the Mets will sign him to catch which would be disastrous for them but would qualify as a typical Mets move.
I could see Boston trading for Snyder this season who probably fits the role better than anyone they have right now, but the issue with him is he makes a lot of money and has an injury history. Still, the fact that he makes good money makes him easier to get, in my opinion, since Arizona is motivated to move him if Montero is healthy.
Suzuki will cost a fortune in prospects. The only good thing is that the A’s will take A ball types in a deal so if the bottom level of the Red Sox system is flush, they have a shot at getting him as Beane likes to acquire players who project down the road that he can control.
I know the hype on the catchers in the Boston system are pretty high, so hopefully for their sake one of them make the jump.
I really think Mauer staying in Minny was a bit of a shock for Boston. I think they thought he’d chase every last dollar and I think Boston was prepared to bid above the Yankees for him since the Yankees would have balked at the price at some point with Posada still on the payroll and Jesus Montero and Austin Romine in the upper minors.
I wouldn’t be shocked if Theo didn’t revisit trade talks with Texas and try to acquire one of Ramirez, Teagarden and Saltalamcchia. Teagarden is defense first and already played himself out of Texas and back to AAA, so his price tag has dropped in a sense.
The only way the Yankees can keep payroll level and get Crawford and Lee is if both Jeter and Mo take paycuts, or if both Lee and Crawford take discounts to come to NY, and neither of these scenarios is likely. It’s actually more likely that the Yankees raise payroll if they decide they truly want both guys.
Doing some dreaming:
LF: Jayson Werth
CF: Jacoby Ellsbury
RF: JD Drew (maybe Reddick if he’s ready?)
3B: Adrian Beltre (can’t think of another solid third baseman that would be available..)
SS: Marco Scutaro
2B: Dustin Pedroia
1B: Kevin Youkilis
C: Wilson Ramos (hah, just kidding. Not sure who would take this slot…Martinez maybe, if he gets his act together behind the plate, but its likely Epstein doesn’t trust his durability back there and goes with someone else. -MAYBE- Ibarra, but I highly doubt it. Maybe a cheap FA or something, who can throw, to tide over until someone like Ibarra is ready…or someone with pop, like Doumit, or Iannetta. Not sure.)
DH: Adam Dunn (I doubt Martinez will be interested in resigning as a fulltime DH, and the Sox won’t be interested in signing him as a fulltime catcher)
SP1: Beckett
SP2: Lester
SP3: Lackey
SP4: Buchholz
SP5: Dice-K? Sigh. That guy needs to figure his crap out, and quick.
1st: Why would any GM, regardless of history, not want to deal with the best possible player who fills a role that the team NEEDS, regardless of his agent? That’s not good baseball. (Fielder)
2nd: Not sure where/when Ortiz and Lowell were included in any trade package for AGONZ.
3rd: I completely agree that the BOSOX cannot afford to pay twice for a player like AGONZ.
I had never thought about Texas and Agon, but the more I think about it, the more it makes sense. Not saying they will get him, but definitely be huge bidders
Texas has one of the deepest farm systems in the majors next to Tampa. In fact, I think they are both neck and neck. The one thing that Texas also has is more players at high levels in the minors who could step into SD and make a difference.
If Boston had those kind of players, they would be using them right now.
Texas’ only issue is the sale that is currently going through completion. Once Hicks is out and the new ownership is in, it’s very possible that the checkbooks will open for this kind of franchise player.
The other obstacles for Boston’s gifting of Gonzales are teams like the Cubs who will have a hole to fill when they let Derek Lee depart. The White Sox are going to be done with Konerko soon so they are a potential landing spot as well.
My point is, Boston isn’t the only game in town for this player and it’s about time that Boston fans stop acting like it’s their divine right to get him simply because they want him and they think that Jed Hoyer is dumb enough to hand him to them like Garnett was handed to the Celtics.
Personally, I hope Hoyer keeps the player and signs/extends him and builds around him. If he plans on contending in 3-5 years and sticking around that long as a GM, he’ll need a franchise player like the one he has to do it.
CadeMan,
Theo, Henry and Lucchino have a deep aversion to dealing with Boras when it comes to big ticket kinds of players (i.e. Texiera). Boras will use his mystery team tactic with them in hopes to get them to overpay and it will tick the Boston front office off. They only seem to deal well with Boras on players like Beltre, not the lead dog free agents.
Prince Fielder is a great option for Boston, but they aren’t getting him for less than Ryan Howard money considering how much younger than Howard he is.
Except they dealt with him for Drew, Matsuzaka and probably would’ve gone after Holliday if not for their primary farm depth being in the outfield.
The idea that the Sox won’t deal with Boras is a myth. If he’s representing the best available option, they will work with him if they have to.
They didn’t go after Holliday because hey only had the money to spend on Holliday or Lackey and they decided Lackey (who cost a helluva lot less than Holliday) was their big move.
They have no primary farm depth in the OF, unless you’re talking about Reddick and the 32 year old journeyman currently playing right now who the Red Sox signed as organizational filler.
As for Drew and Dice K, you are correct that they worked with Boras on those deals, however those are 2 of the deals you most often head complaints about.
Boras will get Fielder Ryan Howard money. He always pulls this off with his in their prime players. It’s the past their prime players he has trouble with.
I could see the Red Sox balking at paying that kind of price because of Fielder’s body type and rightfully so. I wouldn’t sign Prince Fielder to an 8 year deal for 25 million a year.
Fuentes, Kalish, Westmoreland…just a couple guys off the top of my head. Obviously, Westmoreland has issues this year. And the other guys probably just project as AAAA players or something, but they all have good talent and if they play to their ceiling could all become valid big-league players. Plus I don’t know why people have been so down on Reddick…well, maybe I’ll find out in a couple years when he’s Darnell McDonald Mach II. But if any of those guys play well, they could be legitimate starting outfielders, and at least Reddick and Kalish are ready for September callups at the least.
By depth, it just means out of all the positions in our farm system, that’s likely our strongest.. At catcher you’ve got Ibarra, who’s a major unknown right now, and Exposito, who has a lot of raw power but who knows what will come of that. Shortstop, there’s only Iglesias. Pitching, only Kelly (everyone else projects at best to be back of the rotation). Lars Anderson is at first base, and he had a horrible year last year. Can’t really think of any other top prospects…So yeah, outfield is our strongest position in the farm right now. Clearly, not much of a farm…heh.
They didn’t go after Holliday because hey only had the money to spend on Holliday or Lackey and they decided Lackey (who cost a helluva lot less than Holliday) was their big move.
They have no primary farm depth in the OF, unless you’re talking about Reddick and the 32 year old journeyman currently playing right now who the Red Sox signed as organizational filler.
As for Drew and Dice K, you are correct that they worked with Boras on those deals, however those are 2 of the deals you most often head complaints about.
Boras will get Fielder Ryan Howard money. He always pulls this off with his in their prime players. It’s the past their prime players he has trouble with.
I could see the Red Sox balking at paying that kind of price because of Fielder’s body type and rightfully so. I wouldn’t sign Prince Fielder to an 8 year deal for 25 million a year.
Except they dealt with him for Drew, Matsuzaka and probably would’ve gone after Holliday if not for their primary farm depth being in the outfield.
The idea that the Sox won’t deal with Boras is a myth. If he’s representing the best available option, they will work with him if they have to.
yes there are other destinations for AGON with a trade. Texas, atlanta, many others. I would agree. But none of these teams have the capability to sign him. They are larger revenue teams than the padres yes, but even if he goes to these teams that you mentioned doesn’t mean that he won’t make it to free agency. In fact, if he is traded to any team that doesn’t have the capability to sign him long term, and the trade is mostly a rental (with a small prayer to sign him) I would argue that would only INCREASE the possibility he gets to free agency. just like Texiera
Ronny — I agree with you about the fact that larger payroll teams can only afford him. But when you list Boston, Seattle, both Chicago teams, the Orioles, the Nats, the Giants, Texas (who are being sold) and the Dodgers (if the divorce thing gets settled soon), I don’t see how Boston holds some huge advantage over any of them. All of those teams can afford a young franchise 1b money wise.
The only advantage the Red Sox have is that the Yankees and Mets are both apparently set at 1b.
I agree. A-Gon is definitely not a sure thing at all. Only thing I wonder about is if anyone else will be able/willing to make the trade this year, and then if SD will be able to re-sign. Now, if the Padres can re-sign him, then it’s pretty much official, he’s not coming to Boston. But if they know that’s not going to happen…well. Those teams you mentioned definitely have the prospects (although I doubt Chicago makes the deal without including Beckham, which they won’t), but I don’t know if they will be able to make the extension happen. And if they think like I do, then they might be even more reluctant than the Sox to make a trade, if it seems possible they’ll only get a year and a half of Gonzalez. For the Sox, I think once they got him over here, they would spend pretty much whatever it takes for him to stay. The problem was they weren’t offering SD enough trade chips. I can see a couple possibilities where A-Gon arrives in Boston; 1. where the Padres compete this year and don’t make a trade with Gonzalez til halfway through next year, which means they won’t be able to milk his trade potential for quite as much, and the Sox might have a couple new highly-touted prospects to deal with, and 2. Gonzalez goes to free agency, after Hoyer doesn’t ever get a decent trade offer, and can’t afford to make an extension.
Yes, I hate people who think A-Gon is a sure thing as well (used to be one of them a couple months ago!), but I do think its possible Padres never make a move this year, and give Boston another chance in a year or so.
Great post BoSoxSam.
The only thing that could derail a trade of this player is the Padres contending. If Hoyer is doing his job correctly, there should be some improvement in the team next season. If A-Gon makes it to next season as a Padres, I almost don’t see him getting traded.
I know the Padres need to rebuild, but A-Gon is still young enough to be part of that process and the NL West is frankly a joke division where you can win w/o having to win 90 games.
Unless a team ovewhelms them with young ready for the majors talent, I don’t see them making this deal. Especially not for a bunch of guys in A ball.
Looking at this scenario this season, I don’t think the Red Sox have the prospects to make this deal right now. Especially, if A-Gon doesn’t agree to sign an extension upon being traded. If that’s the case, then he’s clearly a rental and the teams who may not want to sign him long term would then bid on him accordingly for 1.5 seasons of play.
If Boston is going to pay in prospects and dollars, they need an extension to be part of the deal otherwise it makes no sense for them. They can’t make that trade without locking him up.
I don’t think the White Sox would surrender Beckham either, but Kenny Williams is nutty sometimes and likes to make the big deal no one else would make.
I actually think Seattle, if they have any top prospects left (don’t know the system well enough right this moment) would empty the vault for A-Gon and then sign him to the big contract. They almost have to pay twice because they are desperate for that kind of offensive presence in their lineup.
Boston, like the Yankees, both know that paying a high price in prospects and then pay a high price in a contract extension is bad business for a large market team who needs the cheap prospect players to fill gaps in the 25 man roster or to use for trades like Granderson where you acquire a good player with years left on his deal and you don’t need to resign him.
The Yankees saved themselves a ton of problem by not dealing top prospects for Johan and then signing him to a top dollar contact. By skipping paying twice, they got Sabathia for just money and held on to Hughes.
I’m pretty sure Theo thinks that paying twice for A-Gon could be a team killer.
Great post BoSoxSam.
The only thing that could derail a trade of this player is the Padres contending. If Hoyer is doing his job correctly, there should be some improvement in the team next season. If A-Gon makes it to next season as a Padres, I almost don’t see him getting traded.
I know the Padres need to rebuild, but A-Gon is still young enough to be part of that process and the NL West is frankly a joke division where you can win w/o having to win 90 games.
Unless a team ovewhelms them with young ready for the majors talent, I don’t see them making this deal. Especially not for a bunch of guys in A ball.
Looking at this scenario this season, I don’t think the Red Sox have the prospects to make this deal right now. Especially, if A-Gon doesn’t agree to sign an extension upon being traded. If that’s the case, then he’s clearly a rental and the teams who may not want to sign him long term would then bid on him accordingly for 1.5 seasons of play.
If Boston is going to pay in prospects and dollars, they need an extension to be part of the deal otherwise it makes no sense for them. They can’t make that trade without locking him up.
I don’t think the White Sox would surrender Beckham either, but Kenny Williams is nutty sometimes and likes to make the big deal no one else would make.
I actually think Seattle, if they have any top prospects left (don’t know the system well enough right this moment) would empty the vault for A-Gon and then sign him to the big contract. They almost have to pay twice because they are desperate for that kind of offensive presence in their lineup.
Boston, like the Yankees, both know that paying a high price in prospects and then pay a high price in a contract extension is bad business for a large market team who needs the cheap prospect players to fill gaps in the 25 man roster or to use for trades like Granderson where you acquire a good player with years left on his deal and you don’t need to resign him.
The Yankees saved themselves a ton of problem by not dealing top prospects for Johan and then signing him to a top dollar contact. By skipping paying twice, they got Sabathia for just money and held on to Hughes.
I’m pretty sure Theo thinks that paying twice for A-Gon could be a team killer.
I agree. A-Gon is definitely not a sure thing at all. Only thing I wonder about is if anyone else will be able/willing to make the trade this year, and then if SD will be able to re-sign. Now, if the Padres can re-sign him, then it’s pretty much official, he’s not coming to Boston. But if they know that’s not going to happen…well. Those teams you mentioned definitely have the prospects (although I doubt Chicago makes the deal without including Beckham, which they won’t), but I don’t know if they will be able to make the extension happen. And if they think like I do, then they might be even more reluctant than the Sox to make a trade, if it seems possible they’ll only get a year and a half of Gonzalez. For the Sox, I think once they got him over here, they would spend pretty much whatever it takes for him to stay. The problem was they weren’t offering SD enough trade chips. I can see a couple possibilities where A-Gon arrives in Boston; 1. where the Padres compete this year and don’t make a trade with Gonzalez til halfway through next year, which means they won’t be able to milk his trade potential for quite as much, and the Sox might have a couple new highly-touted prospects to deal with, and 2. Gonzalez goes to free agency, after Hoyer doesn’t ever get a decent trade offer, and can’t afford to make an extension.
Yes, I hate people who think A-Gon is a sure thing as well (used to be one of them a couple months ago!), but I do think its possible Padres never make a move this year, and give Boston another chance in a year or so.
i want the sox to get miguel cabrera. He’s gunna be cheaper than adrian and prince. Plus he can hit in the AL. trade papelbon, buchholz, and some other prospects.
Adam Dunn would be a nice fit at DH for them.
Adam Dunn would be a nice fit at DH for them.
Forget Adrian and get Miguel cabrera. She’s gunna be cheaper compaired to Adrian and prince and would cost less to get too. Trade papelbon, buchholz, bowden, Anderson.
Adrianna Gonzalez you say?
You get what I mean. Miguel is also younger.
Forget Adrian and get Miguel cabrera. She’s gunna be cheaper compaired to Adrian and prince and would cost less to get too. Trade papelbon, buchholz, bowden, Anderson.