The early verdict on Ryan Howard's five-year, $125MM contract extension isn't pretty from the point of view of several pundits, but the deal has to be great news for other slugging first basemen who may soon be hitting the free agent market. Here are some opinions on how Howard's contract will impact other major players…
- Fanhouse's Tom Krasovic spoke to John Boggs, who represents Adrian Gonzalez. Boggs feels that "[Howard's deal] bodes well for Adrian Gonzalez, because it validates the fact that he's worth that kind of money or more." Boggs noted that there have been no talks of an extension with the Padres, who have a $5.5MM club option on Gonzalez for the 2011 season that they're sure to exercise. Given Gonzalez's youth (he will be 29 when he hits free agency), great away splits (his lifetime line of .264/.365/.443 at PETCO Park is well below his .282/.364/.510 career line) and steadily improving glove (he has posted positive UZR/150 numbers over the last two years), he looks to be a strong bet to get a contract larger than Howard's from a team other than San Diego.
- Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch looks at Howard's place in largest-contract history, and notes that Albert Pujols "figures to zoom by" the Phillies' slugger. Indeed, if the Cardinals had signed Pujols to a five-year, $125MM extension, they would be doing jumping jacks in St. Louis right now. The Cardinals have a no-brainer $16MM option on Pujols for 2011, and no matter if Pujols re-signs in St. Louis or goes elsewhere, he'll be looking at a contract with an average annual value of over $30MM. Braves manager Bobby Cox told Goold Pujols is worth $50MM a year in light of Howard's deal.
- Prince Fielder is eliglble for arbitration this winter and can also be a free agent after the 2011 season. We've already heard whispers about the size of the deal that Fielder is looking for, and he will be just 27 when he hits the free agent market. Fielder, however, has to deal with question marks about his long-term fitness and his fielding ability (a -6.2 career UZR/150), but agent Scott Boras will no doubt have his best counter-argument prepared to rebut those concerns. With Boras at the negotiating table, it's very unlikely the Brewers will get a hometown discount.
- Pablo Sandoval is under San Francisco's control through 2014, but Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News points out that Howard's extension is a "great lesson" to Sandoval that getting in better shape can lead to bigger money in the future.
Let the ludicrous Adrian Gonzalez trade proposals begin.
Sign Werth, Trade Ibanez for pitching depth or salary relief and bring up DomBrown. Problem solved, if it were only that easy. I love Ibanez and all, but in the long wrong it will not workout cuz DBrown will be ready come next year def.
and you can’t replace your ONLY true RH powerbat in the line-up with an inexperienced LH Bat..
and I’d like the Mets to trade Oliver Perez, Castillo, and GM Jr. for real baseball players, but unfortunately they have this crazy rule where BOTH teams have to agree to a trade. Madness I say!
Haha, yeah, like I said it would be tough, but it’s what will have to be done to keep Werth. This is why I feel Victorino may get traded.
Any team giving a 27 year old Prince Fielder more than a 5 year contract is absolutely silly. Unless he can get in shape he will likely be cooked by mid 30s just like his dad was.
You’re silly he’s 25.
Yeah? And how old will he be in 2 years when he hits free agency? If you need a hint, read the main posting in this thread.
Remember: Ruben Amaro’s first base job and idea of pricing are both off the market too. There’s one less sucker at the poker table.
yea, but the idea that Howard got 25M/year, Prince can demand at least 23M and Albert can demand about 50M/year lol
The market was slowly returning to normalcy after the A-Rod deal (deals) completely skewed it…this contract undoes all of that
Ummm….No we can’t agree. You forgot to mention the team that currently employs him. I think it’s hilarious fans of teams other then the cards really think ownership would just let him walk off to another team. Do you people not read alberts comments?? He wants to be a cardinal for life. Our payroll will go up after this season once there tickets prices can be changed due to the fact that there locked in through this year at there current prices. Plus the cardinals are paying there stadium off at a mucher higher rate then most other teams, so there is extra money there if need be. Believe me when i say, albert is a cardinal for life!
well not really…the fact that about 4 1B are becoming free-agents at the same time…meanwhile…there are only about 3 teams that have a 1B spot open AND can afford the price….means the players dont have as much leverage as one thinks…
assuming pujols hits free-agency…
how many teams have a 1B spot open and can commit 25-30 Mil for 7-8 years ?
can we assume the playing field is cut to 15 teams….signing the 1B to a NL team with no DH is insane…
( unless the DH is coming to the NL in 2012 )
so now the playing field is limited to…
1 – The Sawx ?
2 – The Rangers ?
3 – The Orioles ?
…and for the record…no way on earth does prince get more than 5/75 at his weight…
if there are some parts of the contract that say he gets an extra 2 million for being 225 pounds or 12 % body fat…well we might see a slim and trim prince fielder
Prince will easily get 5 years, $100 million. It’s just how much more than that he gets that is in question.
I think the concerns about his weight are overblown, but the concerns about how badly he’ll decline past the age of 30 are not.
I don’t think the Brewers should sign him to such an extension at this point; as you could use that same $25 million to sign a very good but non-elite 1B like an Adam Dunn, and still pay a #1 type pitcher with the remaining money. That would leave them in much better shape competitively than they are right now.
easily ?
really?
from who?
yankees will be out the running
mets more than likely as well
Red Sox and Angels could be in the running, and might be more likely to sign him since he could move to DH eventually (though if you’ve actually watched him, his defense is at least adequate at this point). You could also see some lesser teams looking to make a splash like the Orioles or Nationals. Heck, you could possibly see the Cubs go after him if Lee is no longer around.
You seem to really be underrating Fielder. Have you looked at his numbers? He figures to be better in the next 5-7 years than Howard.
no chance the mets or the yankees sign fielder. they both have either a star at first base or a prospect who they are trying to groom
i agree with the yankees…with the mets there is a chance ike davis turns out to be a bust or gets injured…in which case they would have to be considered players for fielder, pujols, gonzalez.
the mets will have 56.5 mill come off their books in the form of Beltran, K-Rod, Castillo and Perez in the 2011 off-season..
of course if Ike Davis turns out to be a solid 1st basemen defensively and offensively…thats 56.5 mil they can spend on other things…
Thats enough to sign Pujols at 30 Mil, and have 26.5 leftover
i agree with the yankees…with the mets there is a chance ike davis turns out to be a bust or gets injured…in which case they would have to be considered players for fielder, pujols, gonzalez.
the mets will have 56.5 mill come off their books in the form of Beltran, K-Rod, Castillo and Perez in the 2011 off-season..
of course if Ike Davis turns out to be a solid 1st basemen defensively and offensively…thats 56.5 mil they can spend on other things…
Thats enough to sign Pujols at 30 Mil, and have 26.5 leftover
The Red Sox will most likely make a play for one of the guys. The Rangers won’t because of Justin Smoak. The Orioles could possibly make a play for one of them if the money is there.
I could also see the White Sox and Tigers (depends how they spend their upcoming money this offseason) making a play for one of those guys. I wouldn’t rule out the Cubs either.
Did you forget that the Tigers have Miguel Cabrera locked in at 1B?
No, but the fact that they could want one of them to DH is a possibility, hence why I said it depends on how they would want to spend the money they have coming off the books. Wouldn’t you be attracted to the idea of a Cabrera/Fielder duo?
I dont think its crazy for an NL team to commit to a 1b… it just happened… One interesting team could be the Dodgers if we get rid of McCourt. A new owner could look for a way to prove that he is willing to spend and go out and get one of Albert/Agon/Prince… I can dream right 🙂
dude, it is completely crazy….thats why only 1 team has done it…
i have a feeling mlb owners are willing to concede the DH rule and adopt it
in both leagues after 2011
I think any team would be happy, AL or NL, to have Albert or Agon manning 1b for the next 8-10 years. Prince, I can see an argument, especially with his weight, but it isnt completely crazy at all. And you dont see it often for many reasons. One, there simply arent many players that are good enough that even with decline as they age, will still be one of the best in the league. Another is the team that will develop these guys can usually not afford to support these contracts. The Padres would love to have Agon, but cannot commit 25M+ a season when they will suck. If Albert doesnt stay a Card, it will be because they couldnt afford him with Holliday. Fielder is slightly different because of the health questions, but still, I think the Brew Crew wouldnt mind having him for the next 5 years…
I do hope we have a resolution on the DH rule. These guys are professionals and should play by the same rules.
ehhh….Albert I can see….esp in the AL…I dont see it with A-Gon….
Fielder can get 5/25 with option years / clauses that can push it to
100…if he wants more years…he needs to lose more weight and show his
dedication like Ryan did…point blank…there is NO REASON why a man who
doesnt have a 9-5 does not have the body of an adonis
Why not with Agon? He was better defensively than Albert.. 4.6 UZR/150 to 1.9 UZR/150. Agon is younger as well, and has consistently had a power increase. And there arent questions about Agon’s age, like there are with Albert… I think its safe to say that all 30 teams would take them for the next 8 years…
Prince, I agree, he isnt going to get Howards contract. But he will get something close.. at least 20M/per, and depending on interest, could get really close.
Pujols averages .334 with 43 HR…and 124 RBI’s….he hits .330 vs rhp….he
hits .345 vs lhp….
A-Gon averages .282….32 HR…99 RBI’s per year…hits .242 vs lhp…do u
really wanna pay someone like that 25 mil a year??
You take the worst part of Agon’s game, his average, as what you base your argument on. Still, he is a career 282 hitter and averages 32 HRs a year. He also plays in the most pitcher friendly park in baseball. He isnt on Albert’s level, like you said no one is, but he is on that next tier with guys like Tex… He will get 25M/yr. Howard got 25M/year and plays in a more-hitter friendly park, cant hit lefties at all, and cant make contact.. he averages about 70 more Ks than Agon..
ummm…did u not see the difference in home runs and RBI’s ???…and just
because Howard got 25 mil, this does not mean every owner is going to
subscribe to that….
assuming Pujols is not re-signed by the Cards….and goes to lets say….the
Red Sox ( more than likely )…
how many teams can afford to assign 25% or more of their payroll to A-Gonz /
Fielder ?
Seattle ?
NY Mets? ( assuming Ike Davis turns out to be a bust )
Cubs?
White Sox?
I said that Agon isnt on Albert’s level… Id argue that he is on Howard’s level though. Howad had a WAR of 4.9, compared to Agon’s 6.5. So Agon was a LOT better than Howard.
These stars will get paid. The point is the player can demand 25M a year and wont be laughed at. They can point to howard getting that, while being able to negotiate with only one team and being worth less wins than Agon.
I think we have established that Albert will get paid.. a lot. Fielder, like I said, may be the one who will have trouble finding work, but im sure he could convince a team like Boston(who can play him at 1B and switch him DH if they need to) that his bat, in a hitters park, will be worth it. Remember, Fielder posted a 6.8 WAR last year..
When it comes to Fielder, the problem is not the annual salary, but rather
the amount of years….
simply saying these stars will get paid is not really accurate…
Halliday is arguably better than Santana….
guess who is getting paid more per year? Santana
guess who signed for 4 more years? Santana
everything is about timing.
if Agon was a free-agent in this coming off-season, I see Boston going all
out 25 mil for 7 years…
take away Boston, Yanks, Mets, Dodgers, Angels, Phillies….I dont see 5
teams to compete for the services of Fielder, Pujols, A-Gon.
Both teams overplayed the Halladay and Santana hands. Toronto didnt budge on the package and the only team that Doc seemed willing to go to that was willing to give anything of value for him. He got the deal he wanted 3/60. Santana made it clear that he wanted to go to a winner that was going to pay him the most. The Mets were the only team that was offering anything of value(at the time, the prospects were fairly highly rated) and was willing to give Santana a huge contract. Id be willing to bet that the Mets wish they could take 5 years off that deal. Also, it was the market. Santana got his deal in a player market, while Doc got his in a near-depression market..
Why is Boston, Mets, Dodgers, or Angels taken out of the market? Boston has a ton of money coming off the books. The Dodgers may get rid of the McCourts by then and be willing to spend and the Angels may decide they need a big bat to replace Vlad and Tex if their current plans dont work. Thats just the big teams. There are plenty of teams that will pay these guys.
The famous quote a few years ago “The stars will always get paid, the average guys get screwed”(Im paraphrasing, but you get my point)..
Remember that if Albert leaves, STL will need someone to replace him…
r u sure u follow baseball?
“Id be willing to bet that the Mets wish they could take 5 years off that deal. ”
that would make Johan a free-agent this year…
and getting halladay for 3/60 is a STEAL…his numbers are comparable to Santana and Sabathia and he signed for less on an annual basis and half as many years…
Im saying with the arm injuries Santana has had, he has already lost 3 MPH off his fastball, and I believe a 2-3 MPH on his slider. His change is also moving less. He is slowly becoming a 5-6 inning pitcher, making over 20M a year. Look at the game today, he had 100 pitches through 5 innings…
And yea, Halladay is a steal.. did i say otherwise?
“And yea, Halladay is a steal.. did i say otherwise?”
Both teams overplayed the Halladay and Santana hands.
yes, he is losing some mph…however what he is not losing is location and
movement…he will be at an ace level for 2 more years after this
season…which means they will suffer in his last 2 years…if Santana
brings a chip…im sure thats a sacrifice they are willing to make….they
knew when they made the deal ( as with the Pedro deal ) they would overpay
for 1-2 years…remember they had an aging pedro..an aging glavine…an
aging el duque…an erratic perez…and a young maine/pelfrey…they needed
Santana…
thats TOTALLY different than the Phils extending Howard 2 years BEFORE he
hits free-agency…( same principle goes to picking up Jimmy Rollins 2011
option in the 2010 offseason…u gain NOTHING )
lets not compare apples to oranges.
um, you’re the one who brought up Santana and Halladay…
And Santana is losing MPH on his pitches and his change isnt moving like it did a few years ago… maybe he regains it as he comes back from surgery, maybe not.
The point is if you gave the Mets the chance to take that 20M+ on FA/trades, there would be a thought of spreading it out among a couple of pitchers…
in the case of the mets,
there is no other pitcher available at that time ( or now ) that could
replace johan’s level of production AND fill other spots…
who would u propose the mets can get for the next 4 years for under 20 Mil
that can bring Johan level production and is less of an injury risk than
Johan?
depends on which Johan you get. If you get the 07/08, no one could. But if you get the one that was out there today, there are many guys who could do it for less…
u mean the one that shut out the dodgers with ethier, kemp, loney with less than stellar stuff….?
now ur just reaching.
u do realize that in 30 innings this year…he has given up 7 runs…and 4 of those came off 1 shot against the Nats in the 1st inning of his 2nd start..take that away..and its 3 runs over 30 innings…thats a Sub 1 ERA…
I’m sure the Mets would want to sell season ticket plans with ( insert inferior pitcher here ) as their Opening Day Starter….knowing that the proven commodities they have from 2-5 inspire nothing BUT confidence in their fan base.
exactly who in the mets aside from Santana is even close to a sure thing?
Pelfrey?
Maine?
Perez?
Niese?
Yes, santana didn’t give up any runs, but he also threw 100 pitches in 5 innings. Even though he didn’t give up any runs, he wasn’t sharp… He litterally walked the bases loaded. And shutting down the dodger offense has been easy since Manny went down.
My point with that statement was the Mets could have better used that 20M. Look at the team, they have Santana making over 20M and the rest of the rotation sucks. If they somehow get to the postseason, they won’t get farther with Santana and the rotation they have than if they could have used that for multiple pitchers
ok,
so exactly how in 2007’s off-season…knowing that you have no ace…and
pedro is an injury prone #1…glavine just got shelled in his last game as a
met…do u spend improve ur rotation WITHOUT getting Santana and signing him
for the 7 years he wanted….?
For one, Kuroda would have cost 11M/year. That would give them 9-12M to spend on another pitcher. I think they would have taken Kuroda and another #2/#3. Especially now. Yes, Santana was one of the best pitchers. But he is pitching as if he is past his prime. His stuff is losing movement and velocity. I wouldnt be surprised if they would at least consider getting rid of the 90M hes owed if they were given the shot
ok…the same Kuroda who had ELBOW SURGERY in 2006…
the same Kuroda who is 4 years OLDER than Santana…
the same Kuroda that was basically a .500 pitcher in Japan…
vs.
Johan Santana
so since Kuroda would be the Mets ace in ur world…who would the #2 pitcher
be ( in 2008 )…considering we still had Pedro Martinez under
contract…and who was looking great at the end of the 2007 season.
and since looking into the past everyone has 20/20 hindsight…
since 2008..Santana with a team that played like crap has a better record (
32-17 ) , a better ERA ( 2.73 ) …more strikeouts…less walks…and is
still 4 years younger….Kuroda was on the DL in 2008 ( shoulder injury )
then again on the DL injured for the first 2 months of 2009…he has missed
65 games in just over 2 years…
ok so who else u got besides Kuroda that would make Omar think twice about
whether he should have traded for and signed Johan Santana
“I wouldnt be surprised if they would at least consider getting rid of the
90M hes owed if they were given the shot”
ahhh yes…and risk losing the few fans they have coming to the game??
they are in 1st place and still skeptical met fans are barely coming to the
game…the only thing that will ensure attendance is a consistent winner on
the field…and trading ur only sure thing on the mound for ….( insert
whatever u think the mets are going to get for Santana ) is akin to just
giving up on the season…and now that they are in 1st place with NO
beltran, u can imagine how much stronger the bench would be once pagan is
the 4th OF and Beltran is back starting in CF…and no GMJ on the club (
which is addition by subtraction by itself )….
ahh yes, im sure the Mets would consider getting rid of Santana right
now…that makes perfect sense
to be fair…there is NO batter in baseball in Pujols class
Mark Reynolds and his Agent are happy as well.
MR is 4 years younger than Howard, and put up pretty similar offensive production (slightly less actually) while playing a more valuable defensive position at 3B.
Is MR the impact player that Howard is now – no, probably not. But it is very possible that in 4-5 years MR might be outproducing Howard.
You do realize the Mark Reynolds strikes out more than he gets on base don’t you? And while Reynolds does play a more valuable defensive position, he does so very horribly and unless he improves his defense drastically he won’t stick at 3B.
Ok, let’s look around the league at teams that need a first baseman…
Red Sox-Victor Martinez is a catcher, Varitek is better suited to be water boy and Youkilis is going be permanent third baseman.
And that’s all that needs to be said because the Red Sox are the only team that really need him and will be able to extend him and if anyone else tries then the sox will just blow them out of the water.