Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News snagged some interesting quotes from Giants catcher Bengie Molina yesterday. Molina is bitter about the lack of interest he received in free agency:
"If I had trouble finding a job after five of my best years, what am I supposed to expect? You are supposed to get paid for your numbers. But even if I have another good year, I know I cannot expect anything."
Molina's best offer was one year and $5.5MM from the Mets; he ultimately accepted $1MM less to stay with the Giants. He was coming off a year in which he posted a .285 OBP and .442 SLG. That works for a catcher, but it's not much different than what we might expect from Rod Barajas. I'm sure Molina was focused more on his 20 home runs and 80 RBIs. For this, we have to blame his agent at SFX.
Jermaine Dye also comes to mind. His agent, Bob Bry, told Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports that, "There is compelling evidence that suggests that home runs win games and that the emphasis on defense has reached the level of absurdity when you look at the numbers." In other words, all 30 teams are wrong about Dye's value, and Bry is right.
Another example: in November of '08, Garret Anderson talked about how he had "a very good season" and that his $11MM option was fair market value. He was coming off a .293/.325/.433 performance with 15 home runs and 84 RBIs. Anderson, a Scott Boras client, signed for $2.5MM with the Braves a few months later. Anderson overestimated his market value by $8.5MM.
Are these agents failing to value their clients properly? Are they not explaining how the market has changed in recent years? Or are they just trying to preserve the players' confidence?
Yep, these agents are clearly stuck in the past. The top top top guys like Sabathia happen to have both good traditional and advanced numbers, so they’ll be paid. But agents need to catch up with baseball fast. Going by AVG/HR/RBI might fool 2 or 3 GMs, but advanced stats are all over pretty much every club (save the Twins, who are proud to not have a stats department).
That said, the new emphasis on defense has kind of created an inverse Moneyball. Guys with good defense and OBP are now the ones everyone wants. The old veterans are now undervalued. Amazing.
I agree with Nutbunnies. Teams figure they are going to have to pay their younger players anyway, why not get rid of the older, slower, players that can only hit for power. Take Johnny Damon for example. Yes Johnny Damon hit well for the Yankees, but think of how many runs he cost them because of a weak arm. I think he got a little more than others in his same category because he still has some speed and he can hit for some OBP in addition to his average power numbers.
Nah the Twins brought a guy on this year apparently. Besides, who needs a stats guy if you’ve got an internet-savvy intern? You don’t need an advanced degree to read fangraphs…
Well actually further investigation reveals he’s not considered anything more than an intern, and IIRC he said he likes RBIs over OBP
No, he’s a full time staffer. And no, he doesn’t prefer RBI over modern sabermetric analysis.
You’re referencing an interview with assistant GM Rob Antony. Antony made a weak argument for RBI over slugging percentage. And it had nothing to do with the new stats guy.
The Twins have basically relied on their scouting department instead of stats for the last two or three decades.
Regardless, the Twins notoriously turn up their nose at stats. Gardenhire’s recent idiotic comments represent how the Smith regime has gone about their business. The full effects haven’t been felt yet, but he’s been poisoning their system since he became GM. Their top prospects are a good defensive catcher and a white Juan Pierre.
…and who would these guys be? Are you referencing Drew Butera and….ok, I don’t even know who White Juan Pierre is. Butera’s not a good catching prospect, it’s Wilson Ramos, and if you’re talking about Ben Revere (who draws plenty of comparisons to Pierre), he’s not even white.
Revere was who I was talking about, but I was confusing his body with another person’s body
Newsflash:
Sabremetrics cannot identify young talent. Statistical analysis can only analyze what a player has done and therefore provide evidence towards what they will do, or evaluate their value. It requires a track-record of performance. It requires a significant sample size.
How do you apply statistical analysis to a 19-yr old in A ball? You can’t.
That’s where scouting comes in.
Sabremetrics is best used when determining which high-minors and major league players to sign/extend.
Is it any surprise that an organization such as the Twins, which places a premium on scouting, routinely finds players who don’t rank highly by Baseball Prospectus, yet provide very capable at the MLB level?
The one aspect that the players and agents fail to recognize is a player’s age. Molina is an older catcher…Dye and Anderson were older outfielders. If hey posted numbers like 2008 or 2009 and they were 28-32, they would get longer contracts for more money…
Honestly, the one aspect people have failed to recognize is that Molina might not even have anything to really complain about. I casually mentioned it below, but think about it
5.5 MM – Molina turned this one down
4.5 MM – Bengie Molina (35)
3 MM (10), 3 MM (11) – Pudge Rodriguez (38)
2.25 MM (10), 3.75 MM (11) – Jason Kendall (35)
2 MM – John Buck (29)
2.15 MM – Gregg Zaun (39)
1.25 MM (10), 1.5 MM (11) – Brian Schneider (33)
1.25 MM – Yorvit Torrealba (31)
1 MM – Ramon Castro (34)
1 MM – Brad Ausmus (40)
950 K – Jason LaRue (36)
850 K – Mike Redmond (38)
775 K – Henry Blanco (38)
500 K – Rod Barajas (34)
400 K – Jose Molina (34)
Minor leagues: Josh Bard (32), Raul Chavez (37), Chad Moeller (35), Shawn Riggans (29), Mike Rivera (33)
still FA: Paul Bako (37)
Of the 19 catchers, he’s making a 2010 salary 50% higher then the next highest signed this offseason, and he was offered a deal as big as Pudge and Kendall will make combined this year. And that shouldn’t be forgotten, he was offered much more if he was willing to play for NY. (not having to be a Met is apparently worth 1 MM to some players who choose to later complain about not receiving enough)
I wish I was as unfortunate as Molina, as I bet some of the others above do.
Its funny that these particular baseball players are so off-base about what their value is. Dye and Anderson can definitely help their teams, but you can do alot of things for $11mil…
And, you might be able to make the argument that Bengie Molina makes almost any team worse. That .285 OBP is not ok, at all. Bengie should pay someone to let him play.
Bob Bry should tell the Rays that emphasizing defense is absurd. The truth is, defense doesn’t slump, and guys like Dye or Anderson who can play good defense are going to get paid. (example, Mike Cameron)
for 11 million bucks you can take a shot at signing 3 or 4 top notch developing Latin players to nice bonuses, and you’ll have them for 6 years at bargain prices…
“The truth is, defense doesn’t slump…..” Haha, tell that to Chuck Knoblauch!
Favorite Chuck Knoblauch story:
When Planet Hollywood opened at the Mall of America, a young Chuck Knoblauch was in attendance for the red-carpet opening. A local radio station posed an interview.
Interviewer: “Good to see you here tonight. And you are?”
Chuck: “Chuck Knoblauch.”
I: “Chuck. Knoblaugh. Well, can’t thank you enough for all your time.”
I am not sure if that was a typo daalper, but Dye is horrible defensively.
He meant players that are similar to Dye that are additionally good defenders, not that Dye himself was a good defender.
what i was trying to say is guys who hit like garret anderson or jermaine dye, plus play defense, will get paid. i used mike cameron as an example, because his stats ended up pretty similar to jermaine dye’s, but because cameron plays excellent centerfield, he got a multiyear contract.
I think this is more about taking a pay cut than looking at wrong numbers. Of course they will point to the positives.
Look at Molina, what is the difference in his performance a from few years ago when he ‘settled’ for a 1-year $5M deal with Toronto and then got a 3 year, $15MM per with SF? Was there an 80% decline in his performance to warrant a 80% paycut? I think most of us would be pretty insulted if we were forced to take a 50% paycut.
I know these guys all make insane amounts of money but pay is still a measure of self-worth and you’d have touble finding anybody who would take a paycut doing the same job without taking it personally.
Pay cuts are common though, the market has changed. It’d be like wanting a 2007 price for your house.
Sad thing is, plenty of people still want a 2007 price for their house.
It’s not as much of a decline in ability as it is a change of view on the statistics. Defense is a much bigger deal now. OBP is a much bigger deal now.
Of course they will take it personally when they have stayed consistent and get a huge pay cut, but it’s all about perceived value and supply and demand.
“Look at Molina… then got a 3 year, $15MM per with SF?”
Wait a sec… Molina didnt sign for “15MM per”, he signed for “15MM OVER”. He has been making in the 5MM range every year for the last 5 years and never took anything close to a 80% paycut
Can’t believe this nonsense.
Fair market value is what people are willing to pay. Not some number dreamed up by you our your agent who’s pumping your ego.
Ding! We have a winner. The market decides what fair market value is, not the agents, gm’s, players etc… If multiple teams needed catchers when Molina was on the market and few catchers were available he would have gotten higher bids. GM’s would have been forced to pay more, agents would have asked for more and catchers would have gotten more. When there’s no market, or a limited market for a service the compensation for that service is reduced or at least it does not rise. You wouldn’t know it in this day and age but that’s capitalism at work. You don’t get what you want just because you want it, you get what you’ve earned and deserve.
While it’s early and just a small snapshot, it’s interesting that Bengie has appeared more patient at the plate so far this year. It’s possible he might be realizing that a .280 OBP isn’t going to get him paid the big bucks unless he hits 50 homers. I’ve watched almost every Giants game over the last two years, and my view was that he got lazy at the plate (not to mention the weight room). I also think hitting clean up right after Vlad Jr. didn’t do his hitting approach any wonders, either.
They’re dreaming and are just hoping if they spout off that someone is going to believe them. Unfortunately they’re dealing with professionals when it comes to MLB GMs
Most of them anyway.
Dye just refuses to remember his second half last year. his defense i dont think is as bad as everyone says…I know I know what fangraphs says but I’m a die hard whitesox fan his defense never really cost us a game last year. Well at least no more than anyone else on the team. He has a very strong arm and a pretty good eye. I dont know what happened to him after the break but he broke down. Maybe his age, maybe conditioning but still this guy should find a job as a part time DH/OF. I’m very very surprised that the bosxo didnt look at him. He would have been great in Left there….heck if manny can do it anyone can. Plus Jd would have been a very good DH platoon with David “I’m not using steroids anymore and everyone wonders why i cant hi” Ortiz.
One other major factor is how many awful contracts have bitten GMs in the butt over the past decade, e.g. Alfonso Soriano, Barry Zito, et. al. Other GMs notice this, and get very gun-shy about offering big deals to anyone except the absolute cream of the crop, guarantee guys like Pujolz.
Baseball might benefit from the NFL system where not 100% of contracts are guaranteed, but of course that will never happen.
As long as chicks (and agents, and GM’s) dig the long ball, a mindset like Bengie’s is goign to be hard to eliminate.
Of course, he does have a point… not many catchers out there capable of hitting 20 HR a season.
“Of course, he does have a point… not many catchers out there capable of hitting 20 HR a season.”
How many are making 4.5 MM – especially at 35 YO?
EDIT – out of curiosity, I looked it up. Of Catchers with at least 100 PA last season, 20 would have hit 17+ HR if given the same amount of PA as Molina (who has averaged 18 HR/season the last three years). That’s out of 68 total qualifying, and marks about 30%.
One other major factor is how many awful contracts have bitten GMs in the butt over the past decade, e.g. Alfonso Soriano, Barry Zito, et. al. Other GMs notice this, and get very gun-shy about offering big deals to anyone except the absolute cream of the crop, guarantee guys like Pujolz.
Baseball might benefit from the NFL system where not 100% of contracts are guaranteed, but of course that will never happen.
I’ve always liked that aspect of the NFL system, you get guaranteed a certain amount for past accomplishments, and have to chance to earn even more if you show that you can continue that performance.
the new crop of gms arent swayed by names. they look at what a player has done last year and projected to do this year, they dont care if he was mvp calible 3 years ago.
I am actually interested in Dye’s agent’s “compelling evidence” that home runs win ball games and defense is overemphasized to absurd levels today.
I’m willing to entertain the possibility that he is right.
Why is it so hard to accept? Certain aspects of the game get overvalued all of the time. Stolen bases and contact hitting in the 1980’s, maybe defense in the 2010’s.
And individual players get overvalued all the time as well.
This is his evidence:
Teams that hit zero homers in a game had a .332 winning percentage.
One home run increased the winning percentage to .517, two home runs to .659.
It’s in the Rosenthal article.
That’s certainly the evidence.
It’s also weak evidence. You can find similar corresponding numbers to team who score 3, 4, or 5 runs a game.
The evidence presented doesn’t conclude whether a guy with moderate power and high RBI’s (think Bobby Abreu) is more valuable than a guy who has high power and moderate RBI’s (think Nelson Cruz).
Well, I agree with you mostly. But I’m not sure where the RBI argument holds any weight. All that has to do with is who is hitting before them; a little to do with their working under pressure maybe, but mostly its about how well the rest of the lineup gets on base. Abreu has played for some very good lineups. Not sure as much about Cruz, as I don’t follow Texas too well. Anyway, the point is I think nearly anybody would say Nelson Cruz is more valuable. Maybe not for fantasy as much because of the RBI thing, but in general with the same lineup, he would drive in more runs than Abreu.
Replace OBP for RBI’s then. But yeah, you get my point.
Teams that score more runs than their opponents win 100% of the time.
Hey, we can all do fun things with stats!
Agents will look at whatever numbers speak the best for their clients. Period.
Talk to Nick Punto’s agent, and I’m sure he’ll talk about defense being undervalued. Talk to Dye’s agent, and he’ll talk about RBI’s being undervalued.
It’s not a surprise. Boras routinely shifts the “most important aspect of baseball!” to whatever fits his client’s particular skill set.
Well, the media is going to have to do their part too – most game highlights are still home runs and webgems, and most everything else is still ignored.
Exactly what part is the broadcast media supposed to play? Game highlights are a few seconds of big hits and which means game winning hits and homeruns will always be the staple of highlights. Great fielding plays are also fun to watch and coverage will oftentimes include a big strikeout or steal or pickoff or runner thrown out and a few other key plays. “Most everything else is ignored” because you can only show a few highlights (unless its Red Sox v. Yankees, then ESPN goes on and on, mistakenly believing the whole U.S. cares about that match-up.) I think the broadcast media do a fantastic job with game highlights; home runs and webgems are popular because they are often game changers and if not, they are still fun to see.
Understood.
But if that’s the case, then you’re not going to see any change in the
perception of what’s important for a MLB player. You can’t have it both
ways.
Hey, I don’t mind having a pissed-off Bengie Molina behind the plate this year. If that’s what’s going to motivate him, so be it. In the plate discipline department, last season he didn’t take his first walk until 5/12 (!!!) and he’s already got 2 this season.
Seriously, though, if you take Bengie for what he is, a power hitting (and not much else) catcher who has some incredible hot streaks during the season, you shouldn’t be disappointed with him. Not to mention, he has caught the Cy Young award winner the past two years, so he must be doing something right behind the plate.
I think what you are seeing is the market for free-agent talent becoming more efficient because the newer GM’s don’t value one trick ponies who just bring the long ball. The top players still get the big bucks, but the days of the dime-a-dozen player getting multiple years, and far above market value salaries, are over. Get on base, play good defense, or as a pitcher miss bats, and keep it on the ground. That is the formula for a payday anymore.
Well, there’s that, and there’s also the desire of GM’s to get by with as many young, cheap players as possible.
The Cards, for instance, have 5 guys (according to the USA Today list) making $7.5 million or more, and five more guys making between $3 and $6 million. The other 16 make $2 million or less, and 12 of those 16 guys are making $400-405K, essentially the minimum.
What we’re seeing is the squeezing out of medium-level talent at medium-level prices. They’re going to find out that they’ll have to accept a lot less money to keep their careers going or they will indeed be replaced by a kid making the minimum.
We’ve seen this coming for a while now; the first harbinger was the trend towards the non-tendering of medium-level talent rather than taking those guys to arbitration. And the players’ union hasn’t done much about it, given their emphasis on the superstars.
The concern I have with focusing on a few metrics is that players will play to excel in those metrics at the cost of other aspects of their game.
For example, if BB’s are heavily valued (as they are today), won’t hitters be more likely to take early pitches? While running up on opposing pitchers pitch count is a positive, some players need 3 hacks to make contact. The result is more 3 outcome type hitters. Guys that hit HR’s, Walk, and in most cases, K. They are willing to sacrifice BA (and subsequently hits) in order to wait on the perfect pitch or hope for a walk.
Another example, as defense becomes more of a focal point, will players start spending more of their time working on defense while costing their development on offense?
The point is, an amazing defensive player that can’t hit is the trend of the day. Having a ton of walks is the trend of today. However, those trends shift based off current market inefficiencies. When Moneyball came out it was revolutionary – not because of the focus placed on OBP but instead the concept of a market inefficiency that caused certain valuable skill sets to be devalued.
As players adjust their game to the latest and greatest stats it can come at the cost of the overall development of a player. Now, most of these newer metrics do lead to a better ball-player, but not all. I’ve read too many articles to count where the author dismisses a player simply because he has a low walk rate, while extolling the virtues of another hitter because of his high walk rate. Yet, that article fails to mention that the first player had significantly more hits than the 2nd player who waited around for ball four.
The reality is that a properly constructed team should have different types of players to maximize their odds of winning.
“For example, if BB’s are heavily valued (as they are today), won’t hitters be more likely to take early pitches?”
If a first-pitch hitter is trying to do something he isnt as good at (possibly ignoring the very thing that got him to the majors) in hopes he gets more money, he sure isnt thinking out that plan very well
“some players need 3 hacks to make contact.”
If it takes you 3 hacks to even make contact, you probably dont deserve to be in the majors to begin with.
“They are willing to sacrifice BA (and subsequently hits) in order to wait on the perfect pitch or hope for a walk.”
If you are willing to lower your OBP just to “hope” you add to your BB total you will lose money, not add it.
“will players start spending more of their time working on defense while costing their development on offense?”
If they need that much time to develop both an offense and a defense, isnt their likelihood for success pretty minor to begin with?
“Yet, that article fails to mention that the first player had significantly more hits than the 2nd player who waited around for ball four.”
Mr. Pierre
Or: how I learned to stop praising hits and hate the weak grounder to short
I love baseball as much as anybody, but guys like Bengie Molina are living on another planet right now. In case he and Jermaine Dye and Orlando Hudson hadn’t noticed, the economy’s in the tank right now and nearly 10% of people who want jobs can’t find one. And Bengie, who has already raked in $28 million in his career, is carping because he’s only making $4.5 million to play a game? Wake up, guy.
“I always appreciate this game. I never take it for granted that I am still here. I am seriously happy in San Francisco. But I am not afraid to say this: When you do the work to make teams believe in you, and they don’t, it is a very hard thing to hear.”
Read the whole thing before you chastise a guy. Don’t mistake Bengie for being a bad guy…he really isn’t. He just has a ton of pride, which is a characteristic that should be applauded. Regardless of what the reality is, he believed his value was higher than what the market provided. When he started playing in the majors, his skills were valued a lot higher than they are now.
We’re supposed to applaud pride? Well shucks, that guy in the movie Se7en clearly must have misread his cardinal sins when he did all that stuff. What a tragic mistake.
And also, when he started playing the skills were valued differently AND he was a better player. Particularly defensively, it seems like he has lost a few steps. Maybe someone should inform him it’s time to learn some “old player” skills like taking a walk.
Do you take pride in your job? If not, then you probably don’t do it very well. Comparing Bengie Molina’s pride in his job to a murderer taking pride to the absolute extreme has no place in this conversation and, frankly, is lame.
As for his performance, he really hasn’t changed very much at all since he became an everyday player. Actually, an argument can easily be made that he has been a better player over the past 5 years than he was earlier in his career. As for defense, you really have zero basis for that argument whatsoever. Not that his defensive performance solely dictated it, but he did catch one of the top 3 pitching staffs in all of baseball last season and has been the catcher for NL Cy Young for the past two seasons. His blocking skills are very good and he calls a great game. The only part of his defense that has taken a significant dip is his ability to throw out would-be basestealers, which used to be excellent and is now probably considered average. And congratulations on your originality…I hope Bam Bam reads your comments and informs Molina “it’s time to learn some “old player” skills like taking a walk.” I’m sure it’s something he has not addressed.
“Comparing Bengie Molina’s pride in his job to a murderer taking pride to the absolute extreme has no place in this conversation and, frankly, is lame.”
He wasnt doing that, and its fairly shocking you didnt get it.
As far as Molina, he received the highest yearly pay of any catcher on the market and turned down an offer that would have been nearly as big as the AAV of the next two highest contracts combined. (Kendall and Pudge at 3MM AAV each, for a 6MM combined where Molina was offered 5.5 for 1 season) I just fail to see grounds to complain, would he have rather received a 1 year, 1.25 MM contract like Torrealba did?
Everybody wants to get paid, I get that. But I have to wonder if Bengie is a little jealous of Yadi’s contract, even if his brother is better on O and D.
Some teams have very few fans in the stands but the owners have other sorces of revenue plus they have all kinds of tax exemptions and the value of there teams constantly increase so it is doubtful even the smallest market team is losing money. If the reduction of players salarys would lead to cheaper parking, lowering admission costs, consession prices, and for dodger fans maybe finding a new vendor for the putrid overpriced half raw limp hanging dodger dogs which can only be consumed with a gob of brown mustard, and smothered in raw onions and relish to kill off the horsemeat taste. It is bad enough to charge $6.00 to 8.00 for one, could you at least sell a quality product.
But if the owners are unwilling to lower prices then it is of no benifit to the fan.
maybe if you didn’t look like a walking heart attack, people would have more faith in you.
“There is compelling evidence that suggests that home runs win games and that the emphasis on defense has reached the level of absurdity when you look at the numbers.”
There is compelling evidence that teams are not going to pay 3+ million for Jermaine Dye and the emphasis over whining to the media has reached a level of absurdity when you look for the teams with open DH slots.
But seriously, I love this quote. It doesn’t refute that Dye is a bad defender. It says “Sure, he sucks at defense, but who cares? This man hits dingers, darn it! Defense is overrated.” Like… who does that? If I go and interview for jobs and they are like “Sorry, your administrative skills aren’t quite good enough for this position” would it really benefit me to be like “Pshaw! Those are HIGHLY overrated to the point of absurdity. Just pay me what I’m asking for.”
All I have to say is maybe they could’ve maybe considered their age. I don’t know just a suggestion.
players like bengie should be happy getting anything at all. Nevermind how many HRs and RBIs you have, you’re a 35 year old catcher. If anyone is willing to take a chance on your knees not blowing out, more power to you. Especially be thankful that a team like SF picked you up again. They have Buster Posey waiting in the wings and after this year, you’ll be lucky to not be playing backup in SF (that is, of course, if Posey lives up to the expectations). I wouldn’t have picked up Bengie, and apparently about 27 other teams felt the same way.
Just shows that baseball players are payed too much to hit a baseball. THEY are just entertainment!!
Don’t complain about money, be happy you don’t have to think for a living!