The Twins are interested in Blue Jays reliever Jason Frasor, tweets Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun. Elliott qualifies the rumor by noting that the Blue Jays had two scouts at a Twins game, "but then they now have a ton of scouts to go to games."
The Twins interest in Frasor stems from Joe Nathan's likely need for season-ending Tommy John surgery. Frasor could step in and handle any late-inning role. The 32-year-old posted a 2.50 ERA, 8.7 K/9, and 2.5 BB/9 in 57.6 innings for the Blue Jays last year. He's earning $2.65MM in his last season before free agency. The Cubs are also known to be interested; the Jays might find it's a seller's market for quality relievers.
And let the bidding begin for the services of Frasor.
I feel like these teams are going to try to lowball Toronto, but this guy is not going to be strictly a salary dump.
AA’s pretty shrewd, though, and I can’t see him getting scammed on this one. To be honest, I think it’ll be pretty interesting to see what he can pull off.
Shrewd is an understatement. Anthopolous has been a ninja with trades so far. I’m curious to see what he can pull out of his.. hat.. this time.
Shrewd is an understatement. Anthopolous has been a ninja with trades so far. I’m curious to see what he can pull out of his.. hat.. this time.
AA’s pretty shrewd, though, and I can’t see him getting scammed on this one. To be honest, I think it’ll be pretty interesting to see what he can pull off.
It’s difficult to see a deal getting done with the Twins. Their farm system isn’t very strong and Aaron Hicks or Kyle Gibson is big time overpayment. The Jays have no need for another catcher in their system so that veto’s Ramos and the Twins obviously won’t move Sano having just signed him.
Maybe the Twins deal from surplus and move prospect OF Ben Revere for Frasor. It’s not like he’ll be breaking into the Twins outfield anytime soon with Cuddyer, Span, and Young. At first glance Revere might be an overpayment, but Frasor does profile as a type B free agent already and if he closed for the Twins all year he’d likely to become Type-A.
It’s difficult to see a deal getting done with the Twins. Their farm system isn’t very strong and Aaron Hicks or Kyle Gibson is big time overpayment. The Jays have no need for another catcher in their system so that veto’s Ramos and the Twins obviously won’t move Sano having just signed him.
Maybe the Twins deal from surplus and move prospect OF Ben Revere for Frasor. It’s not like he’ll be breaking into the Twins outfield anytime soon with Cuddyer, Span, and Young. At first glance Revere might be an overpayment, but Frasor does profile as a type B free agent already and if he closed for the Twins all year he’d likely to become Type-A.
Revere gets more hype, but I could see Rene Tosoni being the guy. He’s got Revere’s skill set and hen some and has proven himself at AA already.
Revere gets more hype, but I could see Rene Tosoni being the guy. He’s got Revere’s skill set and hen some and has proven himself at AA already.
I think most sources have the Twins a top-10 farm system. Lots and lots of outfielders.
I think most sources have the Twins a top-10 farm system. Lots and lots of outfielders.
Ok this is a 32 year old reliever, not even an experienced closer were talking about here. Revere is a top 100 prospect in the entire league, even mentioning him is ridiculous. Think more along the lines of Chris Hermann.
Exactly
Signing Kevin Gregg had everybody scratching their heads, but if he gets good value for one of our closers then it’s going to look like genius. I’ve got to wonder if he somehow had the foresight to see that there wasn’t going to be a lot of closers available and decided to control the market, or if this is blind luck. Either way the Gregg signing is looking better and better.
It’s “looking better and better” until he takes the mound, in a real game, with his 83 mph, thigh high, flat fastball.
It’s not like the Jays are going to have a ton of leads to protect this year. Someone who can eat some innings, and maybe build up a little value before the trade deadline is all they want from Gregg.
Signing Kevin Gregg had everybody scratching their heads, but if he gets good value for one of our closers then it’s going to look like genius. I’ve got to wonder if he somehow had the foresight to see that there wasn’t going to be a lot of closers available and decided to control the market, or if this is blind luck. Either way the Gregg signing is looking better and better.
Toronto isnt dumping salary. Any team with a quality SS prospect can get this deal done if they throw in a little something extra like a solid A ball OF prospect.
Well obviously the Cubs aren’t dealing Starlin Castro for a reliever, and the Twins certainly aren’t strong at that position, but the Twins have outfielders in spades. ScoutingBook has Ben Revere as #60, Aaron Hicks as #16, Angel Morales at #234 overall may not be ranked as high, but he’s the same age as the extremely well regarded Hicks and played at the same level last year, vastly outplaying him. Then you have guys like Chris Parmalee, Rene Tosoni, and Joe Benson. All pretty solid bets to reach the Majors.
Well obviously the Cubs aren’t dealing Starlin Castro for a reliever, and the Twins certainly aren’t strong at that position, but the Twins have outfielders in spades. ScoutingBook has Ben Revere as #60, Aaron Hicks as #16, Angel Morales at #234 overall may not be ranked as high, but he’s the same age as the extremely well regarded Hicks and played at the same level last year, vastly outplaying him. Then you have guys like Chris Parmalee, Rene Tosoni, and Joe Benson. All pretty solid bets to reach the Majors.
Toronto isnt dumping salary. Any team with a quality SS prospect can get this deal done if they throw in a little something extra like a solid A ball OF prospect.
AA has shown he will only trade for a quality prospect. He will be more inclined to add a prospect with frasor to get a better prospect. Looking forward to what AA can get in return for frasor and eventually downs.
AA has shown he will only trade for a quality prospect. He will be more inclined to add a prospect with frasor to get a better prospect. Looking forward to what AA can get in return for frasor and eventually downs.
Something involving Delmon Young maybe?
The Jays need Delmon Young like they need another reliever.
I can’t imagine why anyone would want Delmon Young, but if that Jays would take him (they wont) it’d be a great deal for the Twins.
Are we talking about Jason Frasor or a Joakim Soria type? Really Jason Frasor isn’t the best thing ever.
I can’t imagine why anyone would want Delmon Young, but if that Jays would take him (they wont) it’d be a great deal for the Twins.
Considering the Twins major league back up outfielders consist of Kubel and Punto ( who has started 3 games in the outfield in his career) I highly doubt they would move Young. The twins have a ton of raw prospects, but none ready to compete at the major league level, none of them are even expected to start at AAA.
Just because you don’t like Delmon Young doesn’t mean you can throw his name into the hat with trade rumors. He hasn’t been linked to any trades since Gomez was traded, and after the twins signed Thome, Gardenhire insisted that he would be a bench player and Delmon would play every day
a) Twins are better without Delmon than with him. It gets Kubel in left and Thome full-time at DH. Gardenhire being incompetent doesn’t suddenly make Delmon any better.
b) Jays fan, so this isn’t me praying the Twins dump him. I assumed it would take more than Frasor, hence “involving” rather than “straight-up for”.
Well, they aren’t going to get more than Delmon, his upside at least warrants the value of a solid relief pitcher who are, really, a dime a dozen.
You have to consider there are about 80 7th/8th inning guys in Major League Baseball. 30 pitching the 7th innings, 30 pitching the 8th, and 20 pitching the 9th. Realistically, there are only about 10 guys who are true standout closers. The rest are just good 8th inning guys (who could be interchanged with dozens of other 8th inning guys).
Frasor is a good 8th inning guy who, on a desperate team, could be one of the guys who masquerades as a closer, and could probably do a fine job.
Yes. I know. Hence the “more than Frasor”. Are you always so argumentative when you agree with people?
Yes. I know. Hence the “more than Frasor”. Are you always so argumentative when you agree with people?
Well, they aren’t going to get more than Delmon, his upside at least warrants the value of a solid relief pitcher who are, really, a dime a dozen.
You have to consider there are about 80 7th/8th inning guys in Major League Baseball. 30 pitching the 7th innings, 30 pitching the 8th, and 20 pitching the 9th. Realistically, there are only about 10 guys who are true standout closers. The rest are just good 8th inning guys (who could be interchanged with dozens of other 8th inning guys).
Frasor is a good 8th inning guy who, on a desperate team, could be one of the guys who masquerades as a closer, and could probably do a fine job.
Kubel in left and Thome at DH would leave nick punto as the 4th outfielder. I doubt the Jays would trade Frasor and an experienced/major league ready outfielder, which would still put the twins with 3 potential outfielders. Had the twins kept gomez and pridie, i suppose they would attempt to consider to think about it
Dude, it’s the backup outfielder. Who cares? Sign Reed Johnson for league minimum. Problem solved.
You dont just give up on a number 1 overall pick especially when he has consistently hit .300 and had a tough year with his mom passing away. The kid has lost 30 pounds of fat over the offseason and is looking a lot more like the kid the rays drafted back in the day. Plate discipline and power are always the last thing to come to good young hitters. People who think Delmon is done may be pretty surprised this year.
Considering the Twins major league back up outfielders consist of Kubel and Punto ( who has started 3 games in the outfield in his career) I highly doubt they would move Young. The twins have a ton of raw prospects, but none ready to compete at the major league level, none of them are even expected to start at AAA.
Just because you don’t like Delmon Young doesn’t mean you can throw his name into the hat with trade rumors. He hasn’t been linked to any trades since Gomez was traded, and after the twins signed Thome, Gardenhire insisted that he would be a bench player and Delmon would play every day
Something involving Delmon Young maybe?
This is shaping up to be the perfect atmosphere for hendry to over pay once again. We have our middle infield tied up with castro (hopefully) and theriot moving over to second. we should be solid with this for the next 3-4 years I’m guessing. Does this mean we should throw a good ss prospect like Lee for a 1 year rental? Tough call but I’m saying no. The cubs have the pieces to pull this off, just should be interesting to see if Hendry scrws the goat on this one and deals high up side talent to get Frasor
I’m as big a critic of Hendry as anyone, but he really doesn’t overpay on trades often, especially when it comes to dealing young prospects. He sometimes has to dump them when they run out of options (like Felix Pie), but when’s the last time he truly gave up a top prospect? The closest I can think of is trading Ricky Nolasco to get Juan Pierre, but Nolasco was not considered to be a blue-chip prospect..solid maybe but he wasn’t special.
Lee is much more valuable to the Cubs than Nolasco ever was because they’ve invested a lot in him, both in terms of bonus and that he is the poster child prospect for them in South Korea — an area where they are very active. On top of that he is easily their best leadoff prospect, a need they never seem to be able to fill — he’s just not expendable in any way. The Cubs will hold on to him.
I sure hope so………. Just a side not here. Did you see how B Roberts may start the year on the DL and McP is thinking of bringing in a backup/starter for the middle IF? Oh boy, here come the rampant Roberts trade rumors again. Fontenot and Marshall for Roberts :D. Just getting you prepared
LOL…I’ve had enough Roberts rumors to last a lifetime. The Cubs may see an opportunity to acquire someone like Cla Meredith, though I’m not really a big fan of his.
I’m as big a critic of Hendry as anyone, but he really doesn’t overpay on trades often, especially when it comes to dealing young prospects. He sometimes has to dump them when they run out of options (like Felix Pie), but when’s the last time he truly gave up a top prospect? The closest I can think of is trading Ricky Nolasco to get Juan Pierre, but Nolasco was not considered to be a blue-chip prospect..solid maybe but he wasn’t special.
Lee is much more valuable to the Cubs than Nolasco ever was because they’ve invested a lot in him, both in terms of bonus and that he is the poster child prospect for them in South Korea — an area where they are very active. On top of that he is easily their best leadoff prospect, a need they never seem to be able to fill — he’s just not expendable in any way. The Cubs will hold on to him.
At this point, the only two options are:
-Hendry badly over-paying
-nothing getting done
To make the situation go from bad to worse, Guzman blows out his shoulder. Now with Nathan being gone, the cost of a blue chip reliever has gone way up.
I think we should all get use to the idea of Grabow and Maridad being the set-up guys for Marmol. Not exactly Chamberlain setting up Mo Riveria in the 9th
At this point, the only two options are:
-Hendry badly over-paying
-nothing getting done
To make the situation go from bad to worse, Guzman blows out his shoulder. Now with Nathan being gone, the cost of a blue chip reliever has gone way up.
I think we should all get use to the idea of Grabow and Maridad being the set-up guys for Marmol. Not exactly Chamberlain setting up Mo Riveria in the 9th
This is shaping up to be the perfect atmosphere for hendry to over pay once again. We have our middle infield tied up with castro (hopefully) and theriot moving over to second. we should be solid with this for the next 3-4 years I’m guessing. Does this mean we should throw a good ss prospect like Lee for a 1 year rental? Tough call but I’m saying no. The cubs have the pieces to pull this off, just should be interesting to see if Hendry scrws the goat on this one and deals high up side talent to get Frasor
Before anyone gets too starry-eyed on the return for Frasor consider that:
1) He’s coming off a career year, but overall he’s been pretty average
2) He’s a one year rental
3) There will be a 2.5M payroll exchange if it’s a prospect(s) only deal. That’s not insignificant when you consider it’s March and most teams are at about their budget limits.
4) The Jays have many solid relievers with no options left. That reduces their leverage as they almost have to make a deal somewhere or risk losing someone for nothing.
5) Neil Huntington, a good GM in his own right, only got Kevin Hart and Josh Harrison (a C level prospect) for his solid, lefty reliever (Grabow), –and he had to throw in an inexpensive, cost controlled 5th starter (Gorzelanny) to boot. Grabow was also sought after by other teams. So the market for that type of player isn’t as profitable as you might think.
Making these trades isn’t as simple as finding the opposing teams top-rated prospects at the position of your team’s greatest need. There is a lot more to it than that.
uhh Jason Frasor completely changed the way he pitches last year, and added an amazing change-up. Maybe you should watch the guy pitch before going off on a “now, now, everyone, before we all get too starry-eyed..” speech.
and other than their Rule 5 pick, there’s not really anyone that the Jays are going to HAVE to get rid of to simply make room.
I’m always amused by people who begin their reply with “uhhh”…as if what they are about to say is completely obvious and irrefutable — not to mention a sophmoric attempt to make the original commenter feel stupid. You can save yourself some typing and leave that out next time. I’m not impressed.
I’m also not impressed by your average fan “watching” players and thinking it gives them permission to present themselves as an authority. The numbers show that Frasor’s last season was more of an anomaly than a sign of things to come. Players don’t generally get a whole lot better at age 32. I’m not going to expect Frasor to be the exception to that rule. Statistic analysis from every reputable source expect varying degrees of regression closer to his career numbers.
right, so you haven’t watched him pitch. He turned himself from an average pitcher into an above average pitcher by adding a 3rd pitch – a very good change-up. Looking at numbers doesn’t always answer everything. Sometimes you need to actually know the person you’re talking about, instead of looking up his numbers 2 minutes before writing a post. Get over yourself.
and last time i checked, holding a very good reliever who’s either going to be a type A or type B at the end of the year when multiple teams need a good reliever doesn’t exactly take away from Toronto’s leverage.
and last time i checked, holding a very good reliever who’s either going to be a type A or type B at the end of the year when multiple teams need a good reliever doesn’t exactly take away from Toronto’s leverage.
So I should take your subjective “watching” experience over objective, advanced statistical analysis?
I’m saying he’s an entirely different pitcher. He used to have 2 pitches, a plus fastball and an okay slider. Hitters just sat on his fastball. Last year he added a very, very good change-up and it made his a completely different pitcher. I’m telling you that nowhere on baseball-reference does it mention this, but apparently you don’t get it. Telling you that he’s an entirely different pitcher because he added a 3rd pitch isn’t “subjective”. Like I said, numbers don’t tell the entire story, everytime.
Well, first of all, there is record that he’s thrown the changeup since he came into the league. Last year he threw his changeup 3.5% of the time last year.
fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1906&posit…
The new pitch he added last year appeared to be the split finger. The split finger however, didn’t rate very well. But, he was way more effective with the slider, a pitch he threw over 19% of the time last year than he had ever been before.
whoops, i meant the split finger
Frasor did not add a change-up in 2009, he has been throwing one since he started in the majors in 2004. In addition, his change-up is only league average and he throws it less than 4% of the time. He did increase his use of a Split Finger from less than 1% thrown prior to 2009 up to 11.6% in 2009. This is odd since he threw his fastball and slider (his 2 best pitches) less as a result.
I understand that he has developed a change-up, but Frasor’s stuff has never been much of an issue. It was good enough for a reliever. Two things stand out to me with Frasor, his walk rate dropped to 2.5 per 9 innings, down from about 4 wks/9 innings in his career and about 6 wks/9 innings the year before. The other thing is that his BABIP was at about 20-25 points lower than his career norm, meaning there may have been some luck involved.
That being said, throwing the changeup for strikes may have contributed to better control, but right now it’s too small a sample size to hang your hat on. Frasor needs to repeat his low walk total over a greater period of time before you can say he’s a completely different pitcher. Right now, one can easily say it was just an anomaly and that he had some luck (less batted balls fell for hits than usual last year) — especially when you throw in Smootsmacks analysis that the slider is still Frasor’s preferred secondary pitch. You can’t expect teams to compensate the Jays on the assumption that last year’s numbers override his career numbers.
fair enough, we’ll agree to disagree, i feel the jays will get a solid return though on him either way though. his almost guaranteed type B/A status + a few teams interested could drive up the price a bit.
Agreed there…I think they should get a solid return – just not the marquee names that keep getting thrown out here. But just because they likely won’t be the big names, it doesn’t mean they aren’t good prospects in their own right.
You should check out Jason Frasor’s new changeup before making such ignorant statements, it’s THE reason he was so much better. You can throw statistical analysis out the window in this case. The average fan can tell you that, let alone someone like me.
I’m always amused by people who begin their reply with “uhhh”…as if what they are about to say is completely obvious and irrefutable — not to mention a sophmoric attempt to make the original commenter feel stupid. You can save yourself some typing and leave that out next time. I’m not impressed.
I’m also not impressed by your average fan “watching” players and thinking it gives them permission to present themselves as an authority. The numbers show that Frasor’s last season was more of an anomaly than a sign of things to come. Players don’t generally get a whole lot better at age 32. I’m not going to expect Frasor to be the exception to that rule. Statistic analysis from every reputable source expect varying degrees of regression closer to his career numbers.
uhh Jason Frasor completely changed the way he pitches last year, and added an amazing change-up. Maybe you should watch the guy pitch before going off on a “now, now, everyone, before we all get too starry-eyed..” speech.
and other than their Rule 5 pick, there’s not really anyone that the Jays are going to HAVE to get rid of to simply make room.
I can’t imagine anyone see’s an A-level prospect going for Frasor. But I B- guy or a C should be a fair return. Like I said, I think Rene Tosoni would be a realistic option.
I can’t imagine anyone see’s an A-level prospect going for Frasor. But I B- guy or a C should be a fair return. Like I said, I think Rene Tosoni would be a realistic option.
Some valid points, but he’s not going to come for free either. He’s a one year rental plus a supplemental pick. That’s certainly worth a solid prospect. If he repeats last year’s performance he could get two picks, and if he underperforms or gets hurt, he could return zero, but on average, 1 pick is a reasonable expectation. He doesn’t have a huge contract or the save numbers in the recent past to justify an inflated price in arbitration, so offering arbitration shouldn’t be a major issue.
The Jays aren’t going to lose anybody significant due to options issues. They have plenty of guys with options and thinking they’ll rush to dump Frasor out of fear of losing their Rule 5 pick or Sean Henn is wishful thinking.
Some valid points, but he’s not going to come for free either. He’s a one year rental plus a supplemental pick. That’s certainly worth a solid prospect. If he repeats last year’s performance he could get two picks, and if he underperforms or gets hurt, he could return zero, but on average, 1 pick is a reasonable expectation. He doesn’t have a huge contract or the save numbers in the recent past to justify an inflated price in arbitration, so offering arbitration shouldn’t be a major issue.
The Jays aren’t going to lose anybody significant due to options issues. They have plenty of guys with options and thinking they’ll rush to dump Frasor out of fear of losing their Rule 5 pick or Sean Henn is wishful thinking.
I agree…I think the Jays will get a solid prospect. Frasor’s a quality guy who would surely become the Cubs righty half of the set-up equation. Factor in the possibility that he may bring in compensation picks adds to his value as well (as you and a couple of others have pointed out), but I’m only tempering the idea that they are going to get one of a team’s top tier prospects in return. They’ll get something worthwhile though. It just may not be what everyone is expecting.
1) I’ll give you that last year was arguably his best, however over the last three years he’s been able to hold batters to a .212/.299/.320 (Baseball Reference notes that he came out in the 8th inning most often in 2007-8 and the 9th in 2009, usually in high leverage situations) average line.
2) Only if they let him go. Even then, he ranks as a Type-B Free Agent as of right now and can very easily turn into a Type-A if he puts up anything close to what he did in 2009. Picks aren’t a sure thing, but parlaying the Sausage King into a couple of high picks can pay high dividends.
4) If Frasor goes, then a spot is open. If he doesn’t, he provides solid high leverage relief for another year. I’m not too worried about Shawn Camp, Sean Henn, or Merkin Valdez going facing waivers.
5) That’s one situation that could indeed play out. It’s not a given that it will, though.
Both the Cubs and the Twins are looking for dependable late inning guys right now, and Frasor has shown he can fit the bill. The price has gone up on him and, while I agree that there will be more to it then just pick-and-choosing prospects, you have to pay something well in order to get something good back.
The potential to get draft picks does work in the Jays favor. They will probably try to sell him as a potential Type A free agent to other teams, while other teams will counter that he is currently a Type B free agent and there’s no guarantee that will change. With Kevin Gregg and Scott Downs in the mix, Frasor picking up some saves is anything but a certainty. Repeating last year’s career numbers is unlikely, considering how volatile relief pitchers performance tends to be. At best, Toronto would have to settle for a compromise — a distinct possibility when you have a team as desperate as the Cubs seem to be. Even with some regression, he’s good enough to set up for the Cubs right now, but I expect the Jays to get a couple of decent prospects rather than anyone’s top tier guys.
And by the way, anyone with the moniker “Sausage King” is bound to be a hit in Chicago! š
Before anyone gets too starry-eyed on the return for Frasor consider that:
1) He’s coming off a career year, but overall he’s been pretty average
2) He’s a one year rental
3) There will be a 2.5M payroll exchange if it’s a prospect(s) only deal. That’s not insignificant when you consider it’s March and most teams are at about their budget limits.
4) The Jays have many solid relievers with no options left. That reduces their leverage as they almost have to make a deal somewhere or risk losing someone for nothing.
5) Neil Huntington, a good GM in his own right, only got Kevin Hart and Josh Harrison (a C level prospect) for his solid, lefty reliever (Grabow), –and he had to throw in an inexpensive, cost controlled 5th starter (Gorzelanny) to boot. Grabow was also sought after by other teams. So the market for that type of player isn’t as profitable as you might think.
Making these trades isn’t as simple as finding the opposing teams top-rated prospects at the position of your team’s greatest need. There is a lot more to it than that.
LOL. The most the Jays would be getting would be someone like Perkins or Swarzak. There’s no way the Twins would unload Hicks, Revere, or Ramos for Jason Frasor. Dream on Jays fans, dream on.
Brandon League + a prospect that was miles away from the majors and had to repeat A ball got the Jays Brandon Morrow. It’s not like strong relievers don’t have value.
Morrow had just two and a half years of service time – and therefor 4 years of team control left. Frasor will be a FA after next year. Add to that the fact that Morrow has been both more consistent and shows far greater upside than Frasor. HUGE difference.
what? I’m aware that Morrow has a lot of upside, that’s the point. I’m saying the Jays can get a lot for their relievers.
I think you just proved pastlives point.
I think you just proved pastlives point.
Frasor is likely to be Type A, lock for type B which obv adds value.
Morrow had just two and a half years of service time – and therefor 4 years of team control left. Frasor will be a FA after next year. Add to that the fact that Morrow has been both more consistent and shows far greater upside than Frasor. HUGE difference.
That depends on how you look at it. The Mariners didn’t consider Morrow to have a future as a starter. They managed to get a replacement who’s got comparable stuff, better health and a better career FIP (4.30 vs. 4.56)…and a prospect to boot. I don’t think Jack Z gets the wool pulled over his eyes as easy as you make this out to be.
Brandon League + a prospect that was miles away from the majors and had to repeat A ball got the Jays Brandon Morrow. It’s not like strong relievers don’t have value.
Pitching isn’t that big of a need for the Jays, especially #5 type starters. So Perkins or Swarzak wont happen – and you’re right, the Twins aren’t likely to give up a top-10 guy. No one would give up a top 10 guy for someone coming off one good year who is about to become a FA. But that doesn’t mean the Jays will get hosed.
Excellent. Another suitor for Frasor
Excellent. Another suitor for Frasor
Twins fans are idiots…firstly, frasor will be a type-A after the season..therefore, youre getting a great pitcher, with a great contract, along with 2 top draft picks….hence, a top prospect would be required if you want him
Not unless he has a year like last year. Which, given his track record, is anything but a guarantee.
Not unless he has a year like last year. Which, given his track record, is anything but a guarantee.
Twins fans are idiots…firstly, frasor will be a type-A after the season..therefore, youre getting a great pitcher, with a great contract, along with 2 top draft picks….hence, a top prospect would be required if you want him
Here’s some real analysis of the situation from NBC’s Hard Ball Talk
“Earlier this week the Cubs were said to be interested in Jason Frasor, and now the Twins have reportedly joined the mix for the Blue Jays’ reliever following news that Joe Nathan likely needs season-ending Tommy John surgery.
Frasor is a solid reliever coming off a career-year, but prior to posting a 2.50 ERA in 2009 he had ERAs of 4.32, 4.58, and 4.18 in the previous three seasons and his career xFIP is 4.05. He’s been talked about as a potential replacement for Nathan because he spent part of last season closing for Toronto, but based on ability rather than save totals he’s really more a setup man and the Twins have plenty of similar in-house options already.
Frasor is an impending free agent and affordable at just $2.65 million, so if the Blue Jays aren’t looking for much in return he’d be a solid addition for the Cubs or Twins. However, because he’s likely to qualify as a Type B free agent and could even jump into Type A status with a good 2010 the Blue Jays may be inclined to ask for at least as much value as a supplemental draft pick.”
Rene Tosoni is, if anything, probably a bit of an over payment.
Unless he has a brutal year, he will be a TYPE A, why is this so hard for people to understand?
Someone previous made an interesting point that the Jays could add a prospect with Frasor to upgrade that prospect.
I doubt Frasor needs to put up a 2.50ERA to become a type-A status, but anything under 3.20 would probably do. Also, his BABIP was 19 points below his career average in 2009, but was even lower in 2008.
The only knock on him was in 2009 he only converted saves at a 79% rate. Nathan in 2009 was at a 90% rate with alot more chances.
He’s gonna be used a lot more this year. He’ll probably be type A even with an ERA of 4.
Hmmm.. if a trade does happen and he was closing, probably. His career high in IP was 74 2/3 back in 2005 and he must have handled it well with a 3.25ERA, but he was 5 years younger too. On the other hand, Nathan is 36 years old in November [and when/if he returns in 2011] so age can probably be thrown out the window.
I have to agree and assume he’d be able to handle it, with some regression, but nowhere near enough for him to stay at type-B status. But I have to stick to thinking that Frasor is a very good 8th inning guy who can close out from time to time, but I dunno about a full season.
Here’s some real analysis of the situation from NBC’s Hard Ball Talk
“Earlier this week the Cubs were said to be interested in Jason Frasor, and now the Twins have reportedly joined the mix for the Blue Jays’ reliever following news that Joe Nathan likely needs season-ending Tommy John surgery.
Frasor is a solid reliever coming off a career-year, but prior to posting a 2.50 ERA in 2009 he had ERAs of 4.32, 4.58, and 4.18 in the previous three seasons and his career xFIP is 4.05. He’s been talked about as a potential replacement for Nathan because he spent part of last season closing for Toronto, but based on ability rather than save totals he’s really more a setup man and the Twins have plenty of similar in-house options already.
Frasor is an impending free agent and affordable at just $2.65 million, so if the Blue Jays aren’t looking for much in return he’d be a solid addition for the Cubs or Twins. However, because he’s likely to qualify as a Type B free agent and could even jump into Type A status with a good 2010 the Blue Jays may be inclined to ask for at least as much value as a supplemental draft pick.”
Rene Tosoni is, if anything, probably a bit of an over payment.
Who’s talking about an A prospect anyways? (aside from Starlin Castro, neither of the Twins or Cubs have any). Tosoni is intriguing, but he’s a C prospect. Alone, he isn’t worth a supplemental pick plus a year of Frasor. Tosoni plus another C like a Benson or a Slama, might be “fair”. But based on AA’s brief track record and public comments, he’ll go for quality over quantity. If there isn’t a solid B or B- name like a Revere, Ramos, Valencia, Lee, or Flaherty, I can’t see why the Jays wouldn’t hold out until the trade deadline.
Flaherty is a distinct possibility and would be a nice pickup for the Jays. Seems like an AA type of player. I can’t see the Cubs parting with Lee though because he holds unique value to them, both as their top leadoff prospect (a spot they’ve been trying to fill for 25 years) and as their best prospect from South Korea — an area where they are extremely active in –he’s their recruiting poster child. He holds too much value to the Cubs on and off the field to trade for a one year rental.
Yeah, Flaherty seems like a good match. The Jays are in no rush to ship out Frasor, so they may ask for another piece or hold out for Lee… but Flaherty is about what it “should” take. The Jays really do need some legit shortstop prospects though, so they may very well try to hold out for Lee.
I wouldn’t hold your breath on Lee. He’ll be playing Class A ball for the Cubs this year.
Fair enough, I’m not saying the Cubs should offer up Lee. Just that, in the opinion of this random internet poster, the Jays have no pressing need to deal Frasor. They may choose to hold out for a player they really want. (Any sorry smootsmack, but I doubt they want Tosoni that badly)
Nah, Tosoni alone should get it done. Holding out until the trade deadline is a negative for a couple reasons for the Jays:
1) Half a season of Frasor is not worth as much as a full season of Frasor.
2) Given his track record, and the fact that his performance last year was seemingly built on the improvement of his slider out of nowhere, his regression rate has to be pretty high. If he doesn’t repeat last years numbers, he’s essentially worthless to a contender. The Twins have 6 or 7 guys (Guerrier, Rauch, Mijares, Neshek, Crain, Slama, Delaney) who could reasonably post numbers like Frasor has his entire career (last year not withstanding).
The big things that the Jays have working against them are Frasors impending free agency, and his lack of track record to support his past season as more than a fluke. He’s a guy that’s worth a gamble for the Cubs or Twins, but presumably not a large gamble.
If the Cubs offer Flaherty, the Twins aren’t even in the conversation with Tosoni.
The Jays have no reason to believe Frasor will regress. He picked up a new pitch, he’s been consistently solid (and in the AL East no less), and is looking good this spring. Even if he goes back to something closer to his career average, they still get a supplemental pick. I have to think they’d rather take their chances with the draft pick or hope that someone gets desperate at the deadline as the injuries pile up, rather than panic and take a fringe prospect. Much better prospects have been dealt for much worse relievers at the deadline.
“If the Cubs offer Flaherty, the Twins aren’t even in the conversation with Tosoni. ”
You’re right about that! But there is no way the Cubs offer him. There is no way the Cubs get someone from a teams top 10 for Frasor.
Ok. Then there is no way the Jays don’t hold out and hope for the pick(s) or a better deal at the deadline.
They should hold him and hope he repeats last year. If he does and qualifies for Type-A, thats more than they’d get in a trade. Definitely. If I’m Alex I hold him because there is no way he’s going to get a great return for the guy.
I feel like I’m in a cartoon where Bugs Bunny suddenly switches sides to trick Daffy into reversing his side.
BB: Duck season
DD: Rabbit season
BB: Duck season
DD: Rabbit season
BB: Rabbit season
DD: Duck season
BB: Ok. (Elmer loads his gun)
The pitch differentiation algorithm is off (as has been known to happen). The description he gave of how he throws it (oddly enough, starting with a normal split finger grip, but pronating and throwing it off his middle two fingers) indicates it’s a change up. He hooked up with Doug Bochtler the offseason before, and found a grip that worked for his changeup, and really ended up committing to it (if you add the change and split columns together, you’ll see he went from using that pitch 4-5% of the time to 15%).
As for the rating, I’ve always remained skeptical of trying to isolate one pitch from another. In other words, I don’t believe it’s a coincidence that his fastball and slider increased so much in affectiveness.
obviously, this was supposed to be a reply to a smootsmack post (the one with Frasor’s fangraphs link, in particular) . that was a good dose of fail.
So your assumption is that the numbers are wrong, that it wasn’t a split finger (though, apparently he described using a split fingered-type grip…?), and that the pitch which rated poorly, was the reason for his success. This despite the numbers showing a significant improvement in his slider?
So basically, I’m supposed to assume that every number describing the guy is wrong, and that you’re right? Am I getting this correct? This is a legitimate question – I’m not trying to be a smartass.
I just to make sure I’m understanding you correctly.
If someone says “I’m throwing a changeup. I grip like this and throw like this” and it sounds like a changeup, I’m going to assume its a changeup. There are numerous articles on this. Google “Jason Frasor changeup”, to support this. With all this, and the numbers don’t show any distinction between the two pitches, yes, I’m going to assume the numbers are wrong… Well, actually, I’m going to assume the grouping and interpretation of the numbers are wrong – the numbers are what they are.
pitchf/x uses an algorithm to decide what the pitch is. It’s relying on (i assume) spin, movement and speed to decide what the pitch is. It makes sense that it would confuse these two pitches.
Pitchf/x is awesome stuff, but it’s not gospel. In this case, there is better information available. Namely, Frasor jumping up and down saying “Me! I throw a changeup! Look at my changeup!”
Of course, while typing that, I went to the pitchf/x section for Frasor, and I noticed it didn’t reference a split-finger fastball at all. It does indicate he threw his changeup about 14% last year. Mind you, it was having a hard time deciding if his slider is in fact a slider or a curveball (look at the game graphs. There’s no real difference), but that’s a separate matter. The front-page stuff must be using a different process for sorting the pitches. Either way, I’m going with the pitcher on this one.
And, no, I don’t the effectiveness of one pitch is independant of the others, like the graph can seem to imply.
Oh, and just in case you were wondering (since something seemed to put you on edge), the “good dose of fail comment” was for myself for screwing up the post due to laziness… and laziness prevented that from being too clear.
Wow. I need to reread this stuff after I write it to see if it’s coherent or not.
In short – yes, it’s my opinion the ‘numbers’ (more accurately, the labels of the numbers) are wrong in this case. My opinion is based on articles on Frasor’s changeup, what I’ve seen watching the games as well. It did get the curveball-to-slider change in 2006 right, though.
From Jason’s mouth: nationalpost.com/sports/story.html?id=2634822
He added a change up last year and it was the difference in his improvement. Being an avid Jays fan and watching as many games as I could, it was easy to tell that he was a better pitcher. I don’t see his numbers dropping too much this year, and I expect that his innings will go up.
Having watched most of the Jays’ games the last couple of years, something that doesn’t show up in any stat is Frasor’s body language – he doesn’t carry himself like a dominant reliever, and takes an age to throw every pitch, constantly walking off the mound. He’d make me nervous if he was pitching in a crucial game in September.
That said, his results improved a lot last year, particularly against righties – he held them to a .140 BA and a .389 OPS. Maybe the Cubs could use him as a specialist against Pujols & Holliday.