Some links as the weekend draws closer…
- In his organizational rankings, Dave Cameron of FanGraphs says it's a good time to be a Brewers fan and explains why 2010 is a critical year for the Angels.
- Don't expect the Giants to sign an outfielder. GM Brian Sabean told Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News that the club's right fielder will come from within the organization (Twitter link).
- The Giants have yet to announce the extensions for Jeremy Affeldt and Brian Wilson, so Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle wonders (via Twitter) if Matt Cain will get an extension of his own soon.
- MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo offers an extensive scouting report for Bryce Harper, the 17-year-old slugger whose power is "off the charts" according to one scout.
- Jason Heyward made the Braves, according to Carroll Rogers of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. They're going for it in Bobby Cox's last season in Atlanta.
- Chipper Jones would not be surprised to see the Braves lock Heyward up after the season, according to MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez (via Twitter).
- The Cardinals released ten minor leaguers, including knuckleballer Charlie Zink, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.
- Bill James tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic that he thinks players peak defensively around the age of 25.
- Jeff Moorad assured Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune that his partnership will be able to complete its purchase of the Padres without trouble.
- MLB.com's Bill Ladson reminds us that Cristian Guzman has ten and five rights.
Even though they lost a year of control possibly…This is awesome for J-Hey, the Braves, and Baseball fans such as myself!!!!!!!!
The talk was to delay his service time clock for two weeks to get an extra year of team control but if you ask me, I’d lock him up right when the season starts or even before. Something like Evan Longoria got. tons of options and incentives. Maybe like 6yrs/$18MM with 3 options worth like $13MM, $15MM, and $17MM.
I really am so happy that they made this decision though. Last season no rookie had more than 504 at-bats. J-Hey will easily pass that and really has a chance to win the Rookie of the Year.
So there are a ton of really good rookies this season. Heyward, Stanton, Santana, Valencia, Smoak, Sanchez, Manzella, Castro, Alvarez, Escobar, Davis, Brantley, Sizemore, Jackson, Posey, EY Jr., Chris Carter, Taylor, Wallace, Raynor, and Jennings. Those are just the position players. There are a ton of really good rookie pitchers as well.
How is it a great day for the Braves? Barring an affordable long-term deal, they shot themselves in the foot for not waiting a mere two weeks. Regardless of whether or not people want to see him, it’s a bad business decision.
Also, comparing names like Tommy Manzella and Danny Valencia to Jason Heyward and Mike Stanton doesn’t really work…
I didn’t compare them I simply listed rookies that have a shot at the Rookie of the year award.
I don’t think they would have made this decision if they wouldn’t lock him up. Come MorneauVP, you know that a long term deal is coming if they made the decision to bring him up to start the season. And they did. If they didn’t plan on locking him up then they might have waited two weeks or even late may to lock him up.
I agree with this. It’s not unrealistic to think that the Braves could easily do what the Twins have been doing, and buy out his arbitration years anyway…
And even some free agent years.
I’m going to stick with what I said before. 6yrs/$18MM with 3 Team Options: $11MM, $12MM, and $14MM. Also with a ton of incentives. so if the incentives reach up to $5MM for example, the Braves could be paying him $60MM over 9 seasons.
That is a bad deal deal for Heyward. If things go remotely close to plan you would be paying him:
Year 1: 500k
Year 2: 500k
Year 3: $2.0m (Super 2)
Year 4: $2.5m
Year 5: $3.5m
Year 6: $4.0m
Then you slap on TEAM options that are seriously below market value for his FA years. I know Longoria signed a similar deal (though for more money) but that just isn’t going to happen again. Longoria is consistently cited as the best deal in baseball. Heywards agent should be shot if he doesn’t secure at close to twice as much money as you are proposing.
Sure Heyward could get hurt or be ineffective (Delmon Young) but the risk is relatively low that even then he would make less money by going year to year. Top sluggers are earning $7m+ after their first arb year. Heyward could easily make $25m in years 4, 5, and 6. Tack that on to his first couple years at league minimum and 1st year arb of around $4m and I would say a 6/$30 type deal is where you start from. Maybe end up with a team friendly 6/$25m.
I wouldn’t even consider team options unless those options are much higher.
From a team’s perspective your proposal looks great. From a players perspective it is awful.
This is obviously from a team’s prespective but as a fan I want to see a team friendly contract. They wouldn’t have made this move if they weren’t going to lock him to a contract like I proposed.
year 1: $0.5MM
year 2: $0.95MM
year 3: $2.5MM
year 4: $4MM
year 5: $4.5MM
year 6: $5.5MM
Team Option: $11MM
Team Option: $11.5MM
Team Option: $14MM
You are saying you want Jason Heyward and his agent to drain the Braves of their money before he even played a full season. Evan Longoria is the perfect comparison and I can promise you that this will not be a player friendly contract. He’s 20, and hasn’t played a game in the Majors even he is the top prospect in all of Baseball.
A contract like that will NOT happen. First because no player would ever let a team buy 3 additional years of free agency and second if Heyward is as good as advertised he will make 18M in year six alone through arbitration. Heward is not going to throw away millions just to help out the braves…
If you’re right that this “will not be a player friendly contract” then you can forget about signing him, because there is ZERO chance you’re getting him locked up for half that price…
Have you ever heard of a player named Evan Longoria?
You’re right, and the players union hated that deal the second he signed it as well. Simply put, a contract like that will NEVER happen again. Guaranteed.
Maybe. But he has never played a game in the Majors. The players union will have nothing to say because as good as he will be, there is no reason to think that he won’t be the next Delmon Young.
There are plenty of reasons to think he won’t be the next Delmon Young.
bjsguess: You may have a point, but you don’t understand how the Super Two rule works and it kills your credibility. At the end of Heyward’s 2nd year, assuming he stays in the majors, he will have exactly 2.000 years of service time. The Super Two cutoff is typically around 2 years and 130 days or so, and it’s impossible to get that in just two years. I realize Heyward has a lot of hype surrounding him, but each day he’s in the majors only counts for one day of service time. His powers are limited to denting cars, not altering the space/time continuum.
Thank you Steven!
Thank you Steven!
bjsguess: You may have a point, but you don’t understand how the Super Two rule works and it kills your credibility. At the end of Heyward’s 2nd year, assuming he stays in the majors, he will have exactly 2.000 years of service time. The Super Two cutoff is typically around 2 years and 130 days or so, and it’s impossible to get that in just two years. I realize Heyward has a lot of hype surrounding him, but each day he’s in the majors only counts for one day of service time. His powers are limited to denting cars, not altering the space/time continuum.
You have absolutely got to be kidding me. You post is a joke, right? Does anyone know where he was last year, because I don’t remember him in Atlanta? Oh yeah, he was tearing the cover off the ball in the minors.
Remember how great Andy Marte was going to be, and all other third baseman should just commit seppuku? Todd Van Poppel, Bobby Hill, Pat Listach, pretty much anyone from the early 90’s. Take a look at all the players who have been Rookies of the Year, and then see how many of them are effective five years later. The attrition rate in major pro sports is astounding – almost as astounding as making it rain on this guy like he’s a stripper and you’re Pacman Jones.
As Giants fans, every season there was a Kurt Ainsworth or a Jesse Foppert that already had a CY Young award before they hit the majors, not to mention Merkin Valdez’s Rolaids Relief Man award.
He may be a very good major leauger, the numbers are not on his side, but he may be good. When he proves himself he wil get paid. In the meantime, he can live off his meal money and bonus.
If you can’t tell by my post, delaying him for two weeks is retarded. Does anyone know about the Stanford marshmallow test? The one where a 4 year old was given one marshmallow and told that if he waited 15 minutes, he could have another one thereby doubling his marshmallow bounty. The ones who waited ended up being better at life, smarter, more patient, better with women, etc. The ones who didn’t wait were petulant, troubled, had low self esteem, uneducated and unsuccessful.
The Braves can’t wait for their marshmallow.
it’s not like the braves are a small market team and won’t have the money for this in the long run. when you’ve got a guy like this you make sure you can keep them around like your life depended upon it. If the Braves want to be successful they have to start winning right from the start,otherwise last year will start all over again. This guy helps with that. And with success comes more fans which means more money coming in to help pay for this guy and when Jurrjens, Hanson, Escobar, and McCann all need extensions. Not gonna be cheap but they’ll get it done
But they can keep him around. There is a process called arbitration.
good point but who enjoys arbitration? I say give him a year to see how he does and then buy out his arb years and avoid all the super two bu!!$h!t
But they can keep him around. There is a process called arbitration.
it’s not like the braves are a small market team and won’t have the money for this in the long run. when you’ve got a guy like this you make sure you can keep them around like your life depended upon it. If the Braves want to be successful they have to start winning right from the start,otherwise last year will start all over again. This guy helps with that. And with success comes more fans which means more money coming in to help pay for this guy and when Jurrjens, Hanson, Escobar, and McCann all need extensions. Not gonna be cheap but they’ll get it done
Listen, I wasn’t saying that they should have delayed end of story, I said that if they didn’t delay him (which they obviously didn’t) they really have to make the right decision in terms of locking him up.
I just don’t think people can say that he deserves more than I proposed. You obviously think he deserves less but I was trying to explain to the guys up top that he hasn’t ever played a game in the Majors yet but if things go well the first month of the season or so, they need to lock him up.
You’re wrong. I don’t know what he deserves. I think it’s safe to say no one does. He hasn’t played yet. Things could go well for six years, and he’s still a Brave.
Market size means nothing. No team can afford to make mistakes with money and locking a player up who may not amount to much, leaving a GM with a sunk cost and decision to make if he doesn’t perform well. Two or three years into his career, if he’s a valuable player, then lock him up – I’m all for that – but to do so now is premature.
First of all, when I say “lock him up now”, I don’t mean today. I mean sometime during or at the end of the season. If he turns out to be the Jason Heyward that we all expect that is.
First of all, when I say “lock him up now”, I don’t mean today. I mean sometime during or at the end of the season. If he turns out to be the Jason Heyward that we all expect that is.
You’re wrong. I don’t know what he deserves. I think it’s safe to say no one does. He hasn’t played yet. Things could go well for six years, and he’s still a Brave.
Market size means nothing. No team can afford to make mistakes with money and locking a player up who may not amount to much, leaving a GM with a sunk cost and decision to make if he doesn’t perform well. Two or three years into his career, if he’s a valuable player, then lock him up – I’m all for that – but to do so now is premature.
Listen, I wasn’t saying that they should have delayed end of story, I said that if they didn’t delay him (which they obviously didn’t) they really have to make the right decision in terms of locking him up.
I just don’t think people can say that he deserves more than I proposed. You obviously think he deserves less but I was trying to explain to the guys up top that he hasn’t ever played a game in the Majors yet but if things go well the first month of the season or so, they need to lock him up.
Barring an affordable long-term deal? Waiting 2 weeks gives them 1 year, waiting 2 months gives them that 1 year as well as 25%(his worth) – .4 mil. Braves will get that extension.
Plus, Braves now get an extra two months. Waiting for those 2 weeks wouldn’t be smart because they would want to win and they will get that extension… 88% chance they will. And that percentage is being fair.
YES! I drafter Heyward for Fantasy, I knew he would make the team!
Lol, Me two.
Lol, Me two.
not sure I buy the whole “defensive peak at 25” thing. lots of guys can still move around past that age and numbers can prove that. thats kind of odd to say in my opinion. my view of it is you either have it or you never had it all and if you have it, its the last thing to go. some players go their whole career as defensive genious with no other glaring skills
That surprised me as well. I wonder if fielding has much more to do with raw athletic ability than knowledge that is gleaned through experience.
One thing I’ve noticed that kids that are projected to be glove guys at young ages tend to remain glove guys. You don’t see often a highly touted defensive wiz in the minors who suddenly can’t field a grounder. On the other hand, there are tons of great sluggers in the minors that just can’t figure out ML pitching.
My theory is that the game (from a defensive perspective) doesn’t change a whole lot between the minors and the bigs. Sure guys hit the ball harder, baserunners may be a little quicker, but it’s all basically the same thing. Compare that to hitting or pitching where the the gap between the minors and the pros is pretty vast.
So, maybe a typical baseball players physical peak is around 25. Since fielding is more about raw ability we see a corresponding peak at that age. However, with hitters and pitchers they generally don’t perform at peak levels at their physical peak because they lack the experience and maturity at age 25. They are just starting their physical decline when they reach their hitting/pitching peak at 28-31.
Wow, am I glad I picked Heyward up in the FA…he’s on my bench now, we’ll see how he does in a couple weeks into the season before I start him as a Util guy over Butler or over Bruce in RF.
Charlie Hough, Charlie Haeger, Charlie Zink… some weird connection with the name Charlie and the inclination to throw a knuckleball?
Shame he’s not succeeding at the major league level.. maybe the next knuckler we see is the 16 year old japanese girl?
Charlie Wakefield…
Wait.
Jason Heyward…#22.
Great to see Heyward make the team. He has been having a very nice spring training. Sure McLouth’s horrible spring training helped make the decision even easier.
I’m curious as to what an extension for Cain would look like. He’s already signed through ’11 (via a $6.25M club option that is sure to be exercised), so what would the Giants be paying him for his first free agent years? $10M+ per anum sound about right?
Here is a situation where an extention is prudent. He has performed well the last two years (’08 record was the Giants fault, he had a solid ERA).
Gil Meche got 5/55 from the Royals a couple years back in free agency. Cain said he loves playing for the Giants. I think 5/55mm is a good number.
Here is a situation where an extention is prudent. He has performed well the last two years (’08 record was the Giants fault, he had a solid ERA).
Gil Meche got 5/55 from the Royals a couple years back in free agency. Cain said he loves playing for the Giants. I think 5/55mm is a good number.
I’m curious as to what an extension for Cain would look like. He’s already signed through ’11 (via a $6.25M club option that is sure to be exercised), so what would the Giants be paying him for his first free agent years? $10M+ per anum sound about right?
I would love to see them lock up Cain.
I think a gamer like Cain is worth about 10 mil a year. Hell, if they are gonna pay Zito between 18 and 23 mil, they might as well give Cain 10. After Cain, lock up The Panda for 6 or 7 years. Why not?
I think a gamer like Cain is worth about 10 mil a year. Hell, if they are gonna pay Zito between 18 and 23 mil, they might as well give Cain 10. After Cain, lock up The Panda for 6 or 7 years. Why not?
I just heard of this new invention called money.
I just heard of this new invention called money.
This Heyward thing will turn out to be one of the most bone-headed moves made in a long time. The value over a few weeks time is insignificant (when compared vs a replacement level player). Throw in the fact that his projections, at least initially, will be at replacement level and it makes the decision that much more baffling.
Braves fans rejoice today. Enjoy the next few weeks. We’ll see you in 2 years when his paycheck goes from $500k to $5m because you HAD to play him for two weeks at the beginning of the year.
Its not going to matter once he signs a long-term deal that buys out his arbitration years and some years of free agency.
Its not going to matter once he signs a long-term deal that buys out his arbitration years and some years of free agency.
You don’t seem to understand that these two weeks won’t matter after they lock him up. Plus, do you know what “Super two” is? It seems like you are shoving that aside.
You don’t seem to understand that these two weeks won’t matter after they lock him up. Plus, do you know what “Super two” is? It seems like you are shoving that aside.
This Heyward thing will turn out to be one of the most bone-headed moves made in a long time. The value over a few weeks time is insignificant (when compared vs a replacement level player). Throw in the fact that his projections, at least initially, will be at replacement level and it makes the decision that much more baffling.
Braves fans rejoice today. Enjoy the next few weeks. We’ll see you in 2 years when his paycheck goes from $500k to $5m because you HAD to play him for two weeks at the beginning of the year.
Cain is getting $4.25MM this season and a Club Option for ’11 so maybe they buy out 2 or 3 years after that and just pay him the 6.25MM next season. I’ll say 5yrs/$26MM.
What?
I think kind of like certain deals that pay after one’s contract is up. So maybe they pay him like this,
his $4.25MM this season
his $6.25MM next season
so no change in that…
and then something like $8MM in 2012, $9.5MM in 2013, and then something like a club option for 2014 worth something like $12MM with a $1MM buyout.
I think kind of like certain deals that pay after one’s contract is up. So maybe they pay him like this,
his $4.25MM this season
his $6.25MM next season
so no change in that…
and then something like $8MM in 2012, $9.5MM in 2013, and then something like a club option for 2014 worth something like $12MM with a $1MM buyout.
What?
Cain is getting $4.25MM this season and a Club Option for ’11 so maybe they buy out 2 or 3 years after that and just pay him the 6.25MM next season. I’ll say 5yrs/$26MM.
There seems to be some confusion as to the effect that this decision will have financially. Assuming Heyward stays on the Braves all year this is how his salary will break down:
2010: Team controlled
2011: Team controlled
2012: Team controlled
2013: Arb 1
2014: Arb 2
2015: Arb 3
If they waited a couple weeks then Heyward would have likely become a Super 2 player:
2010: Team controlled
2011: Team controlled
2012: Team controlled
2013: Arb 1
2014: Arb 2
2015: Arb 3
2016: Arb 4
If they waited until June it would be:
2010: Team controlled
2011: Team controlled
2012: Team controlled
2013: Team controlled
2014: Arb 1
2015: Arb 2
2016: Arb 3
So the Braves are sacrificing an additional arbitration year at the end of Heyward’s contract for a couple weeks. It won’t be that terrible on a salary per year basis, since that last arbitration year would likely be extremely expensive anyways (if Heyward pans out). But having Heyward at one year for a huge price is better than a multi-year deal at that price (which is likely what the Braves will have to give Heyward if they want to have him on the team for 2016).
The real money lost here is by not waiting until June. This decision could end up costing them nearly $20M more down the line than if they waited until June.
I think the Braves know what they are doing and when it’s all said and done I think they will lock him up to a deal that covers all of those 6 or 7 seasons at least.
I think the Braves know what they are doing and when it’s all said and done I think they will lock him up to a deal that covers all of those 6 or 7 seasons at least.
There seems to be some confusion as to the effect that this decision will have financially. Assuming Heyward stays on the Braves all year this is how his salary will break down:
2010: Team controlled
2011: Team controlled
2012: Team controlled
2013: Arb 1
2014: Arb 2
2015: Arb 3
If they waited a couple weeks then Heyward would have likely become a Super 2 player:
2010: Team controlled
2011: Team controlled
2012: Team controlled
2013: Arb 1
2014: Arb 2
2015: Arb 3
2016: Arb 4
If they waited until June it would be:
2010: Team controlled
2011: Team controlled
2012: Team controlled
2013: Team controlled
2014: Arb 1
2015: Arb 2
2016: Arb 3
So the Braves are sacrificing an additional arbitration year at the end of Heyward’s contract for a couple weeks. It won’t be that terrible on a salary per year basis, since that last arbitration year would likely be extremely expensive anyways (if Heyward pans out). But having Heyward at one year for a huge price is better than a multi-year deal at that price (which is likely what the Braves will have to give Heyward if they want to have him on the team for 2016).
The real money lost here is by not waiting until June. This decision could end up costing them nearly $20M more down the line than if they waited until June.
Will the Nats even be able to sign this kid harper?
Will the Nats even be able to sign this kid harper?
I want to win now. Worry about six years from now in about six years.