The Chicago Tribune's Paul Sullivan suggests that unless the Cubs have success in 2010, the team's roster could face a dramatic overhaul next winter. Another disappointing season like their 83-78 performance in 2009 could lead to a rebuild, which must just thrill fans of a team has gone over a century without a World Series title.
Sullivan notes that the Cubs' core of stars are all in their 30's, so let's take a look at the ones perhaps most likely to leave Chicago should the team struggle next season. Manager Lou Piniella is on the last year of his contract, and would almost certainly not stick around for a lengthy rebuild. Ted Lilly and Derrek Lee are free agents, and Lee has already said he doesn't want to begin negotiations on an extension during the season. Perhaps the most intriguing case is that of Aramis Ramirez, who has the option of voiding his contract after the season or remaining with Chicago and earning $14.6MM in 2011. (MLBTR's Tim Dierkes broke down Ramirez's situation last month.)
On the surface, the Cubs losing three of their top players and their veteran manager doesn't look like good news. But, if the worst happened and all four left, the Cubs would suddenly be left with a lot of open money with Lee, Lilly and Ramirez all off of the books. The trio is set to earn a combined $40.75MM in 2010 according to Cot's Baseball Contracts, and if Ramirez opted out of his contract, that would free up the $14.6MM owed to him in 2011 and the possible $16MM that he could earn in 2012 should he reach his vesting options.
The Cubs would still have a lot of money tied up in the likes of Alfonso Soriano, Ryan Dempster and Carlos Zambrano in the short-term. But, with the Lee/Lilly/Ramirez millions to spend and a minor league system ranked seventh in baseball by ESPN's Keith Law, a rebuilding process under a new manager (and probably a new general manager) might not be too long or painful. It could give Chicago a chance to invest in some younger talent rather than re-sign Lee or Lilly.
7th according to BA? Impressive.
Up from I believe 26th last year.
OH CARLOS IT’S YOU!
<=== 4 and 20 š
I'll be stopping in the TCR chatroom this season, man. Hope to see you there.
I look at the Cubs and I see a team that is a solid one but far from Championship.
The are old for the most part with no real young studs.
I really think a complete overhaul is needed soon
As much as I love all four, let them walk. Get rid of Hendry. Get rid of Kenney. Bring in DePodesta and Alderson. It’s time for the Ricketts Era to truly begin in the offseason of 2010.
Something of note that might not be known to a lot of Cubs fans is that Ricketts is a supporter and believer in sabremetrics. He used to read Bill James’ books in college while playing fantasy baseball.
Maybe we can nab Kevin Towers.
Absolutely! He’d be a perfect choice to rebuild and groom Maddux.
Anyone see Ryne Sandberg as the next coach? If we are rebuilding, he has coached these guys up through the system, maybe he’s our chosen one?
Well if results aren’t good mid-season I’d start then. But if they had the rebuilding plan in mind then the Marlon Byrd signing was certainly worth it.
Eh, even in his final year, I think he earns something like $6MM. A team with the market size/payroll of Chicago can stomach Marlon Byrd as a $6MM 4th outfielder at age 35, especially if talent like Vitters, Castro, the Jacksons, and Cashner pan out. Not ideal, but bearable.
If “the Jackson’s” pan out, which they will if you will, Byrd has to be traded. Brett Jackson is a Center Fielder.
Eh, I’m sure they’ll try. But there is no reason they can’t afford to pay Byrd that contract to be a 4th outfielder.
And for those that don’t know, the other Jackson is Jay, no relation… hah.
If they do rebuild, they need to not make the mistakes that Neal Huntington made.
And they need to get rid of Hendry before he collects on the draft picks gained from losing Ramirez, Lee, and Lilly, all of which will be type A free agents and, barring injury, would all likely decline arbitration.
How does it work if Ramirez declines his option? Do they get picks and will arb be a possibility at all?
If he declines his option he becomes a free agent like any other.
Well, as an alternative, Byrd could be the starting RF. I would think they could make Colvin the #4 in Byrd’s last year, or, as Elsewhere said, he could be a 4th.
i would hope that by the time Byrd is in his contract year, Colvin is the starting RF and the 35-year-old Byrd is playing 4th OF. Colvin’s definitely got the chops, and by 2012, he’ll be more than ready. Just hope bad management doesn’t keep him on the bench and Byrd on the field.
I wonder if they would give Troy Glaus a look if he puts up a successful season in Atlanta.
Glaus and Laroche could probably be had for the price of Ramirez by himself.
I doubt it. If the Cubs are going to shuttle Ramirez at the trade deadline it’s going to be for prospects that compliment the core of Vitters, Castro, Hak-Ju Lee, the Jacksons, and Cashner.
Maybe they sign a short term stop gap and then sign either Gonzalez, Howard, or Fielder when they hit the open market.
Since there is no clear cut prospect for the future of 1B, I can see something like that happening. Any of those three would be a solid anchor with which to build what appears to be a talented young team around, though I would prefer Gonzales, Fielder, then Howard in that order.
Edit: Though, truthfully, I wouldn’t be surprised if they resigned D-Lee out of the trio of Lee, Ramirez, and Lilly, especially if he has a decent 2010. A 2-3 year deal at a “hometown” discount rate of $5-7MM/year like Helton signed would be fine by me.
I’m going to disagree disrespectfully (in the opposite order in other words). Howard has a little bit of Cub in him. I don’t know I just can see him in a Cubs Uniform.
Howard grew up in St. Louis and is a bit of a homer. Doubt it.
Perfect 1B fits for the Cubs:
Daric Barton, Dan Johnson, Travis Ishikawa, Casey Kotchman.
I guarantee it will be one of these 4 at some point by 2012…………
Your “guarantee” is worthless….why bother?
Uh no, my opinion is respected by all 3 members of my immediate family………. !!!!
Howard won’t be in St. Louis. They won’t be replacing Pujols, because he’s staying. Howard is every bit the good guy on your team and in your community that Lee is. Chicago would be close enough to St. Louis for him. They’d do well to get him if they can.
Maybe $7-9, but I don’t think Lee would go from $10 million+ to half of that if he puts up good numbers and plays his typical defense.
Well, someone a while back had predicted the 2012 lineup would involve Vitters at 3B and Rammy at 1B. Perhaps? Otherwise, yeah, it would have to be a FA move.
How about Poulos at first & ARod at 3rd.
The Cubs need to win a World Series.
That’s exactly what my great-grandfather always used to say!
No surprise here. The Cubs “window” opened in 2007, and it’ll probably be closed by the end of the season. I like DLee and Lilly(they’ve been the best position player and pitcher for the Cubs during their contracts, respectfully), but if the 2010 team doesn’t somewhat resemble a legit contender, the front office should just blow the whole thing up. No need in overpaying aging veterans when you can build towards the future. Of course, I expect Jim Hendry to completely screw up everything…
Its preety simple the cubs gave matrlon byrd a 3 year deal so brett jackson can develop in the minors also after fukodome is gone i think that tyler colvin will take over right field. There first base isnt so great in the minors so they might give d-lee a two year deal and for aramis i also think he needs a 2 year deal so josh vittres can dvelop a little more. By 2013 we should have a bunch of young players including starlin castro.
unless they are a realllly strong contender this year, i say trade lee at the trade deadline for some good prospects and probably sign a younger 1B in the offseason cause the cubs dont really have a really good 1B option. idk if hoff or lahair can be full time 1B. the best 1B they have is Rebel Ridling who had decent numbers at Peoria last year with 16 HR 97 RBI and a .310 AVG.
but in the next 3 years, Vitters, Jay and Brett Jackson, Colvin, Castro, and Cashner should probably all be starters by then.
Well, this also assumes they will all pan out. Really, how many big-name players have the Cubs grown? Think about the core from the last 3 years. Theriot, Marmol, Zambrano, Soto, and a bunch of trade and FA guys. They haven’t been the luckiest prospect groomers (see: Pie, Patterson).
Really, just think if ONE of those alleged CFs of the future had panned out. Both could hit lefty, play CF, and would have meant Fukudome played in RF last year, and the Bradley thing never would have been an occurrence.
not sure about lahair, but hoffpauir is pretty much quadruple-A at best.
They said that about Nelson Cruz, Ryan Ludwick, and Carlos Pena too. Sometime these guys just need to move to the right organization.
Tim goes under the moniker of Mark Polishuk now? Nice try, Tim!
I think they would still suck because is Jim Hendry probably the worst GM in baseball right now?
Damn, I can’t believe people are talking about talent but forgot to mention how they dished off Jake Fox. He was looking like a great young player: .409 BA with pop in about 200 PA’s in AAA last year.
Uhh…huh? He’s 28, which isn’t young. He wasn’t a good contact hitter, and played below-average defense at multiple positions. He is a GREAT DH, but nothing else, really. I think they tried to get more for him but it wasn’t happening.
Gotta agree on this. Fox is a potentially fine hitter, but not a great one. And his best position is DH. And with the way people have come around to including defense in player value, that doesn’t give him tons of worth.
The Cubs minor league system gets overrated constantly. What great everyday player have they developed over the past 10 years? Yeah, that’s right, nobody.
I couldn’t agree more. I was surprised to hear that they were ranked so highly by Law, so I started looking into their system. I really don’t get it. They have a group of highly touted guys, but they always seem to have guys that are supposedly great according to guys like Law who never pan out. I’ll believe it when I see it because big market teams tend to have overrated farm systems IMO.
Because big-market teams only have to develop a prospect until he is hyped enough to flip for a veteran…………….
There’s no impetus for a big-market team to build a good and efficient farm system when they can just keep throwing money at FAs.
A Cardinal fan who dismisses Law because he rates their system at the bottom (where it belongs)? Shocking!
The farm system does belong there, as we have one of the best 2-3 teams in the NL. I am fine with it, since Luhnow knows what the hell he is doing apparently, but how do you explain the jump from the mid 20’s to #7 for the Cubbies? There’s no impact talent there besides maybe Castro, and he’s questionable.
No impact talent? We may not have the Jason Heywards or Stephen Strasburgs of the world but we have plenty of talent in the minors. I’m not sure why you consider Castro questionable.. The jump is due to the fact that we have alot of good talent with a lot of upside. We have guys like Andrew Cashner and Jay Jackson that have continued to improve and are close to making the show. Brett Jackson has surprised many people with what he did last year. If Hak-Ju Lee performs nearly as well as he did last year than he surely will be a top 100 prospect. Quality depth is really what contributed to our ranking.
I agree. The Cubs system has some impact talent, some depth, and some younger talent ready to break out this year.
Hak-Ju Lee is definitely a guy to watch this year. I would add these guys to the watch list: Dae Un Rhee who should be fully recovered and looked like the Cubs best Cubs pitching prospect a couple seasons ago. He’s throwing harder than ever this offseason and already has a plus curve and change. Jeffrey Antigua, a 19 year old lefty who is both polished and has good stuff. He did well as a teenager at Peoria. There’s Chris Carpenter, a 1st round talent who dropped in the draft because of health reasons but put together a solid, healthy season last year. Then there’s Rafael Dolis, who started hitting 100 mph to go with an 87 mph slider after an adjustment to his delivery, and who the Cubs are hoping can stick as a starter. I also like Kyler Burke, an athletic, toolsy guy with plate discipline who broke out a bit last season. If he builds on that and can move up a couple levels, he’ll start to draw some attention as well. If any of these guys can show progress we can expect the Cubs system to take yet another jump by next year. A lot of ifs and maybes, but the Cubs didn’t even have ifs and maybes 3-4 years ago. There is excitement and potential up and down the system for the first time in many, many years.
I agree. The Cubs system has some impact talent, some depth, and some younger talent ready to break out this year.
Hak-Ju Lee is definitely a guy to watch this year. I would add these guys to the watch list: Dae Un Rhee who should be fully recovered and looked like the Cubs best Cubs pitching prospect a couple seasons ago. He’s throwing harder than ever this offseason and already has a plus curve and change. Jeffrey Antigua, a 19 year old lefty who is both polished and has good stuff. He did well as a teenager at Peoria. There’s Chris Carpenter, a 1st round talent who dropped in the draft because of health reasons but put together a solid, healthy season last year. Then there’s Rafael Dolis, who started hitting 100 mph to go with an 87 mph slider after an adjustment to his delivery, and who the Cubs are hoping can stick as a starter. I also like Kyler Burke, an athletic, toolsy guy with plate discipline who broke out a bit last season. If he builds on that and can move up a couple levels, he’ll start to draw some attention as well. If any of these guys can show progress we can expect the Cubs system to take yet another jump by next year. A lot of ifs and maybes, but the Cubs didn’t even have ifs and maybes 3-4 years ago. There is excitement and potential up and down the system for the first time in many, many years.
I disagree. There is impact talent at the top. Castro, Jackson, Vitters, and Cashner are all potential impact talents. Each has been rated #1 by at least one system or another atop the Cubs prospect rankings. Talent is a tricky thing though and it doesn’t always translate into major league production, but if you’re talking strictly talent it’s definitely there. Even if a couple of those guys don’t make it, there is some more talent coming down the pipeline poised for breakout years. It is a big jump from #20 to #7 and I wouldn’t have been bold enough to rank them that high, but the overall notion that the Cubs system is rising is a universal one (with the exception of most Cardinals fans), it isn’t just KLaw. Pretty much every unbiased source out there – ranging from scouting based lists like BA to statistics based lists like BP and Fangraphs have acknowledged that the Cubs system has taken a significant turn upward.
I disagree. There is impact talent at the top. Castro, Jackson, Vitters, and Cashner are all potential impact talents. Each has been rated #1 by at least one system or another atop the Cubs prospect rankings. Talent is a tricky thing though and it doesn’t always translate into major league production, but if you’re talking strictly talent it’s definitely there. Even if a couple of those guys don’t make it, there is some more talent coming down the pipeline poised for breakout years. It is a big jump from #20 to #7 and I wouldn’t have been bold enough to rank them that high, but the overall notion that the Cubs system is rising is a universal one (with the exception of most Cardinals fans), it isn’t just KLaw. Pretty much every unbiased source out there – ranging from scouting based lists like BA to statistics based lists like BP and Fangraphs have acknowledged that the Cubs system has taken a significant turn upward.
im really getting sick of people dissing the cardinal farm system. Yeah it sucks. Yeah its a bottom 5. But who cares. The core players of guys like wainwright-pujols-holliday-ludwick-carpenter-molina-etc etc are all locked up for atleast the next 2 full seasons. Farm system rankings have about the same life as mashed potatoes. Their always changing when people completely blow up or make it to the bigs or whatever. its a pretty good situation actually, the cardinals have almost 3+ years before they will actually need the farm to produce a allstar player again. So cool it on the diss.
Fair enough…but this thread began with a negative cliche directed toward the Cubs system. Sometimes I get sick of that as well…this time I decided to address it. I’m okay with a well thought out comment directed against the Cubs, but that wasn’t the case here. If a Cards fan is going to come on to troll, they should expect a response from time to time.
but most of the cubs prospects are a few years away and below AA. Lee Jackson Vitters Cashner Castro, Jay Jackson, Riding, Flahtery and the others all started aat or below AA in the 2009 season. They have some good prospects that could turn into everyday players, with a few like Hak Ju Lee Castro Vitters and maybe Cashner turning into allstars at some point. I dont expect any of them to be superstars but almost everyone expects good players to allstars from a couple of them.
So because they haven’t developed a position prospect (I guess a rookie of the year in Soto and a solid SS in Theriot doesn’t count?) in the recent past it means they won’t ever develop one in the future? Brilliant deduction. How long did it take you to think of that?
There’s an entirely different staff in place when it comes to scouting and development, starting at the top with Tim Wilken, who has a proven record of drafting future major leaguers. Not coincidentally, he was hired 3 years ago and every one of the Cubs touted prospects have been signed during this period. Hendry and McPhail were responsible for drafting high upside guys with low baseball skills for the past decade. Yet, because they drafting poorly it means that even though somebody completely different, with a different staff, is doing it now they are bound to the history of their predecessors? Where’s the logic there? Yeah, that’s right…there is none.
Keep dreaming for a miracle, crunchy1. It may happen in the next 100 years!
How original! Did you think of that all by yourself too? Most of us Cub fans are at least 110 years old, so we remember that last WS and every heartbreak since. We’ve been pining for one every year since to give our lives some sort of meaning. Whenever the Cubs aren’t on, we weave ourselves a coccoon and stay there until the next game starts…this is how we are able to live so long.
Oh yeah, and don’t bother responding to my actual post…you know, the one where I rendered your original comment irrelevant.
Why would he respond? Half your post just mocks the person you are talking to. It’s pathetic.
Actually he did respond. It was just the usual lame stuff about the Cubs not winning a WS in 100 years and nothing to do with the topic being discussed. A response that is both unoriginal and completely irrelevant…that’s what I would call pathetic. Maybe he shouldn’t troll if he isn’t prepared to back up his comments.
Hendry has to go. If Sandberg does well this year and Lou goes, it’s Ryno’s job. I pray Ramirez opts out; he’s good, but he isn’t sub-$15 million good. I want Lee to stay because there’s nothing else for them at 1B. Lilly is getting up there in age, and they have enough SP depth to let him go.
If they kept Lee at similar money, then got $25-30 million freed up by letting the other 2 walk (plus the $ of Hendry and Lou, minus the replacements), then they could sign a stopgap 3B like Cantu, Atkins, or Beltre (if Atkins or Beltre are let go from their options) until Vitters is ready.
The SP pool is fairly deep to replace Lilly, though the top talent is kinda weak if Beckett and Lee resign, but they could resign Lilly at less money or look at someone like Correia, Arroyo, Harang, or Vazquez.
TY to MLBTR for having the FA list available for us!
Im a cubs fans so im not going to jump on jim hendry at all. I dont understand people wanting A-Ram to opt out. He is the best hitter on the cubs. Just look at what he has did since he joined them.
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
2004 145 547 99 174 32 1 36 103 49 62 0 2 .318 .373 .578 .951
2005 123 463 72 140 30 0 31 92 35 60 0 1 .302 .358 .568 .926
2006 157 594 93 173 38 4 38 119 50 63 2 1 .291 .352 .561 .913
2007 132 506 72 157 35 4 26 101 43 66 0 0 .310 .366 .549 .915
2008 149 554 97 160 44 1 27 111 74 94 2 2 .289 .380 .518 .898
2009 82 306 46 97 14 1 15 65 28 43 2 1 .317 .389 .516 .905
If he wouldnt have gotten hurt last year. He would have put of the same numbers he always does. Vitters probally wont be ready for a couple more years. I would like to have Adrian, Price or Ryan, but looking at next year. Let D-Lee walk and what would be wrong with say Carlos Pena. I know not a high AVG. but we are to right handed and he is a big time Power Hitting lefty. He wont cost as much to sign and then you can use the extra to find someone to replace lilly and try to get a number 2 pitcher to go with Z if he every gets his head on straight. The cubs of talent in the minors as long as they dont rush them like they did with patterson or pie or just give up on them like they did those 2. Anyway was as far as this year goes. There in fine shape. The cards after the big 2 in their rotation who is there and the same goes with there lineup. The brewers samething as last year No pitching and the lineup is got weaker. The reds have promise but if harang pitches like the last couple of season and well bronson arroyo is bronson arroyo, you just dont know what your going to get. Their lineup is a little weak also. They wont fill their promise this year. The pirates are the pirates. No worries there. So the cubs are not in bad shape for this year. I know a little of topic but. Just a huge A-Ram fan and he needs to hang around for a while
60million coming off the books can mean a lot of good things. Sign Cliff lee and Sign Carlos Pena. 6/140 for lee and 3/40 for pena. that could dramatically change the cubs. Maybe throw in a low-key signing like brandon inge or someone as a stop gap until vitters is ready.
While I’m definitely an advocate of both of those guys, and love their games, they both scare me a lot. These long term deals are what have killed the Cubs in recent years. Granted, it can be argued that it is more about, who the long term deals are given to, but I think long term deals can get us in trouble. We have a lot of depth in the minors for these positions and I think that signing Lee can only help our pitching staff. However, signing Pena would be a big mistake, IMO. I believe that plan for the Cubs will be going with Aram moving over to 1b, and Vitters going to 3b, or vice versa. It sounds solid, except for the possible wrench if they move Vitters to left, then throw Soriano at 1b, which is very possible with his legs deteriorating and his large deal. Just thoughts
As a Cub fan, I can see Hendry screwing this up in 2 possible ways.
1. Signing all the aging veterans to long term deals for big $$$, with no trade clauses.
2. Not trading them for prospects, letting them walk after the season and getting nothing but a few draft picks.
Hopefully, a new G.M. will be in place by then to make those calls.
I like D. Lee, Aramis and Lilly but I think anything longer than 2 year deals for any of them would be a mistake.
your gonna have to wait atleast 2 more years until hendry’s contract with the cubs is over. BY then, gregg maddux will probably become fulltime GM. And he’s an ex-boras client so hopefully he knows a thing or 2 about money.
I’m going to have to agree here. Hendry isn’t the guy who does the rebuilding. Building from within hasn’t been his strength. Trading for prospects hasn’t been a strength. He’s decent at getting under the radar guys like Mike Fontenot, Jose Ceda, and Kyler Burke but he doesn’t land those difference makers. The Cubs are going to get someone in who can bring in better talent. I like the idea of prying Kevin Towers loose from the Yankees to serve as a mentor for Maddux until he’s ready.
if the cubs are out of the race im sure that lilly an experienced lefty as a 2-3 starter for any team, Lee and Ramirez both power hitters of around 300 ba 100 rbi and 30 +hrs each could rake us in some younger solid peices or to put our farm through the roof
too bad lee and ramirez both have no trade clauses?
If you were asking if they did, the answer is yes. Also, I think that if they fall out of contention, and the Cubs offer them the opportunity to play for a team they enjoy, say LA or San Diego for Lee, and maybe a southern team for Ramirez, ala Texas or one of those teams, perhaps they would waive their NTC’s. All speculation of course
teams with $120,000,000+ don’t rebuild.
Im all for a rebuild after the season if they dont do well. With money coming off the books maybe we can sign a cantu and pena for 2-3 years and trade someone like a fukudome, altough he has a no trade clause. If they do bad there is no reason not to trade lilly or lee at the deadline IF they are doing well. If lilly is pushed back becasue of injury or doesnt sart well and dlee has a dwon year let them walk. Why keep aging vets/the same exact core if its not producing. It only gets a year older. In two years we could see Lee Ramirez Lilly , Silva, Fukudome, Nady, Fontenot, Baker, Grabow, Lou and Hendry all be gone and Byrd and Dempster in their last years. By then our payroll will go down and hopefully our prospects are ready and pan out. If we trade threwe guys now that may be gone after next season anyway we can get major league ready prospects to take over next year and the rebuilding might only take 2-3 years. If we do rebuild then we can build a dynasty like the redsox. Look at them they have good prospects and good FA. Ricketts already said he wanted to put more money into scouting and prospects and less into FA to build a solid team for many years, not for 5 years like our team may have now with aging veterans with huge contracts
A lot depends on Gorzelanny this season. If he returns to the guy he was in his rookie year then he will take Lilly’s spot in the rotation next year. I expect Starlin Castro to get called sometime during the season so Theriot will move to 2B and Baker/ Fontenot will fight it out a B-up spot and the other will get DFA. D-Lee is going to 35 this year I could see him getting traded if the Cubs suck this year. Maybe to a surpise/ contender like the Mets or Angels. I could see this for next year.
Zambrano
Dempster
Gorzelanny
Wells
Cashner/ J.Jackson
LRP- Sean Marshall
RP- Esmailian Caridad
RP- John Gaub
RP- Angel Guzman
SU- John Grabow
SU- Jeff Samardzija
CL- Carlos Marmol
C- Soto
1B- F/A if not Lee
2B- Ryan Theriot
3B- Aramis Ramirez
SS- Starlin Castro
RF- Marlon Byrd
CF- Brett Jackson
LF- Alfonso Soriano
Let’s be realistic for a minute. Aramis will not get $14.6 mil on the open market, so he will likely stay one more year. Injuries and age say no way. DLee wants to remain a Cub, but, if Cubs throw in the towel by the deadline, he might be very useful in a trade. If Cubs even talk trade, Lee will leave. If not, I bet Lee signs a 2 or 3 year deal with the Cubs. Unless Lilly wins about 17 this year, I doubt Cubs will resign him. So that might be one area this article has right. Pinella is one of the best managers in baseball, and unless he is ready to throw in the towel, he’ll be back next year. It’s not like we are the Pirates here, even if the Cubs don’t sign these guys, they will go out and get some new younger guys to remain competitive. Seriously, this article is not very realistic.